South Asia

CWA # 74
South Asia
Bangladesh: The Burden of Electoral History

D. Suba Chandran
8 January 2019
Photo Source: India Today

With winning for the third consecutive term, Sheikh Hasina has a greater responsibility to use her absolute majority to promote Parliamentary democracy

Bangladesh was the third country in South Asia to witness the general elections in 2018, besides Pakistan and Maldives. But unlike the other two countries, Bangladesh did not replace the incumbent government. Though there was widespread anger and popular unrest before the elections within Bangladesh as was the case in Maldives and Pakistan, unlike the latter, there was no regime change in Dhaka. Why? What does it mean for the future of Bangladesh?

 

An Expected, but Surprising Outcome

Of course, analysts of Bangladesh did predict the return of the Awami League for the third time in a row. The reasons for their prediction is simple – a weak opposition led by the BNP (Bangladesh Nationalist Party led by Begum Khaleda Zia), and the strength of the ruling coalition led by the AL (Awami League-led Sheikh Hasina) along with the official machinery in its dispensation.

But the results of December 2018 elections in Bangladesh are still surprising – Awami League winning 280 plus seats and the opposition winning less than ten for the 300 seats.

Though, a section forecasted the return of the AL, but not with this margin. And that makes the results surprising, even though it remained expected. Consider the following reasons. Unlike the previous election in 2014, in 2018, there was an opposition, however weak it was perceived to be. In 2014, the opposition led by the BNP boycotted the elections. As a result, the Awami League-led coalition swept through the elections. The AL itself had won more than 230 out of the 300 seats in the 2014 elections that were directly elected for the Parliament.

In 2018, the opposition – Jatiya Oikya Front took part in the election, unlike in 2014. The Jatiya Oikya Front had the BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami besides ten more smaller parties. The 2014 electoral result was expected in terms of the AL sweeping the same, because of the boycott by the opposition. But, the 2018 result was surprising because AL swept the elections, despite the presence of opposition.

The opposition in 2018, that took part in the election led by Kamal Hossain was not a paper tiger. Khaleda Zia may not have led the campaign; but the opposition had enough issues to place in front of the public and also grievances against the AL-led government and rule since the 2008 election.

Second, the electoral result is also surprising because of the popularity of the AL-led coalition, and the weakness of the opposition in 2018, when compared to 2014. Remember, the AL was contesting the 2014 elections as an incumbent. In the run-up to the 2014 elections, there were misgivings about the successes of government programmes. People were dissatisfied in 2014 with the AL performance despite the upward swing in developmental indicators. However, the AL won 2014 elections, primarily because they had no opposition.

But in 2018, the case was different. Before the elections in December 2018, there was popular unrest in the streets, especially amongst the youth. Though it started with youth, especially young students taking to the streets and protesting, many joined them subsequently. The AL government saw it as a conspiracy and used force to bring the protestors down. A section even blames the AL for letting loose the party goons on the protestors.

So, in December 2018, when Bangladesh was getting ready for the elections, the AL was certainly not a popular choice amongst the people. Then how did the party succeed in sweeping the elections? Winning the election by the AL with a close margin was perhaps expected; but sweeping the same, with the opposition being bulldozed thoroughly – was not.

So, the election result was surprising, especially with the margin in which the AL-led front trounced the opposition.

How did the AL manage to win the 2018 election, with such a lead? Again, AL returning as the largest party of the election was likely; but winning the same with such an absolute margin – should have surprised even the AL supporters. What were the reasons for the results that gave AL an absolute lead?

Two reasons could be explained. First, the disarray within the primary opposition – the BNP. The party leader – Khaleda Zia was placed under jail on corruption charges; her party could not find a good replacement who could rally the party and lead the charge against the AL, despite popular discontent against Sheikh Hasina. Tarique Rahman, Khaleda’s son had to stay in exile in London, following a prison term in another case in Bangladesh.

The above meant double jeopardy for the BNP. While for the Awami League, Sheikh Hasina could take forward the legacy of her father – the great Sheik Mujibur, the Bangabandhu. The above meant continuity for the Awami League; the opposite had happened for the BNP – with Khaleda in jail and her son in exile. The BNP could not take the mantle of the opposition; and none in the front, including Kamal Hossain, the leader who led in the absence of Khaleda could take the fight into the AL camp.

