IN FOCUS | The ceasefire in Ethiopia

CWA # 853

NIAS AFRICA WEEKLY

IN FOCUS | The ceasefire in Ethiopia

NIAS Africa Team
29 November 2022

Photo Source: SIPHIWESIBEKO | Reuters

Africa Weekly #40, Vol. 1, No. 40
29 November 2022

IN BRIEF

A war and truce between Ethiopia and Tigray

Tigrayans are divided on the effectiveness of the peace deal as a particular section consider the deal a surrender while the others consider it as a signal that Abiy Ahmed would return to his peaceful ways. Only time can tell whether the deal is genuine or an act to deal with the concerned parties’ immediate predicaments vis-à-vis the war.
S Shaji

Government of Ethiopia and Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the dissident group from Tigray, a northern state in Ethiopia in the Horn of Africa, signed a Peace Agreement on 2 November 2022, which was brokered by the African Union (AU). Accordingly, both the sides agreed for the permanent cessation of hostilities. The Agreement, which was signed on November 2nd in Pretoria, South Africa, is considered to be a significant step in ending the civil war which broke out in 2020. In fact, there has been huge criticism from various quarters from across the world that there is significant digression from the path of democracy in Ethiopia in recent times, a State which was applauded for its democratic turn under the leadership Abiy Ahmed, a few years ago. Abiy Ahmed, the Ethiopian President, once a favourite political figure in the Western discourse, began to face confrontation for his role in the Tigray civil war which killed and displaced thousands.

From various news reports, it is understood that the agreement has put forth various clauses which are promising but seem overambitious. For instance, the deal suggests that TPLF would agree to the previous constitutional order and would disarm itself and would also provide adequate representation to Tigrayan population in employment and education. In other words, the deal envisions the restoration of the Ethiopian government’s constitutional authority in Tigray region. In addition, the deal also includes provisions for access to Tigrayans to obtain civilian services, which were denied to them in the last two years, mainly through the blockade that the Ethiopian government had imposed on the people from the region. It is also reported that 13 million people would require humanitarian assistance, most notably in terms of food and medicine supply. It is further agreed that the federal government would facilitate the return of several thousand displaced families. In addition, the implementation of the deal is to be monitored by a group of experts (around 10), appointed by AU. Of course, the Government of Eritrea is not party to the deal though they have ongoing feuds with TPLF. The issues in Western Tigray which remain unresolved are also not covered in the deal. The truce also speaks about introducing a ‘Comprehensive National Transitional Justice Policy’ to deal with justice and accountability issues. In addition, the Federal Government of Ethiopia has promised to remove the tag linked to TPLF as a terrorist organization.

If one looks at the background of violence in Ethiopia, like many other conflicts in Africa, it is closely linked to historical and ethnic fault lines and ethnic nationalism. On the ethnic front, Oromos and Amharas constitute nearly 60 per cent of the Ethiopian population whereas Tigrayans constitute less than 10 per cent of the population. At certain points in the past, Tigrayan had a substantial presence in the government, bureaucracy and so on, under the notion of ethnic federalism that came into existence in 1991. The capture of power by the majority group - Oromos and Amharas, in Ethiopian politics substantially reduced the power and representation of Tigray groups, which led to the emergence of Tigrayan ethnic nationalism which took a violent turn in 2020. In 2020, Tigray regional elections led to the war, with the Abiy Ahmed led Ethiopian Government questioning the validity of electoral processes in Tigray region. In the said election, according to the electoral officials, TPLF won more than 98 per cent votes. This was the time when Abiy Ahmed refused to hold general elections in the country citing Covid- 19 related restrictions. Thus, the conflict over the validity and the timings of the elections led to the Ethiopian troops, along with Amhara militia attacking the Tigray region in the western part of Tigray while Eritrean troops occupied the northern region.

Africa observers point out certain problems in the peace deal. For instance, the deal has not included the Eritrean Government, which is also a party to the conflict, though certain clauses indirectly imply dealing with forces inimical to both parties involved in the deal (the Ethiopian government and TPLF). Second, the deal does not include the Government of Tigray, but only the TPLF. Third, the deal does not talk about a broad monitoring, verification, and compliance mechanism to supervise the implementation of the deal. The mechanism, envisaged in the deal, is restricted to a committee of just 10 eminent persons, appointed by AU and reports to the latter, which is headed by Olesegun Obasanjo, the former Nigerian President. In other words, international actors such as the United Nations (UN) and the European Union (a prominent aid partner) are completely overlooked in this connection. Similarly, justice and accountability mechanisms are weak; a broad form in terms of a comprehensive transitional justice policy at national level is proposed which is not mandated to be supervised by prominent international human rights organisations.

Of late, it is also reported that Tigrayans are divided on the effectiveness of the peace deal as a particular section consider the deal a surrender while the others consider it as a signal that Abiy Ahmed would return to his peaceful ways (of pre-2020). If the Guerrilla warfare continues in the region even after the truce, it can weaken the perceived peace dividend. Several thousands of people in Tigray were subjected to unprecedented violence to the extent that their very survival itself has been at stake. Therefore, as a way out, the truce has been agreed upon. From an Ethiopian standpoint, it requires the support of the West and wants to avoid the interventions of outside parties in the internal conflicts of the country. Only time can tell whether the deal is genuine or an act to deal with the concerned parties’ immediate predicaments vis-à-vis the war. However, one can emphatically assume that inclusive policies and genuine federalism that addresses the concerns of various ethnic groups is the route to resolve conflicts in a multi-ethnic State like Ethiopia in the long run.

Ethiopia-Tigray ceasefire, and the complex roadmap for peace

The Ethiopia-Tigray peace agreement is a delicate opportunity to consolidate a permanent ceasefire and long-term stability in Ethiopia, though initial steps appear complex.
Anu Maria Joseph

On 2 November, the Ethiopian government, and Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) agreed to a permanent ceasefire ending two years of conflict that left half a million people dead, thousands displaced and nearly nine million in urgent need of humanitarian aid. The peace talks were brokered by the African Union under mediation of former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo and former Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta in South Africa.

