The World This Year

CWA # 1180
The World This Year
Myanmar in 2023: Extended Emergency, Political Instability and State-led violence

Alka Bala
31 December 2023
Photo Source: REUTERS/Stringer

Major Developments in 2023
On 27 January 2023, Myanmar's military announced the Political Party Registration Law, which repealed the 2010 legislation. The new law entails strict election criteria, which would crush meaningful party participation in the elections and could sideline the military's opponents. The law bars parties and candidates deemed to have links to individuals or organizations "designated as committing terror acts" or seen as "unlawful". According to the State's media, "parties that want to contest the national election will also need to secure at least 100,000 members within three months of registration and have funds of 100 million Myanmar kyat (USD 45,500)", 100 times more than previously. The money has to be deposited with the state-owned Myanmar Economic Bank.

On 01 February 2023, on its second anniversary of the military coup, the State of Emergency in Myanmar was extended for the third time, postponing the proposed dates for elections and garnering a new round of sanctions from the United States, Canada, Britain, UK and Australia targeting members of the junta and junta-backed entities. On 31 July 2023, the coup leader, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, announced the fourth six-month extension of emergency, citing that polls could not take place amid continued fighting in the Sagaing, Magway, Bago and Tanintharyi regions as well as Karen, Kayah and Chin states. 

During 10-11 May 2023, the 42nd ASEAN summit in Indonesia addressed the escalating military actions in Myanmar. The leaders demanded inclusive discussion, humanitarian relief, and a halt to violence in Myanmar. Indonesia, as the ASEAN Chair, has been engaging all major stakeholders in Myanmar - the military, the National Unity Government, and armed ethnic groups for peace talks while condemning attacks and demanding compliance with the Five Point Consensus plan. These objectives were reiterated at the 43rd ASEAN Summit held in September in Indonesia.

2023 saw an increase in hostilities by Myanmar's military, especially with the increase in airstrikes. According to a report by Burma Affairs and Conflict Study, between October 2022 and June 2023, "as many as 395 air strikes were conducted by the Military Council with the highest number of such air strikes took place in the Sagaing region, second highest in Karen state and the third highest in the Chin state." 

On 27 October 2023, in order to combat the military, the Three Brotherhood Alliance (3BTA), which comprises the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), and the Arakan Army (AA) launched "Operation 1027" in northern Shan State, close to the Myanmar-China border. "Operation 1027" has the support of Myanmar's National Unity Government, as reiterated through their issued statement.

On 12 December, UNODC's latest report stated that Myanmar has overtaken Afghanistan as the world's biggest opium producer. Poor access to markets and state infrastructure, as well as rampant inflation, "appears to have played a significant role in farmers' decisions in late 2022 to cultivate more poppy", the report said.

Major Issues in 2023
First, the shrinking political freedom and civic space in Myanmar. In response to the new Political Party Registration Law, Manny Maung, Myanmar researcher at Human Rights Watch, said, "The junta is creating a system to crush all political opposition and derail any possible return to democratic civilian rule." Myanmar's National Democratic League and other minority parties, Kayah State Democracy and the Kayan National Party, got deregistered as they objected to standing under any election held by the military. However, this means limited democratic party alternatives for the citizens and forces them to vote in favour of military-backed entities when and if the elections are held. The existing electoral system in Myanmar, accompanied by the new law, has questionable credibility regarding holding free and democratic elections. The ongoing fourth extension of the State of emergency grants the military, led by Min Aung Hlaing, extensive control over other organs of the government, which is misused by enacting arbitrary legislation, subverting the legitimacy of the judiciary by appointing judges aligned to the junta's interests. Notably, the fourth emergency extension violates Section 425 of the constitution, allowing only two extensions.

