NIAS Area Studies
PAKISTAN READER
Photo : South China Morning Post
HIGHLIGHTS
INTERNAL
Chinese Communist Party amends law to uphold party leadership over the State Council
On 11 March, South China Morning Post reported on the legislature (NPC) passing a revised law allowing the CCP to gain more control over the State Council, ending the separation of power between the party and the state. It amended the Organic law of the State Council with 2,883 votes in favour, eight against, and nine abstentions. The amended law states that the State Council must uphold the party leadership and follow the political teachings of the party leadership, including President Xi Jinping. Deng Yuwen, former deputy editor of Study Times, said that Xi has revived Chairman Mao’s famous slogan: “Government, the military, society and schools, north, south, east and west – the party leads them all.” According to Zheng, the State Council law was passed in 1982 by Deng Xiaoping, which pushed for the separation of party and the government to prevent the concentration of power seen during the Mao era, especially the Cultural Revolution. The party’s control over the cabinet took place under Xi’s presidency. According to Deng Yuwen, an independent researcher, this amendment will make Xi the sole decision-maker for all policy matters. (William Zheng, “‘Two sessions’ 2024: China ‘all about the party’s leadership’ as it gets more control over cabinet,” South China Morning Post, 12 March 2024)
CHINA & THE AMERICAS
Ukraine to lose war without American aid , and bolster Chinese ambition in Taiwan and SCS, says CIA
On 11 March, according to a report from the Annual Threat Assessment 2024 in The New York Times, Senior US Intelligence officials warned of Ukraine losing the war with Russia without American as Russia continues to get regular and ample supply of arms and technology from China. During the public testimony, the officials predicted that any delays in US aid to Ukraine would translate into additional territorial gains by Russia, and its impact would be visible in Europe and the Pacific. CIA director William Burns told the US Congress that the delays in US aid to Ukraine would create doubts amongst its allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific and would drive Chinese ambitions from Taiwan to the South China Sea. Director of National Intelligence Avril D. Haines expressed her concerns about Ukraine’s ability to maintain their advances amid a sustained surge in Russia’s ammunition production and purchase from North Korea and Iran. Burns mentioned that the additional US aid of USD 62 billion will enable Ukraine to pose long-term costs against Russia and can strike deep inside Russian territories of Crimea and the Black Sea fleet. (David E Sanger; Julian E Barnes, “Intelligence Officials Warn of Losses for Ukraine Without More U.S. Aid,” The New York Times, 11 March 2024)
CHINA & SOUTHEATS ASIA
Chinese companies to boost energy investments in Laos
On 12 March, according to an opinion in Nikkei Asia titled “China goes big on Laos power projects, boosting Southeast Asian sway,” Chinese state-owned companies are expanding their investments in hydroelectric power plants and transmissions in Laos, which is aiming to become the “battery of Southeast Asia.” The Nam Ou hydroelectric plant has seven dams and was built by the Power Construction Corp. of China, or PowerChina, at a cost of USD 2.8 billion. The plant began its full operation in 2021 with an annual capacity of 5,000 gigawatt-hours, equivalent to a small nuclear power plant. According to the American Enterprise Institute, Chinese companies invested USD 3.2 billion in Laos’ energy sector in March 2023, which is 30 per cent higher than the previous five years. According to Akama, PowerChina intends to build another new hydroelectric power plant in Pak Lay in the western part of the country in 2032. Furthermore, China General Nuclear Power plans to start generating solar and wind power in northern Laos. According to World Bank data, Laos' public debt has reached 125 per cent of its GDP, and China accounts for 50 per cent of its debt. At present, electricity exports are the main source of Lao’s foreign currency. (Kenya Akama, “China goes big on Laos power projects, boosting Southeast Asian sway,” Nikkei Asia, 12 March 2024)
CHINA READER DAILY WIRE
CHINA & SOUTHEAST ASIA
Manila must not invite other countries to intervene in SCS disputes, says Chinese FM spokesperson
On 11 March, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said that the countries concerned in the territorial disputes, including resource exploitation, must not undermine China’s overall interests in the South China Sea (SCS) and must not invite extraterritorial countries to intervene in this dispute. He also said that the two sides must be careful and properly handle the dispute. Philippine ambassador to the United States Jose Manuel Romuadez said, “When the time comes that we are going to start exploring it, we’ll have the options to be able to see how we can secure the expedition,” and “we’re working closely with our allies, not only the US but also Japan and Australia.” According to Zhou, the SCS basin is expected to have 11 billion barrels of untapped oil and 190 trillion cubic feet (5.4 trillion cubic metres) of natural gas. However, territorial disputes exist among China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Taiwan, Malaysia, and Brunei, thus leading to tensions among the rival claimants. With the detreating ties with Beijing, Manila has recently increased its efforts to extract oil and gas in the Sulu Sea with an Israeli company named Ratio Petroleum Energy LP to conduct a 3D seismic survey in April 2024. (Lara Zhou, “South China Sea: energy exploration should not involve countries outside the region, Beijing says,” South China Morning Post,” 11 March 2024; “Philippine envoy says US key to Manila’s plan to tap oil, gas in South China Sea,” The Strait Times, 11 March 2024)
