CWA # 1998
Instability in Sudan
Response to the genocide call and the threats of a regional spillover

Conflict Weekly #321, 27 February 2026

Anu Maria Joseph
27 February 2026
Photo Source:

What happened this week?
On 23 February, the Chadian government closed the eastern border with Sudan after several soldiers and civilians were killed in recent clashes. Chad's Minister of Communications, Mahamat Gassim Cherif, said that the decision was made after  “repeated incursions and violations committed by the forces involved in the conflict in Sudan on Chadian territory." He added: The closure “aims to prevent any risk of the conflict spreading to our soil, to protect our fellow citizens and refugee populations, and to guarantee the stability and territorial integrity of our country."

On 21 February, during a fight between Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and militias linked to the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) in the border town of Tina, five Chadian soldiers and three civilians were killed. Meanwhile, on 22 February, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) led government condemned Uganda for hosting the head of the RSF, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, as an "insult" to the Sudanese people. Sudan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated: “This unprecedented step insults humanity before it insults the Sudanese people, and at the same time, it disregards the lives of innocent people killed due to the behaviour of Hemedti and his terrorist militia."

The development also came after the UNSC imposed new sanctions on four RSF leaders over atrocities in el-Fasher.

What are the issues?
Sudan: A genocide call, regional tensions and limited international response
During the previous week, a UN fact-finding mission in its report accused the RSF of carrying out mass killings in el-Fasher in October 2025, which pointed to a genocide. According to the report, more than 6,000 people were killed in three days during the siege. Following the capture of the city, the entire Darfur region came under the RSF. It also signalled the RSF's consolidation of a parallel government and strategic upper hand in the war.

Since December 2025, the Sudanese civil war has moved closer to the Chadian border, prompting regional tensions. Since the beginning of the war, Chad has taken in over one million refugees. The border communities, especially Zaghawas, belonging to the same ethnic group but divided by the Chad-Sudan border, have had different positions on the Sudanese civil war. Ethnic tensions and clashes are common among the Zaghawa communities of Chad and Sudan.  DW reported that the RSF fighters pursued the rival factions into clashes along the border. The Sudanese non-Arab Zaghawa ethnic group supports the SAF and has been a major target of the RSF atrocities in Darfur. Additionally, Chad has been accused by the SAF of supplying weapons from the UAE to the RSF, which the country has denied.

Further, the international genocide calls in Sudan came after three years of violent conflict between the RSF and the SAF, which is on the brink of dividing the country. Besides the call and sanctions, international actors and bodies have been unable to prevent the continuing human rights atrocities. Besides, the UAE and Iran are allegedly supporting the RSF and the SAF with weapon supply. The abundant flow of weapons, despite the UN arms embargo, has given the warring parties an incentive to disregard sanctions and condemnations and continue the violence.

What does it mean?
The latest development along the Sudan-Chad border highlights how the warring sides are taking tactical advantage of the border tensions to gain the upper hand. Chad's latest move to close the border points to a precaution to avoid the regional spillover of the war. However, ethnic tensions along the Chad border are not limited to Chad; they are also common along the Sudan-Ethiopia and Sudan-South Sudan borders. The warring sides may likely carryout similar moves along the other vulnerable borders, which highlights growing concerns that the Sudanese civil war is destabilising the region.

Further, the slow pace of international response to the RSF's genocide in Sudan points to ineffective international institutions, a lack of interest and the failure of existing mechanisms to prevent and stop another genocide in Darfur.


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