EM Comment
Queen Elizabeth: End of an era
By Padmashree Anandhan

On 08 September, UK’s Queen Elizabeth II who took the throne in 1952 passed away at the age of 96 in Balmoral Castle, Scotland. With the passing of the Queen, the next in line King Charles III has become the next monarch of the UK. As the head of the state for UK, 14 countries including Australia and Canada, she has reigned from the period of Winston Churchill till the appointment of Prime Minister Liz Truss, marking 70 years. Her role included “opening the new session of Parliament, granting Royal Assent to legislation, and approving Orders and Proclamations through the Privy Council.” She had a specific role in the UK parliament, through audience with Prime Ministers, advice to the government and had the right to consult, encourage and warn during the audience.

From a princess to the Queen: The Elizabethan era
Queen Elizabeth was born in central London on 21 April 1926, who was only a young princess until the eldest son Edward VIII of King George V renounced the title, making her father George VI the King. Her famous lines during the first overseas tour to South Africa in 1947: “My whole life, whether it be long or short, shall be devoted to your service and to the service of our great imperial family to which we all belong.” In late 1951, during her tour to East Africa, Kenya which was a British Colony was where she immediatly became Queen Elizabeth after the death of King George VI from cancer. After the coronation in 1953 which was televised for the first time, was symbolled as the post war recovery. Her tour from Bermuda to Australia as Queen was seen as a historical moment with Ghana becoming independent and India turned 10 years in 1957.

With the British empire shrinking, in 1965 Zimbabwe challenged the Queen and declared independence, followed by economic turbulence which struck the UK in 1970’s. This shook the reputation and image of the monarchy, showing it as more aggressive, vulnerable to stresses. After from the economic shock, the Queen faced criticism over the personal exemption from paying income taxes. Next set of criticism arose over the split of Prince Charles and Diana in 1992, her death in 1997, followed by Charles’s reveal of his relationship with Camilla Parker-Bowles. But through the difficult economic situations, and family diversions, the Queen continued to perform her duties, which became evident in 2002 with the celebration of 50 years of her reign. By 2015, Queen Elizabeth became the longest ruling monarch exceeding the period of Queen Victoria and commemorated her platinum jubilee in 2022.

Eight major decisions
First, the 1956 Suez crisis. When Israel invaded Egypt in 1956 in the interest to capture the Western part of Suez Canal and Egypt President General Nasser nationalised one of the busiest shipping routes to free Egypt from Britain’s influence. Britain and France along with Israel launched attacks as it was an important trade route to transit to its empires and a source for oil. Queen’s stance on the intervention was not pro-Suez and Britain’s move was reported to be disapproved.

Second, in 1965 her first visit to Western Germany after the second world war for forming an understanding, and mend ties between Britain and Germany for the losses from the war. She also joined the Women's Auxiliary Territory Service.

Third, the dress-downs in opening of new UK Parliament. The Queen who wears the robe, comes in golden carriage, imperial state crown and a traditional Queen speech during the opening of new parliament, has so far dressed down twice. One, where former Prime Minister Edward Heath was defeated in a snap election by the labour leader, Harold Wilson in 1974. Two, after 43 years, when former Prime Minister Theresa May called for snap elections in 2017.

Fourth, the 1998 abolition of By-Elections for hereditary peers. In the 1998 speech, Queen announced the removal of traditional rights of 700 hereditary peers in the House of Lords.The hereditary members of the house were initially replaced upon death, resignation, and expulsion through “By-Elections.” Upon the new bill such replacements were abolished, allowing vacancies to lapse. 

Fifth, in 1999 the Queen opened the national assembly in Wales and Scottish Parliament. Despite the advice from the Home Office to the Queen in opening the Welsh Assembly, as it felt the absence of “a clear political direction” the Queen went strong to open the Assembly. Similarly recognizing Scotland’s politic and laws, the Queen opened the Scottish Parliament giving it the law-making powers.

