The new push in the Ukraine war, Ben Gvirâ€™s visit to al Aqsa, Mali's pardon to Ivorian soldiers, violent protests in Brazil and violence over Guzman's arrest

CWA # 892

Conflict Weekly

The new push in the Ukraine war, Ben Gvirâ€™s visit to al Aqsa, Mali's pardon to Ivorian soldiers, violent protests in Brazil and violence over Guzman's arrest

IPRI Team
12 January 2023

Photo Source: Mauricio Lima/The New York Times

Conflict Weekly #158, 12 January 2022, Vol.4, No.2

An initiative by NIAS-IPRI and India Office of the KAS

Padmashree Anandan, Mohaimeen Khan, Apoorva Sudhakar, Madhura Mahesh and Allen Joe Mathew

Ukraine: A new military push, worsening the situation
In the news
On 1 January, the Russian Defence Ministry claimed a strike on Ukraine’s unmanned aerial vehicles’ (UAV) industrial facility using a “high-precision long-range air-based armament,'' killing over 350 Ukrainians and destroying air-defence missile systems. Simultaneously, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy claimed to have taken down 45 Shahed drones, killing 400 Russians in a missile attack in Makiivka; however, Russia’s Armed Forces reported only 89 casualties.

On 4 January, French President Emmanuel Macron said France would provide “light AMX-10 RC armoured combat vehicles” to Ukraine. He said: “This is the first time that Western-made armoured vehicles are being delivered in support of the Ukrainian army.”

On 5 January, the White House and Germany released a joint statement on supplying more weapons: “The United States intends to supply Ukraine with Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, and Germany intends to provide Ukraine with Marder infantry fighting vehicles.”

On 5 January, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin said: “I am instructing the Minister of Defence of the Russian Federation to introduce a ceasefire along the entire line of combat engagement in Ukraine from 12:00 on January 6 until 24:00 on January 7 of this year.”

On 8 January, a Russian Defence Ministry spokesperson claimed that a “massive missile attack” in Kramatorsk had killed 600 Ukrainian soldiers. The spokesperson said: “In response to an illicit strike inflicted by Kiev’s regime on a temporary Russian military base in the settlement of Makeyevka…the command of the united group of Russian military forces conducted a retaliation operation.”

On 10 January, the Russian mercenary Wagner group claimed to be fighting the war to capture Soledar as part of the Russian offensive in Donetsk. The same was confirmed by the UK Ministry of Defence which stated: “Soledar…likely continues to be Russia’s main immediate operational objective.”

Issues at large
First, the intensification. The exchange of shelling between Russia and Ukraine, which was concentrated in Ukraine’s southern and north-eastern regions, has expanded further into the eastern Ukraine, centre of Donetsk. The Ukraine military has shifted from attacking the frontline to shelling the Russian occupied Donbass area (Makiivka, Soledar), due to the upgradation of its military capabilities through the West’s supply of long-range air defence systems and an equal push to the ground forces through tactical battle tanks. On the other hand, Russia has been challenged with logistical issues, weakened military, dependency on the Wagner Group and Iran’s drones. Despite that, it aims to establish a strategic military base to attack Ukraine’s infrastructure and bring Donetsk under its control.

Second, the battle for Soledar and the involvement of the Wagner group. The Russian Defence Ministry has not claimed the use of Shahed drones in the Kramatorsk attacks. However, the US and the UK intelligence have observed otherwise. Russia’s control in the Donbass seems to be gradually fragmenting, accompanied by a need to involve the Wagner Group. The new year attacks in Kramatorsk and quick advances of the mercenary group into Soledar prove Russia’s determination to strengthen its posture, keep its weapons available at the right place (Soledar salt mine), and encircle Donetsk. However, increasing military support to Ukraine and the timing of the ceasefire announcement will further complicate the war strategies. The use of foreign drones, the involvement of the mercenary group, and the lag in striking back provide a glimpse into the growing vulnerability of the Russian military.

Third, strengthening air-defence systems and advancing ground mobility. The West’s support to Ukraine has slowly improved since September, from giving air defence missile systems, drone technologies, and intense training. In November, the US and Germany denied Ukraine’s request for patriot missiles and advanced ground mobility vehicles to counter Russia’s firepower. This changed in January, with the US, France, and Germany agreeing to provide battle tanks. These infantry fighting vehicles provide ground troops the tactical mobility to launch attacks close to the enemy. The Bradley and Marder have been upgraded with chain guns making them more effective in battleground.

In perspective
First, advantage Ukraine. Despite its inability to position its military against Russia’s concurrent attacks on its energy grid, Ukraine’s military is steadfast on the frontline, recapturing lost territories. The Ukraine military’s main challenge ahead would be to counter Russia’s forces and push them further into the east of Donetsk.

Second, Russia’s continued carpet bombing. Russia’s targeted attacks on the energy infrastructure are expected to continue, along with surprise carpet bombing in particular zones to inflict severe damage. A future ceasefire can be expected through Turkey’s mediation, if Russia decides to use it as an opportunity to replenish its military stocks.

Third, new weapon systems to Ukraine. There are several reasons behind the West agreeing to upgrade its military support. The cost factor of the Patriot missiles compared to those used in the HIMARS could be one. Another reason could be the early prediction for Russian aggression coming to an end. The last concern could be the economic impact of heavy military spending. Although the increased military support helped Ukraine’s successful counteroffensive, it raised the bar to launch into the Russian-occupied territories. The West’s further upgrading to Patriot missiles and infantry vehicles means it is ready to stretch its military expenditure sheet.

Israel-Palestine: Itamar Ben Gvir’s controversial visit to al Aqsa
In the news
On 5 January, Palestinian UN ambassador Riyad Mansour urged the UNSC to take measures against Israel in response to Itamar Ben-Gvir’s visit to the al Aqsa mosque compound on 3 January, after which he tweeted: “The Temple Mount is open to all,” using the Jewish name for the location. Mansour addressed the UNSC: “What red line does Israel need to cross for the Security Council to finally say, enough is enough?” Meanwhile, Israel’s envoy to the UN criticised the UNSC meeting terming it “pathetic” and “absurd.”

