Who is Nicolás Maduro? And what next for Venezuela after his third term?

CWA # 1570

NIAS Global Politics Early Bird

Who is Nicolás Maduro? And what next for Venezuela after his third term?

Vaneeta
17 January 2025

Photo Source: Stulasiatimes

On 10 January, Nicolás Maduro took oath for the third time as president of Venezuela after a rigged election last year July. In his oath-taking ceremony, he said, “This is a great victory for Venezuelan democracy,” which is quite the opposite of what the opposition and people believe. On 28 July, Maduro was declared the presidential election winner by the government-controlled electoral commission, the National Electoral Council (CNE). However, unlike previous elections, they failed to provide detailed vote counts, and violence and protests erupted in the country.

A brief note on Nicolás Maduro
Nicolás Maduro was born in 1962 in a working-class Roman Catholic family. He was a bus driver by profession and later became a union leader. However, his socialist link goes to his student days in Cuba when he was a member of the Socialist League. In 1990, Maduro joined MBR-200, which is the civilian wing of Chávez's insurrectional military movement. His political career started in 2000 when elected to Venezuela’s national assembly. He served as a foreign minister and vice president in Hugo Chávez's government. He was a part of the Chávista political movement since the beginning; in 2013, Hugo Chavez died of cancer, and Nicolas Maduro became the president as Chávez's successor.

A brief note on Venezuelan politics
Venezuela was a Spanish colony, and had periods of democracy, authoritarianism, and military rule. After independence in 1821, there was political instability throughout the 19th and 20th centuries. In 1958, the country transitioned to democracy with the Punto Fijo Pact, in which major political parties agreed to have democratic governance.

In a significant shift during 1998, Hugo Chávez became president with the Bolivarian revolution to establish the "Fifth Republic.” His regime was part of the pink tide in Latin America, and emphasised on a socialist agenda, wealth redistribution, populist policies, extensive constitutional reforms, and firm anti-American foreign policy. However, it also divided the society between the middle class, his supporters, and the elite, his detractors.

When Nicolás Maduro succeeded Hugo Chávez, the Venezuelan economy heavily depended on oil and had a polarised society. Its economy plunged under his leadership when oil prices declined, and a combination of mismanagement, corruption and international sanctions brought economic crisis. Hyperinflation, food and medicine shortages, and mass emigration followed the financial crisis. Maduro has failed to carry the legacy of his predecessor, a charismatic and loved leader by the masses.

A brief note on Venezuela’s opposition
Venezuelan opposition are the parties and leaders who have opposed Chávez and Nicolás Maduro. For the 2024 presidential election, the opposition united to run for election. María Corina Machado was selected as the presidential candidate from the united opposition, which is called The Unitary Platform. However, in June 2023, she was banned from holding office for accusations of fraud and tax violations. Therefore, The Unitary Platform announced a new candidate diplomat, Edmundo González Urrutia.

Edmundo González Urrutia is a politician and former diplomat. He is described as a centrist who has supported talks with Maduro to find a solution. He even served as an ambassador under Chavez's government until 2002. He was seen as the family man who gave hope to people during the election campaign. After the July election, he was seen as the rightful winner. Moreover, the US, EU, Canada, Peru, Argentina, Ecuador, Panama and many more recognised him as president-elect after Maduro was declared the winner, calling election fraud and conveying that evidence supported González win. Following the arrest warrant issued on 2 September, he was given asylum in Spain. Since then, he has been living in exile, travelling as president-elect from exile to America to gather support.

María Corina Machado is seen as the leader of the opposition, and González himself refers to the same. Despite not being the presidential candidate, she has led the movement and is seen as a symbol of hope, courage and perseverance for millions of Venezuelans.

Nicolás Maduro’s third term: Issues and Challenges
Nicolás Maduro began his third term on 10 January after six months of election dispute.

His third term faces multiple challenges, starting with the economic troubles amid increased sanctions. The US has placed new sanctions on eight Venezuelan officials and announced a bounty of $ 25 million for the arrest of Nicolás Maduro. Later, the EU, Canada, and the UK followed us and imposed new sanctions on 15 officials.

Second is the worsening human rights crisis. The UN reported on 9 January that 16 political leaders and human rights activists were arrested before the ceremony. Protesters have been arrested and put on criminal charges. Also, recently, foreigners have been captured and accused of being mercenaries. It is believed that these foreign nationals will be used as bargaining power later amid strained relations with the international community.

Third is the worsening migration crisis. Around 8 million Venezuelans have left the country since Maduro took over office a decade ago. The neighbouring countries hosting these migrants, like Colombia, Argentina, and Brazil, are struggling, and it's putting strain on the political and economic conditions of the hosts.

