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IPRI SPECIAL COMMENTARY
Myanmar: Ethnic Armed Organizations, China’s Mediation and Continuing Fighting
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Bibhu Prasad Routray
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Recent Developments
On 5 January, Laukkai, the largest base of the Myanmar military in northern Shan state’s Kokang region was overrun by the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA). Nearly 2,100 soldiers in the facility near the Chinese border laid down their arms. This was the largest surrender by the military during Operation 1027, an offensive that began on 27 October 2023 as part of the Three Brotherhood Alliance (TBA) of ethnic armed organisations (EAOs) comprising the MNDAA, the Ta’ang National Liberation Army and the Arakan Army. In the last three months, 15 cities in northern Shan state have fallen into the hands of the TBA which has seized control of more than 200 military camps, prompting the surrender of some 4,000 troops.
The above developments have led to assumptions that the days of military rule in Myanmar are numbered. The on-ground situation, however, is complex.
China mediated ceasefire in the Shan state
To halt the TBA’s military advance in the Shan state, a China-mediated Haigeng ceasefire agreement was announced on 12 January. This temporary agreement resulted from China’s third attempt since December 2023 at initiating a process of dialogue between the TBA and the military. A previous ceasefire pact reached in mid-December had collapsed as neither side honoured it. Beijing desperately wishes to keep the trade routes between Myanmar and its Yunnan state open, as well as its territory safe from the spillage of continuing clashes. Additionally, it wants to eliminate the online scam centres which have proliferated in the Shan state. However, the ceasefire is only a localised agreement. It is tenuous at its best. The TBA has continued accusing the military of breaking the terms of the ceasefire since day one, by launching ground offensives as well as air strikes.
Continuing fighting in Rakhine and Chin states
There is no such pause to fighting in the western Rakhine and Chin states, where the Arakan Army (AA) has stepped up attacks on military targets since 13 November 2023. Townships such as Kyauktaw, Mrauk-U, Minbya, Pauktaw, and Rathedaung have witnessed escalated clashes between both sides and nearly 160 military bases have been run over by the AA. On 15 January, the AA claimed to have captured Paletwa town, bordering India and Bangladesh, in the Chin state. This led hundreds of Myanmar soldiers to enter India to seek refuge, some of whom have been sent back. On 21 January, the AA carried out a rocket attack on a naval base in the Kyaukphyu township of Rakhine state, prompting a military artillery strike in response, causing more than 1,000 civilians to flee their homes. A similar attack on the base had been carried out by the AA on 8 January. The base is part of the Kyaukphyu deep-sea port complex and is in a special economic zone that is currently being developed by China.
The military’s responses
The Myanmar military Junta continues to face the most difficult challenge to its objective of consolidating power and moving ahead with its plan of holding national elections, in an attempt to legitimise its power grab. Public utterances and moves by the military leaders do portray a growing sense of frustration at not being able to control the attacks by the TBA and People Defence Forces (PDF). Previously the Junta had termed the fighting as something that can break the country apart and resolved to crush it. Over time, it has called on the ethnic organisations (EAOs) groups to solve their problems ‘politically’.
The military is doing everything to avoid operational defeats and loss of key towns and bases. It continues to respond with airstrikes and artillery bombardments, forcing thousands of people to leave their homes. At the same time, however, it has neither been able to bring in reinforcements nor recover the ground it has lost. As Laukkai fell, six brigadier-generals in charge of the base were flown by helicopter to the Northeast Regional Military Command headquarters, and later sent to the capital Naypyidaw. Media reports suggest that they were taken into custody. Later three of them were sentenced to death and three others were jailed for life for abandoning their post. This desperate move by the military leaders can have large repercussions on the troops, affecting their morale and promoting desertion.
Notwithstanding the sense of overarching optimism among the pro-democracy analysts who dominate the English-language media, the Junta looks weak, but its defeat is not imminent. What is being speculated in the ongoing conversations is that the battlefield heroics of the TBA will unleash a rebellion of sorts within the military, forcing the Junta chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing to step down. Divisions between those who want the military to do more to crush the opposition and those who prefer stepping back to initiate a political dialogue may grow further. In mid-January, Ashin Ariawuntha, an ultranationalist Buddhist monk who helped set up pro-junta militias was detained and questioned by authorities. He had asked Min Aung Hlaing to take responsibility for the humiliating defeats and resign. These hopes, however, can only be fanciful and may get dashed. Internal cohesion and support from powerful external forces have kept the military going so far. To break these, more accomplishments would be required from the TBA and the National Unity Government (NUG).
What next?
Although Myanmar remains in a state of bewildering flux, three truisms are evident from the prevailing state of affairs.
First, the State does not necessarily win conflicts that have overstretched. As conflicts linger, the weak opposition finds ways and means to sustain itself, upscale its attacks, and mount serious challenges to the state authorities. This prods the state to be more ruthless in its response, which has a countervailing effect in terms of contributing to the support base of the opposition. Due to the ceaseless and effective attacks by the TBA, the Junta has found itself in a state of shock, and disbelief, and is hard-pressed to end the conflict. However, three years of continued military effort appears to have drained its soldiers of morale and enthusiasm. An outright military victory over the opposition, therefore, is no longer a probable scenario.
Second, in a civil war situation, the path towards victory by either party is never linear. Victory for the pro-democracy forces is not imminent. Serious challenges to be able to continue with the current revolution have emerged. Some well-established EAOs, like the Karen, the Kachin, the Karenni and the Chin, have allied themselves with the NUG. But others such as the bigger groups in Shan State have not. There are indications that even the TBA, which appeared to further the cause of democracy in the country, could gradually be settling for a solution that stops short of defeating the military and allows them to establish their suzerainty over the captured territories. That runs counter to the NUG’s goal. The NUG will have to find a way to keep the TBA and other groups aligned with its objective of making the Junta restore democracy and go back to the barracks.
