GP Short Notes # 929, 25 June 2025
What happened?
On 24 June, in the NATO summit, Trump cast ambiguity on the US's commitment to NATO’s mutual defence clause, Article 5. He called it “depends on your definition.” This comes after months of warning and criticism for European allies to step up their defence spending. NATO members have pledged to increase spending to five per cent of GDP by 2035. The summit also focused more on Ukraine and growing concerns about Russia’s future threat potential. In response, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte expressed full confidence in the US commitment to the alliance's Article 5 mutual defence clause.
Rutte emphasised his confidence on both Trump and the US leadership. He also warned that it is “unthinkable” for Russia, with a much smaller economy, to outproduce NATO militarily, urging allies to ramp up defence spending. Rutte also highlighted the long-standing point of tension within the alliance, but recalled positively that the US commitment to NATO was not to be in doubt.
What were the key statements and pledges from European allies?
On the same day, EU Foreign Policy Chief Kaja Kallas urged member states to boost defence spending. She stressed that while Ukraine may not be the summit's top agenda item, it remains Europe’s main priority, and greater investment in defence is critical to countering Russian aggression and pushing for peace. Kallas praised Ukraine’s innovative defence industry and emphasized the importance of closer collaboration. She also reaffirmed support for Ukraine’s EU ambitions ahead of the upcoming European Council summit. Similarly, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen declared that Europe had undergone a fundamental awakening in its defence posture due to the war and called the summit a turning point for setting new defence spending goals.
To add to the summit, Germany’s government announced expansion of the military with the addition of 10,000 new troops and 1,000 civilian staff towards a larger defence push. The 2025 defence budget of Germany plans major investments in air defence and projects a massive increase in defence spending, expected to EUR 152.8 billion by 2029. Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz pledged to transform the Bundeswehr into Europe's strongest army, with Pistorius noting that Germany could ultimately require up to 60,000 additional troops. While the UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced a new military aid package for Ukraine funded by GBP 70 million to directly supply weapons. The aid includes 350 British-made ASRAAM air defense missiles, retrofitted for ground launch in just three months, and deployed via five additional Raven launch systems. The package will form part of the UK’s record GBP 4.5 billion in annual military support to Ukraine, which includes prior deals for thousands of air defence missiles and expanded drone production.