NIAS Europe Studies

NIAS Europe Studies
Immigration Backlash Fuels Far-Right Surge in Italy's EU Vote

Sayeka Ghosh
23 July 2024
Photo Source: Financial Times

By Sayeka Ghosh
Introduction
In the 2024 European Parliament elections in Italy, voters turned out in significant numbers, reflecting the growing importance of EU-level politics in the national consciousness. The election saw a marked shift towards right-wing and Eurosceptic parties, with immigration emerging as a central issue that galvanised the electorate.

Italy's electoral system for European Parliament elections follows a proportional representation model with preferential voting. The country is divided into five constituencies: Northwest, Northeast, Centre, South, and Islands. Voters can express up to three preferences within the list of their chosen party, provided that if they express more than one preference, the choices must be for candidates of different genders. The voting process took place over two days, allowing for greater nationwide participation

In terms of turnout, there was a notable increase compared to previous European elections. While the 2019 elections saw a turnout of 54.5 per cent, the 2024 elections witnessed a surge to approximately 62 per cent. This increase in voter participation can be attributed to factors like heightened political tensions surrounding immigration issues, growing concerns about Italy's role in the EU, and intensive campaigning by various political parties.

How they voted
The voting demographics revealed interesting patterns. There was a significant mobilisation of younger voters, particularly in the 18-30 age group, who showed increased engagement with EU-level politics. This demographic was split between far-right parties appealing to nationalist sentiments and more progressive, pro-EU parties emphasising climate change and social issues. Older voters, particularly those over 65, tended to favour more established parties, both on the centre-right and centre-left. However, there was also a noticeable shift among this demographic towards parties with stronger stances on immigration control.

Geographically, the vote highlighted the continuing divide between northern and southern Italy. Northern regions, particularly those with strong manufacturing and export-oriented economies, showed stronger support for right-wing and Eurosceptic parties. These parties campaigned on platforms of protecting Italian economic interests within the EU and stricter immigration controls. Southern regions, while also showing increased support for right-wing parties, maintained significant backing for centre-left and populist parties that promised to address economic disparities and unemployment through EU funding and programmes.

Brothers of Italy (Fratelli d'Italia - FdI) was led by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. The party emerged as the clear winner, securing 28.5 per cent of the vote and 22 seats in the European Parliament. The party League (Lega) led by Matteo Salvini, lost some ground compared to previous elections but still managed to capture 17.8 per cent of the vote and 14 seats. Democratic Party (Partito Democratico - PD), the main centre-left opposition party received 18.2 per cent of the vote, which equals 14 seats. Five Star Movement (Movimento 5 Stelle - M5S), the anti-establishment party continued its decline, securing only 12.5 per cent of the vote and 9 seats. Forza Italia (FI), the centre-right party of former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi obtained 7.2 per cent of the vote and 5 seats. The party Action-Italia Viva is the centrist coalition that received 6.8 per cent of the vote, gaining 5 seats. Green Europe (Europa Verde) also known as the environmentalist party secured 3.5 per cent of the vote and 2 seats. Other various smaller parties collectively received the remaining 5.5 per cent of the vote but did not meet the threshold for seat allocation.

Performance in the last three elections
The European Parliament elections in Italy over the past decade have witnessed significant shifts in the political landscape, reflecting changing national sentiments and broader European trends. In 2009, the political landscape was dominated by Silvio Berlusconi's People of Freedom (PdL) party, which secured a commanding victory with 35.26 per cent of the vote. The centre-left Democratic Party (PD) trailed behind with 26.13 per cent, while the anti-immigration Northern League, then a regional party and Berlusconi's ally, performed strongly with 10.2 per cent. This election reinforced Berlusconi's political dominance and signalled growing support for right-wing policies, particularly on issues like immigration.

The 2014 election marked a dramatic reversal. The Democratic Party, under the leadership of Matteo Renzi, achieved a historic victory, securing an unprecedented 40.8 per cent of the vote. This marked the zenith of centre-left politics in recent Italian history. The anti-establishment Five Star Movement (M5S) made its debut in European elections, capturing 21.2 per cent of the vote, reflecting growing disillusionment with traditional politics. Berlusconi's Forza Italia, the successor to the PdL, managed to secure 16.8 per cent, while the right-wing Northern League obtained only 6.2 per cent. This election seemed to indicate a shift towards more progressive, pro-EU politics in Italy.