Third, China is the biggest elephant in the room, with significant leverage to shape the course of the civil war. At the same time, it is not a behemoth which is absolutely in control of the evolving situation. It is not tilted towards the NUG. It merely seeks to convert the recent military gains by the TBA to its advantage. The 5 January capture of Laaukkai, infamous for gambling, prostitution and cybercrime, and the dismantling of these organised crime syndicates by the TBA effectively took care of Chinese concerns of the past several months, which the Junta had been unable to fulfil. Lashio is another town in the northern Shan state that the Chinese are interested in dominating through the TBA, preferably without an all-out clash between the two sides. Ultimately, the Chinese could be working towards a solution in which their projects inside Myanmar are protected by both the military as well as the EAOs.
Developments in the coming weeks and months will throw more light on the trajectory of conflict in Myanmar. As instability in the country appears uninterruptible, the end state is difficult to foresee at this point.
About the author
Dr Bibhu Prasad Routray is the Director of Mantraya, Goa. He was formerly a Deputy Director at the National Security Council Secretariat, Government of India.
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Pakistan and the US
Lekshmi MK
Pakistans Climate and Water Crisis
Global Politics Team
The World Today #255, 16 February 2026
Lekshmi MK
Sanae Takaichis historic win in Japan
Femy Francis
Jimmy Lai sentenced for 20 years in Hong Kong: Who, What, and Why
Yesasvi Koganti | Yesasvi Koganti is an undergraduate student from Madras Christian College, Chennai.
UK and China
Akshath Kaimal | Akshath Kaimal is a Research Assistant at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS)
India-EU Free Trade Agreement: Five Major Takeaways
Preetha Renganarayanan | R Preetha is pursuing post-graduation in the Department of International Studies, Stella Maris College, Chennai, and is a Research Assistant at the National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bengaluru.
The India-US interim trade framework
Lekshmi MK | Lekshmi MK is pursuing post-graduation in the Department of Political Science, Madras Christian College, Chennai, and is a Research Assistant at the National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bengaluru.
End of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START)
IPRI Team
Abu Dhabi Talks on Ukraine I Militant Attacks in Balochistan
Brighty Ann Sarah
US threats against Iran, and Phase Two operations in Gaza
Anu Maria Joseph
Africa: Renewed violence in Ethiopia and a Jihadist attack in Niger
Lekshmi MK
The War in Ukraine: The Trilateral Talks, and the Deadlock over Donetsk & Security Guarantees for Kyiv
Preetha Renganarayanan
The United States: ICE Crackdowns, Rising Resistance and the Political/Legal pushback
Brighty Ann Sarah
The Pentagons National Defence Strategy: Four major takeaways
Preetha Renganarayanan
The Davos Summit 2026
Brighty Ann Sarah
Syria: The State victory over the Syrian Democratic Forces
Brighty Ann Sarah
The War in Gaza: Trumps Board of Peace and the Challenges to Phase Two
Lekshmi MK
Greenland: Trumps escalation-deescalation strategy and Europes defence
Brighty Ann Sarah
Protests in Iran: Continuing Stalemate and Shifting US Position
Lekshmi MK
Ongoing diplomatic push, security deadlock, and strategic manoeuvres
Akshath Kaimal
Thailand-Cambodia: Border disputes, blame game and a fragile ceasefire
Preetha Renganarayanan
US National Security Strategy 2025: Five Major Takeaways of 'Trump Corollary' to the Monroe Doctrine
Preetha Renganarayanan
US-Venezuela Tensions: Military, Diplomatic and Internal Challenges to President Trump
Lekshmi MK
France's President Macron's visit to China: Strengthening bilateral ties, trade, and strategic engagement
Sunidhi Sampige & Tanvi Harendra
President Putin's India Visit: Economic, Military, and Strategic Agreements
Rohini Reenum
One Year of Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire: Continuing Violations and Evolving Endgames
Akriti Sharma
Devastating floods in Southeast and South Asia: High Casualties and Multiple Challenges
Anu Maria Joseph
The G20 Summit: Who said what? Major Takeaways
Brighty Ann Sarah
Israels escalating attack on Hezbollah and Syrias deepening sectarian violence
R Preetha
US-Saudi Arabia Reset: Crown Prince meets the American President and sign key agreements on Defense, AI, Critical Minerals
Akriti Sharma
COP30 Summit at Brazil: Major takeaways
Brighty Ann Sarah
Escalating ceasefire violations and settler violence in Gaza, Israel-Syria tensions, and Israel's pressure on Hezbollah
Akriti Sharma
Climate Change: COP30 begins with full momentum and high expectations
Rohini Reenum
Israel's ceasefire violations in Lebanon: History, Causes and Consequences
Brighty Ann Sarah and Preetha R
The War in Gaza and the 20-point peace plan: An audit of phase one and the pivot to phase two
D Suba Chandran
Women, Peace and Security: 25 Years of UNSC 1325, its achievements and limitations
Neha Tresa George
Thailand and Cambodia: A joint declaration, US-ASEAN intervention and its challenges
Vani Vyshnavi Jupudi
Pakistan and Afghanistan: Military Strikes, Border Clashes and Ceasefire Talks
Brighty Ann Sarah
Breakthrough in Gaza: Trump’s 20-Point Plan, A New Opening, and Its Challenges
Brighty Ann Sarah and R Preetha
The War in Gaza: US Post-War Plans and Global Accountability Efforts
Brighty Ann Sarah and R Preetha
The War in Gaza: The Ceasefire Conundrum, Attack on Gaza City, and Israel's new settlement plans
Abhimanyu Solanki
Pakistan: Cholistan Canal Dispute, Militant Violence & Power Sector Crisis
Ditipriya Ghosh
India and the Maldives: Was Modi’s visit to the Maldives a diplomatic reset?
Brighty Ann Sarah and R Preetha
The War in Gaza: Israel's reoccupation plan and International support for the Two-State Solution
Naomi Miriam Mathew
US-China tariff extension:
Abhiruchi Chowdhury
The Trump-Putin Meeting at Alaska:
Abhiruchi Chowdhury
India-UK FTA and Vision 2035 Framework:
Abhiruchi Chowdhury
Trump’s 50 per cent tariffs on India:
Astha Panda
Bhutan's Ageing Crisis: What do the numbers say about the demographic shift?
