Israel-Lebanon Tensions and a New Deal I The US-Iran War, Week Fourteen

CWA # 2133

Conflict Weekly

Israel-Lebanon Tensions and a New Deal I The US-Iran War, Week Fourteen

Conflicts in Africa I The UK-Rwanda Asylum Deal

NIAS Global Politics Team
5 June 2026

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Conflict Weekly Note
Israel-Lebanon Tensions:
New Deal amidst Israeli incursion and Hezbollah’s retaliation
Rohini Reenum

In the news
On 31 May, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced his official instruction to the IDF to “deepen and expand” ground operations and control over previously Hezbollah-held areas.

On 1 June, US President Trump announced a verbal agreement between PM Netanyahu and backchannel representatives for Hezbollah, wherein the latter had agreed to halt its attacks against Israel if the latter ceased its offensive against Lebanon. On the same day, the UNSC convened an emergency session on Lebanon; top UN officials termed the situation “deeply alarming,” and cautioned over continuing attacks and Israel’s push further north. On the same day, Hezbollah announced that it had engaged and attacked Israeli ground troops and launched a retaliatory strike.

Between 1 June and 31 May, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio held urgent diplomatic calls with PM Netanyahu and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, proposing a phased framework where Hezbollah would halt attacks in exchange for Israel ending escalating strikes in Beirut.

On 3 June, the US, the Lebanese government and Israel issued a joint statement on Israel and Lebanon agreeing to a conditional ceasefire depending on “a complete cessation of Hezbollah fire and the evacuation of all Hezbollah operatives from the South Litani Sector.” The statement also emphasized that “the future of the relationship” between the two countries “must be decided by the two sovereign governments.” Additionally, the parties “rejected any attempt, by any state or non-state actor, to hold Lebanon’s future hostage.”

On 4 June, Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem dismissed this deal, labeling it as “surrender and defeat.”

Issues at large
1. The expanding conflict geography
Previously, Israel had restricted itself to launching aerial attacks on Hezbollah strongholds in Southern Lebanon and South Beirut. Subsequently, Israel announced plans to occupy southern Lebanon up to the Litani River as a “defensive security zone.” This was followed by a ground offensive, which saw targeted attacks against civilian infrastructure, effectively cutting off Southern Lebanon from the mainland. The expansion further north continued with the capture of the castle and the crossing of the Litani River.

2. Diplomatic success followed by implementation failure
Since Israel’s offensive began, the US has mediated four direct talks and has managed to successfully conclude one 10-day pause and its subsequent extension. Despite this, Israeli attacks on Lebanon have continued, with Hezbollah intensifying its retaliation and increasingly taking an offensive posture. Even assurances from President Trump have failed to alter Netanyahu’s plans for Lebanon. The truce has thus been rendered ineffective. This diplomatic success should also be viewed against the backdrop of ongoing Iran-US negotiations wherein Tehran has insisted on the inclusion of Hezbollah as a prerequisite to any deal. A major roadblock to the implementation of the ceasefire has been the inability of the Lebanese government to disarm Hezbollah/deter its rearmament, which is a key Israeli demand.

3. The New Deal and its attempt to address implementation challenges
The latest deal has sought to mitigate some implementation challenges by mandating the expedited creation of “pilot zones.” The US has also reiterated its commitment to train the LAF, which can be viewed as sidelining Hezbollah diplomatically, scuttling its rearmament goals, and rendering it a non-factor in Israel-Lebanon relations permanently. This move is also aimed at reaffirming the Lebanese government’s territorial sovereignty and improving its state capacity.

4. The failure of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNFIL) and the entry of the US
The UN peacekeeping mission (UNFIL) was deployed in Lebanon in 1978 to “confirm the withdrawal of Israeli forces from southern Lebanon; restore international peace and security and assist the Government of Lebanon in ensuring the return of its effective authority in the area.” Subsequently, its mandate was expanded to include providing humanitarian aid, bringing the area between the Blue Line and the Litani River under the control of the LAF and UNFIL, among others. Despite its mandate being renewed annually for the past four decades, the mission has failed to achieve anything concrete. Unsurprisingly, in 2025, the UNSC decided to withdraw the UNFIL, setting a deadline of December 2026, effectively ending the UN’s presence in Lebanon.

In perspective
First, the last week was characterized by rapid escalation, breakthrough talks followed by ceasefire violations- a cycle that has repeated this past year. This has continued to fuel suspicion on both sides, creating a classic case of security dilemma. Second, the ongoing conflict has also created a conundrum for the Lebanese government, which lacks both the state capacity to disarm Hezbollah and respond to Israel effectively. Beirut has chosen the diplomatic route to reaffirm its sovereignty, deal with the Israeli aggression, and solve the Hezbollah problem. The success depends largely on continued US support and Israel’s commitment to its obligations, which is highly unlikely given its past actions. Third, Hezbollah is likely to remain a factor in Israel- Lebanon relations, at least for the immediate future, given Iran’s unwillingness to abandon it and Hezbollah’s long-standing domestic support.

Rohini Reenum is a doctoral student at NIAS. She is working on Governance in Areas Beyond National Jurisdiction using the case study of the BBNJ Agreement.

Conflict Weekly Column
The US-Iran War, Week Fourteen:
Intensifying Domestic Pressure and the Lebanon Question
Brighty Ann Sarah

In the news
On 01 June, Iranian media outlet Tasnim reported that Tehran has suspended all indirect negotiations with the US in light of Israel’s violations in Lebanon.

