Conflict Weekly 52

Conflict Weekly 52
GCC lifts Qatar blockade, Iran decides to enrich uranium, Argentina legalizes abortion, French soldiers targeted in Mali, and the AFSPA extended in India's Northeast

IPRI Team
7 January 2021
Photo Source:

IPRI Conflict Weekly #52, 07 January 2021, Vol.2, No.01

The Gulf Reconciliation: Blockade against Qatar lifted but the GCC crisis far from over
In the news
On 5 January, the Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani headed to Al-Ula in Saudi Arabia, accepting an invitation from the Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz to attend the 41st Gulf Summit. On 4 January, the Abu Samra border between Qatar and Saudi Arabia was opened after more than three years of blockade. 

The summit witnessed the 'solidarity and stability' deal (also referred to as the Al-Ula statement) that calls for the end of the diplomatic blockade with Qatar and paves the way to wider negotiation space to extinguish the tensions with Doha. The deal was welcomed by several members of the Arab World as well as Iran. Egypt also signed a reconciliation agreement with Qatar during the summit. 

The Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, under whose oversee the blockade was put in place in 2017, stated that he hopes to see a unified effort towards confronting challenges in the region, most prominently, the threat posed by Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programme.   

Issues at large
First, the failure of the Qatar blockade. In 2017, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt imposed a diplomatic and trade blockade on Qatar. The quartet accused Doha of its alleged support for terrorist outfits, its close ties with Iran and Al Jazeera's role in exacerbating the Arab Spring crisis. However, Qatar denied the allegations. Since the blockade's imposition, none of the objectives for which it was imposed, could be achieved against Qatar.

Second, the emergence of a strong Qatar. With the assertive policies steered by Emir al-Thani, Qatar has emerged as a more resilient state since the blockade. It had gradually adapted to the regional conditions and has devised ways to sustain its economy despite the blockade. Qatar has been continuing to have a working relationship with Iran.

Third, a divided GCC. Diverging interests and geopolitical imperatives of the concerned parties had delayed an opportune moment for the dispute to be resolved. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) was rendered inefficient and weak as the members stood divided. Kuwait and the US have consistently used their diplomatic resources to bring the rift to an end.

Fourth, the US policies towards the Middle East. It has been consistent with bringing all its allies - including Israel, Saudi Arabia and Qatar on the same page. The lifting of blockade should be seen as a part of the American pressure.

In perspective 
Despite the signing of the reconciliation deal and the quartet's willingness to mend their relations with Qatar, much has to be dealt with to comprehensively cement the GCC's fissure. MBS has come to realize Iran a bigger threat that needs to be resisted, and Gulf Arab solidarity an instrumental for this purpose. The Middle East's recent geopolitics has been dynamic, with Arab states like the UAE and Bahrain normalizing relations with Israel. 

Tensions between the UAE and Qatar have been much deeper. In November 2020, the Foreign Minister of the UAE said that the Gulf reconciliation with Qatar was not even a priority. The two Gulf states were at loggerheads since 2018 over a racial discrimination case at the International Court of Justice. Moreover, Doha had suspected UAE's hands in using Israeli spyware to hack information about Al Jazeera journalists. 

Qatar stands firmly determined about the Palestinian cause by not agreeing to establish formal relations with Israel until a two-state solution is arrived at. While the reconciliation is set to improve the economic and diplomatic integration in the GCC, strong divergences of interest between Qatar and the other Persian Gulf Arab states over significant regional issues and concerns set the target point for complete reconciliation very high.


Iran: On the first anniversary of Soleimani's assassination, Tehran decides to enrich uranium 
In the news
On 1 January, Iran organized an event that kick-started ten days of commemoration to mark the first anniversary of the US drone strike in Baghdad that killed top Iranian general Qassem Soleimani and Iraqi militia leader and the deputy chief of the Iran-aligned Popular Mobilisation Forces, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis. At the event, Soleimani's successor vowed that the "path of resistance won't change". Senior officials from Iran-aligned organizations from Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, Yemen and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad also spoke at the event. 

Later, on 4 January, Tehran announced its decision to resume enriching its uranium stock to 20 per cent at the Fordo facility.

Meanwhile, Iraq marked the first anniversary of the US drone strike in Baghdad that killed Soleimani and Muhandis. Thousands of mourners marched in the mock funeral procession leading to the Baghdad airport where the strike had taken place. The head of Hashd al-Shaabi, Faleh al-Fayyad, vowed retaliation against the attackers and demanded that the US troops leave Iraq.

Issues at large
First, the rising US-Iran tensions. Ever since the attack that brought Tehran and Washington to the brink of war, bilateral tensions have been rising. In its letter to the United Nations Security Council on 31 December, Iran condemned the US "military adventurism" in the Sea of Oman and the Gulf, and Washington's dispensing of "fake information, baseless accusations and threatening rhetoric" against Tehran. While Khomeini renewed his revenge vow, the US flew two nuclear-capable B-52 bombers over the Gulf to send a deterrence message to Tehran.

Second, the attack ratcheted up regional tensions. Qassem Soleimani, the head of Iran's Revolutionary Guard's elite Quds Force, was responsible for Iran's foreign operations requiring him to shuttle between Lebanon, Iraq and Syria frequently. The killing of the two men undoubtedly worsened the Saudi-Iran schism in the Middle East.

Third, Iran's uranium enrichment is its most significant breach of 2015 deal to end nuclear sanctions. Enriched uranium is used for making reactor fuel and nuclear bombs. Although Tehran has previously insisted that its nuclear programme is peaceful, it has rolled back on various commitments as a retaliation to the crumbling US economic sanctions reinstated by President Donald Trump in 2018 following his exit from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

In perspective
Three issues need to be looked into - Iran's actions/strategies, regional developments either triggering or following the first, the US response under the new President. Joe Biden has said he would consider reviving the JCPOA provided Iran returns to complete compliance and adheres to further negotiations. Any extreme or erratic US move could significantly dent Middle Eastern politics. Meanwhile, domestic concerns regarding potential escalation or security deterioration are rife in Iran and Iraq.