On 13 November, military leaders from Ethiopia and the Tigray region held another meeting in Nairobi, where they agreed to unhindered humanitarian access to the region and to form a joint disarmament committee.

The AU Chairperson Moussa Faki Mahamat said the deal is a “unique opportunity towards the restoration of peace.” Obasanjo said that both the parties have agreed on an “orderly, smooth and coordinated disarmament” along with “restoration of law and order,” “unilateral access to humanitarian supplies,” and “restoration of services.” Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said: “The commitment to peace remains steadfast and our commitment to collaborating for the implementation of the agreement is equally strong. The TPLF said: “Ultimately, the fact that we have reached a point where we have now signed an agreement speaks volumes about the readiness on the part of the two sides to lay the past behind them to chart a new path of peace.” The UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres welcomed the agreement, and his spokesperson said: “It is very much a welcome first step, which we hope can start to bring some solace to the millions of Ethiopian civilians that have really suffered during the conflict.” The US Department of State spokesperson said: “The African Union’s announcement of the signing of a cessation of hostilities between the government of Ethiopia and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front represents an important step towards peace.”
Four takeaways of the ceasefire agreement

The following are the major takeaways of the ceasefire agreement:
First, a permanent cessation of hostilities. Following the agreement, the Ethiopian government and the TPLF agreed to a permanent cessation of hostilities, including acts of violence, airstrikes, obstruction, “hostile propaganda, rhetoric and hate speech.” In addition, both the parties agreed not to intrigue with any external forces hostile to either of the parties as well as agreed on the protection of civilians who have been affected by the violence.

Second, Disarmament. Both the parties agreed on a single defence force for Ethiopia and on TPLF entering a disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration (DDR) programme. Besides, TPLF has agreed to a full disarmament, including light weapons within 30 days. In addition, Ethiopian forces will return to their former military base in Mekelle, Tigray regional capital.

Third, restoration of federal authority and political inclusion of Tigray. Based on the agreement, a new interim administration will be appointed for Tigray until elections after both sides agree on the restoration of Ethiopia’s federal government in Tigray. TPLF also committed to “cease all attempts of bringing an unconstitutional change of government.” Meanwhile, the Ethiopian government has agreed to an inclusive representation of Tigrayans at the centre addressing the fundamental issue of ethnic marginalisation.

Four, restoration of humanitarian aid and services. Since the conflict began in November 2021, the Tigray region was deprived of basic communication and essential services. Besides, nearly 5 million people were at the brink of famine after food and humanitarian aid to the region were constantly blocked.
Now, both sides have agreed to abide by international humanitarian law. The federal government has committed to work with humanitarian agencies to allow unhindered access to aid in Tigray. The government has also agreed to facilitate restoration of essential services and the return and repatriation of the displaced.

What does the ceasefire mean?
The sudden ceasefire is a significant achievement, a hope to end the two-year deadly conflict. The successful peace deal is an achievement for the African Union and its objective of ‘African solution to African problems.’ However, achieving a permanent ceasefire in Tigray won't be easy.

The conflict is rooted in a long-standing ethnopolitical rift, violent regime change, failed truce, and a large humanitarian crisis which makes the ceasefire agreement seem increasingly volatile. The ceasefire was reached on the sidelines of intense pressure by Ethiopian forces and Eritrean forces on TPLF and the international community on the Ethiopian government. Besides, the uncertainty over unaddressed issues and the critical question of how and when the key provisions of the agreement would be implemented on the ground remain unclear.

The agreement makes no explicit mention of Eritreans or forces from Ethiopia's neighbourhood that have fought alongside the Ethiopian army. Though the agreement states that the Ethiopian army will protect the country from “foreign incursion,” many are sceptical about whether Eritrea, TPLF’s sworn enemy, would abide. In addition, political issues including territorial disputes between Tigray and neighbouring Amhara region remain unresolved. Lack of trust between the warring parties is challenging. Furthermore, uncertainty persists over the AU’s lack of effective mechanisms to oversee and enforce the peace process. The question of implementation of key provisions in the deal including Tigray’s interim administration, elections, distribution of humanitarian aid and resumption of blocked services remain unresolved. In sum, the agreement is a delicate opportunity to consolidate a permanent ceasefire and long-term stability in Ethiopia, though the initial steps appear complex.

(*Parts of this commentary were previously published in an earlier Conflict Weekly issue)

AFRICA IN BRIEF
22 November - 28 November
Anu Maria Joseph and Apoorva Sudhakar

SOUTH SUDAN
County commissioner orchestrated gangrape, says UN panel
On 28 November, the UN Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan said that it had reasons to believe that the Unity state’s county commissioner oversaw the gangrape of several women and girls at a military camp. A Commission member said sexual violence related to conflict resulted from impunity and that it had become systematic. The Commission quotes witnesses who said the commissioner had planned the sexual violence and his deputy carried it forward; patterns similar to the above offence were observed in other places. However, the South Sudan Information Minister dismissed these claims accusing the UN officials of falsely reporting the above to make money. (“UN panel accuses South Sudan officials of overseeing gang rapes,” Al Jazeera, 28 November 2022)

ETHIOPIA
Measles outbreak hit Oromia region
On 23 November, residents in the Oromia region of Ethiopia said that children have been dying from a measles outbreak for the past few months. They say that blackades caused by the ongoing conflict have hampered medical facilities reaching the region. The federal government and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) have been fighting a deadly insurgency in western insurgency. In October, the UN reported that the humanitarian situation in the Oromia region “remains complex.” The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) said: “Access, security and resources remain challenging to reach the affected population.” (“Ethiopia rebel stronghold hit by measles outbreak,” BBC, 23 November 2022)

AU mediators visits Tigray
On 24 November, BBC reported that the African Union mediators are visiting the war-devastated Tigray region as part of their latest effort to implement a peace deal signed between the federal government and Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). Though a peace deal has been signed between the warring parties, the BBC report says little food, medication and other essentials have reached Tigray. Another issue being the disarmament of Tigrayan forces, and the withdrawal of Eritrean forces. The government says the issue of presence of foreign forces will be dealt with when the federal forces are deployed in Tigray borders. (“AU mediators visit war-devastated Tigray,” BBC, 24 November 2022)