Iranian officials stated that the political negotiations between Washington and Tehran are being delayed by Israel’s persisting violations in Lebanon, and accused the US of “constantly changing its views and putting forward “new or contradictory demands.” Iran’s spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei, added that Tehran is pursuing its core demand for the release of its frozen funds.

On 03 June, the Iranian Central Bank released a report warning of inflation at World War II levels, with the Iranian rial falling to 1.7 million per US dollar. Subsequently, on 04 June, Reuters reported that Iran’s exports of crude oil and condensate fell to their lowest level in at least six years in May, well below 300,000 barrels per day.

On 04 June, the US House of Representatives passed a War Powers Resolution aiming to halt further military action in Iran. The 215-208 vote was successful after four Republicans joined Democrats in a public show of disapproval of the war. President Trump rebuked the resolution as "unpatriotic" and ill-timed, as he was close to drawing a peace deal with Iran. Separately, Hezbollah rejected the US-mediated ceasefire proposal between Israel and Lebanon, as Israel continued its strikes on Lebanon and reasserted that it would not withdraw from southern Lebanon.

On 05 June, Iran reiterated its support for Hezbollah and asserted that any broader Iran-US negotiations were contingent on the end of hostilities in Lebanon and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from occupied Lebanese territory. "This war will end only when it ends in Lebanon as well," asserted Iran’s Foreign â€‹Minister Abbas Araqchi.

Issues at large
1. Intensifying Congressional pressure over the Iran war
The War Powers Resolution is a US federal law that limits the President’s ability to deploy forces into hostilities without congressional approval. Under the resolution, the President must notify Congress within 48 hours of committing armed forces and cannot keep them deployed for more than 60 days without explicit congressional authorization or a formal declaration of war. The passage of the resolution, notably backed by four Republican senators despite several prior failed attempts, signals growing domestic disapproval and war fatigue. Rising gas prices and broader increases in household costs have already fuelled public discontent and weighed on President Trump’s approval ratings. The absence of a “swift and decisive” end to the conflict, as initially promised, has further deepened this dissatisfaction. This discontent also reflects unease over Israel’s continued military actions in Lebanon, complicating already strained US-Iran negotiations, particularly amid repeated US attempts to broker a ceasefire in Lebanon as a path toward a broader US-Iran peace deal.

2. The Lebanon factor in the US-Iran stalemate
The cessation of Israeli violations in Lebanon has consistently remained a core Iranian demand for any comprehensive negotiations with the US. Israel’s continued ceasefire violations, despite US intervention, remain a key obstacle to a US-Iran settlement, further complicated by recent escalations around Beirut and the entrenchment in southern Lebanon. Iran has also become more vocal in its support for Hezbollah’s counterstrikes and opposition to Israel’s intensified military activity in Lebanon, further deepening the US-Iran impasse.

3. Rising economic pressure in Iran and the push for sanctions relief
Shipping data indicates that Iran’s crude oil exports averaged about 209,000 bpd in May, a sharp decline from 1.34 million bpd in April and nearly 1.9 million bpd in March. Iran’s latest set of demands in negotiations with the US has centered on the release of frozen assets and the lifting of stringent sanctions. This comes amid rising inflation gripping Iran’s war economy. Tehran’s economic strain, already marked by severe inflation and currency devaluation earlier in the year, has been further exacerbated by the escalation of hostilities with Washington and Tel Aviv, while disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have dealt a significant blow to its oil-dependent economy. With Washington’s dual blockade of the strait, Iran’s oil shipments, and the income anticipated from tolls and control over the strait have dwindled, leaving the economy in a much worse state than when it started. Iran’s previously significant reliance on shadow-fleet oil exports has also come under pressure, increasing the need for sanctions relief and access to frozen funds.

In perspective
Despite intensifying domestic pressure to end the prolonged conflict, core disagreements remain unresolved, leaving both administrations in a standoff over who will concede first. While Washington has sought to address Iranian demands for a comprehensive cessation of hostilities by mediating Iran-Lebanon ceasefire negotiations, Israel’s continued operations and broader strategic ambitions, alongside Hezbollah’s retaliatory strikes, have undermined prospects for a swift resolution. The multi-front war and its protracted nature have severely eroded the Trump administration’s approval ratings, increasing pressure for a peace deal with Iran. Tehran simultaneously faces mounting economic strain from the blockade of the Strait and disruptions to its oil trade, further complicating its domestic landscape. With recent memories of severe civil unrest in early January, prompted by economic crisis and rising prices, Iran’s war-burdened economy is in dire need to stabilize on the domestic front.

Brighty Ann Sarah is a Research Assistant with the Global Politics team at the Science, Technology and International Relations (STIR) Programme at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

Conflict Weekly Column
Conflicts in Africa This Week:
The Ebola fear in DR Congo and the Elections in Ethiopia amidst conflicts
Anu Maria Joseph

What happened this week?
1. DR Congo
As of 29 May, according to the WHO, 223 people died out of 906 suspected Ebola virus cases in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The disease has spread to neighbouring Uganda, with nine confirmed cases and one death. The previous week, the WHO declared the Ebola outbreak a public emergency of international concern.

On 31 May, Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) deputy director Dr Alan Gonzales stated: "Never before has an Ebola outbreak recorded so many cases so soon after its declaration." He added: "Nobody knows the true scale and severity of this outbreak. New suspected cases are being reported daily."

