The Big Picture

CWA # 715
The Big Picture
Afghanistan, AUKUS, and Ukraine: A new strategy for India

Amit Gupta
8 April 2022
Photo Source:

The lessons for India are: do not rely on the West, broaden the country's strategic alternatives, and have a substantive discussion with China.  

Amit Gupta

In the past year, the following three international events should have given Indian security planners reasons to pause and reconsider the country's foreign policy: The American withdrawal from Afghanistan; the decision to make an AUKUS security grouping and the transfer of nuclear submarines to Australia; and the war in Ukraine. These three international developments have major security implications for India since they have created an unfavourable security environment for New Delhi. They have also brought home some bitter truths that the country's decision makers have to recognize and address.

Afghanistan, AUKUS and Ukraine
In Afghanistan, the Biden administration left abruptly thus leading to the Ghani forces quickly disintegrating in the face of Taliban troops. No one bothered to consult the countries in the region about what to do to leave behind a stable security environment? As a consequence, India now has to deal with yet another Taliban regime in Kabul.  

AUKUS was a blow to India for two reasons. First, it was the creation of a grouping of white nations to build a security architecture in Asia, thus leading to charges in some Asian capitals that the West was being patronizing by stating that it would achieve regional security in Asia rather than leaving it to the natives of the region. Secondly, in the wake of all the hype about the Quadrilateral Initiative, one would have thought that the US and the UK would have offered nuclear submarines to both (emphasis added) Australia and India, but, instead, the offer was made to the country with whom the two nuclear powers had a cultural and racial affinity. 

Ukraine should have brought home that in the event of a major war the West's reliability as an ally has to be questioned. Some western nations encouraged, and some believe actually engineered, the overthrow of the democratically elected Victor Yanukovych government in Ukraine and more recently encouraged Zelensky to adopt an aggressive approach towards Russia. In the face of a bloody war, where Ukraine has shown stout resistance, the West's limited support has caused considerable frustration in Kyiv.  Cynics state that the West is fighting Russia to the last Ukrainian, and the devastation brought upon Ukraine will take decades to repair. The three million Ukrainian refugees in Europe will soon strain the facilities in the host countries and one can only wonder how long these countries will remain as good-willed and generous towards the refugees?

Charting a new strategy for India
Put simply, the lessons for India are: do not rely on the west, broaden the country's strategic alternatives, and have a substantive discussion with China.  

Broadening India's security alternatives means strengthening the ties with the Asian countries to boost the Indian economy. Both Southeast Asia and the Gulf are interested in expanding their economic and technological ties with India. The UAE has asked for Indian scientific assistance in developing its space program while countries like Oman and Saudi Arabia want to increase their investments in India. New Delhi should be encouraging such investments and partnerships.  

The Southeast Asians can invest in 24 of the 25 sectors (defense being the exception) in the Make in India initiative and the Indian government would be smart to take up this offer and work to have greater economic integration with the countries to the east. Keep in mind that ASEAN is now China's largest trading partner, with China-ASEAN bilateral trade having reached $724 billion in 2020. India cannot afford to have an ASEAN that is firmly ensconced in the Chinese economic camp. 

The second strategic initiative is to build deeper ties with France and, depending of the fallout of the Ukraine war, Russia. France was dealt an economic blow and a political slight by the Biden Administration which persuaded Australia to scrap its submarine deal with Paris and, instead, enter the AUKUS agreement. It is time for India to go to France and ask for the transfer of nuclear submarines because Paris may be willing to take this decision since it sees the long-term value of the Indian market.  

Much will depend on how long Western sanctions on Russia remain so as to determine the future of the India-Russia security relationship. Long term sanctions on Russia will lead to a surge in oil, fertilizer, and wheat prices and only increase the growing inflation in western economies. Additionally, there are serious doubts that the Europeans will spend the money they normally spend on social welfare programs to boost defense expenditure. 

As mentioned above, the strain of hosting three million refugees will also hurt western economies and boost tensions in the region. If these concerns lead to splits in Western political resolve against Russia, there may be a dilution of sanctions. In that case, India should strengthen the security relationship with Russia both to increase its strategic autonomy and to ensure that Russia, out of economic and political desperation, does not get too close to China. A strong coalition between Moscow and Beijing would not be a welcome outcome for Indian strategic planners. This then brings up the question of China. 

