Why Israel is NOT facing a strategic defeat in Gaza: A Response to Stanly Johny

CWA # 1382

NIAS Global Politics

Why Israel is NOT facing a strategic defeat in Gaza: A Response to Stanly Johny

Ayan Datta
13 July 2024

Photo Source: AFP

On 2 July 2024, Dr Stanly Johny, International Affairs Editor at The Hindu, published an opinion titled “Israel is facing a strategic defeat in Gaza.”

Dr Johny’s argument is that Israel’s threats have multiplied and intensified since launching its war against Hamas. His assessment is partly accurate, however, overestimates the intensity and long-term implications of the threats. While Israel faced a complex security environment after 7 October, the Jewish State made significant progress in managing those threats. Similarly, Dr Johny overestimates the intensity of the Iran threat and fails to acknowledge Israel’s gains and adaptability. Israel has operated in a multi-threat environment since its inception and is resilient.

The Stanly Johny Argument on Israel’s Strategic Defeat
Dr Johny argues that Israel’s military campaign in Gaza failed to achieve its war aims. He emphasises that Israel’s leadership miscalculated its abilities to destroy Hamas swiftly, underestimated Iran’s response to Israel’s assassinations of its Generals, and damaged Israel’s global standing and long-term interests.

On Israel’s failure to achieve war aims
Dr Johny argues that Israel wanted a quick and decisive victory. According to him, Israel’s war aims include the following: defeating the Al-Qassam brigades and another fight, destroying Hamas’ tunnel networks and killing its top leadership. Did Israel’s leaders promise a swift victory? On 8 October, Prime Minister Netanyahu explicitly stated that it would be a “long and difficult” war. His Minister of Defence, Yoav Gallant, reiterated the government’s position on 28 October, stressing to US President Joe Biden that Israel would need US support because of the anticipated long duration and complexity of the conflict.

Will Israel be able to eliminate Hamas completely? The IDF’s destruction of Gaza’s civilian infrastructure radicalised ordinary Gazans, making them pliable for recruitment by the armed group. According to the Foundation for the Defence of Democracies, the average Hamas company contains around 200 people, making it easy for the armed group to replace lost foot soldiers. However, Israel’s progress towards its war aims, even if incomplete, is significant. After eight months, the IDF has made gains; thus far, it has eliminated Hamas’ third and fourth-highest-ranking leaders, Marwan Issa and Saleh Al-Arouri. It destroyed 20 to 40 per cent of Hamas’ tunnels by January, including 85 per cent in Rafah. Israel has dismantled 20 out of 24 Hamas battalions, which will require substantial time to reconstitute. Importantly, the IDF forced Hamas to launch hit-run tactics, destroying their ability to launch another 7 October-scale attack. Furthermore, rocket fire from Gaza has decreased drastically. For Israel, it is not a complete loss and certainly not a strategic defeat in fighting the Hamas.

On the Iran nuclear threat
On Tehran, has Israel “miscalculated Iran’s response” and “weakened” Israel’s deterrence ? The assassinations of Iranian generals, including Mohammed Reza Zahedi of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)? has led to Iran’s drone and missile “barrage” against the Jewish State on 14 April.

Israel did underestimate Iran’s response to the Damascus strike. A report by the New York Times revealed that senior IDF staff estimated that Iran would only respond with small-scale attacks. However, Iran’s attack on Israel was not a demonstration of its defensive capabilities nor an attempt at establishing deterrence against Israel. Iran’s barrage included 170 Shahed drones, which are slow-moving (maximum speed: 115 miles per hour) and, therefore, vulnerable to air defences. The attack took nine hours to unfold, giving the IDF ample time to prepare. Iran did not use its more powerful weapons, including the Sejil and Kheiber drones. The attack was more likely designed by Iran to placate its domestic audience, including the rest of the IRGC leadership, following the death of the generals, and to collect intelligence on how Israel’s air defence capabilities behave during multi-front conflicts. An Israeli rocket launched by Israel after Iran’s barrage landed near the latter’s Natanz nuclear site, with no counter-response from Iran.

Has Iran’s attack successfully deterred Israel from further assassinations? On 4 June, two months after Iran’s supposedly deterrence-inducing attack, an IDF airstrike killed an Iranian military advisor who was an IRGC member in Syria’s Aleppo. Israel also promised to respond to the barrage with a larger attack and fired a missile that landed near Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility, questioning Tehran’s effectiveness in deterring Israel.

On the Arab-Israeli normalisation process
Is Israel facing a strategic defeat vis-à-vis normalisation with the Arab states? In 2023, when normalisation talks were at an advanced level, Israel was already occupying Gaza and destroying its infrastructure. In 2022, 65 per cent of Gazans were dependent on food aid from humanitarian groups because of the Israeli blockade of the strip. The same year, the IDF conducted an airstrike campaign in the strip called Operation Breaking Dawn, injuring around 300 civilians in two days. Between the end of the second Intifada in 2005 and 2023 (before 7 October), Israeli forces killed around 6000 Palestinians. None of these actions by the Israelis deterred Saudi Arabia from attempting a normalisation with the Jewish state in 2020 and signing the Abraham Accords. Moreover, during Tehran’s missile and drone attacks, Riyadh reiterated its strategic alignment by sharing intelligence with Washington and Jerusalem.

Saudi Arabia’s past behaviour indicates that its demand for a Palestinian State before normalisation is more about international optics than genuine sympathy for the Palestinian cause. The following are Riyadh’s actual conditions for normalisation: sufficient US pressure on its leadership, a lower intensity of conflict in Gaza so that the conflict fades from the world media headlines, and increased US commitment to contain Iran. Realpolitik and the regional balance of power are the crucial determinants of Saudi foreign policy, not sentimental and ideological attachment to Palestine. If the right geopolitical conditions align, Riyadh would be once again willing to normalise with the Jewish State without changes to the status of Gaza or Palestine.

