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IPRI Team
31 October 2024 |
Conflict Weekly #252, 31 October 2024, Vol.5, No.44
An initiative by NIAS-IPRI
Samruddhi Pathak and Manoranjan Kumar
Continuing Israel-Iran-Hezbollah-Hamas Conflict
Samruddhi Pathak
In the news
On 29 October, the director-general of the Gaza government media office, Ismail al-Thawabta, said that at least 110 people have been killed and 40 are missing after an Israeli attack on a residential building housing displaced people in Beit Lahiya in Gaza.
On 29 October, Hezbollah announced its Deputy General Secretary, Naim Qassem, as the armed group's new General Secretary following the assassination of its former leader, Hassan Nasrallah, on 27 September.
On 28 October, Lebanon’s Ministry of Health stated that Israeli strikes killed at least 60 people in Baalbek in the eastern Bekaa Valley, Lebanon.
On 28 October, Israel passed two controversial bills, banning the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) from operating on Israeli territory and the West Bank.
On 26 October, Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) carried out targeted airstrikes on several military sites in Iran. The Iranian military confirmed that one civilian and four soldiers were killed in the attacks.
Issues at large
First, Israel's Iran offensive. Israel's 28 October attack targeted the Parchin military complex in Iran, a site used for missile production and air defence. Another target was 20 kilometres from Parchin, a military base suspected to have the highest concentration of ballistic missile-related infrastructure. The attack also targeted oil refineries in Iran aimed at disrupting facilities and supply chains.
Second, Israel's Lebanon offensive. Israel has been bombing around south Beirut, causing significant collateral damage, especially civilian deaths. Israel has been assassinating Hezbollah's top leaders. The previous week, IDF targeted a hospital, sheltering financial aid provider to Hezbollah. The attacks seem to aim at the morale of Hezbollah fighters.
Third, Israel's attacks in Gaza. Israel has aimed to strategically eliminate Hamas through an on-ground offensive and pressure the latter to release the hostages. However, the attacks continue to result in a significant number of civilian killings.
In perspective
With Israel attacking important military bases, Iran might speed up its nuclear development programme, a major concern for Israel and the West. The regional countries will likely mediate diplomatic negotiations as the conflict escalates. Eygpt and Qatar's involvement depicts the region's interests in the conflict.
Israel's bill to ban UNRWA aid has invited criticism on an international level. Israel's diplomatic position has hardened further on Gaza, which is affecting the livelihood of Gazans. Israel is also losing moral ground by imposing a ban on relief aid. Around six million Gazans have benefited from UNRWA aid since 1950.
Georgian Parliamentary Election 2024: Accusations of Rigging
Manoranjan Kumar
In the news
On 26 October, Georgia voted for a new parliament and government. The central electoral commission said the ruling Georgian Dream Party won, securing nearly 54 per cent of votes—the party heads for a fourth consecutive term in office with 89 parliamentary seats. The opposition, a coalition of four parties, secured 37.7 per cent votes with 61 seats.
On the same day, the pro-Western opposition contested the result, alleging ballot-stuffing, bribery, voter intimidation and violence during election and polling.
On 27 October, Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili called on Georgians to protest against the result. She said: “This was a total rigging, a total robbery of your votes.” President Zourabichvili, a former ally of the ruling Georgian Dream and turned a fierce critic, said that she did not recognize the results and referred to the vote as a “Russian special operation”. However, Russia has denied any involvement in the Georgian election.
On 28 October, BBC interviewed Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze. He rejected the opposition’s claims of vote-rigging and violence. He said: “Irregularities happen everywhere, in every country. Out of 3,111 polling stations, there had been incidents in just a couple of precincts but that in all others the environment was completely peaceful.”
On 29 October, NEWS WIRES quoted Georgia’s central election commission that it will recount ballots from five polling stations, randomly selected from each election district, following the opposition’s refusal to recognize the results.
Issues at large
First, a brief background of the Georgian political system. Georgia, a country of 3.6 million people in the Caucasus mountains, is a democratic republic, combining elements of parliamentary and semi-presidential system. The President is the head of state but has limited power than the Prime Minister. The country has a multi-party system, although a few dominant parties hold the majority influence. The Georgian Dream Party and the United National Movement are two major parties. The Georgian Dream party has been in power since 2012. This year's election was held under a new proportional electoral system, in which parties had to reach a five per cent threshold to win seats in the 150-seat Parliament.
