Global Politics Explainer

CWA # 1564
Global Politics Explainer
Ireland Elections and What's Next?

Nupur Priya
1 January 2025
Photo Source: BBC

Ireland general elections took place on 29 November 2024. This election will elect the 34th Dáil (lower house of the Parliament) and the next Taoiseach (Irish Prime Minister). Over 3.4 million people were eligible to vote in the Irish elections, the turn-out was 59.7 per cent. The razor-thin margins between the top three political parties have made this election one of the most closely contested races in recent history. These three main contenders are centre-right Fine Gael, a key player in the outgoing government led by Prime Minister Simon Harris; the centrist Fianna Fáil, a ruling coalition partner in the outgoing government; and the left-wing Sinn Fein, the largest opposition party. Ireland has a distinctive voting system, with 43 constituencies voting for electing a 174-seat parliament using proportional representation with a single transferable vote. The election results conferred third place to Fine Gael with 20.8 per cent first preference votes and 38 seats, second place to Sinn Fein with 19 per cent first preference votes and 39 seats, and the winner Fianna Fáil with 21.9 per cent first preference votes and 48 seats. Independents gained 13.2 per cent first preference votes and 16 seats while the social democrats gained 4.8 per cent first preference votes and 11 seats. The Labour Party gained 4.7 per cent first preference votes and 11 seats while the Independent Ireland, a new party, gained 3.6 per cent first preference votes and four seats. The Greens shockingly lost 11 seats this time, which was a part of the coalition government in the last term. 

Why was a snap election called?
A snap election was called for Friday, 29 November, by Prime Minister Simon Harris rather than waiting for the March deadline. At the beginning of this year, the left-wing Sinn Fein’s position appeared very promising, with the polls at 29 per cent. Sinn Fein was dominating as the opposition and capturing significant public support, but by 6 November, their position dropped to 18 per cent. The reason for this downfall is essentially their unclear position on migration; however, a series of scandals added to it. These allegations included misconduct, internal mismanagement and cover-ups. So, instead of working towards the elections, the party was stuck with damage control.

So, the ruling government called for a snap election, hoping to capitalize on two factors: the October budget by Simon Harris which delivered 2.2 billion euros in bonus and Sinn Fein’s collapse. This move was intended to extend Fine Gael’s record 14-year hold on power. But the move backfired as Sinn Fein gained one seat.

What are the major issues in Ireland?
Ireland has an acute housing shortage, which acted as one of the major issues that dominated the election. The cost of living is a huge concern for the voters, but recently, the former government recognized this issue and launched a 10.5 billion euros giveaway budget to ease the situation. 61 per cent of Irish voters recognized housing as one of the top two problems in the country suffering from high rents.

Healthcare is the other issue for Irish citizens due to low funding in the sector. A recent challenge of immigration in Ireland emerged where, for years, emigration has been prevalent. 100,000 Ukrainians, displaced by war, and thousands of other immigrants fleeing West Asia and Africa have arrived in Ireland. Asylum to these immigrants is a hot topic for elections due to violent protests demanding firm control against immigration. 

The prospect of reunification of Ireland with Northern Ireland is another issue in the country with varying opinions of political parties. Sinn Fein strongly advocated for reunification and a referendum for this by 2030.

Who could be the next Taoiseach?
The largest party with the most seats is Fianna Fáil, with 21.9 per cent. Therefore, most probably, the leader of Fianna Fáil, Micheal Martin will be the prime minister for the second time. Currently, the position is held by Fine Gael’s leader Simon Harris. The coalition agreement in 2020 between Fine Gael and Fianna Fail provided for rotating the position of Taoiseach, so Micheal Martin was Prime Minister for the first two and a half years, and then he moved on to become the foreign minister and Tánaiste (deputy prime minister). It is possible that the parties again agree on such terms because none of them have a majority. 

Which parties could form a coalition?
The total number required for the majority is 88. A deal might be sought for a coalition with a third party by Fianna Fail and Fine Gael. Sinn Fein’s leader, Mary Lou McDonald, is seeking a left-wing alliance with other leaders, but it will not be enough to make a majority in the Dáil. Her hopes of becoming Ireland’s first female Prime Minister took a jolt when her nomination received 44 votes. 110 votes were against her nomination to become the Taoiseach. The last term of the Dail saw a coalition of Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and the Green Party to form a government. But this time, the performance of the Green Party was rather disappointing as it lost eleven seats and remained with just one at three per cent.

Independents play a prominent role in Irish Politics, at times, being appointed even as ministers. Verona Murphy, an independent member of parliament, has been elected as the new speaker of the lower house. Coalition manoeuvrings are likely to be influenced by  independent candidates. However, the Fianna Fáil leader, Micheal Martin, specified during the early declaration of results, three policy areas where his party could coalesce around: enterprise, EU relations and housing. It is anticipated that Ireland might see a new Taoiseach and government when Dáil returns post-Christmas, on 22 January. 

What next for Ireland and the EU?
All three major parties are generally pro-Europe with varying degrees. Both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil have positive sentiments towards Europe, but they support Ireland’s neutrality in defence. Fine Gael is affiliated with EPP, while Fianna Fail is affiliated with Renew Europe. Although Sinn Fein is affiliated with The Left, it is more critical of the current EU structures and has been calling for reforms. 

For Ireland-EU relations, the stable coalition is likely to maintain a pro-European stance, which has been a hallmark of Irish governance.  

About the author
Nupur Priya is a Postgraduate student at the Department of Politics and International Studies, Pondicherry University.


