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IPRI Team
26 July 2024 |
Conflict Weekly #238, 26 July 2024, Vol.5, No.30
An initiative by NIAS-IPRI
Ayan Datta and Anu Maria Joseph
The Middle East: Houthis and Hezbollah attacks against Israel; Netanyahu visits the US
Ayan Datta
In the news
On 19 July, Yemeni Houthi spokesperson Yahya Saree stated that the group successfully targeted Israel’s capital, Tel Aviv, using a new drone, Yafa, “capable of bypassing the enemy’s interception and undetectable by radars.” The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) spokesperson, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, stated that the Houthis had used a modified Iranian-made “Samad-3” drone in their attack.
On the same day, Hezbollah launched artillery shells at IDF soldiers in Manara.
On 20 July, the IDF carried out “Operation Outstretched Arm,” bombing multiple targets in Yemen’s port city of Hudayda, killing six people and injuring 80 others. The IDF also bombed Hezbollah bases in southern Lebanon and intercepted a “suspicious air target” approaching Israel from Lebanese airspace. Separately, a Hezbollah drone strike injured two IDF soldiers in the Golan Heights region.
On 21 July, Hezbollah fired over 12 missiles and UAVs into northern Israel, damaging a school and setting a nature reserve on fire. On the same day, the Houthis fired multiple missiles at southern Israel’s Eliat city.
On 22 July, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arrived in Washington DC to address a joint session of the US Congress to “anchor the bipartisan support that is so important to Israel.”
On the same day, the IDF reported that its forces would begin operating in the Gaza Strip’s Khan Younis region. Before the attacks, it ordered residents to temporarily evacuate to a “safe zone” in western Khan Younis’ al-Mawasi area. The IDF then carried out raids and airstrikes, killing 70 Palestinians, including “dozens” of Hamas fighters.
On 23 July, the IDF continued “clearing operations” in eastern Khan Younis while Hamas targeted Israeli tanks with rocket-propelled grenades.
Issues at large
First, the Houthis’ intervention in the Gaza War and Iran’s role. Since November 2023, the Houthis began militarily supporting Hamas by attacking merchant ships in the Red Sea. Although they fired around 200 rockets towards Israel since the war started, the 19 July attack was the first successful one. From Israel, Operation Outstretched Arm marked its first direct military attack on the Houthis. According to the US Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA), Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Force (IRGC-QF) enabled the Houthis to carry out long-range strikes against Israel by supplying the Yemeni group with missile and drone technology. Furthermore, the report found that Houthi drones, including the Sammad (range: 1,800 kilometres) and Waid-2 (range: 2,500 kilometres, capable of reaching Israel) had identical designs to Iranian Shahed and Sayad drones.
Second, continuing Hezbollah’s attacks and new tactics. According to the Armed Conflict Location and Even Data Project (ACLED), the number of Hezbollah’s strikes against Israel remained constant since October 2023 with around 150 attacks every month. However, the data indicates that Hezbollah changed its tactics during July 2024, with a growing number (around 12 per cent) of its attacks reaching over three kilometres into Israel’s territory rather than being concentrated around the latter’s border regions.
Third, Netanyahu’s US visit. Around 100 Democrats from both Houses boycotted the session. The Washington Post reported that massive anti-Israel protests erupted in the nation's capital, with demonstrators burning the American flag and chanting pro-Hamas slogans. In his speech, Netanyahu asked the US to intensify military aid to Israel, stating, "Give us the tools faster, and we'll finish the job." He called for a US-led "Abraham Alliance" against Iran and its anti-Israel proxies. On Israel's war efforts, Netanyahu applauded the IDF's efforts. He promised "total victory" against Hamas and "demilitarisation and deradicalisation" of Gaza. Outlining his endgame, he stated that Gaza would be governed by "Palestinians who do not seek to destroy Israel" under the Jewish state's "overriding security control."
In perspective
First, the role of Houthis and Hezbollah. Ahead of Netanyahu's US visit, all of Israel's Iran-backed adversaries including Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthis intensified their attacks on Israel. While Hamas resurfaced in Khan Younis, the Houthis and Hezbollah have extended their strike ranges and reiterated that they will not stop their attacks until Israel agrees to a ceasefire and ends its blockade of Gaza.