Second, major issues in the parliamentary election of 2024. The 2024 election was crucial, as the voters had to choose between a pro-Western opposition coalition and a Russia-inclined ruling party. However, 80 per cent of Georgians favour joining the EU, according to various poll data during the election. The ruling Georgian Dream Party campaigned with slogans including 'No to war!', 'Choose peace', and 'Yes to the EU but with dignity!'. However, the opposition has repeatedly accused the party of subverting this objective. The ruling government's policies are deciding factors in the parliamentary election. It includes "foreign agent law," which is similar to Russian law and is used to crush political dissents. This law states that nongovernmental groups and independent media outlets must register as '"agents of foreign influence." This legislation has sparked mass protests across Georgia. Another legislation called "LGBT propaganda" was passed by the current government to restrict the rights of this vulnerable group. Unemployment and mass migration were other significant issues in this election.
Third, the election results in 2024 and allegations by opponents. The Georgian Dream's unprecedented victory has sparked controversy, with all opposition parties rejecting the results. They have raised concerns over election integrity, voter intimidation, ballot-stuffing, and the use of state resources to sway the election in favour of the Georgian Dream. The exit poll results favoured the pro-West opposition coalition. The opposition party Coalition for Change's leader described the result as 'a constitutional coup.' International observers have criticized the elections, including the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and the European Union. It has called for investigations into irregularities and reports of coercion, especially targeting vulnerable and public sector workers. However, according to observers, the election was peaceful, and there was uncertainty regarding the election's legitimacy.
Fourth, the EU's stance. The EU closely monitored the election as Georgia gained candidate status in December 2023. The President of the European Council, Charles Michel, called on Georgia's election commission to investigate the reported violations. The head of the European Parliament delegation to the OSCE mission, Antonio Lopezlsturiz White, expressed deep concern about the democratic backsliding in Georgia. The EU has already responded by freezing Georgia’s bid to join the bloc, accusing it of democratic backsliding after the government passed the ‘foreign agent law’ in June.
In perspective
After the 2024 parliamentary election results, the situation in Georgia seems concerning. The alleged fraud in the election by the ruling Georgian Dream has put the country's democratic future in loom. A group of Georgian election monitors found evidence of complex and large-scale fraud, particularly in rural areas and demanded the annulment of at least 15 per cent of votes. The opposition parties have decided not to enter the new "illegitimate" Parliament and demanded fresh elections run by an international election administration. It seems Georgia is in serious political turmoil. If the allegations of electoral misconduct are not resolved, Georgia will likely face mass protests in the coming days. It will be interesting to see how Georgia will handle this extraordinary situation amid international pressure on alleged election irregularities.
For EU membership, it is mandatory to fulfil the Copenhagen criteria set by the European Council. The requirements include stable liberal democracy, rule of law, human rights, respect for minorities, and a functional market economy. The ongoing situation is weakening the chances of Georgia's integration into the EU. The voters seem divided over the country's future course. Support for the pro-Western opposition groups came from urban and younger voters, who envision their future with the EU. Meanwhile, the ruling government received the support of conservatives by stressing family values and criticizing Western excesses. This ongoing polarization reflects the high stakes of Georgia’s geopolitical position between Russian influence and Western integration goals.
Issues in Peace and Conflict This Week:
Regional Roundups
Rohini Reenum, Femy Francis, Anu Maria Joseph, Padmashree Anandhan, Ayan Datta, Samruddi Pathak, Sayeka Ghosh and Neha Tresa George
China, East, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific
China: European Commission criticizes military activities near Taiwan as a “misinterpretation” of UN Resolution 2758
On 24 October, Focus Taiwan quoted the European Commission that Chinese military activities near Taiwan have increased cross-strait tensions. The EU supported Taiwan’s claims, opposing China’s “One China” policy. European Parliament criticized China’s “misinterpretation” of the UN Resolution 2758. The resolution recognizes the representatives of the People’s Republic of China as the legitimate government of China without referring to Taiwan or China’s peripheral neighbourhood. However, China has claimed that the resolution has acknowledged the “One China” policy by restoring its seat in the UN General Assembly. The EU stated that it does not support “any unilateral actions that change the status quo by force or coercion.” It highlighted that the peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait are of “strategic importance for regional and global security and prosperity.”
China: Social media bots influencing US voters, claims Microsoft
On 23 October, Chinese-controlled social media bots allegedly attempted to influence the voters in Alabama, Texas, and Tennessee, claims Microsoft. New research published by Microsoft claimed that fake accounts are criticizing all Republicans. They include Alabama's representative Barry Moore, representative Michael McCaul of Texas, and Tennessee Senator Marsha Blackburn. Microsoft stated that the fake accounts “parroted antisemitic messages, amplified accusations of corruption, and promoted opposition candidates.” The group responsible, Taizi Food, is allegedly associated with China's Ministry of Public Security. The Chinese embassy, however, stated that such allegations are "full of malicious speculations" and that it "has no intention and will not interfere in the US election."
