NIAS Global Politics Early Bird

CWA # 1562
NIAS Global Politics Early Bird
Lebanon’s new President: Who is Aoun? Will he be able to address the mounting challenges?

Ayan Datta
10 January 2025
Photo Source: Reuters/BBC

On 9 January, Lebanon’s National Assembly elected Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) General Joseph Aoun as the country’s 14th President. Despite initially trailing in the legislature’s multi-stage electoral process, Aoun emerged victorious in the second round, securing 99 out of the Assembly’s 128 votes. In his inaugural speech, the 60-year-old army officer pledged to “uphold the state's exclusive right to bear arms,” and combat systemic corruption and sectarianism. In a tacit criticism of Hezbollah, Aoun stressed that the Lebanese State (and not the Iran-backed group) would remove the “Israeli occupation” from the country’s southern frontier.

The election of General Joseph Aoun as Lebanon’s President signalled a potential turnaround moment for the crisis-pronecountry, marking an end to over two years of presidential vacancy. 

Who is Joseph Aoun?
Born in Beirut in 1964, Aoun joined the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) in 1983 and became its commander-in-chief in 2017, following a distinguished military career. Although the Army General has positioned himself as politically neutral, the nature of his military operations has given him a reputation for being pro-Western. He was involved in LAF operations to expel ISIS and its Syrian franchisee, the Al-Nusra Front, from eastern Lebanon. As army chief, he is the USA’s lynchpin for implementing the fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, exacerbating his image as Washington’s preferred candidate. 

How is the President elected and what is Lebanon’s peculiar political system? 
Lebanon’s political system is based on the unwritten 1943 National Pact that became the foundation for the country’s independence from France. Centred around the theory of “confessionalism,” the system’s institutional design distributed political offices among religious sects based on their proportion in the State’s population. Framed by independent Lebanon’s founding elites, the system envisioned a power-sharing mechanism that would split important political offices between Christians and Muslims, aiming to address the insecurities of both communities by one unable to dominate the other. Under the resulting scheme of sectarian representation, Lebanon’s President must always be a Maronite Christian (which Aoun is), the Prime Minister a Sunni Muslim, and the Speaker of the national parliament, the National Assembly, a Shia Muslim. Parliamentary representation would follow a similar principle, with the 128-member Assembly evenly divided between Muslims and Christians, with communal electorates and sub-divisions for sub-denominations in both groups. 

The Lebanese system is vulnerable to political deadlocks, with the two-year stalemate around the Presidency being the most recent example. The resulting “immobilism” or paralysis in administrative and political decision-making has made Lebanon vulnerable to external interference, with foreign actors looking to secure their interests by backing favourable factions. Making matters worse, Lebanese politicians, frustrated with the stalemate-ridden system, have welcomed outside influence to break political deadlocks at home. Additionally, the sectarian representation model institutionalised ethnic and sectarian identities, discouraged cross-sect cooperation and forced sectarian leaders to prioritize political maneuvering over inclusive policymaking. The power-sharing arrangement was completely inflexible, leaving the system incapable of accommodating the rise in the Muslim population, which rose from 51 per cent in the 1950s to over 70 per cent today, and the exponential growth of Shia political power under Hezbollah since the 1980s.

What was the immediate background to the Presidential election?
Aoun’s successful electon was preceded by 12 failed efforts. Sectarian conflicts and foreign influence were chiefly responsible for the stalemate. Hezbollah and its political ally, the Amal Movement, blocked attempts by Christian factions and independent parties, who preferred anti-Hezbollah and anti-Islamist candidates. In the most recent failed attempt of June 2023, the Iran-backed party withdrew from the Assembly during the first round of voting when it saw that opposition candidate Gebran Bassil (former International Monetary Fund official, widely believed to be pro-Western) appeared to be leading. With the quorum disrupted, Speaker Nabih Berri, a member of the Amal party — a Hezbollah ally — refused to call a second session, leading to the present deadlock. 

In the 9 January elections, however, Hezbollah could no longer play spoilsport. Despite fielding Suleiman Frangieh — a confidant of Syria’s former President Bashar Al-Assad — in the first round, the Iran-backed party withdrew their nominee and eventually aligned with Aoun, who secured a second-round victory with 99 votes. With its influence diminished following its devastating war with Israel, the regime change in Syria, and Iran’s growing vulnerability to Israeli attacks, Hezbollah refrained from imposing a deadlock.

