CWA # 2034
The US-Iran War, Week Three
Multi-front Escalation and Economic Fallouts

Rohini Reenum
20 March 2026
Photo Source: Times of Israel

Conflict Weekly Note
In the news
US-Israeli offensive
Between 13 and 14 March, the US conducted strikes on Iran's Kharg Island, targeting military installations while sparing oil infrastructure. The US Central Command claimed to have targeted 90 military sites on the Island. On 14 March, a missile strike on an industrial site in the central Iranian city of Isfahan killed at least 15 people. On the same day, President Trump revealed that he has appealed to China, France, Japan, South Korea, and the United Kingdom to join the US in securing the Strait of Hormuz. Later, he called on all “the Countries of the World that receive Oil through the Hormuz Strait” to join the coalition, making a special mention of NATO. No countries have made any announcement so far regarding joining the coalition. On 15 March, US President Donald Trump threatened Iran with further attacks on the Kharg Island if it continued blocking the Strait of Hormuz.

On 17 March, the Israeli Defense Minister, Israel Katz, claimed that Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Head, Ali Larijani, and commander of the Basij paramilitary forces, Gholamreza Soleimani, were killed in overnight strikes. On the following day, Iran confirmed their deaths, vowing revenge. On 18 March, President Trump criticised NATO allies and partners for failing to provide stronger military support in efforts to end Iran’s chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz. On the same day, Israel attacked Iran’s South Pars field, and Iran confirmed the killing of Intelligence Minister Esmail Khatib in an overnight attack by Israel.

Iran’s Response
Between 13 and 18 March, Iran continued to target US military bases across the Middle East, central Israel, and sporadic attacks in the Gulf countries.

On 18 March, there were multiple drone attacks in Iraq, including near the Baghdad airport and the US embassy in the Green Zone. On the same day, an Iraqi armed group claimed responsibility for 28 drone strikes across Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Jordan over the past 15 days. In response to the South Pars field attack, Iran's IRGC  launched attacks on several energy sites in the Gulf countries, including Qatar’s Ras Laffan gas facility, where authorities reported significant damage, and at the United Arab Emirates’ Habshan ?gas facility, where operations were suspended. Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi, in an interview, said that “This is America’s war” and blamed the US for the regional escalation.

Following the killing of three senior leaders, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian condemned the “cowardly assassination” of his “dear colleagues” and added that their “path will continue stronger than before.”

Regional Responses
On 18 March, Al Jazeera reported that Saudi Arabia was hosting an emergency meeting of foreign ministers from Arab and Muslim countries in Riyadh to discuss Iranian retaliation. On the same day, Qatar’s Foreign Ministry made a strong statement following the Iranian attack on its Ras Laffan gas facility. The statement read “Qatar considers this assault a dangerous escalation, a flagrant violation of its sovereignty, and a direct threat to its national security.”

On 19 March, Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan declared that the “little trust” rebuilt with Iran over the last few years is now “completely shattered.” Farhan also warned that “The Kingdom and its partners possess significant capabilities, and the patience we have shown is not unlimited.”

Developments within the US
On 18 March, US National Counterterrorism Center director Joe Kent tendered his public resignation protesting the Iran War. In his statement, he claimed that “Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation, and it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby.”

Issues at large
1. The rapid multi-front escalation
In the third week, the war has significantly escalated across all fronts, with the killing of three key senior Iranian leaders, targeting of its strategic assets, such as the Kharg Island, and its biggest gas field. In retaliation, Tehran has also indiscriminately targeted energy reserves and infrastructure across the Gulf countries, expanding its targets dramatically. On the maritime front, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, with Iran allowing only a few ships to pass per day based on the ship’s flagged state. With key mediators in the Middle East like Qatar and the UAE caught in the War’s crosshairs, a defiant Iran and an unwilling Trump, there naturally has been no talk of any ceasefire/peace negotiations. The only development on this front has been President Trump’s assurance that henceforth, Israel will not attack any of Tehran’s gas fields.

2. Pushback, yet reluctance of the Gulf countries to militarily retaliate
Following escalating Iranian aggression, the response from Gulf countries has shifted from defensive posturing to an active, coordinated pushback, stopping short of active military retaliation. For instance, Saudi Arabia issued warnings of military retaliation, and the Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs labelled the attack on its gas field a “calculated act of economic terrorism.” Additionally, Qatar has also expelled key Iranian military and security officials along with their staff from its territory. Despite this hardening of their stance, the Gulf countries have maintained a policy of strategic non-retaliation, possibly for the fear of an all-out regional war, its long-term economic ramifications, and being viewed domestically as fighting an Israeli War. Non-retaliation also helps them maintain neutrality and secure international support.