Taiwan: Denmark requires Taiwan citizens to identify their birthplace as China
On 24 October, Taiwan News quoted a Danish newspaper, Berlingske, that at least ten Taiwanese citizens changed their birthplace to China. According to the newspaper, at least one Taiwanese national received a Danish residence card with their nationality and place of birth as China. An internal government email exchange revealed by the newspaper says that Denmark does not recognize Taiwan as a country. Taiwan Corner Chair Michael Danielsen said: “The latest report gives the impression that Denmark considers Taiwan to be under Beijing's rule. Is it Denmark’s position that Taiwan’s 24 million people, who live in a full democracy, should be subjected to China’s authoritarian regime? Denmark should not gamble with people’s nationality and the government's policy is evidence of a disorganized administration and pointed out that Denmark is the only country in the EU that has imposed this policy on Taiwanese nationals.”
Taiwan: US approves new arms sales package worth USD two billion
On 26 October, Reuters reported that the US approved an arms sale package to Taiwan worth USD two billion. The Defence Security Cooperation Agency under the US Department of Defence informed that the new sale included USD 1.16 billion for missile systems and USD 828 million for radar systems. The department commented that the sale served US national, economic, and security interests by supporting Taiwan's efforts to modernize its armed forces and maintain defensive capabilities. Additionally, the department informed that it was selling three National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS) to Taiwan. Taiwan's Ministry of National Defence welcomed the sale, stating that the NASAMS system would improve its air defence capabilities.
South Korea: Seol and NATO warn on North Korean troop deployment in Russian frontline
On 29 October, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol warned about the possibility of North Korean troops being deployed by Russia to the frontlines against Ukraine. The European Commission President’s office stated that Yoon had shared intelligence on North Korea’s troop deployments for Russia and discussed the retaliatory measures in a telephonic conversation with President Ursula von der Leyen. Yoon additionally signalled his visit to Ukraine and stated: “Today, I can confirm that North Korean troops have been sent to Russia and that North Korean military units have been deployed to the Kursk region.”
On 28 October, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte confirmed North Korean troops being deployed in the Kursk frontline. He stated: “The deepening military cooperation between Russia and North Korea is a threat to both Indo-Pacific and Euro-Atlantic security.”
On 26 October, The Korea Times reported that top security officials from South Korea, the US, and Japan expressed their concerns over North Korean troops being dispatched to Russia. The National Security Advisor of the US, Jake Sullivan, held a trilateral meeting with the National Security Advisor of South Korea, Shin Won-sik, and the National Security Advisor of Japan, Takeo Akiba, to discuss the issue. The White House National Security Communications Advisor, John Kirby, stated that the three advisors had demanded Russia and North Korea stop these illegal actions. He added that they reaffirmed their commitment to address common regional and global challenges and promote security and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region and beyond.
South Korea: President Yoon supports the lethal weapon aid to Ukraine
On 24 October, The Korea Herald quoted South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol that the country might plan for lethal weapons aid to Ukraine as a counterstrategy in response to North Korea’s dispatch of troops for Russia. Yoon said: “We have consistently provided humanitarian aid to Ukraine. However, if North Korea dispatches special forces to Ukraine through its cooperation with Russia, we will consider providing support to Ukraine in phases and take necessary measures to ensure the security of the Korean Peninsula. As a fundamental principle, we have upheld the policy of not directly supplying lethal weapons, but even in this area, we may reconsider our stance more flexibly depending on whether or not the North Korean military is active (on the battlefield).” The Yoon government is now re-evaluating after South Korea's intelligence agency confirmed that North Korea has sent troops to Russia for training. South Korean Minister of Foreign Affairs Cho Tae-yul disagreed with the Yoon administration in favour of providing lethal weapons. He said: “In the current situation, I believe it is a necessary measure to express a firm stance on taking strong actions and demonstrate the will to respond decisively, to urge a withdrawal and prevent further troop deployments, whether merely announcing considering plans to provide lethal weapons could be interpreted as South Korea’s participation in the Russia-Ukraine war.”
North Korea: Blockades along inter-Korean railways
On 25 October, The Korea Herald reported that North Korea has been building new blockades along inter-Korean railways running along the eastern and western sides of the Korean Peninsula. A vice-spokesperson for the Ministry of Unification of South Korea, Kim In-ae, informed that North Korea had built barriers at the undermined sections of the Donghae lines through additional construction projects. Kim informed that there were indications of similar blockades being built near the Gyeongui lines as well.
