Review

Review
Brexit: Preparing for the Worst Case

Sukanya Bali
7 October 2019
Photo Source: www.express.co.uk

This review focuses on four major issues – security, transportation, fisheries and citizenship - which were not fully attended in the Operation Yellowhammer report.

How prepared is UK to meet the fallouts of a no-deal Brexit, and how comprehensive is the Operation Yellowhammer, the contingency plan?

The British government was forced to publish the report that looked into the worst-case scenario of leaving EU. The “Operation Yellowhammer”  report tries to highlight the ‘worst-case-planning-assumptions’ pertaining to a no-deal Brexit and brings attention to the scenarios that could emerge with a no-deal Brexit. 
However, the six-page document failed to brief some of the serious issues which might create a ruckus in the UK after Brexit. The report consisted of clauses covering major problems including rising prices, disruption of food and medicine supply, and other basic societal issues.  

Security
Clause 10 states that “the Law enforcement data and information shared will be disrupted between the UK and the EU.” The data-sharing mechanism ensured quicker criminal prosecution and vetting of people entering the UK. Post no-deal Brexit, inability to use European arrest warrant and passenger databases, would increase the risk that criminals could come into the country.
In the absence of such a data-sharing mechanism, the UK would be dependent on the Interpol system to manage its interstate civil-security concerns. But the criminal database of Interpol and the working is not as efficient and might cause delays in prosecution compared to the system currently prevalent with EU member states.
Further, the report puts little emphasis on the territorial security of the UK. After its divorce with the EU, the UK may find itself in a precarious situation. Political uncertainty could give birth to national security issues unless careful planning is done. The report under-addresses these concerns. Ideally, the no-deal Brexit may lead to an increase in economic spending, political regulation and social escalation within the country. The report does not account for these scenarios. 

Transportation
Clause 3 states that ‘Heavy Goods Vehicle’ travelling via Channel Straits could face maximum delays for 1.5 -2.5 days before crossing the border. The flow rate of HGVs could be reduced to ‘40-60 per cent’ of current levels on day-one of Brexit. However, these delays and congestion that would likely ensue Brexit, articulated in the document, is just the tip of the iceberg.
The delays are likely to increase the cost of transit, in addition to disrupting the path of around 85 per cent of the road transport sector. The delays at the port will cause disruption to global supply chains. Perishable goods would get spoiled in delays at the check-posts. Business continuity will evidently be ruptured until a new order is put in place.
Clause 4 states that immigration checks at transit points of St Pancras and Dover may lead to ‘passenger delays’ and further says that ‘it is likely that delays will occur for UK arrivals and departure at EU airports and ports. 
The Belfast- Dublin Enterprise line between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland that carries passengers and freight across borders would be disrupted. It awaits an uncertain future, as the UK government has not been able to give a solution to the Irish border problem or the backstop. Delays in transit across the channel tunnel will disrupt the everyday lives and would agitate the population and kindle protests in the country.
Aviation will be adversely affected. UK-licensed airliners are a party to the multilateral agreement that gives the airlines the right to fly to and from the EU. Upon no-deal Brexit, the UK airliners will cease to benefit from the agreement. Therefore, a divorced UK will need to negotiate bilateral deals for its airliners to fly to and from other countries including the EU member countries. 
A no-deal Brexit would also prevent the UK motor license holders from driving to the other EU countries

Fishing
According to the Common Fisheries Policy, the European fishing fleets are given equal access to all EU member's coastal waters. This would come to an end. Clause 19, of the forcefully published report, states that ‘282 EU and EEA nations fisheries vessels’ will be affected after the Brexit. Fishing by these EU vessels in UK territorial waters would become illegal after Brexit. The clause also suggests the possibility of ‘clashes’ between fishing vessels. 
After the Brexit, UK’s legislation will regulate the fisheries law industry-exclusive of the EU nations. The law will also deal with illegal fishing activity, maritime risk, illegal immigration, smuggling, and sea border violation, which may nevertheless disturb the current social discourse.
However, preventing 282 vessels from fishing would also result in extreme shortages of fish in the market and thereby escalate prices. A government memo leaked to the BBC said, there are just 12 ships to monitor a space three times the size of the UK. Operation Yellowhammer overlooks the potential impact a no-deal Brexit could have on the income and daily lives of Fishing communities. The report also does not evaluate the ability of the coastal agencies to manage the contingencies that could arise in the event of no-deal Brexit.   