3. Lack of support for the US-Israeli offensive
During the first two weeks, the US allies' lack of support for the Iran War was reflected in their measured statements. However, in the third week, with Trump’s direct appeals for joining the coalition rejected, traditional US allies have made their stance clearer. Further, there are signs of growing divergence of opinion among US allies in the Middle East as well. Interestingly, Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi made a surprise statement in an Economist opinion stating that “the United States has lost control of its foreign policy and is involved in a war that is not its own.” This lack of support for the War at the home front was also reflected in the high-profile resignation of Trump’s counterterrorism aide, which not only reflected a difference of opinion but also put under scrutiny the pretext and rationale for starting the war itself.

4. Global economic fallouts
While the first two weeks of the War pushed oil prices past USD 100, the recent attacks on gas fields have triggered a significant global supply shock. Brent crude, which hovered around USD 70 before the war, has surged to USD 126 following the Ras Laffan attack. QatarEnergy confirmed that the strikes wiped out 17 per cent of Qatar’s LNG capacity. Experts have warned that repairs could take 3 to 5 years, creating a long-term structural deficit in global gas supply. The Hormuz Blockade has also adversely impacted the global energy supply, which is currently falling 20 million barrels per day (mb/d) short of demand.

In perspective

With expanded targeting of energy reserves and infrastructure, the War has metamorphosed from an earlier precise decapacitation military campaign to a comprehensive energy war, threatening the global energy supply chain and immediate and future energy security. With the intensification of Iranian retaliation across the Middle East and consequent growing frustration among the Gulf countries, the region could very well be at the precipice of a total regional conflagration.

The successive killing of key Iranian leaders has also hardened Iran’s defiance and rhetoric, which views the Israeli-US offensive as an existential threat to the country. This makes negotiations difficult and only heightens the threat of miscalculation. Further, President Trump is also beginning to face the repercussions of starting a unilateral war, both from his allies and at home. Overall, the trajectory of this war is becoming difficult to predict, with its progression and expansion, and a lot will depend on who blinks first and calls for de-escalation.


Click here for recent and related publications:
Rohini Reenum, “The US Iran War, Week Two: Expanding Fronts, Shifting Goalposts, and Global Fallout,” Conflict Weekly #323, 13 March 2026
Rohini Reenum, “The US-Iran War, Week One: Rapid Escalation, Regional Spillover, Global Uncertainty,” Conflict Weekly #322, 06 March 2026

 

Rohini Reenum is a PhD Scholar at NIAS.


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Thailand and Cambodia
What was the phone call between PM Shinawatra and President of Senate Hun Sen? What is the border dispute between the two? Why has this become an issue?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1735

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025:
Trump making Europe great again
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1734

GP Team

The World This Week #317
NATO Summit 2025 and Russia-Mali bilateral agreements
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1733

Ananya Dinesh

China and the Pacific Islands 
What was the recent China-PIC joint statement about? What it says, and what it means?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1728

M Kejia

G7 Summit 2025:
The Focus on the Middle East and Trade negotiations
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1726

GP Team

The World This Week #316
China-Central Asia Summit in Kazakhstan, and the G7 Summit in Canada
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1725

Brighty Ann Sarah, R Preetha, Santhiya M, Aparna A Nair & M Kejia

Operation Midnight Hammer: US bombs three nuclear sites in Iran
What were the three Iranian nuclear sites that were targeted? What are the B2 Bombers and Bunker Buster Bombs? What do these attacks mean? What Next?
Conflict Weekly
June 2025 | CWA # 1724

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #286
The Spiralling Israel-Iran Crisis, and the Dangerous Hunger Hotspots
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1721

Rizwana Banu S and Santhiya M

Who are the Afrikaners?
Why is Trump interested in the Afrikaner question in South Africa?
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1720

Lekshmi MK

New WMO Report on Arctic Warming
What are the social, economic and environmental implications of Arctic warming
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1719

J Yamini  

China’s EV Surge
What contributes to the rise of BYD
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1717

J Yamini

Gender Violence in Pakistan:
What are the larger issues in the Noor Mukadam case?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1715

Femy Francis

The US-China:
On Tariffs, Rare Earths and Visas
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1713

GP Team

The World This Week #315
The UN Ocean Conference in France and the US-China Meeting in London
CW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1712

R Preetha

The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1705

GP Team

The World This Week #314
Elections in South Korea and Poland I China and the Pacific Island Countries I Bangladesh Election Announcement 2026
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1703

M Kejia 

Sagarmatha Sambaad in Nepal
Kathmandu’s Global Agenda for the Himalayas
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1700

R Preetha

Ethiopia bans the TPLF
What does the TPLF ban mean for the Pretoria agreement? What next for Ethiopia?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1694

