CW Note

CWA # 2240
CW Note
Escalating attacks in Pakistan:
Resurgence in violence and Ineffective counterterrorism strategy

Akshath Kaimal
13 August 2026
Photo Source:

In the news
On 01 August, Dawn reported that the Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICCS) released its monthly report for July. The report recorded 606 fatalities in July, making it the deadliest month of 2026.

On 02 August, Dawn reported that a suicide attack near the Kabal police station in the Swat Valley in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa killed at least 17 people and injured 30 others during a civilian-organized "Swat Peace Rally”.

On 03 August, Dawn reported that security forces killed 15 militants across several districts in KP as part of the military’s “Operation Azm-e-Istehkam”.

On 10 August, Dawn reported that 140,468 undocumented Afghan nationals had been deported from Punjab since 2023 under the Illegal Foreigners Repatriation Plan. Nationally, the number stood at 2.68 million.

Issues at large
1. The resurgence in violence 
Violence in Pakistan hit historic lows between 2018 and 2020, primarily through operations like “Zarb-e-Azb”.  But since 2021, with the return of the Taliban in Afghanistan, internal violence in Pakistan has risen sharply, from under 1000 deaths in 2022 to 2546 deaths in 2024. In the first seven months of 2026 alone, 2786 deaths were recorded. This clearly signifies a resurgence in violence, primarily driven by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in KP, the Islamic State-Khorasan Province (IS-KP), and separatist groups like the BLA and BLF in Balochistan. These groups have increasingly used suicide bombings as a tactic, with a decade-high eight attacks in July 2026, while also employing heavy explosives, targeted assassinations and kidnappings, showcasing not only a resurgence but also increased sophistication in the strategies used.

2. The geographic concentration of violence 
This resurgence has been geographically concentrated in primarily two provinces of Pakistan: Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Balochistan. PICSS data for July recorded a 241 per cent increase in deaths in Balochistan and 105 per cent in KP. The terrain and landscape of the region plays a major role: the long, porous Durand Line enables cross-border attacks, KP’s rugged mountains and Balochistan’s vast, arid expanse provides militants with natural cover and tactical depth. The complex geography also hampers military responses, allowing militant groups to launch coordinated attacks, high-casualty strikes, and ambushes.

3. Pakistan’s ineffective counterterrorism strategy 
Pakistan mainly relies on kinetic operations to counter militant groups and attacks. While security forces killed 401 terrorists in July, this still remains insufficient for long-term stabilisation, as these actions have failed to dismantle militant networks. At the same time, militants have adapted dynamically, targeting military infrastructure and state intermediaries, evidenced by 19 peace committee members being killed in July. With a 933 per cent spike in security personnel deaths in Balochistan, this shows the government response remains ineffective in stemming the violence primarily because it does not involve reforms to local governance and community engagement. 

4. Afghanistan’s role and domestic governance failures
Pakistan has lately been attributing its security crisis to Afghan militant sanctuaries - a claim validated by the UN and Western intelligence reports. Deteriorating Pakistan-Afghanistan relations have also contributed to the violence, evidenced by the rise in deaths since 2021. Yet, this does not absolve Pakistan of its own policy missteps. While KP struggles with the TTP, Balochistan’s insurgency is driven by internal socioeconomic neglect, political marginalisation, enforced disappearances, and extrajudicial killings. Cross-border safe havens worsen the security crisis, but Pakistan’s failure to address domestic governance grievances remains the primary engine.

5. The human cost of violence 
Civilians bear the heaviest burden of this resurgence in violence, with 463 civilians killed in the first seven months of 2026 alone, compared to 229 deaths in 2022 as a whole. Beyond casualties, violence has crippled regional economies through exploitation, market disruptions, and border closures. Additionally, strained ties with Afghanistan have pushed the government to place the blame on undocumented Afghan nationals, with over 650,000 deported in 2026 alone. This has increased animosity, not only with Afghanistan, but also within border communities in Tirah Valley, for instance, further fueling discontent and violence.

In perspective
First, unless there is a change in Pakistan’s counterterrorism strategy, the violence will continue. Without pairing kinetic operations with civilian governance, judicial reform, and local political engagement, the government will remain behind in its counterterrorism response.

Second, dialogue with Kabul is the need of the hour. While Pakistan and Afghanistan don’t see eye to eye on the TTP, dialogue between the two on other core issues could open doors to a joint counterterrorism effort that could stem the violence, at least in KP.

Third, Balochistan’s grievances cannot be solely addressed with military power. The people of Balochistan have faced economic exploitation, political alienation, and enforced disappearances, which have only emboldened groups like the BLA and BLF. Unless the government can effectively address the grievances of the people without using hard power, the violence is likely to continue.

Akshath Kaimal is a Research Assistant at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru, and is part of the NIAS Pakistan Reader team.
 


