Conflict Weekly

Conflict Weekly
The migrant threat to Europe from Belarus and Ceasefire with the TTP in Pakistan

IPRI Team
11 November 2021
Photo Source: Poland government handout/Reuters

Conflict Weekly #96, 11 November 2021, Vol.2, No.32 
An initiative by NIAS-IPRI & KAS-India Office

Harini Madhusudan, and Abigail Miriam Fernandez



Poland: The Belarus threat of pushing migrants into Europe
In the news 
On 8 November, a strong international condemnation was directed towards Belarus when the European Union, the United States, and NATO blamed the Lukashenko government after thousands of migrants began to cross into Poland on the same day. They stated that the sudden surge in the number of migrants massing the Polish border is due to a coordinated attempt by the Belarusian authorities. During an emergency debate at the Polish Parliament, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki accused Vladimir Putin of being behind the migrant crisis at the borders and described the situation as an attempt by Russia to disrupt the region that it had control over during the Soviet era. "The security of our eastern border is being brutally violated. This is the first such situation in 30 years when we can say that the integrity of our borders is being tested," he said. The Belarusian Red Cross, on their Telegram Channel, stated that they were ready to provide assistance, in the form of food, hygiene kits, and other essentials, to the migrants at the Belarusian-Polish Border.
 
Issues at large 
First, the ground situation across the Belarus border, and the threat for Poland. Since May 2021, Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia have complained of a sharp rise in the number of migrants crossing into their borders. Over 30,000 people have tried to cross the Polish- Belarusian border, which led Warsaw to declare a state of emergency and take up the measure to build a strong barbed-wire-fence at the border. Both Belarus and Poland have steadily increased the presence of their troops at the borders; with Belarus having an estimated 10,000 servicemen and Poland, up to 12,000 of their forces. Poland later plans to build a fortified border, equipped with sensors, measuring five meters in height. Poland has consistently stopped the migrants from moving across the borders and has maintained a strong response against the actions of the Belarusian government.
 
Second, the Belarusian strategy and the end-game. The Belarusian government understands the vulnerability of the situation of migration in the European Union strategy. Belarus has been known to be encouraging migrants and refugees from Africa and the Middle East to cross into Central Europe, and the wider European Union, which has begun to cause a major confrontation in the region. The Belarusian government has put the lives and health of the migrants at risk to provoke Poland and the EU. This is because Lukashenko expects the EU to remove the sanctions placed on his regime since the disputed elections in Belarus. Poland is the region that hosts the largest number of opposition leaders of the Lukashenko regime, which is likely the reason for the influx of people in large numbers to Poland. The border committee of Belarus insist that the people were arriving legally and countered the 'weaponization of migrants' argument saying, "the migrants were only exercising their right to apply for refuge in the EU." Lukashenko during this week stated that he wanted to avoid any military escalation on the border and said, he was not a 'madman' and knew what was at stake.
 
Third, regional and international responses. After a video was posted by the Polish defense ministry, Ursula Von der Leyen, announced that two top EU officials would travel to the main countries of origin of the migrants to prevent the nationals from joining the Belarusian trap. The US State Department called on Belarus to stop the manipulation of the situation, and NATO accused Lukashenko of using migrants as a "hybrid tactic." The human rights groups have criticized the EU governments for pushbacks of migrants on the border with Belarus, calling out the weaponization of the situation where the migrants are stranded in terrible conditions. In the region, both Latvia and Lithuania have faced a sense of emergency with the rising number of people at their borders. Like Poland, Lithuania has also moved its troops to prepare for the influx of migrants. One statement called the latest influx a "form of revenge" by Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko against Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia, to destabilize the region.
 
Fourth, the ground-zero and the humanitarian responses: The migrants who were promised passage into the region are seen stranded at the borderlands under terrible physical and weather conditions. During the week, Poland had summoned Belarus' chargé d'affaires over "unidentified uninformed individuals armed with long guns," on Polish territory. They state that Belarus has escalated the situation. In their official statement, the UNHCR called the images from the Belarus-Poland border, deeply concerning and called the using refugees and migrants to achieve political ends, unacceptable. "It's time to act now, we call on Belarus to avoid putting lives at risk," they said. The humanitarian groups have called on both Belarus and Poland to respect the dignity of the migrants and implored them to abide by their legal obligations to provide asylum. Red Cross and other organizations have taken up the charge to provide immediate food and health assistance to the thousands of people stranded at the borders.
 
In perspective
The migrant situation at the Polish and Belarusian border brings to the fore deeper concerns in the region. The Lukashenko regime's approach in getting the EU to waive the sanctions placed on their regime may never work in their favor. At the same time, the principles that the EU is built on, cannot have this situation challenge its foundations, it also cannot let the migration situation encourage these countries to take stricter border controls. This would go against the idea of the European Union as a region for free movement. Both sides seem to understand this conflicting situation.
 
It is extremely deplorable to leave the migrants stranded at sub-zero temperatures without food and adequate shelter, they have been made a pawn in the game between Belarus, its neighbours, Russia, and the EU.
 
Moscow has largely kept itself away from the EU response to the elections in Belarus and the crackdown that followed, but it has offered the EU the option of following the methods from the EU-Turkey deal of 2016. It is important that the Russian side take a step forward and take a stronger stance in the Poland-Belarus border conflict.



