Conflict Weekly 15

CWA # 277
Conflict Weekly 15
Ceasefire and Self Rule in Yemen, Syrian war trial in Germany, SIPRI annual report on military spending, and Low civilian casualties in Afghanistan 

IPRI Team
29 April 2020
Photo Source: SIPRI

IPRI Conflict Weekly, 29 April 2020, Vol.1, No. 15

A Padmashree, Sourina Bej, Harini Sha and Sukanya Bali 

Yemen: The Saudi-led coalition extends ceasefire, while the UAE-backed STC announces self-rule
In the news 
Amid the persisting violence by the Houthi rebels, the Saudi-led coalition on 24 April extended the unilateral ceasefire in Yemen by one month in an effort to contain the coronavirus outbreak. The impact of the violence on the fragile health infrastructures in Yemen remains critical. 

The Houthis continued with their demand for a complete ceasefire and lift of air and sea blockade.

However, the most important development of the week in Yemen took place outside the Houthis controlled territories. The Southern Transitional Council which is supported by the UAE announced its plan to establish self-rule in the southern province of Yemen. 

Issues at large
Saudi Arabia led military coalition declared a unilateral ceasefire in Yemen for two weeks on 9 April. It was further extended last week by the coalition. However, Iran backed Houthi rebels rejected the ceasefire declared and called for the lifting of the blockade imposed by the coalition. 

The blockade imposed by Saudi Arabia and its allies has choked the people and the Houthi rebels of food and essential medical supplies to fight the pandemic. Around 70 per cent of the population are malnourished and lack medical supplies due to the sealing of the border. The coalition has taken over the oil fields and restricted oil exports by 50 per cent, further choking the oil revenues for the country. 

The latest development in Yemen is not the ceasefire extension, but the announcement by the Southern Transitional Council (STC) to establish autonomous rule in the southern province against the Internationally Recognised Government (IRG). While the UAE has continued to back the STC separatists despite its withdrawal from Yemen in 2019, the IRG has been supported by Saudi Arabia. 

In 2019, the STC agreed to the Riyadh Agreement along with the ICG. Now the self-rule announcement upsets that.

In perspective
Saudi Arabia has three significant challenges in Yemen now.  First, it has to tackle domestic criticisms to stop the costly intervention in Yemen. Second, it has to manage the coalition as the STC is supported by the UAE. Third, support from the international community during the humanitarian crisis is also not in place. This makes it impossible for Saudi Arabia to sustain its control in Yemen. 

The domestic conflict in Yemen is more significant than external interferences. A conflict triangle exists now between the Houthis, IRG, and STC that are fighting for power in Yemen. Peace in the region depends on the UAE’s capability to convince the separatists, which will, in turn, bring down the internal tensions.

 

For the first time, the Syrian war criminals stand trial   
In the news
On 22 April the trial of two Syrian officials began in the south-western German town of Koblenz. The officials, who defected from the Syrian regime in 2014, are charged with war crimes. Since the Syrian civil war started nine years ago, this is the first time that members close to the Bashar al-Assad regime are facing charges of crimes against humanity and are going to face trial in a foreign land. 

The accused, Anwar Raslan and Eyad al-Gharib had sought political asylum from Germany in 2019 with an aim to escape the civil war in Syria in totality. However, their asylum plea was rejected and will face the trial for being part of oppressive state machinery.    

Issues at large 
Both the defectors undergoing the current trial were members of the notorious intelligence service of Syria called the Branch 251. When the conflict started as members of the intelligence unit, they arrested, tortured, killed, and raped protesters and opposition figures before defecting to Germany. They have committed 58 murders at Branch 251 and oversaw the torture of at least 4,000 people as a commanding officer between 29 April 2011 and 7 September 2012. In the course of the application of asylum, the defectors did not exhibit remorse or tried to protect their past. 

