The World This Week

The World This Week
Half a million COVID deaths in Coronavirus, Russian bounties to Taliban and Putin to remain President till 2036

GP Team
4 July 2020
Photo Source: European CDC

The World This Week # 74, 4 July 2020, Vol 2 No 27

Harini Madhusudan, Sukanya Bali, Sourina Bej and Rashmi BR


Six months on, deaths from COVID-19 pandemic cross half a million globally
What happened?
On 29 June, marking six months since the first reports of the pandemic, the Director-General of WHO in a media brief announced that the global deaths due to the pandemic have crossed half a million (500,000). With the total number of cases at 11,191,810, the current casualty across the world stands at 5,29,127, which is eight per cent of the total number of cases. Approximately 6,330,816 are reported to have been discharged or recovered. 

Across the different regions, North America has the highest number of cases, followed by Europe, Asia, South America, Africa, and Oceania. Europe leads the statistics on casualties along with North America, and South America. These countries have collectively reported over 1,00,000 deaths. 

What is the background?
In six months, the impact of the coronavirus as a pandemic was felt in almost all parts of the world and is continuing to unfold against the following background:

First, the economies begin to open despite an increase in cases. The USA, Russia, Brazil, and India are the top four countries with the maximum number of cases, and yet these countries have also begun to ease the lockdown measures or never really followed a lockdown. Setting a dangerous trend in opening up their economic hubs without flattening the curve, these countries have contributed to the rising global number of cases.   

Second, the multiple waves and the late waves. The impact of the pandemic has varied in different parts of the globe owing to the different intensity of the virus. To a large extent, the region of Asia and Africa, with a higher population and low medical expertise, have consistently reported lesser cases of virus compared to Europe or America. Some regions are still struggling to contain the spread from the first wave. While countries like China and South Korea have reported signs of a second wave. And then, after an initial lull, there is a late wave in Latin America during the recent weeks.  

Last, the failure to generate a global/regional cooperation regime. Though the 'globalized world' led to the spread of the pandemic, the systems that are representative of globalization have not managed to bring collective mechanisms to fight the virus. Countries responded to the COVID-19 at individual capacities. Apart from the global call for the search for the vaccine, the large gap in the success and failures of pandemic management has also impacted the global increase in the cases. 

What does it mean?
First, through the first half of 2020, the pandemic has brought to light the ongoing failures of the existing systems and the inconsistencies that have been leading the spread of the virus at an unpredictable rate. On 3 July alone, the world reported 2,09,028 cases. This indicates until a global strategy to combat the pandemic collectively or the existing systemic fault lines are revisited, the rising numbers will be difficult to arrest. 

Second, multiple labs across the globe have announced to be working on the development of a vaccine, many in the third stage of testing. These show that the following weeks will be crucial for the spread, the resurgence of cases, and the vaccine development.  


Taliban received Russian bounties to kill US troops, claims American news report 
What happened?
On 26 June, the New York Times published a report claiming that American intelligence has confirmed that the Taliban received bounties from the Russian military intelligence agency, for killing the US and NATO forces. They concluded so, after recovery of large amounts of American cash at a Taliban outpost. 

In response, President Donald Trump had claimed that he was never briefed about the intelligence report, denied any knowledge of Russian bounties, and has called it a 'hoax.' The communications director at the White House, Alyssa Farah, called the report "uncorroborated."

Representatives in the US Congress had however asked the President to, "immediately expose and handle this, and stop Russia's shadow war," and has also accused him of "ignoring" it.

The Russian embassy, in a series of tweets, has denied the same saying, "there is no evidence related to the claims about Moscow's collusion with the Taliban" and are only 'groundless accusation' against them.

What is the background?
First, an increase in Russian engagement in Afghanistan. The news report comes amid a background where Russia has been increasingly creating a role for itself in the conflict in Afghanistan.  This was evident  in May 2019, when the Putin administration invited senior members of the Afghan government and the Taliban to celebrate "100 years of Russo-Afghan friendship." Soon after the US-Taliban agreement, Russia along with the US issued a joint statement on not recognizing the Taliban's designation as the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. 