New Caledonia: President Louis Mapou and the Government of New Caledonia meet visiting mission by Pacific Islands Forum leaders
On 29 October, Islands Business reported on President Louis Mapou and the Government of New Caledonia’s meeting with a visiting mission of Pacific Islands Forum leaders. New Caledonia’s independence claims have been marred by conflict since 13 May. It has claimed 13 lives and more than 2600 arrests, causing damage to private businesses and public structures. The Pacific Islands Forum has initiated a mission to meet with affected people on a three-day visit. After the meeting with the Forum Leaders, President Mapou said: “They noted they weren’t here to interfere in New Caledonia’s affairs, but rather because a member of their family is in difficulty – so it’s quite normal that the Forum would visit and say they’re ready to contribute to the de-escalation of conflict.” Mapou added: “I raised with them some of the obstacles and constraints, which are directly related to our political status – we aren’t an independent state that has the freedom to work on many of these issues that we must all address in the future.”
Indonesia: Naval drills with Russia
On 29 October, The Straits Times reported on the joint naval drills between Indonesia and Russia in November. According to the Indonesian Navy, the exercise will take place during 4-8 November in the Java Sea near a naval base in Surabaya. It stated: "It is a milestone bilateral exercise between Tentara Nasional Indonesia Angkatan Laut (TNI AL) and the Russian navy." Russia will send three corvette-class warships, a medium tanker ship, a military helicopter and a tug boat. This development comes after the recent appointment of the new President, Prabowo Subianto, who vowed to strengthen Indonesia’s stance in the global arena.
Myanmar: China’s warning shots at military fighter jet
On 28 October, The Irrawaddy reported that China fired warning shots at a Myanmar military fighter jet which flew close to the Chinese border while attacking the town of Namkham in northern Shan State. Namkham is controlled by the ethnic Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), a rebel group fighting against the Myanmar military. It was further reported that the fighter jet attacked the TNLA base and a village 1.6 kilometres east of Namkham with three bombs and the Man Wei Gyi neighbourhood in Kachin State with another four.
The Philippines: Tropical Storm Trami causes displacement and deaths
On 25 October, The Straits Times reported on the Tropical Storm Trami severely affecting the Philippines. Several people were displaced as the torrential rains caused widespread floods. Police director for the hard-hit Bicol region, Brigadier-General Andre Dizon, stated: "Many are still trapped on the roofs of their homes and asking for help." He added that in Bicol, the floods destabilized the area, causing landslides. In Batangas province, south of the capital Manila, around 43 people were confirmed dead.
Myanmar: Fighting continues in the Ann township
On 28 October, The Irrawaddy reported on the intensified fighting in Ann township. The Arakan Army ramped up its attacks in the town where the Myanmar military's Western Command and other military bases were located. The military refused to let people leave the township; 3000 of them remained trapped inside. The AA intensified its attacks after surrounding the Western Command near Ann town. The town is a strategic hub in the Rakhine State as it hosts a military command and 12 military bases, including the headquarters of Light Infantry Battalions 371, 372 and 373, and Artillery Battalion 374.
South Asia
Pakistan: Four terrorists killed in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
On 27 October, the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) stated that the security personnel neutralized four alleged terrorists in separate operations in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. The operation was conducted in the North Waziristan district, where an "intense exchange of fire" killed two Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants. A separate operation by law enforcement personnel in the Khyber district killed two TTP militants.
Separately, on 26 September, eight people were killed in a suicide bomb blast, while others sustained injury. Among the eight were two security officials and four policemen. The attack took place at a joint police and security checkpoint in Eidak, North Waziristan.
Pakistan: Convoy containing PTI prisoners attacked in Islamabad
On 25 October, an Islamabad police spokesperson revealed that about 20 armed suspects attacked a convoy of three police vans carrying prisoners near the Sangjani Toll Plaza in Islamabad. Four policemen were injured in the attack, while four attackers were taken into custody. The attack took place as the vans were transferring 82 inmates to Attock Jail. Six members of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI), including legislative members and four other party workers, were in the convoy. Other members included 34 police personnel and 42 members of Rescue 1122. Minister of Information Attaullah Tarar claimed that the attack was instigated by the opposition PTI to free the prisoners.
Bangladesh: 508 Rohingyas reallocated to Bhasan Char
On 29 October, 508 Rohingya refugees were transferred to the Bhasan Char Island as a part of an ongoing initiative. On 1 March, 1,242 Rohingyas were transferred. The recent relocation marks the 25th transfer to the island of Bhasan Char. According to Additional Refugee Relief and Repatriation Commissioner (Joint Secretary) Mohammad Shamsud Douza Nayan, in addition to the 508 refugees, about 393 Rohingyas, previously transferred to the island and had returned to visit the Cox Bazar camps, were sent back.