On 6 January, the Israeli government approved several retaliatory measures for a Palestinian attempt to have the International Court of Justice issue a ruling on the long-standing occupation. The measures include a moratorium on Palestinian construction in the West Bank and the use of Palestinian funds to compensate the families of Israeli soldiers and settlers attacked by Palestinians. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said these actions were a “response to the Palestinian Authority’s decision to wage political and legal war against the State of Israel.” The Palestinian Authority's foreign ministry termed these measures a “flagrant violation” of Israel’s obligations as an occupying power and said it was part of the Israeli government’s “racist colonial programme” against Palestinians.

On 8 January, Israel revoked the travel permit, allowing Palestinian officials to travel in and out of the West Bank.

On 9 January, Ben-Gvir ordered the removal of Palestinian flags from public locations and justified his decision by stating that displaying the Palestinian flag was a sign of “terrorism.” The order came after anti-government demonstrations took place in Tel Aviv, where protesters waved the Palestinian flags.

Issues at large
First, the importance of Jerusalem for both. Israel claims Jerusalem as its capital, while Palestinians seek East Jerusalem as the capital of a future Palestinian state. In the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the holy compound located in East Jerusalem is a critical site. From 1948 till 1967, Israel was ruling West Jerusalem, and Jordan was ruling East Jerusalem, and the Old City’s important holy sites. In 1967, After a conflict with Jordan, Egypt, Syria, and other Arab states, Israel seized and annexed East Jerusalem. The international community does not recognise Israel’s sovereignty over it, and majority of the Old City’s residents are Palestinians. The Jerusalem Islamic Waqf, governed by Jordan, is in charge of the al-Aqsa mosque, the Dome of the Rock, and the Haram al-Sharif, the third holiest site in Islam. According to a 2014 agreement based on a long-standing understanding and mediated by the then US Secretary of State John Kerry, “Al-Aqsa is for Muslims to pray and for all others to visit.” The Jews refer to it as Temple Mount and it is the holiest site in Judaism. Jews and other non-Muslims are permitted to visit the site but are not permitted to worship; Palestinians regard Jewish visits as attempts to disrupt the status quo.

Second, the return of the far-right nationalist party. The ruling far-right coalition consists of religious parties, ultra-nationalist and ultra-orthodox parties, with the exception of Netanyahu’s Likud party. A two-state solution is not supported by any of the members of the far-right, nationalist coalition. Ben-Gvir, the head of the Jewish Power Party, sent a message with his visit as a National Security Minister that he intended to support extreme Zionist nationalism and religious Jewish fundamentalism that poses a threat to all prospects for peace.

In perspective
First, concerns regarding an uprising. Twenty years ago, the then-Israeli opposition minister visited al-Aqsa mosque which led to the Second Intifada. Ben-Gvir’s call for changing the status quo of the site is a major cause of concern as tensions could escalate. The Israeli government's policies are expected to negatively impact the West Bank and Gaza’s already precarious political, economic, and security situation.

Second, tensions in the region. The visit by Ben-Gvir provoked a wave of anger among the Muslim world, who harshly denounced the visit. The first official visit by Netanyahu to the UAE has been rescheduled for February. Hamas issued a statement warning that this behaviour will lead to a “big clash.” The rivalry is accelerated and potentially destabilises the Middle Eastern region. It may turn into a wider conflict if the Middle Eastern states attempt to get assistance from other state and non-state actors.

Ivory Coast: Mali releases 46 Ivorian soldiers after over five months
In the news
On 6 January, Mali’s president Assimi Goïta pardoned 49 Ivorian soldiers who had been arrested in July 2022 for allegedly being mercenaries. The military government’s spokesperson said Goïta’s pardon “demonstrates once again his commitment to peace, dialogue, pan-Africanism and the preservation of fraternal and secular relations with regional countries, in particular those between Mali and Ivory Coast.” The Mali government also thanked Togo’s President Faure Gnassingbe for “for his tireless efforts and constant commitment to dialogue and peace in the region”; the government criticised the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) chairman Umaro Sissoco Embalo for his “aggressive position” on the issue.

On 7 January, President Alassane Ouattara received the 46 soldiers at the airport in Abidjan. Ouattara said: “Now that this crisis is behind us, we can resume normal relations with the brother country of Mali.”

Issues at large
First, the 2022 crisis over Mali’s arrest of Ivorian soldiers. In July 2022, Mali detained 49 soldiers, including three women, on accusations of arriving in Bamako, from Ivory Coast, without permission and being mercenaries. Ivory Coast disputed Mali’s claim and said the soldiers were backing up a UN peacekeeping mission and that Bamako was aware of the same. However, the UN, too, observed “procedural dysfunctions” in the notification sent to Mali and held that “certain measures have not been followed.” In September 2022, Mali released the three women on humanitarian grounds. Meanwhile, the ECOWAS threatened Mali with sanctions if the military government failed to come up with a plan by 1 January to release the soldiers. In December, days before pardoning the soldiers, the Appeals Court of Bamako sentenced the 46 soldiers to 20 years in prison for reportedly undermining state security.

Second, the larger differences between Bamako and Abidjan. Mali maintains that Ivory Coast has been providing asylum to Malian political leaders that Bamako wants, including former president Ibrahim Keita’s son and other former ministers. When Ivory Coast was negotiating for the soldiers’ release, Goïta hinted at asking for the return of these leaders “as opposed to a one-way solution that consists of acceding to the Ivorian demands without any compensation for Mali.” These contentions are part of the larger strained relations between the two countries since August 2020 when Mali witnessed a military coup that overthrew Ibrahim Keita. Ivory Coast has been critical of the coup and the political developments in Mali over the last two years.

