Photo Source: AP Photo, Charles Krupa
National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS)
Indian Institute of Science Campus, Bangalore
For any further information or to subscribe to GP alerts send an email to subachandran@nias.res.in
Commentary
The Trump Phenomenon: Why it Won’t Go
![]() |
Amit Gupta
|
What explains the ability of Trump, three years later, to remain a frontline contender who gets more media attention than anyone else from his party? And what kind of policies is he likely to espouse in his new run for the presidency?
The Red-Blue divide in America is not just political or ideological
It is based on a sharp division of economic fortunes within the United States. In the 2020 election, Joe Biden won 477 counties and 81 million odd votes while Trump won 2497 counties and 74 million votes. What was more interesting, however, was that the Biden counties accounted for 70 per cent of GDP while the Trump counties accounted for only 29 per cent of GDP. The Biden counties were economically prosperous, ethnically and racially diverse, had large immigrant communities, and were better educated.
MAGA and Trump’s political base
Trump derives support from those to whom globalization passed by in America. His motto of Make America Great Again resonates best with people who are economically deprived. He also appeals to the conservative white middle class who are uncomfortable with the demographic transition that will transform the country into a nation where minorities become a numerical majority.
In 2016, the average Trump supporter had an income of $70,000 which is more than the national average for individual income. It is similar to the Brexit supporters who, while being supported by a majority of the working class, also included a large number of upper-middle class supporters.
Others like Trump for being a disrupter who shook up the way American politics, particularly in the Republican party, was conducted. In 2016, the Republican establishment supported Jeb Bush. Trump crushed Bush in the primaries with his wit and earthy humor. Bush could not counter the nickname, Low Energy Jeb, that Trump gave him.
All these constituencies remain favorable to Trump and can be mobilized in his support.
Trump’s Policies: Continuity and Change
If Trump is the Republican candidate, are his policies going to change to try and reach out to independent voters? The answer, with a few modifications, is no.
Trump’s domestic policies were and will remain a combination of standard Republican formulations, like tax cuts, and populist themes like protectionism and the culture wars. When Trump assumed office, both houses of Congress were controlled by the Republicans. This should have allowed the new Republican president to pass the most popular parts of his agenda, which included building a border wall, getting rid of Obama care, and coming up with an infrastructure plan. The Republican-led Congress shot down each of these Trump initiatives thereby taking away the most popular parts of his election manifesto. Trump’s message, therefore, will be to conclude unfinished business from the first term and to continue to appeal to the three bases - corporate and business interests, Christian fundamentalists, and populists.
For the corporate and business interests, Trump will continue to espouse business friendly policies which include less regulation and the repeal of existing laws. While another tax-cut would be difficult, it would not be out of the question; it would reinforce Trump’s reputation of being business friendly.
The interesting question is how will Trump balance between his policies to gain the support of Christian fundamentalists with the general unease in America about the repeal of Roe vs. Wade?
Trump is the hero of the evangelical Christians since he put three conservative judges on the Supreme Court and they delivered a majority decision against abortion rights. The problem for Trump and the Republicans is that the repeal of Roe v. Wade is not popular in the country with the majority wanting some sort of access to abortion.
Worse, Justice Clarence Thomas has argued that repealing abortion rights was the first step in a broader conservative agenda which included repealing gay marriage and even contraception. This challenge to individual liberty has roused middle-class Americans who have come out in large numbers to vote against Republican candidates and this led to the Democrats having an unexpectedly strong showing in the 2022 mid-term.
The other policy that Trump will continue, that will appeal to all three of his constituencies, is the attack on wokeness, alternatively described as the culture war. America is now divided between the conservatives and the progressive forces and not only is this a divide over economic issues but also over cultural ones. The conservatives achieved a great victory with the repeal of abortion rights but their next great goal is a war on LGBTQ culture including gay marriage and not teaching LGBTQ issues in schools.
Trump himself was against transgendered women participating in women’s sports; he is likely to use this attack as the basis for a broader campaign against the LGBTQ community.
What are the implications of such policies?
First, on social issues most of Americans are concerned about the path these regressive policies may lead the country down. The repeal of abortion came as a shock and made white women, who generally had voted for the Republicans, to come out in large numbers to support pro-choice candidates. An assault on gay marriage would lead to complications because according to the US census bureau there are now over 1.2 million same-sex households in the United States and taking away their legal rights would create a log-jam in the court system. Further, the attack on books and movies will be met with fierce resistance in the liberal states which do not have a Taliban-like view of American society—one of sexual repression and anti-intellectualism.
A second consequence is more damaging on the US international standing. In the long run it can hurt American soft power around the world since US lawmakers will be seen as being out of step with the rest of the world.
In conclusion, Trump may well get the candidacy but even without him the Republican party seems bent on pursuing the culture war. Trump may just throw gasoline on this cultural fire.
About the Author
Amit Gupta is a Senior Advisor to the Forum of Federations, Ottawa, Canada. The views in this article are his and do not necessarily represent those of the Forum. He can be contacted at agupta1856@gmail.com
![]() |
![]() |
Bookmark |
Sneha Surendran
Wildfires in Europe: Another year of devastation
Padmashree Anandhan
Return of the Heatwaves
Indrani Talukdar
Ukraine War and the International Order
Himani Pant
Germany-Russia Relations: What Next?