Citizenship
EU Citizenship of UK nationals is one of the important concerns. Clause 11 of the report says that ‘UK nationals will lose their EU Citizenship’ and goes on to say that “all member states have now published a legislative proposal, but not all have passed legislation to secure rights for UK nationals”.
In a no-deal scenario, uncertainty looms around the rights of EU citizens in Britain and UK citizens in the EU. It is the discretion of individual member countries to decide on rights and privileges to be given to UK citizens. There is no clear legislation in place to secure the rights for nationals, post-Brexit. The status given to individuals will further affect their job security and access to employment. In addition, the effect on the job market owing to no-deal Brexit would that people might also lose jobs due to a lack of policies governing employment. 
The absence of clarity in citizenship and social security of UK nationals in the EU and vice-versa might lead to the harassments of individuals. The report does not delve into the complexities of the issues at hand, giving the people only an incomplete picture.
Additionally, the issues of licensing, permits, access to healthcare, judicial rights, etc are not given sufficient emphasis in the operation yellowhammer report.  The ups and downs, twists and turns are the part and parcel of the Brexit narrative now. 
The report does not reveal the complete picture of the worst-case scenarios of no-deal Brexit or viable solutions to address several areas of concern
 


PREVIOUS COMMENTS

October 2026 | CWA # 2320

Advik Sunanda Mohan

Perpetuation of Food Insecurity and Uneven Progress
October 2026 | CWA # 2317

Dattesh Parulekar 

Latin America (Jul-Sep 2026):
The US-China big power play, High stakes Brazilian elections, and India's increased engagement
October 2026 | CWA # 2316

R Vidya

Africa (Jul-Sep 2026)
Conflicts, Elections, Piracy, Security and Critical Minerals
October 2026 | CWA # 2315

Athar Zafar

Central Asia and South Caucasus (Jul-Sep 2026):
The SCO summit, Central Asia-South Korea summit, Kazakhstan's new constitution and elections, and Trade between Armenia and Azerbaijan
October 2026 | CWA # 2313

Ashik J Bonofer

Southeast Asia (Jul-Sep 2026):
Fallouts of the US-Iran War, South China Sea dispute with China, Political unrest, and Inter-connected environmental issues
October 2026 | CWA # 2312

Ramya B

Russia (Jul-Sep 2026):
Elections, Drone warfare, Macroeconomic stagnations and Global summits
October 2026 | CWA # 2311

Shreya Upadhyay

The United States (Jul-Sep 2026):
Trade deal with India, Meetings on Ukraine, Missing Iran Ceasefire and Trump-Xi summit
October 2026 | CWA # 2310

Lakshmi Karlekar

China and the World (Jul-Sep 2026):
Xi-Trump summit, Taiwan tensions, South China Sea contestations, Strengthening the SCO and Cautious rapprochement with India
October 2026 | CWA # 2305

Advik Sunanda Mohan

The Wildfires in Indonesia:
Environmental Drivers, Governmental Impasse and a Regional Crisis
October 2026 | CWA # 2292

Glynnis Winona B

Brazil Elections 2026:
Far-Right Surge, "Re-Democratisation" and Foreign-Policy Realignment
October 2026 | CWA # 2280

Lekshmi MK

Ocean State Report:
Five takeaways on Ocean warming, Marine heatwaves, Polar amplification and Risks for coastal communities
October 2026 | CWA # 2273

Akshath Kaimal

War returns to Tigray:
Renewed violence, Broken peace agreement and a Humanitarian crisis
September 2026 | CWA # 2272