Second, Russia's apprehension on the rise of the Islamic State in Afghanistan. Russia doesn't want the presence of the Islamic State neither in Central Asia, nor near its southern borders through Afghanistan. This apprehension has been the ground pushing Russia to increase its strategic footprint in Afghanistan and also in its fight against the Islamic State in Syria to prevent its spread elsewhere. 

Third, the historical background. Russia seeks to re-evaluate its past experience of the 1980s when the US supported the Afghan-Arab mujahideen against the erstwhile Soviet Union. 

What does it mean?
First, the exit from Afghanistan will now be hard for the US troops, if the Taliban continues to receive support from Russia. This also means that violence in the country will only increase, making the US withdrawal all the more bloody. 

Second, the news report has now led to increased tension within the US government. Trump's position against Russia and the rationale of the US-Taliban agreement will now be increasingly questioned. 

Last, this will also bear an impact on the upcoming elections. If Trump fails to address the Russia-Taliban collusion, the US-Taliban deal may lose its significance as his upcoming election campaign strategy.


'Long Live the President': Russian constitutional reform votes allow Putin power till 2036    
What happened? 
The era of strongmen politics now stands strongly consolidated as Russia votes in favour of the constitutional reforms, thereby allowing Vladimir Putin to nominally seek and secure office for two more terms till 2036. With these new changes, Putin is likely to surpass Joseph Stalin as the longest-serving head of the state. Along with allowing Putin to run for Presidency for two more six-year terms, the Russians in a week-long referendum overwhelmingly upheld the set of constitutional amendments like anti-gay rights and economic reforms. After the public voting, preliminary results released by the Election Commission showed that almost 78  per cent of voters endorsed the amendments, while 21 per cent voted against them and some 65 per cent voters had turned up to cast their ballots. 

What is the background? 
First, the culmination of Putin's pursuit for legacy amid opposition. The Russian Constitution bars more than two consecutive presidential terms. Since 2000 when Putin became the President for the first time, he started his pursuits to remain in power. After his first two presidential term he has swapped the Presidency with Dmitry Medvedv and remained the centre of power as a Prime Minister. After Medvedv stepped down in completing one term, Putin assumed his Presidency again. He is now into his second term that is set to expire in 2024. With an aim to be in power for life, Putin brought about the new constitutional changes that theoretically doesn't change the two-term limit but in practice resets the clock on Putin's terms so that after his term ends he can start afresh. Putin's desire to run again is not public yet, but if he chooses to run for Presidency, his political clout will let him remain in hegemony till 2036 when he will be 83 years old. 

Second, the domestic show of Putin's power amid Coronavirus mishandling. The moment when Putin had announced his intention to reset the presidential term limits, it was never in doubt that Russian public voting will make any difference. Hence this referendum was aimed at driving home a political purpose. It was aimed at a domestic audience who was fast losing its faith on a President who has mishandled the pandemic, led to the suicides of doctors, reduced political freedoms, high standard of living and degraded the rule of law. Putin's amendments did not secure a majority support in Moscow and St. Petersburg, two largest cities with a strong middle-class opposition to 'Putinism.' Rather this urban political discontent was balanced by the support for Putin from the suburban town and rural areas. Kremlin's campaign made a point of directing the attention of these Russians to the promises of an expanded social security net contained in some constitutional amendments.

What does it mean? 
First, with a likely scenario of Putin as the eternal President, the domestic political landscape looks at a strongman politics that is here to stay. It also marks a continuation of a global trend that of rubber stamp exercise of extending the rule of strong leaders as single seats of power. In 2018, the National People's Congress amended the Chinese constitution to remove a two-term cap on the Presidency allowing Xi Jinping to remain President forever thereby returning to the world the era of Lenin, Stalin and Chairman Mao. 

Second, this likely Presidency will not be devoid of challenges. Putin faces global criticism on his leadership and global strategic footprints. From its alleged role in Afghanistan, Libya to the fights in Syria, the position of Putin as a deep-seated proxy leader has been criticized heavily. Russia's relation with West Europe has also come under the scanner for its role in expanding its energy footprint beyond the Baltic. Within the domestic audience, the disconnect between the polity and the public demands will be a challenge for Putin to address. Just like the post-Soviet Russia, these constitutional amendments create an illusion of a modernized, law-based state, but it is as detached from Russian reality as was the 1993 constitution of the then Soviet life.