On Netanyahu’s endgames
Does the Israeli PM lack a clear endgame? Whether he will achieve it or not, he seems to have one for Gaza and Hamas. His plan, as obtained by CNN, included Israeli security control over both Palestinian territories, the demilitarisation of the Gaza Strip and closing its border with Egypt, and overhauling Gaza’s educational systems to combat radicalisation. However, we must concede that the plan is controversial and unworkable. Hamas enjoys substantial support among Gazans, and Israeli attempts to exert security and educational control will likely face fierce resistance. Netanyahu proposed a level of control and transformation that would be unachievable in Gaza.

About the Author
Ayan Datta is a Research Intern at NIAS. He is a Master's Student at the University of Hyderabad, Department of Political Science. At NIAS, he covers Middle Eastern affairs and is affiliated with the Africa Monitor, Conflict Weekly and The World This Week programmes. His research interests include security studies and conflicts in the Middle East.

The World This Week

September 2026 | CWA # 2267

NIAS Global Politics Team

The SCO Summit in Bishkek:

The US-Venezuela Oil Agreement

TWTW Note

September 2026 | CWA # 2266

Nithin V

The US-Venezuela Oil Agreement:

Realignments and Energy geopolitics

TWTW Profile

September 2026 | CWA # 2265

Sreemaya Nair

The SCO Summit 2026:

Who said what

TWTW Takeaways

September 2026 | CWA # 2264

Sreemaya Nair

The SCO Summit in Bishkek:

Four takeaways on rejecting sanctions on Iran, de-dollarisation, and emphasis on territorial integrity

Conflict Weekly

September 2026 | CWA # 2263

NIAS Global Politics Team

The US-Iran War Week 26 I The Trial of Joshua Wong

The State of Food Security and Nutrition

CW Newsmakers

September 2026 | CWA # 2262

Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella, Namrata L Ghanghatkar, Priyanka Makhijani and Urja R Kudalkar

Drone attacks in Germany | Settler violence in Palestine

Somali Piracy | DR Congo's Ebola crisis | Attempted coup in Niger

CW Takeaways

September 2026 | CWA # 2261

Akshath Kaimal

Africa's State of Food Security and Nutrition:

Five takeaways on Food insecurity, Geographic disparities and Diet affordability

CW Takeaways

September 2026 | CWA # 2260

Yesasvi Koganti

The State of Food Security and Nutrition:

Six takeaways of the WHO 2026 Report on rising food insecurity and the affordability crisis

CW Explainer

September 2026 | CWA # 2259

Aparna A Nair

The Trial of Joshua Wong:

What are the charges? Why did he plead guilty now?

CW Note

September 2026 | CWA # 2258

Brighty Ann Sarah

The US-Iran War Week 26:

Renewed Escalation and Diplomatic Deadlock

TWTW Newsmakers

August 2026 | CWA # 2256

Namrata L Ghanghatkar, Priyanka Makhijani and Urja R Kudalkar

Lake Ontario

SpaceX hits triple digits:

Global Politics Explainer

August 2026 | CWA # 2255

Priyanka Makhijani

China's First Land-Based Rocket Recovery:

What made the Zhuque-3's landing successful? How do Zhuque-3 and Falcon 9 stack up?

Global Politics Explainer

August 2026 | CWA # 2254

Namrata L Ghanghatkar

The US-Canada tariff tensions:

How did the trade deal end up stuck in limbo?

TWTW Note

August 2026 | CWA # 2253

Akshath Kaimal

The case against Meta:

A historic settlement, global action against social media platforms and implementation challenges

Global Politics Explainer

August 2026 | CWA # 2252

Namrata L Ghanghatkar

The US and North Korea:

A brief history, Trump-Kim Summits and the new gamble

Global Politics Profile

August 2026 | CWA # 2251

Adwaith Sankar

Kim Jong Un:

Internal Consolidation and External Realignment

Conflict Weekly

August 2026 | CWA # 2250

NIAS Global Politics Team

Catastrophic Floods in Nepal

Japan's Yasukuni Shrine Controversy

CW Newsmakers

August 2026 | CWA # 2249

Namrata L Ghanghatkar, Priyanka Makhijani and Urja R Kudalkar

General Ratko Mladic I Kidnapping in Nigeria I Wildfires in North Africa

CW Newsmakers

August 2026 | CWA # 2236

CW Newsmakers

Sheikh Hasina, Settler Violence in West Bank, Heat Waves in Northeast Asia...

The World This Quarter

August 2026 | CWA # 2235

Adwaith Sankar

Southeast Asia (April-June 2026)

Economic headwinds, Internal friction, and Contrasting domestic developments

The World This Quarter

August 2026 | CWA # 2234

Lakshmi Karlekar�

China's External Landscape (Apr-Jun 2026):

Trump-Xi Summit, Pressure on Taiwan and Managing the US-Iran War

The World This Quarter

August 2026 | CWA # 2233

Teshu Singh

East Asia (Apr-Jun 2026):

Strategic Rebalancing, Neo-Militarisation and Increasing Tensions in Taiwan Straits

The World This Quarter

August 2026 | CWA # 2232

Dattesh D Parulekar�

Latin America (Apr-Jun 2026):

The 'Right' Electoral Tilt, Upswing in Venezuela-India relations, and Argentina's Energy Rise

Global Politics Explainer

August 2026 | CWA # 2231

Dhivya KM

China's economy at mid-2026:

Six Takeaways of the World Bank China Economic Update

Global Politics Explainer

August 2026 | CWA # 2230

Acsah H

China's World Artificial Intelligence Conference:

Who participated, and what happened at the WAIC 2026? What was Beijing's endgame? What does it mean for the US?

Global Politics Explainer

August 2026 | CWA # 2229

Adwaith Sankar

India, Indonesia and PM Modi's Visit:

What is the primary focus, and what is new

Global Politics Explainer

August 2026 | CWA # 2228

Namrata L Ghanghatkar

Nepal, Climate disasters and Gender:

How Nepal's disaster response has left its gender minorities behind

Global Politics Explainer

August 2026 | CWA # 2227

Dhivya KM

The IMF in Sri Lanka: Debt, Dependence, and Dissent

Four major takeaways on IMF conditionalities, public discontent, the social cost of adjustment, governance reforms and debt restructuring

Global Politics Explainer

August 2026 | CWA # 2226

Nithin V

Colombia's ban on Female Genital Mutilation:

What is the new legislation? What are the challenges? And what are the implications?