What next for Venezuela?
Edmundo González Urrutia, who is in exile, has promised to return to the country when the time is right and take office. However, it is feared that he might become the new Juan Guaidón, who announced himself as president in 2019 and had international support but could not bring change to the country. Even if González formed a government in exile, it would not be able to have power within Venezuelan territory.

Establishment is a big actor; without its support, Maduro would not be in power. And the political opposition would not bring Maduro down with the military’ support. To keep the military happyMaduro has appointed its members to important positions.

Countries like China, Russia, and Cuba support Maduro. Many believe that there is an increase in Chinese influence inin Latin American internal politics. This will be something to see in 2025 with Donald Trump becoming the US President.

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Nithin V

King Charles's US Visit:

Emphasis on strong bilateral relations, democratic values and security cooperation

TWTW Note

May 2026 | CWA # 2087

Siddhi Halyur

Japan, Vietnam and PM Takaichis Visit

Exploring Strategic Sectors of Cooperation

TWTW Note

May 2026 | CWA # 2086

Aishal Hab Yousuf

UAE's Exit from OPEC:

Implications for the Middle East and the Energy Market

TWTW Note

May 2026 | CWA # 2085

Glynnis Winona B

US troop withdrawal from Germany:

Growing US-Europe differences and Challenges for Berlin

Conflict Weekly

May 2026 | CWA # 2084

NIAS IPRI

The US-Iran War, Week Nine I Escalating Violence in Mali

Review: Five Takeaways of RSF's 2026 Report on Media Freedom

CW Note

May 2026 | CWA # 2083

Brighty Ann Sarah

The US-Iran War, Week Nine:

Deadlocked Negotiations, Competing Agendas and Domestic Pressure

CW Note

May 2026 | CWA # 2082

Akshath Kaimal

Escalating Violence in Mali:

Between Ethnic Insurgencies, Jihadist Attacks, and Military Coups

CW Review

May 2026 | CWA # 2081

Jenin Raj S

Media freedom hits a 25-year low:

Five Takeaways from the RSF 2026 Index

The World This Week

April 2026 | CWA # 2080

Global Politics Team

Nepals New National Commitment I Japans New Defence Posture

Four Takeaways of the WFP's report on the fallouts of the Middle East crisis

TWTW Note

April 2026 | CWA # 2079

Aishal Hab Yousuf

Japans New Defence Posture:

From Post-War Pacifism to Strategic Recalibration and Autonomy

TWTW Note

April 2026 | CWA # 2078

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal's New National Commitment

Managing Consensus and Moving ahead towards a New Nepal

TWTW Review

April 2026 | CWA # 2077

Nithin V

The Middle East Crisis and its Fallouts on Hunger and Global Food Supply Network

Four Takeaways of the WFP's report on the fallouts of the Middle East crisis, April 2026

CW Column: Africa This Week

April 2026 | CWA # 2076

Anu Maria Joseph

Three years of War in Sudan, DRC-M23 talks in Switzerland and the collapse of the peace agreement in Tigray

Report Review

April 2026 | CWA # 2075

Preetha Renganarayanan

The US-Iran War Fallouts on the Asia Pacific, Energy Security and Supply Chains

Five Takeaways of the UNDP Report, April 2026

CW Note

April 2026 | CWA # 2074

Brighty Ann Sarah

Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire:

Asymmetric Terms, Fragile Truce and Israeli Occupation

CW Note

April 2026 | CWA # 2073

Akshath Kaimal

The US-Iran War, Week Eight:

A Fragile Ceasefire, Attempts to Control Hormuz and the Stalled Talks in Islamabad

Special Commentary

April 2026 | CWA # 2072

Anu Maria Joseph

Three Years of War in Sudan

Prolonged Stalemate, Humanitarian Cost, External Interventions and Regional Fallouts

Conflict Weekly

April 2026 | CWA # 2071

NIAS Global Politics Team

Three Years of Civil War in Sudan I The US-Iran War, Week Eight I Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire

Review of the UNDP Report on Military Escalation in the Middle East I Conflict Weekly Column on Africa

Conflict Weekly Special Edition

April 2026 | CWA # 2070

NIAS Global Politics Team

Peace and Conflicts This Quarter (JanuaryMarch 2026)

The US-Iran War I Conflicts in Africa I The War in Ukraine I China-Japan Tensions I Pakistan-Afghanistan Clashes

Peace and Conflicts This Quarter (JanuaryMarch 2026)