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G7 Summit 2025:
The Focus on the Middle East and Trade negotiations
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1726

GP Team

The World This Week #316
China-Central Asia Summit in Kazakhstan, and the G7 Summit in Canada
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1725

Brighty Ann Sarah, R Preetha, Santhiya M, Aparna A Nair & M Kejia

Operation Midnight Hammer: US bombs three nuclear sites in Iran
What were the three Iranian nuclear sites that were targeted? What are the B2 Bombers and Bunker Buster Bombs? What do these attacks mean? What Next?
Conflict Weekly
June 2025 | CWA # 1724

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #286
The Spiralling Israel-Iran Crisis, and the Dangerous Hunger Hotspots
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1721

Rizwana Banu S and Santhiya M

Who are the Afrikaners?
Why is Trump interested in the Afrikaner question in South Africa?
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1720

Lekshmi MK

New WMO Report on Arctic Warming
What are the social, economic and environmental implications of Arctic warming
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1719

J Yamini  

China’s EV Surge
What contributes to the rise of BYD
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1717

J Yamini

Gender Violence in Pakistan:
What are the larger issues in the Noor Mukadam case?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1715

Femy Francis

The US-China:
On Tariffs, Rare Earths and Visas
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1713

GP Team

The World This Week #315
The UN Ocean Conference in France and the US-China Meeting in London
CW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1712

R Preetha

The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1705

GP Team

The World This Week #314
Elections in South Korea and Poland I China and the Pacific Island Countries I Bangladesh Election Announcement 2026
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1703

M Kejia 

Sagarmatha Sambaad in Nepal
Kathmandu’s Global Agenda for the Himalayas
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1700

R Preetha

Ethiopia bans the TPLF
What does the TPLF ban mean for the Pretoria agreement? What next for Ethiopia?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1694

Aashish Ganeshan

The US:
Harvard vs Trump Administration
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1691

GP Team

The World This Week #313
China-ASEAN-GCC Summit I President Macron's visit to South East Asia I Trump Vs Harvard
The World This Week
May 2025 | CWA # 1690

GP Team

The World This Week #312
Elections in Romania, Portugal & Poland I UK-EU Summit
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1689

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine
Continuing Russia’s Aerial Attacks, despite exchange of prisoners
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1688

Ayan Datta

Gaza
The Humanitarian Crisis and Israel’s Renewed Offensive
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1685

Aparna A Nair

UK-EU Summit:
First step towards a reset
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1683

Aashish Ganeshan

Elections in Portugal:
The Rise of Chega Party and the Search for Political Stability
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1679

Aashish Ganeshan

US in the Middle Easr
Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1678

Gauri Gupta

China in Latin America
China-CELAC forum: Strengthening ties with Latin America and Caribbean
The World This Week
May 2025 | CWA # 1677

GP Team

The World This Week #310-311
China in Latin America and the Carribbean I Trump's Middle East Visit I Denmark as the new Arctic Chair
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1675

Lekshmi MK

Turkey:
PKK disbands after 40 years of armed insurgency
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1673

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine:
The Discussion in Turkiye and the Elusive Ceasefire
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1671

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

US, Ukraine and Russia:
Air attacks amidst a Minerals deal and Ceasefire Proposals
Global Politics Early Bird
May 2025 | CWA # 1670

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Singapore Elections in 2025:
People’s Action Party (PAP) Wins, Again
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1667

R Preetha and Brighty Ann Sarah

East Asia:
Tough Tariff Negotiations with the US
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1666

Padmashree Anandhan

The US-Ukraine
The mineral deal with the US
Conflict Weekly
May 2025 | CWA # 1665
Conflict Weekly # 280-81
India-Pakistan De-escalation I Ukraine Discussion in Istanbul I The Battle over Port Sudan I Disbanding of PKK in Turkiye I France-Algeria Diplomatic Tensions
Global Politics Early Bird
May 2025 | CWA # 1663

R Preetha

Canada Elections 2025:
What do the results convey? What next for Mark Carney?
Conflict Weekly 250th Issue
October 2024 | CWA # 1480

IPRI Team

This Week in History
July 2024 | CWA # 1413

Ramya B

Global Politics Early Bird
May 2024 | CWA # 1336

Femy Francis

This Week in History
April 2024 | CWA # 1275

Ramya B

NIAS Global Politics Database
March 2024 | CWA # 1251

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
This Week in History
March 2024 | CWA # 1246

Sivasubramanian K

NIAS Global Politics Database
February 2024 | CWA # 1226

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
The World This Week
November 2023 | CWA # 1148

GP Team

The War in Ukraine
October 2023 | CWA # 1091

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri

Issues for Europe
NIAS Pakistan Weekly
October 2023 | CWA # 1087

PR Team

The World This Week
October 2023 | CWA # 1083

GP Team

Conflict Weekly
August 2023 | CWA # 1049

IPRI Team

IPRI Quarterly Forecasts I Triggers, Trends, and Trajectories
July 2023 | CWA # 1012

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar continues to burn
The World This Week
July 2023 | CWA # 1009

GP Team

2022: The World This Year
December 2022 | CWA # 879

Padmashree Anandhan

The Ukraine War
2022: The World This Year
December 2022 | CWA # 872

Sapna Elsa Abraham

Europe: Heatwaves, Wildfires, Droughts, and Ice Melt in Alps
November 2022 | CWA # 838

Rishma Banerjee

Tracing Europe's droughts
NIAS Africa Weekly
March 2022 | CWA # 705

NIAS Africa Team

In Focus: Libya
The World This Week: 150th Issue
December 2021 | CWA # 630

GP Team

Europe in 2021
Pakistan Reader
October 2021 | CWA # 588

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

TLP is back again
NIAS Fortnightly on Science, Technology & International Relations
August 2021 | CWA # 528

STIR Team

Space Tourism
GLOBAL PROTEST MOVEMENTS
September 2020 | CWA # 337

Anju Annie Mammen

The FATF Meeting, February 2020
February 2020 | CWA # 235

Lakshmi V Menon

Science, Technology and International Relations
September 2019 | CWA # 162

Lakshman Chakravarthy N

5G: A Primer
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 71

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 70

Nasima Khatoon

The Maldives
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 69

Harini Madhusudan

India
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 68

Sourina Bej

Bangladesh
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 67

Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer

Afghanistan
United States
July 2018 | CWA # 47

Rahul Arockiaraj

East Asia
June 2018 | CWA # 26

Siddhatti Mehta