Namrata L Ghanghatkar

The US Consumer Price Index Report:
Why does almost everything trace back to the dollar? Who pays for it?
September 2026 | CWA # 2271

Urja R Kudalkar

Femicide in Afghanistan:
Who are the victims and perpetrators? What causes the gender-based violence? Is Taliban only to blame?
September 2026 | CWA # 2270

Urja R Kudalkar

Militant groups in Iraq:
Who are they? Where do they fight? And what is their endgame?
September 2026 | CWA # 2264

Sreemaya Nair

The SCO Summit in Bishkek:
Four takeaways on rejecting sanctions on Iran, de-dollarisation, and emphasis on territorial integrity
September 2026 | CWA # 2259

Aparna A Nair

The Trial of Joshua Wong:
What are the charges? Why did he plead guilty now?
August 2026 | CWA # 2256

Namrata L Ghanghatkar, Priyanka Makhijani and Urja R Kudalkar

Lake Ontario
SpaceX hits triple digits:
August 2026 | CWA # 2254

Namrata L Ghanghatkar

The US-Canada tariff tensions:
How did the trade deal end up stuck in limbo?
August 2026 | CWA # 2253

Akshath Kaimal

The case against Meta:
A historic settlement, global action against social media platforms and implementation challenges
August 2026 | CWA # 2252

Namrata L Ghanghatkar

The US and North Korea:
A brief history, Trump-Kim Summits and the new gamble
August 2026 | CWA # 2251

Adwaith Sankar

Kim Jong Un:
Internal Consolidation and External Realignment
August 2026 | CWA # 2236
CW Newsmakers
Sheikh Hasina, Settler Violence in West Bank, Heat Waves in Northeast Asia...
August 2026 | CWA # 2235

Adwaith Sankar

Southeast Asia (April-June 2026)
Economic headwinds, Internal friction, and Contrasting domestic developments
August 2026 | CWA # 2232

Dattesh D Parulekar

Latin America (Apr-Jun 2026):
The 'Right' Electoral Tilt, Upswing in Venezuela-India relations, and Argentina's Energy Rise
August 2026 | CWA # 2222

Namrata L Ghanghatkar, Priyanka Makhijani and Urja R Kudalkar

Peru's new President Netanyahu's Washington visit
US Senate bill against Russia | Ukraine and Patriot missiles | China's PLA 99th anniversary
July 2026 | CWA # 2217

Namrata L Ghanghatkar, Priyanka Makhijani, Urja R Kudalkar

The Berlin Pride attack
Zelensky's US Visit I Japan's Earthquake
July 2026 | CWA # 2216

Manikranth Chakravarthula

The Houthis:
Origins, Ethnic makeup, Political structure, Geographical footprint and External support
July 2026 | CWA # 2211

Priyanka Makhijani

AI's Rogue Agent Breach:
Recurring Patterns, Gaps in the AI safety rules and the AI rivalry
July 2026 | CWA # 2210

Adwaith Sankar

ASEAN Regional Forum:
Six Takeaways on Issues, Limitations and Opportunities
July 2026 | CWA # 2199

Preetha Renganarayanan

The SDG Annual Report 2026:
Six takeaways on a decade of SDG monitoring, global progress, and key challenges
July 2026 | CWA # 2197

Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella

The US-Iran War, Week 20:
Renewed Strikes, Collapsed MoU and the Blockade of the Strait
July 2026 | CWA # 2195

Radhika M Agarwal

July 2026 | CWA # 2189

Dhivya KM

Five takeaways on Global growth, AI, and Economic resilience
July 2026 | CWA # 2184

Deb Dutta

Four takeaways on Forced returns, Collapsing protection, Protracted crises
July 2026 | CWA # 2180

Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella

Iran after Ali Khamenei
Institutional resilience, Anti-American sentiment and an Unresolved conflict
July 2026 | CWA # 2177

Deb Dutta

Economic Security, Artificial Intelligence and Energy Resilience
June 2026 | CWA # 2167