SOMALIA
President Mohamud launches anti al-Shabaab TV channel
On 24 November, the state media reported that President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud inaugurated a new TV channel named Daljir to counter al-Shabab’s propaganda as the government intensifies its media campaign against the group. In October, the Somali government had banned over 500 social media accounts spreading al-Shabab’s ideologies. The information ministry said that the crackdown on al-shabaab linked media was part of “an all-out war” against the group which the president declared in August. (“Somalia launches anti-al-Shabab TV channel,” BBC, 24 November 2022)

Hotel siege by al Shabaab leaves eight dead
On 28 November, security forces ended a siege by al Shabaab of a hotel near the president’s residence in the capital Mogadishu. A police spokesperson said that eight civilians and a policeman had been killed and 60 were rescued. The spokesperson said one of the al Shabaab terrorist blew himself up and security forces killed five after the attack began on 27 November. The environment minister was residing in the hotel; he said the government would not give up the fight against al Shabaab. (“Abdiqani Hassan And Mukelwa Hlatshwayo, “Somali troops overpower militants to end hotel siege,” Reuters, 28 November 2022; “Eight civilians dead as Somalia hotel siege ends,” News24, 28 November 2022)

SOUTH AFRICA
President Ramaphosa visits Buckingham palace
On 23 November, King Charles hosted South African President Cyril Ramaphosa as the first state visit of his reign at Buckingham palace. He hailed the cultural and trading links between the UK and South Africa as well as acknowledged the difficult legacy of colonialism. The King said: “We must acknowledge the wrongs which have shaped our past if we are to unlock the power of our common future.” He called for better partnerships which would tackle the “existential threats of climate change and biodiversity loss.” In response, Ramaphosa called for improved trade and investment relations with the UK and South Africa and to help the country in dealing with the power outage issue. (“King hails Mandela friendship on South Africa state visit Published,” BBC, 23 November 2022)

NAMIBIA
Statue of German colonial officer taken down
On 23 November, the statue of a controversial German colonial officer Von François was taken down after a successful petition. The statue was erected in 1965 honouring the officer as the city’s founder. Von François was a senior officer in the then colony of South West Africa, current day Namibia. He was the commanding officer during the Hoornkrans massacre which was an operation against the Nama rebellion where at least 80 people were killed. Activist Hildegard Titus, who led the petition to take down the statue said that François had “wrongly been called the founder of Windhoek'' and that he was a symbol of “colonial oppression.” (“Namibia takes down statue of German colonial officer,” BBC, 23 November 2022)

MALAWI
Vice president arrested over corruption allegations
On 25 November, the Anti-Corruption Bureau said it had arrested Vice President Saulos Chilima for allegedly awarding government contracts after accepting money up to USD 280,000 and other items from bidders. The ACB said Chilima had assisted two companies linked to British businessman Zuneth Sattar in securing the contracts. The ACB said it had been investigating Sattar and some public officers for plundering state resources by influencing the contracts via the public procurement system. The development comes after a Financial Times report which said the UK National Crime Agency (NCA) was investigating Sattar for reportedly abusing the public procuring system in Malawi. (“Malawi vice president arrested by anti-corruption bureau,” Al Jazeera, 25 November 2022)

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO
Clashes resume despite ceasefire
On 25 November, clashes between the M23 rebel group and the army resumed, two days after a ceasefire was declared by DRC, Rwanda, Burundi, Angola, and Uhuru Kenyatta, the former president of Kenya and a mediator. On 24 November, Al Jazeera quoted an M23 spokesperson: “M23 has seen the document on social media … There was nobody in the summit [from M23] so it doesn’t really concern us … Normally when there is a ceasefire, it is between the two warring sides.” (“DRC fighting resumes, M23 say ceasefire deal doesn’t affect them,” Al Jazeera, 25 November 2022)

NIGERIA
At least 130 people kidnapped by gunmen
On 22 November, BBC reported, at least 130 people were kidnapped by gunmen in Nigeria's north-western state of Zamfara. The state's information commissioner said that the gunment on motorcycles raided two regions and abducted women, children and the elderly. He added that the gunmen were using the victims as "human shields" following the ongoing "heavy bombardments" targeting their hideouts. However, separate reports said that the people abducted were farm workers who were busy during the harvesting season. Zamfara is one among the Nigerian States struggling with ransom kidnappings. (“Gunmen kidnap 130 in raids in north-west Nigeria,” BBC, 22 November 2022)

BURKINA FASO
French embassy requests protection after violent protests
On 21 November, the French embassy requested the Burkinabe government for more protection after violent anti-French protests on 18 November. The protests were carried out in front of the French embassy and military base demanding French soldiers to leave. A French embassy letter said: "The events suffered in October and November are susceptible to be repeated in the coming days, if nothing is done." Burkina Faso's chief of staff of the national gendarmerie said that the security officers outside the embassy were not well equipped to handle the protest and that they were waiting for orders from authorities for reinforcement, which took several hours. The worsening Islamist insurgency in Burkina Faso is perceived as neo-colonial influence from Paris, subsequently calling for a partnership with Russia similar to Mali. ("French embassy asks Burkina Faso for more protection after protests," Reuters, 22 November 2022)

MALI
French-supported NGOs ordered to cease activities
On 21 November, the military government ordered non-governmental organisations, supported or funded by France, to stop their activities with immediate effect. The development comes a week after France halted development aid to Mali. The Malian government said the French move “intended to deceive and manipulate” public opinion for “destabilizing and isolating Mali.” The government also said that the French assistance was “dehumanizing aid used as a means of blackmailing rulers and actively supporting terrorist groups operating on Malian soil.” (“Mali bans NGOs supported by France amid diplomatic row,” Who owns Africa, 22 November 2022)

SAO TOME AND PRINCIPE
Coup attempt contained, says PM
On 25 November, Prime Minister Patrice Trovoada said a coup attempt had been foiled and six people, including former national assembly president Delfim Neves, had been detained for the same. The Economic Community of West African States condemned the development. The ECOWAS Chairman, also the Guinea-Bissau President, Umaro Sissoco Embalo emphasised that Sao Tome and Principe was known to be a model democracy in the continent. (“Coup attempt thwarted in Sao Tome and Principe, PM says,” Al Jazeera, 25 November 2022)

About the authors
S Shaji teaches at the Department of Political Science, University of Hyderabad. Anu Maria Joseph is a Research Assistant at the National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bangalore. Apoorva Sudhakar is a Research Associate at the National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bangalore.