Sixth, Queen’s first visit to Ireland in 2011 since its independence in 1921 was marked historic. The hand shake was seen as new step to Anglo-Irish relations, breaking through the old past of death of Lord Mountbatten, who was killed by McGuinness party member. It marked the triumph of peace process, winning all the critics over monarchy.

Seven, another important shift in the royal accession rulebook was the relaxing of gender norm and Catholic factor in 2013. The changes were, regardless of the gender, the eldest daughter of the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge can become the Queen. Next, was the removing of the law over the marriage of future monarch from any faith, and not being specifically Catholic.

Eight, the Queen’s last appointment of new Prime Minister Liz Truss replacing Boris Johnson takes place in Balmoral Castle on 06 September instead of Buckingham Palace upon doctor’s suggestion to rest.

IN BRIEF
By Rishma Banerjee

SWEDEN
18-year-old gets life sentence for the murder of two teachers
On 08 September, an 18-year-old student who killed two teachers in a secondary school in Sweden was sentenced to life in jail. Fabian Cederholm committed the crime on 21 March and used knives and an axe for the attack. He is believed to be the first 18-year-old to to be granted a life-sentence in Sweden, which is normally a minimum of 20-25 years in prison. As justification for the sentence, Judge Johan Kvart called the attacks particularly ruthless and said: “These are two very brutal murders where the victims greatly suffered and experienced severe fear of death.” (“Life sentence for Swedish teen for killing teachers with axe and knives,” BBC, 08 September 2022)

REGIONAL
Taxi drivers across Europe protest against Uber in Brussels
On 08 September, taxi drivers across Europe gathered in front of the European Commission’s Berlaymont building in Brussels to protest against the ride-hailing platform Uber. The protests are a fallout from the Uber Files investigation that gained ground in July, documenting how Uber evaded regulations to increase its presence in many European cities. The company had collaborated with France’s president Emmanuel Macron to expand its business. The protestors came from Spain, Switzerland, Italy, and other countries, citing how due to Uber, taxi drivers across Europe were suffering. Due to a lack of response from their own governments, the protestors are demanding that the EU take the necessary action. In terms of EU’s response so far, the Council of the EU and the European Parliament are investigation a proposal by the European Commission to reclassify up to 4.1 million workers, including Uber drivers, as employees instead of as independent contractors. (Hanne Cokelaere, “European taxi drivers block Brussels in Uber Files protest,” POLITICO, 08 September 2022) 

2022 becomes the hottest summer ever recorded in Europe
On 08 September, the European climate observation service Copernicus reported that the June to August of 2022 was the hottest to be recorded in Europe. The rise in average temperature was noted in the frequent heatwaves and the extensive drought conditions across the continent. In terms of increase from 2021, the average temperature was more by a margin of 0.4 degrees Celsius. As compared to 2018, August was hotter by 0.8 degrees Celsius. August was drier than average across most of Western and Eastern Europe, while Scandinavia and parts of south and south eastern Europe experienced more rainfall than average. (Antonia Zimmermann, “Summer 2022 was Europe’s hottest on record,” POLITICO, 08 September 2022) 

European Central Bank raises interest rates again to tackle inflation
On 08 August, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced a rise in Eurozone interest rates. The ECB raised all its key rates by three-quarters of a percentage point and warned that rates could rise again later in 2022. The first rise in interest rates in the last 11 years was in July. These rapid rises in rates are to combat the rising inflation in the Eurozone, which has been due to the coronavirus pandemic and then Russia’s war in Ukraine. ECB president Christine Lagarde said that since they cannot control the high energy prices, rising the interest rates was one of the only ways to encourage people to borrow and spend less and thus save more money. (“Eurozone interest rates in record rise to fight inflation,” BBC, 08 September 2022)