Is there an international support to Aoun? 
Aoun’s election was welcomed by the LAF’s Western partners, including the US, France and EU states. The Western and Gulf States allegedly ran a clandestine diplomatic campaign to support his candidacy, with Saudi sources claiming that American, French and Saudi diplomats had made financial assistance to Lebanon conditional on his victory. Post-election, US President Joe Biden was the first to make a congratulatory call to Aoun after his appointment, demonstrating his support. Israel and Turkey echoed Washington’s posture, expressing hopes of “good neighbourliness” and “regional stability,” respectively. Curiously, despite promising to decouple Syria from Iran, Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) has not commented on the situation yet. 

What are the challenges for the new President? 
The new President will face a daunting list of challenges in his six-year tenure. Aoun’s immediate challenge will be political. As President, he will have to resign from the military while securing the ceasefire agreement on the border. Additionally, he will have no navigate Lebanon’s fragmented political space, where Hezbollah — his chief adversary on the battlefield — still enjoys influence. Economic recovery will be his next hurdle. With the government paralysed, the Lebanese State was powerless to confront the financial crisis ravaging the country since 2019. Aoun will have to revive Lebanon’s depleting liquidity reserves, rescue the Lebanese Pound which has lost 98 per cent of its value in the past year, and address its double-digit unemployment, which makes its Muslim population pliable to recruitment by Hezbollah. Security challenges will prove most difficult for Aoun. With the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire slated to enter review on 26 January and merely 3 out of 60 occupied villages evacuated so far, Aoun will have to expand the LAF’s operations to implement the deal rapidly. Modernising the LAF, presently an underfunded and underequipped force, will be an additional challenge. The stakes are extremely high for Aoun. Should he fail, Hezbollah may rearm, and Israel may resume its offensive, leading to a re-intensification of regional conflict.


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July 2025 | CWA # 1748

GP Team

The World This Week #318
PM Modi’s Visit to Trinidad and Tobago & Ghana, One big beautiful bill, and Quad Foreign Ministers Meeting
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1744

Chittrothu Vaihali

EU-Canada Summit 2025
What is security and defence partnership all about?
Conflict Weekly
July 2025 | CWA # 1742

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly # 287-88
The 12 Day War and the Congo-Rwanda Peace Deal
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1738

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Thailand and Cambodia
What was the phone call between PM Shinawatra and President of Senate Hun Sen? What is the border dispute between the two? Why has this become an issue?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1735

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025:
Trump making Europe great again
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1734

GP Team

The World This Week #317
NATO Summit 2025 and Russia-Mali bilateral agreements
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1733

Ananya Dinesh

China and the Pacific Islands 
What was the recent China-PIC joint statement about? What it says, and what it means?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1728

M Kejia

G7 Summit 2025:
The Focus on the Middle East and Trade negotiations
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1726

GP Team

The World This Week #316
China-Central Asia Summit in Kazakhstan, and the G7 Summit in Canada
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1725

Brighty Ann Sarah, R Preetha, Santhiya M, Aparna A Nair & M Kejia

Operation Midnight Hammer: US bombs three nuclear sites in Iran
What were the three Iranian nuclear sites that were targeted? What are the B2 Bombers and Bunker Buster Bombs? What do these attacks mean? What Next?
Conflict Weekly
June 2025 | CWA # 1724

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #286
The Spiralling Israel-Iran Crisis, and the Dangerous Hunger Hotspots
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1721

Rizwana Banu S and Santhiya M

Who are the Afrikaners?
Why is Trump interested in the Afrikaner question in South Africa?
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1720

Lekshmi MK

New WMO Report on Arctic Warming
What are the social, economic and environmental implications of Arctic warming
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1719

J Yamini  

China’s EV Surge
What contributes to the rise of BYD
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1717

J Yamini

Gender Violence in Pakistan:
What are the larger issues in the Noor Mukadam case?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1715

Femy Francis

The US-China:
On Tariffs, Rare Earths and Visas
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1713

GP Team

The World This Week #315
The UN Ocean Conference in France and the US-China Meeting in London
CW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1712

R Preetha

The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1705

GP Team

The World This Week #314
Elections in South Korea and Poland I China and the Pacific Island Countries I Bangladesh Election Announcement 2026
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1703

M Kejia 

Sagarmatha Sambaad in Nepal
Kathmandu’s Global Agenda for the Himalayas
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1700

R Preetha

Ethiopia bans the TPLF
What does the TPLF ban mean for the Pretoria agreement? What next for Ethiopia?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1694

Aashish Ganeshan

The US:
Harvard vs Trump Administration
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1691

GP Team

The World This Week #313
China-ASEAN-GCC Summit I President Macron's visit to South East Asia I Trump Vs Harvard
The World This Week
May 2025 | CWA # 1690