ALSO, IN THE NEWS...

India and China decide to hold more talks over the LAC standoff
The third round of talks at the Corps Commander level this week, emphasized on the need for more talks between India and China, in order to resolve the tiff at the LAC. It was decided that the talks would continue, in accordance with the agreement between the external affairs ministers of both the countries. Meanwhile, PM Modi, along with the Chief of Defence Staff Bipin Rawat, visited Ladakh and interacted with the Army, Airforce and ITBP personnel, and condemned the neighbour's 'expansionist policy' without taking China's name. 

WTO agrees for a dispute panel over India's import duties
The WTO agreed for setting up an adjudication panel to discuss India's import duties on ICT products. The panel was set up on the second request of the European Union after India blocked the complaints of Japan and Chinese Taipei over the issue. India had blocked EU's request for a panel in February and thus was unable to block it for the second time. China, the US, Russia, Japan, Thailand, Singapore, Pakistan, Indonesia, Canada, Turkey, South Korea, Brazil and Norway have reserved rights to participate in the proceedings. 

India and Japan conduct a naval exercise in the Indian Ocean
The Indian Navy and the Japanese Maritime Self Defence Force conducted a joint training exercise in the Indian Ocean. Aimed at promoting mutual understanding and trust, the exercise revolved around tactical training and communication training. INS Rana and INS Kulush from the Indian Navy, and JS Kashima and JS Shimayuki from the JMSDF participated in the exercise. The timing of the exercise coincides with the prolonged standoff between India and China at the LAC and ASEAN's statement stressing the role of international law in the South China Sea dispute. 

Setback for Macron in French municipal elections
The municipal elections in France witnessed a 'green wave', as the environmentalist Greens won big across major cities of the country. Even in Paris, La République en Marche (LREM) candidate was a distant third with 13 per cent of the vote. The result, in many ways, is a setback for Macron. General discontentment of the public expressed through protests, coupled with the manner in which COVID-19 was handled, showed clearly that Macron's popularity was dwindling. 

Protests engulf Hong Kong, first arrests made under the new National Security Law
Protests erupted soon after Beijing passed the new National Security Law for Hong Kong. On 1 July, a man was detained for holding Hong Kong Independence Flag in Causeway Bay. This was the first arrest under the new law. Since then, ten people were arrested for breaching the law, and 360 others were detained. The UK, on the other hand, has said that up to three million Hong Kong residents will be accommodated in the country and will be provided with a chance for applying for citizenship. 

Russia sends troops to Libya to support Haftar's forces
Russia has been sending more troops and reinforcements to support Khalifa Haftar's forces. According to European and Libyan sources, Russian private military contractors helped Haftar's forces to take control of the country's crucial oil field. The Libyan army and the US also stated that Russian planes transported personnel including Syrian mercenaries, Pantsir air defence system, ammunition and weapons to al-Ghardabiya Airbase in Sirte. 


About the Authors
Harini Madhusudan and Rashmi B R are PhD scholars with the Science Diplomacy Programme at School of Conflict and Security Studies, NIAS. Sukanya Bali and Sourina Bej are Project Associates at National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS).  


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Preetha Renganarayanan

December 2025 | CWA # 1913

Rohini Reenum

December 2025 | CWA # 1912

Lekshmi MK

December 2025 | CWA # 1911

Swati Sood

December 2025 | CWA # 1905

Femy Francis

December 2025 | CWA # 1902

Brighty Ann Sarah

December 2025 | CWA # 1893

Lekshmi MK

December 2025 | CWA # 1889

Femy Francis

December 2025 | CWA # 1881

Sunidhi Sampige

December 2025 | CWA # 1864

Femy Francis

Ten Takeaways of a SCMP Interview with a former PLA Colonel
December 2025 | CWA # 1861

Femy Francis

China Reader
November 2025 | CWA # 1859

Brighty Ann Sarah

November 2025 | CWA # 1858

Padmashree Anandhan

August 2025 | CWA # 1801

R Preetha

28 August 1963
Martin Luther King's "I Have a Dream" speech and the Civil Rights Movement in the US
August 2025 | CWA # 1790

GP Team

The World This Week#323-324
The Trump-Putin meeting & the US-China tariff extension
August 2025 | CWA # 1780

