NIAS Area Studies


PAKISTAN READER

Photo Source: EPA
   NIAS Course on Global Politics
National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS)
Indian Institute of Science Campus, Bangalore
For any further information or to subscribe to GP alerts send an email to subachandran@nias.res.in

Continuing Israel-Hezbollah Confrontation

  Brighty Ann Sarah

Conflict Weekly Note

In the news
On 12 March, Hezbollah and the IRGC, in a coordinated strike, launched a barrage of over 200 missiles targeting Israel, in a steep escalation of hostilities. In response, Israel’s Defence Minister, Israel Katz, stated that the Israeli military has been instructed to expand its operations in Lebanon. Katz warned Lebanese President Joseph Aoun that if the Lebanese government could not prevent Hezbollah from attacking Israel, Israel "would do it ourselves.”

On 13 March, Defence Minister Katz stated that the IDF is expanding its military operations in Lebanon, issuing evacuation orders and launching strikes at the heart of Beirut. He threatened to unleash Gaza-scale destruction. Hezbollah’s leader, Naim Qassem, responded that the group has “prepared ourselves for a long confrontation.” On the same day, the Norwegian Refugee Council stated that Israel's evacuation orders for southern Lebanon and parts of Beirut now covered about 1,470 square kilometres or about 14 per cent of the country. Israeli officials also stated that the displaced population will not be allowed to return to their homes until Israeli citizens are safe from the threat of Hezbollah

On 16 March, Israeli officials indicated that Israel and Lebanon are expected to hold talks, but President Aoun’s demands for a ceasefire are questionable.

On 18 March, Reuters reported that Israel has more than doubled the number of troops along its border with Lebanon and is searching homes in southern Lebanese villages that the military has ordered to evacuate.

On 19 March, Israeli forces declared that two landbridges over the Litani River, connecting southern Lebanon with the rest of the country, had been destroyed in strikes.

Issues at large
1. A brief note on the geographic and demographic importance of the southern Lebanon and Israel-Hezbollah confrontations
Israel’s strikes are closely concentrated across south Lebanon, directly adjacent to Israel's northern border. Geographically, the south, precisely the border strip south of the Litani River was the zone Hezbollah was required to vacate under UN Security Council Resolution 1701, 2006. Hezbollah never fully complied; instead, it rebuilt its military capabilities there. For Hezbollah, this region is also the primary operational zone, hosting most of its military assets and command centres, and the hilly and rugged terrain is suitable for guerrilla operations.

Demographically, southern Lebanon is the heartland of Lebanon's Shia Muslim community, which forms Hezbollah's core support base and recruitment pool. The group has dominated the areas for decades through military control, social services and political influence. For Israel, operations here directly disrupt Hezbollah's grassroots infrastructure and forward-deployed personnel. Similarly, in Beirut, the southern suburb of Dahiyeh is also a Hezbollah stronghold, hosting a large Shia population, displaced by Israeli attacks in south Lebanon since the 2006 war.

2. Israel’s reluctance to negotiate with Lebanon and Beirut’s weak control over Hezbollah
Israel's reluctance to negotiate stems from a deep scepticism toward the Lebanese government’s ability to deliver on its commitments to disarm Hezbollah. Beirut’s incapacity in enforcing previous agreements and curbing Hezbollah militarily has significantly weakened its diplomatic position with Tel Aviv. The administration lacks both the military capacity and political will against Hezbollah’s political and military stronghold in the country. The administration's fear of triggering an internal collapse allows Hezbollah to act independently, aligning with Iranian interests.  

3. Israel’s strategic interests in southern Lebanon and the Litani River
Israel regards the Litani River as its ”natural northern border,” which functions as a de facto “red line” and geographic buffer. Israel's operations in the region claim to create a temporary “forward defence area” or security perimeter south of the Litani by pushing Hezbollah northward and neutralising its infrastructure to enforce the demilitarised buffer without permanent annexation. Israel seeks to depopulate the southern strip and extend military control over the region to prevent the resurgence of Hezbollah in the territory, securing Tel Aviv’s northern borders.