On 29 May, a Kenyan court suspended the US plan to open an Ebola quarantine facility in Kenya to host American citizens exposed to the disease. However, Kenyan President William Ruto defended the plan, stating: "When President [Donald] Trump asked Kenya to support them by having a centre in Laikipia Airbase I gave the ok because it was an agreement with friends who have walked with Kenya for 30, 40 years." He added: "We are a responsible government. We know what we are doing."

Later, on 1 June, two people died in a protest against the planned US Ebola quarantine facility at the Laikipia military base. The US government said it plans to commit USD 13.5 million towards Kenya's Ebola preparation efforts. A US official stated that Kenya was selected because of its "proximity, airports in the region having limited capability, and to ensure Americans can be treated in a timely manner."

2. Ethiopia
On 1 June, Ethiopia conducted its seventh national election. 47 political parties contested the election, fielding 10,900 candidates for 547 seats in parliament. To form the government, the ruling party must secure 274 seats, a simple majority. Incumbent Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and his Prosperity Party are vying for another win. Voting has been suspended in Oromia, Amhara and Tigray regions, citing "unfavourable conditions" amid the conflict.

What are the issues?
1. DR Congo: The Ebola problem in conflict regions and Kenya’s debate on health burden sharing
DR Congo had faced 16 previous Ebola outbreaks. However, the current spread of the Bundibugyo variant has sparked fear for three reasons. First, the spread was diagnosed late. On 17 May, when WHO declared a public emergency in Congo, the death toll was above 80. The health agency also warned of the potential for a "larger outbreak." In a span of a week, the death toll crossed 200.

Secondly, the Bundibugyo variant does not have approved vaccines or drugs. Although unlike COVID-19, Ebola is not a respiratory virus that spreads effectively, it is easily transmitted and often deadly. 30 percent of people died in the previous outbreak of the current variant. The International AIDS Vaccine Initiative (IAVI) says it will take another 9 months to prepare the vaccine for clinical trials.

Third, the conflict in eastern Congo is complicating the containment. The conflict-hit Ituri province was identified as the epicenter of the disease outbreak. The disease has also spread to North and South Kivu provinces, both of which are challenged by rebel violence. The complex conflict has collapsed hospitals and health facilities, and the state has limited access to carry out surveillance, tracing, or health care measures. The disease has spread faster in conflict zones due to poor sanitation, greater mobility due to conflict-induced displacement, a weaker immune system among civilians, and a compromised health system.

The positive development is a swift international response. The EU has allocated EUR 15 million. The EU, WHO, Africa CDC, national authorities and other partners have scaled up surveillance, infection prevention and control, health services and community engagement to reduce the risk of regional and international spread.

Meanwhile, in Kenya, the US plan to establish an Ebola quarantine centre for its citizens, who have been exposed to the virus, has sparked widespread public anger among Kenyans. The protesters accuse the US of offloading health risks on Kenyan soil. The argument came after Trump announced it "cannot and will not allow" any Ebola cases to enter US soil. Kenya has not recorded any Ebola cases yet. The protesters fear that the centre will expose Kenya to the virus, a country with a weak health system.

2. Ethiopia: Elections overshadowed by conflicts
Abiy Ahmed's Prosperity Party came to power in 2018 with widespread popular support. In the 2018 and 2022 elections, he secured over 90 percent of the vote. Prosperity Party still dominates Ethiopian politics, while the opposition is weak and divided.

The election cannot be considered a democratic contest because it is overshadowed by multiple security issues. Elections are not being conducted in Tigray and parts of the Amhara and Oromia regions. The 2022 November Pretoria Agreement formally ended the Tigray War between the federal government and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF). However, the provisions within the agreement are yet to be implemented. In May 2026, TPLF restored its government in Tigray after the federal government extended the term of the interim government. The move has brought the region to the brink of a full return to war. In Amhara, the federal forces are fighting the Fano militia. In Oromia, the major security challenge is posed by the Oromia Liberation Army (OLA).

What does it mean?
1. DRC
DR Congo has previously managed to fight multiple Ebola outbreaks without a vaccine. It implies that the country has experience in surveillance, management, outbreak control, and coordination. However, the challenge is the lack of an operational environment due to conflict, displacement, state capacity, and collapsed health systems. International actors have stepped in and appear to have controlled a regional and international spread.

Meanwhile, in Kenya, the US plan to establish an Ebola quarantine centre has caused debates over risk, decision, consent, and burden sharing. For Kenya, the move raises questions of unequal distribution of risks. It has caused perceptions that Kenya is being considered as a place to manage the disease that originated in the DRC, as the US believes exposed individuals should not be brought to its territory. Additionally, although the quarantine facilities are designed to operate under biosafety protocols, Kenya’s limited public health capacity raises concerns about a high risk of disease spread.

2. Ethiopia
Ethiopia continues to face challenges from insurgency, militancy, and post-war uncertainty. These challenges limit political participation. In eight years, Abiy's party has managed to take control of state apparatus, federal institutions, security structures, and administrative structures. With none of the opposition parties having broad national support, Abiy's victory is certain. However, his victory also raises questions about political pluralism and inclusiveness. The continuation of Abiy’s regime is likely to leave the conflicts and security issues unresolved.

Anu Maria Joseph is currently a Non-Resident Fellow, Subhas Chandra Bose International Relations (SCB-IR) Chair, Chanakya University, Bengaluru.

