Conflict Weekly 46

CWA # 377
Conflict Weekly 46
Electoral violence in Africa, War crimes in Afghanistan, COVID's third global wave, and Protest escalation in Thailand

IPRI Team
26 November 2020
Photo Source: DW

IPRI # 124, 26 November 2020

Africa: In 2020, electoral violence remains a constant in Uganda, Ivory Coast, Tanzania and Guinea
In the news
On 20 November, one of the strongest opposition voices in Uganda, Robert Kyagulanyi, popularly known as Bobi Wine was released on bail after being arrested for the second time in a month. His last arrest sparked protests across the capital city, Kampala, which resulted in the death of at least 50 civilians. Wine, who is contesting the presidential elections in January 2021, is the biggest challenge to the incumbent Yoweri Museveni who has been in power since 1986. 

However, this incident is not an isolated incident of electoral violence in Africa in 2020. Earlier in November, clashes broke out in Ivory Coast after President Alassane Ouattara was re-elected for a third term; the Opposition claimed that the violence left at least a dozen dead. Similarly, election results were disputed in Tanzania and Guinea. 

Issues at large
First, a background of the political landscape of African countries. Democracy was hurriedly introduced to Africa by Western powers in post-colonial Africa in the 1960s. Many African countries, including Guinea, experienced military dictatorships before transitioning into democracies. Therefore, the foundations of democracy in African countries are shaky and imbibe some of the colonial features, including the incessant need to have control on resources. This, combined with ethnic politics, contributes to a client-patron system wherein the election winner channelized resources to his own ethnic group, has added to violence in elections. 

Second, attempts to amend the constitution. The instances of violence in 2020, especially in Guinea and Cote d'Ivoire, have been shaped by the incumbent Presidents' measures to amend the constitutions to turn the electoral processes in their favour. Alpha Condé of Guinea and Alassane Ouattara of Ivory Coast amended the respective constitutions to allow them to run for the third term as the previous provisions limited the Presidency to two terms. However, amendments and referendums of this nature are not new. Previously, Burkina Faso, Burundi, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo have either attempted to amend the constitution or leaders of these countries have continued to rule despite the two-term limit. 

Third, the clampdown on the opposition. During the Tanzanian elections in 2020, Opposition Leader Tundu Lissu, who previously survived an assassination attempt, fled to Belgium claiming he received threats to his life after he challenged the election results. Other Opposition leaders, mostly belonging to the main Opposition party, Chadema, were arrested on various grounds before the polls. In Ivory Coast, the Opposition went a step ahead and created a rival government under the leadership of former Prime Minister Pascal Affi N'Guessan. He and several others were later arrested and charged with 'terrorism.' Further, governments in the countries going to polls also clamped down on media and civil society workers. For example, in Uganda and Tanzania, several journalists were arrested; opposing politicians were also restricted from accessing the state-owned media. 

In perspective
Democracies have not brought in major changes in Africa. Despite having introduced multiparty politics, there has been a deterioration of the system over the years. This has instilled a sense of resentment and mistrust among the public towards the leaderships as well as institutions of democracy. However, electoral violence is not limited to national elections. According to ReliefWeb, by-elections at constituency level have also witnessed "high levels of violence, intimidation and insecurity." 

Second, institutions like the judiciary and the election commission have not played a strong role in cementing democracies. In some countries, the election commissions have been formed with the funding of the ruling party. This restricts institutions from conducting free and fair elections. Further, the judiciary also plays an important role in ensuring fair elections. According to a report in The Washington Post, if the judiciary is quasi-independent - like in the case of Ivory Coast - Opposition leaders tend to resort to violence; when judiciaries are strong and independent, the Opposition sees it as a reliable source to resolve disputed elections.

Therefore, in order to witness violence-free elections in African countries, it is important to ensure democracy in every institution of the State. Further, opposition parties and civil society too has to be given the space to criticize and express dissent, in order to contribute to democracy. 

Afghanistan: Australian Defence chief apologizes for war crimes in Afghanistan, says commanders will be held accountable 
In the news
On 19 November, the Australian defence force chief, General Angus Campbell released a long-awaited report into alleged war crimes committed in Afghanistan. The inquiry which was conducted by Maj Gen Justice Paul Brereton interviewed 423 witnesses, while investigators produced over 20,000 documents and 25,000 images as part of the probe, investigating conduct between 2005 and 2016. Detailing the findings, Gen Campbell said that the inquiry "found there to be credible information to substantiate 23 incidents of alleged unlawful killing of 39 people by 25 Australian special forces personnel predominantly from the Special Air Service Regiment." Further, the report also found that weapons had been planted on some of the victims, while junior soldiers were sometimes forced to shoot prisoners for a "first kill" as part of an initiative known as "blooding."

While terming the report as "deeply disturbing," Gen Campbell offered an unreserved apology to the Afghan people for "any wrongdoing by Australian soldiers." Further, the Inspector-General of the Australian Defence Force (IGADF) called it "possibly the most disgraceful episode in Australia's military history."

Issues at large
First, the issue of "warrior culture." The Brereton Report documents how a culture of compliance, intimidation, toxic competition and silence in the field hushed up crimes and the "warrior culture" of the Special Air Service Regiment commanders. Units became consumed with preparing for and fighting the war, with cutting corners, bending and ignoring rules becoming the new norm. Not correcting this culture, as it developed, was a failure of both unit and higher command.

Second, the report is helpful to Afghan victims, but it is just a first step. For many Afghan survivors and others harmed by these abuses, the consequences have been devastating. However, in most cases, those who sought justice for these crimes were turned away or threatened. Thus, the larger issues here would be protecting these people from any risks for potential witnesses to crimes.

