The World This Quarter

CWA # 2233
The World This Quarter
East Asia (Apr-Jun 2026):
Strategic Rebalancing, Neo-Militarisation and Increasing Tensions in Taiwan Straits

Teshu Singh
11 August 2026
Photo Source:

The second quarter in East Asia was marked by strategic competition and economic rebalancing, culminating in significant bilateral visits. Inadvertently, Cross-Strait relations remain the focal point of all tensions and of regional stability. 

1. US President Donald Trump’s State Visit to Beijing 
Amid the ongoing Iran crisis, US President Donald Trump visited Beijing from 13-15 May 2026. This was the first visit of a US President to China since 2017. During the visit, it was agreed that both sides should build a constructive relationship of strategic stability based on fairness and reciprocity. The issue of the Iran crisis, Taiwan, Trade, and Technology were the main highlights of the meeting. During the talks, the two leaders discussed the opening of the Strait of Hormuz and the US war on Iran. Both sides agreed that the Strait “must remain open to support the free flow of energy.” On the issue of Taiwan, China affirmed that Taiwan was “the most important” issue in US-China bilateral relations. The US reiterated that “nothing has changed” in its policy toward Taiwan. While on the issue of trade, China agreed to purchase at least US$17 billion annually of US agricultural products until 2028 and would buy 200 of the US company’s jets. China also agreed to address the concern regarding supply chain shortages related to rare earths and other critical minerals, including yttrium, scandium, neodymium, and indium. In addition, the two sides agreed to establish two new institutions to optimise the bilateral economic relationship: the US-China Board of Trade and the U.S.-China Board of Investment. Overall, the summit was high on rhetoric and less on substance.

2. Xi Jinping’s state visit to North Korea
Soon after hosting the US President, Xi Jinping made his first international tour. He visited Pyongyang from 8-9 June 2026. Xi Jinping was accompanied by his de facto chief of staff Cai Qi, defence minister Dong Jun, foreign minister Wang Yi and commerce minister Wang Wentao. During the visit, Kim Jong Un reiterated North Korea’s stance on the “One-China” Principle. Xi Jinping and Kim Jong Un agreed to deepen high-level cooperation, expand economic and cultural exchanges, and project a united front against external pressure. Amid the changing global scenario, both sides reiterated that no matter how the international situation changes, the traditional friendship of “China and DPRK will not change”. Reportedly, the visit was scheduled against the backdrop of growing ties between North Korea and Russia. Kim Jong Un have been sending troops to Russia to support its war on Ukraine. He has sent troops into combat alongside Russian forces under a mutual defence treaty between Moscow and Pyongyang. The defence treaty was formalised under the North Korea-Russia Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, signed on June 19, 2024, and came into force in December 2024. This year also marks the 65th anniversary of the China-North Korea defence pact. Notably, there was no discussion on North Korea’s denuclearisation. Xi Jinping’s visit was essentially to strengthen the “strategic communication” between the two sides.

3. Rising Tensions between China-Japan over the issue of Neo-Militarization
Yet another development affecting the geopolitics of East Asia during April-June 2026 was deterioration in China-Japan security relations. In April, the cabinet of Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae relaxed the rules restricting Japan’s exports of defence equipment and technology. Since then, China has accused Japan of abandoning its post-1945 pacifist posture and calling it “neo-militarisation”. The usage of the term neo-militarisation itself is contentious. Japan argues they are adopting such measures to deal with the deteriorating situation created by China, especially in the East China Sea and the Taiwan Strait. 
The deterioration in China-Japan relations can be traced to the Japanese PM statement when she said that in case of any attack on Taiwan, there could be a military response from Japan as well. Furthermore, in addition, during the Balikatan 2026 exercise conducted from April 20-May 8, 2026 between the US and the Philippines, Japan participated actively. For the first time, the Japanese Self-Defence Forces participated in live-fire drills and defensive operations. Subsequently, at the Shangri-La Dialogue, China accused Japan of neo-militarisation. The Japanese Defence Minister Shinjiro Koizumi denied any of the charges and argued that Japan remains committed to international law. 

4. Developments in Cross-Strait relations
The developments in Cross-Strait relations and subsequent repercussions emanating from it loomed over the developments in East Asia. China tried to influence the domestic and external policies of Taiwan. China invited Taiwan’s opposition leader, Cheng Li-wun to visit China. She visited China from April 7-12, 2026, on a “peace mission”. The Cheng Li-wun visit was particularly significant for Cross-Strait relations, as it was the first visit by a Kuomintang Party leader since 2016. China also orchestrated the denial of airspace to Taiwanese President William Lai, who was visiting Eswatini in Africa from 22 to 26 April 2026 to attend the 40th anniversary of King Mswati’s accession and his 58th birthday. Under the pressure from China, three African countries, the Seychelles, Mauritius and Madagascar, denied Taiwanese President William Lai’s aircraft permission to fly through their airspace. Later, President Lai secretly visited the country. 

