Conflict Weekly Special Essay

CWA # 1637
Conflict Weekly Special Essay
Myanmar: State of Perpetual War

Bibhu Prasad Routray
31 March 2025
Photo Source: Al Jazeera

On 2 February 2025, the State Administration Council (SAC), the governing body of the Myanmar military Junta, completed four years in power. However, real power has continued to slip away from its control. The intensity of the pro-democracy forces' military actions has been steadily increasing. Cornered, the Junta is determined to cling to power at any cost, even though its control is estimated to extend to only a quarter of the country. The brutal campaign against opposition strongholds continues to result in the deaths and injuries of fighters and civilians, including women and children. A long-delayed national election is being planned to be held only in areas controlled by the military to form a quasi-civilian government. 

Prevailing geopolitical factors favour the Junta and embolden it. Overt and covert support, along with tactical indifference from regional powers, have combined with a global detachment in dealing with the crisis in Myanmar. Developments in the first quarter of 2025 indicate that neither the return of democracy nor an outright victory for the Junta seems likely in the near future.

Major Developments during Jan-Mar 2025
Following were the three major developments in Myanmar during the first quarter in 2025. 

Civil War across the regions
A BBC investigation in December 2024 estimated that only 21 percent of Myanmar’s territory is under the control of the military. While major cities and population centres continue to remain under state control, the peripheries, especially in the Shan, Rakhine, Chin, Kachin and Karen states have slipped away. China-brokered peace talks led to the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) agreeing to cease hostilities in the Shan state. In January, the MNDAA signed a truce with the Junta in Kunming after the group’s leader Peng Daren was reportedly placed under house arrest by China. The Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA)’s peace process with the Junta, however, failed. In February, the group announced that no agreement could be reached. 

The Arakan Army (AA), which is the third constituent of the Three Brotherhood Alliance (TBA), along with the MNDAA and TNLA, continues its anti-military campaign along with the People’s Defence Forces (PDFs) in Rakhine and Chin provinces. In January 2025, the AA and its allies expanded the conflict to Ayeyarwady region. In February and March, the AA shifted its focus to Yegyi, Lemyethna and Thabaung townships in the Irrawaddy delta while carrying out attacks in Bago and Magwe regions. AA controls 14 out of 17 Rakhine townships and Paletwa township in neighbouring Chin State. 
 
In January, the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) announced that it will continue to pursue its military objectives against the Junta army during 2025 and that it expects fighting in Kachin State to escalate. KIA’s incremental gains in Kachin and the Karen National Union (KNU) success seizing in Junta outposts continued.   

A brutal military campaign
Each defeat on the battlefield has led the Junta to adopt increasingly brutal tactics. Setbacks during ground offensives have prompted a reliance on aerial strikes, which, without accurate intelligence, fail to differentiate between combatants and civilians. The Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) have historically lived within their civilian communities, placing these civilians directly in harm's way during military operations. According to the Assistance Association of Political Prisoners (AAPP), the Junta has killed 6,452 civilians since the coup.

The fact that the Junta considers the opposition ‘terrorists’, makes its campaigns, however brutal, a justified strategy to bring stability. The number of air strikes on civilians has risen year on year during the civil war, according to non-profit organisation Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED), with nearly 800 in 2024. Among the air strikes that caused maximum fatalities in the first three months of 2025 were: the air strike on 9 January in Rakhine state that killed 40 people, another strike on a temporary detention area that killed 28 people on 18 January in Rakhine state;  killing of 12 people in Letpanhla village, around 60 kilometres north of the country's second biggest city of Mandalay on 14 March; and killing of 11 people including a doctor and his wife in an airstrike on Hnan Khar in the western region of Magway on 22 March.

Preparations for the National Elections
After a botched-up attempt to carry out a national census between October and December 2024, that threw in extremely questionable data, the Junta is preparing to hold national elections. In March, Junta chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing announced that elections could be held in December 2025 or January 2026. For the military, a potential vote will be a return to democratic norms, albeit riding on the shoulders of political entities that share deep connections with the military. For the opposition forces, elections are merely an attempt to legitimise the illegitimate regime that seized power in February 2021. They have vowed to disrupt any process that keeps the generals in power through proxies.
    
In January, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) categorically said that peace and not elections should be the priority for the Junta. The latter acknowledges the challenges posed by the opposition and the necessity of at least a semblance of peace and stability before the elections are held. However, in the absence of any reconciliation move, the peace it wishes to establish is akin to the tranquillity that prevails in a graveyard. In February, an announcement to extend the state of emergency by another six months was made by the SAC.    

