NIAS Area Studies
PAKISTAN READER
Photo : AP Photo/Michal Dyjuk/The Washington Post
IN FOCUS
By Ashwin Dhanabalan and Rishma Banerjee
Poland and the EU’s COVID-19 aid impasse ends
Judicial reforms accepted by Poland
The issue between Poland and the EU's COVID-19 package began in November 2020, when Warsaw and Budapest blocked the Union's economic recovery plan. Poland and Hungary were skeptical of the EU's intervention in its member states' media and judiciary systems. The two countries later accepted the EUR 672.5 billion economic plan that would benefit the EU’s member states.
On 14 June, Warsaw accepted a new accountability panel replacing the controversial body that disciplined judges. This comes as the EU's commission conditionally accepted Poland's pandemic recovery plan that would disburse EUR 36 billion to Warsaw. Under the plan, Poland has accepted to get away with its "disciplinary chamber" for judges and has accepted their cases to be heard by courts that are compliant with the EU's law. In addition, the new reforms make it easier for Poland's judges to ask the EU court of justice to rule on specific issues. This also comes as the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) fined Poland EUR one million per day since 27 October 2021 for maintaining a disciplinary chamber for judges.
Poland, Hungary, and the EU triangle
The EU has accused Hungary and Poland of eroding their governance standards and has been troublesome to the bloc. The two countries wielded their veto rights whenever Poland or Hungary was subjected to disciplinary processes. An EU diplomat said: "The bond between [Poland and Hungary] has been a safety net for them, meaning they had no fear of being stuck in the Article 7 procedure and having to bear the consequences."
However, the relations between the two countries have received setbacks due to the war in Ukraine. Since Hungary is greatly dependent on Russia for its energy needs, it has softened the EU's approach to energy sanctions against Moscow. On the other hand, Poland has been accommodating Ukraine's 3.5 million refugees and is playing an active role in the war, which has brought it under the favor of the EU. In contrast, Hungary's EUR 7.2 billion remains stuck as the EU withheld its funds because of corruption charges.
Poland and the EU: Three issues ahead
First, the EU's push to reshape the Eastern Europe. The EU has been facing issues in uniting its Eastern most members to a uniform European identity based on similar norms and values. It faced issues with Ukraine refusing to sign its broad trade and security agreement. Thus, with Poland accepting EU’s judicial changes, it has revived the EU’s push for European unity in the East. Poland accepting a political compromise would set off Hungary to follow suit and eventually rest of EU’s eastern member states.
Second, resistance from the European parliament. The changes by Poland's president Andrzej Duda were mainly seen as superficial. The judge who had been highly critical of the government's actions was reinstated under the new policies but was appointed to a different court and was then sent on leave. This drew criticism from the centrist lawmakers in the European parliament. The lawmakers argued that Poland failed to address the issues at hand and that EU's conditions were premature.
Third, spending the recovery funds. Poland would not receive the funds at once, as Warsaw would have to complete certain milestones described in its national plan. Thus, this would lead to occasional audits and transparency mechanisms that both Poland and the EU would have to work towards together.
References:
"Poland changes judiciary law; demands EU release COVID funds,' The Washington Post, 14 June 2022
Francesco Guarascio, "EU fails to agree corporate tax reform as Hungary vetoes overhaul," Reuters, 17 June 2022
Jack Arnholz, "EU in turmoil after Poland and Hungary block coronavirus relief plan," ABC News, 17 November 2020
"How can Poland spend its EU Covid recovery funds well?," Notes from Poland, 13 June 2022
"Hungary's Viktor Orbán loses friends in Poland over stance on Russia sanctions," Financial Times, 09 June 2022
"Poland must enact judicial reforms to receive Covid aid, says EU chief," France24, 2 June 2022
Stefan Auer and Nicole Scicluna, "The EU's future lies in its east," POLITICO, 15 June 2022
“It is special military operation” and not invasion: Says Russian Foreign Minister in an interview to the BBC
On 16 June, Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov met Russia’s editor for the BBC, Steve Rosenberg for an interview. This marks one of the very few interviews that Lavrov has given since 24 February 2022. He spoke about Russia’s role in Ukraine, and the interference of NATO, elucidating Russia’s narrative about the conflict. He also shed light on the deteriorating Russia-UK relations.