Lakshmi Venugopal Menon

Fragile De-escalation amid Persistent Volatility
June 2026 | CWA # 2159

Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella

The US-Iran MoU
Renewed strikes, Persistent disagreements, and a Fragile Agreement
May 2026 | CWA # 2124

Glynnis Winona B

The Crisis in Cuba:
The US Sanctions, Energy Crisis, and Economic Instability
May 2026 | CWA # 2117

Lekshmi MK

Arctic cooperation, Climate diplomacy, and Trade diversification
May 2026 | CWA # 2116

Yesasvi Koganti

Deepening Energy, AI, Defence, and Maritime Cooperation
May 2026 | CWA # 2114

Glynnis Winona B

What makes the UAE a global player?
Explaining the Governance, Economy, People, and Strategic Influence of a Small Middle Eastern State
May 2026 | CWA # 2091

Brighty Ann Sarah

Conflicts in the Middle East:
Escalating Israeli Aggression in Lebanon I UAEs Covert Manoeuvres
May 2026 | CWA # 2090

Brighty Ann Sarah

The US-Iran War, Week Ten:
Fraying Ceasefire, Renewed Negotiations and the Risk of a Stalemate
May 2026 | CWA # 2088

Nithin V

King Charles's US Visit:
Emphasis on strong bilateral relations, democratic values and security cooperation
May 2026 | CWA # 2086

Aishal Hab Yousuf

UAE's Exit from OPEC:
Implications for the Middle East and the Energy Market
May 2026 | CWA # 2083

Brighty Ann Sarah

The US-Iran War, Week Nine:
Deadlocked Negotiations, Competing Agendas and Domestic Pressure
April 2026 | CWA # 2079

Aishal Hab Yousuf

Japans New Defence Posture:
From Post-War Pacifism to Strategic Recalibration and Autonomy
April 2026 | CWA # 2074

Brighty Ann Sarah

Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire:
Asymmetric Terms, Fragile Truce and Israeli Occupation
April 2026 | CWA # 2073

Akshath Kaimal

The US-Iran War, Week Eight:
A Fragile Ceasefire, Attempts to Control Hormuz and the Stalled Talks in Islamabad
April 2026 | CWA # 2065

Lakshmi Venugopal Menon

The Middle East (JanMar 2026):
The US-Iran War, Israel-Hamas Conflict and their interconnected fallouts
April 2026 | CWA # 2056

Ashik J Bonofer

Southeast Asia (Jan-Mar 2026)
Deteriorating situation in Myanmar, Philippines as the ASEAN Chair, New government in Thailand, and Economic & Environmental challenges
April 2026 | CWA # 2055

Haans J Freddy

East Asia (Jan-Mar 2026)
Chinas military operations near Taiwan, Japan-China tensions and South Koreas security challenges
March 2026 | CWA # 2042

Preetha Renganarayanan

Five Takeaways of the US Annual Threat Assessment (ATA) Report for 2026
March 2026 | CWA # 2033

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal after elections:
Five major challenges for the new government
March 2026 | CWA # 2024

Lekshmi MK

The UN and the Iran-US War
UNSC Resolution 2817 between Clear and Unified Message and Manifest Injustice
March 2026 | CWA # 2010

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal Elections 2026
The Rise of the New and the Fall of the Old
March 2026 | CWA # 2009

Sreemaya Nair

Nepal Elections 2026
Rise of a new leadership and Reset in political landscape
March 2026 | CWA # 2003

Yesasvi Koganti

PM Modis Visit to Israel
From bilateral ties to a special strategic partnership
March 2026 | CWA # 2001

Preetha Renganarayanan

Six major takeaways on the economy, border and internal security and Iran
February 2026 | CWA # 1986

Preetha Renganarayanan

Focus on Trade, Defense, Energy and Regional Connectivity
February 2026 | CWA # 1985

Abhimanyu Solanki

Basant in Pakistan
The return of Basant, and what it signifies
December 2025 | CWA # 1970

Aparna A Nair

Pakistan & China
Ten Years of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)
November 2025 | CWA # 1968