Global Politics Explainer

August 2026 | CWA # 2225

Acsah H

China's C909:

China moves from near-total reliance on foreign jets to domestic dominance. How did it happen? And what does it mean?

The World This Week

August 2026 | CWA # 2224

Global Politics Team

Zelenskyy's US visit

Newsmakers of the week

TWTW Note

August 2026 | CWA # 2223

Yesasvi Koganti

President Zelenskyy's visit to the US:

Strengthening defence cooperation

TWTW Newsmakers

August 2026 | CWA # 2222

Namrata L Ghanghatkar, Priyanka Makhijani and Urja R Kudalkar

Peru's new President Netanyahu's Washington visit

US Senate bill against Russia | Ukraine and Patriot missiles | China's PLA 99th anniversary

PR Commentary

July 2026 | CWA # 2221

Aarav Bhaskar

Pakistan's Compounding Water Crisis:

Environmental, Demographic, Economic and Structural stresses

PR Commentary

July 2026 | CWA # 2220

Dhivya KM

Pakistan's Federal Budget FY2026-27:

Five takeaways on Consolidation, Growth and Structural Reforms

PR Commentary

July 2026 | CWA # 2219

Vani Vyshnavi Jupudi

Pakistan Economic Survey 2025-26: Six Takeaways

Growth and Turnaround, but not much

Conflict Weekly

July 2026 | CWA # 2218

Global Politics Team

The US-Iran War, Week 22 I Heatwaves and Wildfires in Spain and France

Ebola expansion in Africa I Profile: Houthis

CW Newsmakers

July 2026 | CWA # 2217

Namrata L Ghanghatkar, Priyanka Makhijani, Urja R Kudalkar

The Berlin Pride attack

Zelensky's US Visit I Japan's Earthquake

CW Profile

July 2026 | CWA # 2216

Manikranth Chakravarthula

The Houthis:

Origins, Ethnic makeup, Political structure, Geographical footprint and External support

CW Note

July 2026 | CWA # 2215

Lekshmi MK

Heatwaves and Wildfires in Spain and France:

Capacity gaps and Resource constraints amidst Recurring extreme weather

CW Note

July 2026 | CWA # 2214

Akshath Kaimal

Ebola expansion in the Democratic Republic of Congo:

Healthcare worker strikes amidst Misinformation, Climate disaster and Humanitarian crisis

CW Note

July 2026 | CWA # 2213

Brighty Ann Sarah

The US-Iran War, Week 22:

End of pause, Return of hostilities and Expanding conflict geography

The World This Week

July 2026 | CWA # 2212

NIAS Global Politics Team

The US-Saudi Arabia Nuclear Cooperation Agreement I AI's Rogue Agent Breach

Return of US-Canada Tariff Tensions I 33rd ASEAN Regional Forum

TWTW Note

July 2026 | CWA # 2211

Priyanka Makhijani

AI's Rogue Agent Breach:

Recurring Patterns, Gaps in the AI safety rules and the AI rivalry

TWTW Takeaways

July 2026 | CWA # 2210

Adwaith Sankar

ASEAN Regional Forum:

Six Takeaways on Issues, Limitations and Opportunities

TWTW Note

July 2026 | CWA # 2209

Namrata L Ghanghatkar

The return of US-Canada Tariff Tensions:

Retaliation and Legal setbacks

TWTW Note

July 2026 | CWA # 2208

Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella

The US-Saudi Arabia Nuclear Cooperation Agreement:

Questions over the agreement's terms, the Abraham Accords condition, and Non-proliferation concerns

Conflict Weekly

July 2026 | CWA # 2207

Global Politics Team

US-Iran War, Week 21 I Houthi's Saudi Arabia target in the Red Sea

Return of South China Sea tensions I Resurgence of Somali piracy

CW Note

July 2026 | CWA # 2206

Akshath Kaimal

The resurgence of Somali piracy:

Sophisticated tactics, Regional instability and an Ineffective international response

CW Note

July 2026 | CWA # 2205

Aparna A Nair

China, the Philippines, and the return of South China Sea tensions:

Accusations, Arbitrations and Ambiguities

CW Note

July 2026 | CWA # 2204

Brighty Ann Sarah

The Houthis target Saudi Arabia:

A new front in the US-Iran War

CW Note

July 2026 | CWA # 2203

Brighty Ann Sarah

US-Iran War, Week 21:

Resumption of attacks and the Strait of Hormuz impasse

The World This Week

July 2026 | CWA # 2202

Special Issue

Special Issue: The World This Quarter (Apr-Jun 2026)

From China to the US

TWTW Note

July 2026 | CWA # 2201

Akshath Kaimal

Ten Years and Seven Prime Ministers in the UK:

Inside the Fall of Keir Starmer and Political Instability

Conflict Weekly

July 2026 | CWA # 2200

NIAS Global Politics Team

The US-Iran War I UNCLOS and the South China Sea Award

Review of the UN SDG Report 2026

CW Review

July 2026 | CWA # 2199

Preetha Renganarayanan

The SDG Annual Report 2026:

Six takeaways on a decade of SDG monitoring, global progress, and key challenges

CW Note

July 2026 | CWA # 2198

Aparna A Nair

UNCLOS and the South China Sea Arbitral Award:

Ten Years Later

CW Note

July 2026 | CWA # 2197

Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella

The US-Iran War, Week 20:

Renewed Strikes, Collapsed MoU and the Blockade of the Strait

The World This Quarter

July 2026 | CWA # 2196

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal (Apr-Jun 2026):

New Government, Political Stability and Economic Recovery

GP Takeaways

July 2026 | CWA # 2195

Radhika M Agarwal

PR Review

June 2026 | CWA # 2194

Vani Vyshnavi Jupudi

Pakistan's macroeconomic performance in the second quarter

Growth, Fiscal Consolidation, and the Middle East war risk

PR Commentary

June 2026 | CWA # 2193

Aparna A Nair

Pakistan PMin China:

75th anniversary of diplomatic relations, CPEC expansion and Middle East mediation

PR Review

June 2026 | CWA # 2192

Lekshmi MK

Climate Change and Pakistan's Economic Faultlines:

Six takeaways on inadequate climate finance, spillover effects, and low climate prioritisation

PR Review

June 2026 | CWA # 2191

Dhivya KM

Pakistan's Economy in the Second Quarter:

Five Takeaways from the SBP Half Year Report on GDP growth, target-range inflation, and fiscal surplus

The World This Week

July 2026 | CWA # 2190

NIAS Global Politics Team

China-DPRK friendship treaty I The IMF World Economic Outlook

TWTW Review

July 2026 | CWA # 2189

Dhivya KM

Five takeaways on Global growth, AI, and Economic resilience

TWTW Note

July 2026 | CWA # 2188

Adwaith Sankar

65 years of the China-DPRK friendship treaty:

Reopening links, Russia factor, and Nuclear compromise

TWTW Note

July 2026 | CWA # 2187

Avaneesh S

China's SLBM test in the Pacific:

Modernization, Increasing deterrence and Strategic messaging

TWTW Note

July 2026 | CWA # 2186

Lekshmi MK

NATO Summit 2026:

Four takeaways on Alliance unity, Defence commitments, and Support for Ukraine

Conflict Weekly

July 2026 | CWA # 2185

Global Politics Team

Iran after Ali Khamenei I The War in Ukraine

CW Review

July 2026 | CWA # 2184

Deb Dutta

Four takeaways on Forced returns, Collapsing protection, Protracted crises

CW Note

July 2026 | CWA # 2183

Preetha Renganarayanan

Europe's expanding and intensifying heatwaves:

CW Column

July 2026 | CWA # 2182

Anu Maria Joseph

Africa This Week

JNIM-FLA coordinated attacks in Mali and the RSF siege in Sudan

CW Note

July 2026 | CWA # 2181

Padmashree Anandhan

The War in Ukraine:

Deep strikes, NATO diplomacy and the Expanding air warfare

CW Note

July 2026 | CWA # 2180

Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella

Iran after Ali Khamenei

Institutional resilience, Anti-American sentiment and an Unresolved conflict

GP Explainer

July 2026 | CWA # 2179

Avaneesh S

The "Power of Siberia 2" pipeline:

Russia's endgame and China's calculus

The World This Week

July 2026 | CWA # 2178

CW Note

July 2026 | CWA # 2171

Radhika M Agarwal

Anand V

China's Domestic Landscape (April-June 2026):

Reforms, Regulations, Reinvention and Risk Management

Conflict Weekly

June 2026 | CWA # 2161

NIAS Global Politics Team

Africa's Conference on Slavery

The US-Iran MoU I Ukraine's Crimea Campaign

CW Note

June 2026 | CWA # 2160

Radhika M Agarwal

The War in Ukraine:

Ukraine's Crimea Campaign, The Belarus Standoff, and Russia's Aerial Bombardment

CW Note

June 2026 | CWA # 2159

Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella

The US-Iran MoU

Renewed strikes, Persistent disagreements, and a Fragile Agreement

CW Column: Africa This Week

June 2026 | CWA # 2158

Anu Maria Joseph

The World This Week

June 2026 | CWA # 2157

Global Politics Team

The G7 Summit 2026

TWTW Note

June 2026 | CWA # 2156

Avaneesh S

President Xi Jinping's North Korea visit:

TWTW Note

June 2026 | CWA # 2155

Aparna A Nair

Myanmar President's China visit:

Diplomatic legitimacy, Economic cooperation and Beijing's interests

TWTW Takeaways

June 2026 | CWA # 2154

Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella

The G7 Summit 2026

Four Takeaways on Economic security, Critical minerals, and Consensus on Ukraine and Iran

Conflict Weekly

June 2026 | CWA # 2153

Global Politics Team

The US-Iran MoU

The War in Ukraine I Anti-immigrant violence in South Africa I Ultra Orthodox Jews' protests in Israel

CW Note

June 2026 | CWA # 2152

Akshath Kaimal

Anti-immigrant violence in South Africa:

Xenophobic attacks, Economic distress, and an Aggressive crackdown

CW Note

June 2026 | CWA # 2151

Rohini Reenum

Israel's Ultra-Orthodox Jews:

Why are they protesting?

CW Note

June 2026 | CWA # 2150

Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella

The War in Ukraine:

Massive drone attacks, Europe's support for Ukraine, and a Distant ceasefire

CW Note

June 2026 | CWA # 2149

Brighty Ann Sarah

The US-Iran MoU:

Asymmetric Gains and Implementation Challenges

Remembering Amb PS Raghavan and his legacy

June 2026 | CWA # 2148

Akshath Kaimal

The Making of India's Foreign Policy:

Major pillars and their critiques

Remembering Amb PS Raghavan and his legacy

June 2026 | CWA # 2147

Lekshmi MK

India as a Net Security Provider in the Indian Ocean Region:

A Critique of Raghavan's Maritime Security and Emerging Constraints

Global Politics Review: WPF Report 2026

June 2026 | CWA # 2146

Global Politics Team

Press Freedom in the Indian Neighbourhood

From Afghanistan to Myanmar

Global Politics Review: WPF Report 2026

June 2026 | CWA # 2145

Glynnis Winona B

Myanmar and Press Freedom:

Global Politics Review: WPF Report 2026

June 2026 | CWA # 2144

Nithin V

Bangladesh and Press Freedom:

Global Politics Review: WPF Report 2026

June 2026 | CWA # 2143

Aishal Hab Yousuf

Sri Lanka and Press Freedom:

Five Takeaways on Political influence, Legal mechanisms to control, Ethnic sensitivities and History of State intimidation

Global Politics Review: WPF Report 2026

June 2026 | CWA # 2142

Glynnis Winona B

Bhutan and Press Freedom:

Four takeaways on Regulatory control, Economic fragility, and Social constraints

Global Politics Review: WPF Report 2026

June 2026 | CWA # 2141

Aishal Hab Yousuf

Maldives and Press Freedom:

Four takeaways on the influence of democracy, legislation, and state funding

Global Politics Review: WPF Report 2026

June 2026 | CWA # 2140

Nithin V

Pakistan and Press Freedom:

Four takeaways Military influence, cyber laws, political instability, and youth-driven digital journalism

Global Politics Review: WPF Report 2026

June 2026 | CWA # 2139

Siddhi Halyur

Afghanistan and Press Freedom:

Global Politics Review: WPF Report 2026

June 2026 | CWA # 2138

Siddhi Halyur

Nepal and Press Freedom:

Three takeaways on Political constraints, Missing legal protection and Funding issues

The World This Week

June 2026 | CWA # 2137

NIAS Global Politics Team

Shangri-La Dialogue 2026: Major Statements and Takeaways

The Blue Origin Rocket Explosion

TWTW Explainer

June 2026 | CWA # 2136

Acsah H

The Blue Origin Rocket Explosion:

TWTW Note

June 2026 | CWA # 2135

Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella

Shangri-La Dialogue 2026:

Who said what

TWTW Note

June 2026 | CWA # 2134

Aishal Hab Yousuf

Shangri-La Dialogue 2026: Four Major Takeaways

Focus on Rules-based maritime order, AI & Cyber Security, and Preventive Diplomacy, but with no consensus

Conflict Weekly

June 2026 | CWA # 2133

NIAS Global Politics Team

Israel-Lebanon Tensions and a New Deal I The US-Iran War, Week Fourteen

Conflicts in Africa I The UK-Rwanda Asylum Deal

CW Note

June 2026 | CWA # 2132

Brighty Ann Sarah

The US-Iran War, Week Fourteen:

Intensifying Domestic Pressure and the Lebanon Question

CW Note

June 2026 | CWA # 2131

Rohini Reenum

Israel-Lebanon Tensions:

CW Explainer

June 2026 | CWA # 2130

Akshath Kaimal

The UK-Rwanda Asylum Deal:

CW Column

June 2026 | CWA # 2129

Anu Maria Joseph

Conflicts in Africa This Week:

The Ebola fear in DR Congo and the Elections in Ethiopia amidst conflicts

The World This Week

May 2026 | CWA # 2128

NIAS Global Politics Team

TWTW Note

May 2026 | CWA # 2127

Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella

The Quad Foreign Ministers' Meeting 2026:

Prioritizing Critical minerals, Supply chain resilience, and Maritime surveillance

TWTW Note

May 2026 | CWA # 2126

Aparna A Nair

The Shenzhou-23 Mission:

China's Space Missions, Technology, and Infrastructure

Conflict Weekly

May 2026 | CWA # 2125

NIAS Global Politics Team

Israel-Lebanon Tensions I Crisis in Cuba I Ebola Outbreak in Africa

Weekly Columns on Africa and the Middle East

CW Note

May 2026 | CWA # 2124

Glynnis Winona B

The Crisis in Cuba:

The US Sanctions, Energy Crisis, and Economic Instability

CW Note

May 2026 | CWA # 2123

Akshath Kaimal

The Ebola and the DR Congo:

Multiple Outbreaks, Fragile Healthcare System, and Ineffective Global Responses

CW Column

May 2026 | CWA # 2122

Radhika M Agarwal

The War in Ukraine:

Ballistic missiles, Nuclear drills with Belarus, and the Czech ammunition initiative

CW Note

May 2026 | CWA # 2121

Deb Dutta

Israel, Lebanon, Hezbollah, and the Border Tensions:

Collapse of the Ceasefire, Ineffective Beirut, and Aggressive Tel Aviv

CW Column

May 2026 | CWA # 2120

Brighty Ann Sarah

Conflicts in the Middle East

The US-Iran War Week Thirteen: Escalating Hostilities, Tenuous Ceasefire and Tense Negotiations

CW Column

May 2026 | CWA # 2119

Anu Maria Joseph

Conflicts in Africa

The Ebola spread in DR Congo, The Faye-Sonko split in Senegal, and the Deepening US military involvement in Nigeria

The World This Week

May 2026 | CWA # 2118

Global Politics Team

The Putin-Xi Summit, PM Modi's UAE Visit, and the India-Nordic Summit

TWTW Note

May 2026 | CWA # 2117

Lekshmi MK

Arctic cooperation, Climate diplomacy, and Trade diversification

CW Review

May 2026 | CWA # 2102

Glynnis Winona B

Weakening faith in institutions and Political polarization in Latin America and the Caribbean:

Six Takeaways from the UNDP Democracy and Development Report 2026

CW Note

May 2026 | CWA # 2101

Anu Maria Joseph

The New Wave of Violence in DR Congo:

Farmer-herder clashes, Armed groups, and Security vacuum

The US-Iran War

May 2026 | CWA # 2100

Aishal Hab Yousuf

The Hormuz Strait and the Fertilizer Crisis in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa

The US-Iran War

May 2026 | CWA # 2099

Kirsten Wilfred Coelho

Why is the UK reluctant to engage?

Remembering Amb PS Raghavan and his legacy

May 2026 | CWA # 2098

Sreemaya Nair

India, Russia and the imperative to strengthen the traditional relationship

Remembering Amb PS Raghavan and his legacy

May 2026 | CWA # 2097

Kirsten Wilfred Coelho

President Trump and the US-China Trade Tensions

Remembering Amb PS Raghavan and his legacy

May 2026 | CWA # 2095

Santhosh Guru PR

The Eurasian-Indo Pacific Congruence and its Critique

Remembering Amb PS Raghavan and his legacy

May 2026 | CWA # 2094

Rakshitha B

Transactional US foreign policy and it implications for India's Strategic Autonomy

Remembering Amb PS Raghavan and his legacy

May 2026 | CWA # 2093

Glynnis Winona B

The Russia-Ukraine War and the Rise of Parallel Strategic Systems: A Critique of Raghavan's Strategic Framework