Second, the regional destabilization caused by military-led violence. The military has increased airstrikes and has also targeted civilian populated areas and public infrastructure, such as hospitals and schools, as a measure to counter resistance leading to a rising death toll. The violence has also caused a conflict spillover as refugees flee to neighbouring countries of Thailand from the Eastern Karen State and Into Mizoram from Chin State, also into Yunnan Province of China. 2.3 million population are internally Displaced within Myanmar, whereas 1.35 million are refugees.

Third, the persistent humanitarian crisis, accompanied by the impacts of natural disasters. Cyclone Mocha, which ravaged the northern part of Myanmar, highlighted safety and security challenges for affected communities, indicating an impending food security crisis due to the depleting household reserves and crop damage. The cyclone highlighted an education crisis, as 80 per cent of schools and educational infrastructure was destroyed, along with other persistent threats of sexual violence, lack of sanitation facilities and privacy. UNSC condemned the Myanmar military over the conditions in Myanmar with more than 18 million people in Myanmar in need of humanitarian assistance, two million had been forced from their homes, and some 15 million people were "food insecure". The repatriation of 6000 Rohingyas refugees from Bangladesh faced a roadblock as the delegates were unhappy over the poor arrangements of facilities as per the Rakhine State Resettlement Plan and the lack of clarity over the provision of citizenship for Rohingyas.

Fourth, sanctions on Myanmar and their ineffectiveness. The United States has imposed nearly 20 rounds of sanctions on Myanmar, along with the UK and European Union (six rounds of sanctions) and Canada and Australia, targeting multiple military leaders, business enterprises owned and associated by them, and state-owned enterprises, while also targeting suppliers of aviation fuel. Myanmar's military has a lengthy history of surviving sanctions, and in the two years since the imposition, their stance has not changed, and instances of brutality have escalated. Myanmar enjoys diplomatic support from China and Russia, from China in the form of increased investments, economic partnerships and support. At the same time, Russia has promised military and tactical support by providing military equipment and aircraft.

Fifth, a divided ASEAN on its actions on Myanmar. The ASEAN stands to lose its value as an effective international forum over its lack of consensus and inaction on Myanmar. An example of this loss of centrality is the announcement of Timor Leste rethinking its plans to join ASEAN, citing the body's failure to "convince the military junta to [end the violence]." The Philippines is scheduled to assume the chair in 2026 in place of Myanmar after ASEAN decided to suspend Myanmar's rotating chair function. Nevertheless, this move is insufficient, and significant action is needed to address the lack of progress. ASEAN's announced troika mechanism - an arrangement between outgoing chair Indonesia, future chair Malaysia and incoming chair Laos to work collectively to identify a solution, including all relevant stakeholders from Myanmar, seems promising.

2024: Looking Ahead
First, the future of sanctions. A shift in focus from formal sanctions to steps taken by private sector actors might prove more effective. Since the coup, many international companies have withdrawn from Myanmar — notably Japan's Kirin beverage conglomerate and energy multinationals such as Woodside, Chevron and Total. The lack of activities of foreign energy corporations may have a greater effect on Myanmar's export earnings and internal economy. Despite acknowledged limitations, the United States, Europe, and like-minded nations will continue with the sanctions, as the goal is to reduce and prevent the junta from obtaining revenue or resources, progressively undermining the military and supporting resistance groups.

Second, the role of international players. India and Thailand are likely to realign their pro-junta stance, which is viewed through the close cooperation in economic projects; such interactions and maintaining relations would be seen as protecting their interests. However, given the conflict spillover and the refugee influx into both these countries, while considering the violence in Manipur in North East India, it is plausible that the present relations will transform to address national and security concerns. ASEAN will have to make evident progress in realizing the Five Point Consensus into a reality to regain its centrality as a regional forum for deliberation and conflict resolution. Providing humanitarian assistance and cross-border aid is the most realistically achievable goal by ASEAN in coordination with UN agencies, as most ASEAN nations share borders with Myanmar. It is imperative to reduce the flow of arms into Myanmar to curb Military violence. Hence, western countries can coordinate and place an arms embargo.