Ayush Joshi
Afghanistan: Evolution of Islamic State - Khorasan Province
Vani Vyshnavi Jupudi
China's FDI surge in Pakistan: Numbers, Sectors, and Stakes
Brighty Ann Sarah and R Preetha
The War in Gaza: Failed negotiations, unfolding famine and the mounting international pressure
Swati Sood
The US-EU Trade Deal:
Abhiruchi Chowdhury
Trump tariffs:
Kasvi Batra
Elections for Japan’s Upper House:
Swati Sood
PM Modi’s Visit, India and the Maldives:
Naomi Miriam Mathew
Indian PM Modi’s Visit to Argentina:
Swati Sood
Indian PM Modi's visit to Brazil:
Kasvi Batra
Australian PM Albanese’s visit to China:
Lekshmi MK & Swati Sood
US-EU Tariff tensions:
Lekshmi MK
UN Ocean Conference, Deep Sea Mining and Seabed Exploitation
Lekshmi MK
Ocean Darkening:
Naomi Miriam Mathew
SIPRI 2025 Report on World Nuclear Forces: Nine Major Trends
Rohini Reenum
Syria: Druze-Bedouin clashes and the Israeli intervention
Brighty Ann Sarah, R Preetha, Santhiya M, Aparna A Nair and M Kejia
Israel, Iran, the US and "The 12 Day War" in the Middle East: Claims & Counter Claims
Brighty Ann Sarah
Quad Foreign Ministers Meeting:
Merin Treesa Alex
One Big Beautiful Bill Act:
Kasvi Batra
Prime Ministers visit to Ghana:
M Kejia
PM Modi’s Visit to Trinidad and Tobago:
Astha Panda
Bhutan's Gelephu Gate: Deepening Regional Connectivity
Emma Rose Boby
Declining Media Freedom in Bangladesh: What and Why
Fleur Elizabeth Philip
Thailand and Cambodia
Merin Treesa Alex
Pakistan International Airlines (PIA)
Santhiya M
Russia and Mali bilateral agreements:
Ananya Dinesh
China and the Pacific Islands
Aparna A Nair
China and the Darwin Port:
Farhaz Rashid Ahmed
Five years after George Floyd’s death:
Farhaz Rashid Ahmed
The Awami League is banned in Bangladesh: Why? What next?
Gauri Gupta
Shenzhou-19 Mission: A Profile
M Kejia
G7 Summit 2025:
Aparna A Nair
Second China-Central Asia Summit:
Brighty Ann Sarah, R Preetha, Santhiya M, Aparna A Nair & M Kejia
Operation Midnight Hammer: US bombs three nuclear sites in Iran
Kumari Gargi, Naomi Miriam Matthew, & Fleur Elizabeth Philip
Shangri-La Dialogue 2025: Who said what?
Santhiya M
Cambodia and Thailand: Preah Vihear border dispute and the ICJ interventions
Femy Francis
The US-China:
Lekshmi MK
The UN Ocean Conference in France:
R Preetha
New Zealand: Māori indigenous resistance meets harsh parliament response
Gauri Gupta
The US: Protests against Trump’s immigration raid in Los Angeles
Ananya Dinesh
US-Iran Nuclear Deal
Santhiya M
Nepal’s Republic Day Parade and Pro-Monarchy Protests: Who, What and Why?
Lekshmi MK
Poland's Presidential Elections:
Merin Treesa Alex
South Korea’s Presidential Elections:
Emma Rose Boby
Bangladesh Elections 2026: Who Wants What, When and Why?
M Kejia
Sagarmatha Sambaad in Nepal
Lekshmi MK
Eleven PIC sign a joint statement with China
Merin Treesa Alex
Global Politics Explainer
Fleur Elizabeth Philip
State of Germany-Israel Relations
Aashish Ganeshan
The US:
Fleur Elizabeth Philip
President Macron’s visit to Vietnam, Indonesia & Singapore:
Gauri Gupta
China-ASEAN-GCC Summit:
Ayan Datta
Gaza
Aparna A Nair
UK-EU Summit:
Farhaz Rashid Ahmed
Poland’s Presidential Elections:
Aashish Ganeshan
Elections in Portugal:
Abhiruchi Chowdhury
Presidential elections in Romania:
Femy Francis
China-Pakistan-Afghanistan Foreign Ministers meeting in Beijing
Aashish Ganeshan
US in the Middle Easr
Gauri Gupta
China in Latin America
Lekshmi MK
Turkey:
Padmashree Anandhan
Ukraine:
D Suba Chandran
India and Pakistan:
Abhiruchi Chowdhury
US, Ukraine and Russia:
Fleur Elizabeth Philip
Singapore Elections in 2025:
D Suba Chandran
A Militant attack in J&K:
R Preetha and Brighty Ann Sarah
East Asia:
Padmashree Anandhan
The US-Ukraine
R Preetha
Canada Elections 2025:
Abhishiktha S Kumar
Nepal’s Pro-Monarchy Protests:
Vani Vyshnavi Jupudi
Sri Lanka’s Human-Elephant Conflict: What, Where and Why
Santhiya M
Decline of the Greens since 2005
Brighty Ann Sarah
Explaining the rise of extremism in East Germany
Vaneeta
Canada’s New Prime Minister: Who is Mark Carney? What are his immediate Challenges?
Vaneeta
Trump wants to retake the Panama Canal. Why?
Souparno Rakshit, Emma Rose Boby and Souparnika Suresh
Bangladesh's New Political Party: Who, Why and What for?
Kumari Krishna
Sri Lanka: Seven takeaways of new President's first visit to China
C Shraddha
Trump's Inaugural Address: Five major takeaways
Kumari Krishna
Greenland: What is Trump's new interest? What has been the response from the islanders and the Europeans?
Vaneeta
Who is Nicolás Maduro? And why is there a controversy over his third term?
Vaneeta
Who is Nicolás Maduro? And what next for Venezuela after his third term?