Third, Mali’s deteriorating regional and international relations. While Togo has been mediating between Mali and other countries, Mali’s relationship with its neighbours and the regional body ECOWAS has been rough since 2020. Besides Ivory Coast, France, Germany, and the UK, announced their withdrawal from the UN mission in Mali recently. Further, Mali and France terminated their relations after the latter, which was leading the counter-terrorism operations since 2013, claimed working with Bamako had become unfavourable. In July, Mali also expelled the UN mission spokesperson and suspended new rotations of the peacekeepers.

In perspective
First, Mali’s pardon to the soldier is a welcome move, however, it is unlikely to rekindle friendly relations with Ivory Coast or the rest of West Africa. With several countries announcing their withdrawal from the peacekeeping mission, Mali will be the hotspot for rising insecurity. Therefore, a lack of regional cooperation will only fuel the situation.

Second, Bamako has been defensive and unwilling to compromise on its decisions. This has resulted in Mali’s isolation within West Africa and also from the rest of the world, except from a few powers like Russia.

Brazil: Bolsonaro supporters storm the democratic institutions
In the news
On 8 January, loyalists of former President Jair Bolsonaro stormed Brazil’s Congress, Supreme Court and the Presidential Palace. Around 3,000 the protesters vandalized buildings and property. The floor of the Congress building was flooded after the sprinkler system got activated due to the protesters setting the carpet on fire. They looted the building, simultaneously posting videos online recording their actions. The three-hour long attack ended when the police and the military took control. Six hours after the attack, Bolsonaro issued a statement on Twitter saying “...depredations and invasions of public buildings as occurred today, as well as those practised by the left in 2013 and 2017, escape the rule.”

On 9 January, Brazilian Justice Minister Flavio Dino said 1500 people had been detained, 300 of whom have been arrested and will be tried in court. The Supreme Court suspended Brasilia’s Governor Ibaneis Rocha for gross failure in maintaining security.

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres tweeted: “I condemn the assault on Brazil’s democratic institutions that took place today. The will of the Brazilian people and democratic institutions must be respected.” US President Joe Biden tweeted: “I condemn the assault on democracy and on the peaceful transfer of power in Brazil. Brazil’s democratic institutions have our full support and the will of the Brazilian people must not be undermined.” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said, “The violent attacks on democratic institutions are an attack on democracy that cannot be tolerated.”

President Lula said: “He (Bolsonaro) spurred attacks on the three powers whenever he could. This is also his responsibility. There is no precedent for what these people have done, and for that, these people must be punished.” He ordered federal law in Brasilia until 31 January.

The Brazilian Supreme Court issued an order directing social media platforms to block users from spreading anti-democratic propaganda. Meta, YouTube, and Telegram announced they will remove all content promoting anti-democratic activities in Brazil. This includes videos of the attack and those praising the violent demonstrators. Meta “designated Brazil as a temporary high-risk location” and are removing any such content. YouTube and Telegram issued similar statements saying they are removing violent content from their respective platforms.

Issues at large
First, Bolsonaro’s polarizing campaign and subsequent actions. At the start of campaigning for Brazil’s national elections, Jair Bolsonaro had begun speaking about the electoral system being compromised. He sought to undermine people's faith and trust in the electoral process. He sought to divert attention from the failures of his government to fight COVID-19. His speeches were geared towards raking up religious and social issues, such as LGBTQA+ and women’s rights. Bolsonaro’s actions all led to the polarization of Brazilian society on political lines. When the election results were declared on 30 October 2022, Bolsonaro maintained silence and did not issue any statement about his loss. This added to the conspiracy theories and fake news being spread on social media. Bolsonaro flew to Florida before his term ended and did not attend the inauguration on 1 January, breaking the tradition of handing over the baton to the new president. Finally, on 8 January, this culminated in the violence at Three Powers Square.

Second, Lula’s unifying campaign. President Lula and his party, on the other hand, focused on Lula’s past record in governance and the bread-and-butter issues being faced by people. He also promised to stop the destruction of the Amazon, which had increased during the Bolsonaro years. He made coalitions with various other groups and reached out to unite as many people as possible. This gave people hope as they saw in him, a hope for a renewed Brazil.

In perspective
First, the attack on Brazil’s institutions and the preceding violence comes as the first challenge in Lula’s presidency. He has handled it well and managed to not let Brazil’s democratic institutions fall into the hands of the rioters. Brazil’s military establishment, too stood faithfully behind the elected government and did not respond to the calls for a coup by Bolsonaro’s supporters. Going ahead, Lula’s biggest challenge is to govern over a fractured Brazil, where politics has seeped into the everyday lives of people. He has taken the right decision to take stringent action against the protesters and the former president himself.

Second, the question over Bolsonaro’s return. Bolsonaro needs to be brought back and be made answerable for his crimes. He is the sole person responsible for creating such a vicious environment that culminated in the attack on three pillars of Brazil’s democratic institutions. This was an act against democratic values and democracy itself, which thankfully has been thwarted by Lula’s careful management of the situation.

Mexico: Violence in Culiacan triggered by the arrest of cartel leader
In the news
On 5 January, security forces captured drug cartel leader Ovidio Guzman in Culiacan, Sinaloa and transferred him to the Altiplano prison. The arrest triggered violence in Culiacan, killing 29 people, 19 cartels members and 10 military personnel. The cartel members reportedly set fire to 250 cars used to block roads and tried to take over the city’s airport where a civilian plane was caught in the crossfire; causalities were reported.

On 6 January, Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador praised the military’s success in capturing Guzman and added: “That the presence of elements of the Ministry of Defence, the National Guard, the state police, that is collaborating, will be maintained, and that this protection will be maintained so that there is no damage to the civilian population throughout Sinaloa.”

On 8 January, AP News called the operation a “display of muscle” ahead of US President Joe Biden’s visit to Mexico. It also quoted Mexican security analyst Alejandro Hope who said that the arrest was mostly due to pressure from the US. Obrador denied these claims saying: “There is cooperation, and there will continue to be, but the decisions are made as a sovereign, independent government, and these decisions are made in the Security Cabinet.