Four takeaways
First, Russia’s emphasis on “special military operation” in Ukraine. Reiterating president Putin’s previous statements, Lavrov maintained that the conflict in Ukraine was not an invasion. He said: "We declared a special military operation because we had absolutely no other way of explaining to the West that dragging Ukraine into NATO was a criminal act." This comes as NATO countries have increased their support to Ukraine, but the military alliance itself has not deployed any combat troops. The alliance maintains that the build-up of their troops in Eastern Europe was simply a response to Russia’s own build-up along Ukraine’s border.
Second, Russia’s accusation of spreading of fake news. Rosenberg referred to a report by the United Nations, about 360 people in Yahidne village, who were being held hostage by Russia’s forces. Lavrov responded to it by saying that multilateral bodies like the UNHCR and the UN Secretary-General have been pressured by the West to spread and promote fake news to vilify Russia.
Third, Russia’s souring relations with the UK. Russia has put the UK on their list of unfriendly countries. Lavrov spoke about the foreign ministry’s sanctions on prime minister Boris Johnson, foreign secretary Liz Truss, and 11 other politicians, over their “hostile actions”. Additionally, he extended a challenge to them, saying that he would like to see the UK trying to bring Russia ‘to its knees.” He added that the government in the UK was sacrificing the people’s interest for political gains. Concerning the two UK nationals sentenced to death by the Donetsk People’s Republic court, Lavrov mentioned that he was not concerned with the narrative the West depicted. Instead, he said Russia referred to international law and further mentioned that the court would decide if the two men were mercenaries or combatants.
Fourth, Russian accusation of genocide by Ukraine. Lavrov referred to the failure of Kyiv in implementing the Minsk agreement, which protects the Russian people in the Donbas region. Lavrov pointed fingers at BBC and also accused them of misreporting facts about pro-Russian civilians being bombed for eight years. Russia maintains that Ukraine has been committing genocide in the separatist-held region in the east, since 2014. Throughout the interview, Lavrov referred to Ukraine’s aggression against their own citizens with pro-Russian sentiments. He said, this operation is thus the only way to de-nazify Ukraine, and liberate the people residing in the Donbas region.
References
Steve Rosenberg, “Lavrov: Russia is not squeaky clean and not ashamed,” BBC, 16 June 2022
“Ukraine War: Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov fact-checked,” BBC, 17 June 2022
“Russian Foreign Minister claims ‘we didn’t invade Ukraine-BBC News,” YouTube, 18 June 2022
War in Ukraine: Day 114
By Padmashree Anandhan
War on the Ground
On 17 January, upon three European leaders' visit to Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy addressed the Prespa Forum Dialogue highlighting the exiting challenges in the gas market, food market, and refugee problem. He also gave a short brief on the upcoming EU-Western Balkans High-Level Summit which is expected to provide answers on the future of Europe and the European perspective on how society and economies will develop.
During UK prime minister Boris Johnson’s visit, Zelenskyy thanked him for his second visit and for agreeing to provide the military training and supply of weapons to fight Russia.
The eastern Ukrainian region of Luhansk governor, Serhiy Haidai reported on the continuing fights in the Sievierodonetsk city where 568 people have been claimed to be taking shelter amidst the constant fighting.
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 17 June, TASS reported on Russia’s president Vladimir Putin’s address in the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum’s plenary session. On the mounting sanctions from the West, Putin said that Russia will be producing its own set of products with the disappearance of goods from the West and highlighted that the sanctions will have a counter effect on the global economy. He said: “European politicians have landed a heavy blow on their economies. They did it themselves, with their own hands.” On Ukraine joining the EU, Putin addressed that Russia will not have a problem as the EU is not a military organization. He also criticized the elites of Ukraine for making a choice favoring the West. On the questions of red lines and strikes beyond, Putin avoided responding. Apart from this Putin also spoke on the recognition of the Donbas region within the UN’s Charter and will continue to protect the interests of the Donbas residents.
On 17 June, in an interview with CNN, Russian Presidential Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that Russia will need 40 to 50 per cent of its import deficit to be waged for the short-term period. With the increasing sanctions from the West, Russia can counter by reorganizing imports and redirecting them from the east.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 17 June, the European Commission released an opinion stressing Ukraine’s candidate status in the EU. According to European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen: “I commend the positive EU Commission conclusion on Ukraine's candidate status. It's the first step on the EU membership path that'll certainly bring our victory closer.” Along with the EU, Moldova has also supported the decision of Ukraine to join the EU. Ursula added that this first step will lead to both Ukraine and Moldova a step closer to joining the EU and later will receive access to financial aid and economic reforms.
