War in Ukraine: Day 292
By Madhura S Mahesh
War on the Ground
On 12 December, NEC Ukrenergo (Ukraine’s electricity transmission system operator) reported on capacity deficit and hindrance in the full generation of thermal energy in Ukraine’s thermal power plants due to Russian attacks. It added: “Due to the complexity of the damage, the work takes longer than expected, also being complicated by poor weather conditions (wind gusts and wet snow).”
On 12 December, the Ukrainian Sea Ports Authority (USPA) reported that two operational ports have resumed food exports from the Black Sea ports in Odesa Oblast. USPA Head Oleksiy Vostrikov said that due to the drone attacks on 10 December the port of Odesa is still non-operational but the ports of Chornomorsk and Pivdennyi have resumed operations. Vostrikov added that the ports are being powered with alternative energy sources.
On 11 December, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy held talks with French President Emmanuel Macron, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and US President Joe Biden. Zelenskyy and Macron discussed issues relating to energy, defence, diplomacy, and economy. In the call with Erdoğan, Zelenskyy discussed on the possible expansion of the Black Sea grain export corridor. Whereas with Biden, the focus was on the ground situation in Ukraine with a special focus on the energy infrastructure amid increased Russian missile attacks. Zelenskyy stressed the importance of air defence and requested Biden for US support in protections of civilians and infrastructure.
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 12 December, Russia’s Museum of Air Defense Forces Director and Military Yuri Knutov shared his view on the Russian Armed Force’s future deployment to Slavyansk and Kramatorsk. According to Knutov currently, Russian Forces are focusing on the battles in Artemovsk and Maryinka which are key defence areas of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. He added that if Russian forces are able to take control of Artemovsk and Maryinka it will open the doors for the Russians to take over Slavyansk and Kramatorsk. Knutov said: “Battles that are taking place now, although positional, are of strategic importance," for the Russian Armed Forces.
On 12 December, the LPR Human Rights Commissioner Viktoria Serdyukova reported that the LPR People’s Militia personnel were tortured in Ukrainian captivity. Serdyukova said that when the bodies of the personnel received from Ukraine through the exchange were examined, visible signs of torture were observed which was later confirmed by forensic analysis. She added how: “Forensic experts confirmed later that burns, fractures, gunshot wounds, and severed body parts.” Serdyukova also accused the international organisations of covering up “criminal actions of official Kiev” on prisoners who are subjected to physical abuse by Ukrainian forces.
On 12 December, Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Vershinin stressed on re-working the Black Sea Grain deal to maintain food security in Asia, Africa and Latin America. Vershinin pointed out the scarcity in supply of grains to these continents and are instead being delivered to “well-developed and well-off countries.” He added that the parallel agreement between Russia and the UN regarding the uninterrupted exports of fertilizers and agricultural products has not advanced nor achieved any concrete results.
On the same day, Vershinin highlighted Russia's continued dialogue with IAEA to ensure protection of Zaporizhzhia plant from Ukraine attacks. Vershinin added on the discussion on ensuring “…peaceful nuclear facility won’t pose any threat to civilians both in the region and elsewhere.”
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 12 December, Ukraine’s Centre for Strategic Communication and Information Security released an analysis of online media coverage of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in the Baltic States and how it is affected by Russian propaganda. The analysis was based on data collected by a Ukrainian startup LetsData and Detector Media NGO in September and October. The analysis found that Lithuanian media covered the conflict the most between the three countries and that Estonia covered it the least. It also found that the trend in Baltic online media reflected the trend followed by European media when it comes to topics covered in September and October. The analysis showed that Baltic media covers Russian propaganda by reproducing statements made by Russian President Vladimir Putin and other ministries and officials. It also saw that the Baltic media also cities Russian media like TASS, and RIA Novosti.
On 12 December, Estonia’s e-Governance Academy (eGA) announced its new military cyber facility in Ukraine to help the Ukrainian military combat Russian cyber-attacks. The new facility was built with the help of the Ukrainian military and Estonia’s CybExer Technologies as a part of the EU’s support to Ukraine. According to eGA official Hannes Astok, the new facility will not only help in improving Ukranian military’s cybersecurity skills but also build the “cyber resilience of Ukraine.” CybExer official Aare Reintam added that this new facility will help equip the Ukrainian military “with the best cyber range.”
