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National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS)
Indian Institute of Science Campus, Bangalore
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TWTW Review
The IMF World Economic Outlook: 

  Dhivya KM
Dhivya K M is an intern at NIAS and is also a postgraduate student from the Department of Financial Economics, Madras School of Economics, Chennai.

On 08 July, the IMF released the July 2026 Update on World Economic Outlook (WEO), revising its April economic growth projections. The report focused on the resilience of the global economy despite heightened geopolitical and trade uncertainties.  It assesses the impact of the Middle East crisis on global energy markets, growth of investment in AI and its increasing contribution to global economic growth, trade, and productivity. 

The following are five key takeaways from the report. 
1. Global economy shows resilience, but with a slim margin
The world economy's ability to withstand a shock to its energy supply without falling into a recession is an achievement in its own right. The growth rate of 3 per cent registered in Q1 2026 surpassed the estimate in April by the Fund, as the world has successfully diversified over the last ten years its energy dependence on hydrocarbons. It appears that the efforts to diversify energy supply sources following previous shocks were not in vain, and policy-makers now have a little more room to maneuver. However, the IMF did not declare this problem solved. The energy supply buffer has been depleted, and the supply chain is still under pressure, so there will be no cushion next time.

2. The AI-driven growth is reshaping the global economy, but unevenly shared
A significant finding is the uneven distribution of the AI-driven growth cycle. Export economies in the semiconductor and technology chain, such as Korea, Malaysia, and Vietnam, received a considerable boost from rising demand for AI hardware and infrastructure. Growth in India was fuelled less by exports than by domestic consumption, while that in China was offset by high-tech exports and infrastructure investments. The significance lies in participation in the technology value chain. Economies participating in the technology value chain become an important factor of resilience, while non-participants in the chain suffered from higher energy and food prices.

3. Disinflation is failing, and it challenges the credibility of central banks
Since 2024, the IMF has maintained that global disinflation has been progressing in the right direction. Headline inflation is set to increase to 4.7 per cent in 2026 from 4.1 per cent in 2025, after which it will resume its descent in 2027. Since this hike is due to energy and food prices rather than an over-heated demand, the policy solution is different from the solution needed in case of a demand-induced jump. Despite core inflation being stable, the IMF has warned that this should not be taken to mean the target is back. Core indicators are expected to have normalized by mid-2027 in the UK, by end-2027 in the US and Japan, and by 2028 in the eurozone. In those cases where credibility is weak, then the expectations will turn out to be un-anchored.


4. Geopolitical disruptions hit the Middle East hardest, but Asia held firm
Geography influenced the strength of the shock, demonstrating the disparity that occurs between international risk and the national outcome. Economic growth in the Middle East and Central Asia region is expected to weaken considerably to 0.7 per cent in 2026. Countries highly vulnerable to transportation and energy supply interruption will suffer economic contraction until 2027, assuming reopening of the Strait of Hormuz beginning in mid-July. The US, which is an energy exporter and major technological investor, had a strong performance, recording economic growth of 2.3 per cent. Meanwhile, while the Europe recorded slower growth of 0.9 per cent due to high energy prices and low confidence. The emerging Asia region displayed some resiliency, with India, Vietnam and Malaysia doing relatively well, while Pakistan's growth remained steady at 3.6 per cent because of its recovery plan supported by the IMF.

5. Emphasis on policy discipline to preserve economic resilience
The IMF’s recommendation is to maintain stable interest rates where inflation is transitory, but to be prepared to raise rates when central banks lack credibility. Fiscal policy advocates providing targeted aid to vulnerable groups for a specified period and area, rather than general energy subsidies. This was due to the loss of fiscal space due to poor policy decisions. Countries that benefit from energy or technology booms are advised to save the gains they make. In regards to structural reforms, the advice concerning renewable energy, digitisation infrastructure, and artificial intelligence has become urgent. Cooperation must avoid trade barriers and export restrictions but should encourage quick resolution of debt under the Group of Twenty Common Framework.