India: Anti-dumping duties on Chinese imports
On 23 October, Business Standard reported that India levied five-year anti-dumping duties on Chinese products, including isopropyl alcohol, sulphur black, cellophane transparent film, thermoplastic polyurethane, and unframed glass mirrors. The duties are USD 82 to USD 389 per tonne for the items. The imports of cellophane film in 2023-24 stood at USD 60 million with a USD 1.34 per kg duty. The Directorate General of Trade Remedies has instituted probes against six other products from China, comprising chemicals and electrical steel, among others, at the complaint of the local industries. India plans to have equal trade policies in the region while protecting its indigenous firms against Chinese low-cost imports.
India: Troop disengagement completed along contention points in Eastern Ladakh
On 30 October, the Hindu quoted Indian Army sources confirming that India and China completed disengagement in Depsang and Demchok in Eastern Ladakh. It also marks disengagement from all contention points after the clashes in 2020. All temporary and semi-permanent structures along the point were removed as part of the move. The report said that two sides will coordinate and resume patrolling in coming days. This comes after a general framework agreement at the diplomatic level and a detailed agreement at the Corps Commanders level was concluded on 27 October ahead of the BRICS Summit in Kazan, Russia. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping held bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the summit.
India: Three militants killed in J&K; Chief Minister Omar Abdullah comments UT status "temporary"
On 28 October, Indian security forces killed three militants involved in the Indian Army ambulance attack in the Battal area of Jammu. Although their affiliation is yet to be confirmed, police speculate their allegiance to the Jaish-e-Mohammad. Sources claim that militants entered from Pakistan-occupied Kashmir by crossing the Manawi Tawi River. This incident comes against the backdrop of the recent killing of two army personnel and two civilian porters near the Line of Control near Gulmarg the previous week.
On the same day, the Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah stated that no one should believe that Kashmir’s Union Territory (UT) status would protect the region “from the consequences of practices that go against the” integrity pledge. While referring to the governance model in Jammu and Kashmir, Abdullah stated: “I am acutely aware that we have unfortunately at this moment a rather hybrid system of governance. And I have a feeling, I am going to say it regardless of the consequences, some may feel they can exploit the system to their advantage, that they can find loopholes within this system that we have in Jammu and Kashmir at this moment.”
The Middle East and Africa
Iran: German-Iranian man executed on charges of “corruption on earth”
On 28 October, Al Jazeera reported that a German citizen of Iranian descent was in Iran. Jamshid Sharmahd, who also enjoyed US residency, was convicted in 2023 on charges of “leading terrorist operations” and “corruption on earth.” Particular charges included heading a “pro-monarchist” group accused of planning several attacks across the country, including a deadly 2008 bombing. Iranian media Mizan reported that the execution was finally carried out after due “judicial process and the final approval of the court decision by the Supreme Court.” Mizan referred to Sharmahd as “a criminal terrorist” who “was hosted by American and European countries and was operating under the complex protection of their intelligence services.” Germany has issued a strong condemnation against the act and termed the Iranian regime “inhumane.”
Iran: IDF airstrikes on military facilities
On 26 October, Associated Press reported that Israel conducted airstrikes against military targets in Iran. The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) stated that its fighter jets targeted missile manufacturing facilities and locations where Iran housed its surface-to-air missiles. Iran’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Abbas Aragchi, asked the UN Security Council to arrange an “urgent meeting” to condemn the attacks. It stated that Iran “reserves its inherent right to legal and legitimate response to these criminal attacks at the appropriate time.” Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian stated that Iran would "answer any stupidity with wisdom and strategy." Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei said the strikes "should neither be magnified nor downplayed." US President Joe Biden stated that Israel had informed his administration about the strikes beforehand. Despite Israeli threats of targeting Iran's oil and nuclear sites, the attacks targeted only military sites, indicating that the US was successful in dissuading Israel from any escalatory moves. The Israeli attack came as a retaliation to Iran's earlier missile attacks against Israel on 1 October.
Lebanon: Hezbollah appoints Naim Qassem as the new leader; Israel calls it "temporary"
On 29 October, Hezbollah announced its Deputy General Secretary, Naim Qassem, as the armed group's new General Secretary following the assassination of its former leader, Hassan Nasrallah, on 27 September. Tweeting a picture of Qassem, Israel's Minister of Defence Yoav Gallant stated that it was a "temporary appointment" which would be "not for long," indicating that Israel planned to kill him. The Israeli government said: "His tenure in this position may be the shortest in the history of this terrorist organization if he follows in the footsteps of his predecessors Hassan Nasrallah…There is no solution in Lebanon except to dismantle this organization as a military force."
Israel: Continuing IDF operations in southern Lebanon
On 29 October, according to the Times of Israel, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) conducted an airstrike on southern Lebanon’s Sarafand town, killing eight and injuring 21 people. Previously, on 27 October, the IDF struck southern Lebanon’s Sidon city, killing eight people and wounding 25 others. The same day, the IDF issued evacuation orders in 14 villages in southern Lebanon, asking residents to move north of Lebanon’s Awali River because Israeli forces would be operating in their residential area. Previously, on 24 October, Hezbollah killed IDF soldier Sergeant First Class Gai Ben-Haroosh in a gun battle in southern Lebanon. Ben-Haroosh was a reservist in the IDF’s 55th Paratroopers Brigade.