Second, mixed US responses to Netanyahu. While Republicans gave Netanyahu a standing ovation in Congress, Biden and Harris avoided sharing the stage with the Israeli leader and preferred to meet him privately, reflecting their critical positions towards Israel's war efforts. While pro-Israel lawmakers praised Netanyahu's presentation of Israel's case, Democrats criticised him for downplaying Gaza's humanitarian situation and the IDF's intelligence failures.
Protests in Kenya: Into the fifth week
Anu Maria Joseph
In the news
On 19 July, Kenyan President William Ruto announced plans for a "broad-based government" following the continuing anti-government protests that began on 20 June. He announced 11 appointments to the new cabinet, including four opposition leaders. Six of them, including the interior, defence, environment and lands ministers, were reappointed from the previous cabinet sacked on 11 July. Ruto stated: “The crisis has presented us with a great opportunity as a nation to craft a broad-based and inclusive citizen coalition for national transformation and progress made up of Kenyans from all walks of life. Consequently, I have started the process of forming a new broad-based cabinet to assist in driving the urgently needed and irreversible transformation of our country.”
On the same day, the protesters rejected the new appointments posting "rejected" written over the list. Meanwhile, the opposition Azimo coalition stated: “This is a betrayal of the Kenyan people, particularly the Gen Z and millennials who have paid the ultimate price to rid this country of the disastrous Kenya Kwanza regime.”
Issues at large
First, continuing protests, despite the withdrawal of the controversial financial bill. The protests began on 25 June against the controversial tax hike bill. The protests continued even after Ruto scrapped the financial bill. The protests led by the young generation or the Gen-Zs have continued for five weeks without a lull. The second round of protest was triggered when security forces used live ammunition to disperse the protesters who set fire to the premises of the parliament. The violence killed 39 people. They demanded the police to be held accountable for the deaths. According to the Kenya National Commission on Human Rights, more than 50 people have been killed and 628 arrested so far in the violent protests. By the third week, the protests became anti-government, demanding Ruto to resign.
Second, the expansion of protests in terms of geography, intensity and actors. The protests began in the capital Nairobi. However, they have spread across the country reaching the outskirts including the southern coastal town of Mombasa. The protesters demand Ruto's resignation. Protests were reported in at least 23 of Kenya's 47 counties. Although fragmented, they have intensified with mass mobilisation, violence, and disruption of daily business. Kenya’s young generation began the protests through social media without political backing. Journalists, labour unions, political parties, and the Kenyan law society directly or indirectly support the protests.
Third, the cause, demands and response. Initially, the protests were against the financial bill to increase taxes. It was also an expression of long-standing discontent against Ruto's financial management and frequent tax increases since he came to power. However, the initial cause and demand diverted and expanded after Ruto withdrew the bill. It shifted to anti-government protests over public grievances, brutal police response, corruption, misgovernance and a demand for Ruto's resignation. Meanwhile, Ruto has placed his response in between support and suppression. He promised to talk with the protesters and praised the young generation for raising their voices. However, the police have been using tear gas, live ammunition, and arbitrary arrests to contain the protests.
Fourth, the spillover effect. The events inspire other democracies in Africa. In Uganda, the younger generation mobilised a march on 23 July through social media, demanding an end to corruption. The protesters wore t-shirts portraying “speaker must resign” and spread the hashtag #StopCorruption.
In perspective
The protests appear to be intensifying. However, with disoriented demands and fragmented participation, they will likely lose their integrity. Initially, mass protests made an impact, forcing Ruto to withdraw the bill. However, the protests appear to be failing now. The new cabinet and inclusion of opposition figures are less likely to calm down the protests. However, protests could disperse with a lack of leadership and concrete demands.
Kenyan protests successfully impacted on African youth and their ability to mobilise the masses. Ugandan youth have followed the Kenyan protests. Several other illiberal democracies in the continent are likely to organise similar protests. The authorities in Kenya and Uganda relied on violent methods to contain the protests, implying a possible continuity of violence alongside protests across the region.