GP Team

The World This Week #312
Elections in Romania, Portugal & Poland I UK-EU Summit
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1689

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine
Continuing Russia’s Aerial Attacks, despite exchange of prisoners
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1688

Ayan Datta

Gaza
The Humanitarian Crisis and Israel’s Renewed Offensive
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1685

Aparna A Nair

UK-EU Summit:
First step towards a reset
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1683

Aashish Ganeshan

Elections in Portugal:
The Rise of Chega Party and the Search for Political Stability
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1679

Aashish Ganeshan

US in the Middle Easr
Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1678

Gauri Gupta

China in Latin America
China-CELAC forum: Strengthening ties with Latin America and Caribbean
The World This Week
May 2025 | CWA # 1677

GP Team

The World This Week #310-311
China in Latin America and the Carribbean I Trump's Middle East Visit I Denmark as the new Arctic Chair
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1675

Lekshmi MK

Turkey:
PKK disbands after 40 years of armed insurgency
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1673

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine:
The Discussion in Turkiye and the Elusive Ceasefire
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1671

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

US, Ukraine and Russia:
Air attacks amidst a Minerals deal and Ceasefire Proposals
Global Politics Early Bird
May 2025 | CWA # 1670

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Singapore Elections in 2025:
People’s Action Party (PAP) Wins, Again
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1667

R Preetha and Brighty Ann Sarah

East Asia:
Tough Tariff Negotiations with the US
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1666

Padmashree Anandhan

The US-Ukraine
The mineral deal with the US
Conflict Weekly
May 2025 | CWA # 1665
Conflict Weekly # 280-81
India-Pakistan De-escalation I Ukraine Discussion in Istanbul I The Battle over Port Sudan I Disbanding of PKK in Turkiye I France-Algeria Diplomatic Tensions
Global Politics Early Bird
May 2025 | CWA # 1663

R Preetha

Canada Elections 2025:
What do the results convey? What next for Mark Carney?
Conflict Weekly 250th Issue
October 2024 | CWA # 1480

IPRI Team

This Week in History
July 2024 | CWA # 1413

Ramya B

Global Politics Early Bird
May 2024 | CWA # 1336

Femy Francis

This Week in History
April 2024 | CWA # 1275

Ramya B

NIAS Global Politics Database
March 2024 | CWA # 1251

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
This Week in History
March 2024 | CWA # 1246

Sivasubramanian K

NIAS Global Politics Database
February 2024 | CWA # 1226

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
The World This Week
November 2023 | CWA # 1148

GP Team

The War in Ukraine
October 2023 | CWA # 1091

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri

Issues for Europe
NIAS Pakistan Weekly
October 2023 | CWA # 1087

PR Team

The World This Week
October 2023 | CWA # 1083

GP Team

Conflict Weekly
August 2023 | CWA # 1049

IPRI Team

IPRI Quarterly Forecasts I Triggers, Trends, and Trajectories
July 2023 | CWA # 1012

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar continues to burn
The World This Week
July 2023 | CWA # 1009

GP Team

2022: The World This Year
December 2022 | CWA # 879

Padmashree Anandhan

The Ukraine War
2022: The World This Year
December 2022 | CWA # 872

Sapna Elsa Abraham

Europe: Heatwaves, Wildfires, Droughts, and Ice Melt in Alps
November 2022 | CWA # 838

Rishma Banerjee

Tracing Europe's droughts
NIAS Africa Weekly
March 2022 | CWA # 705

NIAS Africa Team

In Focus: Libya
The World This Week: 150th Issue
December 2021 | CWA # 630

GP Team

Europe in 2021
Pakistan Reader
October 2021 | CWA # 588

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

TLP is back again
NIAS Fortnightly on Science, Technology & International Relations
August 2021 | CWA # 528

STIR Team

Space Tourism
GLOBAL PROTEST MOVEMENTS
September 2020 | CWA # 337

Anju Annie Mammen

The FATF Meeting, February 2020
February 2020 | CWA # 235

Lakshmi V Menon

Science, Technology and International Relations
September 2019 | CWA # 162

Lakshman Chakravarthy N

5G: A Primer
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 71

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 70

Nasima Khatoon

The Maldives
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 69

Harini Madhusudan

India
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 68

Sourina Bej

Bangladesh
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 67

Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer

Afghanistan
United States
July 2018 | CWA # 47

Rahul Arockiaraj

East Asia
June 2018 | CWA # 26

Siddhatti Mehta