 

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August 2026 | CWA # 2241

Urja R Kudalkar | Urja R Kudalkar is a postgraduate student at the Department of Public Policy, Ramaiah University of Applied Sciences, RUAS, Bengaluru. She is currently a research intern at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

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Latin America (Apr-Jun 2026):
August 2026 | CWA # 2226

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The Berlin Pride attack
July 2026 | CWA # 2216

Manikranth Chakravarthula | Manikranth Chakravarthula is a doctoral student at the Conflict Resolution and Peace Research Programme, School of Conflict and Security Studies, National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bengaluru.

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July 2026 | CWA # 2213

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July 2026 | CWA # 2211

Priyanka Makhijani | Priyanka Makhijani is a postgraduate student at the department of Public Policy, School of Social Science, Ramaiah University of Applied science. She is currently an intern at NIAS.

AI's Rogue Agent Breach:
July 2026 | CWA # 2210

Adwaith Sankar | Adwaith Sankar is an undergraduate student pursuing Political Science and International Liberal Studies through the NUS-Waseda Double Degree Programme. He is currently an intern at NIAS.

ASEAN Regional Forum:
July 2026 | CWA # 2209

Namrata L Ghanghatkar | Namrata L Ghanghatkar is a postgraduate student at the Department of Public Policy, Ramaiah University of Applied Sciences, Bengaluru. She is currently a research intern at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS).

The return of US-Canada Tariff Tensions:
July 2026 | CWA # 2208

Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella | Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella is an undergraduate student from the Department of Political Science, School of Liberal Arts, Alliance University, Bengaluru. She is currently an intern at NIAS.

The US-Saudi Arabia Nuclear Cooperation Agreement:
July 2026 | CWA # 2204

Brighty Ann Sarah | Brighty Ann Sarah is a Research Assistant at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

The Houthis target Saudi Arabia:
July 2026 | CWA # 2203

Brighty Ann Sarah | Brighty Ann Sarah is a Research Assistant at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

US-Iran War, Week 21:
July 2026 | CWA # 2197

Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella | Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella is an undergraduate student from the Department of Political Science, School of Liberal Arts, Alliance University, Bengaluru. She is currently an intern at NIAS.

The US-Iran War, Week 20:
July 2026 | CWA # 2195

Radhika M Agarwal | Radhika M Agarwal is a an internt at NIAS and also a postgraduate student at the Department of Politics and International Relations in Pandit Deendayal Energy University, Gandhinagar.

The C5+1 Critical Minerals Dialogue: 
July 2026 | CWA # 2189

Dhivya KM | Dhivya K M is an intern at NIAS and is also a postgraduate student from the Department of Financial Economics, Madras School of Economics, Chennai.

The IMF World Economic Outlook: 
July 2026 | CWA # 2184

Deb Dutta | Deb Dutta completed his graduation from the Department of Political Science, Sir Aurobindo International Centre of Education (SAICE), Puducherry. He is currently an intern at NIAS.

UNHCR Global Trends Report 2025: 
July 2026 | CWA # 2180

Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella | Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella is an undergraduate student from the Department of Political Science, School of Liberal Arts, Alliance University, Bengaluru. She is currently an intern at NIAS.

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July 2026 | CWA # 2177

Deb Dutta | Deb Dutta completed his graduation from the Department of Political Science, Sir Aurobindo International Centre of Education (SAICE), Puducherry. He is currently an intern at NIAS.

PM Takaichi's India visit: 
July 2026 | CWA # 2174

Yesasvi Koganti | Yesasvi Koganti is an undergraduate student at the Department of Political Science, Madras Christian College, Chennai. She is also an intern at NIAS, Bengaluru. 

The Israel-Lebanon Framework:
July 2026 | CWA # 2172

Brighty Ann Sarah | Brighty Ann Sarah is a Research Assistant with the Global Politics team at the Science, Technology and International Relations (STIR) Programme at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

The US-Iran negotiations:
June 2026 | CWA # 2164

Shreya Upadhyay | Dr Shreya Upadhyay is an Assistant Professor at Christ (deemed to be) University, Bengaluru, and Fellow, Kalinga Institute of Indo-Pacific Studies.

The United States (April-June 2026)
June 2026 | CWA # 2159

Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella | Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella is an undergraduate student from the Department of Political Science, School of Liberal Arts, Alliance University, Bengaluru. She is currently an intern at NIAS.