Third, investigating historic crimes in another country is a difficult, complex, and costly exercise. The special investigator's office should have adequate resources and staff, including relevant experts, analysts, and translators to ensure investigations are handled effectively and efficiently. Thus, following through post, the probe poses as a challenge.

Fourth, the delayed response from countries and institutions. If Australia has woken up to the issue late, the US and the UK have still not done anything yet. Both countries have investigated military personnel for war crimes in Afghanistan and found evidence of abuses, but no one has been held accountable. This shows the lack of initiative not just from countries but the lack of action and ineffectiveness from the International Criminal Court (ICC) to launch its own investigation into the countries' activities in Afghanistan.

In perspective
First, it shows that the military can be as imperfect as any other group in society. However, although Australia may be seen as the front-runner to address this issue, it is going to be a difficult and tedious process given that the report is not a brief of evidence. Further, it goes to show that there is must need comprehensiveness and transparent while investigating war crime to ensure justice.

Second, the findings reflect the painful legacy of a wrenching 19-year conflict. As violence continues to go unabated across Afghanistan, defying a resolution more uncertainty garners with negotiations stalled between the Afghan government and the Taliban, and the country's fate with President Trump's order to reduce American troops from the region further.

Thailand: Protests continue, leaders charged with 'lese majeste' laws
In the news
On 25 November, pro-democracy protestors gathered in front of the SCB Park, the headquarters of Siam Commercial Bank. Demonstrations were originally planned at the Crown Property Bureau (CPB), which manages the monarchy's assets. The venue was moved to avoid a confrontation with the royalists' groups, similar to what happened on 17 November near parliament. The protests at SCB park were largely peaceful except some gunshots which were heard after the protest was called off for the day. One person was injured in the firing.  

On 24 November, 12 protest leaders, including Parit 'Penguin' Chiwarak were issued a summons for 'lese majeste' charges, according to the International Federation for Human Rights. Earlier, on 23 November, Prime Minister Prayut ruled out another coup or imposition of martial law to deal with the pro-democracy protests. On 25 November, he reiterated the same position.

Issues at large
First, the significance of protest sites. In 2017, the law was changed to place the management of the crown property under the direct supervision of the King. Before that, the crown (or monarchy's) property was separate from the King's personal assets. Reforming monarchy and bringing these assets back to the 'people' has been a major demand of the protestors. The selection of CPB came against this backdrop. Even the changed protest site, the Siam Commercial Bank, has the CPB as a major shareholder.

Second, the State response. Even as the State has been restrained in its response during the last four months of protests, there are signs that it is now hardening its stance. Pressing of 'lese majeste' charges (Section 112 of the Thai Criminal Code) against 12 protest leaders is a major development. Criticizing the monarchy is punishable under Section 112 and carries a sentence up to 15 years; it has not been used for the last two years. These charges come after PM Prayut said on 19 November that "all laws and all articles" will be used to tackle protests.

Third, the main demands and their addressal. Prayut's resignation, overhauling the constitution and reforming the monarchy has been the main demands of the protestors. Of them, only the demand for constitution change has been addressed in a limited form until now. On 18 November, government and opposition proposed charter amendment drafts were passed in their first reading by the parliament even as the iLaw draft, which enjoyed popular support, was rejected. The passed charter amendment drafts leave the monarchy untouched.

In perspective
The pro-democracy protests have continued now for more than four months. There have been some successes like normalizing the questioning of monarchy's functioning and role in a country where until recently it was considered a taboo. Protestors have also succeeded in pressurizing the parliament to consider charter reforms, even if the proposed amendments do not reform the monarchy.

However, with the State giving signals of hardening its stance by charging protest leaders with 'lese majeste' laws, it is to be seen what trajectory the protests will take. The clashes between pro-democracy and royalists supporters is also adding to the volatility of ongoing protests.

COVID-19: From Europe to Asia, the third wave and vaccine race grip the world 
In the news
On 25 November, Germany and Russia in Europe reported their highest daily COVID-19 deaths. The German authorities announced that 410 people had passed away due to COVID-19 over the previous 24 hours. The figure comes after the World Health Organization's special COVID-19 envoy David Nabarro told the Solothurner Zeitung on 22 November that Europe was likely to see a third wave of the pandemic in early 2021 before a vaccine can be introduced. "They missed building up the necessary infrastructure during the summer months after they brought the first wave under control. Now we have the second wave. If they don't build the necessary infrastructure, we'll have a third wave early next year," said the WHO envoy. As Europe readies itself for a third wave, Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong in Asia are already reimposing restrictions this week in what they term as the third wave.

The rising cases have coincided with multiple pharma companies releasing their results of phase III vaccine trials. On 23 November, British drugs group AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford said their jointly-developed vaccine against COVID-19 has shown "an average efficacy of 70 per cent" in trials. The Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine candidate, in phase three trials, has been found to be 95 per cent effective, while the US pharmaceutical company Moderna Inc has claimed that its vaccine candidate is 94.5 per cent effective in preventing the deadly virus. China's Sinovac Biotech is expected to release the results of its vaccine vials next month.

Issues at large 
First, the third wave, protests and restrictions mark the pandemic, which is yet to be over. Three European countries have passed the grim milestone of 50,000 deaths: France, Italy, and the UK. The number of fatalities in Germany stands at 14,771. In Russia, more than 23,700 new infections are confirmed, bringing the country's caseload to over 2.1 million — the fifth highest in the world. The number of new infections in Asia such as in Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong is a fraction of those in the West. But countries like India, Indonesia are facing a higher caseload. As Christmas festivities near, countries like Germany have announced fresh restrictions. Consequently, France and the UK are bypassing lockdowns and are looking for exit strategies that will not spiral the countries into economic downturn again. Pandemic fatigue, public complacency and colder weather will further fuel a new surge in virus cases. The governments have faced protests such as in Germany as Merkel goes into partial shutdowns again.   