Issues at large
First, the drug cartels and violence. Guzman, the son of Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman, belongs to the Sinaloa cartel, one of the most powerful cartels in the world. In 2019, when Guzman was first arrested, the cartel members opened fire using machine guns and burned buses and cars in Culiacan, killing many civilians. This has also been the case whenever a cartel leader is arrested across Mexico. Cartels in Mexico control large territories which form their sphere of influence and base of operation. These cartels have developed good relations with local politicians and security personnel to prevent any investigation and a potential suspension of their activities.

Second, the government response to cartel violence. When Obrador came to power in 2018, he promised to restructure Mexico’s response to drug cartels and cartel violence. He has been critical of prior governments and the use of heavy military assault on drugs which started the turf war in Mexico. Obrador’s government has followed a “do not fight fire with fire” policy and focused on addressing the root causes of such violence and homicide. One of Obrador’s strategies was decriminalising certain drugs such as marijuana to prevent illegal cultivation and sale by cartels in Mexico. This strategy largely failed as Obrador has not been able to tackle drug cartels and Mexico has seen an increase in gang-related violence in recent years. Obrador has also been accused of going soft on cartels due to his frequent visit to Sinaloa and his close interactions with some of the cartel leader’s family.

Third, the role of the US. In 2019, a Manhattan district court sentenced El Chapo to a lifetime for abetting in the opioid crisis that led to the deaths of thousands. The US and Mexican authorities have always collaborated in the arrest of cartel leaders and drug and arms traffickers. In 2021, the two countries signed a new Bicentennial Framework for Security, Public Health and Safe Communities which outlined a new holistic approach to deal with drug trafficking and violence. This was largely unsuccessful due to the lack of bilateral discussions and funds and the US’s kingpin approach to dealing with cartels. The US has always extradited cartel leaders hoping to curtail cartel operations, but the arrest of cartel leaders has always led to an increase in violence and operations.

In perspective
First, a win for the Obrador administration. After the release of Guzman in 2019, Obrador faced a lot of backlash from the military and the public. With the arrest of Guzman, Obrador gained back the support of the military. The timing of the arrest coincided with the North American leader’s summit where illegal drug trafficking will be one of the issues discussed.

Second, no change in the structure and function of the Sinaloa Cartel. When El Chapo was arrested and sentenced to prison there was no change seen in the functioning of the cartel. The US authorities noted an increase in the number of drugs trafficked. Hence Guzman's arrest will not lead to any significant change in the cartel’s operations.

Also, from around the World
Avishka Ashok, Abigail Fernadez, Rashmi Ramesh, Apoorva Sudhakar, Anu Maria Joseph, Madura Mahesh and Padmashree Anandan

East and Southeast Asia
China: Workers protests against unfair removal and delay in salary payments
On 8 January, The Strait Times reported that workers at the Zybio COVID-19 test kit factory protested against the company for not paying the salaries. There were allegations that the company had fired workers who were recruited in the last few weeks. The AFP however could not clarify the location and the timing of the videos. The videos showed brown-and-white buildings which matched the company's facility in Dadukou District Jianqiao Industrial Park.

Taiwan: China conducts military and combat drills around the island
On 9 January, Taiwan's Defense Ministry condemned China for conducting military combat drills and reported that 57 aircrafts had trespassed into the country's Air Defense Identification Zone. The Eastern Theatre Command of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) announced that it conducted joint combat readiness patrols and combat drills in the sea and the airspace around the Island. The PLA statement said: "The aim was to test joint combat capabilities and resolutely counter the provocative actions of external forces and Taiwan independence separatist forces." China's Taiwan Affairs Office also referred to the drills and said that it was a warning against Taiwan's collusion with the US. The office also claimed that there was an increase in the military collusion between Taiwan and the US.

Taiwan: US cuts back on its naval trips in the Straits and the South China Sea in 2022
On 7 January, The Strait Times cited Bloomberg and reported that the US had sailed nine warships through the Taiwan Strait in 2022. The number of naval transits were the lowest in four years, despite China's increased military activities around the island. The latest sail was conducted on 5 January when the US 7th Fleet sent a destroyer, angering the Chinese government. Other than the sails, the US Navy conducted four "freedom-of-navigation operations" in the South China Sea in 2022, marking the least number of trips in six years.

Taiwan: Air Force official returns after a six-month academic exchange with NATO
On 11 January, Taiwan's Air Force Officer Lieutenant-Colonel Wu Bong-yeng revealed details of a rare interaction with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and his six-month long academic programme with senior officials in Italy. The Taiwanese military does not have many cooperative exercises with foreign militaries, other than the US military. However, the development comes after NATO released its strategic concept in June 2022 where it described China to be a challenge to its interests, security and values. Bong-yeng clarified that the exchange was academic in nature and not militaristic.

Philippines: At least 11 people died in heavy rain and landslide
On 10 January, at least 11 people died in the heavy rains, landslides, and serious flooding across the Philippines. Heavy rain and landslides in disaster-prone areas are expected to continue. The bad weather conditions have been wrecking central and southern islands since December and continue to cause havoc.

Philippines: China and Vietnam seek legal advice over baring of oil and gas exploration in the Philippines
On 10 January, the Supreme Court ruled that the 2005 deal for oil and gas exploration in the South China Sea by the Philippines, China and Vietnam is illegal which altogether bars foreign firms from exploring natural resources. The ruling makes the exploration of the non-disputed area complicated, 14 years after an appeal was lodged. In 2019, countries continued exploration after the disagreement with the 2016 ruling. Both China and Vietnam are set to file an appeal against the ruling and are seeking legal guidelines for the same.

Japan: Marine Littoral Regiment in Okinawa
On 9 January, diplomatic sources from US and Japan informed that a Marine Littoral Regiment (MLR) would be established in Okinawa by 2026, equipping the islands with long-range anti-ship missiles, air-defense bases, and radar stations. The decision was taken after increasing Chinese activity in the East China Sea, especially near southwest Japan; being in close proximity to Taiwan, makes the establishment of this Regime strategically important as well. Setting up the MLR could help both countries better train and cooperate, while the risk of triggering a Chinese military response cannot be ignored either. Anti-base movements and hostilities against American military bases have been going on since the 1950's. Therefore, this announcement would not appeal to the locals and would risk another conflict between Japanese locals and American marines on the island.