On 12 December, Poland’s Deputy Foreign Minister Pawel Jablonski objected on giving security guarantees to Russia. Jablonski said that Russia should not expect such guarantees and said that considering it is a “strategic mistake.” This comes amid the EU Foreign Ministers’ meeting and calls from the former and current heads of EU member nations such as former German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron.
On 12 December, EU Foreign Council’s High Representative Josep Borrell said that the EU Foreign Ministers could not come to a consensus on the ninth package of sanctions against Russia. Borrell added that the package is expected to be finalised by 18 December. He mentioned the minister’s approval for two of the proposed sanctions in the new package. One, extending the list of sanctioned individuals to 200, including Russian politicians in the Duma, the Federation Council and the judiciary. Two, sanctioning the news outlets and organisations for information manipulation.
The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war
On 12 December, the International Energy Agency (IEA) published a report on how the EU can avoid gas shortages. It stated that the EU will face a shortage of around 30 billion cubic meters of natural gas in 2023 due to the reduced import of Russian natural gas. The report focuses on how the EU can avoid this shortage by adopting some practical actions. The IEA proposes that Europe can invest more to increase energy efficiency, renewables, installations of heat pumps, boost gas supplies and promote energy saving. The IEA acknowledges that the EU and its members have started and made “impressive progress” in 2022 on these recommendations. The IEA also recommends measures to further simplify the permit process for renewables, change tax laws that penalise electrification and expansion of existing energy efficiency programs.
On 11 December, Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said that the impact of the EU sanctions and price cap on Russian seaborne crude oil has not yet been registered. Prince Abdulaziz also said that “…we see a state of uncertainty in implementation." He considers the price cap to be a “tool created for political purposes” and added that it is not clear if these purposes could be achieved. Prince Abdulaziz said that the impact of the sanctions has not yet been realised because of the uncertainties regarding China’s COVID-19 policies and the measures taken by Central banks to control inflation.
On 12 December, the UN reported on UN Aid Chief Martin Griffiths four-day schedule to Ukraine. Starting on 12 December, Griffiths along with the under-secretary-general for humanitarian affairs and emergency relief coordinator will visit Mykolaiv and Kherson to asses the damage and repair works of energy facilities hit by Russian missiles.
References
“Destruction caused by Russian missiles hinders use of TPPs at full capacity - operator,” Ukrinform, 12 December 2022
“Food export resumes from Odesa ports after power outage disruptions,” The Kyiv Independent, 12 December 2022
“We are doing everything so that the aggressor state does not have a single string of Ukrainian society to pull - address of the President,” president.gov.ua, 11 December 2022
“Volodymyr Zelenskyy had a telephone conversation with Joseph Biden,” president.gov.ua, 12 December 2022
“Kherson under massive Russian attack: 2 killed, 5 injured,” Ukrinform, 12 December 2022
“Kherson’s residential district struck with Russian artillery, casualties reported,” Ukrinform, 12 December 2022
“The military expert explained the strategy for the exit of the Russian Armed Forces to Slavyansk and Kramatorsk,” Lenta.ru, 12 December 2022
“Official says injuries on LPR servicemen’s bodies mean torture by Ukrainian forces,” Tass, 12 December 2022
“Russian diplomat says grain deal needs adjusting to ensure supplies to African nations,” Tass, 12 December 2022
"Russia in talks with IAEA to prevent Zaporozhye plant from posing any threat — envoy,” Tass, 12 December 2022
“Russia has no right to security guarantees – Poland,” RT, 12 December 2022
“Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia: what Baltic countries write about Ukraine and how it is influenced by Russian
propaganda,” Ukrinform, 12 December 2022
“Sweden says new military aid package to Ukraine will be 50% bigger than the previous one,” NEWS.am, 12 December 2022
Joe Saballa “Estonia Builds Ukraine Military Cyber Facility to Fend Off Russian Hackers,” The Defense Post, 12 December 2022
“The Secretary General of the Council of Europe calls on the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia to comply with the resolutions of the ECHR,” coe.int, 12 December 2022