The prosecution of the Syrian defectors by the German prosecutors in a German court against the crimes that were committed in Syria is possible due to Germany's Code of Crimes Against International Law. The code came into force in June 2002 and incorporates the principle of universal jurisdiction, which allows German courts to prosecute crimes against international law even if they were not committed in Germany and that neither the perpetrators nor the victims are of German origin. 
With the current trial of the Syrian officials, Berlin has once again shown the efficiency of its war crime units and a powerful signal that human rights abusers cannot rest in comfort in another country after committing crimes that shook the consciousness of humanity.  
 
In perspective 
First, the trial puts in perspective the nature of Assad’s regime and the culture of impunity, torture, and oppression in Syria. When the accused test guilty it will lay bare the workings of a violent system that suppressed and murdered thousands of civilians. This also throws light on the series of chemical attacks, assassinations that the regime has been charged off committing but until now no one with a direct connection to Assad has been indicted. 

Second, the trial brings a poetic justice to the refugee crisis that started after the civil war in 2016. The overcrowded boats carrying Syrians refugees to the European shores continue even today. Greece has grappled with thousands of refugees in its camps and picked up the bodies of other thousands that wash up its shores.      

Last, the Syrian diaspora in Berlin played an important role in registering their complaints on the crimes against humanity by the regime. The evidence against Raslan has come from the work of various Syrian exile groups in Europe that have collected 8,00,000 pieces of documentary evidence from the Syrian conflict.  
 

SIPRI Report says United States, China, India, Russia, and Saudi Arabia are the five largest spenders
In the news
On 26 April, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) in its annual report concluded that the global military expenditure in the last year had been the highest in a decade. The report highlights an increase in military spending by 3.6 per cent from 2018, the largest since 2010. 

The five largest military spenders in 2019 are the United States, China, India, Russia, and Saudi Arabia and their cumulative military expenditure accounted for 62 per cent of the total global expenditure. 

And for the first time two Asian countries - China and India, figure in the top three military spenders in the world.       

Issues at large
SIPRI publishes a comprehensive annual update on military expenditure every year. 

Since the 2008 financial crisis, the global military spending of 1.9 trillion dollars in 2019 was the highest and probably represents a peak in global expenditures. While China increased its military expenditure by 5.1 per cent, India’s expenditure grew by 6.8 per cent from the year 2018. 

The report identifies the growing tensions with both China and Pakistan as the major drivers for India’s military spending. Japan and South Korea were the other Asian countries named by SIPRI as the largest military spenders. 

The SIPRI report highlights that the annual military expenditure in the region has continuously increased since 1989. In the global share of military expenditures, the United States contributes heavily with 732 billion dollars that accounts for 38 per cent of the global share. The report identifies that perceived threats of great power politics and competition with China might have led to the recent growth in the US military spending. 

In perspective
The significant increase in military spending amongst the democratic countries should cause an alarm to the fundamental liberal ideas of cooperation and co-existence at the international level. In an increasingly globalised world, the possibility of war has reduced, but low-intensity conflicts have continued among many countries. The perceived threats of a possible war have kept alive the countries’ military expenditures. 

In 2020, the outbreak of coronavirus is likely to drain the economy. In this scenario, an accelerated trend of military spending might be reversed in the upcoming years.
 

The UN Report on Afghanistan: Civilian casualties in 2020 at the lowest since 2012 
In the news
On 27 April the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) released the first-quarter report on the Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflicts. According to the report, since 2012, civilian casualties in the country has remained at the lowest with 1,293 fatalities. In 2020, the casualties in the country decreased by 29 per cent as compared to the first quarter in 2019.

Issues at large
After a weeklong ‘reduction in violence’ from 22 to 28 February this year, Afghanistan witnessed an increase in attacks on civilians in March. 

