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The World This Week
President Putin's India Visit, President Macron's China Visit, US-Venezuela Tensions, and the New US Security Strategy
The World This Week #337, Vol 7, No 47, 07 December 2025

  NIAS Team
7 December 2025

President Putin's India Visit:
Economic, Military, and Strategic Agreements

Sunidhi Sampige & Tanvi Harendra

What happened?
On 4 December, President Putin arrived in New Delhi, marking his first visit to India in four years. PM Narendra Modi greeted Putin personally upon his arrival. The two leaders met for a private dinner at the Prime Minister's residence.

On 5 December, Modi and Putin co-chaired the 23rd India-Russia Annual Summit, which aimed to strengthen economic, defence, and technology cooperation. On 2 December, the State Duma, the lower house of the Russian Parliament, provided its assent to the Reciprocal Exchange of Logistic Support (RELOS). The agreement, originally signed on 18 February 2025, contains procedures for dispatching Russian military formations, warships, and aircraft to India, as well as for managing mutual logistical support.

On 5 December, India's Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman met with her Russian counterpart Anton Siluanov to encourage Russia to increase imports from India and to promote Russian investment in India; also to develop projects in the energy sector, infrastructure, digital payment systems, and SMES, to achieve USD 100 billion in bilateral trade by 2030. The same day, India's Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and his Russian counterpart, Andrey Belousov, discussed increasing collaboration in the production and maintenance of military platforms, as well as expanding joint training and exercises. They also discussed how India and Russia could use the Logistic Support Agreement to improve the operations of their respective militaries, provide each other with access to bases and supplies during joint exercises and operations, and develop capabilities for planning support.

On 5 December, Russia and India signed multiple strategic and economic agreements. The new economic cooperation programme, covering trade and investment, will continue through to 2030 and form the foundation for an FTA with the Eurasian Economic Union. As part of the agreement, Russia promised to supply India with fuel continuously for an indefinite period. Both countries also agreed to deepen their energy and critical minerals relationship by developing small modular reactors and floating nuclear power plants, and by establishing shipping routes through the Arctic. In addition, Indian businesses reached an agreement with Russia's URALCHEM to build a urea production facility in Russia.

What is the background?

First, rekindling and strengthening of the bilateral relations. Since December 2021, Putin has not visited India; therefore, there have been no official meetings between the leaders during this period while Russia was engaged in military action in Ukraine and subject to increasing Western sanctions. Russia's invasion of Ukraine made India take a neutral approach to the situation. The current visit is aimed at reinvigorating the bilateral ties.

Second, the sanctions and the oil imports. Numerous European countries reduced their dependence on Russian oil and gas. Moscow began to look toward greater trade with East Asia, including China and India. India significantly increased its imports of Russian oil and gas at discounted rates, making Russia its largest energy supplier. India's inflation fell, and energy was secured; India provided Russia with an alternative market despite Western restrictions. 

Third, the pressure on India on its Russia relations. India was being pressured by the US and its allies to keep a distance from Russia, especially in the defence sector. The US has repeatedly raised the issue under CAATSA (Countering America's Adversaries through Sanctions Act), which allows the imposition of sanctions on nations that enter into significant defence deals with Russia. India's purchase of the S-400 air defence system from Russia had attracted attention.

What does it mean?

Putin's visit to India has both symbolic and strategic relevance for both. For Russia, the visit is a diplomatic gesture that shows it still has strong global allies despite Western sanctions and isolation. The interaction with India contributes to Russia refuting the statement of total isolation on the international stage and strengthening its pivot towards Asia as a long-term strategic angle. For India, the visit is an indication of its current policy of strategic autonomy, and a reaffirmation that New Delhi will not succumb to external pressure to dictate its foreign policies.

Second, the evolving nature of the global order. As the level of great power rivalry increases, India is shaping itself to be capable of dealing with the other blocs, yet not necessarily taking a loyalty test to either of them. This gives India the ability to get economic advantage, ally with countries in defence, and increase its leverage on the international front.

France's President Macron's visit to China:
Strengthening bilateral ties, trade, and strategic engagement

Lekshmi MK

What happened?

During 03-05 December, France's President Emmanuel Macron visited China, marking the continuation of France's strategic engagement amid growing EU-China tensions.

On 04 December, both countries signed 12 cooperation agreements covering nuclear energy, investment, aviation, agricultural exports, ageing-population cooperation, and panda conservation. These agreements reflect efforts to expand trade, strengthen economic ties, and facilitate market access for French industries in China, including high-value sectors such as aerospace, agri-food, and luxury goods. They also support China's domestic priorities in technology, sustainable development, and resource management. In addition, two joint statements were issued on "Global climate and environmental cooperation," and "Enhancing global governance."

On 05 December, the visit concluded with a symbolic cultural outreach in Chengdu, where President Xi accompanied President Macron to heritage sites.

What is the background?