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Lekshmi MK

Climate Change and Pakistan's Economic Faultlines:

Six takeaways on inadequate climate finance, spillover effects, and low climate prioritisation

PR Review

June 2026 | CWA # 2191

Dhivya KM

Pakistan's Economy in the Second Quarter:

Five Takeaways from the SBP Half Year Report on GDP growth, target-range inflation, and fiscal surplus

The World This Week

July 2026 | CWA # 2190

NIAS Global Politics Team

China-DPRK friendship treaty I The IMF World Economic Outlook

TWTW Review

July 2026 | CWA # 2189

Dhivya KM

Five takeaways on Global growth, AI, and Economic resilience

TWTW Note

July 2026 | CWA # 2188

Adwaith Sankar

65 years of the China-DPRK friendship treaty:

Reopening links, Russia factor, and Nuclear compromise

TWTW Note

July 2026 | CWA # 2187

Avaneesh S

China's SLBM test in the Pacific:

Modernization, Increasing deterrence and Strategic messaging

TWTW Note

July 2026 | CWA # 2186

Lekshmi MK

NATO Summit 2026:

Four takeaways on Alliance unity, Defence commitments, and Support for Ukraine

Conflict Weekly

July 2026 | CWA # 2185

Global Politics Team

Iran after Ali Khamenei I The War in Ukraine

CW Review

July 2026 | CWA # 2184

Deb Dutta

Four takeaways on Forced returns, Collapsing protection, Protracted crises

CW Note

July 2026 | CWA # 2183

Preetha Renganarayanan

Europe's expanding and intensifying heatwaves:

CW Column

July 2026 | CWA # 2182

Anu Maria Joseph

Africa This Week

JNIM-FLA coordinated attacks in Mali and the RSF siege in Sudan

CW Note

July 2026 | CWA # 2181

Padmashree Anandhan

The War in Ukraine:

Deep strikes, NATO diplomacy and the Expanding air warfare

CW Note

July 2026 | CWA # 2180

Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella

Iran after Ali Khamenei

Institutional resilience, Anti-American sentiment and an Unresolved conflict

GP Explainer

July 2026 | CWA # 2179

Avaneesh S

The "Power of Siberia 2" pipeline:

Russia's endgame and China's calculus

The World This Week

July 2026 | CWA # 2178

CW Note

July 2026 | CWA # 2171

Radhika M Agarwal

Anand V

China's Domestic Landscape (April-June 2026):

Reforms, Regulations, Reinvention and Risk Management

Conflict Weekly

June 2026 | CWA # 2161

NIAS Global Politics Team

Africa's Conference on Slavery

The US-Iran MoU I Ukraine's Crimea Campaign

CW Note

June 2026 | CWA # 2160

Radhika M Agarwal

The War in Ukraine:

Ukraine's Crimea Campaign, The Belarus Standoff, and Russia's Aerial Bombardment

CW Note

June 2026 | CWA # 2159

Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella

The US-Iran MoU

Renewed strikes, Persistent disagreements, and a Fragile Agreement

CW Column: Africa This Week

June 2026 | CWA # 2158

Anu Maria Joseph

The World This Week

June 2026 | CWA # 2157

Global Politics Team

The G7 Summit 2026

TWTW Note

June 2026 | CWA # 2156

Avaneesh S

President Xi Jinping's North Korea visit:

TWTW Note

June 2026 | CWA # 2155

Aparna A Nair

Myanmar President's China visit:

Diplomatic legitimacy, Economic cooperation and Beijing's interests

TWTW Takeaways

June 2026 | CWA # 2154

Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella

The G7 Summit 2026

Four Takeaways on Economic security, Critical minerals, and Consensus on Ukraine and Iran

Conflict Weekly

June 2026 | CWA # 2153

Global Politics Team

The US-Iran MoU

The War in Ukraine I Anti-immigrant violence in South Africa I Ultra Orthodox Jews' protests in Israel

CW Note

June 2026 | CWA # 2152

Akshath Kaimal

Anti-immigrant violence in South Africa:

Xenophobic attacks, Economic distress, and an Aggressive crackdown

CW Note

June 2026 | CWA # 2151

Rohini Reenum

Israel's Ultra-Orthodox Jews:

Why are they protesting?

CW Note

June 2026 | CWA # 2150

Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella

The War in Ukraine:

Massive drone attacks, Europe's support for Ukraine, and a Distant ceasefire

CW Note

June 2026 | CWA # 2149

Brighty Ann Sarah

The US-Iran MoU:

Asymmetric Gains and Implementation Challenges

Remembering Amb PS Raghavan and his legacy

June 2026 | CWA # 2148

Akshath Kaimal

The Making of India's Foreign Policy:

Major pillars and their critiques

Remembering Amb PS Raghavan and his legacy

June 2026 | CWA # 2147

Lekshmi MK

India as a Net Security Provider in the Indian Ocean Region:

A Critique of Raghavan's Maritime Security and Emerging Constraints

Global Politics Review: WPF Report 2026

June 2026 | CWA # 2146

Global Politics Team

Press Freedom in the Indian Neighbourhood

From Afghanistan to Myanmar

Global Politics Review: WPF Report 2026

June 2026 | CWA # 2145

Glynnis Winona B

Myanmar and Press Freedom:

Global Politics Review: WPF Report 2026

June 2026 | CWA # 2144

Nithin V

Bangladesh and Press Freedom:

Global Politics Review: WPF Report 2026

June 2026 | CWA # 2143

Aishal Hab Yousuf

Sri Lanka and Press Freedom:

Five Takeaways on Political influence, Legal mechanisms to control, Ethnic sensitivities and History of State intimidation