Second, the race for vaccine corresponds race for vaccine distribution. Speaking on the distribution process of the vaccine, health minister in India said the government would first provide the vaccine to healthcare workers and older adults (above the age of 65). South Africa's president, Norway's prime minister and heads WHO and European Commission wrote a letter to the leaders of G20 countries urging them to provide funds for the COVID-19 vaccines, drugs, tests and distribution. China is rapidly administering vaccines to its public. In Europe, two COVID-19 vaccines could receive conditional market authorization as early as the second half of December. Russia has resumed vaccination of new volunteers with Sputnik V vaccine.

Third, developed countries struggle with price and access. As the West-led vaccine research announces the efficiency of their vaccine vials, the struggle becomes acute for the developing world. Population density, economic inequality and affordability of expensive vials are challenges for the developing countries. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she is worried that efforts to roll out an affordable coronavirus vaccine are moving along too slowly. In India, CEO of Serum Institute Adar Poonawalla said on 19 November that the Oxford vaccine would be available for the general public in April 2021 and priced at a maximum of Rs 1,000 for two necessary doses. Turkey is in talks to sign a contract with China's Sinovac Biotech, Pfizer, and BioNTech within days to buy at least 20 million doses of a COVID-19 candidate vaccine. Mexico has also received doses of a COVID-19 vaccine candidate from Chinese pharmaceutical company CanSino Biologics.

In perspective 
The pandemic is more than over, and the real struggle begins now when a vaccine has to be brought to the last standing person in the world. In developing world where a pandemic has hit employment rate, affordability and access to health care will not be achieved easily. Although G20 leaders said that they would "spare no effort" to ensure fair distribution of vaccines, Merkel said she was concerned that no major agreements had yet been struck for poorer nations, even as wealthy countries have already purchased large numbers of doses from pharmaceutical firms. The need of the hour is global cooperation over vaccine distribution. The pandemic has done little to bring countries together to mitigate disasters.

From around the world
Peace and Conflict from Southeast and East Asia
Hong Kong: Pro-democracy protestor Joshua Wong in custody 
On 23 November, three young protestors and leading figures in the protest movement in Hong Kong including Joshua Wong, were remanded into custody. Their remand came after pleading guilty of inciting a rally during last year's pro-democracy protests, deepening the crackdown against Beijing's critics. Hong Kong was convulsed by seven straight months of huge and often violent democracy rallies last year in which millions took to the streets. Beijing has refused demands for free elections and authorities have pursued democracy supporters with criminal cases and a sweeping new national security law.

China: Pope calls Uighur "persecuted" in a new book, invites ire from Beijing 
On 25 November, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson said, the upcoming book of Pope Francis has, "no factual basis at all". The book "Let Us Dream: The Path to a Better Future," has listed the "Uighurs" among examples of persecuted groups for their faith. "I think often of persecuted peoples," wrote Pope Francis said in one passage. "The Rohingya, the poor Uighurs, the Yazidi — what ISIS did to them was truly cruel — or Christians in Egypt and Pakistan killed by bombs that went off while they prayed in church."

Thailand and Laos: Contention over Sanakham dam
On 24 November, the Thailand government raised concerns about the Sanakham dam Laos is constructing on the Mekong River. The Mekong river forms the border between Thailand and Laos in some sections; Thailand's government believes that the dam project might affect the border. "We won't agree to the project unless we have clear evidence that the border is not affected", said the Secretary-General of Thailand's Office of National Water Resources. Thailand also cited impact on ecology and livelihoods as serious issues and has warned of reconsidering its decision of buying electricity from the dam.

Peace and Conflict from South Asia
India: Fresh violence erupt in Tripura over Bru resettlement question 
On 23 November, at least seven people were injured and three vehicles were burnt as protests against the plan to resettle Brus in Kanchanpur and Panisagar sub-divisions of North Tripura spread across Kumarghat sub-division of Unokoti district. Amongst those injured were five policemen and fireman who incurred the injury during clashes between the agitators and the service personnel. The agitators have over the week imposed a blockade on the National Highway from Assam as the leading group JMC been demanding a rollback on the resettlement plan of 5000 Brus in Northern Tripura. It is believed the plan will change the demography of the close-knit tribal community.

Gilgit-Baltistan: Protests turn violent over election results
On 23 November, around four vehicles and a building of Gilgit-Baltistan's forest department were torched by unidentified persons after a protest arranged by the PPP turned violent. PPP workers and police clashed while the former was protesting against the unofficial results of Gilgit-Baltistan A-2, Gilgit-2 constituency. Gilgit Senior Superintendent of Police said the violence erupted after clashes took place between security forces and protesters. This comes amid the PPP and PML-N levelling allegations of rigging in the recent GB elections. 

Pakistan: Hafiz Saeed convicted in another terror financing case
On 19 November, an Anti-Terrorism Court in Lahore convicted Jamatud Dawa (JuD) leader Hafiz Saeed in another terrorist financing case. The court sentenced him to five-and-a-half-year imprisonment and a fine of Rs. 1,10,000. However, Saeed is already serving two sentences of five-and-a-half-years, handed down to him earlier this year. This means he will not serve any extra jail time. This conviction comes amid Pakistan's efforts to avoid punitive blacklisting by FATF. Further, Saeed's lawyer has also stated that he was convicted under FATF pressure.