First, recent France-China relations amid growing EU-China friction. Both countries have been working to stabilise their relationship when broader EU-China ties face mounting tensions over trade imbalances, market access barriers, and concerns over critical raw-material dependencies. While the EU is tightening economic-security rules and pursuing supply-chain "de-risking," France continues to emphasise engagement and dialogue with China. Recent high-level exchanges between President Macron and President Xi show an effort to maintain political communication, prevent escalation in economic disputes, and preserve space for cooperation in areas where interests still converge. For France, keeping relations steady supports its strategy of strategic autonomy within Europe and protects key sectors such as aviation, nuclear energy, and agriculture. For China, cultivating strong ties with a major EU power helps counter diplomatic isolation and demonstrates that meaningful partnerships with Europe remain possible despite rising scrutiny. Overall, the relationship reflects cautious pragmatism shaped by a complex EU-China environment.

Second, the state of France-China economic relations. Bilateral trade remains important despite rising economic security tensions within the EU. The trade relationship is characterised by long-standing asymmetry. China exports large volumes of manufactured goods, including electronics, machinery, textiles, and household equipment. Meanwhile, France's exports are concentrated in sectors such as aerospace, agri-food products, cosmetics, luxury goods, and civil nuclear cooperation. In recent years, trade flows have been affected by China's domestic slowdown, supply-chain disruptions, and tightening EU-level scrutiny of Chinese investments and imports. Paris has also become more cautious due to concerns about market access barriers, intellectual-property risks, and China's dominance in critical raw-material processing. At the same time, French firms continue to view China as an important consumer market, especially for aviation, wine, dairy, and luxury sectors. Overall, the trade landscape is defined by interdependence but rising friction.

Third, the strategic interests of France and China. France's interest in China is shaped by its pursuit of strategic autonomy, aiming to ensure that Europe is not overly dependent on the US for economic or geopolitical choices. Engaging China allows Paris to maintain diplomatic flexibility, protect its commercial interests, and safeguard the competitiveness of key sectors such as aviation, nuclear energy, agriculture, and luxury goods. China also represents a crucial market for French exports and a partner on global issues such as climate governance. For China, France is one of the most influential EU powers, politically independent, economically significant, and willing to keep open channels despite rising European scepticism. Strengthening ties with France helps Beijing counterbalance pressure from Brussels and Washington, maintain access to European technology and investment, and gain legitimacy for its multipolar vision. Both countries, therefore, use the relationship to diversify partnerships.

What does it mean?

First, an expanded French engagement with China. This signals a broader and more deliberate French engagement with China, reflecting Paris's ambition to position itself as a leading voice within the EU on how Europe should manage its complex relationship with Beijing. By taking on this role, France aims to shape a more autonomous European foreign policy, one that is not aligned with US strategic preferences. It would enhance its influence over EU-China policy debates and expand access for French industries, from aviation and luxury goods to renewable technologies, in the Chinese market. For China, closer engagement with France would provide European partners capable of balancing both US pressure and internal EU skepticism. It would also help Beijing secure stable trade ties, maintain channels for diplomatic dialogue, and strengthen its legitimacy and presence within the broader European political and economic landscape.

Second, diversifying strategic partnerships and promoting multipolarity. The visit signals France's intent to diversify its strategic and economic partnerships beyond traditional US-centric channels. For China, strengthening ties with France offered a European partner capable of supporting dialogue and stabilising relations within Europe without dictating policy. Moreover, the visit reflects a careful pursuit of diversified ties; France could deepen relations with China while still aligning with EU frameworks and global rules. The engagement remains issue-specific rather than an endorsement of China's broader global governance ambitions.

US-Venezuela Tensions:
Military, Diplomatic and Internal Challenges to President Trump

R Preetha

What happened?

On 3 December, three Democratic Senators, along with a Republican, filed a War Powers resolution. They said: "Should a strike occur, we will call up a War Powers Resolution to force a debate and vote in Congress that would block the use of US forces in hostilities against or within Venezuela."

On 30 November, President Trump confirmed that he had telephoned Venezuela's President Nicolás Maduro, but declined to disclose any details. 

On 29 November, Trump stated on Truth Social: "To all Airlines, Pilots, Drug Dealers, and Human Traffickers, please consider THE AIRSPACE ABOVE AND SURROUNDING VENEZUELA TO BE CLOSED IN ITS ENTIRETY." Venezuela's government condemned the remarks in a statement as a "colonialist threat" against the country's sovereignty and contrary to international law.

On 27 November, Trump, while addressing the US military service members, stated: "We'll be starting to stop them by land also. The land is easier, but that's going to start very soon."

What is the background?

