|
Naomi Miriam Mathew
21 July 2025 |
The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute published its report on World Nuclear Forces on June 16, 2025. The report highlights the nuclear modernizing programs of the Nine nuclear states, marking the end of the post-Cold War era arms reduction and the emergence of a technologically advanced arms race.
Globally, the total nuclear warheads is expected to be 12,241, out of which 9,614 are Military stockpiles and 2,627 are retired stockpiles awaiting dismantling. SIPRI also highlights the asymmetry of dismantling retired warheads and the trend of large-scale modernization and expansion of Warheads. America and Russia hold about 90 per cent of the nuclear warheads.
This report emphasized the onset of a new nuclear arms race among the nine nuclear states. Following are the major trends, according to the SIPRI report.
First, the US holds a stockpile of 5,044 nuclear warheads, out of which nearly 1770 are deployed. According to the report, the US is on an ambiguous nuclear modernization, which includes the replacement of the Minuteman 3 Intercontinental Ballistic missile with a ground-based strategic system, and the development of the Columbia class ballistic missile submarine and the upgradation to B61 gravity bombs and long-range cruise missiles.
Second, Russia holds a stockpile of about 5,580 nuclear warheads, out which nearly 1710 are deployed. Like the US, Russia is also in an arms race to modernize its nuclear forces. Russia is deploying new missile systems like RS-28 Sarmat and modernizing its dual-capable missiles that can carry both nuclear and conventional warheads. Russia’s upgradation of nuclear weapons emphasizes the strategy of deterrence and potential battlefield use, particularly in the context of the Ukraine conflict.
Third, China is the fastest-growing nuclear state, adding approximately 100 warheads annually since 2023. As per the SIPRI estimate, China has around 600 warheads. This enormous growth is complemented by the construction of 300 new missile silos and modernizing its nuclear triad including sea and air based nuclear systems. With this pace, China is expected to have as many Intercontinental ballistic missiles as Russia and the US by the turn of this decade.
Fourth, France is expected to refurbish and modernize its nuclear program and currently has about 290 nuclear warheads, all of which are active military stockpiles. The deterrence of France is entirely sea-based, which includes four Triomphant-class submarines with M51 SLBMs. France is also expected to modernize its air-based nuclear missile, which includes the development of ASN4G hypersonic air-launch missiles.
Fifth, the UK is to raise its warhead stockpiling from 180 to 260 in 2021, which is a significant policy strike amidst a deteriorating security environment. UK currently has 225 nuclear warheads, out of which 40 are at sea on continuous deterrent patrol. It has developed Dreadnought-class SSBNs and integrated US-developed W93/Mk7 Warheads with British Warheads under a shared Trident nuclear system.
Sixth, India continues to modernize its nuclear program. According to the report, as of January 2025, India has about 180 nuclear heads and is developing a second-strike capability through the nuclear triad of aircraft, land-based missiles and SSBNs. The advancements in air-based missile systems include Agni-P and Agni-V. India’s nuclear posture is based on a no-first-use policy and its arsenal expansion is based on the perceived threats from both China and Pakistan.
Seventh, Pakistan, according to the report, upgrades to its nuclear development by construction of new delivery systems and accumulation of fissile materials like plutonium and highly enriched uranium can expand over the next decade. Its nuclear stockpiling is closely matching that of India, with approximately 170 warheads. Pakistan continues to develop its nascent triad of aircraft, land-based, and cruise missiles.
Eighth, North Korea, according to the report, would have accumulated almost 50 warheads and has fissile materials for up to 90 warheads. North Korea continues to conduct nuclear tests, including solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missiles and submarine missiles, and these activities reinforce its status as a de facto nuclear power.
Ninth, Israel continues to be in a state of absolute nuclear ambiguity, leaving significant ambiguity regarding the number and characteristics of nuclear weapons. As per the estimates of SIPRI as of January 2025, Israel would have around 90 nuclear warheads. As a significant deterrent to countries like Iran, Israel is continuously developing its nuclear capabilities by developing medium-range Jericho missiles and gravity bombs, and enriching plutonium production at NNRC. Despite being a non-signatory of NPT, Israel is considered an advanced undeclared nuclear power.
Major note of the report: Lack of transparency and secrecy in revealing nuclear doctrines
SIPRI report highlights the lack of transparency and non-disclosure policy of nuclear doctrines among the nine nuclear states. Though some countries like US, UK, and France have relatively clear and publicly articulated doctrines, other nuclear states offer limited visibility of their nuclear doctrines. This covertness by countries complicates global efforts for arms control and confidence-building. SIPRI report states that this is partly due to the degradation of control regimes like New START and warns of miscalculations and crisis instability in an already fragile international security environment.
Reference
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. (2025). World nuclear forces (SIPRI Yearbook 2025 Sample Chapter). Oxford University Press.
https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/YB25%2006%20World%20Nuclear%20Forces.pdf
About the Author
Naomi Miriam Mathew is a postgraduate student of International Studies at the Symbiosis School of International Studies, Pune.