Pakistan: A month-long ceasefire with the TTP
In the news
On 8 November, Information Minister Fawad Chaudhry announced that a "complete ceasefire" had been reached between the government and the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). The minister stated that talks between the government and the TTP were underway, stating: "the state's sovereignty, national security, peace in relevant areas and social and economic stability will be considered during the talks." Additionally, he added that the interim Afghan government had facilitated the negotiations.
 
Later, on 9 November, he reiterated: "There are various groups within TTP; there are [some] ideologues, while there are others who joined the organisation under compulsion. The state of Pakistan wants to give its citizens a chance if all of them, some of them or a fraction of them want to come back and show their allegiance to the Constitution of Pakistan." Meanwhile, TTP spokesperson Mohammad Khurasani confirmed that the ceasefire which will begin on 9 November would remain in place until 9 December, during which both sides will form a committee to continue talks.
 
Issues at large
First, Imran Khan's efforts to reach out to proscribed groups. Prime Minister Imran Khan in an interview with TRT World stated: "There are different groups which form the TTP and some of them want to talk to our government for peace. So, we are in talks with them. It's a reconciliation process," arguing that dialogue was the only solution and is willing to "forgive" the TTP if an agreement is reached. PM Khan has always maintained that he favours negotiations over military action because of which he has been criticised for being a sympathizer of the militants.
 
Second, challenges in addressing the TTP issue. Dealing with the TTP comes with several challenges. The lack of national consensus because of the government's unilateral approach along with the divide over how the negotiations should take place are the main challenges currently. This in turn has caused an intense backlash from the opposition parties, civil society and media who believe that the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) is going soft of the TTP.
 
Third, TTP's track record. The group's network was initially dismantled to a large extent after military operations that were carried out in the country in recent years. However, isolated attacks claimed by the TTP in parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan the targeting of a high-security location has raised concerns of the TTP's resurgence. Additionally, the regroup within the group has also been concerning as the United Nations in a report addressed the activities of the TTP and noted the "reunification of splinter groups [of TTP]." Meanwhile, this is not the first time that the Pakistan government and the TTP have agreed to a ceasefire. Previously, in March 2014, a similar agreement was reached but it was short-lived as the Pakistan army launched a counterterrorist operation driving the group out.
 
In perspective
First, PM Khan's alternative strategy. PM Khan seems to believe in a softer approach while dealing in proscribed groups such as the TTP. Although this may not be the ideal approach to many, he may be trying to use an alternative approach to address the issue given that the multiple strategies of the past have mostly failed. Additionally, with the Afghan Taliban on board with the negotiation, there is probably a more viable for talks.
 
Second, the ambiguity around the terms of negotiations has made the talks extremely controversial. Although this is not the first time Pakistan is trying to reach an agreement with the TTP, the group has once again only agreed to a short-term ceasefire, showing no indication that they are willing to lay down its arms and accept the Constitution. Besides this, TTP considers its beliefs and actions as the absolute truth and being righteous thus reaching common ground with groups will be extremely difficult. Additionally, given that the TTP has the blood of thousands of innocent Pakistanis on its hands, it will not be an easy task to gather public support for peace talks.



Also from around the World
By Apoorva Sudhakar and Abigail Miriam Fernandez
 
Peace and Conflict from East and Southeast Asia
China: Global Times report accuses India of cyberattacks against neighbours 
On 5 November, Global Times published its investigative report laying allegations that through cyberattacks, India has frequently targeted defense, military, and state-owned units of its neighbours, being China, Pakistan and Nepal. The news report maintains that such attacks are carried out by "Advanced Persistent Threat (APT)" organisations which operate with government support. The report quotes a cybersecurity company, Antiy Labs, which alleges that such threats from India date back to as early as 2019 and that more than 100 phishing fake websites have been detected by the company.

Taiwan: China to punish diehard secessionists 
On 5 November, Chinese mainland announced that it would take steps to punish hardcore secessionists from Taiwan. These measures would include a ban on secessionists and their families from entering the mainland, Hong Kong and Macao, restrictions on their respective organisations in collaborating with those in the mainland and persecution for criminal liability. Global Times reported that experts believe these measures will ensure accountability from secessionists and reiterates that reunification is inevitable.

North Korea: Artillery fire competition held; US reiterates commitment to sanctions 
On 7 November, state media KCNA reported that North Korea's mechanised troops had conducted an artillery fire competition on 6 November with an aim to boost defence capabilities. The Strait Times quoted the KCNA which said that the drill was conducted "at a time when the enthusiasm to undergo intensive training prevails throughout the Korean People's Army (KPA) for ushering in a new heyday in strengthening the state defence capabilities under the banner of self-defence." On the same day, the spokesperson for the US State Department said that they are committed to the imposition of UNSC resolutions on North Korea for limiting the latter's nuclear and ballistic missile program. The development came after China and Russia, "with the intent of enhancing the livelihood of the civilian population" in North Korea, circulated a draft resolution calling for lifting some sanctions on the country.