First, a brief background to the recent US-Venezuela tensions. Since early September 2025, US forces under Operation Southern Spear have carried out 21 lethal strikes on suspected drug-smuggling vessels in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific, killing 83 people. On 2 September, a strike authorised by Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth sank a boat with 11 people aboard, and a follow-up strike reportedly targeted survivors. The US alleges these vessels, linked to the Tren de Aragua gang and "Cartel de los Soles" (designated a foreign terrorist organization, with Maduro being associated with this group), transport fentanyl and other narcotics to the US, framing the operations as targeting "narco-terrorists." The US has authorized Covert CIA operations in Venezuela and has also deployed 10,000 troops, warships, and fighter aircraft. Washington considers Maduro's government illegitimate and accuses his government of narco-corruption. Nicolás Maduro has been in power in Venezuela since 2013 and was re-elected in 2024, a vote dismissed as fraudulent by the US and Western allies.

Second, Venezuela's responses to US actions. Caracas views the US actions as a regime-change effort disguised as counternarcotics operations, aimed at exploiting Venezuela's natural resources in the backdrop of economic collapse and with nearly 7.9 million refugee exodus (UNHCR). President Maduro rejects allegations of drug links, condemning the strikes as sovereignty violations and potential war crimes; UN experts have also raised concerns about extrajudicial killings and civilian harm. In response, Venezuela has mobilised weapons and is reportedly preparing for a guerrilla-style resistance in the event of a US attack, while seeking additional support from Russia and China. Diplomatic options have narrowed after a brief call with Trump last month in which, it is reported, Maduro sought amnesty and sanctions relief as part of a negotiated exit. Trump rejected most requests but offered a one-week safe passage for Maduro and his family. This safe passage offer expired on 28 November, reportedly prompting Trump's airspace declaration.

Third, opposition within the US, and the White House's response. President Trump has repeatedly stated that a land attack on Venezuela would begin "very soon," leading to bipartisan concern. A group of Democratic and Republican Senators have filed a war powers resolution. Under Senate rules, the resolution must come to a vote within days. Lawmakers from both parties have also expressed alarm over reports that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth ordered a second strike on survivors of the 2 September attack, potentially violating international law. The White House maintains that the operation was lawful. Spokesperson Karoline Leavitt stated that Hegseth had authorised the strikes, which were conducted to protect US interests, occurred in international waters and complied with the law of armed conflict. Previous attempts in Congress to require Trump to seek authorisation for actions against Venezuela have repeatedly failed, with Senate Republicans blocking resolutions in October and November.

What does it mean?

First, an escalation risking direct conflict. The lethal maritime strikes, large-scale US deployments, along with Trump's repeated threats of land operations, have raised concerns that Washington is moving beyond counternarcotics operations toward potential intervention. Even though US actions are framed as targeting "narco-terrorists," the scale of military activity goes well beyond typical counternarcotics efforts. Diplomatically, options are narrowing for President Maduro.

Second, within the US, there are tensions over executive authority. The bipartisan war powers resolution has reopened debates over the limits of executive authority in authorising the use of force. After two failed earlier attempts, a vote now tests the extent of congressional support for President Trump's approach. It could also expose divisions within the Republican Party and reflect broader constitutional concerns about executive overreach, especially if land operations proceed without legislative approval.


US National Security Strategy 2025:
Five Major Takeaways of 'Trump Corollary' to the Monroe Doctrine

R Preetha 

On 05 December, the US released National Security Strategy 2025, outlining President Trump's vision of "flexible realism." The strategy places the Western Hemisphere at the core of US foreign policy priorities, describing the shift as a "'Trump Corollary' to the Monroe Doctrine." 

The 29-page document states that the US will "restore American preeminence" in the region and strengthen its military posture in the Indo-Pacific. The strategy reflects a reduced emphasis on countering China and Russia and a firm stance toward Europe. It also signals a shift away from democracy promotion and long-standing military entanglements, prioritising economic advantage, regional influence and burden redistribution instead. 

The following are the five major takeaways of the report.

1. A Western Hemisphere–First Strategy: Reasserting the Monroe Doctrine
The NSS places the Western Hemisphere at the centre of US foreign policy. Describing this shift as the "'Trump Corollary' to the Monroe Doctrine," the document states that the US will "restore American preeminence" in the region and protect access to key geographies. The NSS directs American embassies to identify "major business opportunities… especially major government contracts," emphasising economic advantage as a central pillar of regional engagement. According to the document: "The terms of our agreements, especially with those countries that depend on us most and therefore over which we have the most leverage, must be sole-source contracts for our companies." The document does not fully clarify deliberations around potential action in Venezuela. However, it notes that America would prioritise working with "regional champions" capable of maintaining stability beyond their borders. It identifies that such partners can help curb illegal migration, neutralize cartels, support nearshoring of manufacturing, and strengthen local private-sector growth. The US is said to incentivise and support governments, political parties, and movements that align with its strategic objectives.  Overall, the Western Hemisphere is presented not only as a security priority but as the principal space through which the administration intends to implement its broader economic and geopolitical objectives.