Global Politics Review: WPF Report 2026

June 2026 | CWA # 2142

Glynnis Winona B

Bhutan and Press Freedom:

Four takeaways on Regulatory control, Economic fragility, and Social constraints

Global Politics Review: WPF Report 2026

June 2026 | CWA # 2141

Aishal Hab Yousuf

Maldives and Press Freedom:

Four takeaways on the influence of democracy, legislation, and state funding

Global Politics Review: WPF Report 2026

June 2026 | CWA # 2140

Nithin V

Pakistan and Press Freedom:

Four takeaways Military influence, cyber laws, political instability, and youth-driven digital journalism

Global Politics Review: WPF Report 2026

June 2026 | CWA # 2139

Siddhi Halyur

Afghanistan and Press Freedom:

Global Politics Review: WPF Report 2026

June 2026 | CWA # 2138

Siddhi Halyur

Nepal and Press Freedom:

Three takeaways on Political constraints, Missing legal protection and Funding issues

The World This Week

June 2026 | CWA # 2137

NIAS Global Politics Team

Shangri-La Dialogue 2026: Major Statements and Takeaways

The Blue Origin Rocket Explosion

TWTW Explainer

June 2026 | CWA # 2136

Acsah H

The Blue Origin Rocket Explosion:

TWTW Note

June 2026 | CWA # 2135

Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella

Shangri-La Dialogue 2026:

Who said what

TWTW Note

June 2026 | CWA # 2134

Aishal Hab Yousuf

Shangri-La Dialogue 2026: Four Major Takeaways

Focus on Rules-based maritime order, AI & Cyber Security, and Preventive Diplomacy, but with no consensus

Conflict Weekly

June 2026 | CWA # 2133

NIAS Global Politics Team

Israel-Lebanon Tensions and a New Deal I The US-Iran War, Week Fourteen

Conflicts in Africa I The UK-Rwanda Asylum Deal

CW Note

June 2026 | CWA # 2132

Brighty Ann Sarah

The US-Iran War, Week Fourteen:

Intensifying Domestic Pressure and the Lebanon Question

CW Note

June 2026 | CWA # 2131

Rohini Reenum

Israel-Lebanon Tensions:

CW Explainer

June 2026 | CWA # 2130

Akshath Kaimal

The UK-Rwanda Asylum Deal:

CW Column

June 2026 | CWA # 2129

Anu Maria Joseph

Conflicts in Africa This Week:

The Ebola fear in DR Congo and the Elections in Ethiopia amidst conflicts

The World This Week

May 2026 | CWA # 2128

NIAS Global Politics Team

TWTW Note

May 2026 | CWA # 2127

Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella

The Quad Foreign Ministers' Meeting 2026:

Prioritizing Critical minerals, Supply chain resilience, and Maritime surveillance

TWTW Note

May 2026 | CWA # 2126

Aparna A Nair

The Shenzhou-23 Mission:

China's Space Missions, Technology, and Infrastructure

Conflict Weekly

May 2026 | CWA # 2125

NIAS Global Politics Team

Israel-Lebanon Tensions I Crisis in Cuba I Ebola Outbreak in Africa

Weekly Columns on Africa and the Middle East

CW Note

May 2026 | CWA # 2124

Glynnis Winona B

The Crisis in Cuba:

The US Sanctions, Energy Crisis, and Economic Instability

CW Note

May 2026 | CWA # 2123

Akshath Kaimal

The Ebola and the DR Congo:

Multiple Outbreaks, Fragile Healthcare System, and Ineffective Global Responses

CW Column

May 2026 | CWA # 2122

Radhika M Agarwal

The War in Ukraine:

Ballistic missiles, Nuclear drills with Belarus, and the Czech ammunition initiative

CW Note

May 2026 | CWA # 2121

Deb Dutta

Israel, Lebanon, Hezbollah, and the Border Tensions:

Collapse of the Ceasefire, Ineffective Beirut, and Aggressive Tel Aviv

CW Column

May 2026 | CWA # 2120

Brighty Ann Sarah

Conflicts in the Middle East

The US-Iran War Week Thirteen: Escalating Hostilities, Tenuous Ceasefire and Tense Negotiations

CW Column

May 2026 | CWA # 2119

Anu Maria Joseph

Conflicts in Africa

The Ebola spread in DR Congo, The Faye-Sonko split in Senegal, and the Deepening US military involvement in Nigeria

The World This Week

May 2026 | CWA # 2118

Global Politics Team

The Putin-Xi Summit, PM Modi's UAE Visit, and the India-Nordic Summit

TWTW Note

May 2026 | CWA # 2117

Lekshmi MK

Arctic cooperation, Climate diplomacy, and Trade diversification

CW Review

May 2026 | CWA # 2102

Glynnis Winona B

Weakening faith in institutions and Political polarization in Latin America and the Caribbean:

Six Takeaways from the UNDP Democracy and Development Report 2026

CW Note

May 2026 | CWA # 2101

Anu Maria Joseph

The New Wave of Violence in DR Congo:

Farmer-herder clashes, Armed groups, and Security vacuum

The US-Iran War

May 2026 | CWA # 2100

Aishal Hab Yousuf

The Hormuz Strait and the Fertilizer Crisis in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa

The US-Iran War

May 2026 | CWA # 2099

Kirsten Wilfred Coelho

Why is the UK reluctant to engage?

