IN BRIEF
By Madhura S Mahesh, Sai Pranav and Rishma Banerjee

BELARUS
Lukashenko urges to protect critical infrastructure from cyberattacks
On 25 October, in a meeting on cybersecurity, Belarus’s President Aleksandr Lukashenko warned against increasing instances of cyberattacks, which especially target important facilities, government agencies, enterprises and the banking system. Terming the attacks as a form of hybrid warfare, to harm the economy and destabilize society. Lukashenko said that Belarus’s Operations and Analysis Center had been instructed to involve experts and a proposal has been submitted to prepare for counteraction against cyberattacks. He said that Belarus should first understand what infrastructure might be more vulnerable to such attacks. (“Lukashenko calls to ensure security of vital infrastructure against cyber attacks,” BELTA, 25 October 2022)
 
FINLAND
New abortion law introduced
On 26 October, Finland’s Parliament voted for a new law to ease the process for women to get an abortion. The voting ratio for the new abortion law by the MPs was 125:41. One abstained, and 32 were absent from the voting. The law enabled women to abort their pregnancies without the opinion of two doctors. Abortion procedure can be done up to 12 weeks of pregnancy. The law states that a pregnant woman’s request and consent are sufficient to undergo an abortion unlike the rule that allows abortion only if the health of the mother or the foeteus is in danger. While all MPs of the Christian Democrats voted against the new abortion law, MPs from the centre and basic Finns introduced the proposal for the law. (Anne Orjala, “Getting an abortion is getting easier - see how your MP voted,” yle.fi, 26 October, “Parliament approved the new abortion law,” yle.fi, 26 October 2022)

REGIONAL
Belarus’s trade with Russia’s Astrakhan grows to USD 48 million in 2022
On 26 October, BELTA reported on Belarus’s Prime Minister Roman Golovchenko meeting with the Governor of Russia's Astrakhan Oblast Igor Babushkin. Between 2021 and 2022, the trade had grown by 2.5 per cent to more than USD 48 million. Golovchenko said that in trade in agricultural machines grew but identified that there is potential for cooperation in the field of municipal vehicles too. He welcomed the “attractive terms” of an agreement on transhipping and storing large volumes of timber, sawn timber, chemical substances, mineral fertilizers, trucks etc. from Belarus, through ports in the Astrakhan Oblast. Golovchenko and Babushkin also discussed the establishment of a logistic hub within the special economic zone frameworks of these ports. (“Prime minister pleased with growing trade between Belarus, Russia's Astrakhan Oblast,” BELTA, 26 October 2022; “Ways to advance Belarus' cooperation with Russia's Astrakhan Oblast discussed,” BELTA, 26 October 2022; “Belarus to ship timber, chemicals, fertilizers, trucks via Astrakhan ports,” BELTA, 26 October 2022)

Frontex to assist border control in North Macedonia 
On 26 October, Euronews reported that the EU had signed an agreement with North Macedonia on cooperation and management efforts at the country’s borders. The signing of the accord involving EU’s frontier agency, Frontex, was witnessed by European Commission’s President, Ursula von der Leyen, and North Macedonia’s Prime Minister, Dimitar Kovačevski. As per the agreement, Frontex will be able to assist North Macedonia manage their migratory flows, counter illegal immigration and deal with cross-border crime. On this issue, Von der Leyen, who appreciated North Macedonia’s progress for their EU negotiation process said: "I promised you that we would get the Frontex agreement signed and translate it into the Macedonian language... And today we delivered." (“The EU and North Macedonia sign migration agreement,” Euronews, 26 October 2022)

Norway and Russia agree on fish quotas despite the Ukraine war
On 26 October, The Norwegian-Russian Joint Fishery Commission agreed to cod quotas of 566,784 tons in the Barents and Norwegian Sea for 2023. Norway will get a share of 260,782 tons. Russia had agreed to share the Barents Sea fishing if Norway did not impose further sanctions on Russia-owned trawlers to port in northern Norway. The Russian part of the Barents Sea has always been a difficult spot to fish for Norwegians due to military activities of Russia. Commercial fishing was closed off without prior announcement in the Russian areas. The joint commission has enabled easy fishing for the Norwegians and has kept the Barents Sea as one of the best sustainable fishing areas in the world. (Thomas Nilsen, “Norway, Russia seal deal on fish quotas amid growing tensions,” The Barents Observer, 26 October 2022)
 
