PR Commentary

CWA # 2220
PR Commentary
Pakistan's Federal Budget FY2026-27:
Five takeaways on Consolidation, Growth and Structural Reform

Dhivya KM
31 July 2026
Photo Source:

On 12 June 2026, the Federal Budget for FY2026-27, submitted by the government to the National Assembly, as per the constitutional provisions laid down in Article 80(1) of the Constitution of Pakistan, is the annual financial plan of the government. The total projected spending for the fiscal year is PKR 25.2 trillion while the total resources stand the same. This budget shows that there has been a definite shift from the concept of stabilisation to that of growth and development.

The following are five key takeaways from the report. 

1. Revenue mobilisation is critical, along with a major rise in revenue targets of the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR)
In the current budget, a highly ambitious revenue target has been fixed, whereby FBR will mobilise PKR 15.3 trillion in taxes for FY2026-27. This is a huge rise over the revised target for the last fiscal year. While talking about direct taxes, these will reach PKR 7.6 trillion whereas the indirect taxes will come out to be PKR 7.7 trillion. In the case of non-tax revenue, which would be generated through ministries/divisions, they are estimated to provide PKR 5.3 trillion in revenue, where the petroleum levy will keep on making the highest contribution in this respect. Revenue targets of the government are based on reforms in FBR administration, rationalisation of tax exemptions, and broad-based tax system. But it needs to be borne in mind that according to Statement of Fiscal Risks, revenue shortfall risks on account of lower tax elasticity, SBP surplus profits, or petroleum levy continue to remain the most pressing risks to the fiscal framework.

2. Debt servicing dominates expenditure, but social protection and defence allocations rise
Current expenditure on the revenue account is budgeted at PKR 17.5 trillion, of which debt servicing alone accounts for over PKR 8 trillion. Servicing of domestic debt primarily interest payments on Pakistan Investment Bonds, Treasury Bills, and Ijara Sukuk is the largest single line item in the budget, reflecting the accumulated cost of years of high fiscal deficits and domestic borrowing. The defence budget rises to PKR 3 trillion, the largest allocation to the sector in recent years. Social protection spending climbs to PKR 857 billion on the revenue account, with the Benazir Income Support Programme alone allocated PKR 845 billion. Superannuation allowances and pensions are budgeted at PKR 1.2 trillion. Health and education allocations have also been revised upward, with PKR 1 billion specifically for free medicines in federal hospitals and grants extended to the Higher Education Commission. Total public debt repayment on the capital account is projected at PKR 26 trillion, underlining the scale of the government’s gross borrowing and repayment cycle.

3. External borrowing rises sharply, reflecting growing reliance on foreign loans
Total external receipts are budgeted at PKR 6.8 trillion in FY2026–27, a significant increase over revised estimates of the previous year. Most of this external financing is drawn from commercial and other loans rather than concessional project loans, reflecting a move toward more expensive sources of external funding. Project loans under the Public Sector Development Programme have been scaled back, while the government has budgeted a large increase in “other loans” a category that includes commercial credits, and bilateral arrangements. External grants remain small and are declining. The Statement of Fiscal Risks identifies exchange rate depreciation as a factor that could push up external debt servicing costs, although the government's baseline projections assume the exchange rate will stay relatively stable over the year. 

4. Development expenditure is trimmed, but climate, gender, and disaster budgeting are institutionalised
Total development expenditure is budgeted at PKR 1.6 trillion, a modest reduction from the previous year’s revised figures. Within this, development spending on the capital account declines, while the revenue-side development allocation holds roughly steady. The Public Sector Development Programme continues to focus on infrastructure, water resources, energy, and information technology. What stands out in FY2026–27 is the formal institutionalisation of three cross-cutting budget frameworks: the Climate Budget Statement, the Gender Budget Statement, and the Disaster Budget Statement. Climate-responsive allocations account for one per cent of the current budget and 11 per cent of the development budget, with the government introducing an AI-enabled digital infrastructure to track climate-related expenditures across more than 5,000 cost centres. Gender-budgeting spending accounts for 9 per cent of the current budget.

5. Contingent liabilities and fiscal risks remain elevated, with state-owned enterprises a persistent concern
The budget's statement of contingent liabilities shows sovereign guarantees stood at PKR 4.3 trillion as of end-March 2026, with the power sector accounting for more than half. New guarantees issued during FY2026 are set to push the closing guaranteed debt position to around PKR 5 trillion by end-June 2027, driven by projects such as Reko Diq, the ML-3 Rail Project, and the C-5 Power Project. State-owned enterprises remain a persistent fiscal risk, held back by years of inefficiencies and weak governance, and the government is hoping to turn things around through performance-based contracts and by selling off or shutting down the loss-making ones. Natural disasters remain the biggest wildcard, since just one bad event could push the fiscal deficit up by 1.5 per cent of GDP. Overall, Pakistan's FY2026–27 budget makes it clear the government is turning from stabilisation towards growth. The FBR is aiming to bring in PKR 15.3 trillion in revenue, mostly through rationalising taxes and widening the tax base. There's also a growing reliance on external commercial loans, which could mean pricier borrowing ahead. Development spending has been trimmed a bit, though climate, gender, and disaster budgeting have finally been made a permanent part of the process.
 