Nupur Priya
Ireland Elections and What's Next?
Ayan Datta
Lebanon’s new President: Who is Aoun? Will he be able to address the mounting challenges?
C Shraddha, Vaishak Sreekumar, Kumari Krishna, Nova Karun K
Why did Justin Trudeau resign? What next for Canada?
Nupur Priya
UN’s Recent Report on Femicides: Six Takeaways
Prajwal TV
Political Crisis in France
Kavithasri M
Busan Plastic Pollution Summit: What happened in Busan? And what didnt?
Ayan Datta
Why Israel is NOT facing a strategic defeat in Gaza: A Response to Stanly Johny
Sayeka Ghosh
07 July 1978: Solomon Islands gains independence from British rule
Karthik Manoharan
05 July 1962: The Algerian War comes to an end
Prajwal TV
01 July 1968: US, Soviet Union, UK and 40 countries sign the Non-Proliferation Treaty
Mayank Bharti
05 July 1996: Dolly becomes the first mammal to be cloned
Ronakk Tijoriwala
01 July 2002: The Rome Statute establishes the International Criminal Court
Deepika Seervi
05 July 1962: Algeria declares its independence, ending 132 years of French occupation
Ayan Datta & Sayeka Ghosh
US Presidential Debate 2024: Trump exposes Biden’s weaknesses, promises stronger America
Dhriti Mukherjee
Haiti: The UN backed Kenyan police force lands
Prajwal T V
Julian Assange: The WikiLeaks founder pleads guilty, ending a long legal stand-off with the US
IPRI Team
The US: President Biden announces new executive order allowing hundreds of thousands of immigrants to get citizenship
IPRI Team
Israeli forces shot Palestinians in West Bank
Dhriti Mukherjee
Mexico Elections 2024: A Historic Moment sees a First Woman President in North America
Dhriti Mukherjee
The US: Jury finds Donald Trump Guilty on 34 counts. Five Takeaways of the verdict
By young scholars of NIAS Course on Global Politics: Contemporary World Order and Theories. Compiled by Sayeka Ghosh.
South Korea Elections 2024: An interview with Dr Sandip Mishra and Dr Vyjayanti Raghavan
By the NIAS-IPRI Course scholars on Contemporary Conflicts, Peace Processes, Theories and Thinkers. Compiled by Ayan Datta.
The War in Gaza: An Interview with Dr Stanly Johny
Rohini Reenum
Ebrahim Raisi: An Untimely Death, and What it means for Iran and its Neighbourhood
NIAS South Asia Team
South Asia This Week (21 Apr- 27 Apr 2024)
NIAS South Asia Team
South Asia This Week (14 Apr -20 Apr 2024)
Devi Chandana M
Seychelles-India Relations: Five Areas of Partnership
Sayeka Ghosh
26 April 1986: Chernobyl nuclear accident
Arya Prasad
Elections in South Korea: Six Takeaways
Sayeka Ghosh
Fukushima Nuclear Disaster, 13 years later: Energy Debate, Safety Concerns and Global Fallouts
Diya Madhavan
The Rise of Temu: A Chinese online shopping app in the US
Ramya B
4 April 1968: Martin Luther King Jr assassinated
NIAS South Asia Team
South Asia This Week (25 Mar- 01 Apr 2024)
T C A Raghavan
March 1739: Nadir Shah invades Delhi
Karthik Manoharan
17 March 1992: The end of Apartheid in South Africa
Rosemary Kurian
18 March 2014: Russia annexes Crimea
Manasa G
14 March 1879: Albert Einstein born in Germany
D Rohan Kumar
11 March 1985: Mikhail Gorbachev becomes the General Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union
Sivasubramanian K
09 March 1776: Adam Smith publishes “The Wealth of Nations”
LS Hareesh
14 March 1849: The Sikh Army surrenders to the British
Ramya B
12 March 1918: Lenin shifts the capital to Moscow
NIAS South Asia Team
South Asia This Week (2-9 Mar 2024)
NIAS South Asia Team
South Asia This Week (26 Feb-02 Mar 2024)
NIAS South Asia Team
South Asia This Week (11-17 Feb 2024)
NIAS Latin America Team
Latin America This Week (3-10 Feb 2024)
NIAS South Asia Team
South Asia This Week (3-10 Feb 2024)
IPRI Team
NIAS-Conflict Weekly Special Alert | The War in Gaza: Fifteenth Week
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Myanmar: Ethnic Armed Organizations, China’s Mediation and Continuing Fighting
Femy Francis
Taiwan Election 2024: The return of DPP
IPRI Team
NIAS-Conflict Weekly Special Alert | The War in Gaza: Fourteenth Week
IPRI Team
NIAS-Conflict Weekly Special Alert | The War in Gaza: Thirteen Week
IPRI Team
NIAS-Conflict Weekly Special Alert | The War in Gaza: Twelfth Week
CEAP Team
NIAS- CEAP- China Reader | Daily Briefs
IPRI Team
NIAS-Conflict Weekly Special Alert | The War in Gaza: Eleventh Week
IPRI Team
NIAS-Conflict Weekly Special Alert | The War in Gaza: Tenth Week
IPRI Team
NIAS-Conflict Weekly Special Alert | The War in Gaza: Nineth Week
IPRI Team
NIAS-Conflict Weekly Special Alert | The War in Gaza: Eigth Week
IPRI Team
NIAS-Conflict Weekly Special Alert | The War in Gaza: Seventh Week
Amit Gupta
The War in Gaza: Consequences for Israel and the US
IPRI Team
NIAS-Conflict Weekly Special Alert | The War in Gaza: Sixth Week
IPRI Team
NIAS-Conflict Weekly Special Alert | The War in Gaza: Fifth Week
IPRI Team
NIAS-Conflict Weekly Special Alert | The War in Gaza: Fourth Week
Prof Joyati Bhattacharya
G20 Summit: India the Global Host
Lakshmi Parimala H
Mural, Movie and the Map: Akhand Bharat mural and Adipurush
Amit Gupta
The Trump Phenomenon: Why it Won’t Go
Vignesh Ram | Assistant Professor | Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Manipal
Malaysia’s recent Elections: More questions than answers
Rashmi BR and Akriti Sharma
COP27: Ten key takeaways
Sethuraman Nadarajan
Israel-Lebanon Maritime Border Deal
Avishka Ashok
G20 Summit: Four takeaways from Bali
Dr Beena
Sri Lanka’s political and economic crisis: Implications for India
Sourina Bej
The UK: Domestic, regional and global challenges to the new Prime Minister
Naina Singh
India-Taiwan Relations: Making a Case for Active Sub-National Diplomacy with Tamil Nadu
Amit Gupta
Afghanistan, AUKUS, and Ukraine: A new strategy for India
Porkkodi Ganeshpandian and Angkuran Dey
The return of the Left
Shalini Balaiah
The Middle East in 2021: Never-ending wars and conflicts
Prakash Panneerselvam
East Asia in 2021: New era of hegemonic competition
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
The unrest in Kazakhstan: Look beyond the trigger
STIR Team
Living with Risks: The Art and Science of Managing Public Risks
Aswathy Koonampilly
Japan: New Prime Minister, Old party
Vineeth Daniel Vinoy
Afghanistan: Who is who in the interim Taliban government? And, what would be the government structure?