Conflict Weekly

May 2026 | CWA # 2092

NIAS Global Politics Team

The US-Iran War, Week Ten

CW Column on Middle East: Escalating Israeli Aggression in Lebanon I UAE's Covert Manoeuvres

CW Column

May 2026 | CWA # 2091

Brighty Ann Sarah

Conflicts in the Middle East:

Escalating Israeli Aggression in Lebanon I UAEs Covert Manoeuvres

CW Note

May 2026 | CWA # 2090

Brighty Ann Sarah

The US-Iran War, Week Ten:

Fraying Ceasefire, Renewed Negotiations and the Risk of a Stalemate

The World This Week

May 2026 | CWA # 2089

Global Politics Team

US troop withdrawal from Germany I UAEs Exit from OPEC I Japan, Vietnam and PM Takaichis Visit

King Charles's US Visit

TWTW Takeaways

May 2026 | CWA # 2088

Nithin V

King Charles's US Visit:

Emphasis on strong bilateral relations, democratic values and security cooperation

TWTW Note

May 2026 | CWA # 2087

Siddhi Halyur

Japan, Vietnam and PM Takaichis Visit

Exploring Strategic Sectors of Cooperation

TWTW Note

May 2026 | CWA # 2086

Aishal Hab Yousuf

UAE's Exit from OPEC:

Implications for the Middle East and the Energy Market

TWTW Note

May 2026 | CWA # 2085

Glynnis Winona B

US troop withdrawal from Germany:

Growing US-Europe differences and Challenges for Berlin

Conflict Weekly

May 2026 | CWA # 2084

NIAS IPRI

The US-Iran War, Week Nine I Escalating Violence in Mali

Review: Five Takeaways of RSF's 2026 Report on Media Freedom

CW Note

May 2026 | CWA # 2083

Brighty Ann Sarah

The US-Iran War, Week Nine:

Deadlocked Negotiations, Competing Agendas and Domestic Pressure

CW Note

May 2026 | CWA # 2082

Akshath Kaimal

Escalating Violence in Mali:

Between Ethnic Insurgencies, Jihadist Attacks, and Military Coups

CW Review

May 2026 | CWA # 2081

Jenin Raj S

Media freedom hits a 25-year low:

Five Takeaways from the RSF 2026 Index

The World This Week

April 2026 | CWA # 2080

Global Politics Team

Nepals New National Commitment I Japans New Defence Posture

Four Takeaways of the WFP's report on the fallouts of the Middle East crisis

TWTW Note

April 2026 | CWA # 2079

Aishal Hab Yousuf

Japans New Defence Posture:

From Post-War Pacifism to Strategic Recalibration and Autonomy

TWTW Note

April 2026 | CWA # 2078

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal's New National Commitment

Managing Consensus and Moving ahead towards a New Nepal

TWTW Review

April 2026 | CWA # 2077

Nithin V

The Middle East Crisis and its Fallouts on Hunger and Global Food Supply Network

Four Takeaways of the WFP's report on the fallouts of the Middle East crisis, April 2026

CW Column: Africa This Week

April 2026 | CWA # 2076

Anu Maria Joseph

Three years of War in Sudan, DRC-M23 talks in Switzerland and the collapse of the peace agreement in Tigray

Report Review

April 2026 | CWA # 2075

Preetha Renganarayanan

The US-Iran War Fallouts on the Asia Pacific, Energy Security and Supply Chains

Five Takeaways of the UNDP Report, April 2026

CW Note

April 2026 | CWA # 2074

Brighty Ann Sarah

Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire:

Asymmetric Terms, Fragile Truce and Israeli Occupation

CW Note

April 2026 | CWA # 2073

Akshath Kaimal

The US-Iran War, Week Eight:

A Fragile Ceasefire, Attempts to Control Hormuz and the Stalled Talks in Islamabad

Special Commentary

April 2026 | CWA # 2072

Anu Maria Joseph

Three Years of War in Sudan

Prolonged Stalemate, Humanitarian Cost, External Interventions and Regional Fallouts

Conflict Weekly

April 2026 | CWA # 2071

NIAS Global Politics Team

Three Years of Civil War in Sudan I The US-Iran War, Week Eight I Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire

Review of the UNDP Report on Military Escalation in the Middle East I Conflict Weekly Column on Africa

Conflict Weekly Special Edition

April 2026 | CWA # 2070

NIAS Global Politics Team

Peace and Conflicts This Quarter (JanuaryMarch 2026)

The US-Iran War I Conflicts in Africa I The War in Ukraine I China-Japan Tensions I Pakistan-Afghanistan Clashes

Peace and Conflicts This Quarter (JanuaryMarch 2026)

April 2026 | CWA # 2069

Padmashree Anandhan

The War in Ukraine

Expanding Drone Warfare, Russia's Strategic Patience and Ukraine's Diplomatic Outreach

Peace and Conflicts This Quarter (JanuaryMarch 2026)

April 2026 | CWA # 2068

Femy Francis�

China-Japan Tensions

Escalating Defence Posturing and Economic Decoupling

Peace and Conflicts This Quarter (JanuaryMarch 2026)

April 2026 | CWA # 2067

Anu Maria Joseph

Conflicts in Africa

Continuing Conflicts in Sudan, South Sudan and DR Congo, Security issues in Nigeria, and Political Instability in Madagascar

Peace and Conflicts This Quarter (JanuaryMarch 2026)

April 2026 | CWA # 2066

Akshath Kaimal

The Pakistan-Afghanistan Conflict

Recurrent Clashes, Defiant Taliban, Contesting Narratives and Emerging Chinas Role

The World This Quarter

April 2026 | CWA # 2065

Lakshmi Venugopal Menon

The Middle East (JanMar 2026):

The US-Iran War, Israel-Hamas Conflict and their interconnected fallouts

The World This Quarter

April 2026 | CWA # 2064

Anwesha Ghosh

Afghanistan (JanMar 2026):

Gender Repression, Leadership Rifts, Regional Realignments and Clashes with Pakistan

The World This Quarter

April 2026 | CWA # 2063

Ramya B

Russia (Jan-Mar 2026)