April 2026 | CWA # 2069

Padmashree Anandhan

The War in Ukraine

Expanding Drone Warfare, Russia's Strategic Patience and Ukraine's Diplomatic Outreach

Peace and Conflicts This Quarter (JanuaryMarch 2026)

April 2026 | CWA # 2068

Femy Francis�

China-Japan Tensions

Escalating Defence Posturing and Economic Decoupling

Peace and Conflicts This Quarter (JanuaryMarch 2026)

April 2026 | CWA # 2067

Anu Maria Joseph

Conflicts in Africa

Continuing Conflicts in Sudan, South Sudan and DR Congo, Security issues in Nigeria, and Political Instability in Madagascar

Peace and Conflicts This Quarter (JanuaryMarch 2026)

April 2026 | CWA # 2066

Akshath Kaimal

The Pakistan-Afghanistan Conflict

Recurrent Clashes, Defiant Taliban, Contesting Narratives and Emerging Chinas Role

The World This Quarter

April 2026 | CWA # 2065

Lakshmi Venugopal Menon

The Middle East (JanMar 2026):

The US-Iran War, Israel-Hamas Conflict and their interconnected fallouts

The World This Quarter

April 2026 | CWA # 2064

Anwesha Ghosh

Afghanistan (JanMar 2026):

Gender Repression, Leadership Rifts, Regional Realignments and Clashes with Pakistan

The World This Quarter

April 2026 | CWA # 2063

Ramya B

Russia (Jan-Mar 2026)

Assertive Military Posture, Attempts for an Economic Turnaround and Search for Partners

The World This Quarter

April 2026 | CWA # 2062

Himani Pant

Europe (Jan-Mar 2026)

Trade diversification & FTAs, Increased defence spending, Tightening irregular migration and Economic slowdown

The World This Quarter

April 2026 | CWA # 2061

S Shaji

Africa (Jan-Mar 2026)

Elections, Civil Wars, Militancy and Peace Initiatives

The World This Quarter

April 2026 | CWA # 2060

Nanda Kishor M S

India and the Neighbourhood (Jan-Mar 2026)

Continuity, Caution and Calculated assertiveness

April 2026 | CWA # 2051

TWTW Special Edition

TWTW Special Edition, 350th Issue

THE WORLD THIS QUARTER (Jan-Mar 2026)

Conflict Weekly

April 2026 | CWA # 2050

IPRI Team

The US-Iran War, Week Five: Widening Conflict, Houthi Involvement, and Trumps Renewed Threats

PR Commentary

March 2026 | CWA # 2043

Abhimanyu Solanki

Escalatory Airpower, Hybrid Retaliation, and Regional Security

Reassessing the PakistanAfghanistan Confrontation and Its Implications for India

March 2026 | CWA # 2042

Preetha Renganarayanan

Five Takeaways of the US Annual Threat Assessment (ATA) Report for 2026

March 2026 | CWA # 2041

Aparna A Nair

China-Vietnam 3+3 Strategic Dialogue

Defence, Diplomacy and Public Security

March 2026 | CWA # 2040

Femy Francis

China's Interests and Strategies in the US-Iran War

Why Beijings support for Iran is rhetoric and muted

March 2026 | CWA # 2039

Femy Francis

Trump-Xi Meeting

Why did Trump reschedule it? What does that mean?

