Global Politics Explainer

CWA # 1770
Global Politics Explainer
Pakistan-Afghanistan relations:
Why the focus on terrorism, refugees, and Uzbekistan as the third partner?

Abhiruchi Chowdhury
26 July 2025
Photo Source: DawnNewsTV


What happened?
On 20 July, Pakistan’s minister for interior Mohsin Naqvi met Sirajuddin Haqqani, interior minister in the interim Taliban government, in Kabul. The two ministers delved into issues related to “counter-terrorism, infiltration and the proscribed militant organization in Pakistan Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).” Interior Minister Naqvi called for joint efforts to prevent militant organizations from creating “chaos and instability.” He stated that Pakistan for years has provided refuge to those who fled from Afghanistan, and that the country would still welcome Afghani citizens who come through legal channels.

On 19 April, Foreign Minister Dar visited Kabul for a one-day visit to deliberate on the security concerns. Both the countries decided to continue engaging in bilateral discussion for solving disputes. FM Dar claimed that both the countries would not allow their respective territories to be exploited by militant groups for launching terror attacks. FM Dar assured Kabul, that Afghan refugees who were being repatriated from Pakistan would be treated in a fair manner.

On 17 July, Pakistan and Afghanistan along with Uzbekistan inked a “trilateral agreement” for initiating a railway project-Uzbekistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan (UAP) which will link the three countries. It is anticipated that the railway line would be 640 long which would link Termez in Uzbekistan, Logar in Afghanistan and Kurram in Pakistan.

What is the cross-border terrorism issue?
Islamabad had continually accused Afghanistan for furnishing “logistical and operational” backing to the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) which operates from its soil. There have been numerous attempts from the TTP fighters to trespass Af-Pak border, some of which were foiled by the Pakistani security forces. A report brought out by UN Security Council also had backed Pakistan’s claims. According to Global Terrorism Index 2025, 52 per cent of deaths due to terror attacks in Pakistan were orchestrated by the TTP. The two provinces adjoining Afghanistan – KP and Balochistan bore the major brunt of the terror attacks in the country. 

It is unlikely that under Islamabad’s pressure and threats of causing disruptions in bilateral trade, the Taliban government would adopt harsh stance against TTP. It is obvious that Taliban government is looking to partner with other countries in order to reduce their dependency on Islamabad. Russia’s recognition of the Taliban government could be seen as a positive with regards to Taliban’s efforts towards finding new partners. If Pakistan wants to improve relations with Afghanistan, it must see the Taliban as an equal partner, and not a group which can be controlled by the ISI.

What is the Afghan refugee issue?
Pakistan’s federal government had come with a deadline of 31 March 2025 for all the 800,000 Afghan citizens who possessed Afghan Citizen Cards to leave the country. The interior ministry further warned that after the expiration of deadline, government would go ahead with forceful deportation. The move from the government resulted in distress among Afghan refugees who were waiting to be resettled in other countries. After the announcement from the government, close to two lakh Afghan citizens have returned to Afghanistan from Pakistan.

It is clear from the statements of the Pakistani government that Islamabad views housing of Afghan refugees as a big favor to their “Afghan brothers.” While this might be true, government’s threat to forcefully deport refugees, would further aggravate the anti-Pakistan sentiment among Afghan nationals. The step has backtracked years of hardships Pakistan had gone through to earn goodwill of Afghan nationals.

What is the likely future of Pakistan-Afghanistan-Uzbekistan trilateral partnership?
In August 2024, the current PM of Uzbekistan Abdulla Aripov became one of the first head of the states to travel to Afghanistan, after Taliban took control over the country in 2021. During the visit, the two countries signed USD 2.5 billion worth agreements in “trade and investments.” A total of 35 MoUs were also signed during the visit. In October 2024, Uzbekistan appointed its envoy for Afghanistan.

On 25 February, PM Sharif embarked on a “two-day visit” to Uzbekistan. The two countries had then decided to enhance their bilateral trade volume to USD two billion. In June, to increase connectivity, flights were opened between Tashkent and Islamabad.      

For the trilateral partnership to foster between Uzbekistan, Pakistan and Afghanistan, it is important that the UAP railway line project gets to see the light of the day. However, there is a possibility that the project might witness the same fate as that of gas pipeline between Iran and Pakistan. Though Uzbekistan does not have sanctions imposed on it like Iran, the fragile economic situation in Pakistan could emerge as a challenge for completion of the project.

References:
“Interior Minister Naqvi discusses counterterrorism in Kabul meeting with Afghan counterpart,” Dawn, 20 July 2025
Kamran Yousaf, “Pakistan upgrades ties with Afghanistan,” The Express Tribune, 31 May 2025
“Pakistani diplomat in Afghanistan granted rank of ambassador amid ‘improving ties,’” Dawn, 30 May 2025
Shahabullah Yousafzai, “Pak, China push regional shift with Afghanistan,” The Express Tribune, 11 May 2025
Tahir Khan, “Trilateral dialogue: Afghan Taliban govt seeks constructive engagement with Pakistan, China,” Dawn, 11 May 2025
Tahir Khan, “FM Dar says Afghan side told won’t allow each other’s soil to be used for terror,” Dawn, 19 April 2025
Kamran Yousaf, “Pakistan, Afghanistan, Uzbekistan ink rail project deal,” The Express Tribune, 18 July 2025
Umair Jamal, “Pakistan-Afghanistan Trade Grows Amid Security Challenges,” The Diplomat, 16 July 2025
Amin Ahmed, “Pakistan rises to second in Global Terrorism Index,” Dawn, 6 March 2025
“54 terrorists killed as infiltration attempt thwarted in KP: ISPR,” Dawn, 27 April 2025
Iftikhar A Khan, “March 31 deadline for Afghan citizen card holders to exit Pakistan,” Dawn, 8 March 2025
“200,000 Afghans left Pakistan since deportations renewed,” Dawn, 4 June 2025)
Catherine Putz, “Uzbekistan Forges Ahead, Deepening Relations With Taliban-ruled Afghanistan,” The Diplomat, 21 August 2024
“Uzbekistan Appoints Oybek Usmanov as New Ambassador to Afghanistan,” Kabul Now, 28 October 2024
“Pakistan and Uzbekistan agree to expand bilateral trade to $2bn,” Dawn, 26 February 2025
Imtiaz Ali, “Uzbekistan Airlines flies inaugural Pakistani route: PAA,” Dawn, 14 June 2025
“PM Shehbaz arrives in Uzbekistan on 2-day visit to boost bilateral ties,” Dawn, 25 February 2025
Sarah Zaman, “Pakistan hires 2 law firms to fight Iran's pipeline delay claim,” VOA, 5 November 2024
 


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