China continues violating Taiwan’s air space and waters. China violated the Taiwanese Air Defence Identification Zone around 217 times in the month of May. The China Coast Guard  (CCG) entered waters near Kinmen island (Taiwanese county just a few kilometres from China). There was also one incursion in Pratas Island (Dongsha which is the Taiwanese atoll in the South China Sea) in May. The CCG entered the restricted waters near Kinmen Island four times in the month of May. 

Subsequently, Taiwan held tabletop military exercises. The exercise was aimed at stimulating a response to a potential maritime quarantine by China. The exercise simulated a scenario in which China, without imposing a full blockade, demands that domestic and foreign vessels using Taiwanese ports complete their declarations through Chinese customs system. Taiwan is taking concrete steps to prepare for any Chinese maritime coercion that may threaten Taiwan’s international trade and critical imports. Overall, the unfolding of  situation in the Taiwan Strait remains one of the region’s most significant security concerns. 

5. The visit of the President of the Republic of Korea (ROK) to India
During this quarter, one of the major visits from East Asia to India was by the President of the Republic of Korea (ROK), H.E. Lee Jae Myung, to India from 19-21 April 2026. There were discussions to upgrade the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA). The two leaders highlighted a shared vision of VOYAGES (Vision for Operations of Yard Assisted Growth with Efficiency and Scale)  
During the visit, India-South Korea signed 21 agreements. A total of 15 MOUs were signed between two countries and six new announcements regarding launch of the Economic Security Dialogue, Establishment of Distinguished Visitors Programme (DVP), Launch of dialogue between the two Foreign Ministries on Global Themes, including Climate Change, Arctic, and Maritime Cooperation, ROK joining Indo Pacific Oceans Initiative, ROK joining International Solar Alliance and India joining Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI) and Commemoration of the Year 2028-29 as Year of India-ROK Friendship were made. The visit helped to deepen cooperation in key sectors and further contribute to regional and global security. The major outcome of the visit was a joint strategic vision, a dedicated maritime and shipbuilding framework, economic partnership upgrades, and clean energy cooperation. It largely covers shipbuilding, semiconductors, artificial intelligence and co-production of arms. 

To Conclude:
Overall, the East Asian region was active in terms of regional diplomacy and strategic balancing. The geopolitical importance of this region is immense. The countries of the region engaged with major power and participated in various multilateral and minilateral forums. The region remains a centrepiece of geopolitical rivalry and technological competition. Thereby creating opportunities and challenges for global politics. 

About the author

Dr Teshu Singh is a Research Fellow at the Indian Council of World Affairs (ICWA), New Delhi. The views expressed are personal.


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Indian PM Modi's visit to the Maldives I Elections to the Upper House in Japan
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1762

Lekshmi MK

Ocean Darkening: 
What is the phenomenon? What are its effects? And who are more vulnerable?
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1749

R Preetha

Africa as the Hunger Epicenter
Of the 13 Global Hunger Hotspots, 8 are in Africa: Five reasons why
The World This Week
July 2025 | CWA # 1748

GP Team

The World This Week #318
PM Modi’s Visit to Trinidad and Tobago & Ghana, One big beautiful bill, and Quad Foreign Ministers Meeting
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1744

Chittrothu Vaihali

EU-Canada Summit 2025
What is security and defence partnership all about?
Conflict Weekly
July 2025 | CWA # 1742

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly # 287-88
The 12 Day War and the Congo-Rwanda Peace Deal
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1738

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Thailand and Cambodia
What was the phone call between PM Shinawatra and President of Senate Hun Sen? What is the border dispute between the two? Why has this become an issue?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1735

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025:
Trump making Europe great again
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1734

GP Team

The World This Week #317
NATO Summit 2025 and Russia-Mali bilateral agreements
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1733

Ananya Dinesh

China and the Pacific Islands 
What was the recent China-PIC joint statement about? What it says, and what it means?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1728

M Kejia

G7 Summit 2025:
The Focus on the Middle East and Trade negotiations
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1726

GP Team

The World This Week #316
China-Central Asia Summit in Kazakhstan, and the G7 Summit in Canada
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1725

Brighty Ann Sarah, R Preetha, Santhiya M, Aparna A Nair & M Kejia

Operation Midnight Hammer: US bombs three nuclear sites in Iran
What were the three Iranian nuclear sites that were targeted? What are the B2 Bombers and Bunker Buster Bombs? What do these attacks mean? What Next?
Conflict Weekly
June 2025 | CWA # 1724

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #286
The Spiralling Israel-Iran Crisis, and the Dangerous Hunger Hotspots
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1721

Rizwana Banu S and Santhiya M

Who are the Afrikaners?
Why is Trump interested in the Afrikaner question in South Africa?
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1720

Lekshmi MK

New WMO Report on Arctic Warming
What are the social, economic and environmental implications of Arctic warming
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1719

J Yamini  

China’s EV Surge
What contributes to the rise of BYD
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1717

J Yamini

Gender Violence in Pakistan:
What are the larger issues in the Noor Mukadam case?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1715

Femy Francis

The US-China:
On Tariffs, Rare Earths and Visas
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1713

GP Team

The World This Week #315
The UN Ocean Conference in France and the US-China Meeting in London
CW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1712