Vani Vyshnavi Jupudi

Pakistan and the US
A New opening, or another cycle?
February 2026 | CWA # 1959

Yesasvi Koganti

UK and China
PM Keir Starmers visit and the Recalibration of Economic, Strategic, and Domestic ties
January 2026 | CWA # 1946

Preetha Renganarayanan

The Davos Summit 2026
Five Major Takeaways from The World Economic Forum
October 2025 | CWA # 1828

Brighty Ann Sarah

August 2025 | CWA # 1796

Ditipriya Ghosh

August 2025 | CWA # 1787

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

What is the background? And what does it mean?
August 2025 | CWA # 1786

Astha Panda

Fewer births, Smaller families and Out-migration
August 2025 | CWA # 1780

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

Trump tariffs:
Weaponization of access to the US economy
July 2025 | CWA # 1772

Kasvi Batra

Another setback for the ruling party
July 2025 | CWA # 1771

Swati Sood

Prioritizing Neighbors
July 2025 | CWA # 1767

Naomi Miriam Mathew

Minerals, Markets, and Military
July 2025 | CWA # 1765

Kasvi Batra

Balancing Economic Interests, Strategic Tensions and a Soft Power Recalibration
July 2025 | CWA # 1762

Lekshmi MK

What is the phenomenon? What are its effects? And who are more vulnerable?
July 2025 | CWA # 1743

M Kejia

A Significant Visit for a Road to Strategic Partnership
July 2025 | CWA # 1738

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Thailand and Cambodia
What was the phone call between PM Shinawatra and President of Senate Hun Sen? What is the border dispute between the two? Why has this become an issue?
June 2025 | CWA # 1733

Ananya Dinesh

What was the recent China-PIC joint statement about? What it says, and what it means?
June 2025 | CWA # 1731

Farhaz Rashid Ahmed

Where does the Black Lives Matter Movement stand today?
June 2025 | CWA # 1728

M Kejia

G7 Summit 2025:
The Focus on the Middle East and Trade negotiations
June 2025 | CWA # 1725

Brighty Ann Sarah, R Preetha, Santhiya M, Aparna A Nair & M Kejia

Operation Midnight Hammer: US bombs three nuclear sites in Iran
What were the three Iranian nuclear sites that were targeted? What are the B2 Bombers and Bunker Buster Bombs? What do these attacks mean? What Next?
June 2025 | CWA # 1715

Femy Francis

The US-China:
On Tariffs, Rare Earths and Visas
June 2025 | CWA # 1711

Gauri Gupta

June 2025 | CWA # 1708

Santhiya M

The RPP and UML showcase their strength in the streets of Kathmandu
June 2025 | CWA # 1706

Merin Treesa Alex

Instability to possible stability
June 2025 | CWA # 1702

Lekshmi MK

June 2025 | CWA # 1694

Aashish Ganeshan

The US:
Harvard vs Trump Administration
June 2025 | CWA # 1693

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

The focus on Politics, Trade and Defence
May 2025 | CWA # 1688

Ayan Datta

Gaza
May 2025 | CWA # 1685

Aparna A Nair

UK-EU Summit:
First step towards a reset
May 2025 | CWA # 1684

Farhaz Rashid Ahmed

No clear winners, yet
May 2025 | CWA # 1683

Aashish Ganeshan

Elections in Portugal:
The Rise of Chega Party and the Search for Political Stability
May 2025 | CWA # 1678

Gauri Gupta

China in Latin America
China-CELAC forum: Strengthening ties with Latin America and Caribbean
May 2025 | CWA # 1675

Lekshmi MK

Turkey:
PKK disbands after 40 years of armed insurgency
May 2025 | CWA # 1673

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine:
The Discussion in Turkiye and the Elusive Ceasefire
May 2025 | CWA # 1671

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

US, Ukraine and Russia:
Air attacks amidst a Minerals deal and Ceasefire Proposals
May 2025 | CWA # 1667

