NIAS Europe Studies

CWA # 1390
NIAS Europe Studies
Germany: Rise of Far-Right questions survival of the left leaning coalition

Neha Tresa George
23 July 2024
Photo Source:

By Neha Tresa George,

Introduction
On 09 June, the EU election in Germany for the Members of Parliament (MEPs) took place. The voters who are either Germans or EU citizens over the age of 16 and are enrolled in the electoral register were allowed to vote. The system of postal voting is also possible for the active participation of citizens abroad. The number of Parliament Members representing Germany is 96 out of the 720 members which was the same as in the 2019 elections. Under the law prescribed in the EU, Germany follows the proportional representation system. The members are elected based on Land lists of candidates, which are nominations of parties or political associations for election in land or several Lander. Since the EU elections of 2014, there has been no restrictive clause or threshold for political parties to be elected to the European Parliament. The country does not follow the system of compulsory voting. The EU elections of 2024 were the first to be held after the Social Democratic Party (SPD) led by Olaf Scholz defeated the Christian Democrats (CDU-CSU) led by Angela Merkel.

How they voted
In the election polls, the conservative opposition Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) led by Manfred Weber gained the overall majority by achieving 30 per cent of the votes. The Far-Right Alternative for Germany (AfD) Party led by Maximilian Krah came second with 15.9 per cent votes mostly topping the eastern German states. Meanwhile, the parties of Far-Left Social Democrats (SPD), neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP) and GRUNE (Greens) comprising the current coalition faced a bitter defeat with 13.9 per cent, 5.2 per cent and 11.9 per cent respectively. The candidates of SPD, FDP and the Greens were Katarina Barley, M A Strack Zimmerman and Terry Rientke respectively. The country’s new populist party disintegrated from DIE LINK, Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) founded by Sahra Wagenknecht attained 6.2 per cent votes. The party combines the economic policies of left-wing along with the cultural views of the right-wing. Germany had a historic voter turnout of 64.78 per cent.

The governing coalition of SPD, FDP and the GRUNE parties led by Olaf Scholz; the Chancellor of Germany performed poorly in the elections with the surveys showing three-quarters of Germans disappointed with the work of the government. The SPD Party of which Scholz is a part, called the election result a “bitter defeat” citing the party’s worst outcome ever in more than 130 years. The three-party coalition failed to acknowledge the issues of the country as its economy, which is the biggest in Europe struggles to generate growth. Despite several demands from the opposition, Scholz had ruled out the possibility of a snap election. Steffen Hebestrait, the German spokesman said, "The election date is next fall as planned, and we plan to follow that through.” Thus, Germany rejected to follow the path of France where Emmanuel Macron, the French President called immediately for a snap election due to his party’s defeat. Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the German President warned the people against the dangers of socialism and hate by highlighting the brutality of National Socialists.

Performance in the last three EU elections
2019: In the EU elections, the majority votes was polled by the CDU/CSU party with 28.9 per cent although they lost five seats compared to the election of 2014.  The GRUNE came second securing 20.5 per cent followed by the SPD and AfD with 15.8 per cent and 11 per cent respectively. The FDP party came sixth with 5.4 per cent preceded by the DIE LINKE (The Left) which attained 5.5 per cent. The election acted as a test to examine the support of Far-Rights in the country due to the AfD party entering the parliament with a third place in the 2017 Federal election. However, their performance did not result in any shift to the power dynamics although they gained four seats more than the previous election. The voter turnout in the country was 61.38 per cent showing a sudden increase of over 13 per cent.

2014: The elections saw the victory of CDU/CSU with 35.3 per cent of votes claiming the majority despite losing eight seats from the previous election. It was followed by the SPD party with 27.3 per cent and the GRUNE with 10.7 per cent. The fourth position was attained by the DIE LINKE party with 7.4 per cent while the AfD and FDP only got 7.1 per cent and 3.4 per cent respectively. The election marked the end of electoral threshold of 5 per cent required to be met by the parties along with the reduction of seats from 99 to 96 under the Lisbon Treaty. The previous electoral thresholds of five per cent and three per cent were rendered “unconstitutional” and “illegal” by the Constitutional court’s ruling. This gave opportunities for representation to the smaller parties. It was also the first election after the formation of AfD, a political party in the right-wing spectrum. The voter turnout for the election was 48 per cent with not much improvement from the previous election in 2009.