Australia: “One in Century” flood
On 9 January, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese visited Kimberley which is still experiencing the ‘one-in-100-year’ flood. The flood came as a result of heavy rains that followed cyclone Ellie. This caused major damage to infrastructure, including the breakage of the Fitzroy River Bridge, which delayed the supply of essential products. The Australian Defense Force helped airlift food and medicine in West Australia. They also evacuated over 100 residents in Fitzroy Crossing, one of the worst affected areas. So far, 280 people have been displaced, 175 of whom have remained in evacuation centres. Complaints against the evacuation centres not being well-equipped are also coming in. Albanese in his recent visit has promised to grant ASD 10,000 for the redevelopment of the flood-affected areas, though utilization of that fund is yet to be seen.

South Asia
Pakistan: One person killed in stampede amid flour crisis
On 7 January, one labourer was killed in a stampede after hundred people stormed trucks carrying wheat flour that arrived at Gulistan-i-Baldia Park, in Mirpurkhas, Sindh. The flour crisis in Pakistan has spiralled out of control in recent weeks in all four provinces as the price of wheat flour rose to Rs 1500 per kg. However, the problem has been looming in the country for several months as concerns were raised since the last domestic wheat harvest fell far short of expectations and the domestic consumption requirements. The situation was worsened by the floods that caused massive damage to the wheat stocks in several regions.

Afghanistan: Clerics and humanitarian agencies call girls’ access to education and work
On 10 January, a delegation of Muslim clerics during their visit to Kabul called on the Taliban to ensure the right to education for every Muslim, particularly the need for girls’ access to education in Afghanistan. Following the meeting, the head of the delegation said: “Education is necessary, therefore we call on the Islamic Emirate to pave the ground for the education of women as soon as possible.” Similarly, on 9 January, the Secretary General of the Norwegian Refugees Council, Jan Egeland during his visit to Kabul said that without female staff, they cannot work and will not work in Afghanistan. He said: “I am here in Afghanistan to meet Taliban leaders and try to find a way to get out of the current ban on our female workers, which is paralysing all our humanitarian work in Afghanistan.” Meanwhile, on 7 January, the UN deputy special envoy for Afghanistan, Markus Potzel in a meeting with the Acting Minister of Higher Education, Neda Mohammad Nadim, called for the “urgent lifting of the bans” on women's education and jobs in non-governmental organizations.

Central Asia, Middle East, and Africa
Armenia: Authorities arrest anti-Russian protesters in the city of Gyumri
On 8 January, Armenia police arrested over 60 people near Russia’s 102nd Military Base in Armenia’s second-largest city, Gyumri. The protesters demanded that the government cut ties with Moscow as the standoff with Azerbaijan worsened over Nagorno-Karabakh and claimed that the Russian peacekeeping forces were colluding with Azerbaijan and Turkey to keep the Lachin Corridor which is the only road linking the region with Armenia blocked. They also called for Armenia’s withdrawal from the Collective Security Treaty Organization. The protest was organised by the National-Democratic Axis, a bloc of opposition groups claiming to be a pro-Western political force in Armenia.

Iran: UN Rights Chief statement on executions
On 10 January, Volker Turk, the UN Human Rights Chief said that the death sentences issued in Iran amount to “state-sanctioned killing”, and is creating fear among the population and erasing the space for dissent. He also said that “the weaponization of criminal procedures to punish people for exercising their basic rights- such as those participating in or organizing demonstrations” is unacceptable. On 7 January, Iran hanged two more men for allegedly being involved in the killing of a member of security forces during the course of the protests.

Syria: UNSC extends critical aid to Syria
On 10 January, the UN Security Council voted unanimously to extend a critical border crossing between Turkey and northern Syria to transfer aid to the rebel-held area. Syria opposes the aid flow, however, its close ally Russia voted in favour of the UNSC resolution. The UN Secretary-General said that the vote came at a juncture where the “humanitarian needs have reached the highest levels since the start of the conflict in 2011 with people in Syria grappling with a harsh winter and a cholera outbreak.”

Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for 56 per cent of under-five deaths, says UN report
On 10 January, Africanews reported that a latest report by United Nations Inter Agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation says that nearly five million children under the age five died in 2021 alongside 2.1 million aged between five and 24. The report also says at least 1.9 million stillborn births are estimated during the same period. Besides, sub-Saharan Africa accounted for 56 per cent of all under-five deaths. The report adds that nearly 59 million children and youth will die by 2030 and nearly 16 million will be lost to stillbirth if proper action is not taken to improve the health services.

Rwanda: Government clarifies on sending back refugees to DRC
On 10 January, a government spokesperson said Rwanda does not intend to expel refugees from the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The spokesperson said the media had misrepresented President Paul Kagame’s stance on the refugees from DRC and said Kagame only “addressed was the blatant hypocrisy in criticising Rwanda which simultaneously gets the blame for state failure in the DRC [DR Congo], and is then expected to accommodate those who seek refuge from the consequences of that failure.” The development comes a day after Kagame told the Senate on 9 January that Rwanda cannot continue accommodating refugees for which Kigali is later “held accountable in some way, or even insulted and abused about.”

Sudan: UN launches second phase of negotiations
On 9 January, BBC reported that the UN mission in Sudan launched a second phase of negotiations between military and civilian groups on 8 January. The United Nations Integrated Transition Assistance Mission in Sudan (Unitams) said the four-day conference will discuss five major issues in the political framework of the agreement. Civilian and military leaders, civil society groups, academics, private sector representatives and religious leaders are attending the conference.

Nigeria: Six rescued after kidnappers abduct over 30 from train station
On 10 January, security forces rescued six people after 32 people were abducted from a train station in Edo state on 7 January. The rescued include women and children. The federal government termed the incident “despicable and utterly barbaric.”