Although the protests gained widespread international media attention, regional and international actors made limited comments except for the initial ones. The absence of a response from the regional and international community implies their reluctance to support the protests and take a stance against the authorities.
Issues in Peace and Conflict This Week:
Regional Roundups
Rohini Reenum, Femy Francis, Anu Maria Joseph, Padmashree Anandhan, Dhriti Mukherjee, Vetriselvi Baskaran, Ayan Datta, Samruddi Pathak, Sayeka Ghosh and Neha Tresa George
China, East, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific
China: Disagreement with the Philippines over resupply agreement on Second Thomas Shoal
On 22 July, Beijing called on Manila to continue its commitment as both countries disputed key elements of a deal on the resupply agreement of Second Thomas Shoal. Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson, Mao Ning, stated: “We hope that the Philippine side will honour its commitments, work with the Chinese side, and jointly manage the situation at sea.” On 21 July, the Philippines and China agreed on the resupply mission. However, the Chinese side said they assented to the deal on the condition that the Sierra Madre be towed away, prior notification for on-site verification, and no construction materials be sent to the area. They added that they would reject the deal if the Philippines sent large construction materials to the region to build fixed facilities. The Philippines Department of Foreign Affairs refuted the claims made by Ning as “inaccurate.”
China: Joint army exercise with Belarus
On 21 July, China’s Ministry of National Defence stated that the closing ceremony of the China-Belarus Eagle Assault-2024 joint army training was held at Belaur, following a ten-day drill on anti-terrorism activities. The exercise included reconnaissance and search, blockading, joint strikes, multidimensional infiltration, and joint anti-terrorism operations. A Belarusian representative said that close commitment from both sides drove the drills successful. A Chinese commander said both sides enhanced mutual trust and friendship. Although the military cooperation was accused of sparking “NATO concerns” in Western media, the countries maintained that the anti-terrorism joint drills contributed to peace and stability.
China: The Philippines president bans Chinese-run online gambling operation
On 22 July, President of the Philippines Ferdinand Marcos Jr banned Chinese-run online gaming operations. The Chinese gaming firms were accused of venturing into “illicit areas furthest from gaming such as financial scamming, money laundering, prostitution, human trafficking, kidnapping, brutal torture, even murder.” The ban would apply to more than 400 Chinese-run online gambling outfits across the Philippines. Condemning the “grave abuse and disrespect” to the Philippine “system of laws,” Marcos ordered the gaming agency to wind down operations by the end of the year.
China: Hamas and Fatah sign the Beijing Declaration to form a post-war unity government
On 23 July, representatives of 14 Palestinian groups, including Hamas and Fatah, signed the “Beijing Declaration on Ending Division and Strengthening Palestinian National Unity.” The Declaration came after China-led negotiations between the Palestinian groups from 21 to 23 July. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that the Palestinian groups agreed to form a unity government for the West Bank and Gaza post-war and reaffirm their commitment to an independent Palestinian state. Diplomats from Egypt, Algeria, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, Russia and Türkiye attended the ceremony.
South Korea: Anti-regime broadcasts in response to North Korea’s balloon campaign
On 25 July, South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said that North Korea launched around 500 balloons carrying trash into South Korean territory on 24 July, with a balloon landing in the presidential compound in Seoul. In response, South Korea reactivated its border loudspeaker broadcasts, a tactic not used in six years. These loudspeakers are used for anti-North Korea broadcasts on Sundays. The Joint Chiefs of Staff reported that the balloons posed no danger as they contained scraps of paper and plastic. However, the situation remained tense after the North Korean leader Kim Yo-jong’s sister warned of “gruesome and dear” consequences if anti-Pyongyang leaflet campaigns continue.
