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National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS)
Indian Institute of Science Campus, Bangalore
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CW Review
UNHCR Global Trends Report 2025: 

  Deb Dutta
Deb Dutta completed his graduation from the Department of Political Science, Sir Aurobindo International Centre of Education (SAICE), Puducherry. He is currently an intern at NIAS.

On 11 June, UNHCR released its Global Trends report on forced displacement in 2025. According to the report, 117.8 million people were displaced worldwide at the end of 2025, a drop of 5.4 million from the previous year. It is the first decline in global displacement in a decade. But the report warns this fall is not a sign of crises ending. Most of it came from refugees being pushed out of host countries, often back into unsafe conditions at home.

The following are five key takeaways on the state of global displacement in 2025, based on the UNHCR report.
1. Forced returns, not by the resolution of crises drove the decline in global displacement 
Global displacement fell to 117.8 million in 2025; however, the UNHCR's report cautions against reading this as progress. The decline was driven by a surge in returns: 14.7 million people went back to their countries or areas of origin, the second-highest figure on record. Most of these returns happened under pressure, not by choice. 

In Afghanistan, nearly 2.9 million people were forced back after Iran and Pakistan tightened deportation policies, with returns from Iran sometimes exceeding 40,000 people a day in July 2025. In Syria, 1.3 million refugees returned following the fall of the Assad government, into a country where 90 per cent of the population still lives in poverty. Sudan saw 651,500 returns even as war continued elsewhere in the country. 

The UNHCR report notes that over 90 per cent of all refugee returns in 2025 went to just three places: Afghanistan, Syria, and Sudan. All of which remain fragile and unsafe.

2. Executive order restricted the refugee entry, leading to a decline in resettlement in 2025
According to UNHCR's estimates, in 2025, there were 2.9 million refugees who needed resettlement. But fewer than three out of every hundred got resettled. The resettlement usually comes at the end of the chain for the most vulnerable refugees, especially tortured persons, vulnerable women and girls, and those who cannot go back home safely.
According to the report, in 2025, resettlement and sponsorship helped only 81,800 refugees get settled down, representing a 57 per cent decrease from 188,800 refugees in 2024. This became the lowest number since 2011. This dramatic decline was caused by the situation in the US, where the resettlement of refugees fell by 89 per cent as a result of the executive order restricting entry for most refugees. The leading resettlement states were Canada and Australia. But even they were unable to compensate for this decline. In addition, 

3. High median time in asylum; women and girls stay displaced longer than men
Displacement is often imagined as a temporary emergency. The data says otherwise. Nearly 70 per cent of the world's refugees are in "protracted" situations; displaced for five years or more with no durable solution in sight. A UNHCR analysis of eastern and southern Africa found the median time spent in asylum is just under 16 years; close to an entire childhood. Family size matters more than age; families of five or more remain displaced for almost 19 years, while single people leave the system in under six. Women and girls stay displaced longer than men, nearly 17 years versus just over 14. In response, UNHCR launched a "50 by 35" initiative, aiming to halve the number of aid-dependent refugees in protracted displacement by 2035. An admission that the old model of short-term emergency aid was never built for crises that last this long.

4. The IDPs, not refugees, make up the largest and least protected share of the displaced
By December 2025, 68.7 million people were displaced within their own nations due to conflict and violence, 58 per cent of the world’s displaced population and almost twice the global number of refugees. Of these displaced individuals, 9.1 million were in Sudan alone, which represents the largest internal displacement crisis in the world, despite a 21 per cent reduction compared to 2024. Since the internally displaced have not crossed any international borders, they are therefore excluded from the protections of the 1951 Convention. 

Taken together, these findings suggest that the apparent decline in global displacement reflects coercion and fragility rather than resolution. The systems meant to protect the displaced, from asylum to resettlement, are increasingly unable to keep pace with need.

References
United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. Global Trends: Forced Displacement in 2025. Copenhagen: UNHCR, 11 June 2026.