Japan: Tokyo decides to skip agreement to phase out coal power
On 9 November, Reuters reported that Japan had taken a "leap backwards" after the country refused to sign an agreement to phase out coal power at the COP26 summit in Glasgow. Instead, the Japanese PRime Minister pledged to implement other measures. The decision to restrain itself from this commitment indicated that Japan, which once led initiatives like the Kyoto Protocol, had shifted its stance. However, a deputy director from the industry ministry said: "In Japan, where resources are scarce and the country is surrounded by the sea, there is no single perfect energy source...For this reason, Japan does not support the statement."

Australia: People demand more from climate policies 
On 6 November, thousands gathered in Sydney and Melbourne in protest to the climate policies that the Australian government presented at the COP26 summit in Glasgow. The development comes as Australia refrained from committing to the global methane pledge. The Strait Times quoted protesters who said: "We're all out here to show that we want more from our government" and carried signs that read: "We need human change, not climate change."

Indonesia: Several dead as floods hit East Java and West Kalimantan
On 8 November, The Jakarta Post reported that at least seven people had died in East Java and two casualties were recorded in West Kalimantan, after floods resulting from the La Nina phenomenon hit these regions. The Batu Disaster Mitigation Agency (BPBD) said that as of 6 November, the floods in East Java had displaced at least 89 families, destroyed 35 houses and submerged 33 houses

Myanmar: Rights organisations call for immediate action in Chin State; bomb explodes in Naypyitaw
On 4 November, Human Rights Watch published a letter it wrote, along with 520 other organisations, to the UNSC calling for immediate attention to increasing attacks in Chin State. The letter called on the UNSC to adopt a resolution to bring an end to the "military's assault" against the Myanmarese. It also outlined the atrocities in Karen, Shan, and Karenni States. In another development, On 6 November, a bomb was targeted at an electricity office in the capital, Naypyitaw. The bomb is believed to have been used by civilian resistance fighters against the collection of electricity bill payments, while the people are refusing to pay the bill to be a part of the Civil Disobedience Movement.
 
Peace and Conflict from South Asia
India: Terrorists kill two people in targeted attacks
On 8 November, a salesman who worked in a shop owned by a Kashmiri Pandit was killed by suspected militants in Bohri Kadal, Srinagar. On 7 November, a policeman was shot dead in the Batamaloo neighbourhood of Srinagar by suspected militants. The two killings took place within 24 hours despite heightened security across Srinagar bring the total number of civilians to be killed to 17 since 2 October.  
 
India: New Delhi hosts first Afghanistan conference since Taliban takeover
On 10 November, India hosted a regional summit to discuss the ongoing situation Afghanistan, the first meeting since the Taliban takeover earlier in August 2021. The Delhi Regional Security Dialogue for Afghanistan was attended by representatives from India, Iran, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan and was chaired by India's National Security Advisor (NSA) Ajit Doval. Pakistan and China did not attend the conference. The 'Delhi Declaration' announced by the Ministry of External Affairs stated: "The sides paid special attention to the current political situation in Afghanistan and threats arising from terrorism, radicalization and drug trafficking as well as the need for humanitarian assistance." It also read that the participants "condemned in the strongest terms all terrorist activities and reaffirmed their firm commitment to combat terrorism in all its forms and manifestations." 
 
Nepal: Judicial crisis deepens as calls for chief justice's resignation grows
On 9 November, Chief Justice Cholendra Shumsher Rana assigned over 290 cases to Supreme Court justices who have not heard a single petition. This comes as judges are calling for the resignation of Rana, accusing him of colluding with political parties, especially with Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba, and even securing a ministerial berth for one of his relatives. Previously, 12 of the 20 judges met Rana calling on him to resign to save the dignity and credibility of the judiciary.
 
Pakistan: Government revokes ban on TLP
On 7 November, the Ministry of Interior notified that the government has revoked the ban on the Tehreek-i-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) "in the larger national interest" and in line with the "secret agreement" it had signed with the group on 31 October. The notification stated: "In exercise of the powers conferred under sub-section (I) of Section 11U of the Anti-Terrorism Act, 1997 (as amended), the federal government is pleased to remove the name of the Tehreek-i-Labbaik Pakistan from the First Schedule of the said Act as proscribed organisation for the purpose of the said Act." The lifting of the ban came after the Punjab government requested the same.
 
Afghanistan: 460 Afghan children killed in the first half of 2021; 600 Daesh members detained in last three months
On 4 November, the United Nations Children's Funds (UNICEF) in a report stated that at least 460 children were killed due to relentless violence in the first six months of the current year in Afghanistan. Additionally, the report expressed concern over the condition of the Afghan children stating: "Children are especially vulnerable to explosive remnants of war," adding, "All forms of violence against children must immediately come to an end." 
 
On 10 November, an intelligence department spokesperson stated: "In several parts of the country, nearly 600 members of Daesh who were involved in subversive acts and killings were detained," adding, "The detainees include some top members. They are in the prisons." Additionally, Zabiullah Mujahid, spokesman for the Taliban government stated: "Our efforts are continuing to root out (Daesh) but the threats have been reduced to a great extent."
 