2. A sharper critique of Europe, but a softer approach toward Russia
The National Security Strategy adopts a critical tone toward Europe, stating that the continent is undermining democracy, challenging peace efforts in Ukraine, and facing "civilisational erasure." According to the document, the US views the following as Europe's major challenges: activities of EU and other transnational institutions that weaken sovereignty; migration policies; restrictions on free speech and political opposition, declining birth rates, and an overall erosion of national identity and "self-confidence," which it says is explicit in its approach to Russia. The pointed criticism directed at Europe contrasts with its approach to conventional rivals such as Russia. The NSS recasts America as an arbiter between Europe and Russia, rather than Europe's ally. It notes that a peace deal should both "re-establish strategic stability with Russia" and ensure Ukraine's "survival as a viable state." The document also calls for ending NATO's "perpetually expanding alliance," reinforcing the shift toward a narrower defence role in Europe.

3. China as a primary economic competitor and less of a systemic threat
The NSS downplays countering China, portraying it largely as a commercial competitor rather than a larger threat. It lays out plans to recalibrate the economic relationship, stating: "Going forward, we will rebalance America's economic relationship with China, prioritizing reciprocity and fairness to restore American economic independence." 

The strategy positions the US goal of growing from a USD 30 trillion to a USD 40 trillion economy in the 2030s as a key driver of its approach to China.  Conflict over Taiwan is also framed mainly in commercial terms: "Given that one-third of global shipping passes annually through the South China Sea, this has major implications for the U.S. economy." It emphasises deterrence through "military overmatch." The NSS calls for a "genuinely mutually advantageous economic relationship" and emphasises stability over escalation in the Indo-Pacific.

4. The Middle East as "a source and destination of international investment"
Departing from long-standing US policy, the document does not present promoting democracy as a key objective. It notes that the traditional drivers of US engagement in the Middle East are expected to diminish. Instead, the Middle East is characterised as "a source and destination of international investment." It says achieving this, however, requires moving away from "America's misguided experiment with hectoring these nations….. especially the Gulf monarchies..into abandoning their traditions and historic forms of government." Reflecting a significant shift in its approach, the NSS notes that the US should support reforms wherever they occur organically in the region rather than impose them. The region is thus reframed as a partner in investment and technology rather than a site of US military engagement or democratic engineering.

5. Africa: shift from an aid-driven approach to one centred on trade, investment and resource access
The document outlines a major shift in US policy from an aid-driven approach to one centred on trade, investment, and resource access. It states: "For far too long, American policy in Africa has focused on providing, and later on spreading, liberal ideology. The United States should instead… transition from a foreign aid paradigm to an investment and growth paradigm." It identifies energy and critical minerals as immediate opportunities for investment and emphasises partnerships with "capable, reliable states" willing to open markets to US goods and services. The NSS also notes the need to monitor "Islamist terrorist activity" while avoiding long-term military commitments. It also partly frames Africa through the lens of resource competition with China, stating that US-backed technologies, including nuclear and LNG, can both support African development and advance US interests.

 

TWTW Regional Roundups

News from around the world
Aparna A Nair, Brighty Ann Sarah, Lekshmi MK, M Kejia, R Preetha, Santhiya M

CHINA & EAST ASIA THIS WEEK
France and China: President Macron meets President Xi and discusses geopolitics, trade and environment
On 04 December, French President Emmanuel Macron visited Beijing and met with Chinese President Xi. French President said, "The imbalances we see accumulating today are not sustainable, they carry the risk of triggering a financial crisis and threaten our ability to grow together." He urged President Xi to cooperate on geopolitics, trade and environment. In response, Xi said, "No matter how the external environment changes, our two countries should always demonstrate the independence and strategic vision of major powers." Furthermore, President Macron called for Beijing's support to end the war in Ukraine.

Taiwan and the US: Taipei calls new law strengthening ties with Washington; China protests
On 03 December, Reuters reported that a new US law requiring the State Department to review and update guidelines for official interactions with Taiwan every five years was signed by Donald Trump. It was a move welcomed by Taipei as an affirmation of US–Taiwan support and democratic values. Taiwan's government expressed gratitude, calling the measure a meaningful step towards closer engagement with Washington. The officials stated that the law may result in increased official contacts, even in the absence of official diplomatic relations. But Beijing reacted sharply. The law was denounced by the government of the People's Republic of China because it was considered to interfere with China's internal affairs, violate the principle of one China, and destabilise the region. The development has established a new point of conflict in the relationships among the US, China, and their neighbour, Taiwan, amplifying tension over its status and the broader strategic contest in East Asia.

SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH ASIA THIS WEEK

Pakistan and Afghanistan: Border clashes kill five, less than a week after peace talks
On 06 December, officials from Pakistan and Afghanistan said that border clashes between both countries that had erupted the previous day resulted in the death of at least five people. Afghan Taliban deputy spokesman Hamdullah Fitrat told Reuters that Pakistani shelling struck Kandahar province. Chief spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid accused Pakistan of launching unprovoked attacks. Islamabad rejected the allegations and added that Afghan forces opened fire first. "Pakistan remains fully alert and committed to defending its territorial integrity," Prime Minister's spokesman Mosharraf Zaidi said. The gunfire comes less than a week after Saudi Arabia-hosted peace talks ended without a breakthrough, despite both countries agreeing to uphold a ceasefire. This incident marks the worst violence since the October clashes that left dozens dead.

