|
Padmashree Anandhan
20 March 2026 |
Conflict Weekly Column #324, 20 March 2026
In the news
War on the ground
On 16 March, Zelenskyy called for tighter control over Ukraine’s drone exports amid rising global demand, particularly from the US and the Middle East. He also noted delays in peace talks, stating Ukraine was awaiting responses from the US and Russia. On 17 March, Zelenskyy visited the UK, where Prime Minister Keir Starmer warned that the Middle East war could become a “windfall for Putin” through rising energy revenues. On 18 March, the Ukrainian military deployed over 200 anti-drone military experts to Gulf countries, including the UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, to counter Iranian-designed Shahed drones. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned that drone warfare is expanding beyond state actors.
Moscow View
On 15 March, Russia launched a large-scale missile and drone assault across Ukraine, deploying over 400 drones and dozens of missiles, targeting energy infrastructure and civilian areas. Multiple regions, including Kyiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Dnipro and Mykolaiv, reported casualties and damage. Russian strikes caused sustained damage to urban centres like Kharkiv, Sloviansk and Zaporizhzhia, particularly targeting residential areas and energy infrastructure, while Ukraine’s strikes have focused on military-industrial and logistical targets inside Russia.
West View
On 14 March, the US postponed another round of trilateral peace talks due to the Middle East conflict, while also issuing temporary waivers on Russian oil sanctions. US-Russia discussions continued without Ukrainian participation, with a partial focus on energy cooperation. On 18 March, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas cautioned that rising energy prices and diversion of air defence systems to the Middle East could benefit Russia. She said: “If we just go back to business as usual, we will have more of this – more wars.” On the same day, Ukraine confirmed Druzhba pipeline repairs were progressing, but restoration of oil flows to Hungary and Slovakia would take weeks.
Issues at large
1. Russia’s gradual pressure in eastern Ukraine and intensifying attacks on key urban and energy centres
Russia continues to hold roughly one-fifth of Ukrainian territory and is consolidating its position in the Donbas, with reported advances toward strategic hubs such as Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. While gains remain incremental rather than decisive, Russia’s approach combines slow ground advances with sustained aerial bombardment. Cities in eastern Ukraine, including Kharkiv, Sloviansk, Kramatorsk and Zaporizhzhia, have faced repeated missile, drone and glide bomb attacks, leading to significant civilian and infrastructure damage. At the same time, Ukraine has shown the ability to counter Russian offensives through air defence and localised counterattacks.
2. Russia leveraging the global energy crisis and negotiations
The war in the Middle East has driven oil prices upward, allowing Russia to boost revenues despite sanctions. US moves to ease certain restrictions on Russian oil have further enabled this trend. Russia is now positioning itself as a reliable supplier in a disrupted global market and signalling potential resumption of energy flows to Europe under favourable conditions. Meanwhile, disputes within Europe, involving Hungary and Slovakia, show continued dependence on Russian energy and difficulty in energy transition.
3. The Middle East reshaping the strategic environment of the Ukraine war
The diversion of global attention and military resources has directly affected Ukraine, particularly through the reallocation of air defence systems and delays in diplomatic engagement. Rising energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict are also strengthening Russia’s economic position. Ukraine’s leadership has openly expressed concern that the conflict is losing centrality in global strategic priorities, which could prolong the war and weaken support.
4. Europe’s political signal for Ukraine
The European leaders have reiterated commitments to Ukraine’s security and rejected calls to normalise ties with Russia. However, internal divisions over energy dependence, financial assistance and strategic priorities persist. While support remains firm in rhetoric, the ability to maintain cohesion and sustained engagement is increasingly challenged by competing geopolitical pressures.
In perspective
Compared to previous weeks, the pattern remains consistent. Russia is not achieving rapid breakthroughs but is steadily degrading Ukraine’s defensive capacity and urban resilience through persistent strikes, while Ukraine relies on interception and targeted counterstrikes to stabilise the front. Russia’s ability to combine gradual territorial advances with sustained infrastructure strikes, alongside renewed energy leverage, positions it to endure the conflict. Ukraine remains resilient, adapting through technological innovation and defensive effectiveness, but the overlap of multiple conflicts is diluting diplomatic momentum and exposing cracks within Western support structures. As a result, the war is likely to be prolonged.
Padmashree Anandhan, “Continuing Strikes and Inconsistent Diplomatic Efforts,” Conflict Weekly #323, 13 March 2026
Padmashree Anandhan, “Four Years of War in Ukraine,” Conflict Weekly, 21 February 2026
Padmashree Anandhan, “Ukraine Peace talks in Abu Dhabi,” Conflict Weekly, 14 February 2026
.jpg)
.jpg)
.jpg)