According to the report, there are four main actors responsible for civilian casualties. The anti-government actors account for 55 per cent of civilian casualties, of which 39 per cent were by Taliban and 13 per cent by ISIL-KP (causing 710 civilian casualties with 282 killed and 428 injured). Pro-government actors, including both Afghan national security forces and international military forces, are responsible for 32 per cent (412) of civilian casualties. The report highlighted that the highest number of attacks were conducted through ground engagement, followed by targeted killing and non-suicidal IEDs. It further bifurcates the nature of attacks based on the kind predominantly carried out by the pro and anti-government actors.

International troops are inclined to withdraw from Afghanistan, after the US-Taliban deal. The last civilian casualty by the international military forces was on 17 February in the region that continues to face attacks from the Taliban. The UNAMA documented that the pro-government attacks were more responsible for child casualties in this quarter.

The incidents on healthcare workers have seen a rise in the first quarter. Presently Afghanistan has 1,828 cases, and the number of attacks on health workers had shut down many clinics. The Taliban indicated in a statement, to work with international organisations in combatting the virus, As per the report there have been 18 incidents impacting health care workers, out of which 17 were claimed by the Taliban. Two of these attacks were accounted for after the Taliban’s statement.

In perspective
First, as per the report, in the first quarter, there is a decline in casualties as compared to 2019. This has to become a trend in the next quarters to put an end to the long war in the country.
Second, the prisoner release has been one of the priorities for the Taliban. As long as the government and Taliban fail to come to terms and begin the intra-Afghan talks, the dangers to civilian casualties are likely to continue. 

About the authors 
A Padmashree and Harini Sha are Research Interns at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS) and Sukanya Bali and Sourina Bej are Research Associates at NIAS.

NIAS Conflict Weekly is an academic endeavour of the International Peace Research Initiative (IPRI) at the National Institute of Advanced Studies. It aims to track, interpret and analyse conflicts and peace processes across the world with a special emphasis on South Asia. Conflict Weekly brings to the research community every Wednesday a weekly alert of events, updates, and analyses on potential and ongoing peace processes and conflicts in the world. For earlier alerts in the Conflict Weekly series, click here.


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December 2025 | CWA # 1931

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025
State of Global Politics 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1930

Aparna A Nair

State of Global Politics 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1924

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025
State of Global Politics 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1914

Preetha Renganarayanan

State of Global Politics 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1913

Rohini Reenum

State of Global Politics 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1912

Lekshmi MK

State of Global Politics 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1911

Swati Sood

State of Global Politics 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1905

Femy Francis

State of Peace and Conflict 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1902

Brighty Ann Sarah

State of Peace and Conflict 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1893

Lekshmi MK

State of Peace and Conflict 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1889

Femy Francis

State of Peace and Conflict 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1881

Sunidhi Sampige

China Reader
December 2025 | CWA # 1864

Femy Francis

Ten Takeaways of a SCMP Interview with a former PLA Colonel
TWTW Note
December 2025 | CWA # 1861

Femy Francis

China Reader
CW Column: The Conflicts in The Middle East
November 2025 | CWA # 1859

Brighty Ann Sarah

CW Column: The War in Ukraine
November 2025 | CWA # 1858

Padmashree Anandhan

This Week in History
August 2025 | CWA # 1801

R Preetha

28 August 1963
Martin Luther King's "I Have a Dream" speech and the Civil Rights Movement in the US
The World This Week
August 2025 | CWA # 1790

GP Team

The World This Week#323-324
The Trump-Putin meeting & the US-China tariff extension
TWTW note
August 2025 | CWA # 1780

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

Trump tariffs:
Weaponization of access to the US economy
The World This Week
August 2025 | CWA # 1779

GP Team

The World This Week#322
US tariffs on India, Brazil and Canada & the EU-US trade deal
This Week in History
August 2025 | CWA # 1778

Lekshmi MK

28 July 1914
Austria-Hungary declares war on Serbia, starting the First World War
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1770

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

Pakistan-Afghanistan relations:
Why the focus on terrorism, refugees, and Uzbekistan as the third partner?
The World This Week
July 2025 | CWA # 1769