2009: In the elections, the CDU party won the majority with an overall share of 30 per cent votes although it lost six seats from the previous election. The party was followed by the SPD with 20.8 per cent and GRUNEN with 12 per cent.  The FDP came in fourth position with 11 per cent of votes and DIE LINK in the fifth with seven per cent votes. The parties competed for 99 seats in the EU and were required to meet the five per cent election threshold. The major six parties that were represented in the national parliament or Bundestag entered the European Parliament by crossing the threshold. The voter turnout was just 43.3 per cent indicating the lower voter turnout in the case of EU elections.
 

Some of the trends from the last three elections;

First, CDU/CSU has been winning the election although by losing a considerable number of seats with each election. The Conservative party has maintained their majority till now.


Second, the increase in voter turnout with each election indicates awareness among German citizens of the importance of the EU elections. According to a survey conducted by the German Economic Institute (IW) in 2024, some 62 per cent of Germans considered the EU election as “important.”


Third, the GRUNE and SPD failed to maintain their position in the 2024 election as they had been gaining second or third majority till the elections in 2019. The result was the result of growing dissatisfaction among the citizens.

Issues in voting
During the election campaigns in Germany for the EU elections, there seemed to be a shift in the political landscape as the Far-Rights were expected to gain more votes. All the major parties like the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Free Democratic Party, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the Christian Social Union of Bavaria (CSU) launched their election campaigns in late April, before the elections.

Domestic issues were in the limelight
The governing coalition led by Olaf Scholz faced several disputes over areas in economy, social welfare and military support for Ukraine with disagreements with the three parties. Meanwhile, the ruling which declared the government's special funding plan for climate and energy programmes unlawful was still looming over the upcoming state budget of 2025. There were also disagreements amongst them over the special purpose funds whereby the SPD and Greens demand them for future investments in contrast to the Liberals deeming substantial cuts in the welfare state.

Economic environment and competitiveness
AS one of the largest economies in the EU, the economic factor and general competitiveness was a key factor in deciding the voters behaviour. With the increasing sanctions on Moscow due to the Ukraine crisis, Germany saw an upsurge in the domestic energy prices due to investments in renewable energy infrastructure and expensive LNG imports from the United States. The structural issues faced by the country like demographic decline, a shortage of skilled labour, derailed infrastructure, ineffective digitalisation along with regulatory hurdles were detrimental to the general competitiveness of the country. In short, the declining economy of Germany affects the entire EU market.

Concern for a global security- Ukraine crisis
Most of the parties campaigned for a more robust European security and a concrete defence strategy. The conflict over the delivery of Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine was in the spotlight of the Germany’s foreign policy discourse. It has also led to internal and cross-party issues as the German parties failed to reach a consensus on how to balance between strengthening Ukraine’s defence capacities and at the same time avoiding a more extensive engagement. Members of the FDP party and the Greens criticised Scholz’s stance on weapon deliveries citing that hesitation could also lead to possible escalation.

Political scandals caused by AfD
Although the Far-Right party were met with various political scandals concerning espionage and corruption, it topped the election results in the eastern German states and secured their historic win of a second position in the country. One of the remarkable things was their increased voter per cent from the young generation.


Leading candidate Maximilian Krah was under pressure as investigator due to the arrest of one of his parliamentary assistants on charges of espionage. Jian G. stands accused of a serious case of espionage on behalf of a foreign secret service as he was described by the federal prosecutor’s office as an "employee of a Chinese secret service.” Despite these accusations, the AfD leadership duo, Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla reaffirmed their support for Krah but indicated their plans to minimise his public presence at party rallies. Campaign posters bearing his face and details of his candidature would also be withheld. 

Conclusion
The German voters opted for an alternative solution by choosing the conservatives and Far-Rights due to the growing dissatisfaction against the governing coalition of liberals and Greens. The current status-quo of Germany led by the coalition was faced with an economic decline, disagreements over migration, defence and devoid of a strong foreign policy. Germany did not opt for a snap election as demanded by the opposition.