Argentina: Senate passes bill legalizing abortion, a victory for women rights 
In the news
On 30 December 2020, as the year came to its end so did the battle for legalization of abortions in Argentina. Both houses of the Argentine Senate finally passed the bill, legalizing pregnancy termination up to the first fourteen weeks. The lower house had passed the bill earlier this month and finally got an approval from the upper house, thereby formalizing it into a law that could be implemented all over Argentina. 

President Alberto Fernandez, tweeted soon after the bill was passed that he was delighted that Argentina was now a country where women had access to safe and medical termination of pregnancies, and they no longer had to resort to clandestine, unsafe and potentially life-threatening abortion procedures.

Issues at large
First, historic win for the regime. The Fernandez regime had begun the political processes for legalization of abortions earlier in March 2020. Though this was one of the agendas that the Fernandez regime firmly supported, they faced immense opposition from pro-life social groups, the church, conservative sections of society, and the opposition parties of the country. It proved to be a long and arduous journey, but finally, Argentina became one of the only three Latin America countries to legalize abortions.

Second, a step ahead for gender equality. The demands by pro-choice groups and more so by women groups for legalizing abortions have been made for decades. In the past decade, these demands grew stronger, and with the advent of social media, their voice reached a larger audience. The high rates of crimes against women and the alarming rates of sexual crimes against women (minors included) are symptomatic of not just a society that does not consider women as equals but also a society that is resistant to change in the context of a growing demand for gender equality. The demand for legalization of abortions was made not only for the obvious reason of medical termination of pregnancies but also for acquiring greater agency over reproductive rights, thereby attaining more social capital in an inherently unequal and biased society towards men.

Third, a history of protests led by women and the passing of the bill. The war cries of #NiUnaMeno or 'Not one less' referring to the women who lose their lives to gender violence have been heard since 2015. The demands for stricter laws for sexual crimes against women and the legalization of abortions, have been made repeatedly and grew in momentum since 2018 when the Senate rejected this bill.

In perspective
The significance of repealing of the antiquated law should be understood in its entirety. The Latin American region is largely catholic, and Argentina is the home to the Pope, the leader of the Catholic world. It is a society that is deeply conservative regarding conventional social norms. While the discrimination and suppression of women in the society might not be superficial enough to be noticed with ease, it is abundantly clear with the barest of the scratching of the surface. While this might not begin a chain reaction that eventually leads to the domino effects in the context of patriarchy and conservatism, it is a definitive victory for women of the country and a beacon of hope to women fighting for the same cause everywhere else.


Mali: Tensions simmer as militants target French soldiers once again
In the news
On 4 January, a North Africa branch of Al Qaeda, known as the Group to Support Islam and Muslims (GSIM), claimed the IED attacks on an armoured vehicle in Mali's eastern region. In the attack, two French soldiers were killed, and one was injured. The two soldiers were on an intelligence operation when the attack occurred.

The attack comes barely a week after three French soldiers were hit in a similar IED blast on 29 December 2020. Like the latest incident, the three deceased soldiers were involved in an operation to curb the threat of armed rebels in western Africa.

In the latter half of 2020, several attacks were targeted at French military bases in the country. With the latest attack, the death toll of French soldiers deployed in Mali has gone up to 50 since France intervened to fight against armed rebels in 2013.

Issues at large
First, a brief background on the instability in Mali. Since June 2020, Mali has witnessed anti-government protests, a military coup, and a transitional government, largely led by former military officials. However, Mali has been mired in political instability since 2012. Simultaneously, the Islamic State started cementing itself in the West African region. At the same time, Mali has been the recent epicentre of Islamist extremism, Burkina Faso and Niger are also feeling its impact.

Second, the rising anti-French sentiment. In its latest statement, the GSIM listed reasons behind it attacks the French personnel: France's military presence in the region, recent publications of the Charlie Hebdo cartoon of Prophet Muhammad. The group also resented Macron's defence of the same under the banner of freedom of expression. This resentment has been resonated with by other Islamic countries across the world.

Third, the external presence in Mali. In 2013, France led its first intervention in Mali against Islamist insurgency and currently, there are more than 5000 French troops in the country. In December 2020, the UK announced its decision to deploy 300 British troops as a part of the UN peacekeeping force in Mali. According to the Council on Foreign Relations, Mali has nearly 14,000 foreign troops from 56 countries.

Fourth, the rivalry between Islamist groups in the region. While threats from one extremist group are imminent, the rivalry between different groups adds to the region's instability. For example, the GSIM and the Islamic State in Greater Sahara have had frequent violent clashes. The IS, critical of other terrorist organizations in the region, including GSIM, Boko Haram, said these groups are not deadly enough to destabilize the region. On the other hand, the GSIM criticizes the IS for targeting civilians and has equated the IS with "French occupiers and criminal militias."

In perspective
Despite the French presence in the region, militant attacks against civilians and security forces in the western Africa region have increased in recent times. Further, the IS made a gradual but strong emergence in the region while security operations weakened its presence in the Middle East, thereby signalling a shift in terrorist organizations' operational base.


Northeast India: NSCN(K) faction intends to join the Nagaland peace process, AFSPA remain extended 
In the news 
On 30 December 2020, the Ministry of Home Affairs extended the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act (AFSPA), 1958, in Nagaland thereby designating the state as a "disturbed area" for another six months. The extension is a routine affair as the state has been under AFSPA for almost six decades and the last such extension was on 30 June. The extension follows amid ongoing peace talks. 

On 23 December 2020, the Niki Sumi faction of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland-SS Khaplang (NSCN-K) or NSCN-GPRN announced their intent to join the peace talks and revive the ceasefire with the Government of India. The faction further added they expect the government to respond positively and honour their decision. 

