NIAS Europe Studies

CWA # 1003
NIAS Europe Studies
Hybrid Warfare in Ukraine

Lakshmi Parimala
23 June 2023
Photo Source: thestrategybridge.org

In the battle between Russia and Ukraine, drones are integrated into every phase of fighting, with extensive fleets, air defenses and jamming systems.

What happened?
Russia has always used unconventional strategies to compensate their military and technological weakness relative to the West. The predominant use of hybrid warfare by Russia was seen in the 2014 annexation of Crimea, where it has used several unconventional methods such as mercenaries (popularly known as ‘little green men’), cyber-attacks, propaganda, disinformation and economic pressure. Within three weeks, and with only minor skirmishes, the morale of the Ukrainian army was crushed and its 190 military bases were surrendered. Preceding and following the beginning of the ‘special military operation’ of Russia in Ukraine on 24 February, 2022, Russia has adopted similar tactics, like cyberattacks on ViaSat, an American satellite company, on which the Ukrainian military relied for communication, information warfare, in the name of stamping out Nazis and of alleged genocide of Russian speakers in Ukraine, and spreading propaganda on social media platforms such as Vkontakte, Telegram and Yandex.

However, these tactics seem to have not worked out in the favor of Russia, in contrast to what happened eight years ago. On the contrary, Ukraine, supported by the West, has been putting up a strong resistance against the Russian forces, countering Russia’s hybrid warfare.

Three issues to watch in 2023
1. Russia may not succeed in the hybrid warfare in 2023

Unlike during the annexation of Crimea in 2014, Russia’s success in in 2023 in pursuing a hybrid warfare seems remote. One of the main reasons behind this is the lack of surprise element and the familiarization and adaptation of Ukraine’s security against Russia’s techniques. With the US debunking Russia’s intentions of invasion in early 2022, before the invasion, it has alerted the Ukraine's forces.

A key factor  which furthered Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 was cyber warfare. By attacking Ukraine’s cyberspace - both civil and military, Russia interrupted the functioning of the military, extracted sensitive information, and at the same crippled the morale of civilians. However, eight years later, these techniques of Russia seem to be failing in achieving the same. According to …, the reason behind as the above is: ‘Kyiv’s ability to harness the experience of years of Russian cyber attacks, combined with strong support from Western governments and — crucially — technology companies has allowed Ukraine to deploy cyber defenses at a scale and depth never seen before’. The process of familiarization of Russia’s techniques to Ukraine has begun from 2014, again, from the Russian annexation of Crimea. As mentioned above, besides the adaptation of Ukraine’s cyber security to Russian techniques, the Western governments, together with private companies such as Starlink, of Elon Musk, and Microsoft have also extended their support to Ukraine.

2. Russia’s failure in information and psychological warfare
One of the main motives of a hybrid warfare is to conquer hearts and minds through information and psychological warfare. For Russia, there is a backlash, strengthening the zeal of Ukrainians to keep fighting. The motive behind this is: firstly, to defend and justify the respective country’s actions, and secondly, to influence the public psychologically by degrading their morale. Russia has spread its narrative of stamping out Nazism, genocide of Russian speakers in Ukraine, counterterrorism, ‘people’s war’ and dirty bomb attacks. It has blocked a few websites with anti-Russian information and has also banned Instagram.

Ukraine has been able to effectively turn everything from leaked, unsecure Russian communications to video of anti-armor ambushes (Sabbagh, 2022). Besides failing to justify its action through its narrative, Russia has not been successful even in demoralizing Ukrainians. However, multiple statements from Ukrainian officials and citizens show that on the contrary Russian acts of hybrid warfare such as forcible spread of disinformation and propaganda, attack on civilians and their infrastructure, such as energy grids, have instead made their resolve to fight even stronger, by inciting anger. In the words of the head of Ukrenergo, a power company in Ukraine, “Russia did not achieve its ultimate goal….Instead of making us scared and unhappy, it made us angry, more resolved to win. They did not lower the morale of the nation; they mobilized the nation.”

3. The focus on kinetic war
Recent events show a return to a more kinetic war, at a larger scale, though non-kinetic and unconventional means continue to play in the background. With the winter coming to an end, both the countries are ramping up their arms supplies, with the help of their respective allies. With the failure of hybrid warfare in the initial stages of the war, to capture Ukraine with surprise, the war has now reached an impasse, where both the sides are trying to balance out each other, with Russia having occupied only 18 per cent of Ukraine’s territory, as the war is nearing its one year anniversary. Therefore, the dependence on non-kinetic means used previously by Russia, such as cyber, information and mercenaries, are playing a limited role.

