Global Politics

10 May 2022, Tuesday| NIAS Europe Daily Brief #197

War in Ukraine: Day 75

The UK Met Office predicts rise of global temperatures by 1.7 C; DUP withhold nomination of its ministers over trade protocol

Photo : Reuters

War in Ukraine: Day 75
By Padmashree Anandhan, Ashwin Dhanabalan, and Emmanuel Royan

War on the ground
Zelenskyy's address
On 09 May, president Zelenskyy commemorated Victory Day over the defeat of Nazism and addressed the people of the country. He said they are proud of their forefathers, who fought Nazism alongside other nations in the anti-Hitler alliance and will not allow the triumph to be appropriated by anyone. He further stated that the thousands of Ukrainians who fought and expelled Nazi's from Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, Melitpol, and Mariupol will inspire and give hope to drive out the occupiers again.

In his evening video address to the people of Ukraine, Zelenskyy briefed about all the meetings and events held in Kyiv during the day. He also expressed gratitude to all the defenders and international organizations for their support. Zelenskyy raised concerns about the possibility of famines and price rises in Africa and Asia caused by the invasion of Russia.

Dialogues with the EU
On 09 May, Zelenskyy and prime minister Denys Shmyhal held a video conference with the president of the European Council Charles Michel to discuss further humanitarian aid and military support provided by the EU. Michel also visited Odesa to witness the devastation caused by the war in Ukraine. Zelenskyy expressed gratitude to Michel for his physical presence in Odesa and appreciated the sanctions against Russia by the EU. Michel stated that he admired the resilience and courage of Ukrainians. He also acknowledged that the Ukrainians today are fighting not only for their country but also for the values of democracy and freedom in Europe.

On the same day, president Zelenskyy announced that he had submitted the second questionnaire to obtain EU membership to the head of the EU delegation to Ukraine, Matti Maasikas. Zelenskyy stated: "I think these answers are also a small victory for our team. We are waiting for the consideration and conclusions of the European Commission. I would like these conclusions to be positive. And I would like these conclusions to be provided faster thanks to you." President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen appreciated Zelenskyy's eagerness and prompt response; she further mentioned that the commission would work diligently to review the submission and reach a decision by June

Also, on 09 May, Zelenskyy met with the secretary general of the Council of Europe, Marija Pejčinović Burić. The leaders discussed measures to build a group of legal experts to help the prosecutor general's office and establish a new online platform called Cities4Cities to serve local communities in Ukraine. Zelenskyy also urged the Council of Europe to make every effort to prevent Russia from illegally deporting Ukrainian people from temporarily occupied territories and war zones. He further asked the council to engage with other international partners to guarantee that Ukrainians are returned to their homeland.

Calls for help
On 09 May, Zelenskyy urged the international community to assist Ukraine in removing the Russian blockade of shipping ports to export wheat and prevent food shortages worldwide. Zelenskyy stated: "For the first time in decades and decades, in Odesa, there is no regular movement of the merchant fleet, there is no routine port work. This has probably never happened in Odesa since World War Two." The call for help came following the Food and Agriculture Organization report released on 06 May stating that about 25 million tonnes of grains are stranded in Ukraine and unable to leave owing to infrastructural problems and blocked Black Sea ports.

Over a million are estimated to be illegally deported to Russia
On 09 May, the commissioner for Human Rights in the Ukrainian Parliament Lyudmila Denisova stated that over a million Ukrainian people had been deported to Russia. She further added that the Ukrainians in the Russian-occupied regions are being sent to filter camps, and those who pass the procedure will be unlawfully deported to Russia. Denisova claims that 200,000 children are among the 1,185,000 Ukrainians who have been forcefully deported across the border.
Awards and honours

On 09 May, a mine-sniffing dog named Patron and his owner Myhailo Iliev were awarded the medal of honour by president Zelenskyy at Kyiv for helping to find over 200 mines. The Jack Russel terrier dog has become a national hero and a symbol of resistance against Russia.

The Moscow view:
Claims by Russia
Putin's Victory Day speech
On 09 May, Russia's president Vladimir Putin gave his address for the Victory Day in the Red Square. Victory Day, which marks Soviet Union's win over Nazi Germany, Putin applauded each veteran present on the day. He began his remarks about the Russian fighters fighting in the war. He expressed concerns about the soldiers who had died. In the speech, he called the war in Ukraine a special military operation and said it was the right decision for a "strong and sovereign country." Although there were no major announcements on the war or Russia's strategies, he portrayed that Europe had denied Russia's requests despite Russia asking Europe to find a common cause to negotiate. He added: "In Kyiv, they were saying they might get nuclear weapons and Nato started exploring the lands close to us and that became an obvious threat to our country and our borders. Everything was telling us that there is a need to fight."