North Atlantic Council promises to support Albania against future cyberattacks
On 08 September, the North Atlantic Council released a statement regarding the cyberattack against Albania. The council acknowledged Iran as the perpetrator of the attack and condemned the efforts to destabilize the security of any member-states or allies. It promised to assist Albania in strengthening its cyber defence capacities so that they can overcome such attacks in the future. The Council said that they promote a free, open, peaceful and secure cyberspace and thus will support each other to defend and counter the “full spectrum of cyber threats.” (“Statement by the North Atlantic Council concerning the malicious cyber activities against Albania,” NATO, 08 September 2022)

War in Ukraine: Day 197
By Rishma Banerjee

War on the ground
On 08 September, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that the Ukraine’s budget for 2023 would be a war budget. He outlined five issues that the new budget will be looking at. First, around USD 27.4 billion will be dedicated to military and security spending. Second, it will aim to ensure all of Ukraine’s social obligations like providing pensions. Third, the new budget will look to reduce all non-critical state expenditures to “withstand difficult times and ensure financial and social stability.” Fourth, economic relations within the country will be intensified to help businesses, save jobs and attract new employees. Fifth, the new budget will look into the establishment of a special recovery fund at the expense of Russian assets that have been confiscated. 

Zelenskyy spoke about the Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region. Ukraine’s Army General Staff referred to the same and said that a massive operation was underway. He urged citizens and service personnel to not release details of the counteroffensive. Ukraine’s Armed Forces have advanced 40 kilometers into the occupied territories in Kharkiv. Three to four armoured brigades, with T-72 tanks, artillery pieces and rocket artillery systems have been stationed in the Kharkiv centre to carry on the counteroffensive. 

On the same day, Ukrinform reported on a statement released by the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine’s Defense Ministry, warning citizens of fake online platforms discrediting Zelenskyy. The ministry said that these platforms were in use in Western Europe and contained fraudulent fundraising options claiming to be for aid to Ukraine. The press service said: “The project resembles a classic Ponzi scheme. We call on Ukrainians and the international community not to trust Russian fakes and to take into account information exclusively from the official platforms of the President of Ukraine and the Office of the Head of State.” 

On 08 September, Ukraine’s Infrastructure Ministry said that 43.9 per cent of Ukraine’s agricultural imports are going to Asian countries. The Ministry informed that that around 2.37 million tonnes of agricultural products have been exported so far, of which around 1.04 million tonnes have been sent to Asia. Around 0.47 million tonnes have been sent to Africa. However, additionally two ships chartered by the UN World Food Programme has left for Yemen and Ethiopia to provide aid the critical food security conditions in the two states. Ukraine’s Agrarian Policy and Food Minister, Mykola Solskyi addressed the import of grains, saying that a monthly increase of 20-30 per cent has been reported in export volumes.

On 07 September, Ukraine’s Ministry for Reintegration of Temporarily Occupied Territories said that Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk will head the newly formed coordination headquarters for “deoccupied territories.” The main function of this headquarter will be the restoration of territories liberated from the enemy and the reconstruction of civil infrastructure in these areas. 

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 08 September, Russia’s Prime Minister, Mikhail Mishustin said that Russia’s federal budget for the next three years would be under stress. However, he assured that the main tasks of the state would be fulfilled successfully. The head of the Cabinet, Mishustin said this in an interview aired on Rossiya-24 TV channel to commemorate the 220th anniversary of Russia’s Ministry of Finance. While he issued the warning about how forming the budget would be difficult because of the international sanctions against Russia, he said: “We will certainly cope with these tasks and emerge from this crisis stronger, more professionally prepared. We will succeed.”

On the same day, Russia’s Deputy Minister of Economic Development, Polina Kryuchkova spoke about the existing apprehension that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the resultant sanctions would affect the economy severely, resulting in a 10-20 per cent fall. However, she assured that by the end of 2022, the Russian economy is expected to shrink by not more than three per cent. Deputy Prime Minister Andrey Belousov reiterated Kryuchkova’s statement. According to him, Russia’s GDP will lose 2 per cent in 2022 and in 2023 the decline will be limited to one per cent. 