Third, tactical attempts to maintain the junta's control. Chinese and Russian Support immunizes the junta to withstand international sanctions and criticisms coupled with weak regional response acts as a catalyst for civilian strife. The elections might occur in October 2024 or early 2025, after a national census, according to the junta. However, the credibility of such an election is to be reevaluated. The junta also tends to pose "elections" as a card to obtain validation and support in ASEAN to a certain extent. It can attempt to gain some section of public opinion through certain democratic and administrative reforms but maintain political control. An attempt in this direction was the reduction of the imprisonment sentence of Aung San Suu Kyi and U win Myint's ( the former president) sentence by four years while also allowing Aung San Suu Kyi to meet with Thailand's foreign minister and Deputy Prime Minister, which was considered as a positive development. In the future, the junta can also use the divided opinion among the Buddhist monks to propagate their form of government and manipulate public opinion.

Fourth, the future of the Resistance as it vows 'Beginning of the End for the military'. The junta's territorial control only extends to half of the country. The ethnic revolutionary organizations and resistance groups are gaining ground and are either in direct conflict with junta troops or are providing assistance to the People's Defense Forces. Resistance forces hold an upper hand over the demoralized and demotivated Junta troops owing to the public hostility and persistent corruption within the military. However, resistance solely through Operation 1027 will not bring realistic and lasting change. The National Unity Government will have to shift its policy and focus through achievable goals of diplomacy, even start a meaningful dialogue with the junta and approach potential partners, especially Myanmar's neighbours. ASEAN member states have opportunities for public and covert interaction and assistance. The level of support would be based on the extent of vested interests in Myanmar and their national interests.

Ultimately, the future of the situation in Myanmar in 2024 and resolutions to the crises faced will come from a changed perspective of all the domestic actors involved and from international players.

About the author
Alka Bala is an undergraduate student at the Department of International Relations, Peace and Public Policy, St Joseph's University.

About the author

Alka Bala is an undergraduate student at the Department of International Relations, Peace and Public Policy, St Joseph's University.


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NATO Summit 2025
State of Global Politics 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1914

Preetha Renganarayanan

State of Global Politics 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1913

Rohini Reenum

State of Global Politics 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1912

Lekshmi MK

State of Global Politics 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1911

Swati Sood

State of Global Politics 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1905

Femy Francis

State of Peace and Conflict 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1902

Brighty Ann Sarah

State of Peace and Conflict 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1893

Lekshmi MK

State of Peace and Conflict 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1889

Femy Francis

State of Peace and Conflict 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1881

Sunidhi Sampige

China Reader
December 2025 | CWA # 1864

Femy Francis

Ten Takeaways of a SCMP Interview with a former PLA Colonel
TWTW Note
December 2025 | CWA # 1861

Femy Francis

China Reader
CW Column: The Conflicts in The Middle East
November 2025 | CWA # 1859

Brighty Ann Sarah

CW Column: The War in Ukraine
November 2025 | CWA # 1858

Padmashree Anandhan

This Week in History
August 2025 | CWA # 1801

R Preetha

28 August 1963
Martin Luther King's "I Have a Dream" speech and the Civil Rights Movement in the US
The World This Week
August 2025 | CWA # 1790

GP Team

The World This Week#323-324
The Trump-Putin meeting & the US-China tariff extension
TWTW note
August 2025 | CWA # 1780

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

Trump tariffs:
Weaponization of access to the US economy
The World This Week
August 2025 | CWA # 1779

GP Team

The World This Week#322
US tariffs on India, Brazil and Canada & the EU-US trade deal
This Week in History
August 2025 | CWA # 1778

Lekshmi MK

28 July 1914
Austria-Hungary declares war on Serbia, starting the First World War
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1770

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

Pakistan-Afghanistan relations:
Why the focus on terrorism, refugees, and Uzbekistan as the third partner?
The World This Week
July 2025 | CWA # 1769