R Preetha

The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1705

GP Team

The World This Week #314
Elections in South Korea and Poland I China and the Pacific Island Countries I Bangladesh Election Announcement 2026
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1703

M Kejia 

Sagarmatha Sambaad in Nepal
Kathmandu’s Global Agenda for the Himalayas
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1700

R Preetha

Ethiopia bans the TPLF
What does the TPLF ban mean for the Pretoria agreement? What next for Ethiopia?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1694

Aashish Ganeshan

The US:
Harvard vs Trump Administration
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1691

GP Team

The World This Week #313
China-ASEAN-GCC Summit I President Macron's visit to South East Asia I Trump Vs Harvard
The World This Week
May 2025 | CWA # 1690

GP Team

The World This Week #312
Elections in Romania, Portugal & Poland I UK-EU Summit
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1689

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine
Continuing Russia’s Aerial Attacks, despite exchange of prisoners
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1688

Ayan Datta

Gaza
The Humanitarian Crisis and Israel’s Renewed Offensive
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1685

Aparna A Nair

UK-EU Summit:
First step towards a reset
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1683

Aashish Ganeshan

Elections in Portugal:
The Rise of Chega Party and the Search for Political Stability
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1679

Aashish Ganeshan

US in the Middle Easr
Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1678

Gauri Gupta

China in Latin America
China-CELAC forum: Strengthening ties with Latin America and Caribbean
The World This Week
May 2025 | CWA # 1677

GP Team

The World This Week #310-311
China in Latin America and the Carribbean I Trump's Middle East Visit I Denmark as the new Arctic Chair
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1675

Lekshmi MK

Turkey:
PKK disbands after 40 years of armed insurgency
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1673

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine:
The Discussion in Turkiye and the Elusive Ceasefire
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1671

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

US, Ukraine and Russia:
Air attacks amidst a Minerals deal and Ceasefire Proposals
Global Politics Early Bird
May 2025 | CWA # 1670

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Singapore Elections in 2025:
People’s Action Party (PAP) Wins, Again
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1667

R Preetha and Brighty Ann Sarah

East Asia:
Tough Tariff Negotiations with the US
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1666

Padmashree Anandhan

The US-Ukraine
The mineral deal with the US
Conflict Weekly
May 2025 | CWA # 1665
Conflict Weekly # 280-81
India-Pakistan De-escalation I Ukraine Discussion in Istanbul I The Battle over Port Sudan I Disbanding of PKK in Turkiye I France-Algeria Diplomatic Tensions
Global Politics Early Bird
May 2025 | CWA # 1663

R Preetha

Canada Elections 2025:
What do the results convey? What next for Mark Carney?
Conflict Weekly 250th Issue
October 2024 | CWA # 1480

IPRI Team

This Week in History
July 2024 | CWA # 1413

Ramya B

Global Politics Early Bird
May 2024 | CWA # 1336

Femy Francis

This Week in History
April 2024 | CWA # 1275

Ramya B

NIAS Global Politics Database
March 2024 | CWA # 1251

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
This Week in History
March 2024 | CWA # 1246

Sivasubramanian K

NIAS Global Politics Database
February 2024 | CWA # 1226

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
The World This Week
November 2023 | CWA # 1148

GP Team

The War in Ukraine
October 2023 | CWA # 1091

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri

Issues for Europe
NIAS Pakistan Weekly
October 2023 | CWA # 1087

PR Team

The World This Week
October 2023 | CWA # 1083

GP Team

Conflict Weekly
August 2023 | CWA # 1049

IPRI Team

IPRI Quarterly Forecasts I Triggers, Trends, and Trajectories
July 2023 | CWA # 1012

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar continues to burn
The World This Week
July 2023 | CWA # 1009

GP Team

2022: The World This Year
December 2022 | CWA # 879

Padmashree Anandhan

The Ukraine War
2022: The World This Year
December 2022 | CWA # 872

Sapna Elsa Abraham

Europe: Heatwaves, Wildfires, Droughts, and Ice Melt in Alps
November 2022 | CWA # 838

Rishma Banerjee

Tracing Europe's droughts
NIAS Africa Weekly
March 2022 | CWA # 705

NIAS Africa Team

In Focus: Libya
The World This Week: 150th Issue
December 2021 | CWA # 630

GP Team

Europe in 2021
Pakistan Reader
October 2021 | CWA # 588

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

TLP is back again
NIAS Fortnightly on Science, Technology & International Relations
August 2021 | CWA # 528

STIR Team

Space Tourism
GLOBAL PROTEST MOVEMENTS
September 2020 | CWA # 337

Anju Annie Mammen

The FATF Meeting, February 2020
February 2020 | CWA # 235

Lakshmi V Menon

Science, Technology and International Relations
September 2019 | CWA # 162

Lakshman Chakravarthy N

5G: A Primer
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 71

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 70

Nasima Khatoon

The Maldives
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 69

Harini Madhusudan

India
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 68

Sourina Bej

Bangladesh
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 67

Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer

Afghanistan
United States
July 2018 | CWA # 47

Rahul Arockiaraj

East Asia
June 2018 | CWA # 26

Siddhatti Mehta