“Foreign Affairs Council: Press remarks by High Representative Josep Borrell after the meeting,” eeas.europa.eu, 12 December 2022
“How the European Union can avoid natural gas shortages in 2023,” iea.org, 12 December 2022
Aziz El Yaakoubi “Saudi energy minister sees no clear results yet from Russia price cap,” Reuters, 11 December 2022
“UN aid chief to visit Kherson on Ukraine trip amid power outages,” Reuters, 12 December 2022
IN BRIEF
By Sai Pranav
DENMARK
Inflation recorded at 8.9 per cent in November
On 12 December, the Local dk reported that Denmark’s consumer goods and services price had averaged 8.9 per cent in November. The inflation fell by 1.2 per cent from October to November. The annual cost of living for a Danish Family's increased by more than DKK 40,000 due to inflation. According to the report, increase in energy prices affects the prices of consumer goods and services. Higher inflation has caused lower purchasing power among the Danish consumers. Although inflation has fallen in November, it is still considered higher than the normal average calculated year-on-year. (“Inflation down in Denmark but forecasts tentative for 2023,” the Local dk, 12 December 2022)
LATVIA
Foreign trade turnover exceeds 2021 figures
On 12 December, Latvia’s Central Statistical Bureau (CSB) published provincial data that revealed Latvia’s foreign trade turnover to be EUR 4.2 billion in October 2022. The export goods in Latvia came up to EUR 1.82 billion in October and the imported goods were worth EUR 2.8 billion. However, compared to October 2021, foreign trade exports have worsened from 45.7 to 43.4 per cent. Latvia’s total foreign trade turnover from January to October amounted to EUR 39.19 billion, 33.3 per cent higher than in 2021. The export value increased by 30.7 per cent and the imports value grew by 35.3 per cent. Latvia exports the most to Lithuania, Estonia, Germany and Sweden and imports from Lithuania, Estonia, Germany and Poland. (“Latvia's foreign trade gap widened in October,” eng.lsm.lv, 12 December 2022)
THE UK
Five fisheries project receives funding from the Environment Department
On 12 December, the UK’s Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Department announced GBP 3.5 million for five fisheries and marine habitat protection research projects across the UK. Plymouth Enterprise Ltd University in partnership with Angling Trust and Professional Boatman’s Association collect data on excessive fishing of vulnerable species such as sharks, black bream and rays. The data help marine species protect from being exploited. Bangor University in collaboration with the British Geological Survey, Orkney Fisheries Association and Welsh Fisherman’s Association looked into climate change impacts on common whelk. They were assigned GBP 400, 000 for the research. The Fisheries Minister said: “A proper understanding of important marine species is vital if we are to manage our fisheries sustainably and safeguard the fishing and seafood sector for future generations.” The research projects are a part of the Fisheries Industry Science Partnership (FISP) scheme, a GBP 100 million UK Seafood government fund concerning research on the UK fisheries and seafood industries. (“Over £3.5m awarded to sustainable fishing projects as new funding round opens,” gov.uk, 12 December 2022)
Conservative Party faces backlash sharing misleading information
On 12 December, the UK Statistics Authority (UKSA) condemned the Conservative Party for falsely claiming that the UK had secured GBP 800 billion from new free trade deals with 70 countries since 2016 Brexit. The UKSA’s Chair, Sir Robert Chote, countered the Conservative Intergovernmental Relations Minister Michael Gove’s claims of the UK gaining GBP 800 billion. Chote said that the claim was shared without any proof or sources. He pointed out that many deals with the EU and non-EU states that the Conservative party had mentioned in their claim began before the UK exited from the EU. The Scottish National party’s Minister, Drew Hendry, criticized Gove for spreading misleading and incorrect information through social media. Hendry said: “Brexit has, and will continue to be, an unmitigated disaster for households and businesses across these islands, reducing Scottish exports by a staggering £2.2bn in the last year alone.” (Peter Walker, “Watchdog reprimands Tories over £800bn post-Brexit trade deals claim,” The Guardian, 12 December 2022)
REGIONAL
Eurostat: Poland hosts the highest number of Ukrainian refugees