II
Issues

In the months following the coup, key issues such as the restoration of democracy, the release of political prisoners, and the cessation of violence against the pro-democracy camp by the Junta became the dominant narrative in Myanmar. The ability of the pro-democracy camp not only to resist the violence of the Junta but to launch a wave of counterviolence shifted the narrative to the possible collapse of the Junta. However, it is possible to argue the issues that currently dominate the narrative on Myanmar are the following three.

Longevity of Conflict
Conflicts are generally expected to be short-lived. While prolonged conflicts are not uncommon around the world, the ongoing civil war in Myanmar has surprised even the most avid observers of the country. Initially, the swift victories of the NUG led to expectations of an early triumph. However, the Junta has managed to maintain its grip on power by launching a brutal offensive against its own people. This situation has resulted in a deadlock, as the Junta, despite controlling a limited area that shrinks incrementally, shows no signs of giving up. Meanwhile, the NUG remains optimistic, encouraged by the military successes of EAOs and PDFs, and is determined to continue its armed campaign to shift the momentum in its favour. Its success in establishing a reliable supply chain of logistics to sustain its efforts remains at the heart of such prolonged conflict. These contrasting ‘perceptions of winnability’ can perpetuate the ongoing civil war. 

Perception of Unwinnability: 
The likelihood of reaching a negotiated resolution to the conflict remains extremely low unless the Junta starts losing control over more territory, including urban areas. This scenario does not seem probable in the near future, given the Junta's access to advanced weapon systems and its casual willingness to use them against the opposition. Despite losing some territory and facing a rather embarrassing military campaign, the Junta remains largely unified, and an internal collapse leading to a change in leadership is also unlikely. Therefore, external mediation may be the only viable option for the conflicting parties to consider negotiating. However, for such mediation to be successful, a “perception of un-winnability” must develop within either of the parties involved in the conflict.

 External Power Centres: 
The ongoing civil war’s escalation as well as longevity has largely been sustained by external powers who support the Junta and a few others who covertly aid the NUG. Despite openly declaring that it abhors civil war and wants stability in Myanmar, China’s meddling has been selective and largely in favour of the Junta. The latter also benefits from a sustained supply of weapons as well as morale-boosting diplomatic engagement by a host of other countries. As the civil war prolongs and the intensity of the conflict deepens, the role of external actors is likely to grow as well. 

III
Implications

Myanmar’s current condition corresponds to any country under a prolonged spell of conflict. The civil war has had inexplicable costs on the population, especially those living in areas under attacks by the military. The resultant humanitarian crisis has unfolded in a number of ways and continues to do so as the war intensifies. Within that broad parameter, three following implications of the civil war pertaining to the transformation of the state can be identified.

The Rise of a Self-Preserving State
While self-preservation is a fundamental goal for all states, the Junta has been limited to making it their only priority, which negatively impacts their effectiveness as a governing body. Every action taken by the State Administration Council (SAC) is focused on preventing territorial loss and inflicting damage on groups and individuals associated with the NUG. As a consequence, the SAC has largely failed to restore Myanmar’s economy, initiate socio-economic activities, and stabilize the country.

Rise of a military-industrial complex
Wars bring smiles to the faces of the arms manufacturers.  Such smiles linger in case of a protracted war. A significant amount of arms and weapons, primarily from Russia, China, Singapore, India and Thailand, find their way into Myanmar through a network of state-entities, manufacturing companies, and private players. A large number of arms and drones are also manufactured within Myanmar to sustain the momentum of the war. With the growing sophistication of the attacks by the opposition, the Junta is constrained to spend valuable resources of the state on defence. Since the 2021 coup, the Junta has tripled its defence budget from 1.746 trillion kyats to 5.635 trillion kyats (US$2.68 billion) by 2023. Min Aung Hlaing has committed to hike it further. This is reminiscent of a military-industrial complex when the primary need of a threatened state is fulfilled by a complex network whose ultimate intention is not to end the conflict, but to sustain it.

Rise of a Narco-State
The Junta’s focus on survival and the financial needs of various EAOs are making opium cultivation and the production of synthetic drugs increasingly attractive. With the Taliban reducing poppy cultivation in Afghanistan by 95%, Myanmar has become the world's largest opiate-producing country, following a steady increase since 2021. The decline in supply from Afghanistan has caused market prices for opium to rise. Traditionally, both the military and EAOs have benefited from the narcotics trade, and this dynamic is unlikely to change as the cash-strapped Junta and the EAOs seek new sources of funding. The emergence of a narco-state has serious implications for regional countries and the world at large.

About the Author
Dr Bibhu Prasad Routray is Director, Mantraya Institute for Strategic Studies (MISS), Goa.