GP Team

The World This Week#321
Indian PM Modi's visit to the Maldives I Elections to the Upper House in Japan
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1762

Lekshmi MK

Ocean Darkening: 
What is the phenomenon? What are its effects? And who are more vulnerable?
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1749

R Preetha

Africa as the Hunger Epicenter
Of the 13 Global Hunger Hotspots, 8 are in Africa: Five reasons why
The World This Week
July 2025 | CWA # 1748

GP Team

The World This Week #318
PM Modi’s Visit to Trinidad and Tobago & Ghana, One big beautiful bill, and Quad Foreign Ministers Meeting
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1744

Chittrothu Vaihali

EU-Canada Summit 2025
What is security and defence partnership all about?
Conflict Weekly
July 2025 | CWA # 1742

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly # 287-88
The 12 Day War and the Congo-Rwanda Peace Deal
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1738

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Thailand and Cambodia
What was the phone call between PM Shinawatra and President of Senate Hun Sen? What is the border dispute between the two? Why has this become an issue?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1735

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025:
Trump making Europe great again
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1734

GP Team

The World This Week #317
NATO Summit 2025 and Russia-Mali bilateral agreements
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1733

Ananya Dinesh

China and the Pacific Islands 
What was the recent China-PIC joint statement about? What it says, and what it means?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1728

M Kejia

G7 Summit 2025:
The Focus on the Middle East and Trade negotiations
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1726

GP Team

The World This Week #316
China-Central Asia Summit in Kazakhstan, and the G7 Summit in Canada
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1725

Brighty Ann Sarah, R Preetha, Santhiya M, Aparna A Nair & M Kejia

Operation Midnight Hammer: US bombs three nuclear sites in Iran
What were the three Iranian nuclear sites that were targeted? What are the B2 Bombers and Bunker Buster Bombs? What do these attacks mean? What Next?
Conflict Weekly
June 2025 | CWA # 1724

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #286
The Spiralling Israel-Iran Crisis, and the Dangerous Hunger Hotspots
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1721

Rizwana Banu S and Santhiya M

Who are the Afrikaners?
Why is Trump interested in the Afrikaner question in South Africa?
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1720

Lekshmi MK

New WMO Report on Arctic Warming
What are the social, economic and environmental implications of Arctic warming
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1719

J Yamini  

China’s EV Surge
What contributes to the rise of BYD
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1717

J Yamini

Gender Violence in Pakistan:
What are the larger issues in the Noor Mukadam case?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1715

Femy Francis

The US-China:
On Tariffs, Rare Earths and Visas
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1713

GP Team

The World This Week #315
The UN Ocean Conference in France and the US-China Meeting in London
CW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1712

R Preetha

The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1705

GP Team

The World This Week #314
Elections in South Korea and Poland I China and the Pacific Island Countries I Bangladesh Election Announcement 2026
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1703

M Kejia 

Sagarmatha Sambaad in Nepal
Kathmandu’s Global Agenda for the Himalayas
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1700

R Preetha

Ethiopia bans the TPLF
What does the TPLF ban mean for the Pretoria agreement? What next for Ethiopia?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1694

Aashish Ganeshan

The US:
Harvard vs Trump Administration
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1691

GP Team

The World This Week #313
China-ASEAN-GCC Summit I President Macron's visit to South East Asia I Trump Vs Harvard
The World This Week
May 2025 | CWA # 1690

GP Team

The World This Week #312
Elections in Romania, Portugal & Poland I UK-EU Summit
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1689

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine
Continuing Russia’s Aerial Attacks, despite exchange of prisoners
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1688

Ayan Datta

Gaza
The Humanitarian Crisis and Israel’s Renewed Offensive
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1685

Aparna A Nair

UK-EU Summit:
First step towards a reset
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1683

Aashish Ganeshan

Elections in Portugal:
The Rise of Chega Party and the Search for Political Stability
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1679