First LNG Terminal with Estonia direct investment starts operating in Finland
On 26 October, Baltic Times reported that an LNG terminal, where Estonian energy company Alexela has the largest direct investment has started operations in Finland. The terminal which at Finland’s largest port, the HaminaKotka, and is the country’s first LNG terminal to be connected to the national gas network. The LNG cargo arriving at the terminal is sent to the high-pressure Finnish transmission network, which then transfers the LNG through trucks and the Baltic connectorr. The project was started in 2015 and is seeing completing before Europe’s impending energy crisis. On this issue, the Chairman of the Management Board of Alexela AS, Martin Haal applauded the inauguration of the terminal and said: “… not just a coloured dot on the map, but it marks the creation of a new supply chain independent of Russian gas in our region.” (“Estonia's largest direct investment in Finland: Alexela brings the first LNG carrier to Hamina,” The Baltic Times, 26 October 2022) 

UK’s Border Force reports increasing influx of migrants from Albania
On 26 October, UK’s Home Affairs Committee was informed by Border Force offcials that one to two percent of the male population in Albania, accounted for around 10,000 men and an additional 2000 women and children who arrived to UK in small boats. The Home Office's clandestine Channel threat commander, Dan O’Mahoney reported on the increase of Albanian migrants and said that this influx was catalysing both the illegal migration issue and the asylum problem in the UK. He also mentioned how some of these Albanians seeking asylum have include themselves in criminal gangs dealing with Drug smuggling, human trafficking, guns, prostitution. MPs on the Committee were also informed that only four per cent of the total asylum applications have been processed in 2021 and the cost of housing the rest in hotels and detention centres rising to EUR 5.6 per day. (Faye Brown, “'Exponential rise' in Albanian migrants crossing the Channel this year, MPs told,” Sky News, 26 October 2022)

France and the Netherlands plan to exit from the Energy Charter Treaty
On 25 October, Deutsche Welle reported that France and the Netherlands revealed their intention to leave the Energy Charter Treaty (ECT) due to it not coinciding with their climate goals. Spain and Poland defected earlier in 2022, and Italy in 2016 from the ECT. Fossil fuel investors have submitted lawsuits against European countries for changing to renewable energy sources as they will incur losses. The ECT, pressured by litigations, has allowed fossil fuel usage and slowed down the green energy transition in Europe. The energy crisis related to the war in Ukraine also made Europe decide to use coal and reactivate coal power plants. Spain, Italy, Poland, France and the Netherlands do not comply with the usage of fossil fuels as it will increase the CO2 emission and thereby delay their climate goals. (Stuart Braun, “EU states 'revolt' against controversial energy treaty,” Deutsche Welle, 25 October 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
Lithuania and Japan mark 100 years of friendship, vows to increase bilateral cooperation
On 26 October, Lithuania’s Prime Minister, Ingrida Simonyte and Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida met in Tokyo and decided to upgrade their bilateral relations to a strategic partnership. The leaders discussed three main issues. First, marking 100 years of friendship between Lithuania and Japan, a new security dialogue was launched by which knowledge and information about international security issues will be shared. Kishida hailed the success of the "Visa for Life" of SUGIURA Chiune and committed Japan’s support to Lithuania given Russia’s war in Ukraine. He also invited Lithuania to the 2025 Osaka-Kansai Expo where bilateral economic relations would get priority. Second, the two leaders discussed on regional issues alluding to the war in Lithuania’s neighbourhood and condemned Russia’s threat of using nuclear weapons. The issue of China trying to change the status-quo in the Indo Pacific by force was also discussed, and both Japan and Lithuania committed to an “open and free Indo-Pacific.” Third, they reiterated their support for the United Nations and welcomed a restructuring of the UNSC, following Russia’s aggression in Ukraine. (“Japan- Lithuania Summit Meeting and Working Dinner,” mofa.go.jp, 26 October 2022; “Joint Statement on Strategic Partnership between the Government of Japan and the Government of the Republic of Lithuania,” mofa.go.jp, 26 October 2022
 
Chinese centers to be investigated for the illegal treatment of dissidents in the Netherlands
On 26 October, the Netherlands’ Foreign Ministry announced that it would investigate reports on Chinese centers for illegal conduct towards Chinese dissidents in the country. The Chinese government did not inform the Foreign Ministry of the Netherlands about the centers. Services such as renewing Chinese driver's licenses or declaring changes in marital status are legally undertaken by the centers. However, they have been putting the dissident Chinese under pressure to return to China by various heinous means, such as harassment, torture, abuse and threats to the family members and those charged with crimes in China are sent back home to be tried for their crimes. The centers located in Rotterdam and Amsterdam are  directly connected to the police force in the Lishui prefecture of China’s Zhejiang province and Fuzhou city in Fujian province. (“Netherlands probes 'illegal' Chinese police stations,” Deutsche Welle, 26 October 2022)   

War in Ukraine: Day 245
By Madhura S Mahesh

War on the Ground
On 26 October, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are strengthening their positions on the frontline and are decreasing the Russian army’s capabilities by destroying their logistical ability. He said that while there have not been any significant changes, the battle in Donetsk is still going on and is their fiercest one yet.
  