In perspective
Israel’s targeted strikes in southern Lebanon and Beirut’s southern suburbs are a dual-pronged strategy to reduce Hezbollah's military and operational capacity and also its hold over these sub-regions. By hitting its core infrastructure, command centres, launch sites and tunnel networks, Israel aims to erode Hezbollah’s ability to carry out cross-border operations.

Second, Israel’s strikes also mark an attempt to erode Hezbollah's domestic support among its most loyal Shia base by triggering widespread public frustration over persistent destruction and suffering, while simultaneously dispersing the population through mass evacuation orders, repeated bombardments and displacement. This forced relocation prevents the formation of a unified collective force or resistance network and fosters resentment toward Hezbollah for "dragging" Lebanon into war on Iran's behalf. Over time, such a strain could complicate Hezbollah’s standing domestically, potentially making it easier for the administration of Lebanon to push more firmly for restrictions or disarmament, especially if public support for the group becomes more fragmented.

 

Click here for recent and related publications:
Brighty Ann SarahContinuing Israel-Hezbollah Confrontation: Attacks in South Lebanon, Beirut’s Conundrum, and Tel Aviv’s Greater Goals,” Conflict Weekly #323, 13 March 2026

Print Bookmark

August 2026 | CWA # 2241

Urja R Kudalkar | Urja R Kudalkar is a postgraduate student at the Department of Public Policy, Ramaiah University of Applied Sciences, RUAS, Bengaluru. She is currently a research intern at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

The Board of Peace Plan for Gaza:
August 2026 | CWA # 2235

Adwaith Sankar | Adwaith Sankar is an undergraduate student pursuing Political Science and International Liberal Studies through the NUS-Waseda Double Degree Programme. He is currently an intern at NIAS.

Southeast Asia (April-June 2026)
August 2026 | CWA # 2232

Dattesh D Parulekar | Dr Dattesh D. Parulekar is an Assistant Professor at the School of International and Area Studies, Goa University.

Latin America (Apr-Jun 2026):
August 2026 | CWA # 2226

Nithin V | Nithin V is a postgraduate student in International Relations, with an interest in geopolitics, international political economy, and climate governance. He is currently an intern at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

Colombia's ban on Female Genital Mutilation:
August 2026 | CWA # 2222

Namrata L Ghanghatkar, Priyanka Makhijani and Urja R Kudalkar | Namrata L Ghanghatkar, Priyanka Makhijani, Urja R Kudalkar are postgraduate students at the Department of Public Policy, Ramaiah University of Applied Sciences. They are currently Research interns at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS)

Peru's new President Netanyahu's Washington visit
July 2026 | CWA # 2217

Namrata L Ghanghatkar, Priyanka Makhijani, Urja R Kudalkar | Namrata L Ghanghatkar, Priyanka Makhijani, Urja R Kudalkar are postgraduate students at the Department of Public Policy, Ramaiah University of Applied Sciences. They are currently Research interns at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS)

The Berlin Pride attack
July 2026 | CWA # 2216

Manikranth Chakravarthula | Manikranth Chakravarthula is a doctoral student at the Conflict Resolution and Peace Research Programme, School of Conflict and Security Studies, National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bengaluru.

The Houthis:
July 2026 | CWA # 2213

Brighty Ann Sarah | Brighty Ann Sarah is a Research Assistant at the National Institute of Advanced Studies. Bengaluru

The US-Iran War, Week 22:
July 2026 | CWA # 2211

Priyanka Makhijani | Priyanka Makhijani is a postgraduate student at the department of Public Policy, School of Social Science, Ramaiah University of Applied science. She is currently an intern at NIAS.

AI's Rogue Agent Breach:
July 2026 | CWA # 2210

Adwaith Sankar | Adwaith Sankar is an undergraduate student pursuing Political Science and International Liberal Studies through the NUS-Waseda Double Degree Programme. He is currently an intern at NIAS.