South Korea: Trilateral defence summit with Japan and the US to be held in Tokyo
On 22 July, South Korea’s Ministry of Defence announced that the defence ministers of South Korea, the US, and Japan would convene in Tokyo the next week. The meeting aims to bolster trilateral security cooperation against North Korea's nuclear and missile threats. The talks come alongside both Koreas engaged in a provocative exchange, with North Korea launching trash-filled balloons and South Korea retaliating with anti-Pyongyang broadcasts along the border. South Korean Minister of Defence Shin Won-sik, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Japanese Defense Minister Minoru Kihara would evaluate regional security and ways to institutionalise their collaborative efforts.
Papua New Guinea: 26 people killed in armed men attack
On 25 July, the police told the media that at least 26 people were killed in an armed men attack in three villages in the district of East Sipek in Papua New Guinea. An unconfirmed number of women and girls were reportedly raped before being killed. In February, the UN High Commissioner of Human Rights Volker Türk expressed concern over violence on land ownership and user rights. He urged the government to work with the local communities and resolve the issues. These incidents have raised questions about the government’s awareness, involvement, and ability to address the root cause of tribal disputes in the country.
Myanmar: Junta troops and armed group claim to capture Lashio town
On 25 July, the junta troops and an ethnic armed group claimed to have taken control of the Lashio town, which is home to around 150,000 people and regional military command of the northern Shan state. The fighting intensified in Lashio in early July. According to a media run by the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), “the group fully captured the headquarters of the Northeast Military command in Lashio.” However, junta spokesperson Zaw Min Tun denied the claim. He asserted that the “insurgents infiltrated the outskirts of Lashio so have been following and clearing them.”
Southeast Asia: ASEAN discusses the Myanmar crisis and tensions in the South China Sea
On 24 July, foreign ministers of the ASEAN countries met in Laos as the bloc plans to resolve the Myanmar crisis and tensions in the South China Sea. The meeting will be followed by two summits on 27 July, attended by officials from the US, the EU, Japan, China and Russia. ASEAN members, including Thailand, Indonesia, Singapore, and Malaysia, expressed discontent over the junta’s unwillingness to peace talks. The members additionally tried to finalise a code of conduct with Beijing on the South China Sea.
South Asia
Pakistan: Violence during peace rally and terrorist attacks in KP
On 19 July, a series of terrorist attacks and violent incidents in different parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) killed at least four people and injured over two dozen. In KP’s Bannu city, a peace rally demanding security in the southern district was disrupted by gunfire, killing one and injuring 22 others. The peace rally was held following a recent terrorist attack on the Bannu Cantonment. KP government spokesperson Barrister Muhammad Ali Saif stated that the situation was under control. KP’s Chief Minister Ali Amin Khan Gandapur had ordered an investigation. In South Waziristan, a remote-controlled bomb killed two people. The police reported that the attack targeted peace committee commander Ainullah Wazir’s car. Two civilians were killed in the attack. Another grenade attack on a police post at the Takht-i-Bahi archaeological site in the northeastern Mardan district by unidentified assailants killed one constable and injured two other officers.
Pakistan: TLP calls off protest in Faizabad
On 19 July, the Tehreek-i-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) party called off its protest at Faizabad following a settlement with the federal government. The government agreed to accelerate support to the Palestinian victims in return for the TLP’s decision to call off the sit-in. Subsequently, Pakistan’s adviser to the Prime Minister on Political Affairs, Rana Sanaullah, announced that the TLP would support the government in extending consignments of humanitarian aid to the Palestinians. He assured that over 1000 tonnes of edible items and medicines would be shipped to Palestine before 31 July. Sanaullah agreed to accommodate more Palestinian students and facilitate health facilities in Pakistan. He further agreed to send medical assistance. Sanaullah condemned Israel’s actions and referred to it as a “terrorist state.” He called Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a “war criminal” under international law and urged the international community and the Muslim Ummah to hold him accountable.
Pakistan: Blast in state-run girls’ school in North Waziristan
On 22 July, according to the local police of Mir Ali tehsil in North Waziristan’s tribal district, suspected militants partially destroyed a government-run girls’ school in an explosion on 21 July. No one claimed responsibility for the attack. Similar incidents of targeted killings and bombing have been frequent in the tribal belt in the last decade. Over 1600 schools were destroyed during the period.