Peace and Conflict from Central Asia, Middle East and Africa
Armenia-Azerbaijan: One year of war in Nagorno-Karabakh commemorated
On 8 November, Armenia and Azerbaijan observed the first anniversary of the end of the six-weeks long war in 2020 over Nagorno-Karabakh which resulted in over 6,000 deaths. In Azerbaijan, streets were filled with celebratory cheers as the peace deal signed in 2020 was seen as a win for Baku, and the Azerbaijani President declared 8 November as the "Victory Day." Meanwhile, on the Armenian side, the peace deal led to calls for the Prime Minister's resignation. Marking the one-year anniversary, opposition parties in Armenia demanded the resignation and maintained that the government should restrain itself from making any concessions to Azerbaijan. 
 
Iran: Vietnamese tanker freed; large-scale drill held in Sea of Oman
On 10 November, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said that a Vietnamese oil tanker, Sothys, had been released; the development comes after a confrontation with the US Navy. Iran had seized Sothys in October, claiming that the tanker was attempting to steal Iran's oil as per the US' wish. Prior to this, on 7 November, Iran conducted a sea, land and air military drill in the Sea of Oman where the above-mentioned confrontation had taken place before the commencement of the exercise. Al Jazeera quoted the Iranian commander-in-chief of the army: "Since we are aware that the enemy is trying to gather its required information after our forces mobilised in the area, from today we are reinforcing our efforts to monitor enemy movements that had begun days ago."
 
Iraq: PM survives assassination attempt; officials to arrest three people from Shiite group
On 8 November, Reuters reported on remarks by Iraqi officials who said that on 7 November, a drone attack targeting Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi was carried out with the involvement of an Iran-backed militia. The officials believed that the attack indicated the militias' willingness to use violence if they are excluded in the process of forming a government. Meanwhile, the Shafaq News agency reported that Iraqi officials had agreed to arrest three people belonging to a Shiite faction suspected to be involved in the attack. 
 
Yemen: Arab coalition continues airstrikes in Marib 
On 9 November, the Arab coalition claimed that it had carried out strikes in the Sirwah and Al-Jawf near Marib, and 110 Houthi rebels were killed at the time. The coalition said that the strikes helped destroy 22 military vehicles and a weapons storage facility. Previously, on 7 November, the coalition claimed that 138 Houthi rebels had been killed in similar strikes on Marib's Juba and Al-Kasarah districts; in these strikes, 17 military vehicles were destroyed. 
 
Ethiopia: UN's Ethiopian staff and WFP drivers detained in Addis Ababa 
On 10 November, the UN said that Ethiopian authorities had detained 72 drivers working with the World Food Programme (WFP). Previously, on 9 November, a UN spokesperson said that 16 Ethiopian staff members had been detained in Addis Ababa; another six were detained and released; the spokesperson said no reason for their detention had been specified. Condemning and reacting to the development, the US State Department spokesperson said: "We understand from reports… that those arrested are Tigrayan. Ethiopian government security force harassment and detention on the basis of ethnicity is completely unacceptable."
 
Democratic Republic of the Congo: 11,000 arrive in Uganda as fighting in North Kivu intensifies 
On 9 November, the UNHCR said that at least 11,000 people in the country's east had fled to Uganda due to the flaring up of tensions in North Kivu province. The development comes as fighting continues in Binja, Kinyarugwe and Chanzu villages. Previously, on 8 November, an assistant administrator linked the attacks to the M23 rebel group. On 7 November, the US had issued an alert warning of an attack on Goma, the province's capital. 
 
Niger: 69 including mayor killed in attack by gunmen
On 4 November, the government declared a two-days mourning for the victims of the latest attack by gunmen wherein 69 people, including a mayor, were killed by the former on 2 November. On the said date, gunmen ambushed a delegation that the Banibangou mayor was leading. The area lies in the area which borders Mali and Burkina Faso. 

Peace and Conflict from Europe and the Americas
The UK: Over 500 migrants cross the English Channel 
On 9 November, the UK's Home Office stated that more than 500 people crossed from France to the UK in 16 small boats. Meanwhile, French authorities also prevented 307 people in eight boats from making the crossing. This brings the total of migrants crossing the channel this year to 21,649, compared to 8,404 in 2020, 2,300 in 2019 and 600 in 2018. UK Home Secretary Priti Patel told Parliament that 70 per cent of those who tried to cross by small boat were single men who "are effectively economic migrants. They are not genuine asylum seekers." Additionally, Clandestine Channel Threat Commander said: "These journeys are dangerous and facilitated by violent criminal gangs profiting from misery."
 
Bosnia and Herzegovina: Dodik to move ahead with separatist agenda 
On 8 November, Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik stated that he would move ahead with plans to withdraw the Serbian-majority entity that makes up part of Bosnia-Herzegovina, Republika Srpska, from national institutions. During a meeting with the US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Gabriel Escobar, Dodik said: "neither I nor anyone called for war as an option at any time," adding, "We agree that stability and peace should be preserved" while pushing aside international concerns such an agenda becoming a trigger for renewed conflict in the ethnically divided Balkan country.
 