On 08 September, the head of the International Centre for Joint Initiatives, Alexey Kalachev said that the Western sanctions on Russia will give an impetus for a better relation between China and Russia. Speaking on the sidelines of the Eastern Economic Forum (EEF), Kalachev highlighted that due to the existing sanctions, Russia is now looking to establish greater contact with China in spheres like farming, car manufacturing, IT technology and construction. At the EEF, several deals have been signed between Chinese companies and Russia. For example, the largest construction company in the world by revenue, China State Construction Engineering Corporation signed a deal with Russia, for the development of sites in Moscow and St. Petersburg by 2024. Deals were inked with resources developer NFC and Sunny Machinery Factory. Kalachev, whose company was set up to coordinate deals between Russia and foreign firms under sanctions, estimates that while the trade turnover in 2021 between the two countries reached USD 146 billion, if the current pace of cooperation is maintained, it might reach USD 200 billion by 2024.

On the same issue, Kommersant business daily reported that China had increased the import of Russian energy and raw materials, while their imports for tech exports have not seen a similar growth. Between January to August 2022, China imported USD 72.9 billion worth of goods, which marks a 50 per cent increase from the same period in 2021. Kommersant, said that among all of Russia’s trading partners, China’s import structure was one of the least diversified, thus hinting at more scope for collaboration.

The Secretary-General of the ruling United Russia Party, Andrey Turchak proposed a new date to hold referendums in territories occupied by Russia in Ukraine. He suggested that fixing Russia’s Day of National Unity on 04 November to hold the votes would be “right and symbolic.” On the issue of reunification, Turchak said: “Donetsk, Luhansk and many other Russian cities will finally return to their home port. And the Russian world, now divided by formal borders, will regain its integrity.”

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 08 August, NATO members and other Western delegates conducted a US-led Ukraine Conference at the Ramstein Air Base in Germany. Participants discussed the sustenance of military and financial aid to Ukraine. NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg warned that the participating countries must be prepared for the upcoming winter months, keeping in mind that Russia is unlikely to give up its “goal of taking control of Ukraine,'' soon. He pointed out that the winter will be tough for Ukraine, as with the increase in Ukraine’s army, there is an increased need for winter uniforms, electricity generators and other equipment like tents. On providing assistance to Ukraine, Stoltenberg said: “NATO will pay a price but we must stay the course on Ukraine.” German Defence Minister Christine Lambrecht promised that Germany will deliver these materials to Ukraine. Lambrecht with Netherland’s Defence Minister, Kajsa Ollongren announced that they will train Ukrainian soldiers on mine detections and clearing. The participants at the Summit praised Ukraine’s army for the on-ground defence.

At the same conference, US Defence Secretary, Lloyd Austin announced a new package of USD 675 million in military assistance to Ukraine. The new round of supplies will include more MLRS, ammunition, military vehicles and anti-tank systems. Commenting on the new assistance, Austin said: “Just looking around the table, I can see our unity of purpose… We must evolve as the fight evolves.” The new military assistance is a part of the larger USD 2.7 billion approved by US for long-term assistance for Ukraine as investments. This is expected to increase the security of Ukraine and 18 more neighboring countries against the risk of future Russian aggression.

On the same day, Poland announced that they will join Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia in restricting the entry of Russian citizens into its territory. In a statement, the government said: “It is unacceptable that, while people in Ukraine are being tortured and murdered, citizens from the aggressor state (Russia) can travel freely within the EU.” The measure will enter into force from 19 September is aimed to prevent Russians from using these countries as transit points to travel further into Europe.