R Preetha and Brighty Ann Sarah

East Asia:
Tough Tariff Negotiations with the US
May 2025 | CWA # 1666

Padmashree Anandhan

The US-Ukraine
The mineral deal with the US
May 2025 | CWA # 1663

R Preetha

Canada Elections 2025:
What do the results convey? What next for Mark Carney?
April 2025 | CWA # 1657

Abhishiktha S Kumar

Who wants the King to return and who opposes it?
March 2025 | CWA # 1641

Vani Vyshnavi Jupudi

March 2025 | CWA # 1621

Vaneeta

January 2025 | CWA # 1573

Vaneeta

January 2025 | CWA # 1570

Vaneeta

January 2025 | CWA # 1562

Ayan Datta

December 2024 | CWA # 1555

Nupur Priya

June 2024 | CWA # 1368

Ayan Datta & Sayeka Ghosh

March 2024 | CWA # 1246

Sivasubramanian K

January 2024 | CWA # 1211

Bibhu Prasad Routray

May 2023 | CWA # 955

Amit Gupta

November 2022 | CWA # 848

Vignesh Ram

October 2022 | CWA # 807

Dr Beena

February 2022 | CWA # 679

Porkkodi Ganeshpandian and Angkuran Dey

September 2021 | CWA # 547

Lokendra Sharma

August 2021 | CWA # 533

Dincy Adlakha

June 2021 | CWA # 498

Gurpreet Singh

May 2021 | CWA # 467

Lokendra Sharma

February 2021 | CWA # 434

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

February 2021 | CWA # 428

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

February 2021 | CWA # 427

Apoorva Sudhakar

January 2021 | CWA # 415

GP Team

January 2021 | CWA # 411

D Suba Chandran

December 2020 | CWA # 405

Mallika Devi

December 2020 | CWA # 404

Harini Madhusudan

December 2020 | CWA # 403

Kamna Tiwary

December 2020 | CWA # 400

Sourina Bej

September 2020 | CWA # 337

Anju Annie Mammen

September 2020 | CWA # 336

Harini Madhusudan

September 2020 | CWA # 335

Sourina Bej

June 2020 | CWA # 304

Padmashree A

May 2020 | CWA # 293

Boa Wang

May 2020 | CWA # 288

Adnan Aziz Chowdhury

May 2020 | CWA # 286

Boa Wang

March 2020 | CWA # 250

Rashmi Ramesh

February 2020 | CWA # 235

Lakshmi V Menon

January 2020 | CWA # 209

Boa Wang

January 2020 | CWA # 208

Vivek Mishra

December 2019 | CWA # 196

Harini Madhusudan

November 2019 | CWA # 179

Rashmi Ramesh

October 2019 | CWA # 178

Sourina Bej

September 2019 | CWA # 162

Lakshman Chakravarthy N

5G: A Primer
September 2019 | CWA # 161

Rashmi Ramesh

July 2019 | CWA # 147

Vivek Mishra

June 2019 | CWA # 134

Sourina Bej

June 2019 | CWA # 133

Harini Madhusudan

June 2019 | CWA # 126

Jerin George

May 2019 | CWA # 117

Sourina Bej

January 2019 | CWA # 80

Abhishrut Singh

January 2019 | CWA # 78

Kriti

January 2019 | CWA # 77

Komal Tiwary

December 2018 | CWA # 71

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal
December 2018 | CWA # 70

Nasima Khatoon

The Maldives
December 2018 | CWA # 69

Harini Madhusudan

India
December 2018 | CWA # 68

Sourina Bej

Bangladesh
December 2018 | CWA # 67

Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer

Afghanistan
September 2018 | CWA # 58

Aparupa Bhattacherjee

August 2018 | CWA # 52

Oishee Majumdar

July 2018 | CWA # 47

Rahul Arockiaraj

July 2018 | CWA # 40

Rahul Arockiaraj

June 2018 | CWA # 26

Siddhatti Mehta

June 2018 | CWA # 21

Harini Madhusudan

May 2018 | CWA # 8

Samreen Wani

May 2018 | CWA # 1

Samreen Wani