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December 2025 | CWA # 1930

Aparna A Nair

State of Global Politics 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1924

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025
State of Global Politics 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1914

Preetha Renganarayanan

State of Global Politics 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1913

Rohini Reenum

State of Global Politics 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1912

Lekshmi MK

State of Global Politics 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1911

Swati Sood

State of Global Politics 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1905

Femy Francis

State of Peace and Conflict 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1902

Brighty Ann Sarah

State of Peace and Conflict 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1893

Lekshmi MK

State of Peace and Conflict 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1889

Femy Francis

State of Peace and Conflict 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1881

Sunidhi Sampige

China Reader
December 2025 | CWA # 1864

Femy Francis

Ten Takeaways of a SCMP Interview with a former PLA Colonel
TWTW Note
December 2025 | CWA # 1861

Femy Francis

China Reader
CW Column: The Conflicts in The Middle East
November 2025 | CWA # 1859

Brighty Ann Sarah

CW Column: The War in Ukraine
November 2025 | CWA # 1858

Padmashree Anandhan

This Week in History
August 2025 | CWA # 1801

R Preetha

28 August 1963
Martin Luther King's "I Have a Dream" speech and the Civil Rights Movement in the US
The World This Week
August 2025 | CWA # 1790

GP Team

The World This Week#323-324
The Trump-Putin meeting & the US-China tariff extension
TWTW note
August 2025 | CWA # 1780

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

Trump tariffs:
Weaponization of access to the US economy
The World This Week
August 2025 | CWA # 1779

GP Team

The World This Week#322
US tariffs on India, Brazil and Canada & the EU-US trade deal
This Week in History
August 2025 | CWA # 1778

Lekshmi MK

28 July 1914
Austria-Hungary declares war on Serbia, starting the First World War
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1770

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

Pakistan-Afghanistan relations:
Why the focus on terrorism, refugees, and Uzbekistan as the third partner?
The World This Week
July 2025 | CWA # 1769

GP Team

The World This Week#321
Indian PM Modi's visit to the Maldives I Elections to the Upper House in Japan
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1762

Lekshmi MK

Ocean Darkening: 
What is the phenomenon? What are its effects? And who are more vulnerable?
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1749

R Preetha

Africa as the Hunger Epicenter
Of the 13 Global Hunger Hotspots, 8 are in Africa: Five reasons why
The World This Week
July 2025 | CWA # 1748

GP Team

The World This Week #318
PM Modi’s Visit to Trinidad and Tobago & Ghana, One big beautiful bill, and Quad Foreign Ministers Meeting
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1744

Chittrothu Vaihali

EU-Canada Summit 2025
What is security and defence partnership all about?
Conflict Weekly
July 2025 | CWA # 1742

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly # 287-88
The 12 Day War and the Congo-Rwanda Peace Deal
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1738

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Thailand and Cambodia
What was the phone call between PM Shinawatra and President of Senate Hun Sen? What is the border dispute between the two? Why has this become an issue?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1735

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025:
Trump making Europe great again
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1734

GP Team

The World This Week #317
NATO Summit 2025 and Russia-Mali bilateral agreements
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1733

Ananya Dinesh

China and the Pacific Islands 
What was the recent China-PIC joint statement about? What it says, and what it means?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1728

M Kejia

G7 Summit 2025:
The Focus on the Middle East and Trade negotiations
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1726

GP Team

The World This Week #316
China-Central Asia Summit in Kazakhstan, and the G7 Summit in Canada
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1725

Brighty Ann Sarah, R Preetha, Santhiya M, Aparna A Nair & M Kejia

Operation Midnight Hammer: US bombs three nuclear sites in Iran
What were the three Iranian nuclear sites that were targeted? What are the B2 Bombers and Bunker Buster Bombs? What do these attacks mean? What Next?
Conflict Weekly
June 2025 | CWA # 1724

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #286
The Spiralling Israel-Iran Crisis, and the Dangerous Hunger Hotspots
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1721

Rizwana Banu S and Santhiya M

Who are the Afrikaners?
Why is Trump interested in the Afrikaner question in South Africa?
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1720

Lekshmi MK

New WMO Report on Arctic Warming
What are the social, economic and environmental implications of Arctic warming
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1719

J Yamini  

China’s EV Surge
What contributes to the rise of BYD
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1717

J Yamini

Gender Violence in Pakistan:
What are the larger issues in the Noor Mukadam case?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1715

Femy Francis

The US-China:
On Tariffs, Rare Earths and Visas
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1713

GP Team

The World This Week #315
The UN Ocean Conference in France and the US-China Meeting in London
CW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1712

R Preetha

The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1705

GP Team

The World This Week #314
Elections in South Korea and Poland I China and the Pacific Island Countries I Bangladesh Election Announcement 2026
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1703

M Kejia 

Sagarmatha Sambaad in Nepal
Kathmandu’s Global Agenda for the Himalayas
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1700

R Preetha

Ethiopia bans the TPLF
What does the TPLF ban mean for the Pretoria agreement? What next for Ethiopia?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1694