Conflict Weekly Explainer
The UK-Rwanda Asylum Deal:
Why did the Permanent Court of Arbitration reject Rwanda’s claims? What was Rwanda’s complaint? Why did the UK cancel the deal?
Akshath Kaimal

On 01 June, the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in The Hague ruled in favour of the United Kingdom after Rwanda brought the country to court over the scrapped UK-Rwanda Asylum Partnership Agreement. The deal was struck between the two countries in 2022 and signed in 2023 while a Conservative government was in power in the UK, but was later suspended by the current Labour government in 2024.

In response to the ruling, a UK government spokesperson said that the country had “robustly defended its position, and the tribunal has now ruled in favour of the UK on all grounds.”

A Rwandan government spokesperson said that the country "respects the tribunal's ruling and considers the matter closed", but highlighted the dissenting opinion from one of the judges as representative of how the case is open to “different legal interpretations”.

1. What did the ruling say?
In its final Award, the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) rejected the Republic of Rwanda's claims against the United Kingdom. The tribunal ruled by majority to dismiss Rwanda's financial claim for the GBP 50 million Year 2 installment, and voted unanimously to reject the GBP 50 million claim for Year 3 under the 2024 Finance Agreement within the larger UK-Rwanda Asylum Partnership Agreement. Additionally, the panel unanimously rejected Rwanda's assertions that the UK breached its obligations under Articles 18 and 19 of the Agreement, finding that the UK was not in breach for failing to resettle vulnerable refugees. Ultimately, the tribunal decided that both nations must split the arbitration costs equally and absorb their own respective legal expenses.

2. What was the UK-Rwanda asylum deal?
The UK-Rwanda Asylum Partnership Agreement was a high-profile immigration policy first announced in April 2022 by then-Conservative Prime Minister Boris Johnson and signed by both countries in 2023. Under the five-year agreement, asylum seekers who arrived in the UK illegally - such as via small boats across the English Channel - would be relocated to Rwanda for processing. If their asylum claims were successful, they would be granted permanent residency in Rwanda, not the UK. In return for taking in the migrants, the UK government agreed to pay Rwanda an initial GBP 120 million through the Economic Transformation and Integration Fund (ETIF), plus an additional GBP 20,000 to GBP 30,000 per relocated individual to cover temporary accommodation and resettlement costs.

3. What led to the deal?
The Conservative government's primary goal was to curb illegal entry into the country. Small boat crossings across the English Channel into the UK increased from just 299 in 2018 to 45,774 in 2022. By resettling asylum seekers in the East African country as opposed to providing them a safe haven within the country, the UK aimed to drastically reduce the number of migrants attempting the dangerous Channel crossings. Officials also argued that the threat of deportation to Rwanda would undermine the business model of the human smuggling networks that facilitate the journeys. The policy is also part of a broader push to rein in immigration and asylum numbers, which had been increasing since the 2015 European migrant crisis.

4. Why did the Labour government suspend the deal?
When Keir Starmer became Prime Minister following Labour's general election victory in July 2024, he immediately declared the Rwanda plan "dead and buried" on his first day in office. The Labour government viewed the scheme as an “expensive gimmick". Before its cancellation, the UK had already spent roughly GBP 700 million on the policy, yet only four people - all of whom were volunteers - had actually been relocated to Kigali. Labour deemed this a waste of taxpayer money and pledged to redirect the funds toward delivering vital border security reforms and scaling up removals of those with no legal right to stay.

5. Why did Rwanda file a case against the UK?
After the UK walked away from the agreement, Rwanda filed an arbitration case against the UK at the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in The Hague in November 2025. Rwanda sued for over GBP 100 million, claiming the UK had breached the terms of the treaty. Specifically, they demanded two outstanding payments of GBP 50 million each, scheduled for the second and third years of the deal, plus compensation. Rwanda's Justice Minister, Emmanuel Ugirashebuja, argued his country had incurred "significant costs" preparing for the partnership, and complained that the UK didn't give Kigali the courtesy of advance notice, leaving Rwandan leaders to read about the cancellation in the media.

6. What next for the UK, Rwanda, and the migration issue?
With the arbitration settled, Rwanda is pivoting to other international partnerships, while the UK is shifting its focus to a domestic enforcement strategy. Having scrapped the deportation scheme, London is gambling heavily on its new Border Security Command to dismantle human smuggling networks. However, the underlying maritime crisis continues to swell. Despite the policy pivot, Channel crossings in small boats rose by 13 percent in 2025, reaching 41,472 arrivals - the second-highest annual total on record. As 2026 crossings continue at a relentless pace, the UK faces the reality that curbing irregular migration requires far more than just closing the book on Rwanda.

Akshath Kaimal is a Research Assistant at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru, and is part of the NIAS Pakistan Reader and Africa Studies teams.

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April 2026 | CWA # 2076

Anu Maria Joseph

Three years of War in Sudan, DRC-M23 talks in Switzerland and the collapse of the peace agreement in Tigray

Report Review

April 2026 | CWA # 2075

R Preetha

The US-Iran War Fallouts on the Asia Pacific, Energy Security and Supply Chains

Five Takeaways of the UNDP Report, April 2026

CW Note

April 2026 | CWA # 2074

Brighty Ann Sarah

Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire:

Asymmetric Terms, Fragile Truce and Israeli Occupation

CW Note

April 2026 | CWA # 2073

Akshath Kaimal

The US-Iran War, Week Eight:

A Fragile Ceasefire, Attempts to Control Hormuz and the Stalled Talks in Islamabad

Special Commentary

April 2026 | CWA # 2072

Anu Maria Joseph

Three Years of War in Sudan

Prolonged Stalemate, Humanitarian Cost, External Interventions and Regional Fallouts