The US-Iran MoU
June 2026 | CWA # 2151

Rohini Reenum | Rohini Reenum is a doctoral student at NIAS. She is working on Governance in Areas Beyond National Jurisdiction using the case study of the BBNJ Agreement.

Israel's Ultra-Orthodox Jews:
June 2026 | CWA # 2149

Brighty Ann Sarah | Brighty Ann Sarah is a Research Assistant with the Global Politics team at the Science, Technology and International Relations (STIR) Programme at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

The US-Iran MoU:
June 2026 | CWA # 2136

Acsah H | Acsah H is a postgraduate student at the Department of Geopolitics and International Relations, Manipal Institute of Social Sciences, Humanities and Arts, MAHE, Manipal, Udupi. She is currently a research intern at NIAS.

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June 2026 | CWA # 2135

Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella | Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella is an undergraduate from the Department of Political Science, School of Liberal Arts, Alliance University, Bengaluru. She is currently an intern at NIAS.

Shangri-La Dialogue 2026:
June 2026 | CWA # 2134

Aishal Hab Yousuf | Aishal Hab Yousuf is a postgraduate student at the Department of International Studies. Stella Maris College, Chennai. She is currently an intern at NIAS, Bengaluru.

Shangri-La Dialogue 2026: Four Major Takeaways
June 2026 | CWA # 2132

Brighty Ann Sarah | Brighty Ann Sarah is a Research Assistant with the Global Politics team at the Science, Technology and International Relations (STIR) Programme at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

The US-Iran War, Week Fourteen:
June 2026 | CWA # 2131

Rohini Reenum | Rohini Reenum is a doctoral student at NIAS. She is working on Governance in Areas Beyond National Jurisdiction using the case study of the BBNJ Agreement.

Israel-Lebanon Tensions:
May 2026 | CWA # 2127

Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella | Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella is an undergraduate from the Department of Political Science, School of Liberal Arts, Alliance University, Bengaluru

The Quad Foreign Ministers' Meeting 2026:
May 2026 | CWA # 2124

Glynnis Winona B | Glynnis Winona B is an undergraduate student at the Department of International Relations, Peace Studies, and Public Policy, St. Joseph's University, Bengaluru. She is currently an intern at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengalur

The Crisis in Cuba:
May 2026 | CWA # 2121

Deb Dutta | Deb Dutta completed his graduation from the Department of Political Science, Sir Aurobindo International Centre of Education (SAICE), Puducherry. He is currently an intern at NIAS.

Israel, Lebanon, Hezbollah, and the Border Tensions:
May 2026 | CWA # 2120

Brighty Ann Sarah | Brighty Ann Sarah is a Research Assistant with the Global Politics team at the Science, Technology and International Relations (STIR) Programme at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

Conflicts in the Middle East
May 2026 | CWA # 2116

Yesasvi Koganti | Yesasvi Koganti is currently pursuing undergraduate studies at the Department of Political Science, Madras Christian College, Chennai. 

India, the UAE, and PM Modi’s visit:
May 2026 | CWA # 2114

Glynnis Winona B | Glynnis Winona B is an undergraduate student at the Department of International Relations, Peace Studies and Public Policy, St. Joseph's University, Bengaluru. She is currently an intern at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru

What makes the UAE a global player?
May 2026 | CWA # 2112

Nithin V | Nithin V is a postgraduate student in international relations at Loyola College, Chennai. He is currently an intern at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

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May 2026 | CWA # 2109

Aishal Hab Yousuf | Aishal Hab Yousuf is a postgraduate student at the Department of International Studies, Stella Maris College, Chennai. She is currently an intern at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

North Korea's Constitutional Amendment 2026:
May 2026 | CWA # 2104

Brighty Ann Sarah | Brighty Ann Sarah is a Research Assistant with the Global Politics team at the Science, Technology and International Relations (STIR) Programme at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

The Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire:
May 2026 | CWA # 2091

Brighty Ann Sarah | Brighty Ann Sarah is a Research Assistant with the Global Politics team at the Science, Technology and International Relations (STIR) Programme at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

Conflicts in the Middle East:
May 2026 | CWA # 2090

Brighty Ann Sarah | Brighty Ann Sarah is a Research Assistant with the Global Politics team at the Science, Technology and International Relations (STIR) Programme at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