Second, the government did use force to ensure the electoral process favoured the ruling coalition. Was the opposition given a level playing field? While the polling may have been without any incidents of malpractices, the electoral process may not have been totally free and fair.

The pre-poll process was heavily criticised. Many in the opposition did complain about pre-election violence, where they were targeted and detained. One of the predominant complaints from the opposition was the violence unleashed by the AL workers.

The Human Rights Watch (HRW) observed the following on the electoral process: “repeated instances of arbitrary security force arrest and detention of protesters and political opposition figures, and acts of violence and intimidation by members of the ruling party’s student and youth wings. The crackdown, and the broad and vaguely worded laws that facilitate it, are contributing to an environment of fear. Institutions including the judiciary and the national election commission do not appear to be fully prepared to independently and fairly resolve disputes around campaigns and elections, such as on registration, candidacies, and results.”

The above HRW report also quotes Brad Adams, its Asia Director observing the same about the election: “The Awami League government has been systematically cracking down on independent and opposition voices to ensure that the ruling party faces no obstacles to total political control…Members and supporters of the main opposition parties have been arrested, killed, even disappeared, creating an atmosphere of fear and repression that is not consistent with credible elections.”

 

So What Next?

Now the elections are over and the AL has won the same, what next for Bangladesh politics?

Will the opposition boycott the Parliamentary proceedings and undermine the democratic process? The opposition may have a point on the nature of electoral process and question its freeness and fairness; but, can it afford to boycott the Parliament and derail the process?

Kamal Hossain, the leader of the opposition has already rejected the results claiming that the whole election was completely manipulated and should be cancelled. This demand is not likely to be accepted by the AL. The chances of another election under international supervision is less likely. So what would this mean for the opposition in terms of options?

Unfortunately, both the AL and BNP has created a negative culture within Bangladesh, that both parties when in opposition would want to boycott the Parliament, and when in power, would ignore the opposition doing the same. If the opposition today is going to boycott the Parliamentary process, it is least likely to affect the AL. Sheikh Hasina is likely to continue with or without the opposition in the Parliament.

 

So what is in store for the opposition?

The process may not have been totally fair, however, many agree that the polling was free. Even some of the external observers have commented that 2018 election was freer than the earlier ones. The polling was much higher; more than 65 per cent of the voters took part in the election. Despite the criticism about pre-poll violence, polling was relatively peaceful.

The opposition will have to play a positive role both within and outside the Parliament and not fall in the trap of recent electoral history.

On the other hand, the AL has a bigger responsibility. First and foremost, it has to ensure that the Parliamentary democracy succeeds in Bangladesh. And the AL would know this better, given its history since the days of East Pakistan. Parliament cannot succeed without a working opposition, and democracy cannot succeed without a functional Parliament. Sheikh Hasina has to be politically accommodative. Given the history between her and Khaleda Zia, vendetta politics is an easy option that Sheikh Hasina should resist.

The second great challenge for Hasina and the AL would be to improve the governance process. During recent years, there have been multiple cases of corruption, State highhandedness, arbitrary detentions and use of force. This is a political recipe for disaster. Improving governance would automatically impact the developmental process and economy. There have been many positives in Bangladesh economy when compared to other countries in South Asia; improved governance by the AL will help Bangladesh reap the benefits.

Finally, Sheikh Hasina should resist the temptation of becoming a democratic dictator. With taking the party to win the elections for three consecutive terms and with no opposition within Parliament, she should not get carried away. With all great intentions, the democrats in South Asia have done greater damage to democracy than the dictators. Sheikh Hasina should avoid treading that path. She has a greater responsibility today to promote Parliamentary democracy in Bangladesh.

