IN BRIEF
By Sai Pranav
BOSNIA
Protests rise against Milorad Dodik for ballot rigging scandal
On 10 October, thousands of people protested against the Russia-favouring Bosnian Serb leader, Milorad Dodik, for allegedly rigging the general election to his favour. The demonstration was the second in a week. The opposition claim that Dodik had rigged the ballot and their candidate Jelena Trivic was robbed of her victory. The government had asked for rechecking of every ballot in the country and recounting of 1000 polling stations before the final tally. He had denied any allegation about the possible cheating in the election. Dodik was one of the key figures behind the separatist movement asking for Republika Srpska to be separated from the Bosnia. He has close ties with Russia, which fuels the instability in the country. The country suffers from corruption and ethnic tensions between the Bosniak Serbs and Bosniak-Croat. (“Bosnia election: Vote-rigging allegations spark more mass protests,” euronews, 10 October 2022)
ESTONIA
Two deputy mayors of Kohtla-Jarve asked to resign by the Mayor on the grounds of corruption
On 11 October, two Deputy Mayors from the Estonian city of Kohtla-Jarve were suspected of corruption have denied Mayor Toomas Nael’s request to resign. Deputy Mayor for social affairs Evelyn Danilov and Deputy Mayor for economic affairs Vitaly Borodin were the two accused officals in relation with corruption. Both denied accusations and refused to resign. Mayor Nael said that he abhors corruption and added that necessary action must be taken against it. He also demanded that the whole city administration resign if both accused are unwilling to resign themselves. According to Nael, new information that he received points to the corruption makes it necessary that both deputy mayors face consequences for their actions. (“Kohtla-Järve deputy mayors refuse to resign over corruption allegations,” news.err.ee, 11 October 2022)
GERMANY
Union strikes in Amazon at different locations across Germany
On 11 October, German trade union Verdi announced that workers at nine Amazon distribution centres would strike to pressure the company into multiple agreements. The workers were planning to strike on Amazon’s two-day Prime Early Access Sale so that it would disrupt the company’s profit. The strikes happen at different locations and at different timing, making it difficult for Amazon to stop them. Although Amazon had increased the wages of logistical employees, it was little compared to the rising inflations. The union looks to bargain numerous agreements with these strikes. (“German union calls on Amazon workers to strike during sale,” Reuters, 11 October 2022)
THE UK
Bank of England to keep the finance stable
On 11 October, Bank of England (BOE) proposed to spend up to GBP five billion per day to keep the inflation from rising. This will through purchase of government debt bonds, especially the index-linked gilts to boost UK’s bond market. The market fluctuation was the result of the UK’s recent government budget announcement. Finance Minister Kwasi Kwarteng had announced earlier in September that there would be tax cuts and lot of borrowing to compensate that. The BOE plans to act as a backstop to restore the market. The buying of government bonds is seen as a measure to keep the UK’s finance from becoming unstable. (“Bank of England widens action on financial stability fears,” Deutsche Welle, 11 October 2022)
Heathrow become the busiest airport in Europe again
On 11 October, BBC reported that according to the latest passenger data, Heathrow became the busiest airport in Europe again. Heathrow was dethroned due to the COVID-19 pandemic and was the 10th busiest airport in Europe in 2021. Even though it regained its title as the busiest airport in Europe, Heathrow is still 15 per cent behind its before pandemic level in passenger number. The airport has brought in cap on number of departing passengers to 100,000 per day in July. The cap will end on 29 October. It successfully handled 18 million passengers over summer. Heathrow still face the problem of staff shortage that has led to demands of surging passengers not being met. However, it recovered from the Covid slump and is steadily regaining the passenger flow. (“Heathrow regains crown as Europe's busiest airport, data shows,” BBC, 11 October 2022)
CLIMATE
Austria sue EU on labelling gas and nuclear power as sustainable sources
On 10 September, Austria is suing the EU over labelling gas and nuclear energy as green. The inclusion of gas and nuclear energy as climate-friendly sustainable resource was deemed to be risky by Austria. Austria pointed out that the nuclear power can cause severe harm to the environment such as in the case of Chernobyl and Fukishima nuclear disasters. Austria is trying to garner support among the member nations to pursue a legal challenge against the EU to exclude gas and nuclear power as sustainable investment options. The EU reasons the inclusion gas and nuclear-power as a sustainable energy source can attract investments and also does not cause extreme environmental problems. (“Austria files case over EU's 'green' gas and nuclear label,” Duetsche Welle, 10 October 2022)
War in Ukraine: Day 230
By Rishma Banerjee
War on the Ground
On 11 October, President Zelenskyy addressed the G7 members in a virtual meeting. He said it was impossible to negotiate with Russia unless they toughen their sanctions. Zelenskyy also met with the Staff of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief to discuss information about the situation on the front and the next steps regarding the de-occupation of territories under Russia’s control. The Minister of Internal Affairs, Denys Monastyrskyi, reported on the recent missile strikes by Russia and spoke about the mitigation of the destruction and protection of critical infrastructure facilities.