Israel: Airstrike in Beit Hanoun Lahia kills 55 Gazans
On 29 October, the New York Times reported that an Israeli airstrike in northern Gaza’s Beit Lahia killed 55 people. After being displaced multiple times by the IDF, 150 Gazans were sheltering in a five-storey building. The IDF said it was aware of reports about the civilian casualties and assured that it was "making efforts to avoid causing harm to uninvolved civilians" while restating that it had earlier evacuated the area in northern Gaza because it was an "active combat zone." US State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller called the Israeli attack "a horrifying incident" and stated that the Biden government contacted the Israeli government for clarification. Previously, on 28 October, Palestinian Civil Defence spokesperson Mahmoud Basal stated that over 100,000 Palestinians were left "under siege" in northern Gaza's Jabalia, Beit Hanoun and Beit Lahia because of the ongoing IDF operations against Hamas. Former Israeli military intelligence officer Michael Mishtein stated that the ongoing operations were part of a failed Israeli approach, where the IDF fights Hamas in a certain region, withdraws, and is forced to return because the armed group manages to regroup after the initial Israeli attacks.
Sudan: New wave of war crimes in Gezira state, says UN regional coordinator
On 27 October, the UN Coordinator in Sudan, Clementine Nkweta-Salami, said that a new wave of war crimes is being committed by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in the Gezira state. According to the BBC report, an activist group claimed that the RSF killed at least 124 people in several villages in the state throughout the week. Salami said that the attacks led to mass killings, rapes and lootings. However, the RSF has denied the accusations. Meanwhile, during the previous week, the RSF faced a major blow when one of its commanders, Abu Aqla Kayka, defected to the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF).
Chad: 40 soldiers killed in militant attack
On 28 October, BBC reported that at least 40 Chadian soldiers were killed in an armed men attack at a military base on Barkaram Island in Lake Chad. Although the assailants are unknown, the island is closer to the border regions of Niger and Nigeria, where the Islamist militants are active. Residents said that the militants belong to Boko Haram insurgent group.
Burkina Faso: Government putting civilians at “unnecessary risks” while fighting militants, HRW report
On 29 October, a Human Rights Watch report claimed that the Burkina Faso government put civilians at “unnecessary risks” while fighting armed groups in August. According to the report, at least 133 people were killed by Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) during the attack in Barsalogho village. HRW called on the government to prioritize the security of civilians while fighting armed groups. HRW’s deputy Africa director, Carine Kaneza Nantulya, stated: “The massacre in Barsalogho is the latest example of atrocities by Islamist armed groups against civilians whom the government has put at unnecessary risk.” (“Burkina Faso putting civilians at risk amid conflict with rebels: HRW
Morocco: France backs sovereignty claims over Western Sahara
On 29 October, French President Emmanuel Macron, during his visit to Morocco, supported Morocco's sovereignty over Western Sahara. The region on the north-western coast of Africa has been under dispute for decades between Morocco and the Polisario Front, a movement of indigenous Sahrawi community backed by Algeria. France has now joined Spain, the US and Israel in backing Morocco's claims. Macron said Morocco's claims were the "only basis" for a just political settlement. The visit ended with France and Morocco signing deals on energy and infrastructure, among other sectors, worth USD 10.8 billion, according to the AFP news.
Europe and The Americas
Turkey: Airstrikes in Iraq and Syria after PKK attack in Ankara
On 24 October, according to Al Jazeera, Turkey conducted air strikes against the left-wing armed group, the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), targeting 29 PKK-controlled sites in northern Iraq and 18 in northern Syria in retaliation for the PKK’s attack against Turkey. Although Turkey’s Ministry of National Defence stated that “all kinds of precautions” were taken to prevent civilian casualties, the Syria-based armed group, the Syrian Democratic Front (SDF), which Turkey claims is aligned with PKK, claimed that the airstrikes killed 12 civilians, including children. Previously, on 23 October, two armed fighters from PKK conducted an attack on the Ankara headquarters of Turkey’s state-owned weapons manufacturing firm, Turkish Aerospace Industries (TUSAS), responsible, among other things, for producing the country’s advanced F-16 fighter jets. The fighters opened fire at TUSAS employees and set off explosives, killing five people and injuring 22, which prompted the airstrikes.