Joeana Cera Matthews
Haiti: Two months after the assassination, the storm is still brewing
Lokendra Sharma
Two months of Cuban protests: Is the ‘revolution’ ending?
Bhuvan Ningania
In Afghanistan, the Indian influence will not fade: Four reasons why
Dincy Adlakha
China and Russia in Myanmar: The interests that bind
Jeshil J Samuel
REvil is dead. Long live REvil
Lokendra Sharma
The future of nuclear energy looks bleak
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Five reasons why Afghanistan is closer to a civil war
Joeana Cera Matthews
Farfetched goals on pandemic recovery, climate action and economic revival
Gurpreet Singh
India and the geopolitics of supply chains
Anju Joseph
Timor Leste: Instability continues, despite 19 years of independence
Sarthak Jain
India should invest in technology to meet China's water challenge
Sourina Bej
Fresh election-call mean unending cycle of instability
Vibha Venugopal
The return of Taliban will be bad news for women
Dincy Adlakha
The SCRI will fail before it takes off, for three reasons
Udbhav Krishna P
Revisiting the recent violence: Three takeaways
Joeana Cera Matthews
For the Economist, Taiwan is the most dangerous place. The argument is complicated
Julia Mathew
Though the US is late to the race, it has an edge. Three reasons why
Dhanushaa P
Between "strategic patience" and "grand bargain," Biden's policy options on Pyongyang are limited
SDP Scholars
US, China, and the race to Mars, Cryptocurrencies face a setback as states pose hurdles, Polar Regions and Climate Change
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
The US decision to withdraw is a call made too early. Three reasons why
Rashmi BR
As Russia takes over the Arctic Council chair from Iceland, will it balance its regional and national interests?
Lokendra Sharma
Learning from Cuba's vaccine development efforts
GP Team
The US' Leaders Summit on Climate: Global Issue, Regional Prisms
V S Ramamurthy and Dinesh K Srivastava
An energy mix of renewables and nuclear is the most viable option
Lokendra Sharma
Deadly second wave spirals into a humanitarian disaster
Harini Madhusudan
The Greenland election result is all about eco-geopolitics, and growing Chinese interests
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
The US-Taliban Deal: One Year Later
Akriti Sharma
The Quad Plus and the search beyond the four countries
Avishka Ashok
Despite the economic challenges, there are opportunities for Quad
Apoorva Sudhakar
India's Endgames, Roles and Limitations in Quad
Sukanya Bali
Tracing the Quad's evolution in the last two decades
Apoorva Sudhakar
Ethiopia: Five fallouts of the military offensive in Tigray
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Afghanistan: The recent surge in targeted killing vs the troops withdrawal
Avishka Ashok
In Argentina, an extraordinarily progressive law on abortion brings the Conservatives to protest
Harini Madhusudan
In Poland, the protests against the abortion law feed into anti-government sentiments
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
In Honduras, a move towards a permanent ban on abortion laws
Sukanya Bali
In Thailand, the new abortion law poses more questions
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Civilian protests vs military: Three factors will decide the outcome in Myanmar
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Trump’s Climate Change legacy: Disruption and Denial
Apoorva Sudhakar
Trump’s Iran legacy: Maximum pressure, minimum results
N Manoharan and Drorima Chatterjee
Five ways India can detangle the fishermen issue with Sri Lanka
GP Team
Iran’s decision to enrich its Uranium by 20 per cent: What does it mean?
GP Team
Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP): Global and Regional Implications
D Suba Chandran
The Hazaras protest over burying the dead; PM says don’t blackmail me
D Suba Chandran
The PDM differences, Gwadar fencing, and Lakhvi's arrest
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Nagorno-Karabakh: Rekindled fighting, Causalities and a Ceasefire
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Thailand: For the pro-democracy protests, it is a long march ahead
Mallika Devi
Hong Kong: Slow Strangulation of Protests, Security Law and China's victory
Harini Madhusudan
Brexit: A year of the UK-EU transition talks and finally, a Deal
Kamna Tiwary
Europe: From anti-government protests in Belarus to ‘United for Abortion’ in Poland
Apoorva Sudhakar
Ethiopia: The conflict in Tigray and the regional fallouts
Teshu Singh
India and China: A tense border with compromise unlikely
Sourina Bej
France: Needs to rethink the state-religion relation in battling extremism
Rashmi Ramesh
Abraham Accords: Rethinking Diplomacy and Restructuring Priorities in the Middle East
Aparaajita Pandey
The Americas: Top Five Developments
Teiborlang T Kharsyntiew
Europe: Top five developments
Sandip Kumar Mishra
East Asia: Top Five developments in 2020
Sourina Bej
The Brexit Endgame: A Trade deal, but it is yet to be over for the UK-EU
Harini Madhusudan
Outer Space in 2020: Missions, Privatization, and the Artemis Accords
Gunjan Singh
China and the US in 2020: Year of Continuing Confrontation
Sukanya Bali
5G, Huawei and TikTok: Four trends in 2020
Sumedha Chatterjee
COVID-19: How the world fought in 2020
GP Team
The World This Year: What happened, What paused and What failed
Rashmi Ramesh
Trump legacy leaves negligible space for any policy changes
Harini Madhusudan
The Vaccine Rush: Expectations vs Realities
Harini Madhusudan
Open Skies Treaty: The US should not have withdrawn, for five reasons
Sukanya Bali
Three reasons why the US wants to restrict, but China wants to promote it
Savithri Sellapperumage
Kamala Harris makes history
Harini Madhusudan
Australia joins the Malabar exercise. However, the Quad has a long way to go
Rashmi Ramesh
Climate Change Protests: Now moving out of the COVID-19 shadow
Mallika Devi
China is against the Quad. Five reasons why
Srikumar Pullat
Space of Tomorrow: The Need for Space Security
Harini Madhusudan
Japan- South Korea: Will there be a reset in bilateral relations under the new Japanese PM?
