|
Padmashree Anandhan
21 August 2025 |
In the news
On 15 August, US President Donald Trump and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin held a meeting in Alaska to discuss on war in Ukraine and Russia-US bilateral relations. Following the talks, the leaders held a press conference where both called the talks “productive.” The expectations to reach an agreement on a ceasefire or any concessions in favour of ending the war were not met. In the joint statement, Putin said: “Conflict resolution in Ukraine to be long-term and lasting, all the root causes of the crisis…all of Russia’s legitimate concerns must be taken into account.” Trump said: “I would say, a couple of big ones that we haven't quite gotten there, but we've made some headway. So there's no deal until there's a deal.”
On 16 August, following the call with Trump, the European Commission jointly pledged strong support for Ukraine. The statement stressed the need for “ironclad security guarantees” to protect Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
On 18 August, following the meeting held between Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and European leaders, with Trump. An immediate ceasefire was ruled out by Trump, and he assured to give security guarantees for Ukraine. On the same, Zelenskyy said that security guarantees for Ukraine are expected to be finalized within 10 days, including a USD 90 billion US weapons package and an agreement for the US to purchase Ukrainian-made drones.
On 18 August, in the meeting between Trump, EU leaders and Zelenskyy, the prolonged direct talks were proposed in a trilateral format. However, the extent of support is unknown. During the meeting, UK’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer hailed “real progress,” highlighting two key outcomes. One, joint US-European work on security guarantees for Ukraine and two, the direct talks with a focus on territory, prisoners and children.
On 19 August, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov emphasized that any potential meeting between Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and must be “thoroughly prepared.” On 19 August, Trump ruled out US troop commitments as part of security guarantees but indicated that the US might support European efforts with other forms of assistance, particularly air support.
On 20 August, on the security guarantees, Lavrov responded: “Without Russia, talks on security guarantees will lead to nowhere.” On the same day, NATO defense leaders held a meeting to discuss security guarantees. Italy’s Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone said: "On Ukraine, we confirmed our support. Priority continues to be a just, credible and durable peace."
Issues at large
First, a brief note on Trump-Zelenskyy talks till now. Since Trump’s Presidency, the nature of engagement with Zelenskyy has been intense, except for the recent one. Starting from Trump blaming Ukraine for prolonging the war to the clash in the Oval Office. Trump has shown high reluctance in aiding Ukraine in military and political negotiations. Since the minerals deal and the gradual gathering of the EU leaders under the “Coalition of willing” to support Ukraine, Trump’s interaction with Zelenskyy has mellowed. From banning military aid to assuring security guarantees and helping bring Putin to the table, Trump has taken heed to stop the war on the ground.
Second, military aid and security guarantees for Ukraine. West’s support has developed slowly, mostly on a reactive basis. Till not the US, EU and NATO have provided USD 250 billion in aid, combining military, economic and humanitarian. In the last two years, the support has been limited to keep Ukraine’s defence, but also expanded into advanced air defences such as F-16 and long-range missiles. Direct troop deployment has been ruled out, although the UK, France, Germany and Poland have agreed to sustain their military assistance, intelligence sharing and defence industrial cooperation through security agreements to Ukraine.
Third, European unity. France, the UK and Germany, which formed the “Coalition of Willing” did not initially seem like a solid strategy to garner support for Ukraine. Over the months, the coalition has grown to 31 countries, aligning with core principles. It includes “…no recognition of territorial changes by force, commitment to long-term security and no peace deal without Ukraine.” Apart from this, Germany, the UK and France have taken extensive efforts to fix the transatlantic equation and help in building a united EU consensus. This has helped position Europe as a united actor to strengthen Ukraine at the political and ground level while also shaping Europe’s security landscape.
In perspective
The tough road ahead for Ukraine. Putin and Zelenskyy have met only once in 2019 in the Normandy format set up by France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine. The meeting aimed at putting an end to the conflict in Donbas, where both agreed to withdraw troops by 2020, conduct elections in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions and reintegrate Ukraine. It was seen as historic in 2019; however, except for the prisoner exchange, the deal did not last long. The Normandy format dialogue was initiated again in 2022 but, the leaders were not present. At present, with Trump agreeing to mediate the trilateral, the first direct talk between Zelenskyy and Putin will be seen as an ice breaker but without either of them agreeing to forgo a part of the territorial claims, the deadlock to end the war will continue, with the meeting being only symbolic.
About the authors
Padmashree Anandhan is a Project Associate at NIAS.
.jpg)
.jpg)
.jpg)