The US: Republican senators call for sanctions on the Russian-backed Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline
On 8 November, a group of US Senate Republicans proposed that they would introduce a legislation that would impose mandatory sanctions on Nord Stream 2, which they believe would be harmful to the US allies in the region. The six lawmakers, led by Senator Jim Risch, offered the measure as an amendment to the National Defense Authorisation Act, or NDAA, a sweeping defence policy bill that the Congress passes every year. Risch said: "Unsurprisingly, the Biden administration continues to ignore Congress' will on Nord Stream 2," adding, "So long as the administration continues to ignore the will of Congress, we will continue to push legislation that protects our allies and interests in Europe, while countering the Kremlin's malign influence projects."
 
Bolivia: Transport and retail unions go on indefinite strike  
On 8 November, the transport and retail unions launched an indefinite strike in protest of a law on a national strategy to combat the legitimization of "illicit profits and terrorist financing" which critics allege is a government tool to cease private property. The opposition also joined the strike, accusing the government of President Luis Arce of using laws and the justice system to centralize power and crackdown on dissent. Clashes broke out between protesters and police in several parts including Santa Cruz, Cochabamba, La Paz, Tarija, Potosi, Oruro and Beni where protestors blocked several roads.
 
Peru: Protesters block Las Bambas copper transport road again
On 9 November, Protesters in Peru's Cotabambas province blocked a key mining corridor used by the Las Bambas copper mine, despite a preliminary agreement to keep the road free. The President of the Cotabambas Defense Front stated that the protest resumed because there were scheduled talks on 9 November, however, the government and the mine failed to send senior representatives.
 
Cybersecurity: REvil ransomware hackers arrested; NSO group blacklisted
On 8 November, three hackers who used the REvil ransomware to infect and attempt to extort as many as 5,000 victims have been arrested in Romania in a joint operation led by the United States Justice Department (DOJ) along with Romanian police and Europol. Additionally, the authorities have also retrieved over USD six million in various cryptocurrencies. In another development, the US Department of Commerce stated that the NSO Group and Candiru, another Israeli company, were added to the Entity List "based on evidence that these entities developed and supplied spyware to foreign governments that used these tools to maliciously target government officials, journalists, business people, activists, academics, and embassy workers."
 



About the authors
Harini Madhusudan is a PhD Scholar; Apoorva Sudhakar and Abigail Miriam Fernandez are Research Associates at the School of Conflict and Security Studies in NIAS.


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Glynnis Winona B

What makes the UAE a global player?
Explaining the Governance, Economy, People, and Strategic Influence of a Small Middle Eastern State
May 2026 | CWA # 2113

Aishal Hab Yousuf

Sri Lanka and the US-Iran War 
Rising oil imports, Austerity measures and State capacity
May 2026 | CWA # 2111

NIAS Global Politics Team

The Trump-Xi Summit
The Africa Forward Summit 2026 I North Korea's Constitutional Amendment 2026
May 2026 | CWA # 2110

Aishal Hab Yousuf

The Trump-Xi Summit:
Managing Strategic Competition through Trade, Technology, and Diplomacy
May 2026 | CWA # 2092

NIAS Global Politics Team

The US-Iran War, Week Ten
CW Column on Middle East: Escalating Israeli Aggression in Lebanon I UAE's Covert Manoeuvres
May 2026 | CWA # 2090

Brighty Ann Sarah

The US-Iran War, Week Ten:
Fraying Ceasefire, Renewed Negotiations and the Risk of a Stalemate
May 2026 | CWA # 2089

Global Politics Team

King Charles's US Visit
May 2026 | CWA # 2088

Nithin V

Emphasis on strong bilateral relations, democratic values and security cooperation
May 2026 | CWA # 2087

Siddhi Halyur

Exploring Strategic Sectors of Cooperation
May 2026 | CWA # 2086

Aishal Hab Yousuf

Implications for the Middle East and the Energy Market
May 2026 | CWA # 2085

Glynnis Winona B

Growing US-Europe differences and Challenges for Berlin
May 2026 | CWA # 2083

Brighty Ann Sarah

The US-Iran War, Week Nine:
Deadlocked Negotiations, Competing Agendas and Domestic Pressure
May 2026 | CWA # 2082

Akshath Kaimal

Escalating Violence in Mali:
Between Ethnic Insurgencies, Jihadist Attacks, and Military Coups
April 2026 | CWA # 2080

Global Politics Team

Four Takeaways of the WFP's report on the fallouts of the Middle East crisis
April 2026 | CWA # 2079

Aishal Hab Yousuf

From Post-War Pacifism to Strategic Recalibration and Autonomy
April 2026 | CWA # 2074

Brighty Ann Sarah

Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire:
Asymmetric Terms, Fragile Truce and Israeli Occupation
April 2026 | CWA # 2073

Akshath Kaimal

The US-Iran War, Week Eight:
A Fragile Ceasefire, Attempts to Control Hormuz and the Stalled Talks in Islamabad
April 2026 | CWA # 2072

Anu Maria Joseph

Three Years of War in Sudan
Prolonged Stalemate, Humanitarian Cost, External Interventions and Regional Fallouts
April 2026 | CWA # 2070

NIAS Global Politics Team

The US-Iran War I Conflicts in Africa I The War in Ukraine I China-Japan Tensions I Pakistan-Afghanistan Clashes
April 2026 | CWA # 2069

Padmashree Anandhan

The War in Ukraine
Expanding Drone Warfare, Russia's Strategic Patience and Ukraine's Diplomatic Outreach
April 2026 | CWA # 2068