However, the 2019 election saw another seismic shift in Italian politics. The League rebranded as a national right-wing party under Matteo Salvini's leadership, surged to first place with 34.3 per cent of the vote, capitalising on anti-immigration sentiment and Euroscepticism. The Democratic Party, despite losing significant ground, maintained second position with 22.7 per cent. The Five Star Movement experienced a notable decline, falling to 17.1 per cent. Forza Italia continued its downward trend, securing only 8.8 per cent. Notably, the far-right Brothers of Italy party began its ascent, obtaining 6.4 per cent. This election marked a clear swing back towards right-wing, Eurosceptic politics, setting the stage for the further rise of far-right parties in subsequent years.

This evolution over the three elections reflects the volatility of Italian politics and the broader European trend of traditional parties losing ground to more extreme or anti-establishment movements. The rise of far-right parties, particularly on the issue of immigration, has been a consistent theme, while the centre-left has struggled to maintain its once-dominant position. The decline of the Five Star Movement illustrates the challenges faced by anti-establishment parties once they enter the realm of governance. Italy's complex relationship with the European Union has remained a central theme throughout these elections, with parties across the spectrum offering varying visions of Italy's place in Europe.

Issues in voting
The 2024 European Parliament elections in Italy were characterised by various pressing issues that shaped the political discourse and influenced voter decisions. Different parties focused on specific topics to appeal to their base and attract new supporters. The complexity of these issues and their perceived impact on Italian society played a crucial role in determining the election outcome.

Immigration emerged as the dominant issue of the campaign, particularly benefiting right-wing and far-right parties. The Brothers of Italy, which secured the largest share of votes, centred its campaign on a hardline anti-immigration stance. They promised to drastically reduce incoming migration flows, arguing that uncontrolled immigration was putting a strain on Italy's social services and changing the cultural fabric of the country. The party proposed stricter border controls, faster deportation processes for illegal immigrants, and a renegotiation of EU migration policies to ensure a more equitable distribution of asylum seekers across member states.

 The Lega, while no longer the leading party, maintained a strong position by focusing on similar anti-immigration rhetoric. They emphasised the need to protect Italian identity and prioritise the needs of Italian citizens over those of immigrants. Both these parties successfully tapped into growing public concerns about integration, crime rates, and the perceived economic impact of immigration, particularly in regions experiencing high unemployment.

Economic issues and Italy's relationship with the EU formed another crucial aspect of the campaign. The ongoing debate about Italy's economic policies within the constraints of EU fiscal rules was a key focus. Right-wing parties, including the Brothers of Italy and the Lega, advocated for greater economic sovereignty and less EU interference in national fiscal policies. They promised to challenge EU budget constraints and push for policies that would prioritise Italian economic interests, even if they conflicted with EU regulations.

On the other hand, the Democratic Party and the new centrist coalition positioned themselves as responsible pro-EU voices. They emphasised the importance of Italy's place within the EU for economic stability and growth. These parties focused on reforming EU institutions from within, promising to work towards a more flexible interpretation of fiscal rules while maintaining Italy's commitment to the European project. They highlighted the benefits of EU membership, including access to the single market and EU funds for development and infrastructure projects.

The issue of youth unemployment and brain drain continued to be a significant concern, particularly in southern Italy. The Five Star Movement, despite its overall decline, tried to maintain relevance by focusing on these issues. They proposed ambitious job creation programmes, investments in education and vocational training, and initiatives to encourage young Italians to stay in the country or return from abroad. The party also emphasised its commitment to fighting corruption and promoting transparency in governance, themes that had previously resonated with younger voters.

Climate change and environmental protection gained prominence in this election, particularly among urban and younger voters. Green parties and left-wing coalitions made this a central part of their campaign, proposing ambitious targets for reducing carbon emissions, investing in renewable energy, and promoting sustainable urban development. They argued that Italy could become a leader in green technology and sustainable tourism, creating new jobs while addressing environmental concerns. This focus helped these parties to improve their performance compared to previous elections, especially in major cities and among more educated voters.

The question of national sovereignty versus European integration was a recurring theme across party lines. While right-wing parties framed this in terms of protecting Italian interests against EU overreach, pro-EU parties emphasised the need for Italy to have a strong voice within EU institutions to shape policies favourable to Italian interests. This debate touched on various aspects, from economic policy to defence and foreign affairs.

The role of Italy in EU foreign policy, particularly regarding relations with Russia and China, was another point of contention. Right-wing parties generally advocated for a more independent foreign policy, often expressing scepticism towards EU sanctions on Russia and calling for more balanced economic relations with China. Pro-EU parties, in contrast, emphasised the importance of a united European front in dealing with global powers and maintaining strong transatlantic ties.

The COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath continued to influence the political discourse. Parties across the spectrum addressed the ongoing economic recovery, with debates focusing on how to best utilise EU recovery funds. Right-wing parties criticised the perceived inefficiencies in fund distribution and called for more national control over recovery strategies. Centre-left and centrist parties emphasised the need for continued European cooperation in health policy and economic recovery, pointing to the success of joint vaccine procurement and the establishment of the recovery fund as examples of effective EU action.

Digital transformation and technological sovereignty emerged as new themes in this election. Parties discussed Italy's position in the growing competition between the US and China in areas like 5G networks, artificial intelligence, and data protection. There were calls for greater European autonomy in key technological sectors, with different parties offering varying approaches to achieve this goal.

The issue of democratic backsliding in some EU member states and its implications for the future of the Union also featured in the campaign. Pro-EU parties emphasised the need to protect democratic values and the rule of law across the bloc, while Eurosceptic parties framed this as unwarranted interference in national affairs.

Regional disparities within Italy, particularly the enduring North-South divide, remained a significant issue. Southern Italian voters were particularly receptive to promises of increased EU funding for infrastructure and development projects. Parties across the spectrum offered different visions for addressing these disparities, ranging from greater autonomy for prosperous northern regions to increased centralised efforts to boost the southern economy.

The ageing population and the sustainability of the pension system was another topic that resonated with older voters. Different parties proposed various reforms to address this challenge, from raising the retirement age to increasing immigration to support the workforce.

Lastly, cultural and social issues played a role in the campaign, albeit to a lesser extent than economic and immigration concerns. Debates around LGBTQ+ rights, gender equality, and the role of the Catholic Church in public life helped to differentiate parties along socially conservative and progressive lines.

Conclusion: The Road Ahead
The 2024 European Parliament elections in Italy, characterised by the surge of far-right parties fueled by an immigration backlash, mark a significant turning point in Italian politics. This shift reflects broader trends across Europe, where concerns about immigration, national identity, and economic insecurity have bolstered support for populist and Eurosceptic movements. The success of the Brothers of Italy, building on the earlier rise of the League, signals a potential long-term realignment of Italian politics towards the right. However, the volatility observed in recent elections suggests that this trend is not irreversible.

Several factors will likely play crucial roles in the future elections. The ability of far-right parties to maintain their appeal beyond the immigration issue will be critical, particularly as they face the challenges of governance. The response of centre-left and moderate parties in addressing voter concerns about immigration, economic stability, and Italy's relationship with the EU will be equally important. The ongoing impact of global events, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and its economic repercussions, will continue to shape voter priorities. Additionally, the evolution of the Five Star Movement's position and the potential emergence of new political forces could further alter the landscape.

Climate change and environmental issues, which gained traction in the 2024 election, may become increasingly central to future campaigns, especially among younger voters. The north-south divide within Italy and the broader question of regional disparities will likely remain significant factors. Furthermore, the EU's ability to address member states' concerns about sovereignty and economic policy will influence Italian attitudes towards European integration.

References
2019 European Election Results: Italy,” European Parliament, 25 June 2004
Chiaramonte, Alessandro, Vincenzo Emanuele, Nicola Maggini, and Aldo Paparo, “Populist Success in a Hung Parliament: The 2018 General Election in Italy,” South European Society and Politics, 03 September 2018
Bordignon, Fabio, and Luigi Ceccarini, “Five Stars and a Cricket. Beppe Grillo Shakes Italian Politics,” South European Society and Politics, 21 February 2013
Segatti, Paolo, Monica Poletti, and Cristiano Vezzoni, “Renzi's Honeymoon Effect: The 2014 European Election in Italy,” South European Society and Politics, October 2015


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Brighty Ann Sarah

January 2026 | CWA # 1940

IPRI Team

January 2026 | CWA # 1939

Lekshmi MK

January 2026 | CWA # 1937

Anu Maria Joseph

December 2025 | CWA # 1931

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1930

Aparna A Nair

December 2025 | CWA # 1924

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1914

Preetha Renganarayanan

December 2025 | CWA # 1913

Rohini Reenum

December 2025 | CWA # 1912

Lekshmi MK

December 2025 | CWA # 1911

Swati Sood

December 2025 | CWA # 1905

Femy Francis

December 2025 | CWA # 1902

Brighty Ann Sarah

December 2025 | CWA # 1893

Lekshmi MK

December 2025 | CWA # 1889

Femy Francis

December 2025 | CWA # 1881

Sunidhi Sampige

December 2025 | CWA # 1864

Femy Francis

Ten Takeaways of a SCMP Interview with a former PLA Colonel
December 2025 | CWA # 1861