Pakistan and Afghanistan: Fresh peace talks in Saudi Arabia amid a fragile ceasefire
On 03 December, according to senior officials from both Afghanistan and Pakistan talking to Reuters, the military, intelligence, and foreign ministries of both nations held further discussions in Saudi Arabia to start a new phase of improving relations after the deadly border clashes that occurred in October. The delegations reaffirmed their commitment to maintaining the existing ceasefire, which has been in effect since prior negotiations facilitated by Qatar and Turkey ended without a comprehensive peace agreement. This Saudi-led mediation effort is the most recent attempt by the two countries to achieve more stable relations. In Pakistan, officials have stated that recent attacks, including a suicide bomber in Islamabad, have been carried out by militants based in Afghanistan, and that the Taliban has denied these allegations. The October border clashes were by far the most deadly fighting since the Taliban took control of the Afghan government in August 2021, with both sides suffering numerous fatalities. A ceasefire negotiated in Doha halted most hostilities. Still, another round of negotiations that occurred in Istanbul was derailed after Pakistan demanded a written commitment from the Taliban to stop providing support to anti-Pakistani militants, which Kabul claims it cannot provide.

Bulgaria: Thousands protest on 2026 euro-based budget, forcing the government to withdraw
On 02 December, under mounting public pressure, Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov's minority government decided to withdraw the draft budget it had previously proposed. On 01 December, large numbers of Bulgarians participated in demonstrations across Sofia and other major cities against the government's proposed 2026 budget. It's the first budget prepared in euros, as Bulgaria plans to enter the Eurozone on 1 January. The opposition coalition PP-DB called the budget "a way to hide the large amounts of ongoing corruption" by proposing to raise social insurance rates and taxes on dividend income. This was one of the largest protests in Sofia in many years, and some protesters clashed with police and vandalized the offices of the ruling GERB and DPS parties.

Floods in Sri Lanka and Southeast Asia: Death toll passes 1,100 in Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Malaysia
On 01 December, The Guardian reported that Sri Lanka and Indonesia deployed military personnel to support relief operations after severe flooding killed more than 1,100 people across Sri Lanka, Indonesia's Sumatra, Thailand and Malaysia. Experts attribute the scale of flooding partly to prolonged La Niña cycles, which intensify rainfall and increase the frequency of heavy storms and monsoons. In Indonesia, at least 604 people have died, and 464 remain missing, according to the national disaster agency. Sri Lanka has reported 366 deaths and 366 missing, while Thailand has recorded 176 deaths and Malaysia has three. The event is Indonesia's deadliest since the 2018 earthquake and tsunami that killed more than 2,000 people in Sulawesi. Sri Lanka declared a state of emergency following Cyclone Ditwah, which displaced 148,000 people. President Anura Kumara Dissanayake stated: "We are facing the largest and most challenging natural disaster in our history." The losses and damage are the most severe Sri Lanka has faced since the 2004 tsunami, which killed about 31,000 people and displaced more than one million. Although rainfall has subsided, flooding continues in low-lying areas of the capital, and authorities are preparing for a large-scale relief operation.

MIDDLE EAST THIS WEEK
The War in Gaza: Peace negotiations are at a "critical moment," says Qatar's Prime Minister; Tel Aviv raises defence budget by 90 billion shekels
On 06 December, Qatar's Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani stated that negotiations to reach the US-backed truce in Gaza are at a "critical moment." Speaking at a panel discussion at the Doha Forum conference in Qatar, al-Thani underscored that "We cannot consider it yet a ceasefire. A ceasefire cannot be completed unless there is a full withdrawal of the Israeli forces - (until) there is stability back in Gaza, people can go in and out - which is not the case today," he added that "What we have just done is a pause." Talks on implementing the second phase of President Trump's 20-point peace plan continue. On 05 December, an Israeli delegation held talks in Cairo with mediators on the return of the last hostage held in Gaza, which would complete an initial part of Trump's plan. Separately, Netanyahu announced that Israel's cabinet has approved the 2026 state budget, reserving 112 billion shekels (USD 35 billion) for defence, an increase from the 90 billion shekels budgeted in an earlier draft. "We will continue to act decisively to reinforce the IDF and to fully address the needs of the fighters and to reduce the burden on reservists - to ensure the security of the State of Israel on every front." Defence Minister Israel Katz's office quoted him as saying. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich stated, "We are allocating a huge budget to strengthen the army this year, but also one that allows us to return the State of Israel to a path of growth and relief for citizens."