Issues at large
First, second split in NSCN(K) and takeover by Yung Aung faction. Niki Sumi has been the most-wanted militant on the National Investigation Agency's list who controlled NSCN(K) 's extortion networks and jade mines in Myanmar. His intention for peace talks completes the division of NSCN (K) along national lines. Sumi's group emerged in July after differences with Yung Aung, the nephew of Khaplang and torchbearer of the Nagas in Myanmar. Since the death of Khaplang in 2017, NSCN(K) operating in Sagaing division of Myanmar, has split twice over the leadership tussle with Yung Aung. The first split in 2018 led Khango Konyak, a Mon from Nagaland, to join the NNPGs. The second split came in July 2020 when camps of Niki Sumi, Nyamlang Konyak Naga, Starson Lamkang Naga, all hailing from Nagaland, were attacked and subsequently purged out the NSCN(K) by Aung. 

Second, the impact on the Naga peace process. Niki Sumi has not yet declared his intention to join the NNPGs, unlike its predecessor Khango Konyak; nevertheless, its presence will make the talks inclusive. The Naga peace talks reached a stalemate when differences emerged between the NSCN(I-M) and interlocutor Governor Ravi on the ground of "shared sovereignty." On the other hand, NNPGs, a group of seven Naga insurgent groups, has continued with its dialogue since it signed the 'Deed of Commitment' in 2017. In 2015, when the government signed the framework agreement with NSCN(I-M), one of the criticisms to the process has been the absence of NSCN(K). With Konyok and Sumi, the factions from NSCN(K) representing the Indian Nagas will have a seat in the talks. 

Third, the State's response and extension of AFSPA. In October 2020, the coordinated counter-insurgency operations by Assam Rifles, Indian Army and Tatmadaw targeting the Niki Sumi group have also led Sumi, Starson, and 50 other cadres to surrender or come overground. The security agencies have worked on Sumi's return to India with an eye on concluding the Naga peace deal. The COVID-19 restrictions on cross border movement, operational challenges and infighting with Yung Aung have conclusively forced the leadership to rethink their future course. Simultaneously even though the peace talks and ceasefire continue, it has not translated into the revoking of the AFSPA. 

In perspective 
Nimmi Suki's intention to join would strengthen the ongoing peace process. It took more than three decades to come out of the woods to the table and yet the NSCN (K-Yung Aung) remains on the outside. In protracted conflicts, the surrender policy has been such that it permits insurgent groups to surrender but also opt to keep arms in reserve, thereby ensuring an option to return if favourable gains are not achieved in the peace process. It remains to be seen whether Sumi joins the NNPGs and it is likely to follow once he is assured of 'no arrest.' 


Also, from around the world...


Peace and Conflict from East and Southeast Asia
COVID-19: Japan, Thailand and China to impose new restrictions amid the new strain 
On 4 January, Thailand imposed new restriction as cases surged across the country. Prime Minister Prayuth Chanocha urged people to stay home. Similarly, in Japan, officials are considering a state of emergency for Tokyo, the first such declaration since April. Japan has already closed it borders to foreign travellers after a new COVID-19 variant, that emerged earlier in the UK, was discovered in the country. In China, "wartime mode" measures have been imposed in several regions in the north of the country. Mass tests are being conducted while villages that had confirmed infections are being sealed off.

Hong Kong: Over 50 democracy activists arrested under the National Security Law
On 6 January, over 50 pro-democratic activists in Hong Kong were arrested on suspicion of breaking the city's national security law, a local media reported, calling it the biggest crackdown yet against the democratic opposition under the new law. The arrests included well-known democratic figures and former lawmakers James To, Lam Cheuk-ting and Lester Shum, according to the Democratic Party's Facebook page and public broadcaster RTHK. The Democratic Party's Facebook page also said police arrested the activists for participating in an independently organized ballot conducted last year to elect democratic candidates for a legislature election, which the Hong Kong government and Beijing warned at the time may violate the new law.

China: Jack Ma suspected to be missing for two months 
Alibaba founder and Chinese billionaire Jack Ma has reportedly not made a public appearance in over two months. He is speculated to have gone missing after his controversial speech in October 2020. in which he criticized the regulation system of China and called the banks' pawnshops.' Further, his absence has come at a time when two of his companies, Alibaba and Ant have come under the scrutiny of China's market watchdog over an antitrust investigation, leading to a lot of speculation.

Singapore-Malaysia: High-speed rail project terminated 
On 1 January, Singapore and Malaysia announced the termination of a multi-billion-dollar high-speed rail link between the Singapore and Kuala Lumpur. The termination of the project came after the two sides were unable to reach an agreement on the project after Malaysia sought changes because of the pandemic's economic impact. Further, Malaysia will have to pay compensation to Singapore for costs already incurred. The announcement came just after the 31 December deadline for the second and final extension of the suspension of the project.

Peace and Conflict from South Asia
India: Farmers talks fail again as protests against farm laws return 
On 4 January, the seventh round of talks between the Centre and farm leaders demanding the removal of three contentious farm laws reached a deadlock after, three Union ministers' who were part of the negotiations said it was not possible to commit to a rollback of the legislation without wider consultations with higher authorities. The two sides have agreed to meet again on 8 January. Further, the farmers have threatened to hold a demonstration on 26 January if their demands are not met.

Nepal: Supreme Court begins hearing petitions against Oli's move to dissolve House 
On 6 January, the constitutional bench of the Supreme Court in Nepal resumed hearing on the 13 petitions against Prime Minister Oli's move to dissolve the House. In response to a show-cause notice issued by the court on 25 December, Oli on 3 January explained that the dissolution was a political move and does not warrant a judicial review. On 30 December, Oli said, "the possibility of the House reinstatement is not even one per cent." Oli, who has been reduced to a caretaker prime minister since he dissolved the House, will now have to face the judicial verdict on the constitutional validity of his actions that have costed a breaking of a majority-elected government.