Conflict Weekly

April 2026 | CWA # 2071

NIAS Global Politics Team

Three Years of Civil War in Sudan I The US-Iran War, Week Eight I Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire

Review of the UNDP Report on Military Escalation in the Middle East I Conflict Weekly Column on Africa

Conflict Weekly Special Edition

April 2026 | CWA # 2070

NIAS Global Politics Team

Peace and Conflicts This Quarter (January–March 2026)

The US-Iran War I Conflicts in Africa I The War in Ukraine I China-Japan Tensions I Pakistan-Afghanistan Clashes

Peace and Conflicts This Quarter (January–March 2026)

April 2026 | CWA # 2069

Padmashree Anandhan

The War in Ukraine

Expanding Drone Warfare, Russia's Strategic Patience and Ukraine's Diplomatic Outreach

Peace and Conflicts This Quarter (January–March 2026)

April 2026 | CWA # 2068

Femy Francis

China-Japan Tensions

Escalating Defence Posturing and Economic Decoupling

Peace and Conflicts This Quarter (January–March 2026)

April 2026 | CWA # 2067

Anu Maria Joseph

Conflicts in Africa

Continuing Conflicts in Sudan, South Sudan and DR Congo, Security issues in Nigeria, and Political Instability in Madagascar

Peace and Conflicts This Quarter (January–March 2026)

April 2026 | CWA # 2066

Akshath Kaimal

The Pakistan-Afghanistan Conflict

Recurrent Clashes, Defiant Taliban, Contesting Narratives and Emerging China’s Role

The World This Quarter

April 2026 | CWA # 2065

Lakshmi Venugopal Menon

The Middle East (Jan–Mar 2026):

The US-Iran War, Israel-Hamas Conflict and their interconnected fallouts

The World This Quarter

April 2026 | CWA # 2064

Anwesha Ghosh

Afghanistan (Jan–Mar 2026):

Gender Repression, Leadership Rifts, Regional Realignments and Clashes with Pakistan

The World This Quarter

April 2026 | CWA # 2063

Ramya B

Russia (Jan-Mar 2026)

Assertive Military Posture, Attempts for an Economic Turnaround and Search for Partners

The World This Quarter

April 2026 | CWA # 2062

Himani Pant

Europe (Jan-Mar 2026)

Trade diversification & FTAs, Increased defence spending, Tightening irregular migration and Economic slowdown

The World This Quarter

April 2026 | CWA # 2061

S Shaji

Africa (Jan-Mar 2026)

Elections, Civil Wars, Militancy and Peace Initiatives

The World This Quarter

April 2026 | CWA # 2060

Nanda Kishor M S

India and the Neighbourhood (Jan-Mar 2026)

Continuity, Caution and Calculated assertiveness

The World This Quarter

April 2026 | CWA # 2059

Adarsh Vijay

India and the World (Jan-Mar 2026)

Maintaining Strategic Autonomy, Balancing the US relations and Resetting the China ties

The World This Quarter

April 2026 | CWA # 2058

Nishchal N Pandey & Mahesh Raj Bhatta

Nepal (Jan-Mar 2026)

Political Upheaval, Generational Change and Economic Uncertainty

The World This Quarter

April 2026 | CWA # 2057

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar (Jan-Mar 2026)

An Illegitimate Regime’s Consolidation Game

The World This Quarter

April 2026 | CWA # 2056

Ashik J Bonofer

Southeast Asia (Jan-Mar 2026)

Deteriorating situation in Myanmar, Philippines as the ASEAN Chair, New government in Thailand, and Economic & Environmental challenges

The World This Quarter

April 2026 | CWA # 2055

Haans J Freddy

East Asia (Jan-Mar 2026)

China’s military operations near Taiwan, Japan-China tensions and South Korea’s security challenges

The World This Quarter

April 2026 | CWA # 2054

Amrita Jash

China’s External Landscape (Jan-Mar 2026):

Regional assertion, Pragmatic recalibration with the West and Avoiding military entanglement in the Middle East

The World This Quarter

April 2026 | CWA # 2053

Anand V

China’s Domestic Landscape (Jan-Mar 2026):

The "Two Sessions," Recalibrated growth targets, Technology prioritization, and Military purges

The World This Quarter

April 2026 | CWA # 2052

Shreya Upadhyay

The United States (Jan-Mar 2026)

Tariffs, Ukraine, Iran and Operationalization of Trump’s World Order

The World This Week

April 2026 | CWA # 2051

TWTW Special Edition

TWTW Special Edition, 350th Issue

THE WORLD THIS QUARTER (Jan-Mar 2026)

Conflict Weekly

April 2026 | CWA # 2050

IPRI Team

The US-Iran War, Week Five: Widening Conflict, Houthi Involvement, and Trump’s Renewed Threats

PR Commentary

March 2026 | CWA # 2043

Abhimanyu Solanki

Escalatory Airpower, Hybrid Retaliation, and Regional Security

Reassessing the Pakistan–Afghanistan Confrontation and Its Implications for India

March 2026 | CWA # 2042

R Preetha

Transnational organized crime, Emerging technologies, Global security environment and ‘Diverse threat vectors’

Five Takeaways of the US Annual Threat Assessment (ATA) Report for 2026

March 2026 | CWA # 2041

Aparna A Nair

China-Vietnam 3+3 Strategic Dialogue

Defence, Diplomacy and Public Security

March 2026 | CWA # 2040

Femy Francis

China's Interests and Strategies in the US-Iran War

Why Beijing’s support for Iran is rhetoric and muted

March 2026 | CWA # 2039

Femy Francis

Trump-Xi Meeting

Why did Trump reschedule it? What does that mean?

