CW Note

CWA # 2238
CW Note
Ethiopia:
The war threat in Tigray

Anu Maria Joseph
13 August 2026
Photo Source:

In the news
On 1 August, Al Jazeera reported that a new wave of fighting broke out in Ethiopia’s Tigray region between the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and the federal forces. The violence comes after the Pretoria Peace Agreement of November 2022 and a four-year lull.

According to Al Jazeera, hundreds of Ethiopians from the northern Tigray region have crossed to Sudan this week, fearing another war.

Al Jazeera quoted the TPLF as saying that the fighting involved heavy artillery and drones between the Ethiopian army and Tigray rebels in the Shererina region, near the Sudanese border. The rebels also blamed the federal government of launching a “large-scale infantry offensive.” There has been no official statement from the federal government. 

Issues at large
1. Ethiopia’s continuing Tigray problem
Tigray is one of the 12 federal regions of Ethiopia, divided on ethnic lines. However, demographically Tigrayans constitute only six per cent of the total population. Until 2018, the minority TPLF dominated Ethiopian politics for three decades, which fuelled resentment from other ethnic groups, including Oromia, Amhara, and Afar. In 2018, Abiy Ahmed came to power after a popular protest led by the Oromo and Amhara ethnic groups that overthrew the TPLF government. After coming to power, the Abiy administration targeted TPLF members, removed them from key portfolios and arrested them on corruption charges. The tensions between the TPLF and Abiy administration increased with the signing of the Eritrea-Ethiopia 2018 peace agreement, which ceded Tigray territory to Eritrea. In between the tensions with the TPLF, Abiy’s centralised reforms to unify Ethiopia led to widespread discontent from ethnic groups. TPLF accused Abiy’s administration of marginalising the Tigray community. The tensions escalated into a full-scale violent conflict which lasted for two years.??

2. The longstanding War in Tigray
The War began in 2021 when the TPLF attacked the Northern Command headquarters of the federal forces. It was fought between the federal forces, Amhara Special Forces and allied militias on one side, and the TPLF and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) on the other. Widespread human rights abuses, unlawful killing, torture, sexual violence, and ethnic cleansing were reported during the war. According to the UN, it killed more than 600,000 people and displaced over 5.1 million people internally. The region also faced a famine during the war, affecting 350,000 people. Several mediation efforts by Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Sudan, South Sudan, the African Union and IGAD, and international actors such as the US, EU and the UN failed. Later, a peace deal was signed between the warring sides in November 2022, mediated by the US, Kenya, South Africa and Nigeria. 

3. A peace deal and its challenges
Despite the peace deal, the Tigray region remained fragile. The agreement discussed four major developments: disarmament of TPLF and withdrawal of external forces from Tigray, unhindered humanitarian access to Tigray, the restoration of constitutional order and the protection of fundamental human rights. However, these provisions were never fully implemented. Additionally, post-agreement reforms by Abiy’s administration triggered parallel ethnic violence across other regions. The regional ethnic forces of Tigray, Amhara and Oromia violently resisted Abiy’s attempt to integrate all ethnic armed forces into the federal forces. It led to multiple instances of violent conflicts across different ethnic regions between 2022 and 2025. Four years after the peace deal, the promised elections were never conducted in Tigray, and the interim administration was never dissolved, which was later forcefully replaced by the TPLF. Eritrean forces allegedly continue to occupy northern regions of Tigray and exacerbate tensions. The HRW in June 2024 reported ethnic cleansing of Tigrayans after the peace agreement. Only half of the 2.1 million IDPs have returned after the war. According to a WFP report in January this year, 80 per cent of the Tigray population requires humanitarian support. Four years after the peace deal, the federal administration restricts Tigray from access to humanitarian aid, health care, internet and communications.

4. Recent tensions and preparation for another war
TPLF hardliners, instead of signing the 2022 peace deal, had always wanted to continue after a short ceasefire to regroup. The extremist elements in Fano groups of Amhara, which supported the federal forces in the war, also wanted to continue the war. Later, the Fano militia of Amhara became an adversary to the government when the latter ceded the disputed territories to Tigray under the peace agreement. TPLF began the preparations for another war early this year. The war became imminent when it forcefully dismantled the regional interim administration and set up its own illegal administration. The TPLF hardliners have allegedly aligned with Eritrea while the other Tigray faction is siding with the federal administration. According to Human Rights Watch’s report on 9 July, the TPLF has been forcefully recruiting civilians and preparing for another war. The tensions escalated during the recent general election, in which Tigray was excluded, which the federal government referred to as “unfavourable conditions.”