Femy Francis

China Reader
November 2025 | CWA # 1859

Brighty Ann Sarah

November 2025 | CWA # 1858

Padmashree Anandhan

August 2025 | CWA # 1801

R Preetha

28 August 1963
Martin Luther King's "I Have a Dream" speech and the Civil Rights Movement in the US
August 2025 | CWA # 1790

GP Team

The World This Week#323-324
The Trump-Putin meeting & the US-China tariff extension
August 2025 | CWA # 1780

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

Trump tariffs:
Weaponization of access to the US economy
August 2025 | CWA # 1779

GP Team

The World This Week#322
US tariffs on India, Brazil and Canada & the EU-US trade deal
August 2025 | CWA # 1778

Lekshmi MK

28 July 1914
Austria-Hungary declares war on Serbia, starting the First World War
July 2025 | CWA # 1770

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

Pakistan-Afghanistan relations:
Why the focus on terrorism, refugees, and Uzbekistan as the third partner?
July 2025 | CWA # 1769

GP Team

The World This Week#321
Indian PM Modi's visit to the Maldives I Elections to the Upper House in Japan
July 2025 | CWA # 1762

Lekshmi MK

Ocean Darkening: 
What is the phenomenon? What are its effects? And who are more vulnerable?
July 2025 | CWA # 1749

R Preetha

Africa as the Hunger Epicenter
Of the 13 Global Hunger Hotspots, 8 are in Africa: Five reasons why
July 2025 | CWA # 1748

GP Team

The World This Week #318
PM Modi’s Visit to Trinidad and Tobago & Ghana, One big beautiful bill, and Quad Foreign Ministers Meeting
July 2025 | CWA # 1744

Chittrothu Vaihali

EU-Canada Summit 2025
What is security and defence partnership all about?
July 2025 | CWA # 1742

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly # 287-88
The 12 Day War and the Congo-Rwanda Peace Deal
July 2025 | CWA # 1738

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Thailand and Cambodia
What was the phone call between PM Shinawatra and President of Senate Hun Sen? What is the border dispute between the two? Why has this become an issue?
June 2025 | CWA # 1735

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025:
Trump making Europe great again
June 2025 | CWA # 1734

GP Team

The World This Week #317
NATO Summit 2025 and Russia-Mali bilateral agreements
June 2025 | CWA # 1733

Ananya Dinesh

China and the Pacific Islands 
What was the recent China-PIC joint statement about? What it says, and what it means?
June 2025 | CWA # 1728

M Kejia

G7 Summit 2025:
The Focus on the Middle East and Trade negotiations
June 2025 | CWA # 1726

GP Team

The World This Week #316
China-Central Asia Summit in Kazakhstan, and the G7 Summit in Canada
June 2025 | CWA # 1725

Brighty Ann Sarah, R Preetha, Santhiya M, Aparna A Nair & M Kejia

Operation Midnight Hammer: US bombs three nuclear sites in Iran
What were the three Iranian nuclear sites that were targeted? What are the B2 Bombers and Bunker Buster Bombs? What do these attacks mean? What Next?
June 2025 | CWA # 1724

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #286
The Spiralling Israel-Iran Crisis, and the Dangerous Hunger Hotspots
June 2025 | CWA # 1721

Rizwana Banu S and Santhiya M

Who are the Afrikaners?
Why is Trump interested in the Afrikaner question in South Africa?
June 2025 | CWA # 1720

Lekshmi MK

New WMO Report on Arctic Warming
What are the social, economic and environmental implications of Arctic warming
June 2025 | CWA # 1719

J Yamini  

China’s EV Surge
What contributes to the rise of BYD
June 2025 | CWA # 1717

J Yamini

Gender Violence in Pakistan:
What are the larger issues in the Noor Mukadam case?
June 2025 | CWA # 1715

Femy Francis

The US-China:
On Tariffs, Rare Earths and Visas
June 2025 | CWA # 1713

GP Team

The World This Week #315
The UN Ocean Conference in France and the US-China Meeting in London
June 2025 | CWA # 1712

R Preetha

June 2025 | CWA # 1705

GP Team

The World This Week #314
Elections in South Korea and Poland I China and the Pacific Island Countries I Bangladesh Election Announcement 2026
June 2025 | CWA # 1703