The Victory Parade
The day marks the offensives launched by Russia and the mass extraditions carried out due to Nazi crimes. It is celebrated by the Russians to remember the sacrifice of its citizens and the loss that was incurred by the country. On 09 May, the parade by the Russian military in Russia was a display of its troops, weapon systems such as self-propelled artillery, ground-launched ballistic missiles, heavy armour, and combat vehicles. Apart from this, the parade also included Russia's paratroops formation, long-range missiles, and Russia's nuclear arsenal.

THE West view:
Responses from the US and Europe
The US
On 09 May, the US announced its plans to provide Ukraine with USD 39.8 billion in aid. This comes as the house of representatives said it was planning to pass the previous bill of USD 33 billion. The new proposal included an additional USD 3.4 billion for military aid and USD 3.4 billion in humanitarian aid and the USD 33 billion proposed.

The US adopted the Lend-Lease Act to smoothen weapons and aid transports to Ukraine. On the same day, US president Joe Biden said he eased the acceleration of US weapon shipments to Ukraine. He further mentioned how 09 May marked the anniversary of Europe Day, which celebrates the founding of the EU in 1950.

Also, on 09 May, the US department of defence said Russia's president Vladimir Putin's remarks included the usual bluster, falsehoods, and untruths. Concerning the war in Ukraine, the pentagon's spokesperson John Kirby stated that there was no stalemate in Ukraine as artillery attacks continued. He further added: "We do not see the Russians making a lot of progress and we believe they are behind their schedule and are not making much geographic gain."

The UK
On 09 May, UK's defence secretary Ben Wallace accused Russia's armed forces of amorality and corruption. He added how the soviet conscripts then and the Russian forces now were suffering needlessly due to the absence of effective military leadership. He said: "Fear and sycophancy dictated behaviors then, and today's Russian armed forces still carry that Soviet imprint – the imprint of amorality and corruption."

France
On 09 May, Germany's chancellor Olaf Scholz met with France's president Emmanuel Macron in Berlin. The two discussed how the war in Ukraine was a turning point in history as it united the countries in Europe. Macron mentioned that the two countries had to work together to tackle more significant challenges as the countries continued their support of Ukraine.

On the same day, Macron had addressed the European parliament and proposed a formation of a new political European community that would be inclusive of countries outside the EU to join the bloc's core values. Macron also mentioned how Ukraine's proposal to join the EU would take several decades due to the process of a country integrating into the EU. Thus, he suggested that the European political community increase political cooperation, security, cooperation in energy, transport, investment in infrastructure, and movement of people.

Italy
On 09 May, Italy's parliamentary committee stated that it had begun its investigations concerning the spread of disinformation on its television networks. Italy had aired an interview where Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov gave controversial remarks about Ukraine's president. The committee is looking into the issue not to discourage press freedom but to deter the spread of disinformation, interference, the production of fake news, and influence.

Poland
On 09 May, protestors doused Russia's ambassador to Poland in red paint as he attended the 77th anniversary of the end of the second world war. The protestors also waved Ukraine flags and white-red-white flags as a symbol of the Belarusian opposition movement.

The EU
On 09 May, the EU's commission president Ursula von der Leyen said the bloc aimed to deliver its decision for Ukraine to join the EU by June. Von der Leyen had earlier pledged to Zelenskyy to speed up Ukraine's bid to become an EU member. She is also planning to visit Hungary to meet prime minister Viktor Orbán and discuss the complications that arose due to the proposal of the sixth package of sanctions by the EU.
On the same day, the EU's council president Charles Michel who was on a visit to Odessa was forced to take cover from incoming missile strikes. His meeting with Ukraine's prime minister, Denys Shmyhal, was interrupted by missile strikes as the two hurried to take shelter.

THE Global Fallouts:
International implications of the Ukraine war
China
On 09 May, China's president Xi Jinping warned Germany's chancellor, Olaf Scholz, of an unmanageable situation if the Ukraine war continues. Xi stated that the ongoing war had to be controlled to avoid the war from intensifying and expanding. Xi also invited Germany to participate in the Global Security Initiative.

Japan
On 09 May, Japan's prime minister Fumio Kishida mentioned that the country would take time to phase out Russian oil imports. This comes as Japan had agreed to ban Russian oil imports along with the G7 countries. He further added: "As for the timing of the reduction or stoppage of (Russian) oil imports, we will consider it while gauging the actual situation. We will take our time to take steps towards a phase-out."