Aashish Ganeshan

The US:
Harvard vs Trump Administration
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1691

GP Team

The World This Week #313
China-ASEAN-GCC Summit I President Macron's visit to South East Asia I Trump Vs Harvard
The World This Week
May 2025 | CWA # 1690

GP Team

The World This Week #312
Elections in Romania, Portugal & Poland I UK-EU Summit
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1689

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine
Continuing Russia’s Aerial Attacks, despite exchange of prisoners
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1688

Ayan Datta

Gaza
The Humanitarian Crisis and Israel’s Renewed Offensive
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1685

Aparna A Nair

UK-EU Summit:
First step towards a reset
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1683

Aashish Ganeshan

Elections in Portugal:
The Rise of Chega Party and the Search for Political Stability
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1679

Aashish Ganeshan

US in the Middle Easr
Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1678

Gauri Gupta

China in Latin America
China-CELAC forum: Strengthening ties with Latin America and Caribbean
The World This Week
May 2025 | CWA # 1677

GP Team

The World This Week #310-311
China in Latin America and the Carribbean I Trump's Middle East Visit I Denmark as the new Arctic Chair
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1675

Lekshmi MK

Turkey:
PKK disbands after 40 years of armed insurgency
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1673

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine:
The Discussion in Turkiye and the Elusive Ceasefire
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1671

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

US, Ukraine and Russia:
Air attacks amidst a Minerals deal and Ceasefire Proposals
Global Politics Early Bird
May 2025 | CWA # 1670

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Singapore Elections in 2025:
People’s Action Party (PAP) Wins, Again
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1667

R Preetha and Brighty Ann Sarah

East Asia:
Tough Tariff Negotiations with the US
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1666

Padmashree Anandhan

The US-Ukraine
The mineral deal with the US
Conflict Weekly
May 2025 | CWA # 1665
Conflict Weekly # 280-81
India-Pakistan De-escalation I Ukraine Discussion in Istanbul I The Battle over Port Sudan I Disbanding of PKK in Turkiye I France-Algeria Diplomatic Tensions
Global Politics Early Bird
May 2025 | CWA # 1663

R Preetha

Canada Elections 2025:
What do the results convey? What next for Mark Carney?
Conflict Weekly 250th Issue
October 2024 | CWA # 1480

IPRI Team

This Week in History
July 2024 | CWA # 1413

Ramya B

Global Politics Early Bird
May 2024 | CWA # 1336

Femy Francis

This Week in History
April 2024 | CWA # 1275

Ramya B

NIAS Global Politics Database
March 2024 | CWA # 1251

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
This Week in History
March 2024 | CWA # 1246

Sivasubramanian K

NIAS Global Politics Database
February 2024 | CWA # 1226

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
The World This Week
November 2023 | CWA # 1148

GP Team

The War in Ukraine
October 2023 | CWA # 1091

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri

Issues for Europe
NIAS Pakistan Weekly
October 2023 | CWA # 1087

PR Team

The World This Week
October 2023 | CWA # 1083

GP Team

Conflict Weekly
August 2023 | CWA # 1049

IPRI Team

IPRI Quarterly Forecasts I Triggers, Trends, and Trajectories
July 2023 | CWA # 1012

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar continues to burn
The World This Week
July 2023 | CWA # 1009

GP Team

2022: The World This Year
December 2022 | CWA # 879

Padmashree Anandhan

The Ukraine War
2022: The World This Year
December 2022 | CWA # 872

Sapna Elsa Abraham

Europe: Heatwaves, Wildfires, Droughts, and Ice Melt in Alps
November 2022 | CWA # 838

Rishma Banerjee

Tracing Europe's droughts
NIAS Africa Weekly
March 2022 | CWA # 705

NIAS Africa Team

In Focus: Libya
The World This Week: 150th Issue
December 2021 | CWA # 630

GP Team

Europe in 2021
Pakistan Reader
October 2021 | CWA # 588

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

TLP is back again
NIAS Fortnightly on Science, Technology & International Relations
August 2021 | CWA # 528

STIR Team

Space Tourism
GLOBAL PROTEST MOVEMENTS
September 2020 | CWA # 337

Anju Annie Mammen

The FATF Meeting, February 2020
February 2020 | CWA # 235

Lakshmi V Menon

Science, Technology and International Relations
September 2019 | CWA # 162

Lakshman Chakravarthy N

5G: A Primer
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 71

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 70

Nasima Khatoon

The Maldives
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 69

Harini Madhusudan

India
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 68

Sourina Bej

Bangladesh
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 67

Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer

Afghanistan
United States
July 2018 | CWA # 47

Rahul Arockiaraj

East Asia
June 2018 | CWA # 26

Siddhatti Mehta