Aashish Ganeshan

The US:
Harvard vs Trump Administration
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1691

GP Team

The World This Week #313
China-ASEAN-GCC Summit I President Macron's visit to South East Asia I Trump Vs Harvard
The World This Week
May 2025 | CWA # 1690

GP Team

The World This Week #312
Elections in Romania, Portugal & Poland I UK-EU Summit
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1689

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine
Continuing Russia’s Aerial Attacks, despite exchange of prisoners
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1688

Ayan Datta

Gaza
The Humanitarian Crisis and Israel’s Renewed Offensive
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1685

Aparna A Nair

UK-EU Summit:
First step towards a reset
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1683

Aashish Ganeshan

Elections in Portugal:
The Rise of Chega Party and the Search for Political Stability
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1679

Aashish Ganeshan

US in the Middle Easr
Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1678

Gauri Gupta

China in Latin America
China-CELAC forum: Strengthening ties with Latin America and Caribbean
The World This Week
May 2025 | CWA # 1677

GP Team

The World This Week #310-311
China in Latin America and the Carribbean I Trump's Middle East Visit I Denmark as the new Arctic Chair
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1675

Lekshmi MK

Turkey:
PKK disbands after 40 years of armed insurgency
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1673

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine:
The Discussion in Turkiye and the Elusive Ceasefire
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1671

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

US, Ukraine and Russia:
Air attacks amidst a Minerals deal and Ceasefire Proposals
Global Politics Early Bird
May 2025 | CWA # 1670

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Singapore Elections in 2025:
People’s Action Party (PAP) Wins, Again
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1667

R Preetha and Brighty Ann Sarah

East Asia:
Tough Tariff Negotiations with the US
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1666

Padmashree Anandhan

The US-Ukraine
The mineral deal with the US
Conflict Weekly
May 2025 | CWA # 1665
Conflict Weekly # 280-81
India-Pakistan De-escalation I Ukraine Discussion in Istanbul I The Battle over Port Sudan I Disbanding of PKK in Turkiye I France-Algeria Diplomatic Tensions
Global Politics Early Bird
May 2025 | CWA # 1663

R Preetha

Canada Elections 2025:
What do the results convey? What next for Mark Carney?
Conflict Weekly 250th Issue
October 2024 | CWA # 1480

IPRI Team

This Week in History
July 2024 | CWA # 1413

Ramya B

Global Politics Early Bird
May 2024 | CWA # 1336

Femy Francis

This Week in History
April 2024 | CWA # 1275

Ramya B

NIAS Global Politics Database
March 2024 | CWA # 1251

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
This Week in History
March 2024 | CWA # 1246

Sivasubramanian K

NIAS Global Politics Database
February 2024 | CWA # 1226

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
The World This Week
November 2023 | CWA # 1148

GP Team

The War in Ukraine
October 2023 | CWA # 1091

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri

Issues for Europe
NIAS Pakistan Weekly
October 2023 | CWA # 1087

PR Team

The World This Week
October 2023 | CWA # 1083

GP Team

Conflict Weekly
August 2023 | CWA # 1049

IPRI Team

IPRI Quarterly Forecasts I Triggers, Trends, and Trajectories
July 2023 | CWA # 1012

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar continues to burn
The World This Week
July 2023 | CWA # 1009

GP Team

2022: The World This Year
December 2022 | CWA # 879

Padmashree Anandhan

The Ukraine War
2022: The World This Year
December 2022 | CWA # 872

Sapna Elsa Abraham

Europe: Heatwaves, Wildfires, Droughts, and Ice Melt in Alps
November 2022 | CWA # 838

Rishma Banerjee

Tracing Europe's droughts
NIAS Africa Weekly
March 2022 | CWA # 705

NIAS Africa Team

In Focus: Libya
The World This Week: 150th Issue
December 2021 | CWA # 630

GP Team

Europe in 2021
Pakistan Reader
October 2021 | CWA # 588

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

TLP is back again
NIAS Fortnightly on Science, Technology & International Relations
August 2021 | CWA # 528

STIR Team

Space Tourism
GLOBAL PROTEST MOVEMENTS
September 2020 | CWA # 337

Anju Annie Mammen

The FATF Meeting, February 2020
February 2020 | CWA # 235

Lakshmi V Menon

Science, Technology and International Relations
September 2019 | CWA # 162

Lakshman Chakravarthy N

5G: A Primer
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 71

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 70

Nasima Khatoon

The Maldives
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 69

Harini Madhusudan

India
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 68

Sourina Bej

Bangladesh
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 67

Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer

Afghanistan
United States
July 2018 | CWA # 47

Rahul Arockiaraj

East Asia
June 2018 | CWA # 26

Siddhatti Mehta