The above is first published in the Rising Kashmir


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CW Column: The War in Ukraine
November 2025 | CWA # 1858

Padmashree Anandhan

This Week in History
August 2025 | CWA # 1801

R Preetha

28 August 1963
Martin Luther King's "I Have a Dream" speech and the Civil Rights Movement in the US
The World This Week
August 2025 | CWA # 1790

GP Team

The World This Week#323-324
The Trump-Putin meeting & the US-China tariff extension
TWTW note
August 2025 | CWA # 1780

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

Trump tariffs:
Weaponization of access to the US economy
The World This Week
August 2025 | CWA # 1779

GP Team

The World This Week#322
US tariffs on India, Brazil and Canada & the EU-US trade deal
This Week in History
August 2025 | CWA # 1778

Lekshmi MK

28 July 1914
Austria-Hungary declares war on Serbia, starting the First World War
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1770

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

Pakistan-Afghanistan relations:
Why the focus on terrorism, refugees, and Uzbekistan as the third partner?
The World This Week
July 2025 | CWA # 1769

GP Team

The World This Week#321
Indian PM Modi's visit to the Maldives I Elections to the Upper House in Japan
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1762

Lekshmi MK

Ocean Darkening: 
What is the phenomenon? What are its effects? And who are more vulnerable?
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1749

R Preetha

Africa as the Hunger Epicenter
Of the 13 Global Hunger Hotspots, 8 are in Africa: Five reasons why
The World This Week
July 2025 | CWA # 1748

GP Team

The World This Week #318
PM Modi’s Visit to Trinidad and Tobago & Ghana, One big beautiful bill, and Quad Foreign Ministers Meeting
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1744

Chittrothu Vaihali

EU-Canada Summit 2025
What is security and defence partnership all about?
Conflict Weekly
July 2025 | CWA # 1742

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly # 287-88
The 12 Day War and the Congo-Rwanda Peace Deal
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1738

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Thailand and Cambodia
What was the phone call between PM Shinawatra and President of Senate Hun Sen? What is the border dispute between the two? Why has this become an issue?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1735

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025:
Trump making Europe great again
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1734

GP Team

The World This Week #317
NATO Summit 2025 and Russia-Mali bilateral agreements
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1733

Ananya Dinesh

China and the Pacific Islands 
What was the recent China-PIC joint statement about? What it says, and what it means?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1728

M Kejia

G7 Summit 2025:
The Focus on the Middle East and Trade negotiations
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1726

GP Team

The World This Week #316
China-Central Asia Summit in Kazakhstan, and the G7 Summit in Canada
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1725

Brighty Ann Sarah, R Preetha, Santhiya M, Aparna A Nair & M Kejia

Operation Midnight Hammer: US bombs three nuclear sites in Iran
What were the three Iranian nuclear sites that were targeted? What are the B2 Bombers and Bunker Buster Bombs? What do these attacks mean? What Next?
Conflict Weekly
June 2025 | CWA # 1724

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #286
The Spiralling Israel-Iran Crisis, and the Dangerous Hunger Hotspots
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1721

Rizwana Banu S and Santhiya M

Who are the Afrikaners?
Why is Trump interested in the Afrikaner question in South Africa?
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1720

Lekshmi MK

New WMO Report on Arctic Warming
What are the social, economic and environmental implications of Arctic warming
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1719

J Yamini  

China’s EV Surge
What contributes to the rise of BYD
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1717

J Yamini

Gender Violence in Pakistan:
What are the larger issues in the Noor Mukadam case?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1715

Femy Francis

The US-China:
On Tariffs, Rare Earths and Visas
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1713

GP Team

The World This Week #315
The UN Ocean Conference in France and the US-China Meeting in London
CW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1712

R Preetha

The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1705

GP Team

The World This Week #314
Elections in South Korea and Poland I China and the Pacific Island Countries I Bangladesh Election Announcement 2026
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1703

M Kejia 

Sagarmatha Sambaad in Nepal
Kathmandu’s Global Agenda for the Himalayas
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1700

R Preetha

Ethiopia bans the TPLF
What does the TPLF ban mean for the Pretoria agreement? What next for Ethiopia?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1694

Aashish Ganeshan

The US:
Harvard vs Trump Administration
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1691

GP Team

The World This Week #313
China-ASEAN-GCC Summit I President Macron's visit to South East Asia I Trump Vs Harvard
The World This Week
May 2025 | CWA # 1690

GP Team

The World This Week #312
Elections in Romania, Portugal & Poland I UK-EU Summit
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1689

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine
Continuing Russia’s Aerial Attacks, despite exchange of prisoners
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1688