Iran and Lebanon: Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi invites Lebanon's Foreign Minister Youssef Raji to visit Tehran to discuss bilateral relations
On 04 December, Iran's foreign ministry stated that Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi had invited Lebanon's Foreign Minister Youssef Raji to visit Tehran to discuss bilateral relations. According to the statement: "Araqchi, inviting his Lebanese counterpart to discuss the development of bilateral relations and review regional and international developments, expressed confidence that the Lebanese people and government will successfully overcome existing threats and challenges."  This development came a day after a separate meeting on 03 December, in which Israel and Lebanon sent civilian envoys to the military committee overseeing their 2024 US-brokered ceasefire, suggesting a potential expansion of talks between the two countries. Lebanon's Prime Minister Nawaf Salam stated that the country was open to the committee directly verifying Israeli claims that the Iran-aligned Hezbollah group is re-arming and assessing the Lebanese army's efforts to dismantle Hezbollah infrastructure. Israel and Lebanon reached a US-brokered ceasefire in 2024 that ended over a year of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah. Since then, both sides have continued to accuse each other of violating the agreement.

Iraq: Baghdad reverses decision after accidentally including Hezbollah and Houthis on asset seizure list
On 04 December, Iraq decided to excise Lebanon's Hezbollah and Yemen's Houthis rebels from a financial sanctions roster following their erroneous addition to a government bulletin last month. The Justice Ministry's publication accidentally encompassed these Iran-supported factions among entities slated for takeover, sparking widespread confusion. Such an inclusion would have aligned with US aspirations to diminish Tehran's sway in the region, amplifying strains on the Islamic Republic. In reality, the directive targeted solely assets tied to Islamic State and al Qaeda operatives, fulfilling a Malaysian appeal a nd adhering to UN Security Council Resolution 1373. Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has initiated a swift probe into the oversight, vowing to penalise culprits, while underscoring Baghdad's steadfast solidarity with Lebanese and Palestinian causes amid ongoing assaults. A legislator aligned with Iraq's Kataeb Hezbollah faction lambasted the administration for recklessness, deeming it a puppet regime undermining national autonomy. The Central Bank's interim deputy governor has directed the removal of the offending entries, with a revised gazette forthcoming. Neither Hezbollah nor the Houthis commented promptly.

The War in Gaza: Israel set to open the Rafah crossing in coordination with Egypt; Remains that Hamas returned found not to be those of Israeli captives, Israel confirms
On 03 December, the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT), an Israeli military arm that oversees humanitarian matters, stated that the opening of the Rafah crossing will be coordinated with Egypt, under the supervision of the European Union mission. The opening of the Rafah crossing would allow thousands of Palestinians who need medical care to leave the enclave through Egypt. According to the UN, at least 16,500 patients in Gaza need medical care outside of the enclave. Before the war, the crossing was the sole exit point for most Gazans and was a key entry point for aid. Under Trump's 20-point plan, the Rafah crossing was meant to reopen both ways. However, since the October ceasefire, Israel has kept it closed, insisting Hamas must first comply with the deal to return all remaining hostages, alive or dead. Islamic Jihad, a Palestinian militant group allied with Hamas, has joined the search for the last remaining deceased Israeli hostages. The announcement came after forensic examinations revealed that the remains that Hamas handed over on 02 December did not belong to the previous two deceased captives, an Israeli police officer and a Thai agricultural worker.

The War in Gaza: Hamas to hand over the remains of the last two hostages in Gaza
On 02 December, Hamas stated that it is set to hand over the remains of the last two hostages still in Gaza. Israel responded that it was preparing to receive the "findings," and that forensic testing would be done after a transfer via the Red Cross to Israeli forces in Gaza. The two remaining deceased hostages are Israeli police officer Ran Gvili and Thai national Sudthisak Rinthalak, both kidnapped on 7 October.

AFRICA THIS WEEK
Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda: US President Trump hosts the foreign ministers of both countries to operationalise the peace deal signed in June
On 4 December, US President Donald Trump hosted the foreign ministers of Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo in Washington to stabilise eastern Congo. The meeting seeks to operationalise a US-brokered peace deal signed in June and to reinforce an economic integration compact agreed last month. Critics argue that Washington has so far only "put a pin in the conflict" without resolving its deeper political and ethnic drivers. Tensions remain acute as the Congolese army and the M23 rebel group traded accusations of violating the latest ceasefire. Congolese officials insist recent clashes are "proof that Rwanda doesn't want peace." Rwanda denies backing M23, while UN experts say Kigali maintains "command and control" over the rebels. Rwanda's Minister for Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation noted, "We hope that, after the signing, we will see improvement on the ground."

Sudan: RSF claims capturing key oil-producing town of Babanusa; Sudan's army rejects the claim
On 01 December, Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) claimed to have seized complete control of Babanusa, a key transport hub in oil-producing West Kordofan state. The RSF described the takeover as a defensive "liberation" after repelling an attack by Sudan's army, which it called a "violation of a humanitarian truce." The army immediately disputed the claim, stating that it still holds parts of the town. It also accused the RSF of continuous attacks despite RSF commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo's unilateral ceasefire declaration. The army dismissed the ceasefire declaration as a political ploy to mask troop movements and foreign support. Previously, the Quad (US, UAE, Egypt and Saudi Arabia) proposed a three-month truce, but it collapsed as the RSF launched drone strikes after accepting the plan.