Upon the three European leaders of France, Germany, and Italy meeting Zelenskyy in Ukraine showed their support to Ukraine in joining the EU. Apart from this Norway has announced its joining with the EU sanctions against Russia. In the statement released, Norway said the immediate implementation of a ban on crude oil import and related products to Russia. It also added that such counter-sanctions on Russia will have an effect on it employees, and Norwegian enterprises.
Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko warned the Ukraine officials about launching attacks on Russian cities. He reported that Ukraine’s demand for more tech long-range weapons such as Kursk, Rostov, Orel, and Belgorod can expect counter-attacks from Russia as it will use newer weapons. He said: “And they will be used against Kyiv, against those who make these decisions. That’s why they are still a little bit apprehensive.”
On 17 June, UK defence intelligence reported that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is leading it to fasten towards authoritarianism. Along with this it also stated close to 15000 Russian millionaires have applied to exit the UK.
Italy and France’s energy enterprises have confirmed the reduction in gas supplies from Russia. Both the energy firms, Eni and GRTgaz said that the supplies have gone down since 15 May.
The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war
The United Nations' humanitarian agency (OCHA) has raised concerns about the worsening humanitarian impact in the Donbas region. It said: “Nearly four months since the start of the war, the humanitarian situation across Ukraine — particularly in the eastern Donbas — is extremely alarming and continues to deteriorate rapidly.” It highlighted the situation in Sievierodonetsk where heavy shelling has taken place and reported that close to 8.8 million people had received aid from the UN.
On 17 June, TASS reported on the comments made by the spokesperson of China’s Embassy in the US on how China stands to bar all measures targeted to escalate the conflict. According to the spokesperson, China will support the negotiation and steps toward a peace settlement in the Ukraine conflict. He said: “China is not a party directly related to the issue, but it has been committed to promoting peace talks and playing a constructive role in pursuing a peaceful settlement of the crisis.”
References
“Ukraine war: 'Make no compromise with Putin' - Johnson meets Zelensky,” BBC, 17 June 2022
“Ukraine: Boris Johnson makes second trip to Kyiv — as it happened,” Deutsche Welle, 17 June 2022
“Both Ukraine and the Western Balkans are equally interested in a united Europe - President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's address to the participants of the Prespa Forum Dialogue,” The President of Ukraine, 17 June 2022
“Gazprom reduces gas supplies to Italy, France cut off,” Deutsche Welle, 17 June 2022
“European Commission recommends Ukraine be granted EU candidate status,” Deutsche Welle, 17 June 2022
“Lukashenko warns Kiev against possible attempts to attack Russian cities,” TASS, 17 June 2022
“Putin’s answers at SPIEF: Ukraine, sanctions and Donbass warfare,” TASS, 17 June 2022
“Norway imposes new sanctions on Russia,” TASS, 17 June 2022
“China stands firm against fueling tensions in Ukraine — China’s Embassy in US,” TASS, 17 June 2022
“Russia needs to compensate 40-45% of import deficit in short term period — Peskov,” TASS, 17 June 2022
IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan and Sai Pranav
FRANCE
Paris awaits its second round of legislative elections
On 12 June, according to France24, the first round of the legislative elections in France took place, with almost 52.49 registered voters taking an abstention. The abstention rate of the first round had crossed the previous record, which happened in 2017. Jean-Luc Mélenchon is leading the left coalition, as NUPES is giving president Emmanuel Macron's center-right party a hard time getting a surefire majority in the lower house, which is unusual. Far-right Marine Le Pen's National Rally party is likely to win a few seats in the assembly elections, unprecedented since 1986 when her predecessor won 35 seats. According to a recent survey, the NUPE would likely win around 150 to 190 seats. The number of seats required to win a majority in the house is 289, and according to pollster Ipsos-Sopra Steria, it would be difficult for the Macron-led party to have an absolute majority. ("French legislative elections: The second round, by the numbers," France 24, 17 June 2022)
Outdoor events and festivals prohibited in certain cities