Pakistan: Teen guns down Ahmadi doctor injures three others
On 20 November, a teenage boy shot dead a doctor belonging to the Ahmadi community, while his father and two uncles were injured. The suspect is said to have opened fire on them over "religious difference" in Punjab's Nankana Sahib district. Condemning the attacks, the Ahmadi community's spokesperson said, "Ahmadis are not even safe inside their homes. They cannot perform their religious obligations inside the four walls of their home." This attack comes amid the uptick of a targeted attack on members of the Ahmadiya community in recent months. The later incident being last month with the killing of an Ahmadi professor in a targeted attack in Peshawar, allegedly over his religious beliefs.

Afghanistan: Donors pledge billions and call for a lasting ceasefire
On 24 November, several foreign nations, international institutions and the European Union took part at a virtual global conference hosted by Geneva. At the conference, international donors pledged financial and political support for Afghanistan's peace process; however, many imposed tough conditions anticipating a sustainable ceasefire that will help the country rebuild and heal after decades of conflict. Earlier on 23 November, Afghanistan's Foreign Minister Mohammad Haneef Atmar opened the two-day 2020 Geneva Conference on Afghanistan where he said that "peace efforts should lead to a reduction in violence in the country."

Afghanistan: Blasts in Bamiyan and Kandahar
On 24 November, at least 17 people were killed, and over 50 more were wounded in two explosions in the city of Bamiyan. This was the first time that such explosions happened in the otherwise secure province. Later on, 25 November, at least six policemen were wounded in a suicide attack in Kandahar when a suicide bomber detonated an explosive-laden vehicle. So far, no group, including the Taliban, has claimed responsibility for the two attacks. Violence continues to remain high in the country despite efforts for peace.

Peace and Conflict from Central Asia, Middle East and Africa
Nagorno-Karabakh: Azerbaijan says the army has entered Kalbajar district 
On 25 November, the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry said that their forces have entered the Kalbajar region. This is the second of three districts to be handed back by Armenia as part of a deal that ended weeks of fighting over Nagorno-Karabakh. The Kalbajar district was initially scheduled to be ceded on 15 November, but the deadline was postponed by Azerbaijan for humanitarian reasons. This comes after Agdam was ceded on 20 November and which Lachin is to be handed over by 1 December as part of a truce signed two weeks ago that stopped six weeks of military conflict over the breakaway region.

Egypt: Six-nation joint military exercise kicks-off
On 22 November, the Egyptian Armed Forces announced a joint military operation with Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Bahrain, and Sudan, and the UAE had begun at the Mohammed Najeeb base, the largest military base in the Middle East. The exercise, Sword of Arabs, aims to improve military cooperation between Egypt and other Arab countries. It will cover land, naval and air drills. The exercise will end on 26 November (today). 

Israel-Saudi Arabia: Israeli PM meets Saudi Arabia Crown Prince, say media reports
On 22 November, Israeli media said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met Saudi Arabia Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman; the two leaders discussed regional issues relating to Iran and the normalization of ties. Aljazeera cites a Haaretz news report which said that a private jet from Tel Aviv to Neom - where US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was meeting the Prince - was seen grounded for nearly two hours. According to the same report, the private jet was previously used by Netanyahu during his visits to Russia. However, the Foreign Minister of Saudi Arabia later denied the media reports. 

Syria: Fighting between Turkey-backed forces and Kurdish-led forces leaves 11 dead
On 23 November, 11 Turkey-backed gunmen were killed and several injured in northern Syria in a clash with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, the clashes erupted when the gunmen attacked SDF positions. The SDF spokesperson confirmed the attacks but did not mention the casualty on the SDF front. 

Iraq: Alleged ISIL attack leaves 10 dead 
On 21 November, at least six Iraqi security officers and four civilians were killed in a bomb blast in the Salahuddin province of Iraq. The mayor and police have blamed the ISIL for the attack. The attack comes two weeks after 11 people were killed in an ISIL attack on the outskirts of Baghdad. Further, the attack coincides with the countrywide operation by the Iraqi security forces to arrest ISIL fighters; various MPs and leaders have called the latest attack a failure in the fight against terrorism. 

North Africa: Al-Qaeda in North Africa appoints new chief
On 21 November, the SITE monitoring group said the al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) had appointed Abu Obaida Yusuf al-Annabi as its new chief; its founder Abdelmalek Droukdel was killed in June by French military forces. Annabi has strongly opposed the French operations in the Sahel and Maghreb regions and has called for jihad against the French forces. Prior to this, Annabi was the head of the AQIM's Council of Dignitaries and was named in the United States' terrorism blacklist in 2015. 

Ethiopia: Human Rights Commission releases report on the massacre in Tigray
On 24 November, the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission issued a statement revealing a massacre of Amhara and Wolkait ethnic groups in the Mai Kadra region in Tigray amid the ongoing conflict in the region. According to the statement, an informal group of youth, Samri, carried out the massacre, with the support of Tigray civilians and local police, killing at 600 civilians. However, leaders of the Tigray People's Liberation Front have denied any responsibility for the massacre.  

Mozambique: MoU with Tanzanian police to fight the armed group 
On 22 November, Mozambique's state media reported that the country's police forces had signed a memorandum of understanding with Tanzanian police forces to combat the ISIL-linked fighters in Cabo Delgado. The agreement comes after the armed group started raiding villages in the southern regions of Tanzania after crossing the Rovuma River that marks the border between the two countries. Since October 2017, violence in Cabo Delgado has left more than 2,200 people dead and thousands displaced. 