Assertive Military Posture, Attempts for an Economic Turnaround and Search for Partners

The World This Quarter

April 2026 | CWA # 2062

Himani Pant

Europe (Jan-Mar 2026)

Trade diversification & FTAs, Increased defence spending, Tightening irregular migration and Economic slowdown

The World This Quarter

April 2026 | CWA # 2061

S Shaji

Africa (Jan-Mar 2026)

Elections, Civil Wars, Militancy and Peace Initiatives

The World This Quarter

April 2026 | CWA # 2060

Nanda Kishor M S

India and the Neighbourhood (Jan-Mar 2026)

Continuity, Caution and Calculated assertiveness

April 2026 | CWA # 2051

TWTW Special Edition

TWTW Special Edition, 350th Issue

THE WORLD THIS QUARTER (Jan-Mar 2026)

Conflict Weekly

April 2026 | CWA # 2050

IPRI Team

The US-Iran War, Week Five: Widening Conflict, Houthi Involvement, and Trumps Renewed Threats

PR Commentary

March 2026 | CWA # 2043

Abhimanyu Solanki

Escalatory Airpower, Hybrid Retaliation, and Regional Security

Reassessing the PakistanAfghanistan Confrontation and Its Implications for India

March 2026 | CWA # 2042

Preetha Renganarayanan

Five Takeaways of the US Annual Threat Assessment (ATA) Report for 2026

March 2026 | CWA # 2041

Aparna A Nair

China-Vietnam 3+3 Strategic Dialogue

Defence, Diplomacy and Public Security

March 2026 | CWA # 2040

Femy Francis

China's Interests and Strategies in the US-Iran War

Why Beijings support for Iran is rhetoric and muted

March 2026 | CWA # 2039

Femy Francis

Trump-Xi Meeting

Why did Trump reschedule it? What does that mean?

March 2026 | CWA # 2038

Anu Maria Joseph

Sudan-Chad tensions and the Boko Haram attack in Nigeria's Maiduguri

March 2026 | CWA # 2037

Padmashree Anandhan

Massive drone attacks, Growing energy leverage and Drifting peace efforts

March 2026 | CWA # 2036

Brighty Ann Sarah

Continuing Israel-Hezbollah Confrontation

Expanding Israeli Military Operations and the Reshaping of Southern Lebanon

March 2026 | CWA # 2035

Akshath Kaimal

Five Takeaways of Human Rights Watch Report 2026

March 2026 | CWA # 2024

Lekshmi MK

The UN and the Iran-US War

UNSC Resolution 2817 between Clear and Unified Message and Manifest Injustice

March 2026 | CWA # 2023

Femy Francis

Chinas Two Sessions 2026

New Five-Year Plan, Ethnic Unity Law, and an Enhanced Defence Budget

March 2026 | CWA # 2022

Padmashree Anandhan

Continuing Strikes and Inconsistent Diplomatic Efforts

March 2026 | CWA # 2021

Anu Maria Joseph

Political instability in Madagascar and spreading violence in South Sudan

March 2026 | CWA # 2020

Brighty Ann Sarah

Continuing Israel-Hezbollah Confrontation

Attacks in South Lebanon, Beiruts Conundrum, and Tel Avivs Greater Goals

March 2026 | CWA # 2019

Akshath Kaimal

Rising Violence in Nigeria

Limited State Capacity, Multiple Actors, and a Complex Security Environment

March 2026 | CWA # 2018

Rohini Reenum

The US-Iran War, Week Two

Expanding Fronts, Shifting Goalposts, and Global Fallout

The World This Week

March 2026 | CWA # 2011

Tanvi Thara Harendra Jha

Canadas PM Mark Carneys India Visit

Resetting Economic, Strategic and Cultural Ties

Global Politics Early Bird

March 2026 | CWA # 2010

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal Elections 2026

The Rise of the New and the Fall of the Old

March 2026 | CWA # 2009

Sreemaya Nair

Nepal Elections 2026

Rise of a new leadership and Reset in political landscape

The World This Week

March 2026 | CWA # 2008

Global Politics Team

Canadian PM's India Visit I Nepal Elections and its Political Reset

March 2026 | CWA # 2007

Global Politics Team

The World Today #272, 06 March 2026

The World Today

Early Bird

March 2026 | CWA # 2006

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal Election 2026, Day One

Peaceful polling, with over 60 per cent turnout

March 2026 | CWA # 2005

Global Politics Team

The World Today #271, 05 March 2026

The World Today

March 2026 | CWA # 2004

Akshath Kaimal

The Forgotten South Sudan Conflict

Instability returns, with a fragile peace agreement, uptick in violence and limited international engagement

March 2026 | CWA # 2003

Yesasvi Koganti

PM Modis Visit to Israel

From bilateral ties to a special strategic partnership

March 2026 | CWA # 2002

Femy Francis

German Chancellors China Visit

Reducing trade deficit and recalibrating economic cooperation with Beijing

March 2026 | CWA # 2001

Preetha Renganarayanan

Six major takeaways on the economy, border and internal security and Iran

March 2026 | CWA # 2000

Rohini Reenum

The US-Iran War, Week One

Rapid Escalation, Regional Spillover, Global Uncertainty

Conflict Weekly

March 2026 | CWA # 1999

IPRI Team

The US-Iran War, Week One | The Return of Violence to South Sudan

Weekly Column on Ukraine & Africa

February 2026 | CWA # 1998

Anu Maria Joseph

Instability in Sudan

Response to the genocide call and the threats of a regional spillover

February 2026 | CWA # 1997

Padmashree Anandhan

Four Years of War in Ukraine

Continuing Uncertainty

February 2026 | CWA # 1996

Akshath Kaimal

Pakistan-Afghanistan Clashes

Another round of cross-border attacks

March 2026 | CWA # 1995

Global Politics Team

The World Today #269, 03 March 2026

The World Today

March 2026 | CWA # 1994

Global Politics Team

The World Today #268, 02 March 2026

The World Today

PR Commentary

March 2026 | CWA # 1993

D Suba Chandran

The US-Iran Conflict and Pakistan

Balancing Rhetoric, Regional Interests and Global Alignments

Conflict Weekly

February 2026 | CWA # 1992

IPRI Team

Pakistan-Afghanistan Clashes I Fours Years of Ukraine War

Weekly Column on Africa

March 2026 | CWA # 1991

Global Politics Team

Trumps State of the Union Address | German Chancellors China Visit | Indias PMs Israel Visit