On 26 October, Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk urged Ukrainian refugees to not return back home during winter to avoid stress on energy resources. Previous Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure had stretched the remaining ones causing frequent blackouts to save up for winter. Vereshchu requested the refugees to continue their stay until spring when the demand for energy would decrease drastically and energy infrastructure would be back. 
 
On 26 October, the Security Service of Ukraine (SUB) posted a video on Facebook showing the demolition of a Russian observation post and assault group. This retaliation was conducted by SBU’s Alpha Special Ops Centre in an overnight scouting exercise where the observation and assault group were discovered. 
 
On 26 October, Zaporizhzhia’s Regional Military Administration, Head Oleksandr Starukh reported that 540 people have been kidnapped and captured in the Russian-occupied territories of the Zaporizhzhia region. Starukh further detailed that out of the 540 captured 208 still remain in captivity and the rest have been released. Dniprorudne mayor Yevhen Matveyev and Enerhodar’s first deputy mayor Ivan Samoydiuk are still in captivity, and there has been no update about their whereabouts.  
 
On 26 October, press service of the National Police of Ukarine released the documentation of the 28 Russian stikes in Dontesk. They reported that Russia had shelled 13 settlements in Dontesk targeting civilian and residential buildings. The report outlined that the stikes hit eleven civilian objects, six residential buildings, a coke-chemical plant, a technical school, a garage and farm buildings. The Police reported that Bakhmut was attacked four times and a civilian was killed in one such strike.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 26 October, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu reported on Russia's nuclear force exercise. Shoigu said that "In accordance with the Russian Armed Forces’ training schedule an exercise is being held to practice command and control of the Armed Forces, including the tasks of carrying out a massive nuclear strike by the strategic nuclear forces in retaliation for the enemy’s nuclear strike." In the exercise, the Yars intercontinental ballistic missile and the Sineva ballistic missile were launched along with cruise missiles from two Tu-95MS. The Kremlin website confirmed that the missiles hit all their targets and the set-out tasks for the exercise were completed.

On 26 October, Russia’s Deputy Permanent Representative Dmitry Peskov told the press that Russia presented evidence regarding Ukraine’s plan to use ‘dirty bombs.’ Though he declined to elaborate on the outcome of the session, Peskov expressed that they will continue to bring the attention of the international community to this and hope to stop Kyiv. 
 
On 26 October, Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed his concerns regarding alleged black market weapons sales in Ukraine. At the 51st meeting of The Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) council, Putin said that these black market arms deals encouraged cross-border criminal groups to smuggle weapons to other regions. Putin elaborated on the types of arms being smuggled saying "We are not only talking about small arms. Risks remain that more powerful weapons may fall into the hands of criminals, including portable anti-aircraft missile systems and high-precision weapons." 
 
On 26 October, Russia’s Minister of Defence Sergei Shoigu held talks with Chinese Defence Minister General Wei Fenghe and Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, where the two discussed the matter of Ukraine and Shoigu updated Singh on Russia’s concern regarding Ukraine’s plan to use ‘dirty bombs.’ In the talk with he discussed Russia’s concern on Ukraine’s plan to use ‘dirty bombs.’
 
On 26 October, the Russian Defence Ministry published a report on the special military operation in Ukraine. The Russian Armed Forces have taken down 326 airplanes, 162 helicopters, 2,349 unmanned aerial vehicles, 383 anti-aircraft missile systems, 6,084 tanks and armoured fighting vehicles, 874 combat vehicles with multiple rocket-launching systems, 3,527 field artillery cannons and mortars, and 6,791 units of special military hardware. The Ministry reported that they have curtailed Ukrainian forces in LPR, DPR, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia region from advancing and have destroyed their military posts and equipment. 

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 
On 26 October, Lithuania's Defence Chief Valdemaras Rupšys expressed his disagreement with providing PzH 2000 howitzers and NASAMS air defence system to Ukraines. Rupšys said that they will honour their commitments to NATO, but not at the cost of their security. According to him providing Ukraine with military aid should be replaced by making purchases of new military equipment so that the military capability of Lithuania and its security is not compromised. When Lithuania’s Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis was asked about the military aid, he said the decision will be taken by the State Defence Council but reiterated that any aid given to Ukraine should include military aid. 
 
On the same day, the EU implored its member nations to plan for the collective purchase of military equipment in order to get a better price and replenish their stock of stocks of air and missile defence, ammunition, anti-tank and artillery systems and drones after providing military aid to Ukraine, the sudden rise in demand has led to the equipment becoming more expensive. The head of EU’s diplomatic service's security and defence division Stijn Mols urged member states to keep their differences aside and come together to maintain the security of the continent. According to Mols European investment in defence was lacking when compared to the US or China.
  