Peace and Conflict from Europe and the Americas
Germany: Foreign Minister condemns the lockdown protesters 
On 22 November, German foreign minister, Heiko Maas, criticized anti-mask protesters comparing themselves to Nazi victims. He accused them says, "Anyone today comparing themselves to Sophie Scholl or Anne Frank is making a mockery of the courage it took to stand up to the Nazis," adding "It trivializes the Holocaust and shows an unbearable forgetting of history. Nothing connects the corona protests with the resistance fighters. Nothing!" This statement came after a young woman took to the stage at a protest against coronavirus restrictions, saying she felt "just like Sophie Scholl." The government's measures introduced to combat the spread of the coronavirus has triggered large protests in Germany, drawing people different sects.

The UK: COVID-19 lockdown to be lifted on 2 December
On November 23, Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced that the English lockdown restrictions would which is to expire on 2 December would be replaced by a new, enhanced, set of local lockdown tiers. With the second wave of COVID-19 hitting Europe, the UK is no exception, As of 24 November, official data shows there have been 1,538,794 confirmed cases of Covid-19 in the UK and 55,838 deaths within 28 days of a positive test. This increase in cases means new stricter lockdown measures may be put in place.

France: Government to introducing new 'ecocide' offense in pollution crackdown
On 22 November, the French government announced the creation of an "ecocide offence" in an attempt to prevent and punish serious environmental damage. Under the new proposal, environmental offenders could be handed a fine of up to 4.5 million euros or 10 years in prison. However, some activists have argued that the government's proposals are still not very comprehensive. Further, this comes after a plan was brought forward by the Citizens' Convention for Climate, which is an assembly consisting of 150 randomly selected citizens established in 2019 by President Emmanuel Macron aimed to reduce France's greenhouse gas emissions.

France: Minister launches probe into forceful eviction of migrants in Paris
On 24 November, the French Interior Minister said he would probe into the clashes that broke out between police and migrants after the police forcefully dismantled a migrant camp in Paris on 23 November. The police dislodged around 500 tents set up by volunteers and later used tear gas to disperse the migrants, mostly Afghans, and the volunteers. The police action comes a week after they cleared another larger, illegal migrant camp on the outskirts of Paris.

Turkey: Trial of 20 Saudi Arabian officials in Khashoggi murder resumes
On 24 November, Turkey resumed the trial of 20 Saudi Arabian officials, including two close aides of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, involved in the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. However, the accused are being tried in absentia. Previously, the 20 accused had left Turkey, and Saudi Arabia refused to extradite them. In 2019, Saudi Arabia, after rejecting Turkey's request for extradition, sentenced five people to death for their direct role in killing Khashoggi and sentenced three to prison for covering up the crime.

Belarus: KGB charges opposition leader with corruption
On 24 November, the Belarusian KGB charged Opposition politician Viktor Babaryko with corruption and money laundering of an amount exceeding USD 60 million. The KGB announced that it completed the "preliminary investigation into the criminal case against top executives of the Belgazprombank bank." The Belgazprombank is a branch of the Russian energy corporation, Gazprom, and Babaryko was the head of the bank before he entered politics.

The United States: Democratic caucus will decide future of Judiciary Committee say, White House
On 24 November, Senator Sheldon Whitehouse stated that he expects the Democratic caucus to decide the future Judiciary leadership of the committee. In his statement, he said, "In the wake of Ranking Member Feinstein's announcement, I look forward to the question of succession on the Senate Judiciary Committee being decided by the caucus," he said. "I will abide by the caucus's decision." This comes after Whitehouse had initially declined to contribute to the possibility of seeking the Judiciary Committee position. This potential clash highlights the challenge the Democrats are likely to face with the party seeking to reconcile the views of progressive demands.

The United States: Biden to receive an intelligence briefing 
On 25 November, a report in the NBC News stated that President-elect Joe Biden is to receive classified presidential daily briefing after President Donald Trump signed off sharing presidential intelligence, according to the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. Although Biden has been receiving lower-level intelligence briefings, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence could not provide him with the presidential daily briefing until the General Services Administration sent a letter of "ascertainment" confirming that Biden won the election. Further, this comes after nearly three-weeks delay of the start of the formal transition process.

The  United States: A scaled-back Thanksgiving
With Thanksgiving around the corner, the celebrations this year is going to be very different. Far from the hustle and bustling, the pandemic has altered holiday plans all over the United States this year. With a second wave bearing down, officials have urged Americans not to travel while others have made social-distancing plans for the holiday. Further, the holiday marked by coming together sees many city residents now facing the sad prospect of spending the holiday alone and isolated. 

Brazil: Protests erupt after Black man killed by supermarket security guards
On 22 November, new demonstrations took place outside Carrefour supermarkets in Brazil to protest the death of a black man by white guards at a Porto Alegre store branch. On 19 November, a video taken in the southern city showed 40-year-old Joao Alberto Silveira Freitas repeatedly being punched in the face and head by a security guard while he is being restrained by another. The video drew attention from social media and triggered the first round of demonstrations on 20 November as the country marked Black Consciousness Day.

About the authors
Lokendra Sharma is a PhD Scholar at the School of Conflict and Security Studies at NIAS; Sourina Bej, Apoorva Sudhakar and Abigail Miriam Fernandez Project Associate and Research Assistants at NIAS.