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December 2025 | CWA # 1881

Sunidhi Sampige

China Reader
December 2025 | CWA # 1864

Femy Francis

Ten Takeaways of a SCMP Interview with a former PLA Colonel
TWTW Note
December 2025 | CWA # 1861

Femy Francis

China Reader
CW Column: The Conflicts in The Middle East
November 2025 | CWA # 1859

Brighty Ann Sarah

CW Column: The War in Ukraine
November 2025 | CWA # 1858

Padmashree Anandhan

This Week in History
August 2025 | CWA # 1801

R Preetha

28 August 1963
Martin Luther King's "I Have a Dream" speech and the Civil Rights Movement in the US
The World This Week
August 2025 | CWA # 1790

GP Team

The World This Week#323-324
The Trump-Putin meeting & the US-China tariff extension
TWTW note
August 2025 | CWA # 1780

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

Trump tariffs:
Weaponization of access to the US economy
The World This Week
August 2025 | CWA # 1779

GP Team

The World This Week#322
US tariffs on India, Brazil and Canada & the EU-US trade deal
This Week in History
August 2025 | CWA # 1778

Lekshmi MK

28 July 1914
Austria-Hungary declares war on Serbia, starting the First World War
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1770

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

Pakistan-Afghanistan relations:
Why the focus on terrorism, refugees, and Uzbekistan as the third partner?
The World This Week
July 2025 | CWA # 1769

GP Team

The World This Week#321
Indian PM Modi's visit to the Maldives I Elections to the Upper House in Japan
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1762

Lekshmi MK

Ocean Darkening: 
What is the phenomenon? What are its effects? And who are more vulnerable?
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1749

R Preetha

Africa as the Hunger Epicenter
Of the 13 Global Hunger Hotspots, 8 are in Africa: Five reasons why
The World This Week
July 2025 | CWA # 1748

GP Team

The World This Week #318
PM Modi’s Visit to Trinidad and Tobago & Ghana, One big beautiful bill, and Quad Foreign Ministers Meeting
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1744

Chittrothu Vaihali

EU-Canada Summit 2025
What is security and defence partnership all about?
Conflict Weekly
July 2025 | CWA # 1742

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly # 287-88
The 12 Day War and the Congo-Rwanda Peace Deal
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1738

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Thailand and Cambodia
What was the phone call between PM Shinawatra and President of Senate Hun Sen? What is the border dispute between the two? Why has this become an issue?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1735

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025:
Trump making Europe great again
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1734

GP Team

The World This Week #317
NATO Summit 2025 and Russia-Mali bilateral agreements
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1733

Ananya Dinesh

China and the Pacific Islands 
What was the recent China-PIC joint statement about? What it says, and what it means?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1728

M Kejia

G7 Summit 2025:
The Focus on the Middle East and Trade negotiations
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1726

GP Team

The World This Week #316
China-Central Asia Summit in Kazakhstan, and the G7 Summit in Canada
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1725

Brighty Ann Sarah, R Preetha, Santhiya M, Aparna A Nair & M Kejia

Operation Midnight Hammer: US bombs three nuclear sites in Iran
What were the three Iranian nuclear sites that were targeted? What are the B2 Bombers and Bunker Buster Bombs? What do these attacks mean? What Next?
Conflict Weekly
June 2025 | CWA # 1724

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #286
The Spiralling Israel-Iran Crisis, and the Dangerous Hunger Hotspots
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1721

Rizwana Banu S and Santhiya M

Who are the Afrikaners?
Why is Trump interested in the Afrikaner question in South Africa?
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1720

Lekshmi MK

New WMO Report on Arctic Warming
What are the social, economic and environmental implications of Arctic warming
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1719

J Yamini  

China’s EV Surge
What contributes to the rise of BYD
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1717

J Yamini

Gender Violence in Pakistan:
What are the larger issues in the Noor Mukadam case?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1715

Femy Francis

The US-China:
On Tariffs, Rare Earths and Visas
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1713

GP Team

The World This Week #315
The UN Ocean Conference in France and the US-China Meeting in London
CW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1712

R Preetha

The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1705

GP Team

The World This Week #314
Elections in South Korea and Poland I China and the Pacific Island Countries I Bangladesh Election Announcement 2026
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1703

M Kejia 

Sagarmatha Sambaad in Nepal
Kathmandu’s Global Agenda for the Himalayas
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1700

R Preetha

Ethiopia bans the TPLF
What does the TPLF ban mean for the Pretoria agreement? What next for Ethiopia?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1694

Aashish Ganeshan

The US:
Harvard vs Trump Administration
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1691

GP Team

The World This Week #313
China-ASEAN-GCC Summit I President Macron's visit to South East Asia I Trump Vs Harvard
The World This Week
May 2025 | CWA # 1690

GP Team

The World This Week #312
Elections in Romania, Portugal & Poland I UK-EU Summit
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1689