ASEAN Regional Forum:
July 2026 | CWA # 2209

Namrata L Ghanghatkar | Namrata L Ghanghatkar is a postgraduate student at the Department of Public Policy, Ramaiah University of Applied Sciences, Bengaluru. She is currently a research intern at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS).

The return of US-Canada Tariff Tensions:
July 2026 | CWA # 2208

Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella | Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella is an undergraduate student from the Department of Political Science, School of Liberal Arts, Alliance University, Bengaluru. She is currently an intern at NIAS.

The US-Saudi Arabia Nuclear Cooperation Agreement:
July 2026 | CWA # 2204

Brighty Ann Sarah | Brighty Ann Sarah is a Research Assistant at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

The Houthis target Saudi Arabia:
July 2026 | CWA # 2203

Brighty Ann Sarah | Brighty Ann Sarah is a Research Assistant at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

US-Iran War, Week 21:
July 2026 | CWA # 2197

Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella | Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella is an undergraduate student from the Department of Political Science, School of Liberal Arts, Alliance University, Bengaluru. She is currently an intern at NIAS.

The US-Iran War, Week 20:
July 2026 | CWA # 2195

Radhika M Agarwal | Radhika M Agarwal is a an internt at NIAS and also a postgraduate student at the Department of Politics and International Relations in Pandit Deendayal Energy University, Gandhinagar.

The C5+1 Critical Minerals Dialogue: 
July 2026 | CWA # 2189

Dhivya KM | Dhivya K M is an intern at NIAS and is also a postgraduate student from the Department of Financial Economics, Madras School of Economics, Chennai.

The IMF World Economic Outlook: 
July 2026 | CWA # 2184

Deb Dutta | Deb Dutta completed his graduation from the Department of Political Science, Sir Aurobindo International Centre of Education (SAICE), Puducherry. He is currently an intern at NIAS.

UNHCR Global Trends Report 2025: 
July 2026 | CWA # 2180

Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella | Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella is an undergraduate student from the Department of Political Science, School of Liberal Arts, Alliance University, Bengaluru. She is currently an intern at NIAS.

Iran after Ali Khamenei
July 2026 | CWA # 2177

Deb Dutta | Deb Dutta completed his graduation from the Department of Political Science, Sir Aurobindo International Centre of Education (SAICE), Puducherry. He is currently an intern at NIAS.

PM Takaichi's India visit: 
July 2026 | CWA # 2174

Yesasvi Koganti | Yesasvi Koganti is an undergraduate student at the Department of Political Science, Madras Christian College, Chennai. She is also an intern at NIAS, Bengaluru. 

The Israel-Lebanon Framework:
July 2026 | CWA # 2172

Brighty Ann Sarah | Brighty Ann Sarah is a Research Assistant with the Global Politics team at the Science, Technology and International Relations (STIR) Programme at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

The US-Iran negotiations:
June 2026 | CWA # 2164

Shreya Upadhyay | Dr Shreya Upadhyay is an Assistant Professor at Christ (deemed to be) University, Bengaluru, and Fellow, Kalinga Institute of Indo-Pacific Studies.

The United States (April-June 2026)
June 2026 | CWA # 2159

Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella | Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella is an undergraduate student from the Department of Political Science, School of Liberal Arts, Alliance University, Bengaluru. She is currently an intern at NIAS.

The US-Iran MoU
June 2026 | CWA # 2151

Rohini Reenum | Rohini Reenum is a doctoral student at NIAS. She is working on Governance in Areas Beyond National Jurisdiction using the case study of the BBNJ Agreement.

Israel's Ultra-Orthodox Jews:
June 2026 | CWA # 2149

Brighty Ann Sarah | Brighty Ann Sarah is a Research Assistant with the Global Politics team at the Science, Technology and International Relations (STIR) Programme at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

The US-Iran MoU:
June 2026 | CWA # 2136

Acsah H | Acsah H is a postgraduate student at the Department of Geopolitics and International Relations, Manipal Institute of Social Sciences, Humanities and Arts, MAHE, Manipal, Udupi. She is currently a research intern at NIAS.

