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Anu Maria Joseph
14 August 2025 |
In the news
On 12 August, the DR Congo forces accused Rwanda-backed M23 rebels of carrying out several attacks in eastern Congo. The Congolese army stated that the group violated the agreements signed in Washington and Doha and warned of a response to the provocation.
On 11 August, M23 accused Congolese forces of mobilising troops and violating the terms of the declaration of principles signed on 19 July in Doha.
On the same day, a rebel leader told Reuters that the group would not go to Doha on 18 August for the final deal talks "until Kinshasa begins to respect the declaration of principles, which provides for the release of our detained members."
On 12 August, Congolese army spokesperson Sylrain Ekenge stated that M23's "almost daily" attacks are an "intentional and manifest violation" of the declaration of principles signed in Doha.
Issues at large
First, a brief note on the recent peace deals in Washington and Doha. DRC and Rwanda signed a peace deal brokered by the US in Washington on 27 June, and to a cessation of hostilities and respect for the territorial integrity, marking an end to the violent conflict in eastern DRC. The deal also included disengagement, disarmament and conditional integration of all armed groups supported by DRC and Rwanda in the region. The M23 group, although the main actor in the conflict, was not included during the Washington talks. On 19 July, in Doha, the DRC and M23 signed a ceasefire agreement and committed to a comprehensive peace deal in August. As part of the ceasefire deal, M23 demanded the release of its captured fighters, and Congo demanded the withdrawal of the troops from the regions it had seized.
Second, the challenges of the peace deal and the ceasefire. First is holding, but the second is fragile. DRC and Rwanda agreed to the terms of economic cooperation in several sectors on 2 August, a major move towards delivering the peace deal. The economic integration signalled the commitment to the peace deal. Meanwhile, the ceasefire between M23 and DRC appears to be fragile. Despite reaching the deadline to sign the comprehensive peace agreement between M23 and DRC, neither side has achieved the terms of the ceasefire deal. Neither DRC has released M23 prisoners nor has M23 withdrawn from the captured territories. M23 has resumed attacks against pro-state militias and the Congolese army. They blame each other for violating the ceasefire, which makes it fragile.
In perspective
First, a holding peace deal. The peace deal between the DRC and Rwanda seems to be holding. The US peace deal has instituted a Joint Oversight Committee to implement the peace agreement. The implementation process has begun, and the economic cooperation deal was the first step, signalling a commitment from DRC and Rwanda. It loosened diplomatic tensions between the DRC and Rwanda. But, has not made any substantial development towards a conflict settlement.
Second, a collapsing ceasefire. A ceasefire collapse would likely impact the peace deal, considering Rwanda's ties with the M23 rebels. It would potentially threaten the trust built between DRC and Rwanda through the Washington peace deal. While the ceasefire violations continue, the peace deal is on the brink of collapse.
Third, ceasefire violations. For M23, the group likely agreed to the ceasefire under pressure, as the cost of refusal would have been unfavourable. The ceasefire violation and the resumption of violence imply that either the parties lack trust towards each other's peace intentions or they never had the intention to end the fighting in the first place.
Fourth, a peace deal without peace. The US-brokered deal was highly criticised for the US's economic interests involved. Many criticised it as an economic deal instead of a peace deal. Rather than an inclusive peace process, it was a high-level political agreement. The deal does not discuss resolving the conflict in eastern DRC. Meanwhile, neither Qatar nor the US have shown much interest in sustaining the M23-DRC ceasefire. They have not responded to the reports of the ceasefire violations. A peace deal was reached between the DRC and Rwanda. The recent development says the peace deal has not brought any developments towards peace in eastern Congo.
About the authors
Anu Maria Joseph is a Project Associate at NIAS.
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