Pakistan: 11 coal miners abducted and killed in Balochistan 
On 3 January, 11 coal miners, all belonging to the Shia Hazara community, were held at gunpoint and slaughtered by unidentified persons in the Mach coalfield in Bolan district. Initial investigation reported that the perpetrators identified the Hazaras, kidnapped them and left the others. Later, the Islamic State claimed responsibility for the attack. The incident sparked protest among the community as they refused the local administration to shift the bodies to Quetta and coal miners from the community blocked movement on the Quetta-Sukkur highway.

Afghanistan: Second round of talks set to resume in Doha 
On 5 January, the intra- Afghan talk are set to resume in Doha, Qatar after the first round concluded after three months with both sides agreeing on the procedural rules for the talks and share their demands. The negotiating team of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan said that their consultations on the agenda of the negotiations have ended and they are ready to enter the new phase of the process. Further, negotiators stated that this round of talks will mainly focus on ending the violence and the structure of a future government. The head of Afghanistan's High Council for National Reconciliation Abdullah Abdullah said, "We are committed to achieving lasting peace, and we ask the Taliban to do their part. We are looking for a successful second round."

Peace and Conflict from Central Asia, Middle East and Africa
Yemen: Airport reopens after deadly attacks rocked Aden
On 3 January, the Aden International Airport reopened, four days after missile attacks targeting the airport, suspected to be carried out by the Houthi rebels, left at least 26 dead and more than 100 injured. As the first commercial flight landed after the gruesome attacks, the Governor of Aden said the airport would remain a "symbol of peace." Previously, on 30 December 2020, three missiles were launched into the airport minutes after a flight with Yemen's cabinet members of Yemen arrived from Riyadh. Following this, another explosion occurred near the Presidential Palace where the cabinet members, including the Prime Minister, were taken to. However, no group claimed responsibility for the attack.

Israel: Rights group reveals atrocities committed by Israeli forces
On 4 January, an Israeli rights group, B'Tselem, said that Israeli security forces killed 27 Palestinians in 2020 in Israel, the Gaza Strip, West Bank and East Jerusalem. Of the 27, seven were minors. Further, B'Tselem said that in 11 of the 16 instances it investigated, the victim posed no threat. It also outlined that 729 Palestinian buildings, including residential ones, were destroyed by the forces in 2020. According to the group, 273 Palestinian homes were destroyed by Israeli forces, thereby rendering more than 1000 Palestinians, including 519 minors, homeless. 

Niger: 100 civilians killed in two separate but simultaneous attacks 
On 3 January, the Prime Minister of Niger said that 100 people were killed as suspected Islamist extremists simultaneously attacked two villages in Tillaberi region of western Niger the previous day. According to a local mayor, the attackers came on around 100 motorcycles and split up to attack the villages; the PM said the attacks were a retaliation to the killing of two rebel fighters by the villagers. However, travel by motorcycles had been banned to curb such attacks. Both the villages are close to Niger's border with Mali. The latest massacres came on the day Niger announced results of the first phase of presidential elections. 

Central African Republic: Touadera wins the second term
On 4 January, provisional results of presidential elections revealed that the incumbent, Faustin-Archange Touadera, had won a second term. However, elections were held amid violence which prevented nearly 14 per cent of the polling stations remained closed due to security threats. Prior to the announcement of the results, armed rebels attacked a town 70 kilometres from the capital city. So far, the rebel groups under a coalition led by former President, have been held off from the capital with the help of Russian and Rwandan forces. 

South Africa: Scientists worry current COVID-19 vaccine may be ineffective for South Africa variant
On 3 January, the British Health Secretary said that the variant of COVID-19 detected in South Africa was more dangerous than the variant found in the UK. The Secretary raised concerns that the current vaccinations may be ineffective on the South African variant. Simultaneously, scientists in South Africa echoed the concerns. However, one of the scientists who led the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine trials in South Africa said that it is unlikely that the South Africa variant would render the current vaccines useless. Yet, there are chances that the variant may weaken the impact of the vaccine. 

Peace and Conflict from Europe and the Americas 
The UK: Lockdown as new Covid-19 variant spreads fast 
On 4 January, Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced a nation-wide lockdown thereby restricting the British population in their homes until mid-February as infection rates rise from a new variant of the coronavirus. Schools and nonessential shops remain shut across England and people were told to only leave their homes if necessary. The imposition of a third national lockdown came after the government's chief medical officers warned that a more contagious strain has been spreading quickly across the country putting pressure on some hospitals.

The UK: WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange denied bail by London court
On 6 January, WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange was denied bail by a London court as the judge concluded there is a risk Assange may abscond while the US tries to secure his extradition from Britain. Earlier on 4 January, the court had blocked Assange's extradition to the US, where he is facing charges for publishing secret documents on the US airstrikes on civilians. The judges denied the extradition on the ground that Assange was at high suicide risk. The US Department of Justice called the extradition ruling "extremely disappointing." The US is likely to appeal in higher court till the Supreme court which would mean longer delays in the extradition attempt. 

The UK: Trucks cross into France from Britain as Brexit reality takes shape
On 1 January, as the UK left the EU, the first trucks carrying goods crossed the border under the new customs rule. The truck drivers presented their clearance documents to French agents before loading on to a train to pass through the Eurotunnel. With Britain finally exiting the EU single market and customs union, there were no early signs of feared chaos at the border on 1 January 2021. Prior to the Brexit, the scenes near the French border has been that of apprehension as many passengers decided to stay put to avoid being the first to test the new border controls. British and European businesses have been warned of red tape and disruption as new rules and paperwork sets in. 