Ukraine: Russian attack kills two civilians in the southern Kherson
On 26 October, Reuters reported on the attacks in Ukraine’s southern Kherson region. It led to the death of two civilians who were killed by a drone and an artillery fire. According to the regional Governor of the Kherson region, Oleksandr Prokudin, the area was constantly being attacked by Russian artillery, drones and missiles.
Russia: Advances in eastern Ukraine
On 27 October, The Moscow Times reported on the claims of the Russian army's advances in eastern Ukraine. The Russian military said its recent advance had led to the capture of a frontline village, Izmailovka village, eight kilometres north of an industrial hub in Kurakhove. According to the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation, the army units captured the Izmailovka settlement. The announcement comes after Russia’s claims of intercepting over 51 Ukrainian drones above the border areas of Russia.
Belarus: President Lukashenko supports the China and Brazil peace plan
On 26 October, Belta reported that Belarus' President Aleksander Lukashenko supported China and Brazil's attempts to formulate a peace plan to end the war in Ukraine. He said that China and Brazil tried to promote a "jointly developed plan" to end the war. He said that issues such as "territorial delimitation, cessation of hostilities and withdrawal of troops from the line of contact" would be prioritized at the negotiating table. He stated that Belarus would continue facilitating the prisoner swaps and humanitarian missions between Russia and Ukraine. He revealed that Belarus had regular contact with Ukraine and could convey things easily. Referring to the North Korean troops' deployment, he said that Russia does not require a third party to fight in the war. He emphasized that he did not believe these allegations without proof. He condemned the claim as an effort to escalate the conflict to allow NATO to send their troops and strike deep inside Russia.
Russia: Attack in the Bryansk region repelled
On 27 October, Russia Today reported that Russia repelled an incursion into the Bryansk region, bordering Belarus in the west, and Ukraine’s Chernigov and Sumy regions in the south. According to the Governor of Bryansk, Aleksandr Bogomaz, the Russian military, along with border guards and National Guard units, drove back an "armed group" that attempted to cross Russia's border with Ukraine near the village of Manev. However, the extent of the incursion and the losses are yet to be revealed. Bogomaz has not reported on any casualties on the Russian side. He added that the situation was under control. The Russian Ministry of Defence and the Ukrainian military have not yet commented.
Cyprus: Strategic dialogue with the US to tackle counterterrorism and illicit finance
On 23 October, the defence officials of the US and Cypriots launched a strategic dialogue to bolster security and address terrorism by training personnel from the Middle Eastern countries. The US Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs, James O’Brien, said: “It is a big moment in the relationship between our countries and to be part of this feels like being part of a historic occasion.” It has been speculated that there was a shift in Cyprus’s policy towards the US after the Russian invasion. Cyprus' Minister of Foreign Affairs, Constantinos Kombos, expressed the government’s commitment to partner with the US Department of Justice and the FBI to counter illicit finance and tax evasions. The FBI has been helping train Cypriot police to identify and prosecute the individuals involved.
Brazil: USD 30 million for dam collapse victims
On 27 October, mining companies BHP and Vale signed an agreement with the government of Brazil over the provision of nearly USD 30 billion in compensation to the victims' families of the 2015 Mariana dam collapse. The dam was a joint venture of both companies. The accident resulted in the death of 19 people and is considered Brazil's worst environmental disaster. Brazil's President Luis Inacio Lula da Silva emphasized that the mining companies should have taken preventative measures. The disaster released toxic waste, which resulted in the displacement of many Brazilians and poisoned local waterways. Although the companies established a foundation for reparations, many community members felt they were denied justice. Over 6,20,000 claimants have filed cases against BHP in the UK, seeking approximately USD 47 billion. Around 70,000 have filed cases against Vale in the Netherlands. Both companies deny their role in the collapse.
Venezuela: Opposition leader found dead under state custody
On 27 October, a Venezuelan opposition leader, Edwin Santos, was found dead after being taken into state custody. Santos co-founded the centre-left party opposing the President of Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro. He was detained by the state security services two days before his death. His death has been called a "political crime" by opposition leader Leopoldo López, who is in exile in Spain. He claimed that Santos was "Murdered." The Voluntad Popular party stated that there is evidence to suggest that Santos was tortured before his death. The party holds the Maduro regime responsible for Santos's death.
Issues
Climate Change: World heading to climate catastrophe, warns the UN
On 24 October, Politico reported that the UN had urged governments worldwide to take stronger action against climate change. A new report by the UN says that current government policies and actions would lead to a global warming increase of 2.6 to 3.1 degrees Celsius this century. The report warned that under the best-case scenario, there was zero chance of the temperature being limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius, which was agreed upon in the Paris Agreement 2015. The Executive Director of the UN Environment Programme, Inger Andersen, warned that the Paris commitments would be dead if countries do not implement them. Andersen demanded that countries make stronger Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and provide greater funding for measures to combat climate change. Additionally, she informed that a minimum increase of six times in investment, reform of the global financial architecture, and strong action from the private sector are required to reduce emissions. Another key point mentioned in the report was the G20, which includes industrialized countries like the US and Germany alongside newly industrialized countries like China, India, and Saudi Arabia, was responsible for 77 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2023. In contrast, the entire African Union accounted for just six per cent. Progress amongst the G20 is mixed; the EU is scheduled to meet its climate targets but other countries are not. Andersen urged global leaders to use the upcoming COP29 summit in Azerbaijan to ensure emissions were reduced.