After Galwan, India-China relations have touched an all-time low, and some Indians have been talking of militarily resisting China. One good thing coming out of the excellent coverage by the Indian media of the Ukraine war is that the Indian public now realizes how devastating a military conflict can be to the general population. Also, while parts of the Indian media and some military analysts have made hawkish statements about China, the one person who has been silent is the Indian Prime Minister. Modi has steadfastly refrained from attacking China, and one can conjecture that the Prime Minister would like to retain negotiating space with Beijing.  

Now is the time, therefore, to use that negotiating space because the Chinese recognize that in the polarized world created by the Ukraine war, and its possible consequences for a Taiwanese push for independence, they need more friends and less enemies in the international system. India should start a high-level meeting with China and state that while there are serious differences between the two countries—most notably the border—what concrete steps can the two countries take to normalize their interactions? 

One such move may be to talk about enhancing trade since both India and China stand to benefit from it. This would be a controversial move by the Indian government, but the Prime Minister has the internal stature to pull it off and right now, the Chinese will be receptive. Once tensions ease and the strategic environment changes, they may revert to a harder position.  

To sum up, India must not depend on a potential alliance with the west and take steps to broaden its strategic autonomy.  

About the author

Amit Gupta is a Defense and Economics analyst based in the United States. He can be contacted at agupta1856@gmail.com  


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What was the phone call between PM Shinawatra and President of Senate Hun Sen? What is the border dispute between the two? Why has this become an issue?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1735

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025:
Trump making Europe great again
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1734

GP Team

The World This Week #317
NATO Summit 2025 and Russia-Mali bilateral agreements
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1733

Ananya Dinesh

China and the Pacific Islands 
What was the recent China-PIC joint statement about? What it says, and what it means?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1728

M Kejia

G7 Summit 2025:
The Focus on the Middle East and Trade negotiations
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1726

GP Team

The World This Week #316
China-Central Asia Summit in Kazakhstan, and the G7 Summit in Canada
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1725

Brighty Ann Sarah, R Preetha, Santhiya M, Aparna A Nair & M Kejia

Operation Midnight Hammer: US bombs three nuclear sites in Iran
What were the three Iranian nuclear sites that were targeted? What are the B2 Bombers and Bunker Buster Bombs? What do these attacks mean? What Next?
Conflict Weekly
June 2025 | CWA # 1724

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #286
The Spiralling Israel-Iran Crisis, and the Dangerous Hunger Hotspots
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1721

Rizwana Banu S and Santhiya M

Who are the Afrikaners?
Why is Trump interested in the Afrikaner question in South Africa?
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1720

Lekshmi MK

New WMO Report on Arctic Warming
What are the social, economic and environmental implications of Arctic warming
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1719

J Yamini  

China’s EV Surge
What contributes to the rise of BYD
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1717

J Yamini

Gender Violence in Pakistan:
What are the larger issues in the Noor Mukadam case?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1715

Femy Francis

The US-China:
On Tariffs, Rare Earths and Visas
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1713

GP Team

The World This Week #315
The UN Ocean Conference in France and the US-China Meeting in London
CW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1712

R Preetha

The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1705

GP Team

The World This Week #314
Elections in South Korea and Poland I China and the Pacific Island Countries I Bangladesh Election Announcement 2026
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1703

M Kejia 

Sagarmatha Sambaad in Nepal
Kathmandu’s Global Agenda for the Himalayas
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1700

R Preetha

Ethiopia bans the TPLF
What does the TPLF ban mean for the Pretoria agreement? What next for Ethiopia?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1694

Aashish Ganeshan

The US:
Harvard vs Trump Administration
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1691

GP Team

The World This Week #313
China-ASEAN-GCC Summit I President Macron's visit to South East Asia I Trump Vs Harvard
The World This Week
May 2025 | CWA # 1690

GP Team

The World This Week #312
Elections in Romania, Portugal & Poland I UK-EU Summit
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1689

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine
Continuing Russia’s Aerial Attacks, despite exchange of prisoners
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1688

Ayan Datta

Gaza
The Humanitarian Crisis and Israel’s Renewed Offensive
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1685