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

Trump tariffs:
Weaponization of access to the US economy
August 2025 | CWA # 1779

GP Team

The World This Week#322
US tariffs on India, Brazil and Canada & the EU-US trade deal
August 2025 | CWA # 1778

Lekshmi MK

28 July 1914
Austria-Hungary declares war on Serbia, starting the First World War
July 2025 | CWA # 1770

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

Pakistan-Afghanistan relations:
Why the focus on terrorism, refugees, and Uzbekistan as the third partner?
July 2025 | CWA # 1769

GP Team

The World This Week#321
Indian PM Modi's visit to the Maldives I Elections to the Upper House in Japan
July 2025 | CWA # 1762

Lekshmi MK

Ocean Darkening: 
What is the phenomenon? What are its effects? And who are more vulnerable?
July 2025 | CWA # 1749

R Preetha

Africa as the Hunger Epicenter
Of the 13 Global Hunger Hotspots, 8 are in Africa: Five reasons why
July 2025 | CWA # 1748

GP Team

The World This Week #318
PM Modi’s Visit to Trinidad and Tobago & Ghana, One big beautiful bill, and Quad Foreign Ministers Meeting
July 2025 | CWA # 1744

Chittrothu Vaihali

EU-Canada Summit 2025
What is security and defence partnership all about?
July 2025 | CWA # 1742

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly # 287-88
The 12 Day War and the Congo-Rwanda Peace Deal
July 2025 | CWA # 1738

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Thailand and Cambodia
What was the phone call between PM Shinawatra and President of Senate Hun Sen? What is the border dispute between the two? Why has this become an issue?
June 2025 | CWA # 1735

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025:
Trump making Europe great again
June 2025 | CWA # 1734

GP Team

The World This Week #317
NATO Summit 2025 and Russia-Mali bilateral agreements
June 2025 | CWA # 1733

Ananya Dinesh

China and the Pacific Islands 
What was the recent China-PIC joint statement about? What it says, and what it means?
June 2025 | CWA # 1728

M Kejia

G7 Summit 2025:
The Focus on the Middle East and Trade negotiations
June 2025 | CWA # 1726

GP Team

The World This Week #316
China-Central Asia Summit in Kazakhstan, and the G7 Summit in Canada
June 2025 | CWA # 1725

Brighty Ann Sarah, R Preetha, Santhiya M, Aparna A Nair & M Kejia

Operation Midnight Hammer: US bombs three nuclear sites in Iran
What were the three Iranian nuclear sites that were targeted? What are the B2 Bombers and Bunker Buster Bombs? What do these attacks mean? What Next?
June 2025 | CWA # 1724

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #286
The Spiralling Israel-Iran Crisis, and the Dangerous Hunger Hotspots
June 2025 | CWA # 1721

Rizwana Banu S and Santhiya M

Who are the Afrikaners?
Why is Trump interested in the Afrikaner question in South Africa?
June 2025 | CWA # 1720

Lekshmi MK

New WMO Report on Arctic Warming
What are the social, economic and environmental implications of Arctic warming
June 2025 | CWA # 1719

J Yamini  

China’s EV Surge
What contributes to the rise of BYD
June 2025 | CWA # 1717

J Yamini

Gender Violence in Pakistan:
What are the larger issues in the Noor Mukadam case?
June 2025 | CWA # 1715

Femy Francis

The US-China:
On Tariffs, Rare Earths and Visas
June 2025 | CWA # 1713

GP Team

The World This Week #315
The UN Ocean Conference in France and the US-China Meeting in London
June 2025 | CWA # 1712

R Preetha

June 2025 | CWA # 1705

GP Team

The World This Week #314
Elections in South Korea and Poland I China and the Pacific Island Countries I Bangladesh Election Announcement 2026
June 2025 | CWA # 1703

M Kejia 

Sagarmatha Sambaad in Nepal
Kathmandu’s Global Agenda for the Himalayas
June 2025 | CWA # 1700

R Preetha

Ethiopia bans the TPLF
What does the TPLF ban mean for the Pretoria agreement? What next for Ethiopia?
June 2025 | CWA # 1694