EUROPE THIS WEEK
The War in Ukraine: Russia says it is "encouraged" by progress in talks with the US; IAEA warns of new damage to Chernobyl Nuclear Plant's protective shield
On 06 December, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) warned that the protective steel shelter built over the reactors at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant in Ukraine was intended to contain radioactive material from the 1986 disaster. A drone strike has damaged it. The damage, assessed during an inspection last week, has reportedly compromised the shelter's "primary safety functions," including its ability to confine radiation. While no radiation leak has yet been detected, the IAEA stressed that full restoration is now essential to ensure long-term nuclear safety at the site. Meanwhile, the Kremlin announced that Russia is "encouraged" by recent talks with the United States over the war in Ukraine and signalled readiness to engage further. It is seen as a potential reopening of diplomatic channels after months of hostilities. The talks reportedly lasted five hours, during which Russia accepted some elements of a US-drafted peace proposal while continuing to insist on full control over Ukraine's Donbas region. Despite the optimistic tone from Moscow, Ukraine remains deeply sceptical about any deal that could compromise its sovereignty.

The War in Ukraine: Kyiv insists on "real peace, not appeasement"; Talks continue amid ongoing uncertainty
On 04 December, in a meeting of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), Ukraine's Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha declared that Ukraine sought "real peace, not appeasement" with Russia, warning against repeating the mistakes of past diplomatic surrendering such as the 1938 Munich Agreement. Foreign Minister Sybiha thanked the United States for backing peace efforts and said Kyiv would pursue every opportunity to end the war under terms that respect its sovereignty. Meanwhile, diplomatic engagement continues: the US-proposed peace framework remains under review, and negotiators from Ukraine and allies are preparing next steps.

The UK and Russia: London imposes new sanctions on Moscow and the GRU over the "reckless" assassination attempt on a former Russian spy
On 04 December, a UK public enquiry concluded that Russian President Vladimir Putin must have ordered the 2018 Novichok nerve agent attack on Russian double agent Sergei Skripal, in a "reckless" display of power that led to the death of an innocent woman. On 04 March 2018, former Russian military intelligence officer and British double agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia were poisoned in Salisbury, England, with the Russian-developed Novichok nerve agent A-234, a deadly chemical weapon. The highly persistent agent was smeared on the front-door handle of Skripal's home. Both victims collapsed on a public bench, were hospitalized in critical condition, and eventually recovered. The UK has responded with new sanctions against Russia, including the entire GRU military intelligence agency. The Russian ambassador was also summoned to provide an explanation for the inquiry's findings and to address what it described as Moscow's "ongoing campaign of hostile activity" against London. Russia has persistently denied the accusations as "anti-Russian propaganda," and has not responded to the latest developments.

The War in Ukraine: President Putin accepts parts of the US peace proposal as Kyiv prepares for Brussels talks
On 03 December, the Kremlin announced that President Vladimir Putin had accepted parts of the US proposals aimed at ending the war in Ukraine, while rejecting others, signalling that Moscow remains open to further negotiations. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov called the exchange a "normal working process," and said expert-level talks will continue before any high-level agreement. In response, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that senior negotiator Rustem Umerov will travel to Brussels to brief European security advisers on the Moscow talks, and subsequently head to the United States for further discussions. Despite this development, Russia's refusal to compromise on core territorial demands, particularly control over occupied regions, remains a key obstacle for Kyiv and its Western partners.

The War in Ukraine: Peace talks underway, even as Russia reports new territorial gains
On 02 December, Reuters reported that a United States delegation led by envoy Steve Witkoff and adviser Jared Kushner arrived in Moscow to meet with Vladimir Putin to discuss a possible end to the war in Ukraine. According to the report, the delegation is holding talks directly with the Russian President as part of an effort to explore whether conditions exist for a negotiated settlement. Meanwhile, according to another Reuters report on 01 December, the Russian military leaders briefed Putin on what they called the liberation of Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region and Vovchansk in the Kharkiv region, and portrayed the developments as significant battlefield victories. Ukraine has not confirmed the loss of either location.

Germany and China: Foreign Minister to visit Beijing amid "de-risking"
On 02 December, Reuters reported that the German Foreign Minister will visit China from 08 to 09 December. This visit comes as the European Union aims to 'de-risk' its economic ties with China. The Foreign Minister's meeting was cancelled earlier due to a row over China's export curbs on Chips and rare earths. In its upcoming economic security doctrine, the European Commission stated that it will review its trade defence arsenal and decide whether it must do more to address China. With China as the central policy focus, the document expresses concern about increasing European reliance on critical minerals to drive the green and digital transitions and about unfair competition. Last week, Germany reactivated its "de-risking push" by establishing an expert committee to advise Parliament on "security-relevant trade relations" with China.