On 26 October, AP News reported on the recent fall in prices of gas and electricity in Europe. It outlined the fall was due to warmer climate and the filling up of gas reserves by European countries through alternative sources after Russia decreased gas supply. According to energy experts from the Center for European Studies the volatility of energy markets due to new sanctions and policies and the unknowns regarding the demand from Asia might change this reduction. They also cautioned against a potential backlash from the people during winter if they are asked to limit their energy consumption.  

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war
On 26 October, Latvian Speaker of the Saeima Ināra Mūniece was given a state award “the Order of Prince Yaroslav the Wise, II degree, in the First Parliamentary Summit of the International Crimea Platform in Zagreb, the capital of Croatia” from Ukraine. The decree was issued by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky saying that the award was for “significant personal accomplishments.”  The awardee added that it was in great honour and a high commendation for Latvia to receive constant support from Ukraine and that Latvia would sustain its help in giving Russia “the just punishment for the crimes it has committed.”
 
On 26 October, Saudi Aramco reported that the oil markets are adapting to the sanctions imposed on Russia by redirecting crude flows to Asia from Europe and other players switching their production. The CEO of Saudi Aramco Amin Nasser said that there is a realignment that is occurring, Saudi Aramco said that the Russians are able to place their crude in various markets and that the discounts they are making use of are helping them overcome the challenges in securing insurance and shipping for oil. Adding that there are logistical issues, the head of Aramco said that Russia is able to handle these issues with the right discounts. 
 
On 26 October, Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh held talks with Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu. The meeting was requested by Shoigu to address Russia’s concerns regarding Ukraine’s plan to use ‘dirty bombs.’ Singh reaffirmed India’s stance that the conflict should be resolved through diplomatic talks and that the nuclear option should not be considered by both sides.    
 
On 26 October, Mercedes announced its deportation from Russia, becoming the latest  Western company to pull out from the country. The German-based firm halted its manufacturing and exporting in early March, and has said that it “will withdraw” from the Russian market and sell shares to a local investor. This pull-out comes after Ford confirmed on 26 October that it had finalised a deal to leave the Russian market as well. Along with Japan’s Nissan leaving the market and experiencing a USD 700 million loss, the chief financial officer of Mercedes added that this exit would not have any real effect on the company’s profits.

References
“Ukraine needs victory over Russia, in particular in energy sphere – address of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy,” president.gov.ua, 26 October 2022
“Ukrainian Refugees Should Not Return in Winter – Deputy Prime Minister,” Kyiv Post, 26 October 2022 
“SBU shows raw footage of sniper team destroying Russian observation post,” Ukrinform, 26 October 2022 
“208 people remain in Russian captivity in Zaporizhzhia region,” Ukrinform, 26 October 2022
“Malyar: Armed Forces of Ukraine holding active defense in Kherson region,” Ukrinform, 26 October 2022
“Casualties reported as Russia launches 28 strikes on Donetsk region,” Ukrinform, 26 October 2022 
“Russia to take vigorous steps in response to Kiev’s threats to use 'dirty bomb' — Kremlin,” Tass 26 October 
“Putin warns of danger coming from Ukraine’s black market weapons sales,” Tass, 26 October 2022
“Russian and Chinese defence ministers discuss situation in Ukraine,” eng.mil.ru, 26 October 2022
“Russian and Indian defence ministers hold telephone talks,” eng.mil.ru, 26 October 2022
“Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation in Ukraine,”  eng.mil.ru, 26 October 2022
“Russia holds exercise to practice massive retaliatory nuclear strike — Shoigu,” Tass, 26 October 2022
"Lithuania should not give howitzers, anti-air systems to Ukraine, says defence chief,” lrt.it, 26 October 2022
David McHugh “Gas crunch eases in Europe — but the respite might not last,” AP News, 26 October 2022
“EU urges members to coordinate arms purchases,” swissinfo.ch, 26 October 2022
“Russian bombings of civilian infrastructure raise cost of Ukraine's recovery: IMF,” Reuters, 26 October 2022
“Telephonic conversation between Raksha Mantri Shri Rajnath Singh & Defence Minister of Russia Mr Sergei Shoigu,” pib.gov.in, 26 October 2022
“Global Oil Flows Shift as Russia’s Hit By Sanctions, Says Aramco,” Bloomberg, 26 October 2022
“Latvian Saeima Speaker gets Ukrainian state award,” eng.lsm.lv, 26 October 2022
“Mercedes-Benz becomes latest Western company to pull out of Russia,” BBC, 26 October 2022