Remembering Amb PS Raghavan and his legacy

May 2026 | CWA # 2098

Sreemaya Nair

India, Russia and the imperative to strengthen the traditional relationship

Remembering Amb PS Raghavan and his legacy

May 2026 | CWA # 2097

Kirsten Wilfred Coelho

President Trump and the US-China Trade Tensions

Remembering Amb PS Raghavan and his legacy

May 2026 | CWA # 2095

Santhosh Guru PR

The Eurasian-Indo Pacific Congruence and its Critique

Remembering Amb PS Raghavan and his legacy

May 2026 | CWA # 2094

Rakshitha B

Transactional US foreign policy and it implications for India's Strategic Autonomy

Remembering Amb PS Raghavan and his legacy

May 2026 | CWA # 2093

Glynnis Winona B

The Russia-Ukraine War and the Rise of Parallel Strategic Systems: A Critique of Raghavan's Strategic Framework

Conflict Weekly

May 2026 | CWA # 2092

NIAS Global Politics Team

The US-Iran War, Week Ten

CW Column on Middle East: Escalating Israeli Aggression in Lebanon I UAE's Covert Manoeuvres

CW Column

May 2026 | CWA # 2091

Brighty Ann Sarah

Conflicts in the Middle East:

Escalating Israeli Aggression in Lebanon I UAEs Covert Manoeuvres

CW Note

May 2026 | CWA # 2090

Brighty Ann Sarah

The US-Iran War, Week Ten:

Fraying Ceasefire, Renewed Negotiations and the Risk of a Stalemate

The World This Week

May 2026 | CWA # 2089

Global Politics Team

US troop withdrawal from Germany I UAEs Exit from OPEC I Japan, Vietnam and PM Takaichis Visit

King Charles's US Visit

TWTW Takeaways

May 2026 | CWA # 2088

Nithin V

King Charles's US Visit:

Emphasis on strong bilateral relations, democratic values and security cooperation

TWTW Note

May 2026 | CWA # 2087

Siddhi Halyur

Japan, Vietnam and PM Takaichis Visit

Exploring Strategic Sectors of Cooperation

TWTW Note

May 2026 | CWA # 2086

Aishal Hab Yousuf

UAE's Exit from OPEC:

Implications for the Middle East and the Energy Market

TWTW Note

May 2026 | CWA # 2085

Glynnis Winona B

US troop withdrawal from Germany:

Growing US-Europe differences and Challenges for Berlin

Conflict Weekly

May 2026 | CWA # 2084

NIAS IPRI

The US-Iran War, Week Nine I Escalating Violence in Mali

Review: Five Takeaways of RSF's 2026 Report on Media Freedom

CW Note

May 2026 | CWA # 2083

Brighty Ann Sarah

The US-Iran War, Week Nine:

Deadlocked Negotiations, Competing Agendas and Domestic Pressure

CW Note

May 2026 | CWA # 2082

Akshath Kaimal

Escalating Violence in Mali:

Between Ethnic Insurgencies, Jihadist Attacks, and Military Coups

CW Review

May 2026 | CWA # 2081

Jenin Raj S

Media freedom hits a 25-year low:

Five Takeaways from the RSF 2026 Index

The World This Week

April 2026 | CWA # 2080

Global Politics Team

Nepals New National Commitment I Japans New Defence Posture

Four Takeaways of the WFP's report on the fallouts of the Middle East crisis

TWTW Note

April 2026 | CWA # 2079

Aishal Hab Yousuf

Japans New Defence Posture:

From Post-War Pacifism to Strategic Recalibration and Autonomy

TWTW Note

April 2026 | CWA # 2078

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal's New National Commitment

Managing Consensus and Moving ahead towards a New Nepal

TWTW Review

April 2026 | CWA # 2077

Nithin V

The Middle East Crisis and its Fallouts on Hunger and Global Food Supply Network

Four Takeaways of the WFP's report on the fallouts of the Middle East crisis, April 2026

CW Column: Africa This Week

April 2026 | CWA # 2076

Anu Maria Joseph

Three years of War in Sudan, DRC-M23 talks in Switzerland and the collapse of the peace agreement in Tigray

Report Review

April 2026 | CWA # 2075

Preetha Renganarayanan

The US-Iran War Fallouts on the Asia Pacific, Energy Security and Supply Chains

Five Takeaways of the UNDP Report, April 2026

CW Note

April 2026 | CWA # 2074

Brighty Ann Sarah

Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire:

Asymmetric Terms, Fragile Truce and Israeli Occupation

CW Note

April 2026 | CWA # 2073

Akshath Kaimal

The US-Iran War, Week Eight:

A Fragile Ceasefire, Attempts to Control Hormuz and the Stalled Talks in Islamabad

Special Commentary

April 2026 | CWA # 2072

Anu Maria Joseph

Three Years of War in Sudan

Prolonged Stalemate, Humanitarian Cost, External Interventions and Regional Fallouts

Conflict Weekly

April 2026 | CWA # 2071

NIAS Global Politics Team

Three Years of Civil War in Sudan I The US-Iran War, Week Eight I Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire

Review of the UNDP Report on Military Escalation in the Middle East I Conflict Weekly Column on Africa

Conflict Weekly Special Edition

April 2026 | CWA # 2070

NIAS Global Politics Team

Peace and Conflicts This Quarter (JanuaryMarch 2026)

The US-Iran War I Conflicts in Africa I The War in Ukraine I China-Japan Tensions I Pakistan-Afghanistan Clashes

Peace and Conflicts This Quarter (JanuaryMarch 2026)

April 2026 | CWA # 2069

Padmashree Anandhan

The War in Ukraine

Expanding Drone Warfare, Russia's Strategic Patience and Ukraine's Diplomatic Outreach

Peace and Conflicts This Quarter (JanuaryMarch 2026)

April 2026 | CWA # 2068

Femy Francis�

China-Japan Tensions

Escalating Defence Posturing and Economic Decoupling

Peace and Conflicts This Quarter (JanuaryMarch 2026)

April 2026 | CWA # 2067

Anu Maria Joseph

Conflicts in Africa

Continuing Conflicts in Sudan, South Sudan and DR Congo, Security issues in Nigeria, and Political Instability in Madagascar

Peace and Conflicts This Quarter (JanuaryMarch 2026)

April 2026 | CWA # 2066

Akshath Kaimal

The Pakistan-Afghanistan Conflict

Recurrent Clashes, Defiant Taliban, Contesting Narratives and Emerging Chinas Role

The World This Quarter

April 2026 | CWA # 2065

Lakshmi Venugopal Menon

The Middle East (JanMar 2026):

The US-Iran War, Israel-Hamas Conflict and their interconnected fallouts

The World This Quarter

April 2026 | CWA # 2064

Anwesha Ghosh

Afghanistan (JanMar 2026):

Gender Repression, Leadership Rifts, Regional Realignments and Clashes with Pakistan