March 2026 | CWA # 2038

Anu Maria Joseph

Sudan-Chad tensions and the Boko Haram attack in Nigeria's Maiduguri

March 2026 | CWA # 2037

Padmashree Anandhan

Massive drone attacks, Growing energy leverage and Drifting peace efforts

March 2026 | CWA # 2036

Brighty Ann Sarah

Continuing Israel-Hezbollah Confrontation

Expanding Israeli Military Operations and the Reshaping of Southern Lebanon

March 2026 | CWA # 2035

Akshath Kaimal

Pakistan-Afghanistan Conflict

Broken ceasefire, Expanding military strikes and Worsening humanitarian situation

March 2026 | CWA # 2034

Rohini Reenum

The US-Iran War, Week Three

Multi-front Escalation and Economic Fallouts

Global Politics Early Bird

March 2026 | CWA # 2033

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal after elections:

Five major challenges for the new government

The World This Week

March 2026 | CWA # 2032

Global Politics Team

Trump-Xi Meeting I China Interests and Strategies in the US-Iran War I China-Vietnam 3+3 Strategic Dialogue I US Annual Threat Assessment 2026 Takeaways

Regional Roundups: From East Asia to the Americas

Conflict Weekly

March 2026 | CWA # 2031

IPRI Team

The US-Iran War, Week Three | Pakistan-Afghanistan Clashes | Continuing Israel-Hezbollah Confrontation

Weekly Column on Ukraine & Africa

Global Politics Review

March 2026 | CWA # 2030

Siddhi Halyur

State power, Entrenched authoritarian rule, Structural inequalities, Gender Constraints, and Restricted civic space in Middle East

Four Takeaways of the Human Rights Watch Report on the Middle East

Global Politics Review

March 2026 | CWA # 2029

Aishal Hab Yousuf

Economic modernization without political liberalization, Legal systems as instruments of political control, Shrinking civic space and Sports Washing

Five Takeaways of the HRW Report 2026 on the Middle East (Saudi Arabia and the UAE)

Global Politics Review

March 2026 | CWA # 2028

Jayasree

Legislative suppression of dissent, Promotion of patriarchal norms, Forced assimilation of minorities and Censorship in China

Four Takeaways of the HRW Report 2026

Global Politics Review

March 2026 | CWA # 2027

Rebecca Ann Oommen

Rampant armed conflicts and the Erosion of Democracy in Africa

Five Takeaways of HRW Report 2026

Global Politics Review

March 2026 | CWA # 2026

Manik Dhawan

Significant setback to Human Rights situation in Europe

Four Takeaways of HRW Report 2026

Global Politics Review

March 2026 | CWA # 2025

Santhosh Guru PR

Alarming rise of Authoritarianism and Autocracy in the Americas

Five Takeaways of Human Rights Watch Report 2026

March 2026 | CWA # 2024

Lekshmi MK

The UN and the Iran-US War

UNSC Resolution 2817 between “Clear and Unified Message” and “Manifest Injustice”

March 2026 | CWA # 2023

Femy Francis

China’s Two Sessions 2026

New Five-Year Plan, Ethnic Unity Law, and an Enhanced Defence Budget

March 2026 | CWA # 2022

Padmashree Anandhan

Continuing Strikes and Inconsistent Diplomatic Efforts

March 2026 | CWA # 2021

Anu Maria Joseph

Political instability in Madagascar and spreading violence in South Sudan

March 2026 | CWA # 2020

Brighty Ann Sarah

Continuing Israel-Hezbollah Confrontation

Attacks in South Lebanon, Beirut’s Conundrum, and Tel Aviv’s Greater Goals

March 2026 | CWA # 2019

Akshath Kaimal

Rising Violence in Nigeria

Limited State Capacity, Multiple Actors, and a Complex Security Environment

March 2026 | CWA # 2018

Rohini Reenum

The US-Iran War, Week Two

Expanding Fronts, Shifting Goalposts, and Global Fallout

The World This Week

March 2026 | CWA # 2017

Global Politics Team

China’s Two Sessions | The UNSC Resolution on the US-Iran War

Conflict Weekly

March 2026 | CWA # 2016

IPRI Team

The US-Iran War, Week Two | Rising Violence in Nigeria | Continuing Israel-Hezbollah Confrontation

Weekly Column on Ukraine & Africa

March 2026 | CWA # 2015

Global Politics Team

The World Today #275, 10 March 2026

The World Today

March 2026 | CWA # 2014

Global Politics Team

The World Today #274, 09 March 2026

The World Today

March 2026 | CWA # 2013

Anu Maria Joseph

Violence in South Sudan and the US sanctions on Rwanda

Conflict Weekly Column on Africa

March 2026 | CWA # 2012

Padmashree Anandhan

The War in Ukraine

Long-range strikes, Defence adaptation and the EU’s energy dependence

March 2026 | CWA # 2011

Tanvi Thara Harendra Jha

Canada’s PM Mark Carney’s India Visit

Resetting Economic, Strategic and Cultural Ties

Global Politics Early Bird

March 2026 | CWA # 2010

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal Elections 2026

The Rise of the “New” and the Fall of the “Old”