Aparna A Nair

UK-EU Summit:
First step towards a reset
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1683

Aashish Ganeshan

Elections in Portugal:
The Rise of Chega Party and the Search for Political Stability
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1679

Aashish Ganeshan

US in the Middle Easr
Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1678

Gauri Gupta

China in Latin America
China-CELAC forum: Strengthening ties with Latin America and Caribbean
The World This Week
May 2025 | CWA # 1677

GP Team

The World This Week #310-311
China in Latin America and the Carribbean I Trump's Middle East Visit I Denmark as the new Arctic Chair
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1675

Lekshmi MK

Turkey:
PKK disbands after 40 years of armed insurgency
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1673

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine:
The Discussion in Turkiye and the Elusive Ceasefire
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1671

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

US, Ukraine and Russia:
Air attacks amidst a Minerals deal and Ceasefire Proposals
Global Politics Early Bird
May 2025 | CWA # 1670

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Singapore Elections in 2025:
People’s Action Party (PAP) Wins, Again
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1667

R Preetha and Brighty Ann Sarah

East Asia:
Tough Tariff Negotiations with the US
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1666

Padmashree Anandhan

The US-Ukraine
The mineral deal with the US
Conflict Weekly
May 2025 | CWA # 1665
Conflict Weekly # 280-81
India-Pakistan De-escalation I Ukraine Discussion in Istanbul I The Battle over Port Sudan I Disbanding of PKK in Turkiye I France-Algeria Diplomatic Tensions
Global Politics Early Bird
May 2025 | CWA # 1663

R Preetha

Canada Elections 2025:
What do the results convey? What next for Mark Carney?
Conflict Weekly 250th Issue
October 2024 | CWA # 1480

IPRI Team

This Week in History
July 2024 | CWA # 1413

Ramya B

Global Politics Early Bird
May 2024 | CWA # 1336

Femy Francis

This Week in History
April 2024 | CWA # 1275

Ramya B

NIAS Global Politics Database
March 2024 | CWA # 1251

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
This Week in History
March 2024 | CWA # 1246

Sivasubramanian K

NIAS Global Politics Database
February 2024 | CWA # 1226

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
The World This Week
November 2023 | CWA # 1148

GP Team

The War in Ukraine
October 2023 | CWA # 1091

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri

Issues for Europe
NIAS Pakistan Weekly
October 2023 | CWA # 1087

PR Team

The World This Week
October 2023 | CWA # 1083

GP Team

Conflict Weekly
August 2023 | CWA # 1049

IPRI Team

IPRI Quarterly Forecasts I Triggers, Trends, and Trajectories
July 2023 | CWA # 1012

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar continues to burn
The World This Week
July 2023 | CWA # 1009

GP Team

2022: The World This Year
December 2022 | CWA # 879

Padmashree Anandhan

The Ukraine War
2022: The World This Year
December 2022 | CWA # 872

Sapna Elsa Abraham

Europe: Heatwaves, Wildfires, Droughts, and Ice Melt in Alps
November 2022 | CWA # 838

Rishma Banerjee

Tracing Europe's droughts
NIAS Africa Weekly
March 2022 | CWA # 705

NIAS Africa Team

In Focus: Libya
The World This Week: 150th Issue
December 2021 | CWA # 630

GP Team

Europe in 2021
Pakistan Reader
October 2021 | CWA # 588

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

TLP is back again
NIAS Fortnightly on Science, Technology & International Relations
August 2021 | CWA # 528

STIR Team

Space Tourism
GLOBAL PROTEST MOVEMENTS
September 2020 | CWA # 337

Anju Annie Mammen

The FATF Meeting, February 2020
February 2020 | CWA # 235

Lakshmi V Menon

Science, Technology and International Relations
September 2019 | CWA # 162

Lakshman Chakravarthy N

5G: A Primer
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 71

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 70

Nasima Khatoon

The Maldives
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 69

Harini Madhusudan

India
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 68

Sourina Bej

Bangladesh
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 67

Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer

Afghanistan
United States
July 2018 | CWA # 47

Rahul Arockiaraj

East Asia
June 2018 | CWA # 26

Siddhatti Mehta