Countries placing higher priority on supply chain resilience and security: Editorial in The Guardian
On 11 March, according to an editorial in The Guardian titled “The Guardian view on supply chains: not only just in time, but just in case,” the US is increasingly concerned about the stagnant port infrastructure, especially the crane construction, which has not taken place in the US for decades, and the Biden admin has allocated USD 20 bn to the industry. In 2023, the EU foreign affairs chief, Josep Borrell, said, “a paradigm shifts from the primacy of open markets to the primacy of security; from ‘just in time’ to ‘just in case’.” The editorial also mentions the role played by the pandemic and its impact on the countries, forcing them to think about the debate between the efficiency and resilience of supply chains, the increasing climate change events, and the growing cyber-attacks on the world. According to a survey published by the British Chambers of Commerce in February 2024, the cost of containers from Asia to Europe has increased by 300 per cent, and consumers are suffering because of the increased price of supply chain disruptions. The editorial mentions the growing discussions on globalization and its successive terms, such as onshoring, friend-shoring, or nearshoring. The US is concerned about the potential war with China over Taiwan and its impact on the logistics. (“The Guardian view on supply chains: not only just in time, but just in case,” The Guardian, 11 March 2024)
EXTERNAL
Joint naval exercises between China-Russia and Iran near the Gulf of Oman
On 11 March, according to the Ministry of National Defense, the People’s Republic of China, China, Russia, and Iran are conducting joint naval exercises from 11 March to 15 March 2024 near the Gulf of Oman. The exercise aims to strengthen maritime cooperation and jointly safeguard regional maritime security. According to Iran’s state news agency, IRNA, the drills are set to start on 12 March with naval representatives from Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Oman, India, and South Africa as observers. Beijing said that it will send its guided missile destroyer Urumqi, guided missile frigate Linyi, and comprehensive supply ship Dongpinghu. Russian news media says that the exercise will enhance greater maritime security. It also reported that Russia sent ships from its Pacific Fleet, led by the Varyag cruiser. The exercise comes amid the ongoing tensions in the Red Sea due to the ongoing war in Gaza and the attacks on vessels by Houthi rebels. In 2023, former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley said that the alliance between the three countries would pose problems for the US in the long term. (Samuel Weinmann, “China, Iran, Russia Host Naval Drills,” VOA, 11 March 2024)
CHINA & THE PACIFIC
Concerns over delayed US aid delivery to the Pacific Islands
On 12 March, according to an opinion in The Guardian, titled “The US funding deal is good for the Pacific. But the key is what happens next,” after long delays, the US Congress approved a USD 7 billion funding package for the three Pacific Island countries (PICs) namely the Marshall Islands, Federated States of Micronesia and Palau on 08 March. The approval was meant to renew the Compacts of Free Association (Cofa) agreements, which focused on critical services for these countries for the next twenty years and provide special migration facilities to the US. In return, the US will receive exclusive access to the strategically located Pacific Island countries. According to the authors, the risk remains high as the chances of US attention diverting from PICs to Taiwan, Ukraine, and Gaza remain high. The main concern is the money, as the US has yet to deliver on USD 1 billion in aid committed to the previous two US-Pacific summits. Australia’s minister for the Pacific, Pat Conroy, China has increased its policing in the Solomon Islands and Kiribati. Another major risk is the increasing disturbances caused by climate change, natural disasters, and election interference. The US has an advantage in terms of assets like Market access, services to boost education, health, and infrastructure, and building relationships for greater community engagement with the PICs. (Meg Keen; Mihai Sora, “The US funding deal is good for the Pacific. But the key is what happens next,” The Guardian, 12 March 2024)
CHINA & SOUTHEAST ASIA
Cambodian shipments increasingly relying in Chinese-built canals