The US: First African-American to win a Senate seat Georgia 
On 6 January, Raphael Warnock became the first African-American to win a US Senate seat in Georgia, as fellow Democratic contender Jon Ossoff clung to a narrow lead in a second contest that will decide which party controls the US Senate. Warnock was declared the winner by the Associated Press in the wee hours of the day and as counting continued, he had 50.6 per cent of the vote with a lead of roughly 53,000 over Republican incumbent. In the other Georgia Senate race, Ossoff led Republican incumbent David Perdue by nearly 16,000 votes. The two run-off elections are triggered after none of the candidates earned more than 50 per cent of the vote in the 3 November general election and comes amid Donald Trump's refusal to yield to Joe Biden. If Democrats win both contests, it would prove pivotal for Biden's presidency as the Democrats would control the Senate along with the House of Representatives. 

The US: Pro-Trump rightwing protestors storm the US Congress building
On 6 January, in a historic and an extremely worry development, pro-Trump protestors stormed the US Capitol Hill on the eve of US Congress ratifying the election results. Security officials had to evacuate the lawmakers for a while, though the Congress returned to resume the process. Mike Pence, the Vice President, while convening the progress, stated that violence never wins, only freedom does. Lawmakers across the political divide condemned the unprecedented violence that was witnessed on the day, that claimed the life of a woman. The day also witnessed the Republicans losing both the Senate seats in Georgia.

The US: Leader of far-right group Proud Boys released after arrest for burning the BLM flag
On 6 January, the leader of the far-right group, Proud Boys, has been released after he was arrested on suspicion of burning a Black Lives Matter flag in December. Enrique Tarrio faced charges for destruction of property charges. On 5 January, a judge ordered him to stay out of Washington. He has reportedly admitted for torching a banner taken from a black church during a rally in December in the city. The release comes amid President Donald Trump's urge to the supporters to gather in the capital this week for another demonstration. 


About the authors

Dr Aparaajita Pandey is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Public Policy, Amity University. Poornima Balasubramanian is a PhD scholar at the Department of Geopolitics and International Relations in MAHE. Lakshmi V Menon is an independent scholar based in Doha. Sourina Bej, Apoorva Sudhakar and Abigail Miriam Fernandez are Project Associate and Project Assistants at the School of Conflict and Security Studies, NIAS.


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Nithin V

Pakistan and Press Freedom:
Four takeaways Military influence, cyber laws, political instability, and youth-driven digital journalism
June 2026 | CWA # 2139

Siddhi Halyur

Afghanistan and Press Freedom:
Four takeaways on political control, religious restrictions and economic vulnerabilities 
June 2026 | CWA # 2138

Siddhi Halyur

Nepal and Press Freedom:
Three takeaways on Political constraints, Missing legal protection and Funding issues
June 2026 | CWA # 2136

Acsah H

The Blue Origin Rocket Explosion:
Does this leave Jeff Bezos grounded, Elon Musk unchallenged, and NASA’s lunar timeline in jeopardy?
June 2026 | CWA # 2131

Rohini Reenum

Israel-Lebanon Tensions:
New Deal amidst Israeli incursion and Hezbollah’s retaliation
June 2026 | CWA # 2130

Akshath Kaimal

The UK-Rwanda Asylum Deal: 
Why did the Permanent Court of Arbitration reject Rwanda’s claims? What was Rwanda’s complaint? Why did the UK cancel the deal?
June 2026 | CWA # 2129

Anu Maria Joseph

Conflicts in Africa This Week:
The Ebola fear in DR Congo and the Elections in Ethiopia amidst conflicts
May 2026 | CWA # 2126

Aparna A Nair

The Shenzhou-23 Mission:
China’s Space Missions, Technology, and Infrastructure
May 2026 | CWA # 2124

Glynnis Winona B

The Crisis in Cuba:
The US Sanctions, Energy Crisis, and Economic Instability
May 2026 | CWA # 2123

Akshath Kaimal

The Ebola and the DR Congo:
Multiple Outbreaks, Fragile Healthcare System, and Ineffective Global Responses
May 2026 | CWA # 2122

Radhika M Agarwal

The War in Ukraine:
Ballistic missiles, Nuclear drills with Belarus, and the Czech ammunition initiative
May 2026 | CWA # 2120

Brighty Ann Sarah

Conflicts in the Middle East
The US-Iran War Week Thirteen: Escalating Hostilities, Tenuous Ceasefire and Tense Negotiations
May 2026 | CWA # 2119

Anu Maria Joseph

Conflicts in Africa
The Ebola spread in DR Congo, The Faye-Sonko split in Senegal, and the Deepening US military involvement in Nigeria
May 2026 | CWA # 2115

Aparna A Nair

The Putin-Xi Summit
Trade, Technology, Security, and Pipeline
May 2026 | CWA # 2114

Glynnis Winona B

What makes the UAE a global player?
Explaining the Governance, Economy, People, and Strategic Influence of a Small Middle Eastern State
May 2026 | CWA # 2113

Aishal Hab Yousuf

Sri Lanka and the US-Iran War 
Rising oil imports, Austerity measures and State capacity
May 2026 | CWA # 2111

NIAS Global Politics Team

The Trump-Xi Summit
The Africa Forward Summit 2026 I North Korea's Constitutional Amendment 2026
May 2026 | CWA # 2110

Aishal Hab Yousuf

The Trump-Xi Summit:
Managing Strategic Competition through Trade, Technology, and Diplomacy
May 2026 | CWA # 2092

NIAS Global Politics Team

The US-Iran War, Week Ten
CW Column on Middle East: Escalating Israeli Aggression in Lebanon I UAE's Covert Manoeuvres
May 2026 | CWA # 2090

Brighty Ann Sarah

The US-Iran War, Week Ten:
Fraying Ceasefire, Renewed Negotiations and the Risk of a Stalemate
May 2026 | CWA # 2089