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August 2026 | CWA # 2241

Urja R Kudalkar | Urja R Kudalkar is a postgraduate student at the Department of Public Policy, Ramaiah University of Applied Sciences, RUAS, Bengaluru. She is currently a research intern at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

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July 2026 | CWA # 2216

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July 2026 | CWA # 2211

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July 2026 | CWA # 2210

Adwaith Sankar | Adwaith Sankar is an undergraduate student pursuing Political Science and International Liberal Studies through the NUS-Waseda Double Degree Programme. He is currently an intern at NIAS.

ASEAN Regional Forum:
July 2026 | CWA # 2209

Namrata L Ghanghatkar | Namrata L Ghanghatkar is a postgraduate student at the Department of Public Policy, Ramaiah University of Applied Sciences, Bengaluru. She is currently a research intern at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS).

The return of US-Canada Tariff Tensions:
July 2026 | CWA # 2208

Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella | Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella is an undergraduate student from the Department of Political Science, School of Liberal Arts, Alliance University, Bengaluru. She is currently an intern at NIAS.

The US-Saudi Arabia Nuclear Cooperation Agreement:
July 2026 | CWA # 2204

Brighty Ann Sarah | Brighty Ann Sarah is a Research Assistant at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

The Houthis target Saudi Arabia:
July 2026 | CWA # 2203

Brighty Ann Sarah | Brighty Ann Sarah is a Research Assistant at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

US-Iran War, Week 21:
July 2026 | CWA # 2197

Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella | Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella is an undergraduate student from the Department of Political Science, School of Liberal Arts, Alliance University, Bengaluru. She is currently an intern at NIAS.

The US-Iran War, Week 20:
July 2026 | CWA # 2195

Radhika M Agarwal | Radhika M Agarwal is a an internt at NIAS and also a postgraduate student at the Department of Politics and International Relations in Pandit Deendayal Energy University, Gandhinagar.

The C5+1 Critical Minerals Dialogue: 
July 2026 | CWA # 2189

Dhivya KM | Dhivya K M is an intern at NIAS and is also a postgraduate student from the Department of Financial Economics, Madras School of Economics, Chennai.

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July 2026 | CWA # 2184

Deb Dutta | Deb Dutta completed his graduation from the Department of Political Science, Sir Aurobindo International Centre of Education (SAICE), Puducherry. He is currently an intern at NIAS.

UNHCR Global Trends Report 2025: 
July 2026 | CWA # 2180

Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella | Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella is an undergraduate student from the Department of Political Science, School of Liberal Arts, Alliance University, Bengaluru. She is currently an intern at NIAS.

Iran after Ali Khamenei
July 2026 | CWA # 2177

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PM Takaichi's India visit: 
July 2026 | CWA # 2174

Yesasvi Koganti | Yesasvi Koganti is an undergraduate student at the Department of Political Science, Madras Christian College, Chennai. She is also an intern at NIAS, Bengaluru. 

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July 2026 | CWA # 2172

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June 2026 | CWA # 2164

Shreya Upadhyay | Dr Shreya Upadhyay is an Assistant Professor at Christ (deemed to be) University, Bengaluru, and Fellow, Kalinga Institute of Indo-Pacific Studies.

The United States (April-June 2026)
June 2026 | CWA # 2159

Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella | Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella is an undergraduate student from the Department of Political Science, School of Liberal Arts, Alliance University, Bengaluru. She is currently an intern at NIAS.

The US-Iran MoU
June 2026 | CWA # 2151

Rohini Reenum | Rohini Reenum is a doctoral student at NIAS. She is working on Governance in Areas Beyond National Jurisdiction using the case study of the BBNJ Agreement.

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June 2026 | CWA # 2149

Brighty Ann Sarah | Brighty Ann Sarah is a Research Assistant with the Global Politics team at the Science, Technology and International Relations (STIR) Programme at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

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June 2026 | CWA # 2136

Acsah H | Acsah H is a postgraduate student at the Department of Geopolitics and International Relations, Manipal Institute of Social Sciences, Humanities and Arts, MAHE, Manipal, Udupi. She is currently a research intern at NIAS.