Europe and the Americas
NATO and the EU sign the third joint declaration
On 10 January, NATO’s Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, and the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen signed the third joint declaration. The aim of the declaration is to boost the “strategic partnership” between the EU and NATO, keeping the 2016 and 2018 declarations as base. According to Stoltenberg: “Recognises the value of a more capable European defence that contributes positively to our security and is complementary to, and interoperable with, NATO.” The discussion focused on addressing the “geostrategic competition, resilience issues, and the protection of critical infrastructures,” along with priorities on space and disruptive technologies.

Peru: Inquiry opened into the government over the handling of protests
On 10 January, Peru’s attorney general’s office announced that it had opened an inquiry into President Dina Boluarte and her cabinet members over the handling of the anti-governmental protests. This comes as 17 people were killed and 68 people were injured in Juliaca, Puno, on 9 January in an anti-government protest. Prime Minister Alberto Otarola announced an overnight curfew in Puno after the protestors cleared the streets.

Peru: Government bans Bolivian actors for alleged involvement in anti-government protest
On 9 January, Peru’s Interior Ministry banned former President Evo Morales and eight other Bolivians for inciting protestors in Puno. This comes as protests intensify in the southern region of Peru. Following the announcement, Morales said: “Now they attack us to distract and dodge responsibility for grave violations of the human rights of our Peruvian brothers.”

Peru: Inquiry opened into the government over the handling of protests
On 10 January, Peru’s attorney general’s office announced that it had opened an inquiry into President Dina Boluarte and her cabinet members over the handling of the anti-governmental protests. This comes as 17 people were killed and 68 people were injured in Juliaca, Puno on 9 January in an anti-government protest. Prime Minister Alberto Otarola announced an overnight curfew in Puno after the protestors cleared the streets.

The US: Storm and rainfall inundate California with flash floods
On 9 January, about 90 per cent of California's population was under water due to widespread rains and a ‘bomb cyclone’ which has been developing around the west coast over the past week. The storms are called “atmospheric rivers” because they are essentially a conveyor belt of concentrated moisture in the atmosphere emerging from the warm waters of the Pacific Ocean. A similar storm unleashed rains, deadly floods, debris flows and hurricane-force winds, particularly in Northern California including the Bay Area, over the weekend. The California state is bracing itself for mudslides and power outages in the upcoming week. Earlier this year, the state witnessed extreme drought and that reduced the absorption capacity of the sand in the state which has aggravated the impact of flash floods.

The US-Iran War

May 2026 | CWA # 2099

Kirsten Wilfred Coelho

Why is the UK reluctant to engage?

Remembering Amb PS Raghavan and his legacy

May 2026 | CWA # 2098

Sreemaya Nair

India, Russia and the imperative to strengthen the traditional relationship

Remembering Amb PS Raghavan and his legacy

May 2026 | CWA # 2097

Kirsten Wilfred Coelho

President Trump and the US-China Trade Tensions

Remembering Amb PS Raghavan and his legacy

May 2026 | CWA # 2095

Santhosh Guru PR

The Eurasian-Indo Pacific Congruence and its Critique

Remembering Amb PS Raghavan and his legacy

May 2026 | CWA # 2094

Rakshitha B

Transactional US foreign policy and it implications for India's Strategic Autonomy

Remembering Amb PS Raghavan and his legacy

May 2026 | CWA # 2093

Glynnis Winona B

The Russia-Ukraine War and the Rise of Parallel Strategic Systems: A Critique of Raghavan's Strategic Framework

Conflict Weekly

May 2026 | CWA # 2092

NIAS Global Politics Team

The US-Iran War, Week Ten

CW Column on Middle East: Escalating Israeli Aggression in Lebanon I UAE's Covert Manoeuvres

CW Column

May 2026 | CWA # 2091

Brighty Ann Sarah

Conflicts in the Middle East:

Escalating Israeli Aggression in Lebanon I UAE’s Covert Manoeuvres

CW Note

May 2026 | CWA # 2090

Brighty Ann Sarah

The US-Iran War, Week Ten:

Fraying Ceasefire, Renewed Negotiations and the Risk of a Stalemate

The World This Week

May 2026 | CWA # 2089

Global Politics Team

US troop withdrawal from Germany I UAE’s Exit from OPEC I Japan, Vietnam and PM Takaichi’s Visit

King Charles's US Visit

TWTW Takeaways

May 2026 | CWA # 2088

Nithin V

King Charles's US Visit:

Emphasis on strong bilateral relations, democratic values and security cooperation

TWTW Note

May 2026 | CWA # 2087

Siddhi Halyur

Japan, Vietnam and PM Takaichi’s Visit

Exploring Strategic Sectors of Cooperation

TWTW Note

May 2026 | CWA # 2086

Aishal Hab Yousuf

UAE’s Exit from OPEC:

Implications for the Middle East and the Energy Market

TWTW Note

May 2026 | CWA # 2085

Glynnis Winona B

US troop withdrawal from Germany:

Growing US-Europe differences and Challenges for Berlin

Conflict Weekly

May 2026 | CWA # 2084

NIAS IPRI

The US-Iran War, Week Nine I Escalating Violence in Mali

Review: Five Takeaways of RSF's 2026 Report on Media Freedom

CW Note

May 2026 | CWA # 2083

Brighty Ann Sarah

The US-Iran War, Week Nine:

Deadlocked Negotiations, Competing Agendas and Domestic Pressure

CW Note

May 2026 | CWA # 2082

Akshath Kaimal

Escalating Violence in Mali:

Between Ethnic Insurgencies, Jihadist Attacks, and Military Coups

CW Review

May 2026 | CWA # 2081

Jenin Raj S

Media freedom hits a 25-year low:

Five Takeaways from the RSF 2026 Index

The World This Week

April 2026 | CWA # 2080

Global Politics Team

Nepal’s New “National Commitment” I Japan’s New Defence Posture

Four Takeaways of the WFP's report on the fallouts of the Middle East crisis

TWTW Note

April 2026 | CWA # 2079

Aishal Hab Yousuf

Japan’s New Defence Posture:

From Post-War Pacifism to Strategic Recalibration and Autonomy

TWTW Note

April 2026 | CWA # 2078

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal’s New “National Commitment”

Managing Consensus and Moving ahead towards a New Nepal

TWTW Review

April 2026 | CWA # 2077

Nithin V

The Middle East Crisis and its Fallouts on Hunger and Global Food Supply Network

Four Takeaways of the WFP's report on the fallouts of the Middle East crisis, April 2026

April 2026 | CWA # 2050

IPRI Team

The US-Iran War, Week Five: Widening Conflict, Houthi Involvement, and Trump’s Renewed Threats

PR Commentary

March 2026 | CWA # 2043

Abhimanyu Solanki

Escalatory Airpower, Hybrid Retaliation, and Regional Security

Reassessing the Pakistan–Afghanistan Confrontation and Its Implications for India

March 2026 | CWA # 2042

R Preetha

Transnational organized crime, Emerging technologies, Global security environment and ‘Diverse threat vectors’

Five Takeaways of the US Annual Threat Assessment (ATA) Report for 2026

March 2026 | CWA # 2041

Aparna A Nair

China-Vietnam 3+3 Strategic Dialogue

Defence, Diplomacy and Public Security

March 2026 | CWA # 2040

Femy Francis

China's Interests and Strategies in the US-Iran War

Why Beijing’s support for Iran is rhetoric and muted

March 2026 | CWA # 2039

Femy Francis

Trump-Xi Meeting

Why did Trump reschedule it? What does that mean?

March 2026 | CWA # 2038

Anu Maria Joseph

Sudan-Chad tensions and the Boko Haram attack in Nigeria's Maiduguri

March 2026 | CWA # 2037

Padmashree Anandhan

Massive drone attacks, Growing energy leverage and Drifting peace efforts

March 2026 | CWA # 2036

Brighty Ann Sarah

Continuing Israel-Hezbollah Confrontation

Expanding Israeli Military Operations and the Reshaping of Southern Lebanon

March 2026 | CWA # 2035

Akshath Kaimal

Five Takeaways of Human Rights Watch Report 2026

March 2026 | CWA # 2024

Lekshmi MK

The UN and the Iran-US War

UNSC Resolution 2817 between “Clear and Unified Message” and “Manifest Injustice”

March 2026 | CWA # 2023

Femy Francis

China’s Two Sessions 2026

New Five-Year Plan, Ethnic Unity Law, and an Enhanced Defence Budget

March 2026 | CWA # 2022

Padmashree Anandhan

Continuing Strikes and Inconsistent Diplomatic Efforts

March 2026 | CWA # 2021

Anu Maria Joseph

Political instability in Madagascar and spreading violence in South Sudan

March 2026 | CWA # 2020

Brighty Ann Sarah

Continuing Israel-Hezbollah Confrontation

Attacks in South Lebanon, Beirut’s Conundrum, and Tel Aviv’s Greater Goals

March 2026 | CWA # 2019

Akshath Kaimal

Rising Violence in Nigeria

Limited State Capacity, Multiple Actors, and a Complex Security Environment

March 2026 | CWA # 2018

Rohini Reenum

The US-Iran War, Week Two

Expanding Fronts, Shifting Goalposts, and Global Fallout

The World This Week

March 2026 | CWA # 2011

Tanvi Thara Harendra Jha

Canada’s PM Mark Carney’s India Visit

Resetting Economic, Strategic and Cultural Ties

Global Politics Early Bird

March 2026 | CWA # 2010

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal Elections 2026

The Rise of the “New” and the Fall of the “Old”

March 2026 | CWA # 2009

Sreemaya Nair

Nepal Elections 2026

Rise of a new leadership and Reset in political landscape

The World This Week

March 2026 | CWA # 2008

Global Politics Team

Canadian PM's India Visit I Nepal Elections and its Political Reset

March 2026 | CWA # 2007

Global Politics Team

The World Today #272, 06 March 2026

The World Today

Early Bird

March 2026 | CWA # 2006

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal Election 2026, Day One

Peaceful polling, with over 60 per cent turnout

March 2026 | CWA # 2005

Global Politics Team

The World Today #271, 05 March 2026

The World Today

March 2026 | CWA # 2004

Akshath Kaimal

The “Forgotten” South Sudan Conflict

Instability returns, with a fragile peace agreement, uptick in violence and limited international engagement

March 2026 | CWA # 2003

Yesasvi Koganti

PM Modi’s Visit to Israel

From bilateral ties to a special strategic partnership

March 2026 | CWA # 2002

Femy Francis

German Chancellor’s China Visit

Reducing trade deficit and recalibrating economic cooperation with Beijing

March 2026 | CWA # 2001

R Preetha

Trump’s State of the Union Address

Six major takeaways on the economy, border and internal security and Iran

March 2026 | CWA # 2000

Rohini Reenum

The US-Iran War, Week One

Rapid Escalation, Regional Spillover, Global Uncertainty

Conflict Weekly

March 2026 | CWA # 1999

IPRI Team

The US-Iran War, Week One | The Return of Violence to South Sudan

Weekly Column on Ukraine & Africa

February 2026 | CWA # 1998

Anu Maria Joseph

Instability in Sudan

Response to the genocide call and the threats of a regional spillover

February 2026 | CWA # 1997

Padmashree Anandhan

Four Years of War in Ukraine

Continuing Uncertainty

February 2026 | CWA # 1996

Akshath Kaimal

Pakistan-Afghanistan Clashes

Another round of cross-border attacks

March 2026 | CWA # 1995

Global Politics Team

The World Today #269, 03 March 2026

The World Today

March 2026 | CWA # 1994

Global Politics Team

The World Today #268, 02 March 2026

The World Today

PR Commentary

March 2026 | CWA # 1993

D Suba Chandran

The US-Iran Conflict and Pakistan

Balancing Rhetoric, Regional Interests and Global Alignments

Conflict Weekly

February 2026 | CWA # 1992

IPRI Team

Pakistan-Afghanistan Clashes I Fours Years of Ukraine War

Weekly Column on Africa

March 2026 | CWA # 1991

Global Politics Team

Trump’s State of the Union Address | German Chancellor’s China Visit | India’s PM’s Israel Visit