Femy Francis 

China-Japan Tensions
Escalating Defence Posturing and Economic Decoupling
April 2026 | CWA # 2067

Anu Maria Joseph

Conflicts in Africa
Continuing Conflicts in Sudan, South Sudan and DR Congo, Security issues in Nigeria, and Political Instability in Madagascar
April 2026 | CWA # 2065

Lakshmi Venugopal Menon

The US-Iran War, Israel-Hamas Conflict and their interconnected fallouts
April 2026 | CWA # 2064

Anwesha Ghosh

Gender Repression, Leadership Rifts, Regional Realignments and Clashes with Pakistan
April 2026 | CWA # 2063

Ramya B

Russia (Jan-Mar 2026)
Assertive Military Posture, Attempts for an Economic Turnaround and Search for Partners
April 2026 | CWA # 2062

Himani Pant

Europe (Jan-Mar 2026)
Trade diversification & FTAs, Increased defence spending, Tightening irregular migration and Economic slowdown
April 2026 | CWA # 2061

S Shaji

Africa (Jan-Mar 2026)
Elections, Civil Wars, Militancy and Peace Initiatives
April 2026 | CWA # 2059

Adarsh Vijay

April 2026 | CWA # 2058

Nishchal N Pandey  & Mahesh Raj Bhatta

Nepal (Jan-Mar 2026)
Political Upheaval, Generational Change and Economic Uncertainty
April 2026 | CWA # 2057

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar (Jan-Mar 2026)
An Illegitimate Regime's Consolidation Game
April 2026 | CWA # 2056

Ashik J Bonofer

Southeast Asia (Jan-Mar 2026)
Deteriorating situation in Myanmar, Philippines as the ASEAN Chair, New government in Thailand, and Economic & Environmental challenges
April 2026 | CWA # 2054

Amrita Jash

Regional assertion, Pragmatic recalibration with the West and Avoiding military entanglement in the Middle East
April 2026 | CWA # 2053

Anand V

The "Two Sessions," Recalibrated growth targets, Technology prioritization, and Military purges
April 2026 | CWA # 2052

Shreya Upadhyay

April 2026 | CWA # 2050

IPRI Team

March 2026 | CWA # 2042

Preetha Renganarayanan

Five Takeaways of the US Annual Threat Assessment (ATA) Report for 2026
March 2026 | CWA # 2039

Femy Francis

Trump-Xi Meeting
Why did Trump reschedule it? What does that mean?
March 2026 | CWA # 2035

Akshath Kaimal

Pakistan-Afghanistan Conflict
Broken ceasefire, Expanding military strikes and Worsening humanitarian situation
March 2026 | CWA # 2033

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal after elections:
Five major challenges for the new government
March 2026 | CWA # 2023

Femy Francis

New Five-Year Plan, Ethnic Unity Law, and an Enhanced Defence Budget
March 2026 | CWA # 2019

Akshath Kaimal

Rising Violence in Nigeria
Limited State Capacity, Multiple Actors, and a Complex Security Environment
March 2026 | CWA # 2017

Global Politics Team

March 2026 | CWA # 2011

Tanvi Thara Harendra Jha

Resetting Economic, Strategic and Cultural Ties
March 2026 | CWA # 2009

Sreemaya Nair

Nepal Elections 2026
Rise of a new leadership and Reset in political landscape
March 2026 | CWA # 2004

Akshath Kaimal

Instability returns, with a fragile peace agreement, uptick in violence and limited international engagement
March 2026 | CWA # 2003

Yesasvi Koganti

From bilateral ties to a special strategic partnership
March 2026 | CWA # 2002

Femy Francis

Reducing trade deficit and recalibrating economic cooperation with Beijing
March 2026 | CWA # 2001

Preetha Renganarayanan

Six major takeaways on the economy, border and internal security and Iran
February 2026 | CWA # 1998

Anu Maria Joseph

Instability in Sudan
Response to the genocide call and the threats of a regional spillover
March 2026 | CWA # 1991

Global Politics Team

February 2026 | CWA # 1986

Preetha Renganarayanan

Focus on Trade, Defense, Energy and Regional Connectivity
February 2026 | CWA # 1985

Abhimanyu Solanki

Basant in Pakistan
The return of Basant, and what it signifies
February 2026 | CWA # 1977

Anu Maria Joseph

Violence in Nigeria
US military deployment amidst worsening insurgency
February 2026 | CWA # 1976

Lekshmi MK

The War in Ukraine
The Geneva Talks and Growing Negotiation Asymmetry
December 2025 | CWA # 1971

Vani Vyshnavi Jupudi

Pakistan Budget 2025-26
Legislating stabilisation under IMF discipline and coalition constraints
December 2025 | CWA # 1970

Aparna A Nair

Pakistan & China
Ten Years of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)
November 2025 | CWA # 1968

Vani Vyshnavi Jupudi

Pakistan and the US
A New opening, or another cycle?
November 2025 | CWA # 1967

R Preetha

Risks, Reforms and Trajectories
November 2025 | CWA # 1966

Lekshmi MK

Five Questions on Challenges, Capacity and Policies
February 2026 | CWA # 1962

Global Politics Team

Regional Roundups: From East Asia to the Americas
February 2026 | CWA # 1961

Lekshmi MK

What does it mean for domestic politics and regional stability?
February 2026 | CWA # 1955