On 12 March, according to an opinion in Nikkei Asia titled “Cambodia to divert Mekong trade via China-built canal, vexing Vietnam,” Cambodia plans to shift its future trade along the USD 1.7 billion Chinese-funded Funan Techo canal, which connects Phnom Penh with Cambodian ports on the Gulf of Thailand, bypassing Vietnam's controlled waters of the Mekong Delta. Cambodian PM Hun Manet appealed for this canal construction as it creates geopolitical tensions due to the shifting of Cambodia’s dependence away from Vietnam, which not only undermines Hanoi’s regional leverage but strengthens Beijing’s influence in the Southern Mekong. According to Brook, the Chinese canal could pose a fault line between Cambodia and Vietnam amid increasing regional polarity. Cambodian officials note that the new canal would reduce shipping costs by 30 per cent, thus increasing the critical export industries, especially the garment industry. As per Mekong expert Brian Eyler, Camdoaian claims of limited environmental impact are wrong and will be worse than its estimates, and that the new canal will impact the Mekong Mainstream based on the maps submitted to the Mekong River Commission (MRC) Secretariat. (Jack Brook, “Cambodia to divert Mekong trade via China-built canal, vexing Vietnam,” Nikkei Asia, 12 March 2024)
CHINA & THE AMERICAS
Biden pressured to investigate against unfair practices by Chinese shipbuilders
On 12 March, the US Union Steel Makers union requested President Joe Biden to conduct an investigation against the alleged unfair Chinese economic practices in the shipbuilding and maritime logistics sectors. The USW and other unions will lodge a petition with the Trade Representative highlighting discriminatory practices that helped the Chinese shipbuilding industry. Former President Donald Trump used the same statute, Section 301 of the Trade Act, to justify the imposition of tariffs on Chinese imports in 2018. The union highlighted CCP’s strategy to dominate global trade through its shipbuilding industry and engage in predatory trade, and it is happy with Biden's admin policy to revive domestic supply chains. The unions are seeking to build momentum in this policy by reviving the US commercial shipbuilding industry. According to Demetri, it is expected that President Biden will unlikely turn down the investigation request due to the upcoming 2024 US Presidential elections. He highlights that any investigations against Beijing will create tensions between the US-China relations. This comes after the US Congress agreed to USD 52 billion to build a domestic chip-building industry. (Demetri Sevastopulo, “US steel unions urge Joe Biden to open probe into Chinese shipbuilding,” Financial Times, 12 March 2024)
US faces an “increasingly fragile world order,” says Annual Threat Assessment Report 2024
On 11 March, according to a report titled “Annual Threat Assessment 2024” in The Guardian, the US faces an “increasingly fragile world order,” due to great power competition, transnational challenges, and regional conflicts. The report also highlights an ambitious China, a confrontational Russia, some regional players like Iran, and capable non-state actors challenging the US primacy in the international system. The report mainly focused on the growing threats from Russia and Ukraine amid the ongoing Ukraine and Gaza war. The report points out China’s growing security assistance to Russia and its potential interference in US elections due to less intent to criticise China and increased US societal division. As per the US intelligence assessment, CIA director William Burns told the Senate Intelligence Committee that Putin was not serious about ending the conflict despite economic consequences and that Russia is becoming an economic vassal to China. The director of national intelligence, Avril Haines, said that the US Congress must continue its support to Kyiv and also send a tough message to China on its aggression against its neighbours such as Taiwan or in the South China Sea. (“US faces ‘increasingly fragile world order’ amid Russia and China threat,” The Guardian, 11 March 2024)
EAST ASIA & THE PACIFIC READER
EAST ASIA
Bilateral meeting between North Korea and Mongolia
On 11 March, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Mongolia said that North Korean Vice-Minister of Foreign Affairs Pak Myong Ho held talks in Mongolia with his counterpart, Amartuvshin Gombosuren. It was an unexpected trip, as North Korea plans to expand its diplomatic ties after its tight isolation during the Covid-19 pandemic. The last visit from North Korea to Mongolia was made by the country’s General Federation of Trade Unions of Korea in 2019. The ministry said that the two sides discussed the steady development of their bilateral relationship and to focus on international and regional cooperation. On 10 March, Pak also met Mongolian Foreign Minister Battsetseg Batmunkh. The ministry sent an invite to North Korea for the 9th International Conference on North-east Asian Security “Ulaanbaatar Dialogue” as well as the World Women’s Forum later in 2024. The two sides agreed to cooperate in areas such as education and culture. (“North Korea’s vice-foreign minister in Mongolia on rare visit,” The Strait Times, 11 March 2024)