The World This Quarter

CWA # 2235
The World This Quarter
Southeast Asia (April-June 2026)
Economic headwinds, Internal friction, and Contrasting domestic developments

Adwaith Sankar
12 August 2026
Photo Source:

In the second quarter of 2026, Southeast Asia navigated internal and external conflicts while grappling with global economic headwinds.

1. Min Aung Hlaing’s Presidency and the institutionalisation of military rule
Min Aung Hlaing officially assumed Myanmar’s presidency on 10 April. This marked a turning point after an election process between December 2025 and January 2026. The following events institutionalised military rule in the country. The vast majority of parliamentary seats belong to the pro-military bloc including the USDP. Soon after assuming the presidency, Min Aung Hlaing offered armed groups talks. However, the National Unity Government, the primary group opposing military rule, dismissed this offer. Ethnic armed groups including the Karen National Union and Chin National Front rejected this offer. Subsequently, the government renewed martial law in 60 townships for a further 90 days, their administration vested in commander-in-chief Ye Win Oo. The armed conflicts have yet to subside. The army managed to retake three areas using conscription and drones between April and May. From May, the Arakan Army pushed deeper into the Ayeyarwady Region.

In terms of foreign policy, the president has been attempting to normalise relations with ASEAN and build closer ties with neighboring states. The president made his first foreign visit to India on 30 May and met senior leaders including the Prime Minister. A clear diplomatic success for the administration was the president’s state visit to China in June that included the signing of several deals including cooperation on transport and disaster relief. Although ASEAN foreign ministers met Myanmar’s foreign minister for the first time since the coup, at an informal meeting in Bangkok on 12 July after the quarter, Naypyidaw’s normalisation goal has not been achieved. ASEAN has continued to push its five-point plan, which Min Aung Hlaing rejected in a 31 July address.

2. Thailand-Cambodia conflict frozen as engagement remains limited to lawfare
The border conflict that took place in December has resulted in a tense relationship between the two countries this quarter. Prime Minister Anutin’s second cabinet was sworn in on 6 April after a snap election that gave the Bhumjaithai party the largest share of seats. In May, this conservative-nationalist administration terminated the 2001 MOU with Cambodia regarding overlapping maritime claims. Cambodia, in response, initiated compulsory conciliation under UNCLOS. In turn, Thailand agreed to the 12-month non-binding process in June. Separately, Cambodia brought back the conscription law that enforced two-year service. For the first time since October 2025, PM Anutin and PM Hun Manet met in Cebu in May. This meeting did not result in the reopening of the border but did involve talks about de-escalation and trust-building. No armed clashes between the countries occurred this quarter but the Thai army alleges that explosions have occurred.

3. Economic shocks of Hormuz and Tariffs produce economic challenges
The ASEAN Regional Forum, held in July just after the quarter, featured the Hormuz crisis prominently. For ASEAN, the crisis has had economic impacts because of maritime trade and energy imports being vital to the region. The Philippines, which purchases 98 per cent of its crude oil from the Middle East, saw inflation reach 7.2 per cent in April. Thailand, economically reliant on tourism, cut its foreign arrivals target citing energy-price volatility among other reasons. The Indonesian rupiah fell to record lows in June. Indonesia’s central bank subsequently increased interest rates, with turmoil from the war in the Middle East being named as a reason. At the 48th ASEAN Summit in May, leaders called for the expedited ratification of the ASEAN Petroleum Security Agreement.

Apart from the Hormuz crisis, US tariffs have resulted in economic uncertainty in the region. Many Southeast Asian countries have had changes to bilateral trade deals made with the US in 2025. Malaysia’s deal was terminated. Indonesia’s deal has not been implemented. Vietnam’s deal remains under negotiation, and US talks with Thailand are still active. In June, the USTR proposed tariffs on 60 trading partners including ASEAN states. Indonesia, Cambodia, and Malaysia would face 10 per cent. Vietnam, Singapore, the Philippines, and Thailand would face 12.5 per cent. The duties took effect on 24 July, after the quarter.

