In the news
On 23 July, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed the return of 1,000 prisoners of war in an exchange coordinated in Istanbul. According to him, the returned soldiers were seriously ill or injured. This follows the third round of Russia-Ukraine talks that focused mainly on prisoner swap and return of soldier bodies. The Russian government confirmed the exchange of 3000 more bodies of the soldiers and a brief ceasefire to facilitate the exchange. Discussions also included the possibility of forming three working groups to look at political, military, and humanitarian matters virtually. 

On 21 July, Russia’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov emphasized that there were significant diplomatic hurdles to overcome, as the positions of both sides remain "diametrically opposed." Russia demands that Ukraine give up territories occupied by Russia since the 2022 invasion, while Ukraine insists on Russia ending its attacks and respecting its NATO aspirations. 

On 21 July, Zelenskyy confirmed the Russian air strikes and reported the damage across Kyiv, Kharkiv and Ivano-Frankivsk regions. The attacks were also observed across Sumy, Khmelnitsky, Kirovograd, Nikolayev, and Poltava regions, and in the Kyiv-occupied part of Kherson Region. It involved more than 420 drones and more than 20 missiles, resulting in the deaths of two and 15 injuries. 

On 24 July, a new bill was submitted in Ukraine’s parliament to restore the power of the anti-corruption bodies (National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) and Specialised Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office (SAPO)). This comes after several protesters rallied in Kyiv against the vote for a new law that reduces the independence of the anti-corruption agencies. It also led to criticism and concern across Europe, questioning Ukraine’s anti-corruption reforms and accession into the EU.

On 24 July, Reuters reported on the shipment of Chinese-made L550E engines to Russia under the “industrial refrigeration units” tag to avoid sanctions. These engines are known to boost Russia’s Garpita-A1 drones to target Ukraine. According to the report, the engine and navigation components were exported from Beijing. However, China’s government denies such shipments and affirms complying with international regulations.

Issues at large
First, the limited progress in the direct talks between Ukraine and Russia in Turkey. The first set of negotiations took place in May, when Ukraine and Russia agreed to swap 1,000 prisoners, but no progress was seen towards a ceasefire. During the second round in June, they agreed to exchange severely wounded and ill prisoners along with the return of deceased soldiers. Both Ukraine and Russia presented two sets of memorandums. Russia demanded Ukraine’s withdrawal from the annexed regions (Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia) and abandon its NATO membership goal. Ukraine called for a full ceasefire and security guarantees. These differences continue to remain as the third round of talks fails to achieve any major outcome to pause the war.

Second, Russia’s responses to further sanctions and Trump’s warnings. Moscow continues to be stubborn in its demands to cede the annexed territories from Ukraine and aims to end Ukraine’s accession into NATO. While the West has pledged to accelerate its support to Ukraine through the supply of advanced air defence systems such as Patriot missiles and further the sanctions, except condemnation, there have been no differences in Russia’s offensive on the ground. In the latest Sumy offensive, it claims to have advanced 190 square kilometres into Sumy city. Additionally, it has launched several rounds of missiles and drones across Ukraine, especially in the west, targeting civilian and military infrastructure. While the economic sanctions have begun to extend into entities in China and India, Russia continues its strikes.

Third, China’s support to Russia. Beijing denies supporting Russia in the war, but intelligence reports reveal China being a “strategic enabler” and material supporter of Russia. It is found to have provided lethal aid such as drone engines, navigation systems and micro-electronics through undercover channels. Apart from this, trading through the Yuan and “China Track” platforms has helped Russia reconcile payments, avoiding the SWIFT financial systems of the West. Its support at the technology and economy level has helped Russia to maintain its battlefield stance. The indirect backing of China has helped it to avoid global confrontation, which has been key to prolonging the war.
 
In perspective
An abrupt stall to the ceasefire negotiations, but humanitarian efforts thrive. Ever since Trump took the presidency, the efforts to achieve a temporary ceasefire have been rampant. Despite the continued efforts of the Trump administration and Europe’s sanctions, Russia continues to strike steadily on the ground and remains firm on the negotiations. With no positive signal from Russia to Trump’s 50-day deadline, the US ceasefire mediation efforts have hit a Russian concrete wall with no breakthrough in sight. 

About the author
Padmashree Anandhan is a Project Associate at NIAS.