March 2026 | CWA # 2009

Sreemaya Nair

Nepal Elections 2026

Rise of a new leadership and Reset in political landscape

The World This Week

March 2026 | CWA # 2008

Global Politics Team

Canadian PM's India Visit I Nepal Elections and its Political Reset

March 2026 | CWA # 2007

Global Politics Team

The World Today #272, 06 March 2026

The World Today

Early Bird

March 2026 | CWA # 2006

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal Election 2026, Day One

Peaceful polling, with over 60 per cent turnout

March 2026 | CWA # 2005

Global Politics Team

The World Today #271, 05 March 2026

The World Today

March 2026 | CWA # 2004

Akshath Kaimal

The “Forgotten” South Sudan Conflict

Instability returns, with a fragile peace agreement, uptick in violence and limited international engagement

March 2026 | CWA # 2003

Yesasvi Koganti

PM Modi’s Visit to Israel

From bilateral ties to a special strategic partnership

March 2026 | CWA # 2002

Femy Francis

German Chancellor’s China Visit

Reducing trade deficit and recalibrating economic cooperation with Beijing

March 2026 | CWA # 2001

R Preetha

Trump’s State of the Union Address

Six major takeaways on the economy, border and internal security and Iran

March 2026 | CWA # 2000

Rohini Reenum

The US-Iran War, Week One

Rapid Escalation, Regional Spillover, Global Uncertainty

Conflict Weekly

March 2026 | CWA # 1999

IPRI Team

The US-Iran War, Week One | The Return of Violence to South Sudan

Weekly Column on Ukraine & Africa

February 2026 | CWA # 1998

Anu Maria Joseph

Instability in Sudan

Response to the genocide call and the threats of a regional spillover

February 2026 | CWA # 1997

Padmashree Anandhan

Four Years of War in Ukraine

Continuing Uncertainty

February 2026 | CWA # 1996

Akshath Kaimal

Pakistan-Afghanistan Clashes

Another round of cross-border attacks

March 2026 | CWA # 1995

Global Politics Team

The World Today #269, 03 March 2026

The World Today

March 2026 | CWA # 1994

Global Politics Team

The World Today #268, 02 March 2026

The World Today

PR Commentary

March 2026 | CWA # 1993

D Suba Chandran

The US-Iran Conflict and Pakistan

Balancing Rhetoric, Regional Interests and Global Alignments

Conflict Weekly

February 2026 | CWA # 1992

IPRI Team

Pakistan-Afghanistan Clashes I Fours Years of Ukraine War

Weekly Column on Africa

March 2026 | CWA # 1991

Global Politics Team

Trump’s State of the Union Address | German Chancellor’s China Visit | India’s PM’s Israel Visit

February 2026 | CWA # 1990

Global Politics Team

The World Today #266, 27 February 2026

The World Today

Conflict Weekly

February 2026 | CWA # 1989

IPRI Team

Abu Dhabi Talks on Ukraine I Militant Attacks in Balochistan

CW Columns on Middle East and Africa

February 2026 | CWA # 1988

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine Peace talks in Abu Dhabi

Negotiations without a ceasefire or resolution

February 2026 | CWA # 1987

Akshath Kaimal

Continuing militant attacks in Balochistan

Expanding violence, Security-first response and Missing political dialogue in Pakistan

PR Commentary

February 2026 | CWA # 1986

R Preetha

Pakistan’s Central Asia Boost

Focus on Trade, Defense, Energy and Regional Connectivity

PR Commentary

February 2026 | CWA # 1985

Abhimanyu Solanki

Basant in Pakistan

The return of Basant, and what it signifies

February 2026 | CWA # 1984

Global Politics Team

The World Today #265, 26 February 2026

The World Today

February 2026 | CWA # 1983

Global Politics Team

The World Today #264, 25 February 2026

The World Today

February 2026 | CWA # 1982

Global Politics Team

The World Today #263, 24 February 2026

The World Today

February 2026 | CWA # 1981

Global Politics Team

The World Today #261-262, 23 February 2026

The World Today

February 2026 | CWA # 1980

Global Politics Team

The World Today #259, 20 February 2026

The World Today

February 2026 | CWA # 1979

Global Politics Team

The World Today #258, 19 February 2026

The World Today

February 2026 | CWA # 1978

Global Politics Team

The World Today #256, 17 February 2026

The World Today

February 2026 | CWA # 1977

Anu Maria Joseph

Violence in Nigeria

US military deployment amidst worsening insurgency

February 2026 | CWA # 1976

Lekshmi MK

The War in Ukraine

The Geneva Talks and Growing Negotiation Asymmetry

February 2026 | CWA # 1975

Brighty Ann Sarah

The US-Iran Negotiations in Geneva

Ambiguous Conclusions and Escalating Fears of Military Action

February 2026 | CWA # 1974

Lekshmi MK

Munich Security Conference 2026:

Europe’s Security Concerns, Defence Consolidation and Transatlantic Recalibration

February 2026 | CWA # 1973

Yesasvi Koganti

The Global AI Impact Summit in New Delhi:

Six Major Takeaways

PR Explainer

December 2025 | CWA # 1972

Lekshmi MK

Pakistan-Taliban Peace Talks

Background, Issues, Challenges and Implications

Pakistan in 2025

December 2025 | CWA # 1971

Vani Vyshnavi Jupudi

Pakistan Budget 2025-26

Legislating stabilisation under IMF discipline and coalition constraints

Pakistan in 2025

December 2025 | CWA # 1970

Aparna A Nair

Pakistan & China

Ten Years of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)

Pakistan in 2025

December 2025 | CWA # 1969

Lekshmi MK

Pakistan's Climate Change Challenges

Governance Gaps, Adaptation Deficit, and Climate Finance Vulnerability

PR Explainer

November 2025 | CWA # 1968

Vani Vyshnavi Jupudi

Pakistan and the US

A New opening, or another cycle?