Lokendra Sharma
Bahrain and the UAE have normalized ties with Israel. Five reasons why
Nancy Pathak
Indonesia and the South China Sea: Between the Nine-Dash Line and an EEZ
Shreya Sinha
Despite Brexit, the UK is unlikely to disengage from the EU in their defence and security cooperation. Why?
Kamna Tiwary
Abe's Indo-Pacific legacy: Will the new PM follow it up?
Tamanna Khosla
Japan: New Prime Minister, Old Challenges
Vaishali Handique
Not just regime change: Women and protest movements in Sudan
Sneha Tadkal
Technology in contemporary global protest movements
Unnikrishnan M J
Rise of the middle class: Independence protest movements in Catalonia
Rashmi Ramesh
#FridaysforFuture: The global protests against Climate Change
A Padmashree
Looking Inwards: The anti-government protests in Iran
Oviya A J
#NiUnaMenos: Women and protest movements in Latin America
Harini Sha P
Solve economic crisis: Indigenous movements in Latin America
Chavindi Weerawansha
Students as agents of change: Protest movements in Zimbabwe
Arjun C
Digital platforms as tools: Rise of Anti-Fracking protest movements across the world
Anju Annie Mammen
“Unveiling”: Women and protest movements in the Middle East
Harini Madhusudan
‘The Revolution of Our Times’: Protests in Hong Kong
Sourina Bej
‘The yellow vests will triumph’: The middle and working class protests in France
Lakshmi V Menon
Will the Abraham Accord lead to peace, or is it the end of Palestine state?
Samreen Wani
Lebanon: Can Macron's visit prevent the unravelling?
Sankalp Gurjar
In Sudan, the government signs an agreement with the rebels. However, there are serious challenges
Harini Madhusudan
The Legacy of Shinzo Abe. It is Complicated.
Sourina Bej
Despite the UK ban, it is not over yet for China. For three reasons.
Harini Madhusudan
A Zero-Sum Game: At the core of the US-China rivalry, is an Isolate-China policy
Samreen Wani
Iran Nuclear Deal: It is time to write the obituary, for three reasons
Padmashree A
Yemen and Oil, MBS’s two-path destruction in Saudi Arabia
Boa Wang
Two Sessions in Beijing
Adnan Aziz Chowdhury
For Bangladesh, it was Nationwide Lockdown, Checking High Inflation & Critical Social Media
Mahesh Bhatta
For Nepal, it is effective local governments, educative media, and India-Nepal health diplomacy
Boa Wang
How China fought the COVID-19
N. Manoharan
Is COVID-19 a Bio-weapon from China?
Prof PM Soundar Rajan
Is there an overlap of 5G Networks and COVID hotspots?
Harini Sha P
The problem is not just Haftar. It is the international hunger for the Libyan Oil
Rashmi Ramesh
Will COVID-19 provide a new agenda to the NAM?
Sourina Bej
EU, minus the US, leads the global cooperation for the vaccine
D. Suba Chandran
Healing needs Forgiveness, Accountability, Responsibility and Justice
Harini Madhusudan
Iran's New Military Satellite: Does it violate the UNSC 2231?
La Toya Waha
One year after the Easter Attacks in Sri Lanka: Have the Islamists Won?
Jenice Jean Goveas
Epidemics through History
Sanduni Atapattu
Preventing hatred and suspicion would be a bigger struggle
Chavindi Weerawansha
A majority in the minority community suffers, for the action of a few
Chrishari de Alwis Gunasekare
The Cardinal sermons for peace, with a message to forgive
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Who and Why of the Perpetrators
Natasha Fernando
In retrospect, where did we go wrong?
Ruwanthi Jayasekara
Build the power of Co-existence, Trust, Gender and Awareness
N Manoharan
New ethnic faultlines at macro and micro levels
Asanga Abeyagoonasekera
A year has gone, but the pain has not vanished
Kabi Adhikari
In Nepal, it is a struggle for the women out of the patriarchal shadows
Jenice Jean Goveas
In India, the glass is half full for the women
Fatemah Ghafori
In Afghanistan, there is no going back for the women
Sukanya Bali
One month after the deal with the Taliban: Problems Four, Progress None
Lakshmi V Menon
The decline in terrorism in Pakistan in 2019
Rashmi Ramesh
The EU and the Arctic: The interest is not mutual. Why?
Rashmi Ramesh
Iceland, Denmark and Norway: Small is Big in the Arctic
Harini Madhusudan
The Non-Arctic powers: Interests of Japan and South Korea
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Malaysia: New PM, Old Challenges
La Toya Waha
The Bar Shooting in Germany: Just an act of a crazy individual?
Rohej Khatiwada
Small countries in the SAARC: Will they succeed in reviving regional cooperation?