AMERICAS THIS WEEK
Honduras: Presidential candidate accuses US President Donald Trump of election tampering
On 06 November, Reuters reported that Salvador Nasralla, a three-time presidential candidate in Honduras, stated that last-minute interference from US President Donald Trump tampered with the election. Weeks before the election, President Trump wrote on social media, "I hope the people of Honduras vote for Freedom and Democracy, and elect Tito Asfura, President!" and called Nasralla a "borderline communist". The latest election result shows that with 87 per cent of the ballot count, Nasaralla trails Asfura by 39.38 per cent to Asfura's 40.27 per cent. Honduras's electoral authority has also reported that 17 per cent of ballots have inconsistencies and will be reviewed.

The US: President Trump releases the US National Security Strategy; places the Western Hemisphere at the core; reduces emphasis on countering China and Russia, and takes a firm stance on Europe
On 05 December, the newly released National Security Strategy, published by every new administration and guiding the work of various government agencies, outlined President Trump's vision of "flexible realism." The strategy places the Western Hemisphere at the core of US foreign policy priorities, describing the shift as a "'Trump Corollary' to the Monroe Doctrine." The 29-page document states that the United States will "restore American preeminence" in the region, strengthen its military posture in the Indo-Pacific, and potentially reassess relations with Europe. It seeks to redefine US global engagement through an "America First" framework, departing from the post–World War II alliance-based order, reported Reuters. The document notes: "President Trump's foreign policy is pragmatic without being 'pragmatist,' realistic without being 'realist,' principled without being 'idealistic,' muscular without being 'hawkish,' and restrained without being 'dovish.'" News reports highlight reduced emphasis on countering China and Russia, and a firm stance on Europe. According to the New York Times, the approach reflects a broader commitment to avoid military entanglements while prioritising economic interests.

US and Brazil: President Luiz expects further tariff cuts as he describes the call with President Trump as "extraordinary"
On 03 December, Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva described his phone call with US President Donald Trump as "extraordinary" and said he expects further tariff cuts on Brazilian products. Following the conversation on 02 December, President Lula said, "We are close to hearing good news from the US" and added that they agreed to cooperate in combating organised crime. This comes after President Trump removed additional tariffs last month, which were initially imposed as a punitive measure against Brazil over the prosecution of former President Jair Bolsonaro.

HISTORY THIS WEEK
02 December 1823: President Monroe delivers foreign policy principles to Congress, later known as the Monroe Doctrine
On 02 December 1823, US President James Monroe delivered his famous message to Congress that became the Monroe Doctrine, a defining pillar of American foreign policy. President Monroe announced the principles in his speech, which later became known as the Monroe Doctrine. Framed against the backdrop of European colonial ambitions in Latin America, the doctrine declared that the Western Hemisphere was no longer open to colonization. He also warned European powers against interfering in the affairs of newly independent states. President Monroe's statement was driven by two key concerns like protecting emerging Latin American republics from the return of Spanish or other European rule and preventing Europe from expanding its political influence in the Americas during a volatile post-Napoleonic era. Though initially symbolic, the Monroe Doctrine later evolved into a central principle shaping US engagement in the region. It invoked diplomacy, strategy, and debates on sovereignty.

02 December 1804: Napoleon Bonaparte crowns himself as the Emperor of France
On 02 December 1804, Napoleon Bonaparte seized the imperial crown from Pope Pius VII and crowned himself Emperor of the French, proclaiming, "I crown myself." This symbolized the Revolution's radical break with monarchy and its blending of republican ideals with autocratic ambition. Attended by 1,000 dignitaries, the lavish ceremony heralded the Napoleonic Empire and reshaped Europe amid ongoing wars. Exactly one year later, on 02 December 1805, Napoleon sealed his legend at the Battle of Austerlitz, the "Battle of the Three Emperors." This strategy not only avenged coronation sceptics but crowned Napoleon as Europe's master, igniting the Continental System and redrawing maps for a generation.

About the authors

Tanvi Harendra is an undergraduate student double-majoring in BSc Clinical Psychology and BA Political Science at the School of Liberal Arts, Alliance University, Bengaluru. Sunidhi Sampige is a postgraduate student in M A Diplomacy, Law and Business at the Jindal School of International Affairs, OP Jindal Global University, Sonipat

Lekshmi MK is pursuing postgraduation in the Department of Political Science, Madras Christian College, Chennai, and is also a Research Assistant at the National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bengaluru.

R Preetha is pursuing postgraduation in the Department of International Studies, Stella Maris College, Chennai, and is also a Research Assistant at the National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bengaluru.

Brighty Ann Sarah and R Preetha are postgraduate students at the Department of International Studies, Stella Maris College, Chennai. Lekshmi MK is a postgraduate student at the Department of Political Science, Madras Christian College, Chennai. Santhiya M and Aparna A Nair are undergraduate students at the Department of Political Science, Madras Christian College, Chennai. M Kejia is an undergraduate student at the Department of Political Science and International Relations, Pondicherry University, Pondicherry.

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