GP Team

The World This Week#321
Indian PM Modi's visit to the Maldives I Elections to the Upper House in Japan
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1762

Lekshmi MK

Ocean Darkening: 
What is the phenomenon? What are its effects? And who are more vulnerable?
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1749

R Preetha

Africa as the Hunger Epicenter
Of the 13 Global Hunger Hotspots, 8 are in Africa: Five reasons why
The World This Week
July 2025 | CWA # 1748

GP Team

The World This Week #318
PM Modi’s Visit to Trinidad and Tobago & Ghana, One big beautiful bill, and Quad Foreign Ministers Meeting
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1744

Chittrothu Vaihali

EU-Canada Summit 2025
What is security and defence partnership all about?
Conflict Weekly
July 2025 | CWA # 1742

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly # 287-88
The 12 Day War and the Congo-Rwanda Peace Deal
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1738

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Thailand and Cambodia
What was the phone call between PM Shinawatra and President of Senate Hun Sen? What is the border dispute between the two? Why has this become an issue?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1735

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025:
Trump making Europe great again
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1734

GP Team

The World This Week #317
NATO Summit 2025 and Russia-Mali bilateral agreements
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1733

Ananya Dinesh

China and the Pacific Islands 
What was the recent China-PIC joint statement about? What it says, and what it means?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1728

M Kejia

G7 Summit 2025:
The Focus on the Middle East and Trade negotiations
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1726

GP Team

The World This Week #316
China-Central Asia Summit in Kazakhstan, and the G7 Summit in Canada
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1725

Brighty Ann Sarah, R Preetha, Santhiya M, Aparna A Nair & M Kejia

Operation Midnight Hammer: US bombs three nuclear sites in Iran
What were the three Iranian nuclear sites that were targeted? What are the B2 Bombers and Bunker Buster Bombs? What do these attacks mean? What Next?
Conflict Weekly
June 2025 | CWA # 1724

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #286
The Spiralling Israel-Iran Crisis, and the Dangerous Hunger Hotspots
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1721

Rizwana Banu S and Santhiya M

Who are the Afrikaners?
Why is Trump interested in the Afrikaner question in South Africa?
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1720

Lekshmi MK

New WMO Report on Arctic Warming
What are the social, economic and environmental implications of Arctic warming
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1719

J Yamini  

China’s EV Surge
What contributes to the rise of BYD
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1717

J Yamini

Gender Violence in Pakistan:
What are the larger issues in the Noor Mukadam case?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1715

Femy Francis

The US-China:
On Tariffs, Rare Earths and Visas
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1713

GP Team

The World This Week #315
The UN Ocean Conference in France and the US-China Meeting in London
CW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1712

R Preetha

The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1705

GP Team

The World This Week #314
Elections in South Korea and Poland I China and the Pacific Island Countries I Bangladesh Election Announcement 2026
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1703

M Kejia 

Sagarmatha Sambaad in Nepal
Kathmandu’s Global Agenda for the Himalayas
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1700

R Preetha

Ethiopia bans the TPLF
What does the TPLF ban mean for the Pretoria agreement? What next for Ethiopia?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1694

Aashish Ganeshan

The US:
Harvard vs Trump Administration
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1691

GP Team

The World This Week #313
China-ASEAN-GCC Summit I President Macron's visit to South East Asia I Trump Vs Harvard
The World This Week
May 2025 | CWA # 1690

GP Team

The World This Week #312
Elections in Romania, Portugal & Poland I UK-EU Summit
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1689

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine
Continuing Russia’s Aerial Attacks, despite exchange of prisoners
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1688

Ayan Datta

Gaza
The Humanitarian Crisis and Israel’s Renewed Offensive
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1685

Aparna A Nair

UK-EU Summit:
First step towards a reset
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1683

Aashish Ganeshan

Elections in Portugal:
The Rise of Chega Party and the Search for Political Stability
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1679