Global Politics Team

Regional Roundups: From East Asia to the Americas
January 2026 | CWA # 1947

Brighty Ann Sarah

January 2026 | CWA # 1946

Preetha Renganarayanan

The Davos Summit 2026
Five Major Takeaways from The World Economic Forum
January 2026 | CWA # 1945

Global Politics Team

January 2026 | CWA # 1943

Anu Maria Joseph

January 2026 | CWA # 1942

Lekshmi MK

January 2026 | CWA # 1941

Brighty Ann Sarah

January 2026 | CWA # 1940

IPRI Team

January 2026 | CWA # 1939

Lekshmi MK

January 2026 | CWA # 1937

Anu Maria Joseph

December 2025 | CWA # 1931

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1930

Aparna A Nair

December 2025 | CWA # 1924

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1914

Preetha Renganarayanan

December 2025 | CWA # 1913

Rohini Reenum

December 2025 | CWA # 1912

Lekshmi MK

December 2025 | CWA # 1911

Swati Sood

December 2025 | CWA # 1905

Femy Francis

December 2025 | CWA # 1902

Brighty Ann Sarah

December 2025 | CWA # 1893

Lekshmi MK

December 2025 | CWA # 1889

Femy Francis

December 2025 | CWA # 1881

Sunidhi Sampige

December 2025 | CWA # 1864

Femy Francis

Ten Takeaways of a SCMP Interview with a former PLA Colonel
December 2025 | CWA # 1861

Femy Francis

China Reader
November 2025 | CWA # 1859

Brighty Ann Sarah

November 2025 | CWA # 1858

Padmashree Anandhan

August 2025 | CWA # 1801

R Preetha

28 August 1963
Martin Luther King's "I Have a Dream" speech and the Civil Rights Movement in the US
August 2025 | CWA # 1790

GP Team

The World This Week#323-324
The Trump-Putin meeting & the US-China tariff extension
August 2025 | CWA # 1780

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

Trump tariffs:
Weaponization of access to the US economy
August 2025 | CWA # 1779

GP Team

The World This Week#322
US tariffs on India, Brazil and Canada & the EU-US trade deal
August 2025 | CWA # 1778

Lekshmi MK

28 July 1914
Austria-Hungary declares war on Serbia, starting the First World War
July 2025 | CWA # 1770

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

Pakistan-Afghanistan relations:
Why the focus on terrorism, refugees, and Uzbekistan as the third partner?
July 2025 | CWA # 1769

GP Team

The World This Week#321
Indian PM Modi's visit to the Maldives I Elections to the Upper House in Japan
July 2025 | CWA # 1762

Lekshmi MK

Ocean Darkening: 
What is the phenomenon? What are its effects? And who are more vulnerable?
July 2025 | CWA # 1749

R Preetha

Africa as the Hunger Epicenter
Of the 13 Global Hunger Hotspots, 8 are in Africa: Five reasons why
July 2025 | CWA # 1748

GP Team

The World This Week #318
PM Modi’s Visit to Trinidad and Tobago & Ghana, One big beautiful bill, and Quad Foreign Ministers Meeting
July 2025 | CWA # 1744

Chittrothu Vaihali

EU-Canada Summit 2025
What is security and defence partnership all about?
July 2025 | CWA # 1742

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly # 287-88
The 12 Day War and the Congo-Rwanda Peace Deal
July 2025 | CWA # 1738

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Thailand and Cambodia
What was the phone call between PM Shinawatra and President of Senate Hun Sen? What is the border dispute between the two? Why has this become an issue?
June 2025 | CWA # 1735

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025:
Trump making Europe great again
June 2025 | CWA # 1734

GP Team

The World This Week #317
NATO Summit 2025 and Russia-Mali bilateral agreements
June 2025 | CWA # 1733

Ananya Dinesh

China and the Pacific Islands 
What was the recent China-PIC joint statement about? What it says, and what it means?
June 2025 | CWA # 1728

M Kejia

G7 Summit 2025:
The Focus on the Middle East and Trade negotiations
June 2025 | CWA # 1726

GP Team

The World This Week #316
China-Central Asia Summit in Kazakhstan, and the G7 Summit in Canada
June 2025 | CWA # 1725

Brighty Ann Sarah, R Preetha, Santhiya M, Aparna A Nair & M Kejia

Operation Midnight Hammer: US bombs three nuclear sites in Iran
What were the three Iranian nuclear sites that were targeted? What are the B2 Bombers and Bunker Buster Bombs? What do these attacks mean? What Next?
June 2025 | CWA # 1724

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #286
The Spiralling Israel-Iran Crisis, and the Dangerous Hunger Hotspots
June 2025 | CWA # 1721

Rizwana Banu S and Santhiya M

Who are the Afrikaners?
Why is Trump interested in the Afrikaner question in South Africa?
June 2025 | CWA # 1720

Lekshmi MK

New WMO Report on Arctic Warming
What are the social, economic and environmental implications of Arctic warming
June 2025 | CWA # 1719