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June 2026 | CWA # 2135

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June 2026 | CWA # 2134

Aishal Hab Yousuf | Aishal Hab Yousuf is a postgraduate student at the Department of International Studies. Stella Maris College, Chennai. She is currently an intern at NIAS, Bengaluru.

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June 2026 | CWA # 2132

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The US-Iran War, Week Fourteen:
June 2026 | CWA # 2131

Rohini Reenum | Rohini Reenum is a doctoral student at NIAS. She is working on Governance in Areas Beyond National Jurisdiction using the case study of the BBNJ Agreement.

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May 2026 | CWA # 2127

Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella | Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella is an undergraduate from the Department of Political Science, School of Liberal Arts, Alliance University, Bengaluru

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May 2026 | CWA # 2124

Glynnis Winona B | Glynnis Winona B is an undergraduate student at the Department of International Relations, Peace Studies, and Public Policy, St. Joseph's University, Bengaluru. She is currently an intern at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengalur

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Israel, Lebanon, Hezbollah, and the Border Tensions:
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May 2026 | CWA # 2116

Yesasvi Koganti | Yesasvi Koganti is currently pursuing undergraduate studies at the Department of Political Science, Madras Christian College, Chennai. 

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May 2026 | CWA # 2114

Glynnis Winona B | Glynnis Winona B is an undergraduate student at the Department of International Relations, Peace Studies and Public Policy, St. Joseph's University, Bengaluru. She is currently an intern at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru

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May 2026 | CWA # 2112

Nithin V | Nithin V is a postgraduate student in international relations at Loyola College, Chennai. He is currently an intern at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

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May 2026 | CWA # 2109

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May 2026 | CWA # 2104

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May 2026 | CWA # 2091

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May 2026 | CWA # 2090

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The US-Iran War, Week Ten:
May 2026 | CWA # 2088

Nithin V | Nithin V is a postgraduate student in International Relations, with an interest in geopolitics, international political economy, and climate governance. He is currently an intern at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

King Charles's US Visit:
May 2026 | CWA # 2087

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May 2026 | CWA # 2086

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UAE's Exit from OPEC:
May 2026 | CWA # 2085

Glynnis Winona B | Glynnis Winona B is an undergraduate student at the Department of International Relations, Peace Studies and Public Policy, St. Joseph's University, Bengaluru. She is currently an intern at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru

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May 2026 | CWA # 2083

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April 2026 | CWA # 2079

Aishal Hab Yousuf | Aishal Hab Yousuf, Postgraduate student, Department of International Studies, Stella Maris College, Chennai. She is currently an intern at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

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April 2026 | CWA # 2074

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April 2026 | CWA # 2073

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March 2026 | CWA # 2042

Preetha Renganarayanan

March 2026 | CWA # 2001

Preetha Renganarayanan

February 2026 | CWA # 1986

Preetha Renganarayanan

February 2026 | CWA # 1959

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February 2026 | CWA # 1957

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February 2026 | CWA # 1956

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August 2025 | CWA # 1780

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June 2025 | CWA # 1694

Aashish Ganeshan

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May 2025 | CWA # 1688

Ayan Datta

Gaza
May 2025 | CWA # 1675

Lekshmi MK

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May 2025 | CWA # 1673

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine:
May 2025 | CWA # 1667

R Preetha and Brighty Ann Sarah

East Asia:
September 2019 | CWA # 162

Lakshman Chakravarthy N

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December 2018 | CWA # 71

Mahesh Bhatta | Centre for South Asian Studies, Kathmandu

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December 2018 | CWA # 70

Nasima Khatoon | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

The Maldives
December 2018 | CWA # 69

Harini Madhusudan | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

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December 2018 | CWA # 68

Sourina Bej | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

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December 2018 | CWA # 67

Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

Afghanistan