The Middle East and Africa
Iran: Germany bans Muslim religious organization accused of supporting Iran and Hezbollah
On 24 July, Germany’s Federal Ministry of the Interior and Community banned a Muslim religious organisation, Islamic Center Hamburg (IZH), and its “national affiliates” for being “anti-constitutional.” The organisation was accused of spreading and disseminating “extremism,” and supporting Iran and Hezbollah. Germany’s Minister of Interior Nancy Faeser stated: “Today, we banned [IZH], which promotes an Islamist-extremist, totalitarian ideology in Germany. This Islamist ideology is opposed to human dignity, women’s rights, an independent judiciary and our democratic government.” Fraser accused the organisation and its “sub-organisations” of spreading “aggressive anti-Semitism.” She claimed that the organisation acts “as the direct representative of Iran’s ‘Supreme Leader” and aims an Islamic revolution in Germany.
Iraq: US and Iraqi military meet in Pentagon to discuss US withdrawal from Iraq
On 22 July, the US Department of Defence stated that US and Iraqi military officials conducted the Joint Security Cooperation Dialogue at the Pentagon “to discuss when and how the mission of the global coalition… in Iraq would end and transition in an orderly manner.” Participants from the US Central Command, the Joint Staff, and the National Security Council were in attendance. Pentagon’s Press Secretary, Air Force Major General Pat Ryder, stated that the dialogue reflected “both nations' commitment to strengthen the bilateral security relationship.”
Sudan: RSF agrees to ceasefire talks
On 24 July, Africanews reported that Sudan’s paramilitary, Rapid Support Forces (RSF), agreed to attend the ceasefire talks in Switzerland scheduled for August. The US and Saudi Arabia are mediating the ceasefire talks to bring an end to the 15-month war. US State Department spokesperson, Matthew Miller stated: “We continue to believe there is no military solution to the conflict in Sudan. And that convening these national ceasefire talks, and making clear that they are backed by key international stakeholders, is the only way to put to end the conflict in Sudan.”
Ethiopia: Twin landslides claim over 100 lives
On 23 July, Al Jazeera reported over 100 deaths from two landslides in the Gofa region. Al Jazeera quoted the Associated Press that 157 bodies have been recovered and the death toll would increase further. In May 2024, there was a mass internal displacement of people affected by floods in Ethiopia. According to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, “floods impacted over 19,000 people in several zones, displacing over a thousand and causing damage to livelihoods and infrastructure” in the region. Meanwhile, on 25 July, BBC reported that the satellite images in Tigray show a humanitarian crisis unfolding, caused by drought, crop failure and insecurity following the war. Climate Change is claimed to be the driver of extreme weather events in the country.
Africa: World records hottest day on 21 July, report EU Climate Action
On 24 July, Africanews reported on extreme heatwaves in Morocco. According to the Ministry of Health over 20 people died in Beni Mellal in a day. Heatwaves have been reported in other African countries including Nigeria, South Africa, Kenya and Ghana. On 25 July, EU Climate Action reported that 21 July was Earth’s warmest day. Satellite data by Copernicus recorded 17.09 degrees Celsius on the day, beating the previous record in 2023. Apart from several African countries, Australia, and Cambodia have crossed the high-temperature records.
Europe and The Americas
Spain: Thousands protest against over-tourism
On 21 July, around 20,000 protestors gathered in Palma in Mallorca against over-tourism. The protestors demanded a change in the tourism model, claiming that the current model was harming the country’s Mediterranean island. Protestors used slogans “let's change course and set limits on tourism” and “Your luxury, our misery.” The protestors belong to 80 organisations and social groups who wanted to limit excessive tourism in the Balearic Isles, especially in the Mallorca, Menorca and Ibiza islands. The extensive tourism has impacted public services, and natural resources, resulting in housing difficulties. The organisers claimed that 50,000 people joined the protest, while the police reported 20,000 and the government claimed 12,000. In 2023, a record 17.8 million people visited the Balearic Islands. The number is expected to increase in 2024.