4. South China Sea sees greater tension between the Philippines and China
The high points of tension in the South China Sea occurred between the Philippines and China. The Chinese Coast Guard’s presence at the Scarborough Shoal increased in May and remained elevated in June. The Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative described the CCG’s activity this year as being beyond any levels previously observed. During May, a US Coast Guard vessel joined the Philippines’ forces for a joint patrol activity near Scarborough Shoal for the first time. In June, a Philippine frigate encountered four PLA Navy warships. Similarly, there was a clash in July, after the quarter’s end, around the Second Thomas Shoal in which the Philippine military asserted that the CCG injured one of its sailors. A 15-year communications-security arrangement between the Philippines and the US was announced at a ministerial-level meeting on 30 May. Vietnam protested China’s annual fishing ban that took effect in May. In the disputed Spratly island chain, Vietnam has been building infrastructure. According to Radio Free Asia, Vietnam is building maritime and military infrastructure at 27 sites across reefs in the islands.

5. Contrasting domestic politics in the region
In Vietnam, domestic politics remained relatively stable with To Lam assuming Vietnam’s presidency while remaining the General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam. Le Minh Hung was confirmed as Prime Minister with a unanimous vote from the National Assembly. On the other hand, Malaysia witnessed federal coalition partners contest against each other in state elections. Federal partner blocs Pakatan Harapan and Barisan Nasional contested against each other in Johor and Negeri Sembilan. In polls held after the quarter, BN won Johor with an overwhelming majority on 11 July and won the highest number of seats in Negeri Sembilan in early August. In the latter state, the BN formed a coalition with PN, which the federal coalition aimed to keep out. In Indonesia, President Prabowo executed his fifth cabinet reshuffle in eighteen months. In June, Indonesian students protested against a fuel-price increase, the rupiah’s fall, and the management of the free school-meals program. In the Philippines, Vice-President Duterte was impeached for a second time in May.

To conclude: Southeast Asia in the second quarter (April-June 2026)
The second quarter saw certain governments consolidating power and other governments facing political hurdles. The region continues to deal with land and maritime territorial disputes with lawfare becoming increasingly relevant. Global economic headwinds produced outside the region continue to add to uncertainty and challenges.

About the author

Adwaith Sankar is an undergraduate student pursuing Political Science and International Liberal Studies through the NUS-Waseda Double Degree Programme. He is currently an intern at NIAS.


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July 2025 | CWA # 1738

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Thailand and Cambodia
What was the phone call between PM Shinawatra and President of Senate Hun Sen? What is the border dispute between the two? Why has this become an issue?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1735

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025:
Trump making Europe great again
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1734

GP Team

The World This Week #317
NATO Summit 2025 and Russia-Mali bilateral agreements
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1733

Ananya Dinesh

China and the Pacific Islands 
What was the recent China-PIC joint statement about? What it says, and what it means?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1728

M Kejia

G7 Summit 2025:
The Focus on the Middle East and Trade negotiations
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1726

GP Team

The World This Week #316
China-Central Asia Summit in Kazakhstan, and the G7 Summit in Canada
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1725

Brighty Ann Sarah, R Preetha, Santhiya M, Aparna A Nair & M Kejia

Operation Midnight Hammer: US bombs three nuclear sites in Iran
What were the three Iranian nuclear sites that were targeted? What are the B2 Bombers and Bunker Buster Bombs? What do these attacks mean? What Next?
Conflict Weekly
June 2025 | CWA # 1724

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #286
The Spiralling Israel-Iran Crisis, and the Dangerous Hunger Hotspots
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1721

Rizwana Banu S and Santhiya M

Who are the Afrikaners?
Why is Trump interested in the Afrikaner question in South Africa?
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1720

Lekshmi MK

New WMO Report on Arctic Warming
What are the social, economic and environmental implications of Arctic warming
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1719

J Yamini  

China’s EV Surge
What contributes to the rise of BYD
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1717

J Yamini

Gender Violence in Pakistan:
What are the larger issues in the Noor Mukadam case?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1715

Femy Francis

The US-China:
On Tariffs, Rare Earths and Visas
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1713

GP Team

The World This Week #315
The UN Ocean Conference in France and the US-China Meeting in London
CW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1712

R Preetha

The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1705

GP Team

The World This Week #314
Elections in South Korea and Poland I China and the Pacific Island Countries I Bangladesh Election Announcement 2026
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1703

M Kejia 

Sagarmatha Sambaad in Nepal
Kathmandu’s Global Agenda for the Himalayas
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1700

R Preetha

Ethiopia bans the TPLF
What does the TPLF ban mean for the Pretoria agreement? What next for Ethiopia?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1694

Aashish Ganeshan

The US:
Harvard vs Trump Administration
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1691

GP Team

The World This Week #313
China-ASEAN-GCC Summit I President Macron's visit to South East Asia I Trump Vs Harvard
The World This Week
May 2025 | CWA # 1690