Aashish Ganeshan

US in the Middle Easr
Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1678

Gauri Gupta

China in Latin America
China-CELAC forum: Strengthening ties with Latin America and Caribbean
The World This Week
May 2025 | CWA # 1677

GP Team

The World This Week #310-311
China in Latin America and the Carribbean I Trump's Middle East Visit I Denmark as the new Arctic Chair
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1675

Lekshmi MK

Turkey:
PKK disbands after 40 years of armed insurgency
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1673

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine:
The Discussion in Turkiye and the Elusive Ceasefire
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1671

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

US, Ukraine and Russia:
Air attacks amidst a Minerals deal and Ceasefire Proposals
Global Politics Early Bird
May 2025 | CWA # 1670

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Singapore Elections in 2025:
People’s Action Party (PAP) Wins, Again
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1667

R Preetha and Brighty Ann Sarah

East Asia:
Tough Tariff Negotiations with the US
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1666

Padmashree Anandhan

The US-Ukraine
The mineral deal with the US
Conflict Weekly
May 2025 | CWA # 1665
Conflict Weekly # 280-81
India-Pakistan De-escalation I Ukraine Discussion in Istanbul I The Battle over Port Sudan I Disbanding of PKK in Turkiye I France-Algeria Diplomatic Tensions
Global Politics Early Bird
May 2025 | CWA # 1663

R Preetha

Canada Elections 2025:
What do the results convey? What next for Mark Carney?
Conflict Weekly 250th Issue
October 2024 | CWA # 1480

IPRI Team

This Week in History
July 2024 | CWA # 1413

Ramya B

Global Politics Early Bird
May 2024 | CWA # 1336

Femy Francis

This Week in History
April 2024 | CWA # 1275

Ramya B

NIAS Global Politics Database
March 2024 | CWA # 1251

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
This Week in History
March 2024 | CWA # 1246

Sivasubramanian K

NIAS Global Politics Database
February 2024 | CWA # 1226

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
The World This Week
November 2023 | CWA # 1148

GP Team

The War in Ukraine
October 2023 | CWA # 1091

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri

Issues for Europe
NIAS Pakistan Weekly
October 2023 | CWA # 1087

PR Team

The World This Week
October 2023 | CWA # 1083

GP Team

Conflict Weekly
August 2023 | CWA # 1049

IPRI Team

IPRI Quarterly Forecasts I Triggers, Trends, and Trajectories
July 2023 | CWA # 1012

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar continues to burn
The World This Week
July 2023 | CWA # 1009

GP Team

2022: The World This Year
December 2022 | CWA # 879

Padmashree Anandhan

The Ukraine War
2022: The World This Year
December 2022 | CWA # 872

Sapna Elsa Abraham

Europe: Heatwaves, Wildfires, Droughts, and Ice Melt in Alps
November 2022 | CWA # 838

Rishma Banerjee

Tracing Europe's droughts
NIAS Africa Weekly
March 2022 | CWA # 705

NIAS Africa Team

In Focus: Libya
The World This Week: 150th Issue
December 2021 | CWA # 630

GP Team

Europe in 2021
Pakistan Reader
October 2021 | CWA # 588

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

TLP is back again
NIAS Fortnightly on Science, Technology & International Relations
August 2021 | CWA # 528

STIR Team

Space Tourism
GLOBAL PROTEST MOVEMENTS
September 2020 | CWA # 337

Anju Annie Mammen

The FATF Meeting, February 2020
February 2020 | CWA # 235

Lakshmi V Menon

Science, Technology and International Relations
September 2019 | CWA # 162

Lakshman Chakravarthy N

5G: A Primer
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 71

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 70

Nasima Khatoon

The Maldives
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 69

Harini Madhusudan

India
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 68

Sourina Bej

Bangladesh
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 67

Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer

Afghanistan
United States
July 2018 | CWA # 47

Rahul Arockiaraj

East Asia
June 2018 | CWA # 26

Siddhatti Mehta