Fiji
On 09 May, a Fiji court said that it suspended the execution of the USD 300 million superyachts. The yacht is still currently under Fiji police's custody and is blocked from leaving the country. The US had earlier won custody of the yacht, but the company obtained a temporary stay on the warrant.

The UN
On 09 May, the UN secretary-general António Guterres in his visit to Moldova mentioned that the consequences of Russia's war against Ukraine were escalating. He added how the impact of the war "is profound and far-reaching". Guterres further added that he was deeply concerned about continuing the war and its spillover to the neighboring countries. Concerning Moldova's sovereignty and territorial integrity, he said that the country must not be threatened or undermined.
On the same day, the UNHRC stated that it would hold a special session to address Russia's human rights violations in Ukraine. This comes as more than 50 countries had called on the UNHRC to examine the deteriorating human rights situation in Mariupol.

IN BRIEF
By Sai Pranav
NORTHERN IRELAND
DUP halt the re-establishment of Stormont over the NI protocol
On 09 May, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) halted the formation of a government in Northern Ireland (NI) by nominating not even one minister. While holding the second-most seats in the assembly and the chair of the deputy first minister, DUP has not taken any action due to its concerns over the Northern Ireland protocol. All the party leaders met with NI Secretary Brandon Lewis in Belfast on 09 May to discuss the quick re-establishment of Stormont. He urged all party leaders to respect the election results. The free trade agreement on the Irish border post-Brexit is the main reason for the concern for DUP and that the party would nominate its ministers only after a decisive action on the protocol is taken. Michelle O'Neill, the would-be first minister from Sinn Féin said that DUP and the UK government must respect the outcomes of the election, and Boris Johnson and the EU should resolve the issues over the protocol. Other parties like the Alliance Party said in a statement that DUP should either nominate their ministers or should become opposition and let them do their job. (Chris Andrews, “NI election 2022: DUP blocks new NI government in Brexit protest,” BBC News, 10 May 2022)

THE UK
The UK aviation industry's not positive about climate change measures
On May 10, airlines in the UK missed all the goals and targets set since 2000 to reduce their carbon footprint except for one. The aviation industry is responsible for seven per cent of the UK's greenhouse gas emissions. Many companies set targets to achieve greener and more efficient fuels but those were forgotten after a few years. The only company to accomplish a target was EasyJet, which reduced fuel burn per passenger kilometre by three per cent by 2015. However, it missed other targets like building “ecojet” which would emit 50 per cent less carbon dioxide than its current planes. The government is also trying to tackle the issue of climate change by decarbonizing airlines through its Jet Zero strategy. le Murray from an international NGO said that the government should prioritize other modes of transportation to reduce its carbon footprints. (Georgina Rannard, “Climate change: Airlines miss all but one target - report, BBC News, 10 May 2022)

The UK researchers predict a rise in global temperature in the next five years
On 10 May, researchers from the UK Meteorological (Met) office warned that the global temperature may increase temporarily by more than 1.5 celsius for the next five years due to greenhouse gasses. 2016 and 2022 marked the record for the warmest years causing El Niño. In 2015, the world saw a rise in the global warming threshold being more than one Celsius leading to the formation of the Paris agreement. Researchers expect fifty-fifty odds of the world becoming warm again temporarily with the temperature between 1.1 celsius and 1.7 celsius higher than the pre-industrial 19th-century levels from 2022 to 2026 resulting in a record-breaking rise in global average warmth. The world is already experiencing serious impacts in regards to climate change, spontaneous wildfires, and heatwaves in countries like India and Pakistan with around one celsius of global warming. According to the Met office researchers, the Arctic region will be the warmest and will have a rise in sea level. (Matt McGrath, “Climate change: 'Fifty-fifty chance' of breaching 1.5C warming limit,” BBC News, 10 May 2022)

REGIONAL
Macron calls for a new organisation to unite European democracies
On 09 May, France's president Emmanuel Macron wants to create a new body to unite European democratic nations under one roof. The organization was called for the sake of Ukraine as it would take years for it to join the EU. Macon said that it would enable democracies in Europe to find a space for political cooperation. Ukraine's application for membership in the EU would take time as it has to go through a series of processes such as candidacy status, accession, and whether the country meets all the criteria. Kyiv submitted a 5,000-page document to Brussels answering its suitability in the EU but the response was yet to be given. If the membership process is quickened for Ukraine, other Balkan states that had been on the waiting list for years would become upset. So to tackle the problem, the new body would look into these issues, and also it would stand with Ukraine in the war for it to win. (Jennifer Rankin, “Macron calls for new European body and warns Ukraine of EU wait,” The Guardian, 09 May 2022)

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