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The Spiralling Israel-Iran Crisis, and the Dangerous Hunger Hotspots
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1721

Rizwana Banu S and Santhiya M

Who are the Afrikaners?
Why is Trump interested in the Afrikaner question in South Africa?
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1720

Lekshmi MK

New WMO Report on Arctic Warming
What are the social, economic and environmental implications of Arctic warming
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1719

J Yamini  

China’s EV Surge
What contributes to the rise of BYD
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1717

J Yamini

Gender Violence in Pakistan:
What are the larger issues in the Noor Mukadam case?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1715

Femy Francis

The US-China:
On Tariffs, Rare Earths and Visas
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1713

GP Team

The World This Week #315
The UN Ocean Conference in France and the US-China Meeting in London
CW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1712

R Preetha

The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1705

GP Team

The World This Week #314
Elections in South Korea and Poland I China and the Pacific Island Countries I Bangladesh Election Announcement 2026
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1703

M Kejia 

Sagarmatha Sambaad in Nepal
Kathmandu’s Global Agenda for the Himalayas
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1700

R Preetha

Ethiopia bans the TPLF
What does the TPLF ban mean for the Pretoria agreement? What next for Ethiopia?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1694

Aashish Ganeshan

The US:
Harvard vs Trump Administration
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1691

GP Team

The World This Week #313
China-ASEAN-GCC Summit I President Macron's visit to South East Asia I Trump Vs Harvard
The World This Week
May 2025 | CWA # 1690

GP Team

The World This Week #312
Elections in Romania, Portugal & Poland I UK-EU Summit
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1689

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine
Continuing Russia’s Aerial Attacks, despite exchange of prisoners
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1688

Ayan Datta

Gaza
The Humanitarian Crisis and Israel’s Renewed Offensive
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1685

Aparna A Nair

UK-EU Summit:
First step towards a reset
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1683

Aashish Ganeshan

Elections in Portugal:
The Rise of Chega Party and the Search for Political Stability
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1679

Aashish Ganeshan

US in the Middle Easr
Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1678

Gauri Gupta

China in Latin America
China-CELAC forum: Strengthening ties with Latin America and Caribbean
The World This Week
May 2025 | CWA # 1677

GP Team

The World This Week #310-311
China in Latin America and the Carribbean I Trump's Middle East Visit I Denmark as the new Arctic Chair
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1675

Lekshmi MK

Turkey:
PKK disbands after 40 years of armed insurgency
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1673

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine:
The Discussion in Turkiye and the Elusive Ceasefire
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1671

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

US, Ukraine and Russia:
Air attacks amidst a Minerals deal and Ceasefire Proposals
Global Politics Early Bird
May 2025 | CWA # 1670

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Singapore Elections in 2025:
People’s Action Party (PAP) Wins, Again
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1667

R Preetha and Brighty Ann Sarah

East Asia:
Tough Tariff Negotiations with the US
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1666

Padmashree Anandhan

The US-Ukraine
The mineral deal with the US
Conflict Weekly
May 2025 | CWA # 1665
Conflict Weekly # 280-81
India-Pakistan De-escalation I Ukraine Discussion in Istanbul I The Battle over Port Sudan I Disbanding of PKK in Turkiye I France-Algeria Diplomatic Tensions
Global Politics Early Bird
May 2025 | CWA # 1663

R Preetha

Canada Elections 2025:
What do the results convey? What next for Mark Carney?
Conflict Weekly 250th Issue
October 2024 | CWA # 1480

IPRI Team

This Week in History
July 2024 | CWA # 1413

Ramya B

Global Politics Early Bird
May 2024 | CWA # 1336

Femy Francis

This Week in History
April 2024 | CWA # 1275

Ramya B

NIAS Global Politics Database
March 2024 | CWA # 1251

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
This Week in History
March 2024 | CWA # 1246

Sivasubramanian K

NIAS Global Politics Database
February 2024 | CWA # 1226

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
The World This Week
November 2023 | CWA # 1148

GP Team

The War in Ukraine
October 2023 | CWA # 1091

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri

Issues for Europe
NIAS Pakistan Weekly
October 2023 | CWA # 1087

PR Team

The World This Week
October 2023 | CWA # 1083

GP Team

Conflict Weekly
August 2023 | CWA # 1049

IPRI Team

IPRI Quarterly Forecasts I Triggers, Trends, and Trajectories
July 2023 | CWA # 1012

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar continues to burn
The World This Week
July 2023 | CWA # 1009

GP Team

2022: The World This Year
December 2022 | CWA # 879

Padmashree Anandhan

The Ukraine War
2022: The World This Year
December 2022 | CWA # 872

Sapna Elsa Abraham

Europe: Heatwaves, Wildfires, Droughts, and Ice Melt in Alps
November 2022 | CWA # 838

Rishma Banerjee

Tracing Europe's droughts
NIAS Africa Weekly
March 2022 | CWA # 705

NIAS Africa Team

In Focus: Libya
The World This Week: 150th Issue
December 2021 | CWA # 630

GP Team

Europe in 2021
Pakistan Reader
October 2021 | CWA # 588

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

TLP is back again
NIAS Fortnightly on Science, Technology & International Relations
August 2021 | CWA # 528

STIR Team

Space Tourism
GLOBAL PROTEST MOVEMENTS
September 2020 | CWA # 337

Anju Annie Mammen

The FATF Meeting, February 2020
February 2020 | CWA # 235

Lakshmi V Menon

Science, Technology and International Relations
September 2019 | CWA # 162

Lakshman Chakravarthy N

5G: A Primer
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 71

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 70

Nasima Khatoon

The Maldives
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 69

Harini Madhusudan

India
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 68

Sourina Bej

Bangladesh
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 67

Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer

Afghanistan
United States
July 2018 | CWA # 47

Rahul Arockiaraj

East Asia
June 2018 | CWA # 26

Siddhatti Mehta