About the author

Dhivya KM is a Research Intern at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru. She is currently pursuing an MA in Financial Economics at the Madras School of Economics, with research interests spanning financial markets and geopoliti


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What are the social, economic and environmental implications of Arctic warming
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1719

J Yamini  

China’s EV Surge
What contributes to the rise of BYD
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1717

J Yamini

Gender Violence in Pakistan:
What are the larger issues in the Noor Mukadam case?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1715

Femy Francis

The US-China:
On Tariffs, Rare Earths and Visas
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1713

GP Team

The World This Week #315
The UN Ocean Conference in France and the US-China Meeting in London
CW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1712

R Preetha

The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1705

GP Team

The World This Week #314
Elections in South Korea and Poland I China and the Pacific Island Countries I Bangladesh Election Announcement 2026
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1703

M Kejia 

Sagarmatha Sambaad in Nepal
Kathmandu’s Global Agenda for the Himalayas
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1700

R Preetha

Ethiopia bans the TPLF
What does the TPLF ban mean for the Pretoria agreement? What next for Ethiopia?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1694

Aashish Ganeshan

The US:
Harvard vs Trump Administration
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1691

GP Team

The World This Week #313
China-ASEAN-GCC Summit I President Macron's visit to South East Asia I Trump Vs Harvard
The World This Week
May 2025 | CWA # 1690

GP Team

The World This Week #312
Elections in Romania, Portugal & Poland I UK-EU Summit
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1689

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine
Continuing Russia’s Aerial Attacks, despite exchange of prisoners
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1688

Ayan Datta

Gaza
The Humanitarian Crisis and Israel’s Renewed Offensive
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1685

Aparna A Nair

UK-EU Summit:
First step towards a reset
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1683

Aashish Ganeshan

Elections in Portugal:
The Rise of Chega Party and the Search for Political Stability
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1679

Aashish Ganeshan

US in the Middle Easr
Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1678

Gauri Gupta

China in Latin America
China-CELAC forum: Strengthening ties with Latin America and Caribbean
The World This Week
May 2025 | CWA # 1677

GP Team

The World This Week #310-311
China in Latin America and the Carribbean I Trump's Middle East Visit I Denmark as the new Arctic Chair
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1675

Lekshmi MK

Turkey:
PKK disbands after 40 years of armed insurgency
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1673

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine:
The Discussion in Turkiye and the Elusive Ceasefire
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1671

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

US, Ukraine and Russia:
Air attacks amidst a Minerals deal and Ceasefire Proposals
Global Politics Early Bird
May 2025 | CWA # 1670

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Singapore Elections in 2025:
People’s Action Party (PAP) Wins, Again
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1667

R Preetha and Brighty Ann Sarah

East Asia:
Tough Tariff Negotiations with the US
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1666

Padmashree Anandhan

The US-Ukraine
The mineral deal with the US
Conflict Weekly
May 2025 | CWA # 1665
Conflict Weekly # 280-81
India-Pakistan De-escalation I Ukraine Discussion in Istanbul I The Battle over Port Sudan I Disbanding of PKK in Turkiye I France-Algeria Diplomatic Tensions
Global Politics Early Bird
May 2025 | CWA # 1663

R Preetha

Canada Elections 2025:
What do the results convey? What next for Mark Carney?
Conflict Weekly 250th Issue
October 2024 | CWA # 1480

IPRI Team

This Week in History
July 2024 | CWA # 1413

Ramya B

Global Politics Early Bird
May 2024 | CWA # 1336

Femy Francis

This Week in History
April 2024 | CWA # 1275

Ramya B

NIAS Global Politics Database
March 2024 | CWA # 1251

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
This Week in History
March 2024 | CWA # 1246

Sivasubramanian K

NIAS Global Politics Database
February 2024 | CWA # 1226

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
The World This Week
November 2023 | CWA # 1148

GP Team

The War in Ukraine
October 2023 | CWA # 1091

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri

Issues for Europe
NIAS Pakistan Weekly
October 2023 | CWA # 1087

PR Team

The World This Week
October 2023 | CWA # 1083

GP Team

Conflict Weekly
August 2023 | CWA # 1049

IPRI Team

IPRI Quarterly Forecasts I Triggers, Trends, and Trajectories
July 2023 | CWA # 1012

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar continues to burn
The World This Week
July 2023 | CWA # 1009

GP Team

2022: The World This Year
December 2022 | CWA # 879

Padmashree Anandhan

The Ukraine War
2022: The World This Year
December 2022 | CWA # 872

Sapna Elsa Abraham

Europe: Heatwaves, Wildfires, Droughts, and Ice Melt in Alps
November 2022 | CWA # 838

Rishma Banerjee

Tracing Europe's droughts
NIAS Africa Weekly
March 2022 | CWA # 705

NIAS Africa Team

In Focus: Libya
The World This Week: 150th Issue
December 2021 | CWA # 630

GP Team

Europe in 2021
Pakistan Reader
October 2021 | CWA # 588

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

TLP is back again
NIAS Fortnightly on Science, Technology & International Relations
August 2021 | CWA # 528

STIR Team

Space Tourism
GLOBAL PROTEST MOVEMENTS
September 2020 | CWA # 337

Anju Annie Mammen

The FATF Meeting, February 2020
February 2020 | CWA # 235

Lakshmi V Menon

Science, Technology and International Relations
September 2019 | CWA # 162

Lakshman Chakravarthy N

5G: A Primer
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 71

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 70

Nasima Khatoon

The Maldives
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 69

Harini Madhusudan

India
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 68

Sourina Bej

Bangladesh
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 67

Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer

Afghanistan
United States
July 2018 | CWA # 47

Rahul Arockiaraj

East Asia
June 2018 | CWA # 26

Siddhatti Mehta