PR Explainer

November 2025 | CWA # 1967

R Preetha

Pakistan and IMF’s Governance and Corruption Diagnostic Assessment

Risks, Reforms and Trajectories

November 2025 | CWA # 1966

Lekshmi MK

Pakistan’s Climate and Water Crisis

Five Questions on Challenges, Capacity and Policies

The World This Week

February 2026 | CWA # 1965

Global Politics Team

AI Impact Summit in New Delhi I Munich Security Conference 2026

Conflict Weekly

February 2026 | CWA # 1964

IPRI Team

US-Iran & Ukraine Negotiations in Geneva I US Military Deployment in Nigeria

CW Columns on Middle East and Africa

February 2026 | CWA # 1963

Global Politics Team

The World Today #255, 16 February 2026

Today in History

The World This Week

February 2026 | CWA # 1962

Global Politics Team

Japan: Sanae Takaichi’s historic win | Honk Kong: Jimmy Lai Sentenced

Regional Roundups: From East Asia to the Americas

Early Bird

February 2026 | CWA # 1961

Lekshmi MK

Sanae Takaichi’s historic win in Japan

What does it mean for domestic politics and regional stability?

Early Bird

February 2026 | CWA # 1960

Femy Francis

Jimmy Lai sentenced for 20 years in Hong Kong: Who, What, and Why

CEAP

February 2026 | CWA # 1959

Yesasvi Koganti

UK and China

PM Keir Starmer’s visit and the Recalibration of Economic, Strategic, and Domestic ties

February 2026 | CWA # 1958

Akshath Kaimal

India-EU Free Trade Agreement: Five Major Takeaways

The focus on expanded cooperation in defence, technology and critical minerals

February 2026 | CWA # 1957

R Preetha

The India–US interim trade framework

Tariff recalibration and Energy and Supply Chain realignment

February 2026 | CWA # 1956

Lekshmi MK

End of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START)

Erosion of arms control, Return of nuclear anxieties, and the New focus on China

The World This Week

February 2026 | CWA # 1955

Global Politics Team

End of the New START I India–US interim Trade Framework I India-EU Free Trade Agreement I UK PM Keir Starmer’s China visit

Regional Roundups: From East Asia to the Americas

February 2026 | CWA # 1954

Nishchal Nath Pandey

Nepal Elections 2026: Political Parties, Gen Z Protests and Hope for a New Beginning

Conflict Weekly

February 2026 | CWA # 1953

IPRI Team

Abu Dhabi Talks on Ukraine I Militant Attacks in Balochistan

Weekly Columns: Conflicts in Africa and the Middle East

CW Column: Conflicts in the Middle East

January 2026 | CWA # 1952

Brighty Ann Sarah

US threats against Iran, and Phase Two operations in Gaza

CW Column: Conflicts in Africa

January 2026 | CWA # 1951

Anu Maria Joseph

Africa: Renewed violence in Ethiopia and a Jihadist attack in Niger

CW Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1950

Lekshmi MK

The War in Ukraine: The Trilateral Talks, and the Deadlock over Donetsk & Security Guarantees for Kyiv

CW Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1949

R Preetha

The United States: ICE Crackdowns, Rising Resistance and the Political/Legal pushback

Conflict Weekly

January 2026 | CWA # 1948

ICE Crackdowns and Resistance in the US I Trilateral Talks on Ukraine

TWTW Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1947

Brighty Ann Sarah

The Pentagon’s National Defence Strategy: Four major takeaways

TWTW Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1946

R Preetha

The Davos Summit 2026

Five Major Takeaways from The World Economic Forum

The World This Week

January 2026 | CWA # 1945

Global Politics Team

The Davos Forum 2026 Takeaways I The US Pentagon’s National Defence Strategy

CW Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1944

Brighty Ann Sarah

Syria: The State victory over the Syrian Democratic Forces

Conflict Weekly Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1943

Anu Maria Joseph

Another major kidnapping in Nigeria and Election announcement in Guinea-Bissau

CW Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1942

Lekshmi MK

Greenland: Trump’s escalation-deescalation approach and Europe’s defence

CW Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1941

Brighty Ann Sarah

The War in Gaza: Trump’s Board of Peace and the Challenges to Phase Two

Conflict Weekly

January 2026 | CWA # 1940

IPRI Team

Trump’s “Board of Peace” in Gaza I Escalation/De-escalation in Greenland

TWTW Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1939

Lekshmi MK

Greenland: Trump’s escalation-deescalation strategy and Europe’s defence

The World This Week

January 2026 | CWA # 1938

Continuing Tensions over Greenland

CW Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1937

Anu Maria Joseph

Instability in Nigeria: Intensifying domestic responses, and questions over Trump’s intervention

CW Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1936

Brighty Ann Sarah

Protests in Iran: Continuing Stalemate and Shifting US Position

Conflict Weekly

January 2026 | CWA # 1935

IPRI Team

Protests in Iran | Instability in Nigeria

The World This Week

January 2026 | CWA # 1934

Global Politics Team

The US, Greenland and Trump's Claims

Conflict Weekly

January 2026 | CWA # 1933

IPRI Team

Protests in Iran, the US Military Intervention in Venezuela and Conflicts in Africa

NIAS Conflict Weekly | The World This Week

January 2026 | CWA # 1932

Global Politics Team