Aashish Ganeshan

US in the Middle Easr
Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1678

Gauri Gupta

China in Latin America
China-CELAC forum: Strengthening ties with Latin America and Caribbean
The World This Week
May 2025 | CWA # 1677

GP Team

The World This Week #310-311
China in Latin America and the Carribbean I Trump's Middle East Visit I Denmark as the new Arctic Chair
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1675

Lekshmi MK

Turkey:
PKK disbands after 40 years of armed insurgency
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1673

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine:
The Discussion in Turkiye and the Elusive Ceasefire
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1671

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

US, Ukraine and Russia:
Air attacks amidst a Minerals deal and Ceasefire Proposals
Global Politics Early Bird
May 2025 | CWA # 1670

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Singapore Elections in 2025:
People’s Action Party (PAP) Wins, Again
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1667

R Preetha and Brighty Ann Sarah

East Asia:
Tough Tariff Negotiations with the US
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1666

Padmashree Anandhan

The US-Ukraine
The mineral deal with the US
Conflict Weekly
May 2025 | CWA # 1665
Conflict Weekly # 280-81
India-Pakistan De-escalation I Ukraine Discussion in Istanbul I The Battle over Port Sudan I Disbanding of PKK in Turkiye I France-Algeria Diplomatic Tensions
Global Politics Early Bird
May 2025 | CWA # 1663

R Preetha

Canada Elections 2025:
What do the results convey? What next for Mark Carney?
Conflict Weekly 250th Issue
October 2024 | CWA # 1480

IPRI Team

This Week in History
July 2024 | CWA # 1413

Ramya B

Global Politics Early Bird
May 2024 | CWA # 1336

Femy Francis

This Week in History
April 2024 | CWA # 1275

Ramya B

NIAS Global Politics Database
March 2024 | CWA # 1251

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
This Week in History
March 2024 | CWA # 1246

Sivasubramanian K

NIAS Global Politics Database
February 2024 | CWA # 1226

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
The World This Week
November 2023 | CWA # 1148

GP Team

The War in Ukraine
October 2023 | CWA # 1091

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri

Issues for Europe
NIAS Pakistan Weekly
October 2023 | CWA # 1087

PR Team

The World This Week
October 2023 | CWA # 1083

GP Team

Conflict Weekly
August 2023 | CWA # 1049

IPRI Team

IPRI Quarterly Forecasts I Triggers, Trends, and Trajectories
July 2023 | CWA # 1012

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar continues to burn
The World This Week
July 2023 | CWA # 1009

GP Team

2022: The World This Year
December 2022 | CWA # 879

Padmashree Anandhan

The Ukraine War
2022: The World This Year
December 2022 | CWA # 872

Sapna Elsa Abraham

Europe: Heatwaves, Wildfires, Droughts, and Ice Melt in Alps
November 2022 | CWA # 838

Rishma Banerjee

Tracing Europe's droughts
NIAS Africa Weekly
March 2022 | CWA # 705

NIAS Africa Team

In Focus: Libya
The World This Week: 150th Issue
December 2021 | CWA # 630

GP Team

Europe in 2021
Pakistan Reader
October 2021 | CWA # 588

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

TLP is back again
NIAS Fortnightly on Science, Technology & International Relations
August 2021 | CWA # 528

STIR Team

Space Tourism
GLOBAL PROTEST MOVEMENTS
September 2020 | CWA # 337

Anju Annie Mammen

The FATF Meeting, February 2020
February 2020 | CWA # 235

Lakshmi V Menon

Science, Technology and International Relations
September 2019 | CWA # 162

Lakshman Chakravarthy N

5G: A Primer
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 71

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 70

Nasima Khatoon

The Maldives
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 69

Harini Madhusudan

India
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 68

Sourina Bej

Bangladesh
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 67

Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer

Afghanistan
United States
July 2018 | CWA # 47

Rahul Arockiaraj

East Asia
June 2018 | CWA # 26

Siddhatti Mehta