The US-Iran War, Week Ten:
May 2026 | CWA # 2088

Nithin V | Nithin V is a postgraduate student in International Relations, with an interest in geopolitics, international political economy, and climate governance. He is currently an intern at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

King Charles's US Visit:
May 2026 | CWA # 2087

Siddhi Halyur | Siddhi Halyur is an undergraduate student at the Department of International Relations, Public Policy and Journalism at St Joseph's University, Bengaluru. She is currently an intern at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

Japan, Vietnam and PM Takaichis Visit
May 2026 | CWA # 2086

Aishal Hab Yousuf | Aishal Hab Yousuf is a postgraduate student at the Department of International Studies, Stella Maris College, Chennai. She is currently an intern at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

UAE's Exit from OPEC:
May 2026 | CWA # 2085

Glynnis Winona B | Glynnis Winona B is an undergraduate student at the Department of International Relations, Peace Studies and Public Policy, St. Joseph's University, Bengaluru. She is currently an intern at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru

US troop withdrawal from Germany:
May 2026 | CWA # 2083

Brighty Ann Sarah | Brighty Ann Sarah is a Research Assistant with the Global Politics team at the Science, Technology and International Relations (STIR) Programme at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

The US-Iran War, Week Nine:
May 2026 | CWA # 2081

Jenin Raj S | Dr Jenin Raj S is an Assistant Professor and Head of the Centre for Media, Department of Journalism, Mount Carmel College (Autonomous), Bengaluru.

Media freedom hits a 25-year low:
April 2026 | CWA # 2079

Aishal Hab Yousuf | Aishal Hab Yousuf, Postgraduate student, Department of International Studies, Stella Maris College, Chennai. She is currently an intern at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

Japans New Defence Posture:
April 2026 | CWA # 2074

Brighty Ann Sarah | Ms Sarah is a Research Assistant at NIAS and Assistant Editor of NIAS Conflict Weekly.

Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire:
April 2026 | CWA # 2073

Akshath Kaimal | Mr Kaimal is a Research Assistant at NIAS. He works on Pakistan and Africa.

The US-Iran War, Week Eight:
April 2026 | CWA # 2065

Lakshmi Venugopal Menon | Dr Lakshmi Venugopal Menon is an academic and policy researcher specializing in Gulf studies, cultural heritage trafficking, geopolitics, migration, Afghan politics and the Taliban.

The Middle East (JanMar 2026):
March 2026 | CWA # 2042

Preetha Renganarayanan

March 2026 | CWA # 2001

Preetha Renganarayanan

February 2026 | CWA # 1986

Preetha Renganarayanan

February 2026 | CWA # 1959

Yesasvi Koganti | Yesasvi Koganti is an undergraduate student from Madras Christian College, Chennai.

UK and China
February 2026 | CWA # 1957

Preetha Renganarayanan | R Preetha is pursuing post-graduation in the Department of International Studies, Stella Maris College, Chennai, and is a Research Assistant at the National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bengaluru.

The India-US interim trade framework
February 2026 | CWA # 1956

Lekshmi MK | Lekshmi MK is pursuing post-graduation in the Department of Political Science, Madras Christian College, Chennai, and is a Research Assistant at the National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bengaluru.

End of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START)
August 2025 | CWA # 1780

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

Trump tariffs:
June 2025 | CWA # 1694

Aashish Ganeshan

The US:
May 2025 | CWA # 1688

Ayan Datta

Gaza
May 2025 | CWA # 1675

Lekshmi MK

Turkey:
May 2025 | CWA # 1673

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine:
May 2025 | CWA # 1667

R Preetha and Brighty Ann Sarah

East Asia:
September 2019 | CWA # 162

Lakshman Chakravarthy N

5G: A Primer
December 2018 | CWA # 71

Mahesh Bhatta | Centre for South Asian Studies, Kathmandu

Nepal
December 2018 | CWA # 70

Nasima Khatoon | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

The Maldives
December 2018 | CWA # 69

Harini Madhusudan | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

India
December 2018 | CWA # 68

Sourina Bej | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

Bangladesh
December 2018 | CWA # 67

Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

Afghanistan