J Yamini  

China’s EV Surge
What contributes to the rise of BYD
June 2025 | CWA # 1717

J Yamini

Gender Violence in Pakistan:
What are the larger issues in the Noor Mukadam case?
June 2025 | CWA # 1715

Femy Francis

The US-China:
On Tariffs, Rare Earths and Visas
June 2025 | CWA # 1713

GP Team

The World This Week #315
The UN Ocean Conference in France and the US-China Meeting in London
June 2025 | CWA # 1712

R Preetha

June 2025 | CWA # 1705

GP Team

The World This Week #314
Elections in South Korea and Poland I China and the Pacific Island Countries I Bangladesh Election Announcement 2026
June 2025 | CWA # 1703

M Kejia 

Sagarmatha Sambaad in Nepal
Kathmandu’s Global Agenda for the Himalayas
June 2025 | CWA # 1700

R Preetha

Ethiopia bans the TPLF
What does the TPLF ban mean for the Pretoria agreement? What next for Ethiopia?
June 2025 | CWA # 1694

Aashish Ganeshan

The US:
Harvard vs Trump Administration
June 2025 | CWA # 1691

GP Team

The World This Week #313
China-ASEAN-GCC Summit I President Macron's visit to South East Asia I Trump Vs Harvard
May 2025 | CWA # 1690

GP Team

The World This Week #312
Elections in Romania, Portugal & Poland I UK-EU Summit
May 2025 | CWA # 1689

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine
Continuing Russia’s Aerial Attacks, despite exchange of prisoners
May 2025 | CWA # 1688

Ayan Datta

Gaza
The Humanitarian Crisis and Israel’s Renewed Offensive
May 2025 | CWA # 1685

Aparna A Nair

UK-EU Summit:
First step towards a reset
May 2025 | CWA # 1683

Aashish Ganeshan

Elections in Portugal:
The Rise of Chega Party and the Search for Political Stability
May 2025 | CWA # 1679

Aashish Ganeshan

US in the Middle Easr
Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE
May 2025 | CWA # 1678

Gauri Gupta

China in Latin America
China-CELAC forum: Strengthening ties with Latin America and Caribbean
May 2025 | CWA # 1677

GP Team

The World This Week #310-311
China in Latin America and the Carribbean I Trump's Middle East Visit I Denmark as the new Arctic Chair
May 2025 | CWA # 1675

Lekshmi MK

Turkey:
PKK disbands after 40 years of armed insurgency
May 2025 | CWA # 1673

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine:
The Discussion in Turkiye and the Elusive Ceasefire
May 2025 | CWA # 1671

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

US, Ukraine and Russia:
Air attacks amidst a Minerals deal and Ceasefire Proposals
May 2025 | CWA # 1670

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Singapore Elections in 2025:
People’s Action Party (PAP) Wins, Again
May 2025 | CWA # 1667

R Preetha and Brighty Ann Sarah

East Asia:
Tough Tariff Negotiations with the US
May 2025 | CWA # 1666

Padmashree Anandhan

The US-Ukraine
The mineral deal with the US
May 2025 | CWA # 1665
Conflict Weekly # 280-81
India-Pakistan De-escalation I Ukraine Discussion in Istanbul I The Battle over Port Sudan I Disbanding of PKK in Turkiye I France-Algeria Diplomatic Tensions
May 2025 | CWA # 1663

R Preetha

Canada Elections 2025:
What do the results convey? What next for Mark Carney?
October 2024 | CWA # 1480

IPRI Team

July 2024 | CWA # 1413

Ramya B

May 2024 | CWA # 1336

Femy Francis

April 2024 | CWA # 1275

Ramya B

March 2024 | CWA # 1251

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
March 2024 | CWA # 1246

Sivasubramanian K

February 2024 | CWA # 1226

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
November 2023 | CWA # 1148

GP Team

October 2023 | CWA # 1091

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri

Issues for Europe
October 2023 | CWA # 1087

PR Team

October 2023 | CWA # 1083

GP Team

August 2023 | CWA # 1049

IPRI Team

July 2023 | CWA # 1012

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar continues to burn
July 2023 | CWA # 1009

GP Team

December 2022 | CWA # 879

Padmashree Anandhan

The Ukraine War
December 2022 | CWA # 872

Sapna Elsa Abraham

November 2022 | CWA # 838

Rishma Banerjee

Tracing Europe's droughts
March 2022 | CWA # 705

NIAS Africa Team

In Focus: Libya
December 2021 | CWA # 630

GP Team

Europe in 2021
October 2021 | CWA # 588

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

TLP is back again
August 2021 | CWA # 528

STIR Team

Space Tourism
September 2020 | CWA # 337

Anju Annie Mammen

February 2020 | CWA # 235

Lakshmi V Menon

September 2019 | CWA # 162

Lakshman Chakravarthy N

5G: A Primer
December 2018 | CWA # 71

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal
December 2018 | CWA # 70

Nasima Khatoon

The Maldives
December 2018 | CWA # 69

Harini Madhusudan

India
December 2018 | CWA # 68

Sourina Bej

Bangladesh
December 2018 | CWA # 67

Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer

Afghanistan
July 2018 | CWA # 47

Rahul Arockiaraj

June 2018 | CWA # 26

Siddhatti Mehta