In perspective
First, the peace deal never ended the conflict. The November 2022 peace deal was a major achievement towards peace in Tigray. However, slow and incomplete implementation of the provisions has led the region to the brink of another war. The TPLF hardliners’ disagreement with the federal government and internal divisions have led to a remilitarisation in the region. The group aims for an absolute territorial claim over the region. The developments imply the war is imminent.?

Second, the recent developments have been shaping another war. The TPLF has been preparing for the war. The developments during the past six months, including TPLF’s forced recruitment, weapons proliferation, and restoration of the pre-war council in April, were ignored by regional and international actors, especially the assigned monitors and observers of the peace agreement. The ignorance and inaction have brought Ethiopia to the brink of another war. 

Third, the near future increasingly points to another full-scale war. The peace deal has been compromised, implementation and monitoring mechanisms have failed, TPLF is adamant about starting another war, and the federal government’s response to the recent wave of violence implies another full-scale war in Tigray immediately. A renewed war, involving several internal and external actors, will be catastrophic, prolonged and deadly. It will also have overarching implications for the region already ravaged by another civil war in the neighbouring Sudan. 

About the author

Anu Maria Joseph is a Non-Resident Fellow at the Subhas Chandra Bose Chair on International Relations, Chanakya University.


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EU-Canada Summit 2025
What is security and defence partnership all about?
Conflict Weekly
July 2025 | CWA # 1742

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly # 287-88
The 12 Day War and the Congo-Rwanda Peace Deal
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1738

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Thailand and Cambodia
What was the phone call between PM Shinawatra and President of Senate Hun Sen? What is the border dispute between the two? Why has this become an issue?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1735

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025:
Trump making Europe great again
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1734

GP Team

The World This Week #317
NATO Summit 2025 and Russia-Mali bilateral agreements
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1733

Ananya Dinesh

China and the Pacific Islands 
What was the recent China-PIC joint statement about? What it says, and what it means?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1728

M Kejia

G7 Summit 2025:
The Focus on the Middle East and Trade negotiations
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1726

GP Team

The World This Week #316
China-Central Asia Summit in Kazakhstan, and the G7 Summit in Canada
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1725

Brighty Ann Sarah, R Preetha, Santhiya M, Aparna A Nair & M Kejia

Operation Midnight Hammer: US bombs three nuclear sites in Iran
What were the three Iranian nuclear sites that were targeted? What are the B2 Bombers and Bunker Buster Bombs? What do these attacks mean? What Next?
Conflict Weekly
June 2025 | CWA # 1724

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #286
The Spiralling Israel-Iran Crisis, and the Dangerous Hunger Hotspots
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1721

Rizwana Banu S and Santhiya M

Who are the Afrikaners?
Why is Trump interested in the Afrikaner question in South Africa?
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1720

Lekshmi MK

New WMO Report on Arctic Warming
What are the social, economic and environmental implications of Arctic warming
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1719

J Yamini  

China’s EV Surge
What contributes to the rise of BYD
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1717

J Yamini

Gender Violence in Pakistan:
What are the larger issues in the Noor Mukadam case?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1715

Femy Francis

The US-China:
On Tariffs, Rare Earths and Visas
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1713

GP Team

The World This Week #315
The UN Ocean Conference in France and the US-China Meeting in London
CW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1712

R Preetha

The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1705

GP Team

The World This Week #314
Elections in South Korea and Poland I China and the Pacific Island Countries I Bangladesh Election Announcement 2026
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1703

M Kejia 

Sagarmatha Sambaad in Nepal
Kathmandu’s Global Agenda for the Himalayas
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1700

R Preetha

Ethiopia bans the TPLF
What does the TPLF ban mean for the Pretoria agreement? What next for Ethiopia?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1694

Aashish Ganeshan

The US:
Harvard vs Trump Administration
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1691

GP Team

The World This Week #313
China-ASEAN-GCC Summit I President Macron's visit to South East Asia I Trump Vs Harvard
The World This Week
May 2025 | CWA # 1690

GP Team

The World This Week #312
Elections in Romania, Portugal & Poland I UK-EU Summit
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1689