March 2026 | CWA # 2038

Anu Maria Joseph

Sudan-Chad tensions and the Boko Haram attack in Nigeria's Maiduguri

March 2026 | CWA # 2037

Padmashree Anandhan

Massive drone attacks, Growing energy leverage and Drifting peace efforts

March 2026 | CWA # 2036

Brighty Ann Sarah

Continuing Israel-Hezbollah Confrontation

Expanding Israeli Military Operations and the Reshaping of Southern Lebanon

March 2026 | CWA # 2035

Akshath Kaimal

Five Takeaways of Human Rights Watch Report 2026

March 2026 | CWA # 2024

Lekshmi MK

The UN and the Iran-US War

UNSC Resolution 2817 between Clear and Unified Message and Manifest Injustice

March 2026 | CWA # 2023

Femy Francis

Chinas Two Sessions 2026

New Five-Year Plan, Ethnic Unity Law, and an Enhanced Defence Budget

March 2026 | CWA # 2022

Padmashree Anandhan

Continuing Strikes and Inconsistent Diplomatic Efforts

March 2026 | CWA # 2021

Anu Maria Joseph

Political instability in Madagascar and spreading violence in South Sudan

March 2026 | CWA # 2020

Brighty Ann Sarah

Continuing Israel-Hezbollah Confrontation

Attacks in South Lebanon, Beiruts Conundrum, and Tel Avivs Greater Goals

March 2026 | CWA # 2019

Akshath Kaimal

Rising Violence in Nigeria

Limited State Capacity, Multiple Actors, and a Complex Security Environment

March 2026 | CWA # 2018

Rohini Reenum

The US-Iran War, Week Two

Expanding Fronts, Shifting Goalposts, and Global Fallout

The World This Week

March 2026 | CWA # 2011

Tanvi Thara Harendra Jha

Canadas PM Mark Carneys India Visit

Resetting Economic, Strategic and Cultural Ties

Global Politics Early Bird

March 2026 | CWA # 2010

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal Elections 2026

The Rise of the New and the Fall of the Old

March 2026 | CWA # 2009

Sreemaya Nair

Nepal Elections 2026

Rise of a new leadership and Reset in political landscape

The World This Week

March 2026 | CWA # 2008

Global Politics Team

Canadian PM's India Visit I Nepal Elections and its Political Reset

March 2026 | CWA # 2007

Global Politics Team

The World Today #272, 06 March 2026

The World Today

Early Bird

March 2026 | CWA # 2006

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal Election 2026, Day One

Peaceful polling, with over 60 per cent turnout

March 2026 | CWA # 2005

Global Politics Team

The World Today #271, 05 March 2026

The World Today

March 2026 | CWA # 2004

Akshath Kaimal

The Forgotten South Sudan Conflict

Instability returns, with a fragile peace agreement, uptick in violence and limited international engagement

March 2026 | CWA # 2003

Yesasvi Koganti

PM Modis Visit to Israel

From bilateral ties to a special strategic partnership

March 2026 | CWA # 2002

Femy Francis

German Chancellors China Visit

Reducing trade deficit and recalibrating economic cooperation with Beijing

March 2026 | CWA # 2001

Preetha Renganarayanan

Six major takeaways on the economy, border and internal security and Iran

March 2026 | CWA # 2000

Rohini Reenum

The US-Iran War, Week One

Rapid Escalation, Regional Spillover, Global Uncertainty

Conflict Weekly

March 2026 | CWA # 1999

IPRI Team

The US-Iran War, Week One | The Return of Violence to South Sudan

Weekly Column on Ukraine & Africa

February 2026 | CWA # 1998

Anu Maria Joseph

Instability in Sudan

Response to the genocide call and the threats of a regional spillover

February 2026 | CWA # 1997

Padmashree Anandhan

Four Years of War in Ukraine

Continuing Uncertainty

February 2026 | CWA # 1996

Akshath Kaimal

Pakistan-Afghanistan Clashes

Another round of cross-border attacks

March 2026 | CWA # 1995

Global Politics Team

The World Today #269, 03 March 2026

The World Today

March 2026 | CWA # 1994

Global Politics Team

The World Today #268, 02 March 2026

The World Today

PR Commentary

March 2026 | CWA # 1993

D Suba Chandran

The US-Iran Conflict and Pakistan

Balancing Rhetoric, Regional Interests and Global Alignments

Conflict Weekly

February 2026 | CWA # 1992

IPRI Team

Pakistan-Afghanistan Clashes I Fours Years of Ukraine War

Weekly Column on Africa

March 2026 | CWA # 1991

Global Politics Team

Trumps State of the Union Address | German Chancellors China Visit | Indias PMs Israel Visit

February 2026 | CWA # 1990

Global Politics Team

The World Today #266, 27 February 2026

The World Today

Conflict Weekly

February 2026 | CWA # 1989

IPRI Team

Abu Dhabi Talks on Ukraine I Militant Attacks in Balochistan

CW Columns on Middle East and Africa

February 2026 | CWA # 1988

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine Peace talks in Abu Dhabi

Negotiations without a ceasefire or resolution

February 2026 | CWA # 1987

Akshath Kaimal

Continuing militant attacks in Balochistan

Expanding violence, Security-first response and Missing political dialogue in Pakistan

PR Commentary

November 2025 | CWA # 1966

Lekshmi MK

Pakistans Climate and Water Crisis

Five Questions on Challenges, Capacity and Policies

The World This Week

February 2026 | CWA # 1965

Global Politics Team

AI Impact Summit in New Delhi I Munich Security Conference 2026

Conflict Weekly

February 2026 | CWA # 1964

IPRI Team

US-Iran & Ukraine Negotiations in Geneva I US Military Deployment in Nigeria

CW Columns on Middle East and Africa

February 2026 | CWA # 1963

Global Politics Team

The World Today #255, 16 February 2026

Today in History

The World This Week

February 2026 | CWA # 1962

Global Politics Team

Japan: Sanae Takaichis historic win | Honk Kong: Jimmy Lai Sentenced

Regional Roundups: From East Asia to the Americas

Early Bird

February 2026 | CWA # 1961

Lekshmi MK

Sanae Takaichis historic win in Japan

What does it mean for domestic politics and regional stability?