Aashish Ganeshan

The US:
Harvard vs Trump Administration
June 2025 | CWA # 1691

GP Team

The World This Week #313
China-ASEAN-GCC Summit I President Macron's visit to South East Asia I Trump Vs Harvard
May 2025 | CWA # 1690

GP Team

The World This Week #312
Elections in Romania, Portugal & Poland I UK-EU Summit
May 2025 | CWA # 1689

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine
Continuing Russia’s Aerial Attacks, despite exchange of prisoners
May 2025 | CWA # 1688

Ayan Datta

Gaza
The Humanitarian Crisis and Israel’s Renewed Offensive
May 2025 | CWA # 1685

Aparna A Nair

UK-EU Summit:
First step towards a reset
May 2025 | CWA # 1683

Aashish Ganeshan

Elections in Portugal:
The Rise of Chega Party and the Search for Political Stability
May 2025 | CWA # 1679

Aashish Ganeshan

US in the Middle Easr
Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE
May 2025 | CWA # 1678

Gauri Gupta

China in Latin America
China-CELAC forum: Strengthening ties with Latin America and Caribbean
May 2025 | CWA # 1677

GP Team

The World This Week #310-311
China in Latin America and the Carribbean I Trump's Middle East Visit I Denmark as the new Arctic Chair
May 2025 | CWA # 1675

Lekshmi MK

Turkey:
PKK disbands after 40 years of armed insurgency
May 2025 | CWA # 1673

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine:
The Discussion in Turkiye and the Elusive Ceasefire
May 2025 | CWA # 1671

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

US, Ukraine and Russia:
Air attacks amidst a Minerals deal and Ceasefire Proposals
May 2025 | CWA # 1670

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Singapore Elections in 2025:
People’s Action Party (PAP) Wins, Again
May 2025 | CWA # 1667

R Preetha and Brighty Ann Sarah

East Asia:
Tough Tariff Negotiations with the US
May 2025 | CWA # 1666

Padmashree Anandhan

The US-Ukraine
The mineral deal with the US
May 2025 | CWA # 1665
Conflict Weekly # 280-81
India-Pakistan De-escalation I Ukraine Discussion in Istanbul I The Battle over Port Sudan I Disbanding of PKK in Turkiye I France-Algeria Diplomatic Tensions
May 2025 | CWA # 1663

R Preetha

Canada Elections 2025:
What do the results convey? What next for Mark Carney?
October 2024 | CWA # 1480

IPRI Team

July 2024 | CWA # 1413

Ramya B

May 2024 | CWA # 1336

Femy Francis

April 2024 | CWA # 1275

Ramya B

March 2024 | CWA # 1251

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
March 2024 | CWA # 1246

Sivasubramanian K

February 2024 | CWA # 1226

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
November 2023 | CWA # 1148

GP Team

October 2023 | CWA # 1091

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri

Issues for Europe
October 2023 | CWA # 1087

PR Team

October 2023 | CWA # 1083

GP Team

August 2023 | CWA # 1049

IPRI Team

July 2023 | CWA # 1012

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar continues to burn
July 2023 | CWA # 1009

GP Team

December 2022 | CWA # 879

Padmashree Anandhan

The Ukraine War
December 2022 | CWA # 872

Sapna Elsa Abraham

November 2022 | CWA # 838

Rishma Banerjee

Tracing Europe's droughts
March 2022 | CWA # 705

NIAS Africa Team

In Focus: Libya
December 2021 | CWA # 630

GP Team

Europe in 2021
October 2021 | CWA # 588

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

TLP is back again
August 2021 | CWA # 528

STIR Team

Space Tourism
September 2020 | CWA # 337

Anju Annie Mammen

February 2020 | CWA # 235

Lakshmi V Menon

September 2019 | CWA # 162

Lakshman Chakravarthy N

5G: A Primer
December 2018 | CWA # 71

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal
December 2018 | CWA # 70

Nasima Khatoon

The Maldives
December 2018 | CWA # 69

Harini Madhusudan

India
December 2018 | CWA # 68

Sourina Bej

Bangladesh
December 2018 | CWA # 67

Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer

Afghanistan
July 2018 | CWA # 47

Rahul Arockiaraj

June 2018 | CWA # 26

Siddhatti Mehta