The Blue Origin Rocket Explosion:
June 2026 | CWA # 2135

Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella | Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella is an undergraduate from the Department of Political Science, School of Liberal Arts, Alliance University, Bengaluru. She is currently an intern at NIAS.

Shangri-La Dialogue 2026:
June 2026 | CWA # 2134

Aishal Hab Yousuf | Aishal Hab Yousuf is a postgraduate student at the Department of International Studies. Stella Maris College, Chennai. She is currently an intern at NIAS, Bengaluru.

Shangri-La Dialogue 2026: Four Major Takeaways
June 2026 | CWA # 2132

Brighty Ann Sarah | Brighty Ann Sarah is a Research Assistant with the Global Politics team at the Science, Technology and International Relations (STIR) Programme at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

The US-Iran War, Week Fourteen:
June 2026 | CWA # 2131

Rohini Reenum | Rohini Reenum is a doctoral student at NIAS. She is working on Governance in Areas Beyond National Jurisdiction using the case study of the BBNJ Agreement.

Israel-Lebanon Tensions:
May 2026 | CWA # 2127

Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella | Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella is an undergraduate from the Department of Political Science, School of Liberal Arts, Alliance University, Bengaluru

The Quad Foreign Ministers' Meeting 2026:
May 2026 | CWA # 2124

Glynnis Winona B | Glynnis Winona B is an undergraduate student at the Department of International Relations, Peace Studies, and Public Policy, St. Joseph's University, Bengaluru. She is currently an intern at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengalur

The Crisis in Cuba:
May 2026 | CWA # 2121

Deb Dutta | Deb Dutta completed his graduation from the Department of Political Science, Sir Aurobindo International Centre of Education (SAICE), Puducherry. He is currently an intern at NIAS.

Israel, Lebanon, Hezbollah, and the Border Tensions:
May 2026 | CWA # 2120

Brighty Ann Sarah | Brighty Ann Sarah is a Research Assistant with the Global Politics team at the Science, Technology and International Relations (STIR) Programme at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

Conflicts in the Middle East
May 2026 | CWA # 2116

Yesasvi Koganti | Yesasvi Koganti is currently pursuing undergraduate studies at the Department of Political Science, Madras Christian College, Chennai. 

India, the UAE, and PM Modi’s visit:
May 2026 | CWA # 2114

Glynnis Winona B | Glynnis Winona B is an undergraduate student at the Department of International Relations, Peace Studies and Public Policy, St. Joseph's University, Bengaluru. She is currently an intern at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru

What makes the UAE a global player?
May 2026 | CWA # 2112

Nithin V | Nithin V is a postgraduate student in international relations at Loyola College, Chennai. He is currently an intern at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

Why does the Falkland Islands dispute keep recurring?
May 2026 | CWA # 2109

Aishal Hab Yousuf | Aishal Hab Yousuf is a postgraduate student at the Department of International Studies, Stella Maris College, Chennai. She is currently an intern at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

North Korea's Constitutional Amendment 2026:
May 2026 | CWA # 2104

Brighty Ann Sarah | Brighty Ann Sarah is a Research Assistant with the Global Politics team at the Science, Technology and International Relations (STIR) Programme at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

The Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire:
May 2026 | CWA # 2091

Brighty Ann Sarah | Brighty Ann Sarah is a Research Assistant with the Global Politics team at the Science, Technology and International Relations (STIR) Programme at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

Conflicts in the Middle East:
May 2026 | CWA # 2090

Brighty Ann Sarah | Brighty Ann Sarah is a Research Assistant with the Global Politics team at the Science, Technology and International Relations (STIR) Programme at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

The US-Iran War, Week Ten:
May 2026 | CWA # 2088

Nithin V | Nithin V is a postgraduate student in International Relations, with an interest in geopolitics, international political economy, and climate governance. He is currently an intern at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