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine
Continuing Russia’s Aerial Attacks, despite exchange of prisoners
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1688

Ayan Datta

Gaza
The Humanitarian Crisis and Israel’s Renewed Offensive
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1685

Aparna A Nair

UK-EU Summit:
First step towards a reset
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1683

Aashish Ganeshan

Elections in Portugal:
The Rise of Chega Party and the Search for Political Stability
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1679

Aashish Ganeshan

US in the Middle Easr
Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1678

Gauri Gupta

China in Latin America
China-CELAC forum: Strengthening ties with Latin America and Caribbean
The World This Week
May 2025 | CWA # 1677

GP Team

The World This Week #310-311
China in Latin America and the Carribbean I Trump's Middle East Visit I Denmark as the new Arctic Chair
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1675

Lekshmi MK

Turkey:
PKK disbands after 40 years of armed insurgency
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1673

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine:
The Discussion in Turkiye and the Elusive Ceasefire
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1671

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

US, Ukraine and Russia:
Air attacks amidst a Minerals deal and Ceasefire Proposals
Global Politics Early Bird
May 2025 | CWA # 1670

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Singapore Elections in 2025:
People’s Action Party (PAP) Wins, Again
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1667

R Preetha and Brighty Ann Sarah

East Asia:
Tough Tariff Negotiations with the US
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1666

Padmashree Anandhan

The US-Ukraine
The mineral deal with the US
Conflict Weekly
May 2025 | CWA # 1665
Conflict Weekly # 280-81
India-Pakistan De-escalation I Ukraine Discussion in Istanbul I The Battle over Port Sudan I Disbanding of PKK in Turkiye I France-Algeria Diplomatic Tensions
Global Politics Early Bird
May 2025 | CWA # 1663

R Preetha

Canada Elections 2025:
What do the results convey? What next for Mark Carney?
Conflict Weekly 250th Issue
October 2024 | CWA # 1480

IPRI Team

This Week in History
July 2024 | CWA # 1413

Ramya B

Global Politics Early Bird
May 2024 | CWA # 1336

Femy Francis

This Week in History
April 2024 | CWA # 1275

Ramya B

NIAS Global Politics Database
March 2024 | CWA # 1251

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
This Week in History
March 2024 | CWA # 1246

Sivasubramanian K

NIAS Global Politics Database
February 2024 | CWA # 1226

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
The World This Week
November 2023 | CWA # 1148

GP Team

The War in Ukraine
October 2023 | CWA # 1091

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri

Issues for Europe
NIAS Pakistan Weekly
October 2023 | CWA # 1087

PR Team

The World This Week
October 2023 | CWA # 1083

GP Team

Conflict Weekly
August 2023 | CWA # 1049

IPRI Team

IPRI Quarterly Forecasts I Triggers, Trends, and Trajectories
July 2023 | CWA # 1012

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar continues to burn
The World This Week
July 2023 | CWA # 1009

GP Team

2022: The World This Year
December 2022 | CWA # 879

Padmashree Anandhan

The Ukraine War
2022: The World This Year
December 2022 | CWA # 872

Sapna Elsa Abraham

Europe: Heatwaves, Wildfires, Droughts, and Ice Melt in Alps
November 2022 | CWA # 838

Rishma Banerjee

Tracing Europe's droughts
NIAS Africa Weekly
March 2022 | CWA # 705

NIAS Africa Team

In Focus: Libya
The World This Week: 150th Issue
December 2021 | CWA # 630

GP Team

Europe in 2021
Pakistan Reader
October 2021 | CWA # 588

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

TLP is back again
NIAS Fortnightly on Science, Technology & International Relations
August 2021 | CWA # 528

STIR Team

Space Tourism
GLOBAL PROTEST MOVEMENTS
September 2020 | CWA # 337

Anju Annie Mammen

The FATF Meeting, February 2020
February 2020 | CWA # 235

Lakshmi V Menon

Science, Technology and International Relations
September 2019 | CWA # 162

Lakshman Chakravarthy N

5G: A Primer
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 71

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 70

Nasima Khatoon

The Maldives
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 69

Harini Madhusudan

India
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 68

Sourina Bej

Bangladesh
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 67

Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer

Afghanistan
United States
July 2018 | CWA # 47

Rahul Arockiaraj

East Asia
June 2018 | CWA # 26

Siddhatti Mehta