Global Politics Team

King Charles's US Visit
May 2026 | CWA # 2088

Nithin V

Emphasis on strong bilateral relations, democratic values and security cooperation
May 2026 | CWA # 2087

Siddhi Halyur

Exploring Strategic Sectors of Cooperation
May 2026 | CWA # 2086

Aishal Hab Yousuf

Implications for the Middle East and the Energy Market
May 2026 | CWA # 2085

Glynnis Winona B

Growing US-Europe differences and Challenges for Berlin
May 2026 | CWA # 2083

Brighty Ann Sarah

The US-Iran War, Week Nine:
Deadlocked Negotiations, Competing Agendas and Domestic Pressure
May 2026 | CWA # 2082

Akshath Kaimal

Escalating Violence in Mali:
Between Ethnic Insurgencies, Jihadist Attacks, and Military Coups
April 2026 | CWA # 2080

Global Politics Team

Four Takeaways of the WFP's report on the fallouts of the Middle East crisis
April 2026 | CWA # 2079

Aishal Hab Yousuf

From Post-War Pacifism to Strategic Recalibration and Autonomy
April 2026 | CWA # 2074

Brighty Ann Sarah

Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire:
Asymmetric Terms, Fragile Truce and Israeli Occupation
April 2026 | CWA # 2073

Akshath Kaimal

The US-Iran War, Week Eight:
A Fragile Ceasefire, Attempts to Control Hormuz and the Stalled Talks in Islamabad
April 2026 | CWA # 2072

Anu Maria Joseph

Three Years of War in Sudan
Prolonged Stalemate, Humanitarian Cost, External Interventions and Regional Fallouts
April 2026 | CWA # 2070

NIAS Global Politics Team

The US-Iran War I Conflicts in Africa I The War in Ukraine I China-Japan Tensions I Pakistan-Afghanistan Clashes
April 2026 | CWA # 2069

Padmashree Anandhan

The War in Ukraine
Expanding Drone Warfare, Russia's Strategic Patience and Ukraine's Diplomatic Outreach
April 2026 | CWA # 2068

Femy Francis 

China-Japan Tensions
Escalating Defence Posturing and Economic Decoupling
April 2026 | CWA # 2067

Anu Maria Joseph

Conflicts in Africa
Continuing Conflicts in Sudan, South Sudan and DR Congo, Security issues in Nigeria, and Political Instability in Madagascar
April 2026 | CWA # 2065

Lakshmi Venugopal Menon

The US-Iran War, Israel-Hamas Conflict and their interconnected fallouts
April 2026 | CWA # 2064

Anwesha Ghosh

Gender Repression, Leadership Rifts, Regional Realignments and Clashes with Pakistan
April 2026 | CWA # 2063

Ramya B

Russia (Jan-Mar 2026)
Assertive Military Posture, Attempts for an Economic Turnaround and Search for Partners
April 2026 | CWA # 2062

Himani Pant

Europe (Jan-Mar 2026)
Trade diversification & FTAs, Increased defence spending, Tightening irregular migration and Economic slowdown
April 2026 | CWA # 2061

S Shaji

Africa (Jan-Mar 2026)
Elections, Civil Wars, Militancy and Peace Initiatives
April 2026 | CWA # 2059

Adarsh Vijay

April 2026 | CWA # 2058

Nishchal N Pandey  & Mahesh Raj Bhatta

Nepal (Jan-Mar 2026)
Political Upheaval, Generational Change and Economic Uncertainty
April 2026 | CWA # 2057

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar (Jan-Mar 2026)
An Illegitimate Regime's Consolidation Game
April 2026 | CWA # 2056

Ashik J Bonofer

Southeast Asia (Jan-Mar 2026)
Deteriorating situation in Myanmar, Philippines as the ASEAN Chair, New government in Thailand, and Economic & Environmental challenges
April 2026 | CWA # 2054

Amrita Jash

Regional assertion, Pragmatic recalibration with the West and Avoiding military entanglement in the Middle East
April 2026 | CWA # 2053

Anand V

The "Two Sessions," Recalibrated growth targets, Technology prioritization, and Military purges
April 2026 | CWA # 2052

Shreya Upadhyay

April 2026 | CWA # 2050

IPRI Team

March 2026 | CWA # 2042

Preetha Renganarayanan

Five Takeaways of the US Annual Threat Assessment (ATA) Report for 2026
March 2026 | CWA # 2039

Femy Francis

Trump-Xi Meeting
Why did Trump reschedule it? What does that mean?
March 2026 | CWA # 2035

Akshath Kaimal

Pakistan-Afghanistan Conflict
Broken ceasefire, Expanding military strikes and Worsening humanitarian situation
March 2026 | CWA # 2033

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal after elections:
Five major challenges for the new government
March 2026 | CWA # 2023

Femy Francis

New Five-Year Plan, Ethnic Unity Law, and an Enhanced Defence Budget
March 2026 | CWA # 2019

Akshath Kaimal

Rising Violence in Nigeria
Limited State Capacity, Multiple Actors, and a Complex Security Environment
March 2026 | CWA # 2017

Global Politics Team

March 2026 | CWA # 2011

Tanvi Thara Harendra Jha

Resetting Economic, Strategic and Cultural Ties
March 2026 | CWA # 2009

Sreemaya Nair

Nepal Elections 2026
Rise of a new leadership and Reset in political landscape
March 2026 | CWA # 2004

Akshath Kaimal

Instability returns, with a fragile peace agreement, uptick in violence and limited international engagement
March 2026 | CWA # 2003

Yesasvi Koganti

From bilateral ties to a special strategic partnership
March 2026 | CWA # 2002

Femy Francis

Reducing trade deficit and recalibrating economic cooperation with Beijing
March 2026 | CWA # 2001

Preetha Renganarayanan

Six major takeaways on the economy, border and internal security and Iran
February 2026 | CWA # 1998