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The Ebola and the DR Congo:
Multiple Outbreaks, Fragile Healthcare System, and Ineffective Global Responses
CW Column
May 2026 | CWA # 2122

Radhika M Agarwal

The War in Ukraine:
Ballistic missiles, Nuclear drills with Belarus, and the Czech ammunition initiative
CW Column
May 2026 | CWA # 2120

Brighty Ann Sarah

Conflicts in the Middle East
The US-Iran War Week Thirteen: Escalating Hostilities, Tenuous Ceasefire and Tense Negotiations
CW Column
May 2026 | CWA # 2119

Anu Maria Joseph

Conflicts in Africa
The Ebola spread in DR Congo, The Faye-Sonko split in Senegal, and the Deepening US military involvement in Nigeria
TWTW Note
May 2026 | CWA # 2115

Aparna A Nair

The Putin-Xi Summit
Trade, Technology, Security, and Pipeline
Global Politics Explainer
May 2026 | CWA # 2114

Glynnis Winona B

What makes the UAE a global player?
Explaining the Governance, Economy, People, and Strategic Influence of a Small Middle Eastern State
Global Politics Explainer
May 2026 | CWA # 2113

Aishal Hab Yousuf

Sri Lanka and the US-Iran War 
Rising oil imports, Austerity measures and State capacity
The World This Week
May 2026 | CWA # 2111

NIAS Global Politics Team

The Trump-Xi Summit
The Africa Forward Summit 2026 I North Korea's Constitutional Amendment 2026
TWTW Note
May 2026 | CWA # 2110

Aishal Hab Yousuf

The Trump-Xi Summit:
Managing Strategic Competition through Trade, Technology, and Diplomacy
Conflict Weekly
May 2026 | CWA # 2092

NIAS Global Politics Team

The US-Iran War, Week Ten
CW Column on Middle East: Escalating Israeli Aggression in Lebanon I UAE's Covert Manoeuvres
CW Column
May 2026 | CWA # 2091

Brighty Ann Sarah

Conflicts in the Middle East:
Escalating Israeli Aggression in Lebanon I UAEs Covert Manoeuvres
CW Note
May 2026 | CWA # 2090

Brighty Ann Sarah

The US-Iran War, Week Ten:
Fraying Ceasefire, Renewed Negotiations and the Risk of a Stalemate
TWTW Takeaways
May 2026 | CWA # 2088

Nithin V

King Charles's US Visit:
Emphasis on strong bilateral relations, democratic values and security cooperation
TWTW Note
May 2026 | CWA # 2086

Aishal Hab Yousuf

UAEs Exit from OPEC:
Implications for the Middle East and the Energy Market
CW Note
May 2026 | CWA # 2083

Brighty Ann Sarah

The US-Iran War, Week Nine:
Deadlocked Negotiations, Competing Agendas and Domestic Pressure
CW Note
May 2026 | CWA # 2082

Akshath Kaimal

Escalating Violence in Mali:
Between Ethnic Insurgencies, Jihadist Attacks, and Military Coups
TWTW Note
April 2026 | CWA # 2079

Aishal Hab Yousuf

Japans New Defence Posture:
From Post-War Pacifism to Strategic Recalibration and Autonomy
CW Note
April 2026 | CWA # 2074

Brighty Ann Sarah

Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire:
Asymmetric Terms, Fragile Truce and Israeli Occupation
CW Note
April 2026 | CWA # 2073

Akshath Kaimal

The US-Iran War, Week Eight:
A Fragile Ceasefire, Attempts to Control Hormuz and the Stalled Talks in Islamabad
Special Commentary
April 2026 | CWA # 2072

Anu Maria Joseph

Three Years of War in Sudan
Prolonged Stalemate, Humanitarian Cost, External Interventions and Regional Fallouts
Peace and Conflicts This Quarter (JanuaryMarch 2026)
April 2026 | CWA # 2069

Padmashree Anandhan

The War in Ukraine
Expanding Drone Warfare, Russia's Strategic Patience and Ukraine's Diplomatic Outreach
Peace and Conflicts This Quarter (JanuaryMarch 2026)
April 2026 | CWA # 2068

Femy Francis

China-Japan Tensions
Escalating Defence Posturing and Economic Decoupling
Peace and Conflicts This Quarter (JanuaryMarch 2026)
April 2026 | CWA # 2067

Anu Maria Joseph

Conflicts in Africa
Continuing Conflicts in Sudan, South Sudan and DR Congo, Security issues in Nigeria, and Political Instability in Madagascar
Peace and Conflicts This Quarter (JanuaryMarch 2026)
April 2026 | CWA # 2066

Akshath Kaimal

The Pakistan-Afghanistan Conflict
Recurrent Clashes, Defiant Taliban, Contesting Narratives and Emerging Chinas Role
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2065

Lakshmi Venugopal Menon

The Middle East (JanMar 2026):
The US-Iran War, Israel-Hamas Conflict and their interconnected fallouts
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2064

Anwesha Ghosh

Afghanistan (JanMar 2026):
Gender Repression, Leadership Rifts, Regional Realignments and Clashes with Pakistan
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2063

Ramya B

Russia (Jan-Mar 2026)
Assertive Military Posture, Attempts for an Economic Turnaround and Search for Partners
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2062

Himani Pant

Europe (Jan-Mar 2026)
Trade diversification & FTAs, Increased defence spending, Tightening irregular migration and Economic slowdown
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2061

S Shaji

Africa (Jan-Mar 2026)
Elections, Civil Wars, Militancy and Peace Initiatives
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2059

Adarsh Vijay

India and the World(Jan-Mar 2026)
Maintaining Strategic Autonomy, Balancing the US relations and Resetting the China ties
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2058

Nishchal N Pandey & Mahesh Raj Bhatta

Nepal (Jan-Mar 2026)
Political Upheaval, Generational Change and Economic Uncertainty
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2057

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar (Jan-Mar 2026)
An Illegitimate Regimes Consolidation Game
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2056