Lakshmi V Menon
Pakistan to remain “Grey”; North Korea and Iran in “Black”
Rashmi Ramesh
Trump's India Visit: Optics, Substance and Rhetoric
Kabi Adhikari
The controversial MCC Nepal Compact
Malini Sethuraman
ISIS post Baghdadi: Will there be another Caliphate in 2020?
Aarathi Srinivasan
Climate Change: The Economy of the Indian Ocean Region in 2020
Roshni Sharma
Climate Change: The New Refugees Paradox in South and East Asia in 2020
Rashmi Ramesh
Addressing Climate Change: Calamities, Risks and Protests in 2020
Dhruv Ashok
India-Pakistan Relation: Will it get worse in 2020?
Prathiksha Ravi
Israel and the Middle East: The New Alliance Plans in 2020
Aswathy K
The US in the Middle East: Flux or Status Quo in 2020?
Padmini Anilkumar
Middle East: The Return of Russia in 2020
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Sudan and Algeria: Road to Democracy in 2020
Lakshmi V Menon
Syria: ISIS Decline, US Retreat and the Return of Russia in 2020
Sourina Bej
The Pangs of BREXIT: UK's Tough Transition in 2020
Sukanya Bali
The Belt and Road Initiative: A New Global Connectivity Map in 2020
Harini Madhusudan
The US-China Trade Dispute: Towards further disruptions in 2020
Parikshith Pradeep
The US under Donald Trump: The Fall of an Empire in 2020
Boa Wang
China in 2019: 70th Anniversary, Rise of Domestic Animation and the Commercialization of 5G
Vivek Mishra
After Soleimani assassination: Options for the US
Sukanya Bali
Iran, Iraq and the US: Who wants what?
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Old problems to persist with no solutions in the near term
Aashiyana Adhikari
Indian and Chinese investments in Nepal: Managing asymmetry
Shailesh Nayak | Director, National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS)
Blue Economy and India: An Introduction
Lakshmi V Menon
The Middle East in 2019: Domestic Protests, Bilateral Conflicts and Regional Tensions
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
North Africa in 2019: A year of protests, with some positive results
Sukanya Bali
Hong Kong in 2019: China's New Achilles Heel
Harini Madhusudan
The US-China Trade Dispute in 2019: Towards a thaw in 2020?
Parikshith Pradeep
The US in 2019: Trump rollsout a template for a global American retreat
Sourina Bej
Europe in 2019: Hard Brexit for the UK, Systemic Struggle for the EU
Rashmi Ramesh
Climate Change in 2019: Active Civil Society, Hesitant State
Rashmi Ramesh
The Arctic Littorals: Iceland and Greenland
Harini Madhusudan
The Polar Silk Route: China's ambitious search in the Arctic
Parikshith Pradeep
The Scientific Imbalance: Is technology rightly being invested in the Arctic?
GP Team
Syria: Who wants what?
Harini Madhusudan
Violence in Hong Kong: Will the protests end?
Rashmi Ramesh
Is Catalonia Spain’s Hong Kong?
Sourina Bej
As the Brexit deadline nears: Three Implications of Boris Johnson’s Election Call
D. Suba Chandran
Why an Arctic foray is essential for India
Parikshith Pradeep
Russia's Polar Military Edge
Nidhi Dalal
Protests rock Chile, Bolivia and Haiti
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Will prosecuting Suu Kyi resolve the Rohingya problem?
Sourina Bej
Sheikh Hasina in New Delhi: Multiple Deals, No Takeaways
Lakshman Chakravarthy N & Rashmi Ramesh
Climate Change: Four Actors, No Action
Sukanya Bali
Brexit: Preparing for the Worst Case
Lakshman Chakravarthy N
5G: A Primer
Rashmi Ramesh
From Okjökull to OK: Death of a Glacier in Iceland
Sukanya Bali
Challenges before Boris Johnson
Parikshith Pradeep
The Hong Kong Protests: Who wants what
Harini Madhusudan
The Hong Kong Protests: Re-defining mass mobilization
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
ASEAN Outlook on the Indo Pacific: Worth all the Hype?
Mahesh Bhatta
Monsoons first, Floods next and the Blame Games follow
Titsala Sangtam
Counting Citizens: Manipur charts its own NRC
Vivek Mishra
Can Hedging be India’s Strategy?
Lakshmi V Menon
Amidst the US-Iran standoff, Saudi Arabia should be cautious
Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer
For Russia, it was big power projection
Harini Madhusudan
For China, it was trade and a temporary truce
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
For Japan, it was commerce and climate change
Sourina Bej
For the US, it was trade, tariff and talks
Mahath Mangal
Iran, US and the Nuclear Deal: Will Russia remain neutral?
Titsala Sangtam
Iran, US and the Nuclear deal: Europe in the middle?
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Modi's Colombo Visit: Four issues to watch
Sourina Bej
From Moscow to Manila: Attack on Journalists, Public Protests and Culture of Impunity
Harini Madhusudan
Thirty years after Tiananmen: What remains in the popular memory and what doesn’t
Raakhavee Ramesh
Higher than the Himalayas: Pakistan and China
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Across the Himalayas: Nepal and China
Mahath Mangal
The Russian Resurgence: Is the US supremacy waning?
Mahath Mangal
San Francisco wants to ban, Kashgar wants to expand
Jerin George
Espionage or Investigative Journalism?
Titsala Sangtam
Beyond the Kuril Island Dispute: Tensions between Moscow and Tokyo
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
The Huawei Controversy: Five things you need to know
Mahath Mangal
Why the world needs to look at Yemen
Sourina Bej
Modi's Foreign Policy 2.0: A Response to C Raja Mohan
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
The Central Asia Connector
Harini Madhusudan
An Under-represented East Asia
Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer
Africa Embraces the Belt and Road
Sourina Bej
It’s Europe vs EU on China
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Sudan: Between Democracy and another military rule
Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer
Responses and Inspiring Lessons
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Thailand: Between Elections and Instability
Ryan Mitra
Malaysia, China and the BRI: The Delicate Hedging
Sourina Bej
Two Sessions in 2019: Four Takeaways
Lakshmi V Menon
The End of ISIS Caliphate?