On the other hand, the West, supporting Ukraine, has taken up a few new means of hybrid warfare, such as economic warfare (through sanctions) and diplomatic warfare (using soft power such as sports and culture). Besides the failure of the unconventional means, the intensifying acquisition of arms from allies, by Russia and Ukraine, also emphasizes the impending escalation of kinetic warfare. On Ukraine’s side, ‘America is sending 50 M2A2 Bradley vehicles, part of a new package of military aid worth more than $3bn—the largest yet—including armored personnel carriers, mine-resistant vehicles, Humvees, self-propelled and towed artillery, and a large quantity of missiles and other ammunition. Germany has promised 40 Marder vehicles (and perhaps eventually its entire fleet). France is supplying an undisclosed but probably similar number of amx-10rcs’(the Economist). Though sources on Russia’s procurement of weapons from other countries are unclear, the US has said it believes China may be about to provide lethal aid to help Russia in the war in Ukraine, and previous procurements from Iran and reportedly, North Korea.

Conclusion
Therefore, from the above arguments, though it is evident that hybrid warfare of Russia has not been as successful as it was in 2014, in leading the war solely by itselves, it however, is playing a complimentary role, by taking forward the strategy on land through other means. For example, drone warfare has seen a heightened use in this war. Similarly, attacks on energy grids, though not successful in affecting the morale of Ukrainians, are leaving Ukraine in a stark electricity deficit and blackouts, and damaging the infrastructure, thus creating economical burden on Ukraine. On the other hand, the West is using sanctions, which, again, though turned out to be ineffective in curtailing Russian invasion further, is however, putting economic pressure on Russia. The use of mercenaries, called Wagner, by Russia has proved to be successful to an extent, as seen in capturing Soledar, a settlement in Bakhmut region. Thus, hybrid warfare is playing a complimentary role, enhancing the effectiveness of kinetic warfare by creating diversions or removing hindrances.


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PM Modi’s Visit to Trinidad and Tobago & Ghana, One big beautiful bill, and Quad Foreign Ministers Meeting
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1744

Chittrothu Vaihali

EU-Canada Summit 2025
What is security and defence partnership all about?
Conflict Weekly
July 2025 | CWA # 1742

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly # 287-88
The 12 Day War and the Congo-Rwanda Peace Deal
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1738

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Thailand and Cambodia
What was the phone call between PM Shinawatra and President of Senate Hun Sen? What is the border dispute between the two? Why has this become an issue?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1735

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025:
Trump making Europe great again
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1734

GP Team

The World This Week #317
NATO Summit 2025 and Russia-Mali bilateral agreements
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1733

Ananya Dinesh

China and the Pacific Islands 
What was the recent China-PIC joint statement about? What it says, and what it means?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1728

M Kejia

G7 Summit 2025:
The Focus on the Middle East and Trade negotiations
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1726

GP Team

The World This Week #316
China-Central Asia Summit in Kazakhstan, and the G7 Summit in Canada
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1725

Brighty Ann Sarah, R Preetha, Santhiya M, Aparna A Nair & M Kejia

Operation Midnight Hammer: US bombs three nuclear sites in Iran
What were the three Iranian nuclear sites that were targeted? What are the B2 Bombers and Bunker Buster Bombs? What do these attacks mean? What Next?
Conflict Weekly
June 2025 | CWA # 1724

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #286
The Spiralling Israel-Iran Crisis, and the Dangerous Hunger Hotspots
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1721

Rizwana Banu S and Santhiya M

Who are the Afrikaners?
Why is Trump interested in the Afrikaner question in South Africa?
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1720

Lekshmi MK

New WMO Report on Arctic Warming
What are the social, economic and environmental implications of Arctic warming
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1719

J Yamini  

China’s EV Surge
What contributes to the rise of BYD
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1717

J Yamini

Gender Violence in Pakistan:
What are the larger issues in the Noor Mukadam case?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1715

Femy Francis

The US-China:
On Tariffs, Rare Earths and Visas
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1713

GP Team

The World This Week #315
The UN Ocean Conference in France and the US-China Meeting in London
CW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1712

R Preetha

The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1705

GP Team

The World This Week #314
Elections in South Korea and Poland I China and the Pacific Island Countries I Bangladesh Election Announcement 2026
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1703

M Kejia 

Sagarmatha Sambaad in Nepal
Kathmandu’s Global Agenda for the Himalayas
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1700

R Preetha

Ethiopia bans the TPLF
What does the TPLF ban mean for the Pretoria agreement? What next for Ethiopia?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1694

Aashish Ganeshan

The US:
Harvard vs Trump Administration
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1691