February 2026 | CWA # 1990

Global Politics Team

The World Today #266, 27 February 2026

The World Today

Conflict Weekly

February 2026 | CWA # 1989

IPRI Team

Abu Dhabi Talks on Ukraine I Militant Attacks in Balochistan

CW Columns on Middle East and Africa

February 2026 | CWA # 1988

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine Peace talks in Abu Dhabi

Negotiations without a ceasefire or resolution

February 2026 | CWA # 1987

Akshath Kaimal

Continuing militant attacks in Balochistan

Expanding violence, Security-first response and Missing political dialogue in Pakistan

PR Commentary

November 2025 | CWA # 1966

Lekshmi MK

Pakistans Climate and Water Crisis

Five Questions on Challenges, Capacity and Policies

The World This Week

February 2026 | CWA # 1965

Global Politics Team

AI Impact Summit in New Delhi I Munich Security Conference 2026

Conflict Weekly

February 2026 | CWA # 1964

IPRI Team

US-Iran & Ukraine Negotiations in Geneva I US Military Deployment in Nigeria

CW Columns on Middle East and Africa

February 2026 | CWA # 1963

Global Politics Team

The World Today #255, 16 February 2026

Today in History

The World This Week

February 2026 | CWA # 1962

Global Politics Team

Japan: Sanae Takaichis historic win | Honk Kong: Jimmy Lai Sentenced

Regional Roundups: From East Asia to the Americas

Early Bird

February 2026 | CWA # 1961

Lekshmi MK

Sanae Takaichis historic win in Japan

What does it mean for domestic politics and regional stability?

Early Bird

February 2026 | CWA # 1960

Femy Francis

Jimmy Lai sentenced for 20 years in Hong Kong: Who, What, and Why

CEAP

February 2026 | CWA # 1959

Yesasvi Koganti

UK and China

PM Keir Starmers visit and the Recalibration of Economic, Strategic, and Domestic ties

February 2026 | CWA # 1958

Akshath Kaimal

India-EU Free Trade Agreement: Five Major Takeaways

The focus on expanded cooperation in defence, technology and critical minerals

February 2026 | CWA # 1957

Preetha Renganarayanan

The India-US interim trade framework

Tariff recalibration and Energy and Supply Chain realignment

February 2026 | CWA # 1956

Lekshmi MK

End of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START)

Erosion of arms control, Return of nuclear anxieties, and the New focus on China

The World This Week

February 2026 | CWA # 1955

Global Politics Team

End of the New START I IndiaUS interim Trade Framework I India-EU Free Trade Agreement I UK PM Keir Starmers China visit

Regional Roundups: From East Asia to the Americas

February 2026 | CWA # 1954

Nishchal Nath Pandey

Nepal Elections 2026: Political Parties, Gen Z Protests and Hope for a New Beginning

Conflict Weekly

February 2026 | CWA # 1953

IPRI Team

Abu Dhabi Talks on Ukraine I Militant Attacks in Balochistan

Weekly Columns: Conflicts in Africa and the Middle East

CW Column: Conflicts in the Middle East

January 2026 | CWA # 1952

Brighty Ann Sarah

US threats against Iran, and Phase Two operations in Gaza

CW Column: Conflicts in Africa

January 2026 | CWA # 1951

Anu Maria Joseph

Africa: Renewed violence in Ethiopia and a Jihadist attack in Niger

CW Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1950

Lekshmi MK

The War in Ukraine: The Trilateral Talks, and the Deadlock over Donetsk & Security Guarantees for Kyiv

CW Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1949

Preetha Renganarayanan

The United States: ICE Crackdowns, Rising Resistance and the Political/Legal pushback

Conflict Weekly

January 2026 | CWA # 1948

ICE Crackdowns and Resistance in the US I Trilateral Talks on Ukraine

TWTW Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1947

Brighty Ann Sarah

The Pentagons National Defence Strategy: Four major takeaways

TWTW Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1946

Preetha Renganarayanan

The Davos Summit 2026

Five Major Takeaways from The World Economic Forum

The World This Week

January 2026 | CWA # 1945

Global Politics Team

The Davos Forum 2026 Takeaways I The US Pentagons National Defence Strategy

CW Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1944

Brighty Ann Sarah

Syria: The State victory over the Syrian Democratic Forces

Conflict Weekly Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1943

Anu Maria Joseph

Another major kidnapping in Nigeria and Election announcement in Guinea-Bissau

CW Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1942

Lekshmi MK

Greenland: Trumps escalation-deescalation approach and Europes defence

CW Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1941

Brighty Ann Sarah

The War in Gaza: Trumps Board of Peace and the Challenges to Phase Two

Conflict Weekly

January 2026 | CWA # 1940

IPRI Team

Trumps Board of Peace in Gaza I Escalation/De-escalation in Greenland

TWTW Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1939

Lekshmi MK

Greenland: Trumps escalation-deescalation strategy and Europes defence

The World This Week

January 2026 | CWA # 1938

Continuing Tensions over Greenland

CW Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1937

Anu Maria Joseph

Instability in Nigeria: Intensifying domestic responses, and questions over Trumps intervention

CW Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1936

Brighty Ann Sarah

Protests in Iran: Continuing Stalemate and Shifting US Position

Conflict Weekly

January 2026 | CWA # 1935

IPRI Team

Protests in Iran | Instability in Nigeria

The World This Week

January 2026 | CWA # 1934

Global Politics Team

The US, Greenland and Trump's Claims

Conflict Weekly

January 2026 | CWA # 1933

IPRI Team

Protests in Iran, the US Military Intervention in Venezuela and Conflicts in Africa

NIAS Conflict Weekly | The World This Week

January 2026 | CWA # 1932

Global Politics Team