On 17 June, in the city of Gironde, outdoor public events were restricted as historic heat waves hit the Mediterranean region. Indoor events without air-cooling systems were also banned. State forecaster Meteo France mentioned that the early hot spell was caused by a wave of warm air flowing from North Africa. The increasing temperature is to hit 39 degrees Celcius in Paris, and the droughts have raised concerns about wildfires. (“Europe heatwave: Outdoor events banned in parts of France,” BBC, 17 June 2022)
GERMANY
Berlin commemorates the East Germany uprising of 1953
On 17 June, several government officials assembled in Berlin and laid wreaths to mark the 69th anniversary of the tragic revolt in former communist East Germany. The solemn memorials paid tribute to those who died 69 years ago when East Germans came to the streets to protest falling living standards and demand Germany’s reunification. The Soviet troops and East German police suppressed the uprising violently. Mayor of Berlin Franzika Giffey compared the similarities between the Ukrainian’s fight against Russian aggression and the protests for democracy of the East Germans. Giffey stated: “The lesson to be learned for our future from this is that freedom must be fought for again and again.” (“East Germany's 1953 uprising: Values 'still at stake' in war in Ukraine,” Deutsche Welle, 17 June 2022)
THE UK
Leaked sex tape leads to the banning of hundreds of soldiers from NATO
On 17 June, the new head of NATO, general Sir Patrick Sanders, banned hundreds of paratroopers from being deployed in the Balkans due to the emergence of an orgy video from Merville Barracks in Colchester, Essex. Eight out of sixteen paratroopers from the air assault brigade were recorded having consensual sex with a civilian woman taking turns at the barrack while the rest were seen watching the act. General Sanders said that even though this incident is not illegal, it sends a message as a way of disparaging women. He also said that the army must hold itself to the highest standards. As a result, the paratroopers directly involved with the video would be given the pink slip. According to the General, the army's reputation comes first, and undisciplined soldiers would not be tolerated. The battalion responsible would be replaced in the upcoming 10-day Balkan exercise. (Caroline Davies, "Paratroopers banned from Nato deployment after Essex orgy – report," The Guardian, 17 June 2022)
Fashion retailers face losses for customers returning worn clothes
On 17 June, UK retailer Asos stated that fashion retail shops' profits were being hit due to customers returning worn clothes. Wardrobing is the phenomenon where the customers buy many clothes but return most of them, retaining only a few. Wardrobing has hit the fashion industry hard during and after the covid pandemic. Online retail companies like Harrods have had an increase in returns, reducing their profits. They have started to block shoppers suspected of wardrobing when returning products. Zara has initiated charges of GBP 1.95 for online returns. (Fleur Britten, "Fashion brands’ profits hit as customers return worn clothing," The Guardian, 17 June 2022)
CLIMATE CHANGE
Exotic birds migrate to the UK from the Mediterranean region for nestling
On 18 June, the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB) spotted a few rare bee-eater birds trying to breed in Nottinghamshire and Norfolk. Albeit a beautiful sight, the arrival of these birds is an effect of climate change. The birds usually nest in southern Europe and North Africa. Head of the investigation at RSPB, Mark Thomas, stated: “Pushed northwards by climate change, these exotic birds will likely become established summer visitors in the future, having been an early and unmissable sign in the past two decades that the nature and climate emergency has reached our shores.” (“Bee-eaters in Norfolk 'worrying sign of climate change',” BBC, 17 June 2022)
Inundated towns for reservoirs re-emerge as waters recede in Germany and Spain
On 17 June, BBC reported on two sites in Spain and Germany re-emerging from receding waters caused by climate change. A village on the Spanish-Portuguese border named Aceredo, which was flooded to create a reservoir, reappeared after a drought hit the region in February. Another similar site reported was the Edersee, located in the western German state of Hesse, the country's second-biggest reservoir. However, as droughts have become more severe across Germany as the Edersee's water levels decrease, it reveals what is known as the region's Atlantis. Ruins of a bridge, three settlements, and the gravestones of former residents were found there. The project was established over a century ago to feed water to the Weser River and the Mittelland Canal, allowing ships to navigate during the dry summer months. Now, these sites have turned into tourist attractions. (“Severe droughts reveal sunken relics of the past,” Deutsche Welle, 17 June 2022)