Anu Maria Joseph

Instability in Sudan
Response to the genocide call and the threats of a regional spillover
March 2026 | CWA # 1991

Global Politics Team

February 2026 | CWA # 1986

Preetha Renganarayanan

Focus on Trade, Defense, Energy and Regional Connectivity
February 2026 | CWA # 1985

Abhimanyu Solanki

Basant in Pakistan
The return of Basant, and what it signifies
February 2026 | CWA # 1977

Anu Maria Joseph

Violence in Nigeria
US military deployment amidst worsening insurgency
February 2026 | CWA # 1976

Lekshmi MK

The War in Ukraine
The Geneva Talks and Growing Negotiation Asymmetry
December 2025 | CWA # 1971

Vani Vyshnavi Jupudi

Pakistan Budget 2025-26
Legislating stabilisation under IMF discipline and coalition constraints
December 2025 | CWA # 1970

Aparna A Nair

Pakistan & China
Ten Years of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)
November 2025 | CWA # 1968

Vani Vyshnavi Jupudi

Pakistan and the US
A New opening, or another cycle?
November 2025 | CWA # 1967

R Preetha

Risks, Reforms and Trajectories
November 2025 | CWA # 1966

Lekshmi MK

Five Questions on Challenges, Capacity and Policies
February 2026 | CWA # 1962

Global Politics Team

Regional Roundups: From East Asia to the Americas
February 2026 | CWA # 1961

Lekshmi MK

What does it mean for domestic politics and regional stability?
February 2026 | CWA # 1955

Global Politics Team

Regional Roundups: From East Asia to the Americas
January 2026 | CWA # 1947

Brighty Ann Sarah

January 2026 | CWA # 1946

Preetha Renganarayanan

The Davos Summit 2026
Five Major Takeaways from The World Economic Forum
January 2026 | CWA # 1945

Global Politics Team

January 2026 | CWA # 1943

Anu Maria Joseph

January 2026 | CWA # 1942

Lekshmi MK

January 2026 | CWA # 1941

Brighty Ann Sarah

January 2026 | CWA # 1940

IPRI Team

January 2026 | CWA # 1939

Lekshmi MK

January 2026 | CWA # 1937

Anu Maria Joseph

December 2025 | CWA # 1931

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1930

Aparna A Nair

December 2025 | CWA # 1924

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1914

Preetha Renganarayanan

December 2025 | CWA # 1913

Rohini Reenum

December 2025 | CWA # 1912

Lekshmi MK

December 2025 | CWA # 1911

Swati Sood

December 2025 | CWA # 1905

Femy Francis

December 2025 | CWA # 1902

Brighty Ann Sarah

December 2025 | CWA # 1893

Lekshmi MK

December 2025 | CWA # 1889

Femy Francis

December 2025 | CWA # 1881

Sunidhi Sampige

December 2025 | CWA # 1864

Femy Francis

Ten Takeaways of a SCMP Interview with a former PLA Colonel
December 2025 | CWA # 1861

Femy Francis

China Reader
November 2025 | CWA # 1859

Brighty Ann Sarah

November 2025 | CWA # 1858

Padmashree Anandhan

August 2025 | CWA # 1801

R Preetha

28 August 1963
Martin Luther King's "I Have a Dream" speech and the Civil Rights Movement in the US
August 2025 | CWA # 1790

GP Team

The World This Week#323-324
The Trump-Putin meeting & the US-China tariff extension
August 2025 | CWA # 1780

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

Trump tariffs:
Weaponization of access to the US economy
August 2025 | CWA # 1779

GP Team

The World This Week#322
US tariffs on India, Brazil and Canada & the EU-US trade deal
August 2025 | CWA # 1778

Lekshmi MK

28 July 1914
Austria-Hungary declares war on Serbia, starting the First World War
July 2025 | CWA # 1770

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

Pakistan-Afghanistan relations:
Why the focus on terrorism, refugees, and Uzbekistan as the third partner?
July 2025 | CWA # 1769

GP Team

The World This Week#321
Indian PM Modi's visit to the Maldives I Elections to the Upper House in Japan
July 2025 | CWA # 1762

Lekshmi MK

Ocean Darkening: 
What is the phenomenon? What are its effects? And who are more vulnerable?
July 2025 | CWA # 1749

R Preetha

Africa as the Hunger Epicenter
Of the 13 Global Hunger Hotspots, 8 are in Africa: Five reasons why
July 2025 | CWA # 1748

GP Team

The World This Week #318
PM Modi’s Visit to Trinidad and Tobago & Ghana, One big beautiful bill, and Quad Foreign Ministers Meeting
July 2025 | CWA # 1744

Chittrothu Vaihali

EU-Canada Summit 2025
What is security and defence partnership all about?
July 2025 | CWA # 1742

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly # 287-88
The 12 Day War and the Congo-Rwanda Peace Deal
July 2025 | CWA # 1738

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Thailand and Cambodia
What was the phone call between PM Shinawatra and President of Senate Hun Sen? What is the border dispute between the two? Why has this become an issue?
June 2025 | CWA # 1735

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025:
Trump making Europe great again
June 2025 | CWA # 1734

GP Team

The World This Week #317
NATO Summit 2025 and Russia-Mali bilateral agreements
June 2025 | CWA # 1733

Ananya Dinesh

China and the Pacific Islands 
What was the recent China-PIC joint statement about? What it says, and what it means?
June 2025 | CWA # 1728

M Kejia

G7 Summit 2025:
The Focus on the Middle East and Trade negotiations
June 2025 | CWA # 1726

GP Team

The World This Week #316
China-Central Asia Summit in Kazakhstan, and the G7 Summit in Canada
June 2025 | CWA # 1725

Brighty Ann Sarah, R Preetha, Santhiya M, Aparna A Nair & M Kejia

Operation Midnight Hammer: US bombs three nuclear sites in Iran
What were the three Iranian nuclear sites that were targeted? What are the B2 Bombers and Bunker Buster Bombs? What do these attacks mean? What Next?
June 2025 | CWA # 1724