February 2026 | CWA # 1990

Global Politics Team

The World Today #266, 27 February 2026

The World Today

Conflict Weekly

February 2026 | CWA # 1989

IPRI Team

Abu Dhabi Talks on Ukraine I Militant Attacks in Balochistan

CW Columns on Middle East and Africa

February 2026 | CWA # 1988

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine Peace talks in Abu Dhabi

Negotiations without a ceasefire or resolution

February 2026 | CWA # 1987

Akshath Kaimal

Continuing militant attacks in Balochistan

Expanding violence, Security-first response and Missing political dialogue in Pakistan

PR Commentary

February 2026 | CWA # 1986

R Preetha

Pakistan’s Central Asia Boost

Pakistan’s Climate and Water Crisis

Five Questions on Challenges, Capacity and Policies

The World This Week

February 2026 | CWA # 1965

Global Politics Team

AI Impact Summit in New Delhi I Munich Security Conference 2026

Conflict Weekly

February 2026 | CWA # 1964

IPRI Team

US-Iran & Ukraine Negotiations in Geneva I US Military Deployment in Nigeria

CW Columns on Middle East and Africa

February 2026 | CWA # 1963

Global Politics Team

The World Today #255, 16 February 2026

Today in History

The World This Week

February 2026 | CWA # 1962

Global Politics Team

Japan: Sanae Takaichi’s historic win | Honk Kong: Jimmy Lai Sentenced

Regional Roundups: From East Asia to the Americas

Early Bird

February 2026 | CWA # 1961

Lekshmi MK

Sanae Takaichi’s historic win in Japan

What does it mean for domestic politics and regional stability?

Early Bird

February 2026 | CWA # 1960

Femy Francis

Jimmy Lai sentenced for 20 years in Hong Kong: Who, What, and Why

CEAP

February 2026 | CWA # 1959

Yesasvi Koganti

UK and China

PM Keir Starmer’s visit and the Recalibration of Economic, Strategic, and Domestic ties

February 2026 | CWA # 1958

Akshath Kaimal

India-EU Free Trade Agreement: Five Major Takeaways

The focus on expanded cooperation in defence, technology and critical minerals

February 2026 | CWA # 1957

R Preetha

The India–US interim trade framework

Tariff recalibration and Energy and Supply Chain realignment

February 2026 | CWA # 1956

Lekshmi MK

End of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START)

Erosion of arms control, Return of nuclear anxieties, and the New focus on China

The World This Week

February 2026 | CWA # 1955

Global Politics Team

End of the New START I India–US interim Trade Framework I India-EU Free Trade Agreement I UK PM Keir Starmer’s China visit

Regional Roundups: From East Asia to the Americas

February 2026 | CWA # 1954

Nishchal Nath Pandey

Nepal Elections 2026: Political Parties, Gen Z Protests and Hope for a New Beginning

Conflict Weekly

February 2026 | CWA # 1953

IPRI Team

Abu Dhabi Talks on Ukraine I Militant Attacks in Balochistan

Weekly Columns: Conflicts in Africa and the Middle East

CW Column: Conflicts in the Middle East

January 2026 | CWA # 1952

Brighty Ann Sarah

US threats against Iran, and Phase Two operations in Gaza

CW Column: Conflicts in Africa

January 2026 | CWA # 1951

Anu Maria Joseph

Africa: Renewed violence in Ethiopia and a Jihadist attack in Niger

CW Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1950

Lekshmi MK

The War in Ukraine: The Trilateral Talks, and the Deadlock over Donetsk & Security Guarantees for Kyiv

CW Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1949

R Preetha

The United States: ICE Crackdowns, Rising Resistance and the Political/Legal pushback

Conflict Weekly

January 2026 | CWA # 1948

ICE Crackdowns and Resistance in the US I Trilateral Talks on Ukraine

TWTW Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1947

Brighty Ann Sarah

The Pentagon’s National Defence Strategy: Four major takeaways

TWTW Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1946

R Preetha

The Davos Summit 2026

Five Major Takeaways from The World Economic Forum

The World This Week

January 2026 | CWA # 1945

Global Politics Team

The Davos Forum 2026 Takeaways I The US Pentagon’s National Defence Strategy

CW Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1944

Brighty Ann Sarah

Syria: The State victory over the Syrian Democratic Forces

Conflict Weekly Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1943

Anu Maria Joseph

Another major kidnapping in Nigeria and Election announcement in Guinea-Bissau

CW Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1942

Lekshmi MK

Greenland: Trump’s escalation-deescalation approach and Europe’s defence

CW Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1941

Brighty Ann Sarah

The War in Gaza: Trump’s Board of Peace and the Challenges to Phase Two

Conflict Weekly

January 2026 | CWA # 1940

IPRI Team

Trump’s “Board of Peace” in Gaza I Escalation/De-escalation in Greenland

TWTW Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1939

Lekshmi MK

Greenland: Trump’s escalation-deescalation strategy and Europe’s defence

The World This Week

January 2026 | CWA # 1938

Continuing Tensions over Greenland

CW Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1937

Anu Maria Joseph

Instability in Nigeria: Intensifying domestic responses, and questions over Trump’s intervention

CW Note

January 2026 | CWA # 1936

Brighty Ann Sarah

Protests in Iran: Continuing Stalemate and Shifting US Position

Conflict Weekly

January 2026 | CWA # 1935

IPRI Team

Protests in Iran | Instability in Nigeria

The World This Week

January 2026 | CWA # 1934

Global Politics Team

The US, Greenland and Trump's Claims

Conflict Weekly

January 2026 | CWA # 1933

IPRI Team

Protests in Iran, the US Military Intervention in Venezuela and Conflicts in Africa

NIAS Conflict Weekly | The World This Week

January 2026 | CWA # 1932

Global Politics Team