Ayan Datta

Gaza
The Humanitarian Crisis and Israel’s Renewed Offensive
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1685

Aparna A Nair

UK-EU Summit:
First step towards a reset
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1683

Aashish Ganeshan

Elections in Portugal:
The Rise of Chega Party and the Search for Political Stability
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1679

Aashish Ganeshan

US in the Middle Easr
Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1678

Gauri Gupta

China in Latin America
China-CELAC forum: Strengthening ties with Latin America and Caribbean
The World This Week
May 2025 | CWA # 1677

GP Team

The World This Week #310-311
China in Latin America and the Carribbean I Trump's Middle East Visit I Denmark as the new Arctic Chair
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1675

Lekshmi MK

Turkey:
PKK disbands after 40 years of armed insurgency
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1673

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine:
The Discussion in Turkiye and the Elusive Ceasefire
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1671

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

US, Ukraine and Russia:
Air attacks amidst a Minerals deal and Ceasefire Proposals
Global Politics Early Bird
May 2025 | CWA # 1670

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Singapore Elections in 2025:
People’s Action Party (PAP) Wins, Again
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1667

R Preetha and Brighty Ann Sarah

East Asia:
Tough Tariff Negotiations with the US
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1666

Padmashree Anandhan

The US-Ukraine
The mineral deal with the US
Conflict Weekly
May 2025 | CWA # 1665
Conflict Weekly # 280-81
India-Pakistan De-escalation I Ukraine Discussion in Istanbul I The Battle over Port Sudan I Disbanding of PKK in Turkiye I France-Algeria Diplomatic Tensions
Global Politics Early Bird
May 2025 | CWA # 1663

R Preetha

Canada Elections 2025:
What do the results convey? What next for Mark Carney?
Conflict Weekly 250th Issue
October 2024 | CWA # 1480

IPRI Team

This Week in History
July 2024 | CWA # 1413

Ramya B

Global Politics Early Bird
May 2024 | CWA # 1336

Femy Francis

This Week in History
April 2024 | CWA # 1275

Ramya B

NIAS Global Politics Database
March 2024 | CWA # 1251

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
This Week in History
March 2024 | CWA # 1246

Sivasubramanian K

NIAS Global Politics Database
February 2024 | CWA # 1226

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
The World This Week
November 2023 | CWA # 1148

GP Team

The War in Ukraine
October 2023 | CWA # 1091

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri

Issues for Europe
NIAS Pakistan Weekly
October 2023 | CWA # 1087

PR Team

The World This Week
October 2023 | CWA # 1083

GP Team

Conflict Weekly
August 2023 | CWA # 1049

IPRI Team

IPRI Quarterly Forecasts I Triggers, Trends, and Trajectories
July 2023 | CWA # 1012

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar continues to burn
The World This Week
July 2023 | CWA # 1009

GP Team

2022: The World This Year
December 2022 | CWA # 879

Padmashree Anandhan

The Ukraine War
2022: The World This Year
December 2022 | CWA # 872

Sapna Elsa Abraham

Europe: Heatwaves, Wildfires, Droughts, and Ice Melt in Alps
November 2022 | CWA # 838

Rishma Banerjee

Tracing Europe's droughts
NIAS Africa Weekly
March 2022 | CWA # 705

NIAS Africa Team

In Focus: Libya
The World This Week: 150th Issue
December 2021 | CWA # 630

GP Team

Europe in 2021
Pakistan Reader
October 2021 | CWA # 588

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

TLP is back again
NIAS Fortnightly on Science, Technology & International Relations
August 2021 | CWA # 528

STIR Team

Space Tourism
GLOBAL PROTEST MOVEMENTS
September 2020 | CWA # 337

Anju Annie Mammen

The FATF Meeting, February 2020
February 2020 | CWA # 235

Lakshmi V Menon

Science, Technology and International Relations
September 2019 | CWA # 162

Lakshman Chakravarthy N

5G: A Primer
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 71

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 70

Nasima Khatoon

The Maldives
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 69

Harini Madhusudan

India
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 68

Sourina Bej

Bangladesh
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 67

Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer

Afghanistan
United States
July 2018 | CWA # 47

Rahul Arockiaraj

East Asia
June 2018 | CWA # 26

Siddhatti Mehta