M Kejia 

Sagarmatha Sambaad in Nepal
Kathmandu’s Global Agenda for the Himalayas
June 2025 | CWA # 1700

R Preetha

Ethiopia bans the TPLF
What does the TPLF ban mean for the Pretoria agreement? What next for Ethiopia?
June 2025 | CWA # 1694

Aashish Ganeshan

The US:
Harvard vs Trump Administration
June 2025 | CWA # 1691

GP Team

The World This Week #313
China-ASEAN-GCC Summit I President Macron's visit to South East Asia I Trump Vs Harvard
May 2025 | CWA # 1690

GP Team

The World This Week #312
Elections in Romania, Portugal & Poland I UK-EU Summit
May 2025 | CWA # 1689

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine
Continuing Russia’s Aerial Attacks, despite exchange of prisoners
May 2025 | CWA # 1688

Ayan Datta

Gaza
The Humanitarian Crisis and Israel’s Renewed Offensive
May 2025 | CWA # 1685

Aparna A Nair

UK-EU Summit:
First step towards a reset
May 2025 | CWA # 1683

Aashish Ganeshan

Elections in Portugal:
The Rise of Chega Party and the Search for Political Stability
May 2025 | CWA # 1679

Aashish Ganeshan

US in the Middle Easr
Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE
May 2025 | CWA # 1678

Gauri Gupta

China in Latin America
China-CELAC forum: Strengthening ties with Latin America and Caribbean
May 2025 | CWA # 1677

GP Team

The World This Week #310-311
China in Latin America and the Carribbean I Trump's Middle East Visit I Denmark as the new Arctic Chair
May 2025 | CWA # 1675

Lekshmi MK

Turkey:
PKK disbands after 40 years of armed insurgency
May 2025 | CWA # 1673

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine:
The Discussion in Turkiye and the Elusive Ceasefire
May 2025 | CWA # 1671

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

US, Ukraine and Russia:
Air attacks amidst a Minerals deal and Ceasefire Proposals
May 2025 | CWA # 1670

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Singapore Elections in 2025:
People’s Action Party (PAP) Wins, Again
May 2025 | CWA # 1667

R Preetha and Brighty Ann Sarah

East Asia:
Tough Tariff Negotiations with the US
May 2025 | CWA # 1666

Padmashree Anandhan

The US-Ukraine
The mineral deal with the US
May 2025 | CWA # 1665
Conflict Weekly # 280-81
India-Pakistan De-escalation I Ukraine Discussion in Istanbul I The Battle over Port Sudan I Disbanding of PKK in Turkiye I France-Algeria Diplomatic Tensions
May 2025 | CWA # 1663

R Preetha

Canada Elections 2025:
What do the results convey? What next for Mark Carney?
October 2024 | CWA # 1480

IPRI Team

July 2024 | CWA # 1413

Ramya B

May 2024 | CWA # 1336

Femy Francis

April 2024 | CWA # 1275

Ramya B

March 2024 | CWA # 1251

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
March 2024 | CWA # 1246

Sivasubramanian K

February 2024 | CWA # 1226

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
November 2023 | CWA # 1148

GP Team

October 2023 | CWA # 1091

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri

Issues for Europe
October 2023 | CWA # 1087

PR Team

October 2023 | CWA # 1083

GP Team

August 2023 | CWA # 1049

IPRI Team

July 2023 | CWA # 1012

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar continues to burn
July 2023 | CWA # 1009

GP Team

December 2022 | CWA # 879

Padmashree Anandhan

The Ukraine War
December 2022 | CWA # 872

Sapna Elsa Abraham

November 2022 | CWA # 838

Rishma Banerjee

Tracing Europe's droughts
March 2022 | CWA # 705

NIAS Africa Team

In Focus: Libya
December 2021 | CWA # 630

GP Team

Europe in 2021
October 2021 | CWA # 588

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

TLP is back again
August 2021 | CWA # 528

STIR Team

Space Tourism
September 2020 | CWA # 337

Anju Annie Mammen

February 2020 | CWA # 235

Lakshmi V Menon

September 2019 | CWA # 162

Lakshman Chakravarthy N

5G: A Primer
December 2018 | CWA # 71

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal
December 2018 | CWA # 70

Nasima Khatoon

The Maldives
December 2018 | CWA # 69

Harini Madhusudan

India
December 2018 | CWA # 68

Sourina Bej

Bangladesh
December 2018 | CWA # 67

Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer

Afghanistan
July 2018 | CWA # 47

Rahul Arockiaraj

June 2018 | CWA # 26

Siddhatti Mehta