On 11 October, Russia launched missiles and drones with munitions at Ukraine again, following the recent attacks in Kyiv and 12 other regions on 10 October. Russia's recent attacks resulted in air raid across the country. Government officials requested everyone to store water and energy as it was apprehended that power and water lines might be affected by the missiles.
The Main Directorate of Intelligence of Ukraine’s Defence Ministry informed that Russia had been preparing for the massive missile strikes on Ukraine's civilian infrastructure since the beginning of October. Thus, seven Tu-160 strategic bombers were transferred from Olenya airfield and equipped with Kh-101 missiles. Additionally, six cruise missiles with 40 Kalibr missiles were deployed to Sevastopol. The Directorate alleged that the main aim of Russia was to destroy the thermal power plant there.
Ukraine and Russia successfully negotiated the transfer of the bodies of 62 Ukrainian soldiers. Most of these soldiers were killed in the Olenivka prison, where many Ukrainian prisoners of war had been detained. Both Ukraine and Russia have accused the other of shelling the facility, but Ukraine has denied targeting civilian infrastructure or prisoners of war.
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 11 October, Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov addressed the recent missile attacks in Ukraine. He stated that the initial goals of the special military operation in Ukraine had not changed. Speaking to Rosaya-1, Lavrov criticized Ukraine for not granting citizens identifying as Russian the right to do so. He said: “It should not be a country that’s allowed everything, and whose impunity crosses all boundaries and leads to murders of journalists, political figures, and deputies of the Verkhovnaya Rada.”
On 11 October, President Putin signed a decree extending 2014 anti-sanctions involving a food embargo. In 2014, Putin signed a decree banning food imports from the US, the EU, Norway, Australia, and Canada. Because of the ban, meat and dairy products, fish, vegetables, and fruits from these countries were restricted from entering Russia. In 2015, the ban was extended to Albania, Montenegro, Iceland, Liechtenstein, and Ukraine. Now, as per the signed decree, the ban has been extended till 31 December 2023, to “ensure the security” of Russia.
On 10 October, Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin gave an official update about the repair efforts on the Kerch Bridge. He said that a pillar and the rail track of the bridge has been destroyed by the explosion and will require repair. However, he assured that the damages do not pose any threat to vehicles using the bridge. Sergey Aksyonov had said that the damaged pillars are expected to be repaired by the end of this week, even though earlier the head of Crimea, and the repair work could take up to two months. According to Khusnullin, around 150 people were involved in the clean-up and repair efforts and the asphalt on the damaged part of the bridge had already been successfully removed.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 11 October, Canada announced it would send 40 combat engineers to Poland. This will support Poland’s effort to train Ukraine's forces as a part of its commitment to assist Ukraine's military against the war. The deployment also marks the resumption of training provided by the Canadian Armed Forces to Ukraine's military. Since 2915, over 33,000 military and security personnel have received training from Canada, but the training effort had been paused since February 2022.
On the same day, Germany’s government proposed increase in support to areas struggling to accommodate over 1.1 million refugees that have arrived in the country in 2022. While a considerable section of the refugees come from Syria and Afghanistan, the numbers have been exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the resultant exodus of refugees. Interior Minister, Nancy Fraser said that earlier in the year, the government had allocated federal real estate to set up tents for tens of thousands of refugees but given the current crisis, property for around 4000 more refugees will be provided. She also said that additional financial support will also be given, but the amount has not been declared yet. Moreover, Fraser said that providing good care for refugees from Ukraine was a “big humanitarian effort” and that Germany was expecting more people from Ukraine because of Russia’s recent escalation in Ukraine.
On 10 October, US President Joe Biden reiterated his commitment to Ukraine's war efforts. Following Russia’s recent missile attacks, he pledged more advanced air defence systems. However, he did not provide any other details about what the new pledge might entail. Regarding air defence; he said that it was the primary priority in Ukraine’s defence cooperation with the US.
