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Padmashree Anandhan
14 March 2026 |
Conflict Weekly #323, 13 March 2026
In the news
War on the ground
On 08 March, Russia and Ukraine exchanged competing claims about battlefield progress. Ukrainian officials said their forces had retaken significant territory during counteroffensives in the south-eastern Dnipropetrovsk region, while Russia’s President Vladimir Putin claimed Russian troops had expanded control in eastern Donbas.
On 10 March, Russia continued strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, targeting an oil pumping station in Ukraine’s Odesa region for the second consecutive day. Ukraine’s state energy company Naftogaz said Russia had attacked its infrastructure more than 30 times as of 2026, describing the strikes as attempts to disrupt alternative energy supply routes to Europe.
On 11 March, Russia condemned a Ukrainian missile strike on Bryansk city located in the border. Regional authorities reported seven dead and several injured.
On 11 March, a dispute between Ukraine and Hungary deepened over the Druzhba oil pipeline carrying Russian crude to Hungary and Slovakia. Hungary’s government said it had dispatched a delegation for talks on reopening the pipeline, but Ukraine denied. Hungary and Slovakia accuse Ukraine of delaying repairs following damage caused by Russian strikes in January.
Moscow view
On 09 March, following the surge in oil prices, Putin announced that Russia was ready to supply oil and gas conditionally. He said: “If European companies and European buyers suddenly decide to reorient themselves and provide us with long-term, sustainable cooperation, free from political pressures, free from political pressures, then yes, we’ve never refused it. We’re ready to work with Europeans too.”
The West view
On 09 March, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine was ready to participate in another round of US-brokered peace talks with Russia at any time. The US has proposed new negotiations that could take place in Switzerland or Turkey after earlier plans for talks in the UAE were disrupted by the Middle East conflict. Zelenskyy said prisoner exchanges could be part of the discussions.
Issues at large
1. Ukraine-Russia attacks in Kharkiv, Donetsk and Bryansk Oblasts
Russian forces continued large-scale missile and drone attacks across Ukraine, targeting energy infrastructure, oil facilities and urban centres such as Kharkiv and Sloviansk. Strikes on Naftogaz infrastructure in the Odesa region highlight Russia's continued focus on energy logistics and alternative supply. At the same time, Ukraine’s forces conducted long-range strikes inside Russian territory. Ukraine's military confirmed the use of UK-supplied Storm Shadow missiles to attack a plant producing components for Russian missile systems in the Bryansk region. Additional drone strikes targeted military infrastructure and airports across southern Russia. These exchanges show the shift in the war on the ground from a rapid front-line fight to targeted attacks on industrial, logistical, and energy facilities.
2. The inconsistent US-led peace diplomacy
The US continues to propose new rounds of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. While it has framed these initiatives as progress toward ending the war, Ukraine and Moscow have described recent talks as difficult and inconclusive. At the same time, other US policy moves, such as temporarily easing certain oil-related sanctions to stabilise global energy markets during the Iran conflict, risk sending mixed signals about pressure on Russia. The result is a diplomatic process that continues to exist but is yet to produce tangible steps toward a ceasefire or settlement.
3. Increasing Ukraine’s drone warfare expertise
Ukraine’s experience countering Iranian-designed Shahed drones is now being shared with Gulf states and other partners facing similar threats. Ukrainian drone interception technologies are also attracting international demand, indicating that Ukraine’s battlefield innovations are influencing broader security cooperation.
Padmashree Anandan is a Project Associate at NIAS.
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