The World This Quarter

April 2026 | CWA # 2063

Ramya B

Russia (Jan-Mar 2026)

Assertive Military Posture, Attempts for an Economic Turnaround and Search for Partners

The World This Quarter

April 2026 | CWA # 2062

Himani Pant

Europe (Jan-Mar 2026)

Trade diversification & FTAs, Increased defence spending, Tightening irregular migration and Economic slowdown

The World This Quarter

April 2026 | CWA # 2061

S Shaji

Africa (Jan-Mar 2026)

Elections, Civil Wars, Militancy and Peace Initiatives

The World This Quarter

April 2026 | CWA # 2060

Nanda Kishor M S

India and the Neighbourhood (Jan-Mar 2026)

Continuity, Caution and Calculated assertiveness

April 2026 | CWA # 2051

TWTW Special Edition

TWTW Special Edition, 350th Issue

THE WORLD THIS QUARTER (Jan-Mar 2026)

Conflict Weekly

April 2026 | CWA # 2050

IPRI Team

The US-Iran War, Week Five: Widening Conflict, Houthi Involvement, and Trumps Renewed Threats

PR Commentary

March 2026 | CWA # 2043

Abhimanyu Solanki

Escalatory Airpower, Hybrid Retaliation, and Regional Security

Reassessing the PakistanAfghanistan Confrontation and Its Implications for India

March 2026 | CWA # 2042

Preetha Renganarayanan

Five Takeaways of the US Annual Threat Assessment (ATA) Report for 2026

March 2026 | CWA # 2041

Aparna A Nair

China-Vietnam 3+3 Strategic Dialogue

Defence, Diplomacy and Public Security

March 2026 | CWA # 2040

Femy Francis

China's Interests and Strategies in the US-Iran War

Why Beijings support for Iran is rhetoric and muted

March 2026 | CWA # 2039

Femy Francis

Trump-Xi Meeting

Why did Trump reschedule it? What does that mean?

March 2026 | CWA # 2038

Anu Maria Joseph

Sudan-Chad tensions and the Boko Haram attack in Nigeria's Maiduguri

March 2026 | CWA # 2037

Padmashree Anandhan

Massive drone attacks, Growing energy leverage and Drifting peace efforts

March 2026 | CWA # 2036

Brighty Ann Sarah

Continuing Israel-Hezbollah Confrontation

Expanding Israeli Military Operations and the Reshaping of Southern Lebanon

March 2026 | CWA # 2035

Akshath Kaimal

Five Takeaways of Human Rights Watch Report 2026

March 2026 | CWA # 2024

Lekshmi MK

The UN and the Iran-US War

UNSC Resolution 2817 between Clear and Unified Message and Manifest Injustice

March 2026 | CWA # 2023

Femy Francis

Chinas Two Sessions 2026

New Five-Year Plan, Ethnic Unity Law, and an Enhanced Defence Budget

March 2026 | CWA # 2022

Padmashree Anandhan

Continuing Strikes and Inconsistent Diplomatic Efforts

March 2026 | CWA # 2021

Anu Maria Joseph

Political instability in Madagascar and spreading violence in South Sudan

March 2026 | CWA # 2020

Brighty Ann Sarah

Continuing Israel-Hezbollah Confrontation

Attacks in South Lebanon, Beiruts Conundrum, and Tel Avivs Greater Goals

March 2026 | CWA # 2019

Akshath Kaimal

Rising Violence in Nigeria

Limited State Capacity, Multiple Actors, and a Complex Security Environment

March 2026 | CWA # 2018

Rohini Reenum

The US-Iran War, Week Two

Expanding Fronts, Shifting Goalposts, and Global Fallout

The World This Week

March 2026 | CWA # 2011

Tanvi Thara Harendra Jha

Canadas PM Mark Carneys India Visit

Resetting Economic, Strategic and Cultural Ties

Global Politics Early Bird

March 2026 | CWA # 2010

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal Elections 2026

The Rise of the New and the Fall of the Old

March 2026 | CWA # 2009

Sreemaya Nair

Nepal Elections 2026

Rise of a new leadership and Reset in political landscape

The World This Week

March 2026 | CWA # 2008

Global Politics Team

Canadian PM's India Visit I Nepal Elections and its Political Reset

March 2026 | CWA # 2007

Global Politics Team

The World Today #272, 06 March 2026

The World Today

Early Bird

March 2026 | CWA # 2006

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal Election 2026, Day One

Peaceful polling, with over 60 per cent turnout

March 2026 | CWA # 2005

Global Politics Team

The World Today #271, 05 March 2026

The World Today

March 2026 | CWA # 2004

Akshath Kaimal

The Forgotten South Sudan Conflict

Instability returns, with a fragile peace agreement, uptick in violence and limited international engagement

March 2026 | CWA # 2003

Yesasvi Koganti

PM Modis Visit to Israel

From bilateral ties to a special strategic partnership

March 2026 | CWA # 2002

Femy Francis

German Chancellors China Visit

Reducing trade deficit and recalibrating economic cooperation with Beijing

March 2026 | CWA # 2001

Preetha Renganarayanan

Six major takeaways on the economy, border and internal security and Iran

March 2026 | CWA # 2000

Rohini Reenum

The US-Iran War, Week One

Rapid Escalation, Regional Spillover, Global Uncertainty

Conflict Weekly

March 2026 | CWA # 1999

IPRI Team

The US-Iran War, Week One | The Return of Violence to South Sudan

Weekly Column on Ukraine & Africa

February 2026 | CWA # 1998

Anu Maria Joseph

Instability in Sudan

Response to the genocide call and the threats of a regional spillover

February 2026 | CWA # 1997

Padmashree Anandhan

Four Years of War in Ukraine

Continuing Uncertainty

February 2026 | CWA # 1996

Akshath Kaimal

Pakistan-Afghanistan Clashes

Another round of cross-border attacks

March 2026 | CWA # 1995

Global Politics Team

The World Today #269, 03 March 2026

The World Today

March 2026 | CWA # 1994

Global Politics Team

The World Today #268, 02 March 2026

The World Today

PR Commentary

March 2026 | CWA # 1993

D Suba Chandran

The US-Iran Conflict and Pakistan

Balancing Rhetoric, Regional Interests and Global Alignments

Conflict Weekly

February 2026 | CWA # 1992

IPRI Team

Pakistan-Afghanistan Clashes I Fours Years of Ukraine War

Weekly Column on Africa

March 2026 | CWA # 1991

Global Politics Team

Trumps State of the Union Address | German Chancellors China Visit | Indias PMs Israel Visit