On 07 September, Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdogan alleged that the West was provoking Russia. Erdogan believes that the war is unlikely to end “anytime soon” and thus it was imperative for countries not to underestimate Russia. In a press conference with Serbia’s president, in Belgrade, Erdogan said: “I can clearly say that I do not find the attitude of the West [toward Russia] right” 

The Global Fallouts 
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 08 September, Japan and India agreed to expand their military cooperation. In the same context, Japan’s Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi referred to Russia’s war on Ukraine, increasing assertive actions from China, especially about Taiwan and the nuclear threats from North Korea. Hayashi thus pointed out an increasing need for India and Japan to ramp up their security cooperation. The Foreign Ministers and Defence Ministers of the two countries met in Tokyo to discuss the same. In a statement released after the meeting, the four ministers said that India and Japan will collaborate on the development of unmanned ground vehicle technology and will further discuss areas of future cooperation in defence equipment. Both reiterated their commitment to establish a “free and open Indo-Pacific vision," to counter China’s aggrandizement efforts in the region.

On 07 September, India’s Prime Minister, Narendra Modi said that despite international ostracization, India will improve their ties with Russia. In an online address at the Eastern Economic Forum, Modi praised the “Act Far-East Policy” launched by India in collaboration with Russia. He indicated to a “special partnership” between the countries, especially on energy and coking coal. India’s Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri put forward a similar stance in an interview with CNBC. He said that India will consider the proposal to set a price cap on Russian oil, but there were no moral obligations for India to sign it. He said: “No, there’s no conflict. I have a moral duty to my consumer. Do I as a democratically elected government want a situation where the petrol pump runs dry?”

References
“The draft state budget for 2023 will provide more than UAH 1 trillion for the security and defense sector - Volodymyr Zelenskyy,” president.gov.ua, 08 September 2022
“This week we have good news from the Kharkiv region; I think every citizen feels proud of our warriors - address by the President of Ukraine,” president.gov.ua, 07 September 2022
Stefan Korshak, “UAF Lunges Forward in Kharkiv sector, Advance 30 km, Serious Russian losses Reported,” Kyiv Post, 08 September 2022
“Russian intelligence creates fake website to discredit Zelensky,” Ukrinform, 08 September 2022
“Ukraine has exported 44% of agricultural products to Asian countries,” Ukrinform, 08 September 2022
“Ukraine increases grain exports by 20-30% every month – Solskyi,” Ukrinform, 07 September 2022
“Vereshchuk to head coordination headquarters for deoccupied territories,” Ukrinform, 07 September 2022
“Mishustin: Russia will become stronger after this crisis,” TASS, 08 September 2022
“Mishustin announced the "difficult" budget for the next three years,” TASS, 08 September 2022
“The decline of the Russian economy was assessed,” LENTA.RU, 08 September 2022
“Sanctions offer opportunities for Russia and China, official tells RT,” RT, 08 September 2022
“China Ups Russian Imports, Keeps Exports Level – Kommersant,” The Moscow Times, 08 September 2022
“Russia Ruling Party Proposes Nov. 4 Annexation Votes For Occupied Ukraine,” The Moscow Times, 08 September 2022
“'Winter is coming' to Ukraine, warns NATO chief at Ramstein summit,” Deutsche Welle, 08 September 2022
Lili Bayer, “US approves $675M more in weapons for Ukraine,” POLITICO, 08 September 2022
Patrick Jackson, “Ukraine war: US approves $2.6bn in aid for Ukraine and allies,” BBC, 09 September 2022
Sergiy Voloshyn and Simon Lewis, “Blinken visits Ukraine to offer new US military aid for counteroffensive,” Reuters, 08 September 2022
“Poland joins Baltic states on new limits to entry of Russian nationals,” Reuters, 08 September 2022
Wilhelmine Preussen, “Erdoğan accuses West of ‘provocation’ toward Russia,” POLITICO, 07 September 2022
Mari Yamaguchi, “Japan, India to step up arms drills, technology cooperation,” AP News, 08 September 2022
Karen Gilchrist, “India’s PM Modi says he’s keen to boost ties with Russia, including energy,” CNBC, 08 September 2022