Ukraine: EU and US plan to lend USD 50 billion to Ukraine
On 22 July, Politico reported that the EU and the US were close to approving a loan of USD 50 billion to Ukraine to help it fight against Russia. However, the US asked the EU to ensure that Russian assets are kept frozen until the loan is repaid as the US government may have to involve Congress if the loan is perceived as taxpayers’ money at risk. In June 2024, the G7 countries agreed to provide a loan of USD 50 billion to Ukraine. As per two EU diplomats, the bloc suggested legalising the assets to be immobilised, until Russia pays Ukraine postwar compensations.
Ukraine: Attack on Crimea causes damage to Russian ferry
On 23 July, the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces said that a Ukrainian attack on occupied Crimea damaged a ferry in the Sea of Azov located in the Krasnodar. According to the Ukrainian General Staff, Russia uses “this ferry to transport railway cars, vehicles and containers for military purposes.” The Governor of Krasnodar Veniamin Kondratyev said that one person died and a few others were injured in the attack.
Panama: Ten people drown in river near border with Colombia
On 24 July, Panama’s National Border Service (SENAFRONT) stated that ten people drowned in a river near the country’s border with Colombia, amid increased risks facing asylum seekers along the popular Darien Gap crossing due to the monsoon season. SENAFRONT pointed out how “transnational organised crime through local collaborators in these Caribbean coastal communities insist on using unauthorised crossings, putting the lives of these people at serious risk.” The Darien Gap’s landscape ranges from steep mountains and dense jungles to strong rivers, with criminal groups operating in the area.
Haiti: Boat carrying migrants catches fire, 40 Haitians killed
On 19 July, the International Organisation for Migration (IOM) stated that at least 40 Haitians were killed and several others were injured at sea after their boat caught fire. The boat carrying more than 80 migrants was going from Fort Saint-Michel in northern Haiti to the Turks and Caicos Islands. The UN migration agency said that the Haitian coastguard rescued 41 people. As per the head of the civil protection office in northern Haiti, Jean-Henry Petit, gasoline-filled drums caught fire and exploded after people on the boat used matches to light candles. The IOM Chief in Haiti, Gregoire Goodstein, stated: “This devastating event highlights the risks faced by children, women, and men migrating through irregular routes, demonstrating the crucial need for safe and legal pathways for migration.” He added that the recent “extreme violence” in the country has forced Haitians to “resort to desperate measures even more.”
Canada: More than 500 wildfires burn across western province
On 24 July, a wildfire reached the Canadian town of Jasper in Alberta, becoming one of hundreds burning in the western provinces of Alberta and British Colombia (BC). The uncontrollable fires include 433 in BC, 176 in Alberta, and over 12 in oil sands hub Fort McMurray. Firefighters were working to save facilities such as the Trans Mountain Pipeline, which carried 890,000 barrels per day of oil from Edmonton to Vancouver. Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stated that his government approved federal assistance for Alberta, and assured: “We're deploying Canadian Armed Forces resources, evacuations support, and more emergency wildfire resources to the province immediately - and we're coordinating firefighting and airlift assistance. Alberta, we're with you.”
The US & Canada: Chinese and Russian aircraft intercepted near Alaska
On 24 July, according to the North American Aerospace Defence Command (NORAD), US and Canadian warplanes “detected, tracked, and intercepted” two Russian TU-95 and two PRC H-6 military aircraft within Alaska’s Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ). The aircraft did not enter the sovereign airspace of either country. Although they were not considered a threat, NORAD said it would “continue to monitor competitor activity near North America and meet presence with presence.” Countries such as the US, China, India, and Japan have ADIZs which require foreign military aircraft to identify themselves before entering specific airspace.
About the authors
Rohini Reenum is a PhD Scholar at NIAS. Padmashree Anandhan and Anu Maria Joseph are Research Associates at NIAS. Femy Francis, Dhriti Mukherjee, and Vetriselvi Baskaran are Research Assistants at NIAS. Neha Tresa George, Samruddi Pathak and Sayeka Ghosh are Research Interns at NIAS. Ayan Datta is a Postgraduate Student at the University of Hyderabad.
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