Harini Madhusudan
For China, its a sigh of relief
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
For Vietnam, its a big deal
Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer
For Japan, No Deal is Good Deal
Sourina Bej
For South Korea, a costly disappointment
Harini Madhusudan
No deal is better, but isn't it bad?
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
The Other Conflict in Rakhine State
Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer
Yemen: Will Sa'nna fall?
Harini Madhusudan
Sinicizing the Minorities
Lakshmi V Menon
The Qatar Blockade: Eighteen Months Later
Sourina Bej
Maghreb: What makes al Shahab Resilient?
Harini Madhusudan
US-China Trade War: No Clear Winners
Abhishrut Singh
Trump’s Shutdown: Five Things to Know
Kriti
Afghanistan: Why Trump’s decision to withdraw will create more instability
Komal Tiwary
Syria: Why Trump’s decision to withdraw is a right one but at a wrong time
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Myanmar: Will 2019 be better for the Rohingya?
D. Suba Chandran
Bangladesh: The Burden of Electoral History
Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer
US and China: Between Confrontation and Competition
Mahesh Bhatta | Centre for South Asian Studies, Kathmandu
Nepal
Nasima Khatoon | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS
The Maldives
Harini Madhusudan | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS
India
Sourina Bej | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS
Bangladesh
Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS
Afghanistan
Harini Madhusudan
China and Japan: Renewing relations at the right time
Ryan Mitra
The INF Treaty: Towards a new Security Dilemma
Sourina Bej
The INF Treaty: US withdraws to balance China?
Harini Madhusudan
The Khashoggi Killing: Unanswered Questions
Divyabharathi E
The Economic Crisis and the Saudi Investments: What are the Fallouts?
Lakshmi V Menon
US and Israel: Trump's Deal of the Century
Nasima Khatoon
The New Maldives: Advantage India?
Harini Madhusudhan
To NAFTA or Not: Trump, Mexico and Canada
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Malaysia’s China Moment: The Mahathir Gamble
Sourina Bej
BIMSTEC: A Bay of Good Hope?
Ryan Mitra
India between the US and Iran: The Art of Balancing Two States
Hely Desai
Two Years of Brexit: The Reverse-Domino Effect
Young Scholars Debate
India, Imran Khan and Indo-Pak Relations
Siddhatti Mehta
Does Brexit mean Brexit?
Oishee Majumdar
Factsheet: China’s Investments in Africa
Sourina Bej
Post Trump-Putin Summit: How significant is the Russia threat to Europe?
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
The 8888 Uprising: Thirty Years Later
Harini Madhusudhan
The Tariff War: 'Stick of Hegemony' vs Vital Interests
Druta Bhatt
FactSheet: Shangri La Dialogue 2018
Rahul Arockiaraj
Immigrants as the “Other”: The Social and Economic Factors in the US
Divyabharathi E
Is Trump-Putin Summit a setback for the US?
Apoorva Sudhakar
India and Bangladesh: The Long Haul
Divyabharathi E
Quad as an alternative to the BRI: Three Main Challenges
Oishee Majumdar
FactSheet: India-Bangladesh Relations
D. Suba Chandran
Trump meets Putin; will it cost NATO?
Sourina Bej
Trump and the NATO: One Block, Different Views
Rahul Arockiaraj
Zero Tolerance on Illegal Immigration: Explaining Trump’s strategy and the American Spirit
Gayan Gowramma KC
Now, the United States withdraws from the UNHRC
Druta Bhatt
Electoral Rise of the Right: From Trump to Brexit
Siddhatti Mehta
Will China be able to sustain its Dominance?
Miti Shah
Is religion redefining nationalism?: The Case of Myanmar, India and Sri Lanka
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Myanmar: Why won't they do anything for the Rohingya?
Harini Madhusudan
The Idea of an US Space Force: Strategic Calculations
Apoorva Sudhakar
Afghan Peace: Reality or Illusion?
Hely Desai
Looking beyond Trump: Is the US declining?
Manushi Kapadia
Is China using its soft power to become superpower?
Lakshmi. V. Menon
Middle East: Has Russia chosen Israel over Iran?
Divyabharathi E
India and Seychelles: Is the Assumption Deal a Game Changer in the Indian Ocean?
Miti Shah
G7: Why Trump wants Russia in?
Hely Desai
FactSheet: G7 Summit
Siddhatti Mehta
The Panmunjom Declaration: “Tip of the Iceberg”
Druta Bhatt
Iran N-Deal and the Trans-Atlantic Divide
Manushi Kapadia
US and China: Towards a Trade War
Miti Shah
Palestine: US triggers new tensions
Divyabharathi E
The "Indo-Pacific Command": What's in the name?
Harini Madhusudan
Trump’s Tariff Strategy: Targetting Adversaries and Allies
Hely Desai
Trump-Kim Summit: Three Likely Outcomes
Apoorva Sudhakar
The Lebanon Pawn: Will it change after elections?
Lakshmi V Menon
Israel, the Game Changer?
Samreen Wani
Deciphering Turkey's External Push
Divyabharathi E
China and Russia: The New Alignments
Ann Maria Shibu
Can India afford to lose Maldives to China?
Dhruv Ashok
Why Maldives is important to China?
Lakshmi V Menon
ISIS and the Yazidi victims: Why the World should stand up?
Harini Madhusudan
US- China Tariff Face-off : Five questions
Jamyang Dolma
Why is Free Tibet important for India
Divyabharathi E
Arctic: The Strategic Significance
Lakshmi V Menon
Do we need the Quad?
Samreen Wani
Why Trump’s Iran exit is a big mistake?
Jamyang Dolma
Inter Korean Summit: Will it work?
Shalini E
What prevents India and Nepal from moving forward?
Dhruv Ashok
The Fishermen Issue between India and Sri Lanka
Apoorva Sudhakar
Bangladesh's Economy: Decoding a Success Story
Ann Maria Shibu
Why India should not pull out of the Indus water treaty?
Divyabharathi E
Quad and India's Strategic Dilemma
Samreen Wani