Ashik J Bonofer

Southeast Asia (Jan-Mar 2026)
Deteriorating situation in Myanmar, Philippines as the ASEAN Chair, New government in Thailand, and Economic & Environmental challenges
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2055

Haans J Freddy

East Asia (Jan-Mar 2026)
Chinas military operations near Taiwan, Japan-China tensions and South Koreas security challenges
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2054

Amrita Jash

Chinas External Landscape (Jan-Mar 2026):
Regional assertion, Pragmatic recalibration with the West and Avoiding military entanglement in the Middle East
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2052

Shreya Upadhyay

The United States(Jan-Mar2026)
Tariffs, Ukraine, Iran and Operationalization of Trumps World Order
March 2026 | CWA # 2039

Femy Francis

Trump-Xi Meeting
Why did Trump reschedule it? What does that mean?
March 2026 | CWA # 2035

Akshath Kaimal

Pakistan-Afghanistan Conflict
Broken ceasefire, Expanding military strikes and Worsening humanitarian situation
Global Politics Early Bird
March 2026 | CWA # 2033

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal after elections:
Five major challenges for the new government
March 2026 | CWA # 2024

Lekshmi MK

The UN and the Iran-US War
UNSC Resolution 2817 between Clear and Unified Message and Manifest Injustice
March 2026 | CWA # 2023

Femy Francis

Chinas Two Sessions 2026
New Five-Year Plan, Ethnic Unity Law, and an Enhanced Defence Budget
March 2026 | CWA # 2019

Akshath Kaimal

Rising Violence in Nigeria
Limited State Capacity, Multiple Actors, and a Complex Security Environment
March 2026 | CWA # 2012

Padmashree Anandhan

The War in Ukraine
Long-range strikes, Defence adaptation and the EUs energy dependence
Global Politics Early Bird
March 2026 | CWA # 2010

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal Elections 2026
The Rise of the New and the Fall of the Old
March 2026 | CWA # 2009

Sreemaya Nair

Nepal Elections 2026
Rise of a new leadership and Reset in political landscape
March 2026 | CWA # 2004

Akshath Kaimal

The Forgotten South Sudan Conflict
Instability returns, with a fragile peace agreement, uptick in violence and limited international engagement
March 2026 | CWA # 2003

Yesasvi Koganti

PM Modis Visit to Israel
From bilateral ties to a special strategic partnership
February 2026 | CWA # 1998

Anu Maria Joseph

Instability in Sudan
Response to the genocide call and the threats of a regional spillover
PR Commentary
February 2026 | CWA # 1985

Abhimanyu Solanki

Basant in Pakistan
The return of Basant, and what it signifies
February 2026 | CWA # 1977

Anu Maria Joseph

Violence in Nigeria
US military deployment amidst worsening insurgency
February 2026 | CWA # 1976

Lekshmi MK

The War in Ukraine
The Geneva Talks and Growing Negotiation Asymmetry
Pakistan in 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1971

Vani Vyshnavi Jupudi

Pakistan Budget 2025-26
Legislating stabilisation under IMF discipline and coalition constraints
Pakistan in 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1970

Aparna A Nair

Pakistan & China
Ten Years of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)
PR Explainer
November 2025 | CWA # 1968

Vani Vyshnavi Jupudi

Pakistan and the US
A New opening, or another cycle?
February 2026 | CWA # 1959

Yesasvi Koganti

UK and China
PM Keir Starmers visit and the Recalibration of Economic, Strategic, and Domestic ties
TWTW Note
January 2026 | CWA # 1946

R Preetha

The Davos Summit 2026
Five Major Takeaways from The World Economic Forum
State of Global Politics 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1931

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025
State of Global Politics 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1924

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025
This Week in History
August 2025 | CWA # 1801

R Preetha

28 August 1963
Martin Luther King's "I Have a Dream" speech and the Civil Rights Movement in the US
The World This Week
August 2025 | CWA # 1790

GP Team

The World This Week#323-324
The Trump-Putin meeting & the US-China tariff extension
TWTW note
August 2025 | CWA # 1780

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

Trump tariffs:
Weaponization of access to the US economy
The World This Week
August 2025 | CWA # 1779

GP Team

The World This Week#322
US tariffs on India, Brazil and Canada & the EU-US trade deal
This Week in History
August 2025 | CWA # 1778

Lekshmi MK

28 July 1914
Austria-Hungary declares war on Serbia, starting the First World War
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1770

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

Pakistan-Afghanistan relations:
Why the focus on terrorism, refugees, and Uzbekistan as the third partner?
The World This Week
July 2025 | CWA # 1769

GP Team

The World This Week#321
Indian PM Modi's visit to the Maldives I Elections to the Upper House in Japan
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1762

Lekshmi MK

Ocean Darkening: 
What is the phenomenon? What are its effects? And who are more vulnerable?
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1749

R Preetha

Africa as the Hunger Epicenter
Of the 13 Global Hunger Hotspots, 8 are in Africa: Five reasons why
The World This Week
July 2025 | CWA # 1748

GP Team

The World This Week #318
PM Modi’s Visit to Trinidad and Tobago & Ghana, One big beautiful bill, and Quad Foreign Ministers Meeting
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1744

Chittrothu Vaihali

EU-Canada Summit 2025
What is security and defence partnership all about?
Conflict Weekly
July 2025 | CWA # 1742

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly # 287-88
The 12 Day War and the Congo-Rwanda Peace Deal
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1738

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Thailand and Cambodia
What was the phone call between PM Shinawatra and President of Senate Hun Sen? What is the border dispute between the two? Why has this become an issue?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1735

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025:
Trump making Europe great again
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1734