On 12 December, Eurostat found the figure of Ukrainians seeking asylum in Latvia since the start of the Ukraine war to be the lowest. Poland topped the list with the most temporary protection status given 54, 520 fleeing Ukrainians among the EU member states in October. It was seconded by Germany with 37, 595, followed by Italy, Romania and Bulgaria. The number of Ukrainians receiving temporary protection status came down to 22 of 27 EU member states since September 2022. According to the figures, Poland provided temporary protection status to 1.01 million Ukrainian refugees, while Latvia offered to only 35,500 Ukrainians, from March to October 2022. (“1,700 refugees arrived from Ukraine in October,” eng.lsm.lv, 12 December 2022)
The EU provides EUR 220 million to help Turkish border control
On 12 December, the European Commission approved a EUR 220 million aid package to boost Turkey’s eastern border control. The package aims to help refugees in Turkey with basic needs, socio-economic support for the most vulnerable and border management. The aid comes as part of the EU’s June 2021 package which aimed at assisting refugees in Turkey from 2021 to 2023. The EUR 220 million aid package will fund new equipment such as surveillance masts, cameras and lightning systems to improve Turkey’s border control with Iran and Iraq. The fund also helps Turkey to train officials in border management technology usage, migration law, fundamental rights, and response to large-scale mixed migration. (“EU adopts new programmes in support to refugees and border management in Türkiye worth over €1.2 billion,” ec.europa.eu, 12 December 2022)
INTERNATIONAL
Finland’s Foreign Trade Minister visits the US to strengthen bilateral relations
On 12 December, Finland’s Foreign Trade and Development Cooperation Minister Ville Skinnari visit Texas and Washington DC from 12 to 16 December with a trade mission team consisting of businesses and research organizations. Skinnari will sign a Mutual Cooperation Statement with Texas Governor Greg Abbott during the visit. He said: “The purpose of the visit is to promote trade and investment, increase cooperation in high-tech fields and support the networking of research entities.” The trade mission team will look into digitalization, the green economy, artificial intelligence and high-performance computing during its visit to Texas. In the upcoming visit to Washington DC, Skinnari aims to strengthen the bilateral relations between the US and Finland, supply chain security and cooperation in the technological sector. (“Finland strengthens trade relations in increasingly important US market,” valtioneuvosto.fi, 12 December 2022)
The EU supports Niger’s fight against armed terrorism
On 12 December, the European Council approved the creation of a Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) military partnership mission with Niger to combat armed terrorist groups. The CSDP will help Niger to contain the threat emanating from the armed terrorist group within itself and protect the people. The Nigerien Armed Forces’ ability will also be bolstered through the partnership. The EU military partnership mission to Niger (EUMPM Niger) will support the creation of the Centre for Training Armed Forces Technicians. The EU will provide training and advice to combat terrorism within Niger and ensure peace and security within the region. The cost of the EUMPM Niger will be EUR 27.3 million. (“Niger: EU establishes a military partnership mission to support the country in its fight against terrorism,” consilium.europa.eu, 12 December 2022)
James Cleverly address highlights the course of UK’s foreign policy
On 12 December, the UK’s Foreign Secretary James Cleverly addressed the Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office on UK’s foreign policy. Cleverly said that the UK has partnered up with the US, France and 50 other countries to fight for human rights and adopted the Universal Declaration of Human Rights at the UNGA. The UK wants Brazil, India, Japan and Germany as permanent members of the UNSC, along with permanent African representation. According to Cleverly, the UK will stand with Ukraine and against Russia in the ongoing war. He said that the UK’s future influence will depend on its relations with the countries in the Commonwealth, the African Union and the ASEAN. He said: “The UK must work with our international allies and new partners to sustain the best of this achievement, which seeks to protect every country and create the setting for everyone to prosper.” (“British foreign policy and diplomacy: Foreign Secretary's speech, 12 December 2022,” gov.uk, 12 December 2022)