King Charles's US Visit:
May 2026 | CWA # 2087

Siddhi Halyur | Siddhi Halyur is an undergraduate student at the Department of International Relations, Public Policy and Journalism at St Joseph's University, Bengaluru. She is currently an intern at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

Japan, Vietnam and PM Takaichis Visit
May 2026 | CWA # 2086

Aishal Hab Yousuf | Aishal Hab Yousuf is a postgraduate student at the Department of International Studies, Stella Maris College, Chennai. She is currently an intern at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

UAE's Exit from OPEC:
May 2026 | CWA # 2085

Glynnis Winona B | Glynnis Winona B is an undergraduate student at the Department of International Relations, Peace Studies and Public Policy, St. Joseph's University, Bengaluru. She is currently an intern at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru

US troop withdrawal from Germany:
May 2026 | CWA # 2083

Brighty Ann Sarah | Brighty Ann Sarah is a Research Assistant with the Global Politics team at the Science, Technology and International Relations (STIR) Programme at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

The US-Iran War, Week Nine:
May 2026 | CWA # 2081

Jenin Raj S | Dr Jenin Raj S is an Assistant Professor and Head of the Centre for Media, Department of Journalism, Mount Carmel College (Autonomous), Bengaluru.

Media freedom hits a 25-year low:
April 2026 | CWA # 2079

Aishal Hab Yousuf | Aishal Hab Yousuf, Postgraduate student, Department of International Studies, Stella Maris College, Chennai. She is currently an intern at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

Japans New Defence Posture:
April 2026 | CWA # 2074

Brighty Ann Sarah | Ms Sarah is a Research Assistant at NIAS and Assistant Editor of NIAS Conflict Weekly.

Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire:
April 2026 | CWA # 2073

Akshath Kaimal | Mr Kaimal is a Research Assistant at NIAS. He works on Pakistan and Africa.

The US-Iran War, Week Eight:
April 2026 | CWA # 2065

Lakshmi Venugopal Menon | Dr Lakshmi Venugopal Menon is an academic and policy researcher specializing in Gulf studies, cultural heritage trafficking, geopolitics, migration, Afghan politics and the Taliban.

The Middle East (JanMar 2026):
March 2026 | CWA # 2042

Preetha Renganarayanan

March 2026 | CWA # 2001

Preetha Renganarayanan

February 2026 | CWA # 1986

Preetha Renganarayanan

February 2026 | CWA # 1959

Yesasvi Koganti | Yesasvi Koganti is an undergraduate student from Madras Christian College, Chennai.

UK and China
February 2026 | CWA # 1957

Preetha Renganarayanan | R Preetha is pursuing post-graduation in the Department of International Studies, Stella Maris College, Chennai, and is a Research Assistant at the National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bengaluru.

The India-US interim trade framework
February 2026 | CWA # 1956

Lekshmi MK | Lekshmi MK is pursuing post-graduation in the Department of Political Science, Madras Christian College, Chennai, and is a Research Assistant at the National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bengaluru.

End of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START)
August 2025 | CWA # 1780

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

Trump tariffs:
June 2025 | CWA # 1694

Aashish Ganeshan

The US:
May 2025 | CWA # 1688

Ayan Datta

Gaza
May 2025 | CWA # 1675

Lekshmi MK

Turkey:
May 2025 | CWA # 1673

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine:
May 2025 | CWA # 1667

R Preetha and Brighty Ann Sarah

East Asia:
September 2019 | CWA # 162

Lakshman Chakravarthy N

5G: A Primer
December 2018 | CWA # 71

Mahesh Bhatta | Centre for South Asian Studies, Kathmandu

Nepal
December 2018 | CWA # 70

Nasima Khatoon | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

The Maldives
December 2018 | CWA # 69

Harini Madhusudan | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

India
December 2018 | CWA # 68

Sourina Bej | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

Bangladesh
December 2018 | CWA # 67

Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

Afghanistan