GP Team

The World This Week #317
NATO Summit 2025 and Russia-Mali bilateral agreements
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1733

Ananya Dinesh

China and the Pacific Islands 
What was the recent China-PIC joint statement about? What it says, and what it means?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1728

M Kejia

G7 Summit 2025:
The Focus on the Middle East and Trade negotiations
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1726

GP Team

The World This Week #316
China-Central Asia Summit in Kazakhstan, and the G7 Summit in Canada
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1725

Brighty Ann Sarah, R Preetha, Santhiya M, Aparna A Nair & M Kejia

Operation Midnight Hammer: US bombs three nuclear sites in Iran
What were the three Iranian nuclear sites that were targeted? What are the B2 Bombers and Bunker Buster Bombs? What do these attacks mean? What Next?
Conflict Weekly
June 2025 | CWA # 1724

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #286
The Spiralling Israel-Iran Crisis, and the Dangerous Hunger Hotspots
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1721

Rizwana Banu S and Santhiya M

Who are the Afrikaners?
Why is Trump interested in the Afrikaner question in South Africa?
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1720

Lekshmi MK

New WMO Report on Arctic Warming
What are the social, economic and environmental implications of Arctic warming
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1719

J Yamini  

China’s EV Surge
What contributes to the rise of BYD
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1717

J Yamini

Gender Violence in Pakistan:
What are the larger issues in the Noor Mukadam case?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1715

Femy Francis

The US-China:
On Tariffs, Rare Earths and Visas
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1713

GP Team

The World This Week #315
The UN Ocean Conference in France and the US-China Meeting in London
Conflict Weekly
June 2025 | CWA # 1709

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #284-285
Cambodia-Thailand Border Tensions, Protests in the US, and the Indigenous Māori question in New Zealand
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1705

GP Team

The World This Week #314
Elections in South Korea and Poland I China and the Pacific Island Countries I Bangladesh Election Announcement 2026
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1700

R Preetha

Ethiopia bans the TPLF
What does the TPLF ban mean for the Pretoria agreement? What next for Ethiopia?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1694

Aashish Ganeshan

The US:
Harvard vs Trump Administration
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1691

GP Team

The World This Week #313
China-ASEAN-GCC Summit I President Macron's visit to South East Asia I Trump Vs Harvard
The World This Week
May 2025 | CWA # 1690

GP Team

The World This Week #312
Elections in Romania, Portugal & Poland I UK-EU Summit
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1689

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine
Continuing Russia’s Aerial Attacks, despite exchange of prisoners
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1688

Ayan Datta

Gaza
The Humanitarian Crisis and Israel’s Renewed Offensive
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1685

Aparna A Nair

UK-EU Summit:
First step towards a reset
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1683

Aashish Ganeshan

Elections in Portugal:
The Rise of Chega Party and the Search for Political Stability
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1679

Aashish Ganeshan

US in the Middle Easr
Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1678

Gauri Gupta

China in Latin America
China-CELAC forum: Strengthening ties with Latin America and Caribbean
The World This Week
May 2025 | CWA # 1677

GP Team

The World This Week #310-311
China in Latin America and the Carribbean I Trump's Middle East Visit I Denmark as the new Arctic Chair
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1675

Lekshmi MK

Turkey:
PKK disbands after 40 years of armed insurgency
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1673

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine:
The Discussion in Turkiye and the Elusive Ceasefire
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1672

D Suba Chandran

India and Pakistan:
De-escalation and the “New Normal”
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1671

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

US, Ukraine and Russia:
Air attacks amidst a Minerals deal and Ceasefire Proposals
Global Politics Early Bird
May 2025 | CWA # 1670

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Singapore Elections in 2025:
People’s Action Party (PAP) Wins, Again
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1667

R Preetha and Brighty Ann Sarah

East Asia:
Tough Tariff Negotiations with the US
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1666

Padmashree Anandhan

The US-Ukraine
The mineral deal with the US
Conflict Weekly
May 2025 | CWA # 1665
Conflict Weekly # 280-81
India-Pakistan De-escalation I Ukraine Discussion in Istanbul I The Battle over Port Sudan I Disbanding of PKK in Turkiye I France-Algeria Diplomatic Tensions
Global Politics Early Bird
May 2025 | CWA # 1663

R Preetha

Canada Elections 2025:
What do the results convey? What next for Mark Carney?
NIAS Global Politics Database
March 2024 | CWA # 1251

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
NIAS Global Politics Database
February 2024 | CWA # 1226

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
The War in Ukraine
October 2023 | CWA # 1091

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri

Issues for Europe
IPRI Quarterly Forecasts I Triggers, Trends, and Trajectories
July 2023 | CWA # 1012

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar continues to burn
2022: The World This Year
December 2022 | CWA # 879

Padmashree Anandhan

The Ukraine War
Europe: Heatwaves, Wildfires, Droughts, and Ice Melt in Alps
November 2022 | CWA # 838

Rishma Banerjee

Tracing Europe's droughts
NIAS Africa Weekly
March 2022 | CWA # 705

NIAS Africa Team

In Focus: Libya
The World This Week: 150th Issue
December 2021 | CWA # 630

GP Team

Europe in 2021
Pakistan Reader
October 2021 | CWA # 588

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

TLP is back again
NIAS Fortnightly on Science, Technology & International Relations
August 2021 | CWA # 528

STIR Team

Space Tourism
Science, Technology and International Relations
September 2019 | CWA # 162

Lakshman Chakravarthy N

5G: A Primer
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 71

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 70

Nasima Khatoon

The Maldives
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 69

Harini Madhusudan

India
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 68

Sourina Bej

Bangladesh
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 67

Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer

Afghanistan