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine
Continuing Russia’s Aerial Attacks, despite exchange of prisoners
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1688

Ayan Datta

Gaza
The Humanitarian Crisis and Israel’s Renewed Offensive
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1685

Aparna A Nair

UK-EU Summit:
First step towards a reset
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1683

Aashish Ganeshan

Elections in Portugal:
The Rise of Chega Party and the Search for Political Stability
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1679

Aashish Ganeshan

US in the Middle Easr
Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1678

Gauri Gupta

China in Latin America
China-CELAC forum: Strengthening ties with Latin America and Caribbean
The World This Week
May 2025 | CWA # 1677

GP Team

The World This Week #310-311
China in Latin America and the Carribbean I Trump's Middle East Visit I Denmark as the new Arctic Chair
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1675

Lekshmi MK

Turkey:
PKK disbands after 40 years of armed insurgency
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1673

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine:
The Discussion in Turkiye and the Elusive Ceasefire
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1671

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

US, Ukraine and Russia:
Air attacks amidst a Minerals deal and Ceasefire Proposals
Global Politics Early Bird
May 2025 | CWA # 1670

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Singapore Elections in 2025:
People’s Action Party (PAP) Wins, Again
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1667

R Preetha and Brighty Ann Sarah

East Asia:
Tough Tariff Negotiations with the US
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1666

Padmashree Anandhan

The US-Ukraine
The mineral deal with the US
Conflict Weekly
May 2025 | CWA # 1665
Conflict Weekly # 280-81
India-Pakistan De-escalation I Ukraine Discussion in Istanbul I The Battle over Port Sudan I Disbanding of PKK in Turkiye I France-Algeria Diplomatic Tensions
Global Politics Early Bird
May 2025 | CWA # 1663

R Preetha

Canada Elections 2025:
What do the results convey? What next for Mark Carney?
Conflict Weekly 250th Issue
October 2024 | CWA # 1480

IPRI Team

This Week in History
July 2024 | CWA # 1413

Ramya B

Global Politics Early Bird
May 2024 | CWA # 1336

Femy Francis

This Week in History
April 2024 | CWA # 1275

Ramya B

NIAS Global Politics Database
March 2024 | CWA # 1251

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
This Week in History
March 2024 | CWA # 1246

Sivasubramanian K

NIAS Global Politics Database
February 2024 | CWA # 1226

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
The World This Week
November 2023 | CWA # 1148

GP Team

The War in Ukraine
October 2023 | CWA # 1091

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri

Issues for Europe
NIAS Pakistan Weekly
October 2023 | CWA # 1087

PR Team

The World This Week
October 2023 | CWA # 1083

GP Team

Conflict Weekly
August 2023 | CWA # 1049

IPRI Team

IPRI Quarterly Forecasts I Triggers, Trends, and Trajectories
July 2023 | CWA # 1012

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar continues to burn
The World This Week
July 2023 | CWA # 1009

GP Team

2022: The World This Year
December 2022 | CWA # 879

Padmashree Anandhan

The Ukraine War
2022: The World This Year
December 2022 | CWA # 872

Sapna Elsa Abraham

Europe: Heatwaves, Wildfires, Droughts, and Ice Melt in Alps
November 2022 | CWA # 838

Rishma Banerjee

Tracing Europe's droughts
NIAS Africa Weekly
March 2022 | CWA # 705

NIAS Africa Team

In Focus: Libya
The World This Week: 150th Issue
December 2021 | CWA # 630

GP Team

Europe in 2021
Pakistan Reader
October 2021 | CWA # 588

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

TLP is back again
NIAS Fortnightly on Science, Technology & International Relations
August 2021 | CWA # 528

STIR Team

Space Tourism
GLOBAL PROTEST MOVEMENTS
September 2020 | CWA # 337

Anju Annie Mammen

The FATF Meeting, February 2020
February 2020 | CWA # 235

Lakshmi V Menon

Science, Technology and International Relations
September 2019 | CWA # 162

Lakshman Chakravarthy N

5G: A Primer
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 71

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 70

Nasima Khatoon

The Maldives
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 69

Harini Madhusudan

India
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 68

Sourina Bej

Bangladesh
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 67

Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer

Afghanistan
United States
July 2018 | CWA # 47

Rahul Arockiaraj

East Asia
June 2018 | CWA # 26

Siddhatti Mehta