February 2026 | CWA # 1990

Global Politics Team

The World Today #266, 27 February 2026

The World Today

Conflict Weekly

February 2026 | CWA # 1989

IPRI Team

Abu Dhabi Talks on Ukraine I Militant Attacks in Balochistan

CW Columns on Middle East and Africa

February 2026 | CWA # 1988

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine Peace talks in Abu Dhabi

Negotiations without a ceasefire or resolution

February 2026 | CWA # 1987

Akshath Kaimal

Continuing militant attacks in Balochistan

Expanding violence, Security-first response and Missing political dialogue in Pakistan

PR Commentary

November 2025 | CWA # 1966

Lekshmi MK

Pakistans Climate and Water Crisis

Five Questions on Challenges, Capacity and Policies

The World This Week

February 2026 | CWA # 1965

Global Politics Team

AI Impact Summit in New Delhi I Munich Security Conference 2026

Conflict Weekly

February 2026 | CWA # 1964

IPRI Team

US-Iran & Ukraine Negotiations in Geneva I US Military Deployment in Nigeria

CW Columns on Middle East and Africa

February 2026 | CWA # 1963

Global Politics Team

The World Today #255, 16 February 2026

Today in History

The World This Week

February 2026 | CWA # 1962

Global Politics Team

Japan: Sanae Takaichis historic win | Honk Kong: Jimmy Lai Sentenced

Regional Roundups: From East Asia to the Americas

Early Bird

February 2026 | CWA # 1961

Lekshmi MK

Sanae Takaichis historic win in Japan

What does it mean for domestic politics and regional stability?

Early Bird

February 2026 | CWA # 1960

Femy Francis

Jimmy Lai sentenced for 20 years in Hong Kong: Who, What, and Why

CEAP

February 2026 | CWA # 1959

Yesasvi Koganti

UK and China

PM Keir Starmers visit and the Recalibration of Economic, Strategic, and Domestic ties

February 2026 | CWA # 1958

Akshath Kaimal

India-EU Free Trade Agreement: Five Major Takeaways

The focus on expanded cooperation in defence, technology and critical minerals

February 2026 | CWA # 1957

Preetha Renganarayanan

The India-US interim trade framework

Tariff recalibration and Energy and Supply Chain realignment

February 2026 | CWA # 1956

Lekshmi MK

End of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START)

Erosion of arms control, Return of nuclear anxieties, and the New focus on China

The World This Week

February 2026 | CWA # 1955

Global Politics Team

End of the New START I IndiaUS interim Trade Framework I India-EU Free Trade Agreement I UK PM Keir Starmers China visit

Regional Roundups: From East Asia to the Americas

February 2026 | CWA # 1954

Nishchal Nath Pandey

Nepal Elections 2026: Political Parties, Gen Z Protests and Hope for a New Beginning

Conflict Weekly

February 2026 | CWA # 1953

IPRI Team

Abu Dhabi Talks on Ukraine I Militant Attacks in Balochistan

Weekly Columns: Conflicts in Africa and the Middle East

CW Column: Conflicts in the Middle East

January 2026 | CWA # 1952

Brighty Ann Sarah

US threats against Iran, and Phase Two operations in Gaza

CW Column: Conflicts in Africa

January 2026 | CWA # 1951

Anu Maria Joseph

Africa: Renewed violence in Ethiopia and a Jihadist attack in Niger

CW Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1950

Lekshmi MK

The War in Ukraine: The Trilateral Talks, and the Deadlock over Donetsk & Security Guarantees for Kyiv

CW Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1949

Preetha Renganarayanan

The United States: ICE Crackdowns, Rising Resistance and the Political/Legal pushback

Conflict Weekly

January 2026 | CWA # 1948

ICE Crackdowns and Resistance in the US I Trilateral Talks on Ukraine

TWTW Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1947

Brighty Ann Sarah

The Pentagons National Defence Strategy: Four major takeaways

TWTW Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1946

Preetha Renganarayanan

The Davos Summit 2026

Five Major Takeaways from The World Economic Forum

The World This Week

January 2026 | CWA # 1945

Global Politics Team

The Davos Forum 2026 Takeaways I The US Pentagons National Defence Strategy

CW Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1944

Brighty Ann Sarah

Syria: The State victory over the Syrian Democratic Forces

Conflict Weekly Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1943

Anu Maria Joseph

Another major kidnapping in Nigeria and Election announcement in Guinea-Bissau

CW Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1942

Lekshmi MK

Greenland: Trumps escalation-deescalation approach and Europes defence

CW Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1941

Brighty Ann Sarah

The War in Gaza: Trumps Board of Peace and the Challenges to Phase Two

Conflict Weekly

January 2026 | CWA # 1940

IPRI Team

Trumps Board of Peace in Gaza I Escalation/De-escalation in Greenland

TWTW Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1939

Lekshmi MK

Greenland: Trumps escalation-deescalation strategy and Europes defence

The World This Week

January 2026 | CWA # 1938

Continuing Tensions over Greenland

CW Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1937

Anu Maria Joseph

Instability in Nigeria: Intensifying domestic responses, and questions over Trumps intervention

CW Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1936

Brighty Ann Sarah

Protests in Iran: Continuing Stalemate and Shifting US Position

Conflict Weekly

January 2026 | CWA # 1935

IPRI Team

Protests in Iran | Instability in Nigeria

The World This Week

January 2026 | CWA # 1934

Global Politics Team

The US, Greenland and Trump's Claims

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IPRI Team

Protests in Iran, the US Military Intervention in Venezuela and Conflicts in Africa

NIAS Conflict Weekly | The World This Week

January 2026 | CWA # 1932

Global Politics Team