About the authors
Akriti Sharma and Rohini Reenum are PhD Scholars at NIAS. Padmashree Anandhan and Anu Maria Joseph are Research Associates at NIAS. Femy Francis, Neha Tresa George, Sayeka Ghosh, Samruddhi Pathak and Nuha Aamina are Research Assistants at NIAS. Advik S Mohan and Sachin Aravind are Research Interns at NIAS. Ayan Datta is a Postgraduate Student at the University of Hyderabad. Manoranjan Kumar is a guest faculty at NCWEB, University of Delhi.
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Padmashree Anandhan
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Lekshmi MK
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Sayeka Ghosh
Govind Anoop
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Diya Madhavan
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IPRI Team
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IPRI Team
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IPRI Team
Dhriti Mukherjee
Torunika Roy
GP Team
IPRI Team
Dhriti Mukherjee
IPRI Team
Mugdha Chaturvedi
Dhriti Mukherjee
By young scholars of NIAS Course on Global Politics: Contemporary World Order and Theories. Compiled by Sayeka Ghosh.
By the NIAS-IPRI Course scholars on Contemporary Conflicts, Peace Processes, Theories and Thinkers. Compiled by Ayan Datta.
Vaneeta
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D Suba Chandran
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Rishika Yadav
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IPRI Team
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Amit Gupta
IPRI Team
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IPRI Team
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Femy Francis
NIAS Africa Team
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Jerry Franklin
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PR Team
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Padmashree Anandhan
Rishika Yadav
Sreeja JS
Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri
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IPRI Team
PR Team
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IPRI Team
GP Team
GP Team
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Jerry Franklin A
IPRI Team
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PR Team
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Shamini Velayutham
Sneha Surendran
PR Team
PR Team
PR Team
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GP Team
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Sneha Surendran
Heribert Dieter
IPRI Team
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NIAS Africa Team
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Rishika Yadav
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Jerry Franklin A
Rishika Yadav
GP Team
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Lakshmi Parimala H
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IPRI Team
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GP Team
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IPRI Team
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Jerry Franklin A
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Ankit Singh
IPRI Team
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Nithyashree RB
Bibhu Prasad Routray
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Jerry Franklin A
Anu Maria Joseph
NIAS Africa Team
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GP Team
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Padmashree Anandhan
Sneha Surendran
GP Team
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IPRI Team
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Jerry Franklin
IPRI Team
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NIAS Africa Team
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Anu Maria Joseph
GP Team
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Anu Maria Joseph
GP Team
Rishika Yadav, Sreeja JS, Nithyashree RB, and Melvin George
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Rishika Yadav
Padmashree Anandhan
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Devjyoti Saha
Indrani Talukdar
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Kasturi Chatterjee
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Amrita Purkayastha
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IPRI Team
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Padmashree Anandhan
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D Suba Chandran
D Suba Chandran
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Sethuraman Nadarajan
Avishka Ashok
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GP Team
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Madhura Mahesh
Harini Madhusudan
Avishka Ashok
Akriti Sharma
Padmashree Anandhan
Poulomi Mondal
Mohaimeen Khan
Padmashree Anandhan
Madhura Mahesh
Padmashree Anandhan
Janardhan G
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Padmashree Anandhan
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Padmashree Anandhan
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Padmashree Anandhan
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Naina Singh
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Amit Gupta
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Harshita Rathore
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Apoorva Sudhakar
Ankit Singh
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Sneha M
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Ankit Singh
Apoorva Sudhakar
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Jeshil J Samuel
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Anu Maria Joseph
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Savithri Sellapperumage
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Srikumar Pullat
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Samreen Wani
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Jenice Jean Goveas
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Aparupa Bhattacherjee
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Ryan Mitra
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Divyabharathi E
Apoorva Sudhakar
Divyabharathi E
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Gayan Gowramma KC
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Miti Shah
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Manushi Kapadia
Miti Shah
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Hely Desai
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Samreen Wani
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Ann Maria Shibu
Dhruv Ashok
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Harini Madhusudan
Jamyang Dolma
Divyabharathi E
Lakshmi V Menon
Jamyang Dolma
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Dhruv Ashok
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