GP Team

The World This Week #312
Elections in Romania, Portugal & Poland I UK-EU Summit
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1689

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine
Continuing Russia’s Aerial Attacks, despite exchange of prisoners
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1688

Ayan Datta

Gaza
The Humanitarian Crisis and Israel’s Renewed Offensive
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1685

Aparna A Nair

UK-EU Summit:
First step towards a reset
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1683

Aashish Ganeshan

Elections in Portugal:
The Rise of Chega Party and the Search for Political Stability
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1679

Aashish Ganeshan

US in the Middle Easr
Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1678

Gauri Gupta

China in Latin America
China-CELAC forum: Strengthening ties with Latin America and Caribbean
The World This Week
May 2025 | CWA # 1677

GP Team

The World This Week #310-311
China in Latin America and the Carribbean I Trump's Middle East Visit I Denmark as the new Arctic Chair
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1675

Lekshmi MK

Turkey:
PKK disbands after 40 years of armed insurgency
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1673

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine:
The Discussion in Turkiye and the Elusive Ceasefire
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1671

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

US, Ukraine and Russia:
Air attacks amidst a Minerals deal and Ceasefire Proposals
Global Politics Early Bird
May 2025 | CWA # 1670

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Singapore Elections in 2025:
People’s Action Party (PAP) Wins, Again
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1667

R Preetha and Brighty Ann Sarah

East Asia:
Tough Tariff Negotiations with the US
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1666

Padmashree Anandhan

The US-Ukraine
The mineral deal with the US
Conflict Weekly
May 2025 | CWA # 1665
Conflict Weekly # 280-81
India-Pakistan De-escalation I Ukraine Discussion in Istanbul I The Battle over Port Sudan I Disbanding of PKK in Turkiye I France-Algeria Diplomatic Tensions
Global Politics Early Bird
May 2025 | CWA # 1663

R Preetha

Canada Elections 2025:
What do the results convey? What next for Mark Carney?
Conflict Weekly 250th Issue
October 2024 | CWA # 1480

IPRI Team

This Week in History
July 2024 | CWA # 1413

Ramya B

Global Politics Early Bird
May 2024 | CWA # 1336

Femy Francis

This Week in History
April 2024 | CWA # 1275

Ramya B

NIAS Global Politics Database
March 2024 | CWA # 1251

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
This Week in History
March 2024 | CWA # 1246

Sivasubramanian K

NIAS Global Politics Database
February 2024 | CWA # 1226

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
The World This Week
November 2023 | CWA # 1148

GP Team

The War in Ukraine
October 2023 | CWA # 1091

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri

Issues for Europe
NIAS Pakistan Weekly
October 2023 | CWA # 1087

PR Team

The World This Week
October 2023 | CWA # 1083

GP Team

Conflict Weekly
August 2023 | CWA # 1049

IPRI Team

IPRI Quarterly Forecasts I Triggers, Trends, and Trajectories
July 2023 | CWA # 1012

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar continues to burn
The World This Week
July 2023 | CWA # 1009

GP Team

2022: The World This Year
December 2022 | CWA # 879

Padmashree Anandhan

The Ukraine War
2022: The World This Year
December 2022 | CWA # 872

Sapna Elsa Abraham

Europe: Heatwaves, Wildfires, Droughts, and Ice Melt in Alps
November 2022 | CWA # 838

Rishma Banerjee

Tracing Europe's droughts
NIAS Africa Weekly
March 2022 | CWA # 705

NIAS Africa Team

In Focus: Libya
The World This Week: 150th Issue
December 2021 | CWA # 630

GP Team

Europe in 2021
Pakistan Reader
October 2021 | CWA # 588

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

TLP is back again
NIAS Fortnightly on Science, Technology & International Relations
August 2021 | CWA # 528

STIR Team

Space Tourism
GLOBAL PROTEST MOVEMENTS
September 2020 | CWA # 337

Anju Annie Mammen

The FATF Meeting, February 2020
February 2020 | CWA # 235

Lakshmi V Menon

Science, Technology and International Relations
September 2019 | CWA # 162

Lakshman Chakravarthy N

5G: A Primer
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 71

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 70

Nasima Khatoon

The Maldives
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 69

Harini Madhusudan

India
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 68

Sourina Bej

Bangladesh
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 67

Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer

Afghanistan
United States
July 2018 | CWA # 47

Rahul Arockiaraj

East Asia
June 2018 | CWA # 26

Siddhatti Mehta