On the same day, Sweden’s prime minister Magdalena Andersson said that Russia will not be allowed to join the investigation on the causes of leaks in the Nord Stream pipelines. The announcement came after Sweden invited an EU probe to look into the leaks. It also said that the findings of the investigation will be kept confidential.
The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war
On 11 October, Japanese car company Nissan announced that they will withdraw their business from Russia. According to Russia's Industry and Trade Ministry, the company will also sell its factory in St. Petersburg. Russian car manufacturer, AutoVaz will take over the supply of spare parts and maintenance of Nissan cars plying in the country. In a separate statement, Nissan said that the deal with AutoVaz will be finalized soon, and the company will take a loss of around USD 686.5 million.
The IMF released its World Economic Outlook. The report says that global economic growth in 2023 is expected to slow down more than initially. The IMF said that the additional slowdown could be attributed primarily to the effects of the war in Ukraine on the global economy, coupled with a slow recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and a slowdown in China’s economic output. The expansion of the economy in 2023 is expected to be at 2.7 per cent, which is a 6 percent reduction from 2021, and a 3.2 per cent reduction from 2022. The estimate also marks the weakest growth profile since 2001, excluding the 2008 financial crisis and the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic.
On 11 October, UN General Assembly voted against Russia’s call for holding secret ballots to vote on the constitutionality of Russia’s annexation of four regions of Ukraine. With 107 votes in favor, the UNGA decided that the vote deciding on the "illegal so-called referenda" and the "attempted illegal annexation” of Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, LPR, and DPR will be public. 13 countries voted for a secret ballot and 39 countries including Russia and China abstained from voting.
Also on 11 October, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Ravina Shamdasani released a statement about the escalation of Russia’s recent attacks on Ukraine. The timing and locations of the missile attacks have increased concerns that Russia is deliberately targeting critical civilian infrastructure. Shamdasani criticized the attacks and said that the strikes may have violated international humanitarian law. She called on Russia to cease such attacks and ensure that civilian casualties are prevented.
On 10 October, The UN High Commission for Refugees chief, Filippo Grandi also referred to the damages caused to civilian areas in Ukraine and said that as is the nature of war, civilians were paying the highest price. Moreover, he spoke about the refugee situation in Ukraine. Urging for an “all hands on deck approach,” Grandi called on experts, stakeholders, and organizations with the relevant resources to increase their efforts to support their respective government’s plans to accommodate the refugees. He praised the EU’s move to provide Ukrainians fleeing the war with temporary protection permits, allowing them to cross international borders within the EU and avail services where they have “support networks.”
References
“A meeting of the Headquarters of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief was held,” president.gov.ua, 11 October 2022
“Russia Returns Bodies of 62 Ukraine Defenders: Kyiv,” Kyiv Post, 11 October 2022
Adam Schreck,“UN, G7 decry Russian attack on Ukraine as possible war crime,” AP News, 11 October 2022
“The Russians have been planning missile strikes on the Ukrainian capital and infrastructure since the beginning of October,” gur.gov.ua, 10 October 2022
“Lavrov says special operation goals haven’t changed, Ukraine can’t be terrorist state,” TASS, 11 October 2022
“Nissan to Exit Russian Market, Sell Assets to Moscow,” The Moscow Times, 11 October 2022
“Putin extended anti-sanctions decree until 2023,” TASS, 11 October 2022
“Official update given on repairs to Crimean Bridge,” RT, 10 October 2022
Kuba Stezycki and Joanna Plucinska, “Canada to send 40 combat engineers to Poland to train Ukraine soldiers,” Reuters, 11 October 2022
Jules Darmanin, “Biden pledges ‘advanced air defense systems’ to Ukraine after Russian strikes,” POLITICO, 11 October 2022
Kirsten Grieshaber, “Germany struggles to find housing for more than 1M refugees,” AP News, 11 October 2022
“Sweden Nixes Russian Participation In Nord Stream Gas Pipeline Leak Investigation,” rferl.org, 10 October 2022
Yuka Hayashi, “IMF Cuts 2023 Global Growth Forecast, Citing Inflation, War and China Slowdown,” Wall Street Journal, 11 October 2022
“Ukraine: Attack on civilians and infrastructure,” ohchr.org, 11 October 2022
Michelle Nichols, “U.N. publicly rejects Russia's call for secret vote on Ukraine,” Reuters, 11 October 2022
“Ukraine: Russian large-scale strikes are ‘unacceptable escalation’, says Guterres,” news.un.org, 10 October 2022