GP Team

The World This Week #313
China-ASEAN-GCC Summit I President Macron's visit to South East Asia I Trump Vs Harvard
The World This Week
May 2025 | CWA # 1690

GP Team

The World This Week #312
Elections in Romania, Portugal & Poland I UK-EU Summit
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1689

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine
Continuing Russia’s Aerial Attacks, despite exchange of prisoners
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1688

Ayan Datta

Gaza
The Humanitarian Crisis and Israel’s Renewed Offensive
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1685

Aparna A Nair

UK-EU Summit:
First step towards a reset
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1683

Aashish Ganeshan

Elections in Portugal:
The Rise of Chega Party and the Search for Political Stability
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1679

Aashish Ganeshan

US in the Middle Easr
Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1678

Gauri Gupta

China in Latin America
China-CELAC forum: Strengthening ties with Latin America and Caribbean
The World This Week
May 2025 | CWA # 1677

GP Team

The World This Week #310-311
China in Latin America and the Carribbean I Trump's Middle East Visit I Denmark as the new Arctic Chair
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1675

Lekshmi MK

Turkey:
PKK disbands after 40 years of armed insurgency
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1673

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine:
The Discussion in Turkiye and the Elusive Ceasefire
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1671

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

US, Ukraine and Russia:
Air attacks amidst a Minerals deal and Ceasefire Proposals
Global Politics Early Bird
May 2025 | CWA # 1670

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Singapore Elections in 2025:
People’s Action Party (PAP) Wins, Again
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1667

R Preetha and Brighty Ann Sarah

East Asia:
Tough Tariff Negotiations with the US
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1666

Padmashree Anandhan

The US-Ukraine
The mineral deal with the US
Conflict Weekly
May 2025 | CWA # 1665
Conflict Weekly # 280-81
India-Pakistan De-escalation I Ukraine Discussion in Istanbul I The Battle over Port Sudan I Disbanding of PKK in Turkiye I France-Algeria Diplomatic Tensions
Global Politics Early Bird
May 2025 | CWA # 1663

R Preetha

Canada Elections 2025:
What do the results convey? What next for Mark Carney?
Conflict Weekly 250th Issue
October 2024 | CWA # 1480

IPRI Team

This Week in History
July 2024 | CWA # 1413

Ramya B

Global Politics Early Bird
May 2024 | CWA # 1336

Femy Francis

This Week in History
April 2024 | CWA # 1275

Ramya B

NIAS Global Politics Database
March 2024 | CWA # 1251

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
This Week in History
March 2024 | CWA # 1246

Sivasubramanian K

NIAS Global Politics Database
February 2024 | CWA # 1226

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
The World This Week
November 2023 | CWA # 1148

GP Team

The War in Ukraine
October 2023 | CWA # 1091

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri

Issues for Europe
NIAS Pakistan Weekly
October 2023 | CWA # 1087

PR Team

The World This Week
October 2023 | CWA # 1083

GP Team

Conflict Weekly
August 2023 | CWA # 1049

IPRI Team

IPRI Quarterly Forecasts I Triggers, Trends, and Trajectories
July 2023 | CWA # 1012

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar continues to burn
The World This Week
July 2023 | CWA # 1009

GP Team

2022: The World This Year
December 2022 | CWA # 879

Padmashree Anandhan

The Ukraine War
2022: The World This Year
December 2022 | CWA # 872

Sapna Elsa Abraham

Europe: Heatwaves, Wildfires, Droughts, and Ice Melt in Alps
November 2022 | CWA # 838

Rishma Banerjee

Tracing Europe's droughts
NIAS Africa Weekly
March 2022 | CWA # 705

NIAS Africa Team

In Focus: Libya
The World This Week: 150th Issue
December 2021 | CWA # 630

GP Team

Europe in 2021
Pakistan Reader
October 2021 | CWA # 588

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

TLP is back again
NIAS Fortnightly on Science, Technology & International Relations
August 2021 | CWA # 528

STIR Team

Space Tourism
GLOBAL PROTEST MOVEMENTS
September 2020 | CWA # 337

Anju Annie Mammen

The FATF Meeting, February 2020
February 2020 | CWA # 235

Lakshmi V Menon

Science, Technology and International Relations
September 2019 | CWA # 162

Lakshman Chakravarthy N

5G: A Primer
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 71

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 70

Nasima Khatoon

The Maldives
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 69

Harini Madhusudan

India
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 68

Sourina Bej

Bangladesh
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 67

Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer

Afghanistan
United States
July 2018 | CWA # 47

Rahul Arockiaraj

East Asia
June 2018 | CWA # 26

Siddhatti Mehta