Early Bird

February 2026 | CWA # 1960

Femy Francis

Jimmy Lai sentenced for 20 years in Hong Kong: Who, What, and Why

CEAP

February 2026 | CWA # 1959

Yesasvi Koganti

UK and China

PM Keir Starmers visit and the Recalibration of Economic, Strategic, and Domestic ties

February 2026 | CWA # 1958

Akshath Kaimal

India-EU Free Trade Agreement: Five Major Takeaways

The focus on expanded cooperation in defence, technology and critical minerals

February 2026 | CWA # 1957

Preetha Renganarayanan

The India-US interim trade framework

Tariff recalibration and Energy and Supply Chain realignment

February 2026 | CWA # 1956

Lekshmi MK

End of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START)

Erosion of arms control, Return of nuclear anxieties, and the New focus on China

The World This Week

February 2026 | CWA # 1955

Global Politics Team

End of the New START I IndiaUS interim Trade Framework I India-EU Free Trade Agreement I UK PM Keir Starmers China visit

Regional Roundups: From East Asia to the Americas

February 2026 | CWA # 1954

Nishchal Nath Pandey

Nepal Elections 2026: Political Parties, Gen Z Protests and Hope for a New Beginning

Conflict Weekly

February 2026 | CWA # 1953

IPRI Team

Abu Dhabi Talks on Ukraine I Militant Attacks in Balochistan

Weekly Columns: Conflicts in Africa and the Middle East

CW Column: Conflicts in the Middle East

January 2026 | CWA # 1952

Brighty Ann Sarah

US threats against Iran, and Phase Two operations in Gaza

CW Column: Conflicts in Africa

January 2026 | CWA # 1951

Anu Maria Joseph

Africa: Renewed violence in Ethiopia and a Jihadist attack in Niger

CW Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1950

Lekshmi MK

The War in Ukraine: The Trilateral Talks, and the Deadlock over Donetsk & Security Guarantees for Kyiv

CW Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1949

Preetha Renganarayanan

The United States: ICE Crackdowns, Rising Resistance and the Political/Legal pushback

Conflict Weekly

January 2026 | CWA # 1948

ICE Crackdowns and Resistance in the US I Trilateral Talks on Ukraine

TWTW Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1947

Brighty Ann Sarah

The Pentagons National Defence Strategy: Four major takeaways

TWTW Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1946

Preetha Renganarayanan

The Davos Summit 2026

Five Major Takeaways from The World Economic Forum

The World This Week

January 2026 | CWA # 1945

Global Politics Team

The Davos Forum 2026 Takeaways I The US Pentagons National Defence Strategy

CW Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1944

Brighty Ann Sarah

Syria: The State victory over the Syrian Democratic Forces

Conflict Weekly Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1943

Anu Maria Joseph

Another major kidnapping in Nigeria and Election announcement in Guinea-Bissau

CW Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1942

Lekshmi MK

Greenland: Trumps escalation-deescalation approach and Europes defence

CW Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1941

Brighty Ann Sarah

The War in Gaza: Trumps Board of Peace and the Challenges to Phase Two

Conflict Weekly

January 2026 | CWA # 1940

IPRI Team

Trumps Board of Peace in Gaza I Escalation/De-escalation in Greenland

TWTW Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1939

Lekshmi MK

Greenland: Trumps escalation-deescalation strategy and Europes defence

The World This Week

January 2026 | CWA # 1938

Continuing Tensions over Greenland

CW Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1937

Anu Maria Joseph

Instability in Nigeria: Intensifying domestic responses, and questions over Trumps intervention

CW Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1936

Brighty Ann Sarah

Protests in Iran: Continuing Stalemate and Shifting US Position

Conflict Weekly

January 2026 | CWA # 1935

IPRI Team

Protests in Iran | Instability in Nigeria

The World This Week

January 2026 | CWA # 1934

Global Politics Team

The US, Greenland and Trump's Claims

Conflict Weekly

January 2026 | CWA # 1933

IPRI Team

Protests in Iran, the US Military Intervention in Venezuela and Conflicts in Africa

NIAS Conflict Weekly | The World This Week

January 2026 | CWA # 1932

Global Politics Team