Ramya Balasubramanian
Russia and Europe: Understanding Moscow’s strategies
Lakshmi Parimala
Hybrid Warfare in Ukraine
Padmashree Anandhan
The War in Ukraine: Four Issues to watch in 2023
Harini Madhusudan, Rishika Yada, Sneha Surendran, Prerana P, Sreeja JS and Padmashree Anandhan
Russia: Anatomy of Wagner Revolt, and its Fallouts
Rishika Yadav | Research Assistant, National Institute of Advanced Studies, Indian Institute of Science Campus, Bangalore
Serbia: Mass shootings, protests and instability
Rishika Yadav and Nityashree RB | Research Assistant and Research Intern, National Institute of Advanced Studies, Indian Institute of Science Campus, Bangalore
Turkey’s Elections: Unravelling the Political Spectacle of 2023
Padmashree Anandhan | Research Associate National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bangalore
Belgorod drone attacks: Who, What and Why?
Indrani Talukdar
Russia's Position in the Arctic: New challenges
Rishika Yadav
Turkey’s Election: Issues, Actors and Outcomes
Padmashree Anandhan
Pentagon document leak: Russia-Ukraine Conflict From a Tactical Lens
Indrani Talukdar
Belarus’s endgame in Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Padmashree Anandhan
Russia: Drone attacks escalate the Ukraine war
Padmashree Anandhan
The UK: Conservative party put to test as worker strikes continue
Harini Madhusudan, Rishma Banerjee, Padmashree Anandhan, Ashwin Immanuel Dhanabalan, and Avishka Ashok
What next for Russia, Ukraine, Europe, South Asia & India, and China
Padmashree Anandhan and Rishma Banerjee
UNGA 77: Who said what from Europe?
Rashmi Ramesh
Ice Melt in Alps in Europe: Three impacts
Rishma Banerjee
Tracing Europe's droughts
Padmashree Anandhan
Major causes behind Europe’s continuing heatwaves
Emmanuel Selva Royan
100 days of the Ukraine war: US Responses in the war
Padmashree Anandhan
100 days of the Ukraine war: What next for Europe?
Ashwin Immanuel Dhanabalan
100 days of the Ukraine war: More loss than gain for Russia
Angelin Archana | Assistant Professor, Women’s Christian College, Chennai
China's response to the Ukraine crisis: Shaped by its relationship with Russia and EU under the US Shadow
Shreya Upadhyay | Assistant Professor, Christ (Deemed to be University), Bangalore
Transatlantic Ties in the Wake of Ukraine-Russia War
Uma Purushothaman | Assistant Professor, Central University of Kerala, Kerala
Ukraine and beyond: The US Strategies towards Russia
Debangana Chatterjee | Assistant Professor, JAIN (Deemed-to-be University), Bangalore
Lessons from Ukraine War: Effectiveness of Sanctions
Himani Pant | Research Fellow, ICWA, Delhi
Ukraine and beyond: What next for Russia and Europe?
Sourina Bej
Elections in Sweden
Padmashree Anandhan
Italy's far-right wins 2022 elections
Padmashree Anandhan
Putin’s address in the Valdai Discussion: Six takeaways
Padmashree Anandhan
Queen Elizabeth: End of an era
Padmashree Anandhan
Russia and Eastern Economic Forum 2022: A sturdy Far East
Padmashree Anandhan
Who will be the next UK prime minister: Liss Truss v. Rishi Sunak
Padmashree Anandhan
France: Uber files leak, and Macron’s trouble
Emmanuel Selva Royan
Italy: Three factors about its current political instability
Padmashree Anandhan
What does Macron's victory mean for France and the EU
Rishma Banerjee
The rise of Marine Le Pen
Sourina Bej
Four challenges ahead for President Macron
Ashwin Immanuel Dhanabalan
Lecture report: Ukraine, Russia and Europe
Joeana Cera Matthews
Into History: Northern Ireland and Bloody Sunday, 50 years later
Padmashree Anandhan
Munich Security Report: Six takeaways
Joeana Cera Matthews
Europe and Africa: An elusive search for an equal partnership
Ashwin Immanuel Dhanabalan
Femicides in Europe: The case of France
Padmashree Anandhan
Post Brexit: Three challenges in Northern Ireland
Ashwin Immanuel Dhanabalan
Lithuania and China: Vilnius has become Beijing’s Achilles heel. Four reasons why
Angelin Archana
Russia in 2021: Expanding boundaries
Joeana Cera Matthews
In Europe, abortion rights are "a privilege." Four reasons why
Padmashree Anandhan
Mapping COVID-19 protests in Europe: Who and Why
Vaishnavi Iyer
France, Algeria, and the politics over an apology
Joeana Cera Matthews
NATO-Russia relationship: Looking beyond the suspensions and expulsions
Padmashree Anandhan
Facebook's Metaverse: Why it matters to Europe
Joeana Cera Matthews
Poland, EU and PolExit. It is complicated, for three reasons
Harini Madhusudhan
Europe's Energy Crisis and Gazprom
Chetna Vinay Bhora
Europe's Energy Crisis: It could get worse. Five reasons why
Sourina Bej
France: Paris Terror Trial
Harini Madhusudan
Belarus: Weaponization of the Migrant Crisis
Joeana Cera Matthews
From Crimea to Navalny: Putin's calibrated Europe strategy
Joeana Cera Matthews
Nord Stream-2: Why is the region unhappy about the pipeline?
Sarthak Jain
Nord Stream 2 is Russia’s geopolitical victory
Keerthana Rajesh Nambiar
The EU Summit 2021: Five Takeaways
Chetna Vinay Bhora