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #286
The Spiralling Israel-Iran Crisis, and the Dangerous Hunger Hotspots
June 2025 | CWA # 1721

Rizwana Banu S and Santhiya M

Who are the Afrikaners?
Why is Trump interested in the Afrikaner question in South Africa?
June 2025 | CWA # 1720

Lekshmi MK

New WMO Report on Arctic Warming
What are the social, economic and environmental implications of Arctic warming
June 2025 | CWA # 1719

J Yamini  

China’s EV Surge
What contributes to the rise of BYD
June 2025 | CWA # 1717

J Yamini

Gender Violence in Pakistan:
What are the larger issues in the Noor Mukadam case?
June 2025 | CWA # 1715

Femy Francis

The US-China:
On Tariffs, Rare Earths and Visas
June 2025 | CWA # 1713

GP Team

The World This Week #315
The UN Ocean Conference in France and the US-China Meeting in London
June 2025 | CWA # 1712

R Preetha

June 2025 | CWA # 1705

GP Team

The World This Week #314
Elections in South Korea and Poland I China and the Pacific Island Countries I Bangladesh Election Announcement 2026
June 2025 | CWA # 1703

M Kejia 

Sagarmatha Sambaad in Nepal
Kathmandu’s Global Agenda for the Himalayas
June 2025 | CWA # 1700

R Preetha

Ethiopia bans the TPLF
What does the TPLF ban mean for the Pretoria agreement? What next for Ethiopia?
June 2025 | CWA # 1694

Aashish Ganeshan

The US:
Harvard vs Trump Administration
June 2025 | CWA # 1691

GP Team

The World This Week #313
China-ASEAN-GCC Summit I President Macron's visit to South East Asia I Trump Vs Harvard
May 2025 | CWA # 1690

GP Team

The World This Week #312
Elections in Romania, Portugal & Poland I UK-EU Summit
May 2025 | CWA # 1689

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine
Continuing Russia’s Aerial Attacks, despite exchange of prisoners
May 2025 | CWA # 1688

Ayan Datta

Gaza
The Humanitarian Crisis and Israel’s Renewed Offensive
May 2025 | CWA # 1685

Aparna A Nair

UK-EU Summit:
First step towards a reset
May 2025 | CWA # 1683

Aashish Ganeshan

Elections in Portugal:
The Rise of Chega Party and the Search for Political Stability
May 2025 | CWA # 1679

Aashish Ganeshan

US in the Middle Easr
Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE
May 2025 | CWA # 1678

Gauri Gupta

China in Latin America
China-CELAC forum: Strengthening ties with Latin America and Caribbean
May 2025 | CWA # 1677

GP Team

The World This Week #310-311
China in Latin America and the Carribbean I Trump's Middle East Visit I Denmark as the new Arctic Chair
May 2025 | CWA # 1675

Lekshmi MK

Turkey:
PKK disbands after 40 years of armed insurgency
May 2025 | CWA # 1673

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine:
The Discussion in Turkiye and the Elusive Ceasefire
May 2025 | CWA # 1671

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

US, Ukraine and Russia:
Air attacks amidst a Minerals deal and Ceasefire Proposals
May 2025 | CWA # 1670

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Singapore Elections in 2025:
People’s Action Party (PAP) Wins, Again
May 2025 | CWA # 1667

R Preetha and Brighty Ann Sarah

East Asia:
Tough Tariff Negotiations with the US
May 2025 | CWA # 1666

Padmashree Anandhan

The US-Ukraine
The mineral deal with the US
May 2025 | CWA # 1665
Conflict Weekly # 280-81
India-Pakistan De-escalation I Ukraine Discussion in Istanbul I The Battle over Port Sudan I Disbanding of PKK in Turkiye I France-Algeria Diplomatic Tensions
May 2025 | CWA # 1663

R Preetha

Canada Elections 2025:
What do the results convey? What next for Mark Carney?
October 2024 | CWA # 1480

IPRI Team

July 2024 | CWA # 1413

Ramya B

May 2024 | CWA # 1336

Femy Francis

April 2024 | CWA # 1275

Ramya B

March 2024 | CWA # 1251

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
March 2024 | CWA # 1246

Sivasubramanian K

February 2024 | CWA # 1226

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
November 2023 | CWA # 1148

GP Team

October 2023 | CWA # 1091

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri

Issues for Europe
October 2023 | CWA # 1087

PR Team

October 2023 | CWA # 1083

GP Team

August 2023 | CWA # 1049

IPRI Team

July 2023 | CWA # 1012

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar continues to burn
July 2023 | CWA # 1009

GP Team

December 2022 | CWA # 879

Padmashree Anandhan

The Ukraine War
December 2022 | CWA # 872

Sapna Elsa Abraham

November 2022 | CWA # 838

Rishma Banerjee

Tracing Europe's droughts
March 2022 | CWA # 705

NIAS Africa Team

In Focus: Libya
December 2021 | CWA # 630

GP Team

Europe in 2021
October 2021 | CWA # 588

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

TLP is back again
August 2021 | CWA # 528

STIR Team

Space Tourism
September 2020 | CWA # 337

Anju Annie Mammen

February 2020 | CWA # 235

Lakshmi V Menon

September 2019 | CWA # 162

Lakshman Chakravarthy N

5G: A Primer
December 2018 | CWA # 71

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal
December 2018 | CWA # 70

Nasima Khatoon

The Maldives
December 2018 | CWA # 69

Harini Madhusudan

India
December 2018 | CWA # 68

Sourina Bej

Bangladesh
December 2018 | CWA # 67

Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer

Afghanistan
July 2018 | CWA # 47

Rahul Arockiaraj

June 2018 | CWA # 26

Siddhatti Mehta